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phoenix cup

3/7/2020

Sunday Morning: Seeing some sites with Kevin Harvick +110 H2H against Martin Truex. With Harvick's profile and Truex starting from the rear, this is a great play. One of my larger plays for the season so far. Added a few more plays below.

Cash game lineup thoughts:

I think you've got to lock in the 2 of Brad Keselowski. His car had amazing long run speed in final practice to the point where he was over .1/second faster each lap over runs of 20, 25 and 30 laps. This is easily a Top 5 car and he's starting 14th. So, even if he doesn't get up and lead a bunch of laps, you're still looking at up to +10 position difference with some fastest laps likely mixed in there. Also, this Penske team as a whole has shown great speed thus far. Logano won Las Vegas, Blaney was right up front at Vegas and Auto Club.
I can see a case for using any of Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch or Kevin Harvick as a second dominator.
- Elliott is probably going to lead at least for a bit at the beginning of the race and he was 5th in 15-lap and 20-lap average speed in final practice, so it's not a bad long run car. I wouldn't fault anyone for using him - especially with a sub $10k salary - but I think there are several stronger cars and I have doubts that Chase will lead a whole bunch of laps. I hate to go into a race feeling I'm nearly certain to be eating negative position difference points from a "dominator".
- I mention Busch because this has been his playground lately. In the last four races here, he has two wins and two second place finishes. In three of those races, he's led for over 115 laps. But doubt creeps in because he was not good in final practice. He was only 13th in 10 lap average and he didn't even complete a longer run of 15+ laps to allow us to compare his long run speed to the other top cars. These are all warning signs he was not at all happy with the car on Friday. I won't count him out, but I'm also skeptical of paying the highest salary for a car that wasn't competitive in final practice.
- Harvick has also had a lot of success at Phoenix - although not as much recently as Busch. But he was very strong in final practice. He was 1st in 10 lap average and then trailed only Keselowski in 15, 20 and 25 lap average. He starts 2nd and I wouldn't be surprised to see him take the lead early on in the race.
I love the group from $6k-$7k on Draft Kings. Ty Dillon has been a Top 20 car in five of the last six Phoenix races. Tyler Reddick offers a good floor and +10-15 position difference upside starting 29th. Chris Buescher has three Top 16 finishes to start the season and has finished in the Top 18 in the last three Phoenix races. He's as safe as anyone out there right now. Ross Chastain has +10 position difference upside starting 24th. Even Bubba Wallace has +5 position difference upside starting 27th. Bell and Custer are too risky for cash games, but are on my tournament list.
A couple other guys to consider are Austin Dillon and William Byron.
- Dillon starts 30th but I'm not sure he has the upside to justify a $7,500 salary. He was only 25th in 5 lap average in final practice and didn't even do a 10 lap run - which is very concerning. It's my personal preference to shy away from Dillon in cash games and I'm likely to do so here because his salary isn't cheap enough.
- I like Byron because of his long run speed in final practice. He was 7th in 10 lap average, leapfrogged one car to be 6th in 20 lap average, and then jumped two more cars to be 3rd in 25 lap average. This is a strong indicator that he is able to maintain his speed over the long run better then most other cars. Starting 17th, he's got +10 position difference upside and getting some fastest laps or laps led isn't out of the question.

A few wagers I'm playing:

Byron +3900 to win
Keselowski +700 to win
Harvick +500 to win
Byron -115 Over Bowman
Harvick +110 Over Truex
Johnson +140 Over Bowman
Kurt Busch -115 Over Bowman
Almirola +125 Over Jones
Custer -110 Over A. Dillon

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phoenix xfinity

3/6/2020

2 Comments

Saturday Post-Q Update: Coming soon, time permitting. Kyle Busch and Michael Annett are locks for cash games. A lot of value at the bottom end of the salary pool. Probably going to see a lot of Busch/Keselowski and Busch/Allgaier lineups.

My thoughts heading into Saturday:

You'd be nuts to not use Kyle Busch in cash games. He's very likely to dominate the race, lead the most laps and register the most fastest laps. And there's almost no downside since his ownership should be sky high. If he falters, it's going to hit almost every lineup the same so you're not really losing anything. Last year in this race, Kyle won the race, led 116 laps and had 71 fastest laps for a ridiculous 113 DK points. There was no other Cup driver in that race, but it did have Bell, Custer and Reddick, so it was still mighty impressive.
Probably fading Keselowski in cash games unless something goes crazy in qualifying. BK won this race over Kyle in 2018, but that was with the primary Penske #22 team and crew chief Brian Wilson. That's Austin Cindric's full time team and crew chief now, so Brad is in the #12 Penske car. Frankly, the #12 effort was pretty weak last year considering it was manned by Keselowski, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney numerous times. They ran a total of 8 races, had no wins and led 50+ laps only twice. Once was at Michigan where there were no other Cup drivers and the other was at Darlington where the only other Cup driver (Hamlin) had to start in the rear. Not saying BK can't win here, but I think something major would have to go wrong for Kyle for that to happen.
Allgaier has a very strong history here, but I'm not paying $10,600 for a guy who is unlikely to lead a lot of laps or get many fastest laps unless he has an issue in qualifying and can offer position difference upside.
All indications are that Jeff Green is going to run the full race. He's running here as compensation for giving up his ride in the Daytona race when RSS sold the seat to Ross Chastain when the Kaulig cars crapped out in qualifying. At $4,500, he's a strong play unless he qualifies crazy high.
Timmy Hill and Dillon Basset are two other low salary guys I'm interested in. Hill is the better driver and safer pick, although the #61 is a MBM effort and not without risk. Basset is probably in a faster car with more upside but also more risk. I'd peg Timmy for around 25th and Basset for around 20th.
Myatt Snyder at $6,700 is too cheap. He's switching back and forth between teams this year. This week, he's in the #21 car, which is the stronger team and a full RCR effort. The car should have the speed to slot in the Top 10-12.
I like the group between about $7,300 - $10,000. I'd be looking for guys least likely to lose spots with the potential to gain 4-5 positions or so. Herbst, in particular, is too cheap at $7,800 in a JGR car, although I don't fully trust the driver talent just yet. He is looking good so far this year though.
High risk/avoid cars:
- 47 - Joe Nemechek - possible park
- 74 - Baley Currey - possible park
- 89 - Landon Cassill - near certain park
- 15 - Colby Howard - first Xfinity Series race
- 52 - Kody Vanderwal - first Xfinity Series race
- 99 - JJ Yeley - This car is not showing a sponsor and there was a late driver swap to Yeley, which has me wondering since he parked almost every time with RSS last year. I'm not sure on this one, but there should be equal (if not better) options near his price range so I'm staying away.

Wagers I'm playing/looking at:

Kyle Busch +115 to WIN

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phoenix cup

phoenix xfinity

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