I'm skipping Xfinity and Trucks for Atlanta. There's too much uncertainty about what these races are going to look like and I'm not going to be able to watch practice on Saturday morning, so I've got no edge. I'm hoping to catch up on Cup practice and post something for the Cup race late Saturday night.

Cup Update--After watching practice and Saturday's races, I'm still at a point where I really don't like this race from a DFS (or real life) perspective. My advice is to play very light and try to do something a little different. Don't just play all the real chalky guys. I wouldn't go full super speedway/stack the back strategy, but I do think it's best to focus on position difference guys. I probably won't use anyone starting higher than 15th. Trying to guess lap leaders is tough and fastest laps were all spread throughout the field on Saturday. Good luck. Looking forward to a more normal race next week.

Here are my favorite options for Sunday--

• Love Martin Truex. He's been awesome at short, flat tracks, including Phoenix. Last year at Phoenix, he won one race and finished 2nd in the other. He led over 60 laps in both races and ran over 50 fastest laps both times. He's also at his best on sunny, hot, slick tracks -- which is what we should see Sunday.
• Great spot for Chase Elliott as well. He easily had the best car here in both races in 2020. He wasn't as dominant here last year, but you have to like the floor and upside from the 19th starting spot.
• Denny Hamlin was just amazing at short, flat tracks last year. He finished 3rd in both Phoenix races and ran over 35 fastest laps both times. He should battle Ryan Blaney for the early lead in this race.
• Ryan Blaney has been really fast this year with little to show for it. He hasn't been great at short, flat tracks, so I'm a little skeptical he can lead and dominate for an extended period on Sunday.
• Kevin Harvick might not be able to challenge for wins as he often did at Phoenix in the past, but he's still really, really good here. He's finished no worse than 8th here in the last two years, and I expect to see another Top 10 finish from the #4 on Sunday.
• Todd Gilliland will probably be a popular cheap punt play again. It is kind of silly that he continues to be priced the same as the Rick Ware cars. Gilliland at least has a hope of finishing on the lead lap.
• Ricky Stenhouse will be another popular play. His motor blew up on Saturday, but there should be no carry over effect into Sunday. He's good to go and has a pretty solid history at short, flat tracks. A Top 20 is a very realistic outcome.
• A.J. Allmendinger raced pretty well here Saturday and I think he'll finish inside the Top 20 on Sunday. 

Bets

• Denny Hamlin +900 to win (placed earlier this week)
• Austin Cindric +5000 to win (placed earlier this week)
• A.J. Allmendinger to win Group J (Buescher, Burton and Haley)

The scope of Kyle Larson's domination last year at the 1.5 mile lower wear tracks was just amazing. There was no one even close to him. So, for cash games this week, I'm going with Kyle and as many position difference guys as I can fit in. I just don't see things changing a whole lot.

Who are the position difference guys? Most are obvious, but here's my list of top plays--

• Kyle Busch - I'm a little worried about the quality of the back-up car, but you've got to trust that this Joe Gibbs team put together a good piece. At just over $10k starting from dead last, it's a pretty easy choice for the top spot here. That said, I do think you can fade Busch for leverage in tournaments because it's extremely unlikely he scores dominator points or sniffs the Top 5 finish. So we're talking a ceiling in the 60-65 point range.
• Chris Buescher - For the price, he slots in second here. Starting 27th, he's got a good +12-15 position difference upside for under $7k.
• Kurt Busch - Starts further back then Harvick and is a little cheaper, so he edges out the #4 car for third on my list.
• Kevin Harvick - It's still hard for me to get used to seeing him start so deep in the field and not be a factor on Sundays. A Top 10 is the goal here, but I'm not entirely convinced that's realistic without a lot of chaos.
• William Byron - Not really a true position difference guy, but I do think he's got a solid chance to finish in the Top 5 and could score dominator points. 

On the cheap end of things, I like Justin Haley, Corey LaJoie and Todd Gilliland.

• I've got Haley first because it looks like Kaulig is bringing some pretty good race cars to the track. At a minimum, they're faster then Spire, Front Row and the back markers.
• I don't love LaJoie or Gilliland, but they should be able to gain a couple of positions if they keep their cars clean.

