Frequent readers know I focus most of my comments on cash games -- the 50/50s and double-up type games. This is one of those bad weekends for cash games because we have numerous "chalk" options starting further back in the field that will be highly owned in all cash games. Specifically, we've got three Joe Gibbs cars starting 38th (Truex), 29th (Jones) and 28th (Hamlin). Truex should be near 100% ownership in cash games and I'd expect the others to be 75% or more. That's bad enough.

But it gets even worse because we have three other guys on quality teams starting outside the Top 20 that also make good/obvious cash game plays -- Byron (21st), A. Dillon (25th) and Chastain (27th). If you add all six salaries together, it fits the Draft Kings salary cap perfectly with $0 left over. I would expect to see this lineup (or something very close to it) all over cash games. So we're likely to see huge trains of this lineup in every contest and may have large ties at the cash line splitting the money all different ways. You either follow the crowd and split things 87 ways or differentiate and hope to outscore the masses.

When we have chalk days like today, it takes away our NASCAR knowledge advantage. We want a situation where the competition is forced to make a choice on 4 or 5 or even 6 of the drivers for their squad. When that many choices need to be made, we'll make better choices more often and give ourselves a better chance to win. When the lineup virtually makes itself -- even for a NASCAR novice -- our edge is gone.

So I'm pretty much out on my cash games today. I'll do a few just to see what happens and whether ownership falls as heavily on the chalk as I expect. But save the rest for the long season ahead. 

A few observations from the last few Xfinity races here:

• This is the first time in a while that we won't have a Cup driver being a dominator. Last year it was Kyle Busch and the year before that it was Joey Logano. Will be interesting to see if one Xfinity driver can dominate the fastest laps and laps led points or if they will be spread out among 2-3 of them.
• Unless we see odd qualifying results, this is not a track where we've seen much position difference movement. Last year, 8 of the Top 10 finishers started the race in the Top 10. And the lowest starting spot to finish in the Top 10 was 12th. Of the Top 20 finishers, only 3 of them started outside the Top 20. And, even then, it was not by much. The 3 "outsiders" started 21st, 23rd and 25th.
  • 2018 had a few more good cars start further back, so there was a little more position difference movement, but not all that much.

Drivers I'm most likely to play:

• Chase Briscoe -- Might be the top team in the series right now. I have no reservations about using him.
• Austin Cindric and Noah Gragson -- Probably my top targets since they're both $1k cheaper than Briscoe. They finished 1-2 and 2-3 in practice on Friday. I liked how Gragson in particular was running high and low and moving all over the race track during a long run in final practice. Being able to pass high or low will be a key to working through any traffic.
• Brandon Jones -- Ran Top 5 in both practice sessions. He's a veteran, safer play with race winning upside.
• Anthony Alfredo -- Salary play here. He's in a strong RCR car and has experience in the Truck Series.
• JJ Yeley -- He's still priced like the frequent start and park driver he was last season. He's on a completely different team this year and this team does try to run every race to completion. Was 21st in both Friday practice sessions and should score a Top 25 finish.

S&P/High Risk Cars

• I don't expect Landon Cassill to run the whole race. 
• I'm concerned about the 47, 66 and 74. I will not use them in cash games.
• The 99 was surprisingly way off pace in practice. It was very slow in the race last week as well. Staying away from it as well.

Some bets I'm playing:

• To WIN: Austin Cindric +1000, Brandon Jones +1400, Noah Gragson +1400
• H2H: Cindric +125 Over Allgaier, Gragson +115 Over Allgaier, Jones +168 Over Chastain

I'll update if able after qualifying.

