SEE FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE AT BOTTOM

I'll be posting more content for Saturday's Xfinity Series race late Friday night after we see what happens during Friday's two practice sessions.  For now, I'll leave you with a few notes to get started:

• Discount last year's Pocono results.  Last year at Pocono, the Xfinity teams ran a high down force package with a restrictor plate and aero ducts.  It was part of the real world testing done before introducing that package for Cup Series points races this season.  Driver history at the track is not going to be as important this week because we have less relevant data.
• There's only 100 laps this week, so only 75 total points available for fastest laps and laps led.  We also sometimes see different pit strategies at Pocono (because if you're close to the leader, you can pit under green and not go down a lap) which can spread laps led and fastest laps among several different drivers.  So, we're unlikely to see real big scores from anyone.
• Tyler Reddick has to be considered the Top Dog in the Series right now.  He has finished in the Top 4 in eight straight races and has won 2 of the last 3 races.
• Justin Allgaier seems to be rounding into form.  In the last three races (excluding Talladega) he's finished 3rd (Richmond), 2nd (Dover) and 2nd (Charlotte).
• Noah Gragson ($8,400), Jeffrey Earnhardt ($8,200), Michael Annett ($8,000) and Brandon Jones ($7,800) may stand out as values this week.  They are all in top level equipment with top level engines which is critical at Pocono.  If any of them don't qualify well, they will probably become must haves for a cash game lineup.

​I'll have more after we see what happens on Friday.

FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE

• Tyler Reddick will start the race from the rear of the field due to a transmission change after final practice.  I think he'll still run a qualifying lap but I'm not sure how much effort he'll put into it.  His car has great speed and he'll probably be a factor for the win.  But, even in the best scenario, it's hard to imagine him getting many laps led or fastest lap points.  He'll probably end up being a tournament only play unless he also has an official starting spot that is really deep in the field.
• Matt Mills spun in final practice and hit the inside wall pretty hard.  Reports were that he is going to a backup car.  I expect this will be a pretty poor quality backup car that may not be suited to run the full race.  I'm avoiding him.
• Cole Custer had the best 1 lap time, 5 lap average and 10 lap average in final practice.  I expect him to battle for the win and be a strong Dominator candidate.
• Christopher Bell was just a tick behind Custer and Reddick in final practice both in single lap time and 5 and 10 lap averages.  For 5 lap average, Custer was 53.32, Reddick was 53.40 and Bell was 53.93.  For 10 lap average, they were in the same order with times of 53.63, 53.64 and 54.00.  So Bell's fall off over the longer run was a bit less compared to Reddick and Custer.  I'd rank him as the 2nd best Dominator candidate behind Custer.  If Bell were to start on pole, I'd probably bump him up to #1.
• Michael Annett seemed like the best of the rest in final practice.  He was 5th on the single lap time, but 4th on the 5 and 10 lap average.  His 5 lap average was 53.97 and his 10 lap average was 54.24, so you can see he's not too far off the Big Three.  He's very reasonably priced at $8K.  He and Jeffrey Earnhardt are likely targets in that range.
• I don't really like a lot of the low salary guys.
  • I've used ​Chad Finchum and Timmy Hill several times this year but those MBM teams are very erratic and tough to use in cash games.  Hill ran only 4 practice laps and Finchum had 14.  If they start really far back, maybe they are viable, but I'm not real comfortable with them.  One of the MBM crew chiefs said on Twitter that both cars were running new engines last week at Charlotte and both of them failed very early in the race.  Finchum finished 38th and Hill was 35th.
  • I'm OK with Josh Williams.  He should be good for about a 20th place finish and that's about where he ran both practices.  It's a solid team and I normally like both their drivers.  This week the second driver (in the #90) is Ronnie Bassett Jr.  He was way off the pace in first practice (4.5 seconds per lap slower than the lead cars).  He was a little faster in final practice (3.2 seconds off the pace).  It's possible I'd use him if he starts way back.  At least you know the team is trying to run all the laps.  But don't expect very much.
  • Jeremy Clements showed decent speed in both practices.  Most of the mid pack guys were 2 seconds or more off the fastest times.  Clements was closer to 1.5 seconds per lap off the top times.  He's finished 7 of the 11 races this year between 13th-18th place.
  • Stephen Leicht and Joey Gase are two I might consider if they qualify 30th or worse.