Some H2H bets I like:

• Austin Dillon EV Brad Keselowski
• Austin Dillion -105 Kurt Busch
• Denny Hamlin +105 Tyler Reddick
• Denny Hamlin -135 Kyle Busch
• Chris Buescher -155 Ty Dillon
• Daniel Suarez +130 Eric Jones
• William Byron -110 Joey Logano
• Christopher Bell -125 Eric Jones
• Alex Bowman +300 to win Group C (Bowman, Keselowski, Harvick and Reddick)

Saturday Update -- Just a couple of bets I like

• Landon Cassill -115 Riley Herbst
• Landon Cassill +2500 to win -- one of 5-6 guys who are in the conversation to win and he has by far the longest odds, so worth risking a few bucks
  

OK, let's get some better luck and results in this Xfinity race.

I like six guys in the $9k+ range, so you can mix and match these guys--

• Ty Gibbs - Race winning potential from the #11 starting spot. This #54 team had four wins in six races at lower wear 1.5 mile tracks last year -- including Ty winning at Charlotte and Kansas.
• Noah Gragson - Really fast in practice -- but it's forecast to be a lot more cloudy and windy on Saturday, so I'm not sure how much carries over. Some concern that he didn't lead a meaningful number of laps or run many fastest laps at these types of tracks last year.
• Justin Allgaier - Finished 2nd, led 90 laps and ran 36 fastest laps in the last race here. Tends to do well at the lower wear tracks. Love the position difference potential as well.
• A.J. Allmendinger - Starts on pole and could lead early. Won the Spring race here last year and finished in the Top 7 in five of the six lower tire wear races at 1.5 mile tracks last year.
• Josh Berry - Won last Fall's race here. Been really fast, including last week in the same car. Probably the most risk of this group, but also dominator potential for a sub-$10k salary.
• Brandon Jones - Gulp! Always a wild card and risky play, but he finished 3rd and 6th here last year and did not finish worse then 11th in any of the six low tire wear 1.5 mile track races last year. Starts 21st, so has a solid floor and Top 5 upside.

Myatt Snider and Jeb Burton are solid position difference plays in the $7-8k range. Lean Burton.

Salary saver options:

• Bayley Currey and Stephan Parsons - both ran well in California last week before having late race issues that weren't really their fault. I'm fine using either of these guys because they're among the more reliable drivers in this salary range.
• Joey Gase and Ryan Ellis are other options, but I'm a little less confident in the speed and reliability of their cars.

Quick Update - Spencer Boyd slower then expected. OK with Busch and JHN since there are a number of cheap options. I'd be surprised if anyone else leads a lap other then some random one off thing. OK with Matt Mills as well.

The key question for this slate is whether to use Kyle Busch. He's obviously the favorite and is going to lead laps and run fastest laps no matter where he starts. A lot will come down to how decent a lineup you can make with cheaper guys if using Kyle. So, for now, here's a list of some cheaper options I trust the most (all relative considering it's the Trucks Series) at this point:

• Grant Enfinger - This is a bad misprice by DK. This should be a Top 5 truck with race winning potential if something were to go wrong for Kyle and/or Nemechek.
• Stewart Friesen - He ran well at the 1.5 mile tracks last year, with 4th and 6th place finishes at Las Vegas.
• Hailie Deegan - $6.5k is a little too cheap for a high quality truck if there is position difference potential.
• Austin Wayne Self - He lives on the wild side, but consistently ran in the Top 20 at the 1.5 mile tracks last year, including 14th and 8th place finishes at Las Vegas.
• Kris Wright - He's in a Niece truck, which has a lot more potential then a lot of the other trucks down in the $5k-$6k range.
• Lawless Alan - Same story as Kris Wright with another Niece truck here.
• Timmy Hill - $5k for a driver with the ability of Timmy Hill? Sign me up. He's just head and shoulders above the other guys in this price range on driving ability.
• Spencer Boyd - In the No. 12 truck, which I view as the second best Young's Motorsports truck and a step up from his normal No. 20 ride. He keeps his truck in one piece and could be a decent punt option starting far back in field.

A couple of bets that look good to me:

• Ryan Preece +2000 to win - Vegas races can get crazy and Preece got a win in this truck at Nashville last year.
• Grant Enfinger +200 Top 5 finish - This is a Top 5 truck and driver combo, so really like getting 2-to-1 odds on it.
• Enfinger -105 Chandler Smith - Smith only had two Top 10s at 1.5 mile tracks last season in six attempts. No Top 5s. Enfinger with a solid advantage here.
• Preece -110 Zane Smith - In essentially the same equipment and I think Preece is clearly the better driver. It is also Smith's first non-Daytona race with his new team.
• Preece -135 Matt DiBenedetto - Preece has a pretty sizable advantage here in truck quality.

