For the time being, I am focusing on Draft Kings.  If you would like weekly or seasonal advice for other formats, please post in the Comments below or DM on twitter to @illinisjc

Here is my initial list of targets for Draft Kings games this weekend.  Many of these guys are profiled in my prior two postings listing driver targets.  I've added a few words on the new names appearing here for the first time.  I'll update this list after the Duals when we see more of how the cars look on track and know everyone's starting position:

• Brad Keselowski $10,400 -- profiled below; solidified spot with a win in the Clash
• Denny Hamlin $9,800 -- profiled below; 2nd starting position is a concern given the risk of a big loss for place differential if he were to end up in the "big one"
• Joey Logano $9,600 -- profiled below; also looked strong in the Clash
• Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. $8,900 -- profiled below 
• Clint Bowyer $8,200 -- profiled below
• Aric Almirola $7,700 -- profiled below
• Trevor Bayne $6,900 -- profiled below
• Ryan Newman $6,600 -- Top 20 in 4 of last 5 Daytona races
• Kasey Kahne $6,500 -- Top 20 in 3 of last 4 Daytona races; now with 95 team, which has run well lately at Daytona
• David Ragan $6,200 -- Two plate track wins, including one at Daytona; but he tends to do better in the July race and not as well in the 500
• AJ Allmendinger $5,900 -- profiled below; likely lock button as long as he does not start too close to the front of the field
• Michael McDowell $5,800 -- Top 15 finish and completed all laps in last 4 Daytona races; now with Front Row Motorsports, which has two series wins, both at plate tracks
• Brendan Gaughan $5,200 -- Ran the two Daytona races in the same #75 car for Beard Motorsports last year and finished 11th in the 500 and 7th in July.
• AVOID Alex Bowman $7,500 -- Way too much risk for a place differential loss starting from the 1st position.  And he does not have a lengthy history of success at Daytona.

​Pic from www.teampenske.com

​A few quick thoughts after watching the Clash today.

• Handling will be a major factor during the 500.  With only 17 cars out there today, you could still see many of the cars really struggling to stay pointed in the right direction.  The 42 of Kyle Larson in particular seemed on the edge of control the whole race and he almost wrecked several times before the last lap incident.  On the flip side, the 2 of Brad Keselowski and 22 of Joey Logano looked pretty solid throughout.
• It seemed like it was easier than the last few years to get a run on the car in front and complete a pass.  (At least until that long single file run late in the race.)  It's unclear what this could mean for the race.  It's possible someone decides to go back to an older strategy of riding around at the back of the draft the first half of the race in hopes of avoiding the "big one."
• The Fords look strong once again at a plate track, sweeping the top four finishing spots.  Remember, Fords finished 1st & 2nd in both Daytona races last year.  And a Ford car has won the last six plate track races.  Fords have shown very, very strong in those last six races:
  • October 2017 Talledaga - Fords finished 1st, 3rd, 4th & 5th
  • July 2017 Daytona - Fords finished 1st & 2nd
  • May 2017 Talledega - Fords finished 1st, 4th, 6th & 7th
  • Feb 2017 Daytona - Fords finished 1st & 2nd
  • October 2016 Talledaga - Fords finished 1st, 2nd & 5th
  • July 2016 Daytona - Fords finished 1st, 3rd, 4th & 5th
• The wreck at the end shows, once again, why playing fantasy games for plate track races is a crap shoot.  A number of drivers looked like they were having a real good run, only to have it ruined because they got caught up in a large wreck through no fault of their own.  I just hate to see those wrecks -- both as a fan and also a fantasy racing player -- but they are a fact of like at the plate tracks.  
• I continue to like several drivers I mentioned earlier this week -- particularly Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin and Austin Dillon.  We'll also need to be careful not to downgrade Stenhouse too much.  He got a tough penalty call for passing below the double yellow line, but still looked pretty fast when he was in the lead pack.

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Pic from Nascar.com

With cars hitting the track today, I wanted to cover a few more drivers to target for the Daytona 500.

