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atlanta

2/24/2024

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Again shorter this week because many things are pretty obvious--

Don't have much to say about cash games. Like Daytona, we have numerous good cash game plays starting well back in the field. While new Atlanta hasn't been as crazy as Daytona or Talladega, I still think it's generally too risky to use guys starting at the very front of the field in cash games. One wrong move or push and it could be over. On Sunday, we have plenty of first tier drivers and cars starting from 21st on back and I see no reason why to reach higher than that for cash games.
In larger/multi-entry tournaments you do need to reach. We have seen passing be difficult and track position much more important at new Atlanta when compared to Daytona and Talladega. So, the best plays will go in that direction to gain leverage over the masses going with more conservative and chalky position difference plays. Here are some potential targets--
- Ryan Preece and Josh Berry - most will go with guys starting further back in this salary range, so these guys should be under 10-15% owned. They start in the more dominant outside row and can pay off with a T10 or so finish. Is it the most likely outcome? No. But it could be a tournament winning outcome if it does happen. Only use one of them in any given lineup.
- Ryan Blaney - in the four races at new Atlanta, Blaney has three T10 finishes and two stage wins. This shows he's likely to finish well and has a good chance of leading laps as well. He's well known as a drafting expert, but I think his ownership will be held in check (under 20% ?) by the risky 6th starting spot.
- William Byron and Alex Bowman - I can't quit the duo that finished 1-2 at Daytona last week. They're kind of in a no mans land starting too far forward to be considered position difference plays but also not close enough to the front to see an obvious path to leading laps. But with low tire wear, we can sometimes see differing pit strategies give guys in this middle range a chance to flip the script and end up in the lead -- i.e., if they pit during a late stage caution while others stay out for stage points and then pit at the stage break, for example. If they could somehow find their way out front, I doubt they'd give up that lead. And, at least in the case of Bowman, he does have some position difference upside from the 17th starting spot - not to mention it's ridiculous that any Hendrick car is $8,200. (Also hope these guys will come in around 15-20%.)
- I think the way to play it is to mix in 1-2 of these guys with the position difference chalk in a single entry tournament. In a 3 entry max, mix in 2-3 of these guys. And, in a mass multi-entry, mix in 3-4.

Bets

Bowman +130 over Bell -- It's essentially two equal cars and drivers so there's no reason for this to be significantly +.
Most of the stuff I play is earlier in the week so the lines are gone. The Bowman-Bell one is pretty current.

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daytona

2/16/2024

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Daytona 500

My notes will tend to be much shorter for the "plate track" races because the strategy is pretty apparent and I'm not giving out lineups.
For cash games, I see no reason to use anyone starting better than 31st. There are plenty of really solid options in those last 10 starting spots so take the conservative route and try to minimize your risk when the crashes happen.
- All of these guys are also in play for tournaments, but I wouldn't play them all together. Pick one or two who you think will be lower owned and then get different with the rest of your lineup. That's the only way to get leverage on the rest of the field.
To get different in tournaments, I like Ryan Preece and Martin Truex Jr. I'm guessing most go with noted plate track talents like Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace, AJ Allmendinger and Corey LaJoie in the 19-29 starting spot range, so this is a way to be a little different. Preece has a solid plate track record despite some wrecks and MTJ (and Toyota overall) looked really hooked up in the Duals on Thursday. (UPDATE - MTJ ownership is really high, so I might pivot to Allmendinger or Ross Chastain here for tournaments. Chris Buescher, who won the last race here at Daytona, also looks to be coming in at lesser ownership then I first thought.)
I also don't mind going a little further forward to guys like Brad Keselowski and William Byron although they obviously get riskier the farther forward they start. If you dare to go into the Top 10, I'd look at Austin Cindric and Alex Bowman because most going this far up will likely go with 3-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin.
Don't worry about using all your salary. There's no need to do so at plate tracks.
Post any questions in the comments.

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LET'S GO!!! I'm sure we're all incredibly excited to get the 2024 NASCAR season started. I'm planning to post once or twice during most weeks of the upcoming NASCAR season. I hope you'll follow along as we try to give ourselves the best chance to make some money in the DFS and betting markets.

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Web Site Status

6/10/2023

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Obviously I've been quiet the last few weeks. I just haven't had the right time to do all the preparation work and have time left over to do a write up before the race. I am going to try to get back on track with the Nashville race in a couple weeks. Please stay tuned and follow on Twitter @dfsnascarguy as I will send out a notice there when I update the site. Thanks!

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charlotte

5/19/2023

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Nothing from me for the All Star race. Will be back with Xfinity and Cup articles for Charlotte.