What a wild Saturday. Before we get into Cup stuff, I wanted to talk for a minute about contest selection. Saturday's Xfinity contests had a great example to help understand why what contests you enter might be even more important then what lineup you use.

• DK user Felixingenium entered a lineup that scored 302.75 points. Let's look how that did in three different GPP contests.
  • In the $125k Piston, which allows up to 150 entries per person, and costs $10 to enter, the lineup finished in 119th place and returned $60, for a net gain of $50. Not bad.
  • In the $10l Pitstop, which allows up to 10 entries per person, and costs $33 to enter, the very same lineup finished 3rd and returned $500, for a net gain of $467. An awesome day.
  • In the $25k Spotter, which allows up to 4 entries per person, and costs $180 to enter, the very same lineup finished 1st and returned $5,000, for a net gain of $4,820. Now we're really talking.
  • I know not everyone will ever be comfortable playing in the higher entry fee contests. But, time after time, the same lineup will win a whole lot more in those contests then it will in the much larger, cheaper contests. Even if that style of play isn't available to you now, please keep all this in mind as a goal out there as you progress in DFS.

Now onto Cup stuff. I've got to think cash lineups are going to be so chalky with a host of good cars starting in the back due to numerous practice and qualifying issues. I really can't argue against playing any of the five guys who will be scored in the 30s - Almirola, Harvick, Chastain, Wallace and Kurt Busch. Kurt will have to do a drive through penalty, but with the number of expected cautions on Sunday, it's pretty likely he can get a lap back even if he does fall off the lead lap serving the penalty. You could conceivably use all five and then pick your favorite with the remaining salary.

• The other potential strategy would be to use four of them with Kyle Larson and then another salary fill in for the last spot. 
• I don't really have more to say about Sunday. The approach is really straight forward and a lot is really unknown, so I hate to overanalyze it when we really don't have relevant data to do so.

A couple of bets I like:

• Cindric +130 Briscoe
• Wallace +115 Burton
• Stenhouse +125 Burton
• Bowman +225 Top 5 finish

SATURDAY UPDATE -- There are a ton of good position difference plays in the mid tier today. The question you need to ask is who do you trust? Guys like Myatt Snider, Anthony Alfredo and Jeffrey Earnhardt have a good floor and upside because of their starting spot. But do you trust them? Or would you rather take a little less scoring floor and upside with guys like Tommy Joe Martins, Kaz Grala, Jeb Burton and Brett Moffitt. This early in the season with such a short practice, I'm leaning toward the second group. I'll take the risk of fading that first group with eyes wide open that it might burn me because I trust the second group more. (Also, Timmy Hill is out and will not race. It's ridiculous that Graf bought out the ride after missing the race in qualifying.)

Same day qualifying makes it so hard to narrow down the target list in advance. I'll try to add a quick note after qualifying on Saturday. Here's the best I can do for now:

• Ty Gibbs - This #54 car was just amazing at intermediate tracks last year. Should be really fast and a potential dominator.
• Noah Gragson - Gragson is usually right up there on these worn out surfaces that have high tire wear.
• Justin Allgaier - If in doubt, it might make sense to fall back on a reliable veteran like Allgaier. He's got plenty of track experience here and won two races on high tire wear tracks last year (Atlanta and Darlington).
• Allmendinger, Hemric and Cassill - Generally speaking, the Kauling cars have not been great at high tire wear tracks. Cassill could be a good sub-$9k play depending on starting spot. I'd be surprised to see a dominator from this team.
• Cole Custer - Experienced here and a car put together by the Stewart Haas.
• Brandon Jones, Trevor Bayne and Sam Mayer - All at reasonable prices in top level cars. I'd jump on any of them if they drop at all in qualifying. (Jones led a bunch of laps and probably should have won the last Auto Club race two years ago.)
• Austin Hill - Just way too cheap in a RCR car. Even without the price difference, I'd prefer Hill over Sheldon Creed in what should be nearly identical race cars.
• Brett Moffitt down to Tommy Joe Martins - I would have no problem using any of the drivers in this price range depending on qualifying spot. They all should have reliable cars and are decent drivers. (Note: While it's a small sample size of six races, Brandon Brown was terrible at high tire wear tracks last year, finishing 24th or worse in all six races. On the flip side, Jeremy Clements finished 12th or better in all six of those races. Clements needs a strong finish here after getting wrecked out at Daytona and finishing near dead last.)
• Timmy Hill - He's in a Ryan Sieg car this week which is way better then his normal Xfinity ride at MBM. A primary target for me depending on starting spot.
• Mason Massey - Although it's always risky to dig this deep, Massey could be a decent punt play. The DGR cars tend to about 20th place cars and pretty reliable. He's really cheap so if finishing 20th-25th gives him position difference upside, then I could see going for it.

