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kansas cup

5/14/2022

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We had three cars that didn't take qualifying times and will start in the back. Let's deal with them first--

Chris Buescher and Ricky Stenhouse - I don't see how you can not use them in cash games and most single entry contests. Buescher in particular is one of the steadier drivers in the series and a very safe play. Stenhouse can be erratic, but has his best two finishes of the season the last two weeks. I'm not feeling real good about any other sub-$7k plays other than Todd Gilliland at $4,900. That's a crazy cheap price with him starting that far back with a safe floor.
Joey Logano - Logano is a little trickier for me because I really like a lot of guys hovering around the $10k mark. Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain, William Byron, Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin all look good to me, so it's difficult deciding among this group whether you want to go for laps led and fastest laps potential or go the position difference path. At the end of the day, Logano offers such a super safe floor, with tremendous upside, that it will be hard to fade him. I could see it though if you feel strongly about others in this price range.
Brad Keselowski - $7,400 is a real attractive price tag with Brad starting back in the 30th position. If all he does is finish 18th, you've still got your 5x return.
Kevin Harvick - Harvick has finished no worse then 4th in the last four Kansas races. He starts 23rd on Sunday and offers a good +15 position difference upside. The question is whether he's worth the $8,700 salary when you have someone like Keselowski sitting there at $7,400. Harvick should clearly finish this race better then BK, but who will offer the better bang for the buck?
Ross Chastain - Ross had the #2 green flag speed earlier this year at Las Vegas - which is the closest comp to Kansas this season. He started 18th, finished 3rd, led 83 laps and ran 28 fastest laps for 89 DK points at Vegas. He's been #1 in green flag speed the last two weeks at Dover and Darlington. It's hard to bet against him being one of the best cars out there on Sunday.
Kyle Busch - Was a close 2nd to Christopher Bell in 10-lap average speed in practice on Saturday. Going back to Las Vegas, he started 37th, finished 4th, led 49 laps and ran 26 fastest laps for 101 DK points. He was also really fast at Dover just two weeks ago - which isn't a crazy comp to Kansas.
Chase Elliott and William Byron - Really in the same boat to me as guys who we can expect to finish in the Top 8 or so at Kansas. They weren't great in practice or at Las Vegas earlier this year, though, so this is more of a faith in prior performance here moving them towards the front.
Denny Hamlin - He had the top green flag speed at Las Vegas earlier this year, so there's good reason to think he'll be fast on Sunday. My concern is the mistakes. This team has one Top 12 finish in twelve races this year. With Denny starting from the rear, there are just more opportunities for mistakes. I can see it working out, but it's too risky for me.
Christopher Bell - Reasonable salary and he probably leads some early. My concerns include mistakes from this team and the likelihood we see an early Stage 1 competition caution because of heavy rain overnight on Saturday night/Sunday morning. Can he hold the lead through two starts and a pit stop cycle?

Kevin Harvick +700 Top Ford

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darlington cup

5/7/2022

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More practice/qualifying drama leaves us with some very chalky plays for cash games and single entry contests on Sunday. Let's go through my top options --

Kevin Harvick - Starts 35th after being unable to qualify because of a flat tire and resulting damage in practice. He's finished inside the Top 5 in eight of the last ten Darlington races, so is consistently very good here. A Top 5 is a stretch starting from the back, but a Top 10 and +25 position difference points is certainly a realistic projection.
Chase Elliott - Starts 34th after also having a tire go down in practice and making hard contact with the outside wall. He'll be in a backup car for Sunday. He's generally very fast at Darlington, but hasn't always gotten the finishing position he probably deserved. That said, he has a very safe floor and Top 10 upside just like Harvick.
Denny Hamlin - Hamlin had a diffuser issue on Saturday and will be starting from the rear even though he officially has the 22nd starting spot. In the last ten Darlington races, he has three wins and seven Top 5 finishes. He doesn't have quite the same high floor and ceiling as Harvick and Elliott, but I feel like Hamlin is the most likely of that group to get up front and lead laps - although that's still pretty unlikely.
Kyle Larson - Larson has finished 2nd in the his last three Darlington races. Last Fall, he led 156 laps and ran 86 fastest laps, scoring 123.7 DK points. He starts 2nd on Sunday and I wouldn't be surprised to see him challenge Joey Logano for the early lead. However, Larson has been a relative disappointment at times this year since he's been unable to dominate and run away with races as he did so often last year. I feel that dominant performance is coming, so it is scary to fade him -- but I get it given his performance so far this year and other tempting options.
Martin Truex and Ross Chastain are other prime dominator targets starting in the Top 10. (I personally don't have enough confidence in Joey Logano holding the early lead to go that direction.)
Some mid-level guys I'm interested in are Brad Keselowski, Ricky Stenhouse and Cole Custer.
- Keselowski has a pretty decent history here (albeit in a little better car) and Roush has been OK as an organization here as well. He starts 23rd and it seems reasonable to think he can gain 5+ places and make it worth a sub-$8k salary. He wasn't overly quick in practice on Saturday, but he did make a long run that should help them with adjustments for better long run speed. His teammate Buescher also did a long run, so the organization should have some good data to get better.
- Stenhouse had a good 10-lap average time in practice and has three consecutive Top 20 finishes at Darlington. He's coming off a good run at Dover and is down under $7k from a relatively safe 26th starting spot.
- Custer has finished 11th and 12th in two of the last three Darlington races. He didn't put up great times in practice, but is cheap and can't really go backwards from this 28th starting spot unless something goes really wrong.
Punt plays--
- Corey LaJoie - Just too cheap for a guy with 15th and 22nd place finishes at Darlington last year. There's not much upside here, but he also doesn't need to do much at all to pay off the sub-$5k salary.
- Justin Haley - He's finished 17th or better in seven of the last nine races overall this year. He didn't put up real good speed or do a long run in practice, so that is of some concern.

