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Dover xfinity

4/29/2022

We've got some very tough decisions at the high end of the salary structure for Saturday, so let's start with the easy stuff and work our way up to the hardest choices. Here is my thinking for cash games and single entry tournaments:

Ryan Sieg - He had a mechanical/axle issue on Friday, so couldn't post a qualifying time and will start dead last. He should be good to go for Saturday's race and he's finished 14th or better in the last five Dover races. He's a textbook cash game play in this spot.
Stefan Parsons - We need a few expensive dominators, so we also need a few cheaper options. Parsons is my favorite at only $5k. He's a veteran with Dover experience and should have no problem moving up 5 spots or more as long as he doesn't have any issues.
- Some other guys I'll consider but have more concerns about are Ryan Ellis and Matt Mills.
  - Ellis had a RR flat during qualifying so didn't post a second lap on Friday. He also had a RR flat during the Talladega race, so I'm worried this car has a rear end issue that hasn't been fixed yet.
  - Mills engine sounded really weird during qualifying and his speed was way off the pace, so I'm probably out on him even though he's dirt cheap and can't really go backwards.
  - Maybe David Starr if really desperate?
  - Patrick Emerling and Chad Finchum were way off the pace in practice and qualifying.
I like the mid-$6k range with Jeremy Clements, Kaz Grala and Parker Retzlaff.
- Clements is probably the safest (but also has the least upside) because he pretty reliably finishes 12th-18th at Dover.
- Grala had Top 12 speed in practice on Friday and I still believe this #48 car is stronger then it has shown this year with Jade Buford driving. Moderate upside and downside.
- Retzlaff has been pretty impressive this year and has some Dover experience in the ARCA series. He has the most upside and downside of this group.
I'm interested in Landon Cassill at $8k. There is limited upside because Kaulig didn't bring race winning speed to the track this week. But I could easily see Cassill sneaking into the back end of the Top 10 and hitting well in excess of a 5x return on his salary.
Dominators - This is a really tough call this week. This is roughly in the order I prefer them based on potential and salary:
- John Hunter Nemechek - He was 1st in 10, 15, 20 and 25 lap average speed in practice on Friday. He's got plenty of Dover experience and should have won the Richmond Xfinity race earlier this year. This #18 car has been really, really fast all year long no matter who is driving it. Add some position difference points and I'm all there for it.
- Noah Gragson - He has brought race winning speed to the track every single week. He was 2nd in 10 lap average and 3rd in 20 and 25 lap average speed in practice. And I really liked the diamond shaped line he ran through the corners on Friday. I think JHN or Gragson win this race.
- Justin Allgaier - He's incredible at Dover. He's finished in the Top 3 in seven of the last eight Dover races. And, in the last four Dover races, he's finished 1st or 2nd in seven of the eight stages. So he's running up front all race every race at Dover. You can't go wrong with any of these three.
- Ty Gibbs - He could very well crush everyone on Saturday. But I can't justify going to his salary when you have three equally good (if not better) options at lower salaries.
- Brandon Jones - I don't trust him in this spot, especially with these other guys starting close enough to pressure him from the get go. If he burns me, I can live with that.
- It's not crazy at all to think Josh Berry or Sam Meyer dominates and wins this race on Saturday. I just can't get there in a cash game or single entry tournament with these other great options.

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talladega cup

4/23/2022

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It all starts with Chase Elliott in the 28th starting spot. For cash games I wouldn't use anyone starting further forward than that. So let's look at the options--

Chase Elliott - Race winning potential with a good floor from the 28th starting spot.
Cole Custer - He's had some good results at superspeedways. Solid play.
Chris Buescher - Prototypical cash game play here.
Noah Gragson - Ran aggressively in the Daytona 500. Risk vs. reward.
Todd Gilliland - Been real solid this year.
Corey LaJoie - Hasn't been as great at superspeedways lately, but has a history of finishing these on the lead lap most of the time.
Cody Ware - Too many good options around him to make it worth the risk.
Greg Biffle - Same as Ware.
David Ragan - Good superspeedway history and an 8th at Daytona and 18th at Atlanta already this year.
BJ McLeod - Going to ride in the back and let people wreck out. I'm fine with this.
JJ Yeley - Same as Ware.
Landon Cassill - Has a pass through penalty to start the race, so could have some trouble if we don't get a caution in Stage 1. There are probably enough other good options to avoid the risk here.

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talladega xfinity

4/22/2022

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It's very straight forward for cash games in the Xfinity Series. There's no reason to use anyone starting better than 31st. So here are the options -

Myatt Snider - been in contention at plate tracks, but will be fighting and at risk most of the race
Shane Lee - probably going to lay back until late in the race
Gray Gaulding - like Gaulding as a driver, but lots of question marks on the equipment here
Jeremy Clements - see Myatt Snider
David Starr - don't know what Starr will do, but he is a veteran with a number of Top 20 finishes at plate tracks in comparable cars
Joey Gase - should lay back until late in the race and he's a solid driver
Kyle Sieg - he stayed in the back for most of the race at Daytona and avoided trouble, so I'm guessing he follows the same strategy here
Ryan Ellis - similar to Joey Gase

Some good plays that are a little more aggressive -

A.J. Allmendinger - always in contention at the plate tracks and Kaulig (Allmendinger, Hemric and Cassill) does the best job of working as a team to get up front
Noah Gragson - will be aggressive in moving forward
Mason Massey, Josh Williams, Matt Mills, JJ Yeley and Bayley Currey - This group starts 25th-30th and is very likely to ride conservatively in the back waiting for others to wreck out. I could see one or more of them finishing in the Top 10 if we see a lot of wrecks, so I like them as alternatives to more aggressive chalk plays like Snider and Clements in a tournament setting.

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