POST RACE UPDATE:  Hit all greens this week.  100% winners in cash games using the stars and scrubs approach I outlined on Saturday night.  Was a great way to finish off a very successful season.  I'll have a season-ending post or two in the next week or so to wrap things up for 2018.  Then I'll take some time away to think about what to do with the blog for next season.  If you have something you really like and want to continue -- or something new you would like to see next year -- please leave a comment or message me on Twitter @fantasynascargu

Thanks to all who have followed the blog throughout the season! 

SATURDAY NIGHT UPDATE:  Here we are -- the last Saturday update of the season.  I've settled on a lineup approach that I don't generally like.  What I'm seeing this week is a stars and scrubs approach.  What landed me there is a combination of (1) guys at the top end who I really like and think give us the best chance to dominate, (2) guys at the bottom who offer pretty decent value, and (3) what turns out to be a lack of value in the middle because guys like Eric Jones, Aric Almirola, etc. qualified in the Top 10 and don't seem to offer much dominator or position difference upside.  So here is the group of guys I'm really focused on:

• The Stars -- Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, Joey Logano and Kyle Larson.  It wouldn't be crazy to add Kevin Harvick in there but there are enough issues there to keep me from using him in a cash game.  He has the highest salary and has looked the worst of this group on Friday and Saturday.  I'm also concerned that he's either unable or unwilling to run the high line.  That said, it would be surprising but not entirely shocking to see him go out and run a great race on Sunday.  So I'd recommend him for tournament use, not a cash game.
  • I'm pretty set on using Logano and Larson.  Logano has looked great all weekend and led basically every category in final practice.  Larson has led 100+ laps in each of the last two races here and runs the high line better than anyone else.  He showed very well on the overall average and 15-lap chart in final practice.
  • Between Busch and Truex, it's very tough.  Truex was great here last Fall and was just a notch below Logano in final practice.  In Busch's favor, he has the preferred #1 pit stall, an exceptional pit crew and showed excellent speed in final practice as well.  Given the turmoil with it being the last race for the #78 team, and the #18 team's likely advantage on pit road, I'd give the slight edge to Busch.  I could very easily see him leapfrogging a few guys during a pit stop under caution to take the lead and rack up a bunch of laps led points after he gets out front.
• ​The Scrubs -- Ross Chastain, Regan Smith, Ty Dillon and Landon Cassill.  I really like Chastain starting dead last and being dirt cheap.  He's got some very weak cars in front of him and is very likely to be a +6/7 position difference guy at a minimum.  Regan Smith has been very steady of late finishing in the mid-20s.  That's all we would need from him here.  Same deal with Ty.  He's been strong of late and he ran well here last year until suffering a cut tire very late in the race.  Cassill is also an option -- particularly if you prefer to use Harvick and need max savings on the bottom end.
• Denny Hamlin -- This seemed so odd to me that I had to point it out.  Denny Hamlin -- who starts from pole on Sunday -- also started from the pole in this race it 2015 and 2017.  In those two races combined, he did not lead a single lap.  In 2015, he finished 10th without leading a lap.  In 2017, he finished 9th without leading a lap.  That's just remarkable to me that a pole sitter could go two races without leading a single lap.  The take away -- fade like crazy in cash games and reserve as a large tournament play.   

Bittersweet to have the last race of the year upon us.  I'm very excited as a Nascar fan for the race itself.  We've got the very best teams racing for the championship just like it should be.  I'm also excited that we've been on a pretty good roll with our Fantasy Nascar picks here.  So it will be difficult to see the season come to an abrupt end Sunday afternoon.

267 laps on tap for Sunday, so 133.5 fastest lap points and 66.75 laps led points are up for grabs.  The last two Miami races have been remarkably similar when it comes to a pattern on the laps led.  Last season, Kyle Larson led 145 laps with Martin Truex coming next at 78 laps led.  In 2016, Kyle Larson again led the way with 132 laps led with Kevin Harvick coming next at 79 laps led.  In 2015, Brad Keselowski led the way with 86 laps led with Joey Logano following at 72 laps led.  So we're looking to grab at least one and preferably both of the Dominators we've seen here in the last two races in particular.

Here are the guys I'm focused on -- many of which will be no surprise:

• Kevin Harvick $12,500 -- The most expensive but also the guy I think is most likely to dominate and win.  In the last three races here he's finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th.  He did not lead any laps last year, but led 79 and 46 laps the prior two years.
• Kyle Busch $11,800 -- Finished 1st, 6th and 2nd in the last three races here.  Led 43 laps last year and 41 in 2015.  The only thing to give pause is that he's never really dominated in any of those three races.
• Martin Truex $11,300 -- Won the championship race here last year while leading 78 laps.  He bears watching but, as of now, I would say he's 4th (at best) on my list of likely dominators.  He seems to be lacking the very top end speed and I've got to imagine all the turmoil of this team closing up shop after the race is taking its toll.  While it would be quite the story for these guys to go out on top, it just doesn't seem realistic right now.
• Joey Logano $10,600 -- 6th, 4th and 4th in the last three races here.  It's been three years since he led a meaningful amount of laps here -- 72 in 2015.  He's been very strong in the last three races at 1.5 mile tracks.  4th place with 46 laps led at Vegas, 8th place with 100 laps led at Kansas and 3rd place with 54 laps led at Texas.
• Kyle Larson $10,000 -- As noted above, he's dominated the last two races here by blowing away the field with laps led.  He's finished 5th, 2nd and 3rd in the last three races here.  Priced well below the Big Three, he is a very strong target heading into the weekend.
• Brad Keselowski $9,400 -- He's been extremely consistent and strong at the 1.5 mile tracks.  I wouldn't count him out just because he's not in the running for the championship.
• Ryan Blaney, Aric Almirola and Eric Jones $8,600-$8,200 -- All remain under priced in my view.  They remain in the sweet spot to construct a strong and well balanced lineup.
• Austin Dillon $7,700 -- Getting priced up a bit.  But he's finished 14th, 12th and 11th in the last three races here and he's been running well lately.
• AJ Allmendinger $6,500 -- Three straight Top 20 finishes here.  But it's his last race for this team and that causes me some concern about the focus, etc. during this weekend.
• I'll identify my favorite bottom end salary savers after we see where everyone qualifies.

We'll have updates leading into Sunday's race so check back often Friday, Saturday and pre-race on Sunday.

SATURDAY NIGHT UPDATE:  Here we go.  Want to clear up one thing the NBC guys got wrong during final practice.  Per Nascar.com, Martin Truex will keep his 13th starting spot.  He is NOT going to the rear for the start of the race as Rick Allen stated near the end of practice.  As of now, the only car going to the rear is Paul Menard for going to a back-up car following his wreck in final practice.  I still don't like Truex much, but he retains some contrarian value in a large tournament if you want a role of the dice.  On to the way I am looking at my lineup now:

• Harvick -- Just lock him in.  Car was a beast and he should be 100% owned in cash games.  You can fade him in a contrarian lineup for a large field tournament but otherwise I'd lock him in.
  
• I like Kyle Busch and will have him on some tournament lineups, but he's too expensive to pair with Harvick in cash games.  As I said in the first post, I'm looking for 2-3 guys from the $8,100-$8,900 sweet spot I identified.  Love Eric Jones.  Really like Almirola, Hamlin (usually strong at these flatter tracks) and Kurt Busch.  Mostly off Clint Bowyer.
  
• I'm pretty locked in on William Byron starting 19th for $6,500.  He ran well here in the Spring and had two very strong Phoenix races last year in the Xfinity Series.  I'm hoping for something like 12th-14th with +5-7 position difference.
  
• I don't like anyone beneath Byron, but you'll probably be forced to take one of them.  Ragan or Ty Dillon but I don't like it.
  
• I'd love to find room for Chase Elliott, but I just can't get comfortable with the guys I'd have to take to make that salary work.  Strong option in a tournament lineup where you fade Harvick. 

So many story lines heading into the final cutoff race before the Championship Race next week in Miami.  We'll cover all the drivers of note, but it's really hard to bet against Kevin Harvick in this situation once again.  See all we have here and then be sure to check back Sunday morning for our final update.

312 laps in Sunday's race, so we have 156 fastest lap points and 78 laps led points available.  In the past few races here, we've tended to see two drivers separate themselves as the dominators.  The main dominator has led about 150 laps with the secondary dominator leading about 50-100 laps.  We'll need at least one of those dominators in our lineup this weekend to hit those cash games.  Onto the driver targets:
​

• Kevin Harvick -- He's the most expensive driver this weekend, but also the most likely dominator and very likely to be 80%+ owned in cash games.  He has 3 wins in the last 7 races here and hasn't finished worse than 6th in any of those races.  He'll start from the pole on Sunday.
• Kyle Busch -- He comes in at $700 less than Harvick and is probably the second most likely dominator.  In the Spring race, he started 7th, led the most laps (128), had the most fastest laps (65 vs. 56 for Harvick) and finished 2nd.  At this time, I'm thinking Harvick should headline a cash lineup with Busch being a strong option to headline a tournament lineup.
• Chase Elliott -- If someone other than Harvick or Kyle Busch is going to win or dominate on Sunday, I'm guessing it will be Chase.  He starts 2nd, which might make him a little too risky for a cash game.  But he's finished in the Top 3 here the last 2 races and is a strong contender to run near the front again.
• Clint Bowyer (16th), Kurt Busch (14th), Denny Hamlin (10th), Eric Jones (7th) and Aric Almirola (18th) -- All of these guys have strong profiles and have DK salaries between $8,100-$8,900.  I see this as a sweet spot for this race and will probably look to have 2 of these guys in a cash lineup.  All factors considered, my favorites as of Friday night are Almirola and Busch.  In the last 2 races here, Almirola has started 22nd and worked his way up to finished 9th last Fall and 7th this Spring.  Kurt is just a model on consistency this year.  In the Spring, he started 23rd and finished 10th, so had a very strong run.  Eric Jones remains too damn cheap, while I don't love him starting 7th, he's still under strong consideration for my cash lineup.
• Ty Dillon -- In 4 Cup Series races here, he's finished 16th or better in 3 of them.  Starting 28th with a $5,600 salary makes him a solid play here.
• Michael McDowell and David Ragan are also some salary saving options I might have some interest in.