Here are some lineup strategy and driver target notes to help you build winning lineups for the Coca Cola 600.  As always, I'm focusing more on a cash game, 50/50 or double up contest.

• First, be aware there is tech inspection Sunday before the race.  Unlike some recent "impound races," if a car fails tech on Sunday, it will keep it's official starting position for Fantasy Nascar purposes, but it will have to start at the rear of the field.  You will almost certainly not want to use a car starting from the rear unless it's a punt play with an official starting position already in the 30s.
• Starting on the cheap end of things, for the combination of price and likely performance, I like Bubba Wallace and Corey LaJoie the best.  LaJoie has consistently scored about 18-20 points at the 1.5 mile tracks, which is fine for his $5,200 salary.  Wallace looked faster and more energized last weekend.  He should gain a few spots and finish about 25th or so.  Starting from 29th and 30th, there is very little downside with these two -- especially considering the low quality rides starting at the very back of the field.
  • If you have the extra salary to bump up to David Ragan, I would probably take that.  He ran some pretty decent times in practice and was the fastest of this group.  That said, he's only got one finish above 25th in the four 1.5 mile track races so far this year, so I don't think you have to have him and I wouldn't sacrifice elsewhere to get him over a guy like Bubba.
  • Ty Dillon has been a hot name lately.  The numbers show that he's done his best work at the super speedways and short tracks this season.  His four Top 20 runs have come at the two super speedway races, Bristol and Martinsville.  Conversely, at the four 1.5 mile track races, he's finished 25th or worse three times.  And his DK point totals in those four races are 0, 11, 16 and 24.  He's $6,700 and the most expensive of the lower end drivers, so I'm shying away because you should be able to hit those same point totals for $1K less salary.
• There's not a whole lot of value in the $7K-$8.5K range.  Most of those guys are starting too high and, therefore, carry too much risk for a cash game.  Maybe Buescher, but 15th or so is a best case scenario for him.
• I think a lot of the focus will be on the next group from $8.6K-$10K.  I really like three guys there.
  • Eric Jones starting 16th.  In final practice he was 3rd on the 15 lap chart at 30.187/lap.  He went up to 2nd on the 20 lap chart at 30.228/lap.  That's showing almost no fall off and he was just .02 seconds per lap off the fastest pace set by Kyle Busch on that 20 lap average.  Plus, in the last two 1.5 mile track races, Jones has finished 3rd and 4th.  Overall, he has three Top 7 finishes in the four races on those tracks this season.  Finally, the entire Joe Gibbs group was fast in practice and has performed well on the 1.5 mile tracks this season.
  • Denny Hamlin starting 20th.  Same story for this Joe Gibbs driver.  He was 2nd on the 15 lap chart at 30.178/lap and swapped with Jones down to 3rd on the 20 lap chart at 30.324/lap.  Denny also has a strong history at Charlotte.  He has finished in the Top 5 in the last three Coca Cola 600 races.  And he has Top 5 finishes in 5 of the last 6 races overall at the Charlotte oval.
  • Kyle Larson starting 25th.  He's just too good to be that far back.  He should be at least a +10 position difference guy and has the potential to work into the Top 10 or Top 5 over the long race.  He hasn't been great at the 1.5 mile tracks this year.  But at the last race in Kansas he did work his way from 35th starting spot all the way up to 8th.
• On the very top end, I really like everyone in the $10K+ range.
  • Keselowski is similar to Larson and offers big + position difference upside combined with race winning potential.  I'd prefer BK over Larson if you have the salary to do it.
  • Elliott was real fast at the last 1.5 mile track in Kansas.  He's now led 35+ laps at the last two 1.5 mile track races.
  • Truex has a strong history in the 600.  Last year he finished 2nd.  Two years ago, he was 3rd and led 233 laps.  Three years ago, he was a beast and won the thing while leading 392 of 400 laps.  In 2015, he finished 5th and led 131 laps.  However, he's struggled a bit at the last two 1.5 mile tracks (finishing outside the Top 10).  And he wasn't quite as fast as his JGR teammates in practice.
  • Harvick has the best numbers at the 1.5 mile tracks this year.  He was the best car at Kansas, but lost the race on pit road.  He's finished the other three 1.5 mile track races in the Top 8 and he's led at least 45 laps and scored at least 38 fastest laps in 3 of the 4 1.5 mile track races this year.  He wasn't great in practice and he's been only decent in the 600 in years past.  He hasn't had anything close to a dominating performance in any of the last four years at the 600.
  • Finally, Kyle Busch.  He killed it on the long runs in final practice.  Top of the chart on 10 lap, 15 lap and 20 lap average.  Last year, he won the 600 and led 377 of 400 laps.  Two years ago, he finished 2nd and led 63 laps.  He's had speed all year at the 1.5 mile tracks.  He's my top play and top choice to dominate.

