I started this blog to provide a casual, recreational level of fantasy NASCAR advice and discussion. I've been playing these contests for a number of years and am annoyed by lineup sellers and groups of players using the same lineup. I'm hoping to give the casual player some help in building solid lineups that can beat that annoying crowd most of the time. I'm not a "tout" and don't do this for a living, so proceed accordingly. I hope you enjoy the discussion here and Good Luck!
As with Xfinity, it's hard to get too deep without starting positions, but here are some notes and ideas about how I'm leaning heading into qualifying Sunday morning. I wouldn't go too crazy relying on practice times since it was their first exposure to the track and a short practice where most guys ran only about 15 laps. But it is some extra information.
Xfinity is really goofy this week.
First, pricing is crazy. There are way too many good cars/drivers priced under $6,500 to where it's pretty easy to stack the three studs -- Austin Cindric, AJ Allmendinger and Ty Gibbs -- with three cheaper guys and still make a really good lineup top to bottom. Whether we want to do that, or take a more balanced approach, will be determined by qualifying.
Second, we've got 40+ entries for 36 spots with race day qualifying. So we'll have a lot of cars that don't make the race and likely some decent cars that get a bad lap in qualifying and start towards the back. How qualifying shakes out will, in large part, determine how we want to build our lineups.
It's hard to know what will be most useful come Saturday afternoon, but here are some notes to help you sort things out after qualifying --
My cash game group is pretty small for The Glen on Sunday. Here it is:
Not a lot I'm seeing right now.
This is the first time the Trucks Series has come to Watkins Glen in over 20 years, so none of the drivers have any experience in the trucks at this track. A lot of them are running the ARCA race Friday night, so that will be something to look at and factor into our thinking for Saturday. It seems to me the pool of cash game drivers is pretty small for this race.
This is an interesting slate with a number of different ways to go. In the end, I think we've got some great plays in the $9-10k range, so I'm looking to load up on three of those guys and take my chances fading the most expensive drivers. The biggest risk with that approach is that one of the Kyles (Larson or Busch) dominates the race. On balance, I think the value in the $9-10k range is just too good to pass up.
The other tier I'm really focused on is the $7-8k range.
All in on C. Bell for the Xfinity race on Saturday. Joe Gibbs cars have won the last five New Hampshire Xfinity races and Bell has won the last two. He starts 14th, so offers position difference upside too even if he doesn't dominate the whole race. It helps Bell that there is a competition caution on Lap 20. He should be well inside the Top 10 for that restart.
Outside of the Gibbs cars, Josh Berry is my other favorite. He won the Martinsville race this year, which is another similar short, flat track -- albeit with much tighter corners. Josh is in the #1 Jr Motorsports car this weekend in place of the injured Michael Annett. He starts 21st and has +15 position difference upside with an outside chance to lead laps.
In the middle tier, there are some decent plays that could work, but I can't confidently say any of them will hit 5x value:
Punts are ugly:
We've got 400 miles of Cup Series racing Sunday from Atlanta. All recent races here have been 500 miles, so this is a little shorter. But I don't think that will have a ton of impact on our analysis. Here are my main targets heading into Sunday:
Saturday brings us 250 miles of Xfinity Series racing at Atlanta. Here are my top targets:
No trucks stuff from me today. Xfinity will be up late, late, late tonight.
I will try to post a quick update after qualifying.
Only 62 laps for the Cup race on Sunday, so not a whole lot out there for laps led or fastest laps. In addition, there are multiple pit stop strategies that could come into play so we're very unlikely to see anyone dominate and lead a bulk of the laps. Larson essentially did that at Sonoma, but that one had 90 laps so offered a good deal more points for laps led and fastest laps. So, the focus is more on finishing position and position difference points.
Obviously, a lot depends on qualifying spots. Here is my main target list heading into qualifying. But anyone driving for a good team can come into play if they qualify way worse then expected.
My name is Steve and I've won thousands playing NASCAR fantasy racing games. This blog will share my advice for enjoying and winning your fantasy racing games. I'm also a NASCAR writer at the motor sports website slicksandsticks.com