With qualifying rained out, we don't have any real good cars starting too far back in the field. So it's a challenging weekend to figure out where to go. I'll try to narrow it down as best I can:

• $6k and under -- You'll probably need two guys from this group. Suarez will be heavily owned starting 35th and it's probably best to take him. Understand his upside is probably only in the 26th-28th range. John Hunter Nemechek is another good play. He starts 29th. In two races on 1.5 mile tracks last season, he finished 21st and 23rd from a comparable starting spot. For his salary, I'll take the 28-30 points that pays out. LaJoie is a solid option, too, although I think Nemechek gives you a bit more upside.  If you need to save a few more bucks, JJ Yeley is OK as well. He finished around 30th in all four races he did at 1.5 mile tracks last season and is a decent bet for 20 points or so.
• Dominators -- This is really hard to predict. My top two options are Harvick and Logano. Last Spring, Harvick finished 4th, led 88 laps and had 52 fastest laps for 85 DK points. In Fall, he finished 2nd, led 47 laps and had 23 fastest laps for 67 DK points. Logano was even better. In Spring, he won the race, led 86 laps and had 32 fastest laps for 93 DK points. In Fall, he finished 9th, but led 105 laps and had 31 fastest laps for 85 DK points. The Penske Fords as a group did really, really well at Vegas last year. Keselowski finished 2nd in Spring with 74 DK points and 3rd in the Fall with 60 DK points. Blaney was off in the Spring, but finished 5th in the Fall with 67 DK points. That said, I can't argue with those who want to go Truex - who won here in Fall. The only reason I'd put him slightly below the others is the loss of crew chief Cole Pearn. He's one of the best and I'd like to see how the team adapts before jumping fully on board. I'm less concerned with the Penske crew chief shuffle because they are all experienced Penske crew chiefs.
• IMPORTANT NOTE: Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin will have to start from the rear, but will retain their official 1st and 4th starting spots for Fantasy Nascar scoring. They are not cash game plays starting from the rear.
• Others -- I'd fill things out with guys in the middle you feel most comfortable with. Some guys I like are (1) Eric Jones starting 16th - pretty safe floor there with the most upside of this group. He finished in the Top 10 in 8 of the 11 races at 1.5 mile tracks last season. (2) Jimmie Johnson starting 18th. This is also a pretty safe floor, but probably a bit less upside then Jones.  (3) Stenhouse starting 26th. I generally don't like him in cash games, but this starting spot is enticing. He tends to do fine at 1.5 mile tracks as well. (4) Buescher starting 23rd. He was 11 for 11 finishing in the Top 20 at 1.5 mile tracks last year.

And a few wagers I'm going to play:

• Truex +100 over Kyle Busch - Kyle has added risk starting from the rear.
• Eric Jones +155 over Alex Bowman - This is close to a 50/50 call to me, so I like getting +155.
• Reddick +300 over Stenhouse, Buescher and Custer - This is a Reddick kind of track. He won his last Xfinity race here. I could easily see a 15th place or so and that should be all it takes to beat this group. Risky, but worth it at +300.

UPDATE: No qualifying. Chastain, Sieg and Martins should be chalk plays so will want to have them all in cash games. Real hard to pick a dominator, lean Allgaier.

This is a tough race to predict. Unlike last year when Bell, Custer and Reddick would dominate everything, we've got a group of 6-8 guys who could be out front this year. My Top 4 heading into tomorrow are Chastain, Briscoe, Allgaier and Gragson in that order. But it wouldn't shock me if Brandon Jones, Cindric, Hemric or even Harrison Burton leads during the race. So the front end is wide open and I expect to see a couple of different leaders throughout the race.

We've also got weather uncertainty with rain a possibility. If qualifying gets rained out, I think we'd go by owner points from last year, which would put Chastain in the #10 at the back. They would be mega chalk plays at that point.

I like Ray Black Jr, Brandon Brown and Alex Labbe as solid mid-tier guys. I'd hope each of them could finish just inside the Top 20.

In the under $6,500 range, I'm most interested in Jess Little, Timmy Hill and B.J. McLeod.

I'll try to post a quick update when we have more information and/or a starting order on Saturday.