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Qualifying got rained out halfway through, so we've got a bit of a wacky qualifying order. There are a number of really good position difference plays starting in the back that will lead to a lot of chalky lineups in cash games. Let's talk through some of the options--

Tyler Reddick - He's in the #48 car and was really fast on Friday before the rain hit. He should be a Top 10 car and has Top 5 upside at a track that suits him perfectly.
Ryan Truex - He has a Top 3 long run car in practice, but had some kind of mechanical issue on his qualifying run before the rain hit. The issue gives me some hesitation, but it's likely a big team like JGR can diagnose and fix the issue before the race. He'll probably start from the rear, but that's fine with his 28th official starting spot.
John Hunter Nemechek - He had the best 5-lap and 10-lap times in practice on Friday and won the Truck Series race Friday night. Like Reddick, this should be a Top 10 car with Top 5 potential.
Stephan Parsons, Josh Bilicki and Tommy Joe Martins - The best of the punt options since they start really far back and all have some experience here. If salary is no issue, that's the order I'd use them in. I am worried about TJM because his speed was way off in practice and his pre-rain qualifying run was not very good at all.
- I could also see using Timmy Hill as a punt, but be cautious and realistic. It's not going to be a very reliable or fast car. But he is a better driver then half the field.
- I'm also adding Bayley Currey here because he's so darn cheap. He shouldn't go backwards unless the car breaks. And he's typically been finishing in the low- to mid-20s in incident free races. (They're Xfinity punts, so it's hard to feel real good about any of these.)
Noah Gragson - He's usually awesome at the worn out tracks that run fast right along the wall. I think he wins this race and leads a good chunk of laps.
Josh Berry - Also excels at worn out race tracks and is coming off a great win at Dover last week. Probably not a cash game play, but like him a lot as a possibly lower owned dominator in tournaments.

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darlington

5/5/2022

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I won't have anything for Trucks on Friday. But I'll post notes for Xfinity late Friday night and Cup late Saturday night. Good luck this weekend!

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Dover xfinity

4/29/2022

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We've got some very tough decisions at the high end of the salary structure for Saturday, so let's start with the easy stuff and work our way up to the hardest choices. Here is my thinking for cash games and single entry tournaments:

Ryan Sieg - He had a mechanical/axle issue on Friday, so couldn't post a qualifying time and will start dead last. He should be good to go for Saturday's race and he's finished 14th or better in the last five Dover races. He's a textbook cash game play in this spot.
Stefan Parsons - We need a few expensive dominators, so we also need a few cheaper options. Parsons is my favorite at only $5k. He's a veteran with Dover experience and should have no problem moving up 5 spots or more as long as he doesn't have any issues.
- Some other guys I'll consider but have more concerns about are Ryan Ellis and Matt Mills.
  - Ellis had a RR flat during qualifying so didn't post a second lap on Friday. He also had a RR flat during the Talladega race, so I'm worried this car has a rear end issue that hasn't been fixed yet.
  - Mills engine sounded really weird during qualifying and his speed was way off the pace, so I'm probably out on him even though he's dirt cheap and can't really go backwards.
  - Maybe David Starr if really desperate?
  - Patrick Emerling and Chad Finchum were way off the pace in practice and qualifying.
I like the mid-$6k range with Jeremy Clements, Kaz Grala and Parker Retzlaff.
- Clements is probably the safest (but also has the least upside) because he pretty reliably finishes 12th-18th at Dover.
- Grala had Top 12 speed in practice on Friday and I still believe this #48 car is stronger then it has shown this year with Jade Buford driving. Moderate upside and downside.
- Retzlaff has been pretty impressive this year and has some Dover experience in the ARCA series. He has the most upside and downside of this group.
I'm interested in Landon Cassill at $8k. There is limited upside because Kaulig didn't bring race winning speed to the track this week. But I could easily see Cassill sneaking into the back end of the Top 10 and hitting well in excess of a 5x return on his salary.
Dominators - This is a really tough call this week. This is roughly in the order I prefer them based on potential and salary:
- John Hunter Nemechek - He was 1st in 10, 15, 20 and 25 lap average speed in practice on Friday. He's got plenty of Dover experience and should have won the Richmond Xfinity race earlier this year. This #18 car has been really, really fast all year long no matter who is driving it. Add some position difference points and I'm all there for it.
- Noah Gragson - He has brought race winning speed to the track every single week. He was 2nd in 10 lap average and 3rd in 20 and 25 lap average speed in practice. And I really liked the diamond shaped line he ran through the corners on Friday. I think JHN or Gragson win this race.
- Justin Allgaier - He's incredible at Dover. He's finished in the Top 3 in seven of the last eight Dover races. And, in the last four Dover races, he's finished 1st or 2nd in seven of the eight stages. So he's running up front all race every race at Dover. You can't go wrong with any of these three.
- Ty Gibbs - He could very well crush everyone on Saturday. But I can't justify going to his salary when you have three equally good (if not better) options at lower salaries.
- Brandon Jones - I don't trust him in this spot, especially with these other guys starting close enough to pressure him from the get go. If he burns me, I can live with that.
- It's not crazy at all to think Josh Berry or Sam Meyer dominates and wins this race on Saturday. I just can't get there in a cash game or single entry tournament with these other great options.

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talladega cup

4/23/2022

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It all starts with Chase Elliott in the 28th starting spot. For cash games I wouldn't use anyone starting further forward than that. So let's look at the options--

Chase Elliott - Race winning potential with a good floor from the 28th starting spot.
Cole Custer - He's had some good results at superspeedways. Solid play.
Chris Buescher - Prototypical cash game play here.
Noah Gragson - Ran aggressively in the Daytona 500. Risk vs. reward.
Todd Gilliland - Been real solid this year.
Corey LaJoie - Hasn't been as great at superspeedways lately, but has a history of finishing these on the lead lap most of the time.
Cody Ware - Too many good options around him to make it worth the risk.
Greg Biffle - Same as Ware.
David Ragan - Good superspeedway history and an 8th at Daytona and 18th at Atlanta already this year.
BJ McLeod - Going to ride in the back and let people wreck out. I'm fine with this.
JJ Yeley - Same as Ware.
Landon Cassill - Has a pass through penalty to start the race, so could have some trouble if we don't get a caution in Stage 1. There are probably enough other good options to avoid the risk here.

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talladega xfinity

4/22/2022

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It's very straight forward for cash games in the Xfinity Series. There's no reason to use anyone starting better than 31st. So here are the options -

Myatt Snider - been in contention at plate tracks, but will be fighting and at risk most of the race
Shane Lee - probably going to lay back until late in the race
Gray Gaulding - like Gaulding as a driver, but lots of question marks on the equipment here
Jeremy Clements - see Myatt Snider
David Starr - don't know what Starr will do, but he is a veteran with a number of Top 20 finishes at plate tracks in comparable cars
Joey Gase - should lay back until late in the race and he's a solid driver
Kyle Sieg - he stayed in the back for most of the race at Daytona and avoided trouble, so I'm guessing he follows the same strategy here
Ryan Ellis - similar to Joey Gase

Some good plays that are a little more aggressive -

A.J. Allmendinger - always in contention at the plate tracks and Kaulig (Allmendinger, Hemric and Cassill) does the best job of working as a team to get up front
Noah Gragson - will be aggressive in moving forward
Mason Massey, Josh Williams, Matt Mills, JJ Yeley and Bayley Currey - This group starts 25th-30th and is very likely to ride conservatively in the back waiting for others to wreck out. I could see one or more of them finishing in the Top 10 if we see a lot of wrecks, so I like them as alternatives to more aggressive chalk plays like Snider and Clements in a tournament setting.