Here are some notes for Saturday's XFinity race following two practices on Thursday.

• Jeb Burton is laughably under priced at $6,800.  He's in the #8 JR Motorsports car which is top end equipment.  The #8 car has had six different drivers this season, but has still finished in the Top 10 in 7 of 10 races.  And it has only one finish lower than 13th.  In the three 1.5 mile track races this season, the #8 car has finished in the Top 5 twice.  One of those Top 5 finishes was at Texas where Jeb was in the car.  He started 6th and finished 5th for 41 DK points.  Regardless of driver, and no disrespect to these guys, but it's just dumb for this car to be priced less than guys like Ray Black Jr, Jeremy Clements and David Starr.
• The three big guns (Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell and Cole Custer) all looked strong in practice.  I'd be shocked if the race winner and highest DK point scorer does not come from this group of three.
  • Reddick led both practice sessions in single lap speed.  In final practice, he also led all drivers in 5 lap, 10 lap, 15 lap and 20 lap average.  At the three 1.5 mile track races this season, Reddick has two Top 5 finishes, has led laps and scored at least 20 fastest laps in each race, and averaged 62 DK points (with a low of 58 and a high of 65, so very consistent).
  • Bell was 2nd in single lap time and 10 lap average in final practice.  He ran over an elevated manhole cover in first practice and damaged the splitter, so that took away from his track time there.  It was fully repaired and shouldn't cause any issues on Saturday.  Bell dominated two of the three 1.5 mile track races this year.  In Atlanta, he won, led 142 laps, and scored 108 DK points.  In Texas, he finished 3rd, but led 127 laps, and scored 85 DK points.  At the other 1.5 mile track race in Las Vegas, he led only 3 laps, but had 44 fastest laps and 44 DK points.  So I guess you could say he hasn't been as consistent as Reddick at these tracks, but that's because he has two blow ups and week winning performance in those races.  I do like Reddick the most because the extremely hot conditions Saturday afternoon should lead to a slick race track which suits his style.  But Bell is close behind and it would be no surprise to see him dominate as well.  
  • Custer was 2nd in single lap time in the first practice and 4th in single lap time in final practice.  His 10 lap average in final practice was third -- right behind Reddick and Bell.  In the first two 1.5 mile track races this year, Custer scored 49 and 46 DK points.  He got caught up in a wreck at Texas and finished 34th for -13 DK points in the most recent 1.5 mile track race.  Custer sounded like he really liked the way his car felt throughout practice.  But he hasn't shown quite the same level of consistency or domination at the 1.5 mile tracks as compared to Reddick and Bell.  So I'd rank him 3rd on this list.
  • Given the value in Burton and others we mention below, it's possible you can use all three of these guys in a lineup together.  I would think you'll need at least two of them and I've got them ranked here in the order I see them heading into qualifying in Saturday.
• None of the mid-level guys are sticking out to me.  I think the Big Three are going to dominate the laps led and fastest laps.  So the only way a mid-level guy can do a lot of damage is if they start further back in the field and can get you a lot of + position difference points. 
  • Of the mid-level guys, Justin Haley, Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric looked best in practice.
  • Of note, Cindric has finished in the Top 6 in 6 of the last 7 races.  BUT, his worst three finishes of the season 10th, 22nd and 11th came at the three 1.5 mile track races.
  • Briscoe has finished in the Top 8 in each of the last 8 races.  He's finished 15th, 8th and 4th at the three 1.5 mile track races this season.
  • Jeffrey Earnhardt really struggled on Thursday.  He was 18th in first practice and 17th in final practice.  Both times he was about a full second per lap off the leader's pace.  That should not be the case for a top end Joe Gibbs Racing car.  He also did not make even a 10 lap run at any point in practice -- which is an indicator of just how uncomfortable he was in the car.  Conditions will be much hotter and slicker Saturday so I suspect this team is just hoping their set-up is the right play for those conditions.  I'll probably be staying away.
• On the low end, there's a few guys I'll be targeting pending their starting spot.
  • Josh Williams has finished 21st, 16th and 14th at the three 1.5 mile track races this season.  He's got sponsorship and ran a good number of laps in practice, so should be solid.
  • Timmy Hill has had some decent runs in the #66 car this season -- including a season high 16th place finish in the last race at Dover.  This car typically tries to run the full race and is not generally a start and park.
  • Chad Finchum has also had some decent runs in the #42 car this season and it, too, typically tries to run the whole race.  For Hill and Finchum, look for finishes in the 22nd-28th range.  So you can use them with confidence if they qualify from about 30th on back.
  • Dillon Bassett in the #90 had decent speed in practice.  He did a longer run in final practice and was the top speed on that chart among drivers not with a top team.  He was in this car one previous time this season and grabbed a 15th place finish at Richmond for 51 DK points.  He's easily the best of the dirt cheap options under $5K.