Final Update -- KB and Bilicki all good. No Hill. Ruch, Rohrbaugh and Poole cheap options. Rhodes and Gilliland in the Hill-Ankrum tier. Friesen an option too with poor qualifying. There is so much value down low, can even go Busch and Chastain if you want two studs. I'm leaning that way.

KB down to -160 to win. Would hit that.


Thursday: I'll have some DFS focused material up by Friday morning. For now, I'm hitting Kyle Busch -175 to win the race. He's very likely to win this unless he has a mechanical failure. He's won the last two Spring Vegas races in the Truck Series. And he won all five Truck Series races he entered in 2019. More later . . . 

Friday Morning Update: Very happy to be done with Daytona and the havoc at super speedways. Here are my pre-practice and qualifying notes/targets (I'll try to give a brief update after practice and qualifying Friday afternoon):

• Kyle Busch - All in here. Won all five Truck races he did last year, including a dominating performance in the Spring race at Las Vegas. At the four races he did at 1.5 mile tracks last year, he led at least 92 laps in each race and scored at least 81 DK points in each race. That's really hard to do with how short Truck races are. Barring a mechanical failure, he should dominate. Busch will eat a ton of salary, so I'm focusing the rest of the way on lower priced options. There is plenty of value that will allow you to absorb Kyle's salary.
• Under $5K targets - Josh Bilicki and Timmy Hill. Bilicki will be running for the Reaume team. Their trucks are slow and qualify poorly but tend to be reliable and finish the race with a positive position difference. Bilicki had three Top 20 finishes at 1.5 mile tracks for this team last year with an average position difference of +8 in those races. He's a solid driver and a great option at near minimum price.  Hill is running for their small family owned team. The truck is generally pretty reliable and Timmy does a good job.  They raced three times at 1.5 mile tracks last year and finished 11th and 16th in two of those races. The third race was a 24th place finish but still scored 21 DK points. As long as he doesn't qualify too well, he's another great choice at near minimum price.
• $6K-$7K - I like a handful of guys in this range, including Brennan Poole, Tanner Gray and Ty Majeski.  Poole was very strong at 1.5 mile tracks last year and had four Top 10 finishes there. The issue with him will be whether he qualifies too well and, therefore, carries to much downside risk. Gray and Majeski don't have a ton of experience or track record, but both are with very solid mid-level teams and should have reliable trucks. If either qualifies outside the Top 20, they'd be strong plays.
• Austin Hill - Tyler Ankrum - I really like the group from Austin Hill down to Tyler Ankrum. All of them are good enough drivers in good equipment. Whichever of them don't qualify well offer good cash game plays. There's no way Ankrum or Eckes should be sub-$8k.
• Above Austin Hill - The guys above Austin Hill will probably qualify very well and be too risky for me. Plus they're unlikely to get many laps led or fastest laps with KB in the field. They'll come into play for cash games only if they qualify poorly.
• A few wagers I'm looking at:
  • Already listed Kyle -175 to win.
  • Zane Smith +140 over Todd Gilliland. This is a 50/50 bet for me, so I'll take the +140 side.
  • Christian Eckes -135 over Matt Crafton. Eckes ran 3rd at his two races at 1.5 mile tracks last year, including the Vegas Fall race. He's in top notch KBM equipment with the best crew chief (Rudy Fugle) in the garage. Crafton is solid, but rarely runs in the Top 5.
  • Eckes -135 over Johnny Sauter. Sauter is as likely to crash as finish in the Top 5, so I'll take Eckes again.

Thank God it appears we've escaped the worst possible outcome from the end of race crash at Daytona. Since I started this blog, I've said every super speedway race that the style of racing is just stupid. When you purposely bunch all the cars up, it's no surprise that half the field doesn't even finish the race and that half the cars end up on the back of a wrecker truck. It's only a matter of time until one of these vicious crashes has the worst outcome that we feared tonight. Austin Dillon got lucky a few years back when he barrel rolled across the finish line. Ryan Newman got lucky tonight. Will the next guy get lucky again?