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Hiatus

3/29/2022

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The website here will be on hiatus until Talladega. I'll be unavailable the next two weekends (Richmond and Martinsville) and don't to the dirt race at Bristol. Gonna be back as strong as ever come Dega Week.

Good luck to all in the meantime.

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cota cup

3/26/2022

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Lots of very good options in play this week, so I'm going to break down each tier and let you know what I'm thinking--

$9k and up

My favorites here are William Byron and Kyle Larson. They offer so much upside with worse then expected starting spots. Byron was really, really fast at road courses last year but didn't get the end result he probably deserved on several occasions. Larson won three of seven road course races last year and had five Top 3 finishes in those races.
- Can't go wrong with Chase Elliott either. He's always running near the front at road courses, but he was just not up to speed in practice so I do have some concerns about this first road course race in the new car.
- I also really like Kyle Busch and might end up flipping the two Kyles here. I love that Busch ran really well in the Trucks race and put up a couple of really fast laps in practice.
- Martin Truex and Austin Cindric are also in play.

$7k-$9k

My favorites here are Ross Chastain and AJ Allmendinger. Ross was an absolute rocket ship in practice with three of the fastest laps on the board. He was also very strong in the Xfinity race on Saturday, was strong on road courses last year and comes in with great recent form. AJ won the Xfinity race and is always a threat at a road course. The longer and more technical the laps are, the better it is for his skills.
- I've got a lot of interest in Chase Briscoe, but feel Chastain and Allmendinger offer a little better upside for less salary.
- Eric Jones is also in play from the 30th starting spot. He had six Top 20 finishes in the seven road course races last year.

Under $7k

Michael McDowell and Joey Hand are my favorites here. McDowell is usually solid at the road courses and ran a few good laps in practice. Hand was quite quick in practice before blowing a RF tire. He's very cheap and starts 38th, so is an all upside play.
- Todd Gilliland (won the Truck race here last year) and Andy Lally (road course ringer) can also be considered.

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COTA Trucks and xfinity

3/25/2022

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Two slates, so right to the point here--

Trucks

I don't think Kyle Busch is worth it for two reasons. (1) His ceiling just isn't high enough so even if he dominates the race you can win without him. (2) I hate the lower salary tier here so want to avoid it if at all possible.
The best plays to me are in the $8,900 - $9,900 range. I'd load up as much as you can here.
- Matt DiBenedetto obviously
- The group of Grant Enfinger, Kaz Grala, Ben Rhodes and Chandler Smith all offer quite a bit of safety and Top 10 upside. That's probably the order I'd rank them, but it's close and have no issue with any of them. Smith has had great speed so far this year, but has a questionable history at road courses.
- You could go up to J.H. Nemechek, but I'm not sure he has any more upside then any of the others who are a little cheaper.
Matt Crafton and Ty Majeski are playable in a little cheaper range, but neither has shown road course performance as good as the last group.
Tanner Gray is also usable with a safer floor and +10 position difference upside. He is a little on the pricey side though, so not a must have.
I don't have a lot of desire to dip below the $6k range because there are just too many question marks. Timmy Hill would be the guy down there because he's easily the best driver in this tier. But there are some reliability questions with the truck for that team and it adds risk that they spent time preparing a second truck for his brother that failed to make the race in qualifying.

Xfinity

Up top, I lean Allmendinger over Gibbs. It's close and Gibbs might just dominate this race. But there are a lot of aggressive drivers up front with Gibbs, Chastain and Custer and I just feel like Allmendinger is the best road course racer in that group and can use his experience and patience to come out ahead. He also offers a few additional points of position difference if he can move up.
Brandon Jones obviously - although I'd consider fading him in larger tournaments.
Noah Gragson was fast in practice and has Top 5 upside. Daniel Hemric also has good position difference upside from 19th.
Three strong plays in the $6k range with Jeremy Clements, Brandon Brown and Ryan Sieg. That is the order I'd rank them with Sieg as a distant third. But he does have more safety and upside with the 35th starting spot.
I don't mind dipping below the $6k mark for Xfinity.
- Josh Bilicki, Sage Karam and JJ Yeley all have solid road course backgrounds. The issue is their car reliability. Bilicki and Karam have a slight advantage there I think.
- I also don't hate Stephan Parsons for a sub-$5k salary.

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