Saturday Update:  Noted on Twitter that it was a very profitable Truck race.  Actually my best return of the season so far.  I won't have anything for the Open or All Star Race tonight.  I'm spending the time working on Xfinity and the Coca Cola 600 next Saturday and Sunday.

Friday Afternoon Update:  (1) Josh Reaume was way off the pace in practice.  Like a full second slower then the next worst truck.  Use as a last resort only.  (2) Brennan Poole showed good speed and was one of only three trucks to do a 10 lap run in final practice.  That run was faster then Sheldon Creed's 10 lap run and not too far off Ben Rhodes.  He has also finished 13th and 9th in two of the three 1.5 mile tracks he's run at this year.  He's not dirt cheap ($7,300), so I don't know if he'll fit a cash game strategy, but he's on the radar in all formats and a good target if you do the largest $8 tournament because many will focus on more popular names in that price range.  (3) Sheldon Creed showed speed once again.  Now can he actually finish a race?  He's too risky for me in cash, but another tournament option.

I'll just be doing this one update this weekend for Friday's Truck Series race.  I won't be posting anything for Saturday's Cup Series All Star Race.

The big question for the Truck race is whether to use Kyle Busch.  He's priced way up at $16,000, but he's been worth it in all four Truck races he's entered this season.  He's won all four of those races and led at least 90 laps in each race.  He's thrown in a good number of fastest laps for good measure.  In the four races this year, he's scored 91, 98, 128 and 81 DK points.  The 128 is inflated because it was at Martinsville where they ran 250 laps -- allowing him to really rack up the laps led and fastest lap points.  The other three races are more relevant to this week because they were at 1.5 mile tracks with a more similar number of laps run -- 130-150 laps.  I think it's reasonable to use 85-90 DK points as a baseline for Kyle this week.