Bets

• Noah Gragson -130 Top 5 finish
• Cole Custer +250 Top 5 finish
• Timmy Hill +5000 Top 5 finish - not going to happen, but at this long of odds, worth a few bucks

Reminder - I won't be posting anything for the Duels. My stuff will start with Trucks on Friday.

Trucks Series Notes posted below Thursday Night - Friday Update Posted Below
Xfinity Series Notes coming soon - Friday Night Update Posted Below - Post Qual Notes Below
Cup Series Notes posted below Friday Morning

Time to get back to work. All three series are in action this weekend and I'll keep updating this post as necessary until The 500 begins. We'll start with some general comments about my approach for Daytona--

• Don't overdo it. We all know the superspeedway races are the most unpredictable races of the year. Sometimes half the field or more wrecks out. These races are unlike what we see most weeks and it virtually eliminates the edge that knowledgeable NASCAR fanatics like us have on the field in DFS contests. Play. Have fun. But the season is really long with 70+ events between all three series. We'll have an edge for most of those events, so let's focus there and not on these first three wildcard races. Personally, at superspeedways, I play about 30%-50% of what I budget as my normal weekly amount. It's tough to hold back in this first weekend back, but it's the right move.
• Using guys starting in the back is the right general rule of thumb. But dig a little deeper. We want the guys that not only start in the back, but that also tend to run in the back for at least the first half of the race. We don't want the guys in the Trucks Series who will be battling two and three wide trying to get stage points on Lap 20. We much prefer the guys who are content to run behind the lead pack and let a couple wrecks happen to thin the field in front of them. (More on this when I identify a few specific drivers I like in each series.)
• Don't worry about leaving a lot of salary on the table this week. It really doesn't matter how much you do leave on the table. Never pay for the expensive guys starting near the front at a superspeedway.
• Some of the betting lines this week are just nuts. We've got some sites posting -1000 or shorter odds on 5+ drivers to finish in the Top 20. A driver would need a 90%+ chance of finishing in the Top 20 to make that bet make sense. But no one has a 90%+ chance of even finishing the race, let alone finishing in the Top 20. As with DFS, be real careful betting on superspeedway races. If I do make any bets this week, it will very likely be at +100 or longer odds.

I'll add comments below for each Series after salaries come out and we see some more practice and qualifying runs.

Trucks Series (Friday) -- will update if possible after qualifying

• The Trucks Series races tend to be absolutely crazy because you have a lot of young, inexperienced superspeedway drivers combined with a lot of questionable equipment out there.
  • The last two Daytona races, 31% of the field has wrecked out completely and only 56% of the field finished on the lead lap. Three years ago at Daytona, 72% of the field wrecked out completely.
• For cash games, I'll be targeting guys on smaller teams that I expect to qualify near the back and stay in the back during the race and let the chaos unfold in front of them. My main targets include:
  • Timmy Hill - Family owned
  • Jess Little, Spencer Boyd and Danny Bohn - Young's Motorsports
  • Tate Fogleman - On Point
  • Jordan Anderson - Family owned
  • Kris Wright and Lawless Alan - Niece Motorsports
  • Jason White, Thad Moffitt - Reaume
• Obviously, if someone from a bigger team qualifies poorly, you play them too.
• FRIDAY UPDATE --  Going to be really chalky: 
  • Rhodes, Crafton, Klingerman all OK now with bad starting spots
  • Timmy Hill doing an engine change, so a little worried about that, but love the driver and starting spot, so still in play
  • Bohn, Fogleman, White, Moffitt all good to go - preferred in that order
  • Little, Boyd, Wright and Alan not good any longer because starting too far forward
  • Anderson did not make the race

Xfinity Series (Saturday)