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darlington cup

5/13/2023

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A stars and scrubs approach worked for the Xfinity Series race and I might just go back to that for the Cup Series race. Here is who I'm focused on for cash games and most single entry tournaments--

Kyle Larson - Undeniable talent and should have a ton of confidence coming off his first Darlington win in the Xfinity Series on Saturday. He was the fastest on a real long run in practice and should have a tire management edge just as he did on Saturday.
Martin Truex - Few are as good on worn out, slick tracks and that's what we have here. He's got an awesome history at Darlington and he probably wins this race last Fall if he doesn't have a water pump issue. Starts from the pole and has the advantage of the first pit stall.
Denny Hamlin - Another Darlington master who has finished 1st or 2nd in three of the last six races here. This team is getting hot and looks to keep rolling on Sunday.
Kevin Harvick - A great alternative if you don't want to spend all the way up at three spots in the stars and scrubs approach. He didn't finish last Fall's race here because his car caught on fire with the rubber build up issue a number of the Fords had throughout the season. Before that, he had finished 9th or better in thirteen consecutive Darlington races. He knows how to preserve the tires and run a little lower alternate line that allows him to pass as a run goes on. I don't think he'll lead or run a lot of fastest laps, but he's a likely +10 position difference guy for under $9k.
Eric Jones - He won here last year and Darlington is by far his best track. But a lot of his success here came with Joe Gibbs racing and last Fall's win was his first good run in four starts in the #43 car. This team has struggled this year, so I don't think you can project him for anything more then a 15th-18th place finish.
Ryan Preece - Starts 32nd but didn't have as much speed fall off over the long run in practice as a lot of the other cars starting back here. So I think he'll be able to work his way forward over the course of the race and threaten for a Top 20 finish.
Corey LaJoie - Probably a lock button play starting 34th for only $5,400. In four races here with Spire, he has one wreck but finished 15th, 22nd and 24th the other three times. That works.
Noah Gragson - In his last four Xfinity Series races here, he had two wins and didn't finish worse then 4th. He was also 1st or 2nd at both stage breaks in all four of those races. So he was always fast and we know he is the kind of driver who loves to run the wall. So I'm good using him here starting 29th for $5,700 if it helps you get an extra front runner that you really like.

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Darlington Xfinity

5/12/2023

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Here are my tops targets for Saturday's Xfinity Series race, focusing on cash games and single entry tournaments--

Justin Allgaier - He's been the most consistent driver at Darlington over the long term in this series. He's finished inside the Top 10 in eight of the last nine races here. He also ranked 3rd in most practice metrics on Friday. Lock button for me.
John Hunter Nemechek - Ran well in the #26 Sam Hunt entry in both Darlington races last year. He's up in Joe Gibbs equipment and looked great on Friday topping many practice metrics and then winning the pole by over .1 seconds. Most likely to lead early.
Kyle Larson - He's also very tempting given the talent level and long term success at Darlington. He wasn't super fast in practice, but he didn't have too much fall off over a long run and will probably be able to save tire and run the wall better then anyone else in this field. Strong chance he dominates as the race goes on as long as he doesn't get crushed on pit road. The question is can he pay off the $13k salary.
Ryan Truex - He challenged Nemechek in practice times and is coming off a dominant win at Dover. I have my doubts he can do it again and there's risk since he starts 2nd. But that stop watch doesn't lie and we should have similar conditions on Saturday.

I don't feel like any driver in the mid tier is a must have. Ty Dillon, Riley Herbst, Parker Klingerman and Corey Heim all could be decent plays, but I also don't fear any of them killing me if I don't have them. So I'm leaning toward a stars and scrubs lineup with three of the guys above and three salary savers from this list--

Blaine Perkins - Didn't make a qualifying run because of a mechanical issue, but this is a decent team so I don't expect they'll have any problem having the car ready to go on Saturday. I could see him finishing around 20th.
Joe Graf Jr - Not a guy I go to in cash games often, but the price and starting spot are great here. He, too, didn't make a Q run because they had to fix a fluid leak. That seems like an easy enough fix to leave little doubt he'll be good to go on Saturday. And his practice times were Top 20ish, so he should be able to put up a good +10-15 position difference.
Brennan Poole - All of the JD Motorsports cars have struggled to find speed this season, but Poole is a decent and experienced driver who has been the most consistent on that team. Starting 35th for only $5k is a strong value play.
Gray Gaulding - Trust the driver more then the car. Great starting spot and salary combo.
Kyle Sieg - The Sieg cars (Kyle and Graf) will probably be the fastest of this group. But the drivers are also the most risky. Kyle has had a number of strong runs though this year.

Good luck.

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darlington

5/11/2023

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With same day qualifying, I probably won't have time to post anything for Friday's Truck Series race. But I plan to have write-ups posted for Xfinity on Friday night and Cup on Saturday night. Good luck this weekend.