• Clint Bowyer -- Clint finished second in the most recent Daytona race in July 2017.  Dating back to 2013, he has finished in the Top 10 in six of ten races.  And he has completed all the laps in seven of those ten races.  This is a strong plate track profile.
• Denny Hamlin -- Hamlin has struggled lately at Daytona, finishing 17th, 17th and 24th in the last three races.  But the five race stretch before that was amazing.  Hamlin won the Daytona 500 in 2016.  And leading up to that were finishes of 3rd, 4th, 6th and 2nd.  So, he had a string of five Daytona races where he finished in the Top 6.  That flags him as a target to win the race each time out at Daytona.
• Austin Dillon -- Like Hamlin, Austin Dillon struggled at Daytona in 2017, with finishes of 19th and 36th.  But coming into 2017, Dillon had one of the better Daytona records.  He finished all the laps in the six prior Daytona races and finished in the Top 10 in five of those six races.  What an amazing scene it would be if the #3 were back in Victory Lane at Daytona.
• Trevor Bayne -- Here's a dark horse and contrarian pick to consider.  Bayne won the Daytona 500 all the way back in February 2011 while driving for the Wood Brothers.  Since joining Rousch Fenway in 2015, he has a mixed Daytona record.  But it is one to consider if you're looking for a lower owned driver.  He has three Top 10 finishes in the last five Daytona races and he has finished all the laps in five of the last six races.

As I mentioned in another post, guys like Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick are always going to be strong choices.  However, it usually doesn't make sense to use them at plate tracks because of the draft equalizer and the likelihood of getting caught up in "the big one".  They simply don't have the same advantages over the field that they have at other tracks.  Especially in leagues where you can use a driver only a limited amount of times during the season, I would shy away from the top championship contenders at Daytona where luck (and being in the wrong place at the wrong time) play such a big role.

With cars hitting the track for practice, qualifying and "The Clash" this coming weekend, it's time to start thinking about lineups for the Daytona 500.  First a few general concepts to remember for plate track races:

• There is always a "big one," or two, or three.  These races are notorious for having one or more huge crashes that can take out a dozen cars or more.  Part of the key to approaching a plate track race is finding guys who have a tendency to survive to the end of the race.
• Don't focus too much on practice speeds.  In practice this week, so much depends on what the drivers are working on.  Some (like Jimmie Johnson) are notorious for working on single car runs and will be at the bottom of the speed chart because of that.  Others just want to preserve their engine and other parts, so don't run much at all.  And some like to simulate race conditions and get a lot of drafting practice.  If they hit it just right, they will post a great lap time, but probably overstate their true speed and handling comfort relative to the field.  By and large, you can ignore it all and just enjoy the sight and sound of cars back on the track.  If you take anything from it, listen carefully to driver interviews or commentary to see who feels the most comfortable with their car.
• Honestly, I hate doing fantasy games for plate track races.  There is so much that is outside the driver's control and random chance plays just as much a role as anything else.  But it's been a long off-season and it's the Daytona 500, so even if it's DFS, you still can't resist, right.  I sure can't.
• Because of what I just said, I would generally advise to stay away from the big names at plate tracks.  They just don't have as big of a built in advantage as they do at other tracks because they are just as likely to get caught up in a wreck as anyone else.  And, as the saying goes, the draft is the great equalizer.  It allows the middle and lower tier teams to race right up aside the big boys.  Remember this especially in games where you have limits on the number of times you can use a driver during the season -- like the new NASCAR Fantasy Live game.  Don't burn one of your races for a top driver at a plate track.

With that said, here are a couple of drivers to focus on this coming week.  We'll add more driver targets and analysis in the coming days:

• Aric Almirola -- Been very strong at Daytona in recent years.  Won the July 2014 rain-shortened race.  Finished in the Top 15 and completed all the laps in 5 of the last 6 races at Daytona.  Did not complete all the laps in July 2015 because he got caught up in the "big one" during that race.  CAUTION -- first race with a new team, so will have to hope they have all the kinks worked out.
  
• AJ Allmendinger -- Finished 3rd in the Daytona 500 last year and 8th in the July race.  Has completed all the laps in the last 6 races at Daytona.  He has qualified poorly for most recent races, but finished the entire race and done pretty well.
  
• Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. -- Won the July race last year.  Has completed all of the laps in 9 of his 11 Cup Series starts at Daytona.  He also won at the other plate track (Talladega) last year and has a very strong record of completing all the laps there as well.  In fact, you would have to say the plate tracks are clearly his best tracks.  CAUTION -- he has finished much better in the July race than the 500. 
• Joey Logano -- Won the Daytona 500 in 2015.  After the utter disappointment of 2017, I have to imagine this team is absolutely bound and determined to come out of the box firing in 2018.  He has completed all the laps in 11 of the last 13 Daytona races and has Top 10 finishes in 7 of those 13 races.  He also has two Talladega wins in the last three years.  So he has a very strong plate track profile.

 

NASCAR finally announced the new format for its Fantasy Live game.  Gone are the salary caps and bonus points for laps led and fastest laps.  Now you can use any driver you want in a particular week, but you may only use each driver ten times for the entire season.  So, for example, you could use Jimmie Johnson as one of your five drivers for the first ten races, but then you could not use him again for the remainder of the season.  The link to NASCAR's announcement page is at the bottom of this post.  Here is a bullet point list of the new format:

• No salary cap as in prior seasons
• Select any combination of five drivers for your active roster
• However, you can use each driver only a total of ten times for the season
• There is a sixth reserve or "garage spot" on your roster.  You can swap your garage driver with an active driver at any time before the start of the final stage of the race.  So, if you started Kyle Larson, but he wrecks ten laps into the race, you can replace him in your active roster with whatever driver you had selected for your reserve/garage spot.
• Each driver on your active roster earns the same number of points as they do in the real world.  So, you now get credit for stage points, etc. won by the drivers you roster.
• Bonus points are available for predicting the pole winner, stage winners, race winner and winning manufacturer.
• No bonus points for laps led or fastest laps as in prior seasons.

​www.nascar.com/news-media/2018/02/05/nascar-fantasy-live-faq-how-game-works/

PIC -- www.teampenske.com

​Brad Keselowski had a very strong 2017 season.  He made the playoffs once again and advanced all the way to the championship race, only to finish behind the three other championship contenders.  Along the way, Brad continued his trademark outspoken approach -- challenging NASCAR about Toyota's perceived advantages and more.  It will be interesting to watch more fireworks fly this year if Chevrolet's new chassis shows improved speed as well.

Let's dig into some of Brad's numbers from 2017.  He had three wins -- at Atlanta, Martinsville and Talladega.  He had a total of 15 Top 5 finishes and 21 Top 10 finishes.  He finished outside the Top 20 seven times.  All in all, it was a solid but not spectacular season.  His team returns intact in 2018, with the innovative and gambling Paul Wolfe as crew chief.

Now let's look at four tracks where Brad typically excels and where you should look to lock him into your lineups in 2018.  First is Martinsville.  In 2017, Brad won the Spring race and finished 4th in the Fall.  He led over 100 laps in each race.  And, in 2016, he finished 2nd and 5th at Martinsville, so this has been a very strong track over the last two years.  Next is Talladega, where Brad has wins in 2014, 2016 and 2017.  This is a track where it is not uncommon to see the 2 car out front switching from one lane to the next to stay out front.  It has worked well and Brad has driven to Victory Lane in three of the last four years.  That's downright dominance at a plate track.  Next is Pocono.  Brad finished 5th in both races there in 2017.  In 2016, he finished 2nd and 3rd.  I feel like this is a track where Paul Wolfe comes into play.  It's such a long track that a car running near the front can make a green flag pit stop without losing a lap.  That gives an aggressive crew chief strategy options to get a good (but not great) car into Victory Lane.  And Wolfe is one of the best at capitalizing in those situations.  Finally, it's Las Vegas.  Note there will now be two races at Las Vegas -- an early season Spring race and a September race that opens the playoffs.  This should be a good thing for the 2 car because the numbers say this is a great track for Brad.  In the last five races there, he has two wins (in 2016 and 2014) to go along with a 3rd, 5th and 7th.  And, Brad led laps in each of those five races, including 89 laps led in 2017.  But this one makes me a bit nervous if Toyota (and now Chevy) have an advantage with their new chassis.  (Ford is yet to upgrade its chassis.)  While those advantages can be overcome at the plate tracks and tracks where innovative pit strategy is an option, there is really no place to hide at a mile and a half track.  The first Vegas race is the third race of the season, so it will be too early to tell for sure where things stand.  But do keep an eye on that story line before you plug in Brad at Las Vegas in week three.