I don't care how much the fans love it. NASCAR needs to change the way they race at super speedways.

And now the main event. I've covered the plate track strategy for cash games throughout the week, so let's get into a few specifics I'm focused on:

• I think the very back of the field is exactly what we want for cash games at a super speedway. We've got veteran drivers with teams that are likely to be very patient, ride conservatively in the back of the field and wait for carnage to strike up front.
  • Reed Sorenson and BJ McLeod had decent runs on super speedways last year with the same teams they are running with on Sunday.
  • LaJoie finished in the Top 18 in all four super speedway races last year.
  • Joey Gase is a veteran with a lot of super speedway races in the Cup and Xfinity Series under his belt.
• To round out the roster, focus on the 28th-31st starting spots. I think each of these drivers will be pretty heavily owned with Kyle Busch probably leading the way. My only reservation with Busch and Bowyer is that they will probably very quickly move up through the field and be running in the highest crash danger zone. For cash games, I tend to prefer someone like Ragan or Preece because they're more likely to hang back in a relatively safe position and let the race play out a bit. That said, Busch or Bowyer could win the race and score a whole lot of points doing so, so they're a somewhat risky fade.

A couple of betting ideas:

• Look at some head to head match ups. I'm seeing some pretty good options at +130 or better. The reality is that it's not much more than a coin flip as to which guy is going to finish ahead of the other at a super speedway. Any time you can get +130 or even more on a reputable driver, it's a good play.
  • Bowman and Bowyer +140 against Keselowski
  • Bowman, Bowyer and Johnson +155 against Hamlin
  • Custer, Bell, Buescher +150 against Kurt Busch
• You can also look at some race win long shots. Anything can happen and some good drivers on great teams have some really long odds:
  • Almirola, Bowyer and DiBennedetto +2600 and Eric Jones +3050 are a couple that I'll lay a few bucks on. 

Pretty good on the Trucks side yesterday. Had Jordan Anderson as the first guy in the cash game pool and nailed the Enfinger +1600 to win. Not much new to say on Xfinity. Same plate track strategy to use guys starting from about 25th on back for all cash games. I'll try to update tomorrow after qualifying with a few names or positions to focus on. 

Haven't seen much worth while on the betting side yet. I did throw a combined $25 at three long shots to WIN - Ryan Sieg +5500, Jeremy Clements +6600 and Brett Moffitt +8000. View this as lighting the money on fire, but if you happen to hit, it's $500+.

Note for new readers and a reminder for returning fans -- my Daytona analysis is much different and shorter than other tracks. By and large, I stick to the plate track strategy I discuss more below. Please use the comments section for any questions or feedback you have. Thanks for reading and check back for updates before the race on Friday.

Friday Update 2: Start cash game pool from Jordan Anderson in 23rd on back. Plenty of good options in the last ten starting spots. Friesen probably needs to be used in cash games, but full fade for me in tournaments. That team used to buy trucks from a bigger team (GMS) and now they brought the operation in house for this season. I am concerned especially early in the season. Like Creed, Rhodes and Enfinger in tournaments.

Friday Update 1: A few bets that I like a bit. As always with Daytona, keep the amount low because so much is random.

• Crafton +135 over Moffitt. At Daytona, it's a flip of the coin which one will finish ahead, so I like the +135 odds. Moffitt has been unlucky here -- wrecked and finished 22nd or worse in the last three races at Daytona. Crafton finished ahead of him in all three of those races.
• Enfinger +1600 and Rhodes +2000 to win. Over the last seven plate track races, Enfinger has finished in the Top 10 five times with one win. He's got as good a shot as anyone to win but has better odds then a group of 7-8 other guys who have about the same chance of winning. Rhodes is the only guy with a championship caliber team that is as high as +2000. 
• John Hunter Nemechek +2000 to win. He only runs a few truck races a year and they are all "checkers or wreckers" efforts. He doesn't care about points or finishing position - just winning. So I'll throw a few bucks at +2000. But, understand, he's much more likely to wreck then win. [OR NOT - A SURPRISING DID NOT QUALIFY]