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Kansas Cup

5/6/2023

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This is a difficult slate because so many good arguments can be made to play most of the guys starting in the Top 12 or so. I'm going to go at this article backwards and talk first about some cheaper position difference options I like and then move up to the front runners--

A.J. Allmendinger - He finished 18th (20th in green flag speed) earlier this season at Las Vegas and Noah Gragson drove this car to 18th and 18th place finishes at Kansas last season. If you plug in a 20th place finish for Allmendinger on Sunday, you get to 30 DK points and the roughly 5x return we're looking for.
Todd Gilliland - He remains dirt cheap and is easily the best sub-$6k option on the board. I don't expect a whole lot from him on Sunday, but he's got a super safe floor starting 32nd and should be able to pick up some spots to the mid-20s over the back markers and cars that do not finish.
Josh Berry - I'm obviously going to like a Hendrick car starting 29th for under $8k. Berry isn't his best at 1.5 mile tracks, but he's got enough experience under his belt to get this thing at least +10 position difference with the potential for a bit more.
Ricky Stenhouse - I don't love this as Stenhouse remains a pretty risky profile, but he's got a super safe floor starting 33rd and a decent upside for only $7k. If you need the extra $700 to pay for your front runner, I could see going to Stenhouse instead of Berry.
Justin Haley - I'd normally list him higher but his practice lap times were God awful. That has me concerned.

Now to the front runners--

Kyle Larson - Showed really strong long run speed in practice. He was great at Las Vegas earlier this year and was incredibly consistent at 1.5 mile tracks last season. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him lead 100+ laps on Sunday.
William Byron - He dominated Las Vegas earlier this year and was also really strong at 1.5 mile tracks last season. His speed was comparable to Larson in practice, although he did not do quite as long of a run because he clipped the wall. Can't go wrong with either (or both) of these guys.
Christopher Bell - Arguably his best track with 3rd and 5th place finishes last year. Strong in practice and some position difference upside from 12th.
Denny Hamlin - Hamlin had a great long run in practice and finished 2nd and 4th here last year. The one hesitation I have is the consistently awful pit stops. He just isn't gaining spots and often loses spots on pit road. He discussed it at length in his podcast this week and how it is killing their results. With so many other good options, it could be enough to look elsewhere.
Strong cases can also be made for Ross Chastain, Martin Truex and Tyler Reddick. This race really is wide open on Sunday. So I think one approach is to pivot away from entering a single lineup in a lot of cash games and instead enter several different lineups in tournaments. Do a Hendrick lineup. Do a Toyota/JGR lineup. Do a few combos. If you hit the lap leader combo that dominates the race you should do very well. Good luck!

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dover cup

4/29/2023

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Based on Sunday's weather forecast, it looks like this could be a washout with a Monday race. At the very least, we're going to have a green track with no rubber down and conditions nothing like practice. That's going to add to the unpredictable nature of things. Given all the uncertainty, I'm leaning very heavily on Dover history and want to be conservative. Here are the key targets:

Kyle Larson - He's been incredible at Dover including a 2nd place finish and 250+ laps led two years ago. He starts 18th so has plenty of position difference upside to go along with the potential of leading laps at some point. The only issue is the highest salary in the pool.
Denny Hamlin - He's got a win here in 2020 and arguably had the best car last year before his tire fell off leaving pit road at the end of Stage 1. He was climbing back through the field only to get heavy damage when Cody Ware spun out right in front of him.
Martin Truex - Truex had a really good car here last year as well and has a long history of success at Dover. He wrecked himself battling Ross Chastain on the last lap last year which dropped him from 4th to 12th. I really like his upside if we go into Monday when we might see some sun on the track.
Kevin Harvick - Eight straight Top 10 finishes at Dover -- including two wins and three times leading 200+ laps in those eight races. That said, I don't think he has the same lap leading upside of Larson, Hamlin or Truex, but I also think he's a safer play then any of them because he and his team don't make as many mistakes as the others.
Ross Chastain - Third last year and was running in the Top 5 for most of the race. Strong pit crew which will help with tire wear expected to be an issue. Ross can win anywhere and starting 14th with a sub-$10k salary is a very attractive option.
Kyle Busch - Could lead the race early starting from pole position, but how long can he hold it? A likely early competition caution adds to the risk. He did lead 103 laps last year, but hadn't come anywhere close to dominating at Dover since 2016 when he also led 100+ laps. I also have some concern that he's with RCR which performed really poorly in this race last year. Given that he got the pole based mostly on his win last week as opposed to speed this weekend, I'm feeling OK with a fade here -- although it's still not entirely comfortable.
Joey Logano - Starts 26th for only $8,800. He was crap here last year. And he's never led more then 16 laps here. With 400 laps in play, I think I'd rather go for someone I think can legitimately threaten to lead a chunk of laps and I don't see Logano doing that.
AJ Allmendinger - Long Dover history of finishes right around 20th place dating back to his JTG days. He was running inside the Top 15 last year before he had a brake failure late in Stage 3 and had to park the car. I view him as roughly the same play as Ryan Preece for $900 less salary.
Austin Dillon - I don't love it, but he's actually got a fairly decent history here and $6,300 is so cheap for someone who should be able to finish +10 position difference without much difficulty.
Todd Gilliland - He's been running very respectably of late and the 35th starting spot leaves him nowhere to go but up.

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