Looking at some of the other top tier drivers in the three 1.5 mile track races Kyle has been in this year, they are generally scoring about 40-50 DK points.  Sauter was 58, 39 and 50.  Moffitt was 40, 54 and 23.  Chastain 54, 41 and 43.  Friesen 21, 56 and 58.  Crafton 29, 58 and 47.  Enfinger 45, 51 and 45.

Doing some simple math, if you pair Kyle with a back marker punt like Jennifer Jo Cobb, you would have combined for exactly 117 points in all three races.  Odd coincidence to be sure.  By comparison, if you pair the best two of the other top tier drivers, you would have combined for 112, 112 and 108 points.  So in every situation Kyle and a punt beat the two best nearest competitors.  The reason is that when Kyle dominates these races, it is virtually complete and utter domination.  He quite literally is leading 75%+ of the laps and hitting about 50% of the fastest laps.  It leaves so few of those extra points for the rest of the field that the only way to catch him would be with massive position difference gains.  And we rarely see that in Truck races because the trucks starting in back are simply inferior equipment, cannot keep up with the pack and have a very limited upside.

One caveat is that Kyle and the punt probably cost a little more than the two best nearest competitors.  So, if you went the non-Kyle route you'd have a bit more to spend on the rest of your roster -- but not by too much.

There's risk in the Kyle strategy.  Since the race is only 200 miles, you're looking at about 130 laps which means Kyle needs to lead most of the laps and hit a bunch of fastest laps.  There is little margin for error.  While Kyle has hit those benchmarks in all his races this year, he hasn't been so consistent at Charlotte in years past.  He's done the Charlotte Truck race the last three years and only one time has he hit the milestones we would need.  In 2017, he won, led 90 laps and had 44 fastest laps.  That would hit the number we need.  But, in 2016, he led only 27 laps and hit 15 fastest laps.  And last year, in 2018, he didn't lead at all and hit only 20 fastest laps.

But, if you go the non-Kyle route, the risk is you don't pick the optimal combination of next best drivers.  When we compared the numbers above, we assumed you picked the two highest scorers among the next best tier.  But, if you hit the two worst scorers, you would have had only 50, 80 and 66 points combined between the two of them.  There's almost no way you're making up 40+ points on the Kyle lineup with any minimal salary savings you might have for the other four spots.  If you look at the mid-point of the next best tier, you're combining for about 90-100 points, which still leaves you 20 points or so behind the Kyle and punt team.

So my plan going into Friday is to use Kyle and a punt (probably Cobb) and look for value and position difference potential.  I do think we have some decent value plays pending their starting spot.  Here's who I'll be focusing on:

• Josh Reaume and Josh Bilicki -- Teammates should start far back in the field.  They will lack speed but could pay off if they can just keep running the whole race and beat the 7-8 trucks that typically retire.
• Jennifer Jo Cobb -- I keep mentioning her.  She's near minimum price and usually comes in with mid-20s in DK points.  Her lowest scoring race is 19 points and she will have virtually no downside since she'll start near the back.
• The entire group in the $6,100-$6,700 range is in play.  Of note there:
  • Cory Roper has shown well at the 1.5 mile tracks this year.  At Atlanta, he started 28th but finished 16th with 40 DK points.  In Texas, he started 29th and finished 12th for 49 DK points.  At Las Vegas, he qualified 5th, but had issues during the race and finished 24th.  Obviously, only use him if he qualifies deep into the 20s.
  • Jordan Anderson has scored between 20-26 DK points in 6 of 7 races this season.  He ran well last week, starting 16th and finished 13th for his season best 34 DK points.
• Johnny Sauter has been excellent at Charlotte the last three years -- all races with Kyle Busch in the field.  He finished 3rd in 2016, 2nd in 2017 and started from pole and won the race last year.  He also led 71 laps and hit 24 fastest laps last year.  I would expect him to come back strong after having a mechanical issue last week.
• I still think Grant Enfinger is under priced at $9,100.  He's been the most consistent driver all season.  He has four Top 5 finishes and would have had another last week but for getting bumped late by Brett Moffitt fighting for position in the Top 3.  He's also scored 45+ DK points in all but one race this season.
• Speaking of Moffitt, I will say he was running a bunch of fastest laps near the end of the race last week and was moving up until he bumped Enfinger trying to get by him.  I don't know if they found something or the track just came to their set up.  Will be keeping an eye on him in practice.  Remember, he is now with the same GMS Racing team that Johnny Sauter had all that success with last year at Charlotte.