I do want to mention one more track and that's Kentucky.  Brad faltered there last year, crashing out about a third of the way through the race and finishing 39th.  In the prior three years, however, he had two wins and well over 300 laps led.  But, at this point, we have no idea what any of those prior results mean.  The track was repaved prior to the 2016 race and then repaved again prior to the 2017 race.  So keep Brad in the back of your mind for Kentucky and take a look at qualifying and practice speeds to help you decide what to do.  At one time, Brad was pretty dominant on the old surface, so it's one to keep in mind.

Photo -- LAT Photographic and Autoweek.com

Aside -- I just love this Lowe's paint scheme.

Jimmie Johnson had a very rocky and unpredictable 2017 season.  That is about the worst thing one could say about an elite level driver for fantasy purposes.  Let's look at some of the numbers to show just how erratic things were.

Johnson won races at Texas, Bristol and Dover.  His Texas and Dover wins came as no surprise because historically those are two of his strongest tracks (see below).  In the remaining 33 races, however, Johnson had only one other Top 5 finish (3rd in the October race at Dover).  And, for the entire year, Johnson had only eleven Top 10 finishes.  On the flip side, he finished outside the Top 20 twelve times.  It's incredible to think that one of the best drivers and teams in the history of NASCAR would be more likely to finish outside the Top 20 than in the Top 10.  But that is what happened with the 48 team last year.

Can we expect an all around improvement in 2018?  I'm not convinced that we can due to all the change and uncertainty that has happened in the off-season.  First, the Chevy teams are all switching to a new chassis.  While that may ultimately lead to more speed -- as the Toyota chassis update did -- there is likely to be at least some struggle and a learning curve early in the season.  And, within Hendrick Motorsports, there has been a near complete makeover, with Johnson now being teammates with a stable of three young but talented drivers -- Chase Elliott, William Byron and Alex Bowman.  I have to imagine something will be lost without the input of accomplished race winning drivers Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kasey Kahne, both of whom were Johnson's teammates last year.

So what to do with Johnson for our fantasy games in 2018?  At this point, I have to recommend limiting his use to the tracks where he has historically dominated.  Things could change if the team shows marked improvement in speed at some point in 2018, but for now, I would stick with the tracks he loves.  Here are three to focus on: (1) Dover -- In the last three Dover races, Johnson has finished 3rd, 1st and 7th.  In the last ten races there, he has four wins and seven finishes inside the Top 7.  Johnson will probably be a threat to win every Dover race until the day he retires.  (2) Texas -- Johnson has won four of the last seven and six of the last eleven races at Texas Motor Speedway.  In 29 Texas races during his Cup Series career, Johnson has seven wins, another five second place finishes, and a total of twenty-one Top 10 finishes.  He has finished outside the Top 20 only four times.  Simply amazing numbers and the dominance shows no signs of slowing at this track.  (3)  Charlotte -- Finally comes a track that is just a 15-20 minute walk down the street from Hendrick Motorsports' complex in Concord, North Carolina.  Early in his career, Johnson simply manhandled the competition at CMS.  He won five of his first ten races there as a full-time Cup driver, led laps in each of those races and did not finish outside the Top 7.  His performance at CMS has been more uneven since then, but he has been very strong there the last two years.  During those four races, Johnson has a win in October 2016, to go along with 3rd and 7th place finishes.  In the one other race (the 2017 Coca Cola 600), Johnson ran out of gas a few miles from the finish while leading the race.  (Austin Dillon went on to win that race and take the #3 back to Victory Lane.)  Johnson always seems to bring a little something extra to those hometown Charlotte races.