• Looking at basically the same strategy as Trucks. Bigger teams who totally miss in qualifying and smaller teams starting in the back who will run in the back for a good chunk of the race. Here are the main targets:
  • JD Motorsports - Bayley Currey and Ryan Vargas
  • DGM - Alex Labbe, Mason Massey, Kyle Weatherman and Josh Bilicki
  • BJ McLeod - Josh Williams, Stephan Parsons and Matt Mills
  • Alpha Prime - Tommy Joe Martins
  • SS Green Light - David Starr and Joe Graf Jr
  • Emerling Gase - Joey Gase and Shane Lee
  • I also think JJ Yeley and Ronnie Bassett would run in the back if they make the race, but these cars also have the most question marks about reliability and speed
• Post Qualifying 
  • Sam Meyer obviously an add and good play
  • Jeremy Clements a strong add as well. Good plate track guy
  • Tommy Joe Martins and Shane Lee from list above look good
  • Josh Bilicki, Ryan Truex and Myatt Snider all good plays
  • Fading Kyle Sieg -- too young and inexperienced compared to alternatives
  • Cassill, Hill and Creed all +1600 to win

Cup Series (Sunday)

• With the starting lineup set, my initial reaction is to just sit out cash games this week because there will be so much chalk. Almost everyone will play Denny Hamlin, Austin Dillon, Aric Almirola and Noah Gragson. Most will complete their lineup with some combination of Cole Custer, Daniel Hemric and David Ragan. Everything is going to come down to one or two drivers and lineup spots at most. And there's just no way to gain an edge in those spots. It's all about who gets caught in a wreck and/or finishes a few spots higher in the end.
• My current plan is to play out the tickets I have in the Million Dollar contest on DK and maybe play a few tournaments just for fun. I'll probably do a few cash games just to get ownership numbers, but at 10% or so of the normal budget.

Just wanted to drop a quick note as the 2022 season approaches. I'm planning to post my notes for DFS and gambling throughout the season again this year. It might not be every series every week, but I should cover most of it. I will NOT be covering the pre-season nonsense like the Clash or Duals. Please use throw away money on those. Save for the real season. More to  come during Daytona week.

All of my notes for the Championship races at Phoenix are in the three posts below this one. For this one, I just wanted to take a few minutes to let you all know how my season long leagues have gone.

• I'm in the Championship Four in a private DK league run by @JoeSchroe85. The format is very similar to the actual Cup Series with weekly contests and a 16 person Playoff format that mirrors the Cup Series with the bottom four eliminated after each 3-race round. I've been solid throughout and had two weekly wins during the Playoffs to help me reach the Finals. It's my first year in this league and there's a lot of really good players in it, so I'm really pleased (and surprised) how well it has gone. Will let you know how the Finals turn out.
• I'm also in the Championship Four in a pick'em league run by Brandon Croud, who hosts the Lapped Traffic Podcast (@lappedtrafficpc). What I love about this league is that it incorporates all three series -- Trucks, Xfinity and Cup. You pick one driver from each series for each race and earn the points that driver earns for that race. It also has a 10-week Playoff for the Top 16 people with eliminations after each 3-race round. I had a pretty big cushion coming into Martinsville, but still almost got bounced because I had John Hunter Nemechek and Denny Hamlin. Luckily, I was able to hold on to the 4th spot in the Finals and I've got Zane Smith, Austin Cindric and Kyle Larson going for me this week. I have already used Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott and Martin Truex in the Playoffs, so the league rules prohibit me from using them this week even if I wanted to. I'm really psyched to be in the Finals here because he had over 125 people who entered this contest. This league is generally open to new participants each year and I'd encourage you to check it (and the podcast) out at www.thelappedtrafficpodcast.com. 
  • ​​SATURDAY UPDATE - Two of us had Zane Smith and we're +7 over the other two who had J.H. Nemechek. So it's close heading into Saturday. We all have Larson Sunday, so we'll know the final order after the Xfinity Series race.
• Lastly, I'm in a season long DK points league run by @Larkin8. We've got a DK contest for each Cup race and we just see who accrues the most points over the course of the entire season. There are 77 entries in this one and I'm sitting 6th heading into the final week. Realistically, I'll likely finish somewhere between 4th-8th. Again, very pleased with this one because it's a real test to stay strong each and every week. There are some really, really good DFS players in this league as well.