One final note.  A scenario where I will pivot away from Kyle is if we have a few good trucks qualify further back in the field.  This doesn't normally happen in the Truck Series, but it's a scenario to be prepared for just in case.

First crucial point.  This is an impound race so tech inspection will be Saturday afternoon.  If a car fails tech once, it's qualifying time is disallowed and it's official starting spot will move to the back of the field.  So you must double check those lineups to make sure you've taken all that into account.  If you want to follow the tech process in near real time, follow Bob Pockrass on Twitter @bobpockrass.  I believe Bob tweeted on Friday that tech is scheduled to begin at about 2:30 Eastern time on Saturday.  So we should know the official starting order within an hour of that.

Subject to everything being turned upside down tomorrow afternoon, here's my current thinking:

• On the top end, I think you roll with Harvick and take the discount off Kyle Busch and Truex.  Harvick will start from pole and had the top long run speed in practice.  It was amazing to see him have almost no fall off from his 10 lap average to his 15 lap and 20 lap average.  Those times were 30.637, 30.649 and 30.683 respectively.  This tells us the 4 car was dialed in and also that tire fall off is minimal.  He's also been very strong at Kansas.  In the last five Kansas races, he's won twice and led over 70 laps three times.
• On the bottom end, I'm locking in David Ragan.  In the last nine races this season, he has finished all of them between 21st-28th.  If he can hit that range again from his 33rd starting spot, he'll give you a solid point day for only $5,500.  On top of that, he's finished in the Top 20 in all of the last four Kansas races.  He's likely to be highly owned and I wouldn't overthink this one.
• With those two in place, I look over the rest of the salaries and see the best value in the $6,100 and under range as well as the $9,100 - $10,200 range.  I don't really like the group in the middle.
• In the $6,100 and under range, my focus is on Matt Tifft ($5,300) and Ryan Preece ($6,100).  Neither of them is likely to pull off a Top 20 run, but if they can just finish the race they're likely to gain a few spots on their starting position and pay off their salary.
• In the $9,100 - $10,200 range, I keep going back to Joey Logano (starting 20th) and Kurt Busch (starting 14th).  Logano has led some laps at every 1.5 mile track this year and has a four race streak of Top 10 finishes.  Kurt has finished in the Top 10 at all the 1.5 mile track races so far this season -- including climbs from the 28th and 30th starting spot.  He had strong speed in final practice, landing 4th in 15 lap average and 5th in 20 lap average -- about .2 seconds per lap behind Harvick.
• Guys like Ryan Newman $7,800, Chris Buescher $7,600 and Matt DiBennedetto $6,800 are certainly in play.  But I think their salaries are creeping too high to justify it.  I don't see any of them doing much better than 20th in a best case scenario.  I think I'd rather go further down the salary chain for the bottom of my roster so I can fill out the other spots in the $9k-$10k range instead of going to the $8K area where I don't see as much value.