SATURDAY NIGHT UPDATE: News already that Truex, Suarez, Buescher and DiBenedetto will go to the rear.  I think this is actually a sneaky good thing for Buescher in tournaments.  He's a solid play at his $6,200 salary notwithstanding this setback.  He's been strong at the 1.5 tracks and the JTG team is using Hendrick engines this weekend.  I think it takes the other three guys off the table entirely.

For cash games, I'm pretty well set on the top side of my roster at Harvick, Larson and Eric Jones.  NBC's practice coverage showed just how consistent Harvick was on long runs.  He starts 3rd and I expect he'll be leading the race by Lap 20 or so.  He's in a great spot to dominate.  Larson starts 22nd and gives you great position difference upside.  He's been very strong at 1.5 mile tracks despite typically starting outside the Top 10.  He has 2 starts outside the Top 20 at 1.5 mile tracks this year and finished 4th (with 101 laps led) and 3rd (no laps led) in those 2 races.  Jones was also very fast in practice and he has Top 8 finishes in 6 of the last 8 races at 1.5 mile tracks.  (I am still toying with the idea of rolling out both Harvick and Kyle Busch.  I think it does too much harm to the bottom of your lineup to work.  But I'm still mulling it over since Kyle B is so damn consistent at the 1.5 mile tracks and can always jump up and dominate a race.  It worries me to fade him -- but less so than the fear of fading Harvick.)

There are different ways to go with the rest of the lineup.  You can take one or two sub $6K guys and try to get another potential dominator like Keselowski, Almirola or Blaney.  If you go that route, my favorite sub $6k guys are Ty Dillon, Michael McDowell and Corey LaJoie.  Or you can go more balanced with guys in the $7K range.  In that area, I like Allmendinger and Stenhouse the best.  I'm leaning toward the more balanced approach in cash games and the idea of using multiple sub $6K guys in tournaments only.

​Good luck!  

Another pretty nice week last week.  Cole Whitt coming up big with a 24th place finish, Allmendinger 14th and our Sunday update man Martin Truex all the way to 3rd with laps led and fastest laps.  Would have liked to see more from Kyle Busch, Paul Menard and Austin Dillon, but you can't get all the breaks.

Texas is 334 laps, so lots of laps led and fastest lap points on the table again.  Also, as you look back at track history, remember we had a repave and reconfiguration after the 2016 season.  So only the 2017 races and Spring 2018 were on this layout and pavement.  We also have a new tire compound this weekend to add to the mix.  Here are some guys I am focused on heading into practice and qualifying on Friday and Saturday.

• The Big Three, of course.  Since the repave, Harvick has finished 4th, 1st and 2nd with 77, 38 and 87 laps led.  Kyle Busch won in the Spring with 116 laps led.  Truex wrecked in the Spring.  But prior to that he had 6 consecutive Top 10 finishes and had a four race streak where he led at least 49 laps.  In the first two races following the repave, Truex finished 8th and 2nd with 49 and 107 laps led.
• Ryan Blaney at $8,700 DK.  In the last two races here he's finished 6th and 5th.  In the first race following the repave, he finished 12th, but let 148 laps.
• Aric Almirola at $8,100 DK.  This seems like a really low salary to me.  He's finished in the Top 10 in the last three 1.5 mile tracks.  And before that at Chicago, he led 70 laps and probably had the best car for a bulk of that race.
• Paul Menard at $7,900 DK.  He's been running very well on the 1.5 mile tracks lately.  He was running on legitimate speed in the Top 10 at the last 1.5 mile track at Kansas until he sustained damage from a random collision on pit road.
• Jamie McMurray at $7,100 DK.  McMurray has run well here and particularly so since the repave.  In those 3 races, he has 2 Top 10 finishes including a 3rd place finish with +21 position difference this Spring.
• Ty Dillion at $5,600 DK.  2 Top 20 finishes in the 3 races since the repave.  In 4 Cup Series starts here, Ty has finished 20th, 17th, 24th and 13th with a collective +20 position difference.
• Michael McDowell at $5,500 DK.  In 3 races since the repave, he's finished 23rd, 21st and 14th.

I think some more opportunities will open as the weekend goes along.  None of the other big time drivers ($9K+ guys) are standing out to me on paper right now.  But I'm sure a few of them will separate themselves by showing good speed in practice and/or qualifying.  We'll post the final update very late Saturday night.