Main Thursday Post
Truck races at Daytona are almost always crazy. They can sometimes be tame until the last 10-15 laps, but chaos seems to reign by race end. Here's a sample from the last three Daytona truck races:

• 2019 -- 7 wrecks. Only 9 of 32 trucks finish on the lead lap. Of those 9, 4 of them started in the back half of the field and only 2 of them started in the Top 10.
• 2018 -- 4 wrecks. 15 of 32 trucks finish on the lead lap. Of those 15, 8 started in the back half of the field and only 4 of them started in the Top 10.
• 2017 -- 4 wrecks. 13 of 32 trucks finish on the lead lap. Of those 13, 6 started in the back half of the field and 5 of them started in the Top 10.
• Bottom line -- Only about one-third of the field will finish on the lead lap. And it's more likely a truck starting in the back half of the field will finish on the lead lap as compared to a truck starting in the Top 10.

So, as far as cash game, 50/50, double-up strategy goes, this is clearly a race where the "plate track strategy" tends to work. You want to start the best trucks possible starting the farthest back in the field. You're focus should be on drivers starting 15th (at best, maybe more like 20th) on back. The negative position difference downside of starting a driver closer to the front is just too great to make it work for cash games.

It's hard to identify any particular drivers since we won't know qualifying results until shortly before the race. Here are a few guys that have done well recently at "plate tracks" -- but, remember, luck is a huge part of these races so you can't read too much into recent results. And, at least in the case of Enfinger and Hill, they'll probably start too far forward to be considered for cash games.

• Grant Enfinger - Been running at the end of the last 6 plate track races with 4 Top 10 finishes.
• Austin Hill - 11th or better in his 4 plate track races in the Truck Series.
• Austin Wayne Self - Mechanical issue in the last plate track race, but running at the end in the 5 before that.
• Spencer Boyd - 13th, 4th and 1st place finishes in three Truck Series starts on plate tracks.

And now a few folks I'd like to avoid if at all possible:

• Natalie Decker - Frequently referred to as Natalie Wrecker, she's not someone I'm ever eager to use in a cash game setting. Fine for larger tournaments because she's actually in decent equipment with a decent team.
• Tate Fogleman - Little experience in the Truck Series and no super speedway experience. His background is as a short track racer.
• Todd Peck - Not a lot of experience and just too many question marks.
• Clay Greenfield - Concerned because his truck crapped out on pit road during the first practice. He got a few laps in during second practice, but I'm always concerned when a truck from a lesser funded team like this has gremlins during practice.

​

Short post for this one because I don't mess much with this "race". It's a really long season with over 90 races when all three series are considered. A key part of bankroll management is knowing when to take it easy. With a field of only 18 cars this week, it's really not a smart idea to play much (if any) DFS because lineups will be so similar. Especially with the 11 and 22 sure to be in almost every lineup, most H2H and cash games will come down to whether you have one different driver then your opponent(s) and how that driver does. Not the risk I want to take out of the box in a new season.

If you want to burn some money this week, I think the best idea is to lay $10 or so on a copule of the long shots to win the race. With only 18 cars in the field and a wreck almost certain to take out a chunk of the field, we could very well see an odd ball winner. I'm seeing Eric Jones +2000, Austin Dillon +2500 and Ryan Newman +2800. Others of note Jimmie Johnson/Alex Bowman +1600, Kyle Larson +2000 and Kurt Busch +1400. That's where I'd focus any money you want to fire this week.

ADDED: I'm also seeing a few head to head driver match ups approach +150 odds. For example, Kyle Larson +145 to finish in front of Ryan Blaney. That's another potential area to hit given how random the outcome is likely to be.