I've come to really enjoy the Truck Series races under the lights and they're all the more entertaining with DraftKings running Truck contests this year.  As always, much is dependent on qualifying, but there are some targets that stand out to me for this race:

• At the top, I think we'll see Johnny Sauter and Brett Moffitt fight it out again.  Neither is likely to be a bad choice and both have a good shot at leading laps and running fastest laps.  I used both last week and that worked out because we had some really good value plays.  That strategy might be available this week as well depending on qualifying.
• In the mid-tier, I really like Grant Enfinger and think he's ridiculously under priced at $8,600.  He had the third most fastest laps at Dover right behind Sauter and Moffit.  He already has two Top 5 finishes at 1.5 mile tracks this year and he is with a strong team in ThorSport.  (I like Enfinger much better then a guy like Ross Chastain at $9,100.  Ross has been very solid posting Top 10s in all six races so far.  And that's what he is -- solid.  He's not going to lead laps or hit fastest laps whereas Enfinger has the potential to do that in addition to bringing home a Top 10 finish.)
• The four Kyle Busch Motorsports drivers in the $8,100 - $8,800 range will also be targets and popular choices.  Of the four, I think the safest is probably Harrison Burton.  He has two Top 5 finishes and was up there challenging for the lead at times in Dover.  Todd Gilliland's best finish is 7th and he has only two Top 10 finishes in six races -- which is clear under performance since he's in top notch equipment.  He was doing pretty well at Dover until getting caught up in an accident that was no fault of his towards the end of the race though.  I'm worried about Brandon Jones.  That group seemed pretty far off at Dover.  Would still consider him as an option though depending on practice speed and qualifying.  I'd be OK using the 4th driver Riley Herbst this week if the situation makes sense.  This is his first Truck race this year, but he ran several races last year and did OK.  Don't expect a Top 5, but a Top 10-12 is realistic.
• Austin Hill is $8k.  His performance has been up and down this year -- he won Daytona, but also has 30th place and 27th place finishes.  He's not going to lead laps or hit many fastest laps, so unless he's starting way back, I'm probably out because I like a few guys in the $7k range just as much.
• Sheldon Creed at $7,600 is so tempting.  He always seems to have speed, but he's always getting into trouble too.  At Dover, he lost the truck and finished 27th after leading 59 laps.  The speed means he qualifies well and that makes him a huge risk for cash games since he's starting in the Top 5, but has no Top 5 finishes and four finishes (in only six races) of 17th or worse.  Very strong tournament play because if he does ever finish a race error free, he may very well end up in Victory Lane with a bunch of laps led.
• Tyler Ankrum at $7,100 is very interesting.  He'll be in the lead DGR-Crosley truck (#17) and this has been a good mid-tier team so far this year.  This truck has finished in the Top 20 in all six races with three Top 10 finishes.  Ankrum has been in the truck the last three weeks and finished 6th at Texas and 9th at Dover.    
• Tyler Dippel and Gus Dean are basically the same guy.  They're teammates in like equipment and they should be OK and finish in the 15-20 range.  They are decent options if starting further back, but Tyler Ankrum is likely to be the top and safest choice in this $7k range.
• On the low end, I'm interested in Natalie Decker at $5,900.  She's running in the second truck for DGR-Crosley which I mentioned above.  This truck (#54) hasn't fared as well as the #17 with only three Top 20 runs.  But two of those Top 20 runs are in the last four races with Decker behind the wheel.  At Vegas (another 1.5 mile track), Decker started 12th and finished 13th.  At Dover, she started 20th and finished 17th.  For her salary, any decent finish will do as long as she doesn't qualify too high.
• Jennifer Jo Cobb tends to finish 2-3 spots ahead of where she starts.  It's something and may be playable at her salary of $5,800.  If, for example, Decker starts in the Top 10, you might find that too much of a risk to take and prefer someone like Cobb who certainly will not get you negative points because she's going to qualify very near the tail of the field.
• Avoid Norm Benning and Josh Reaume. They were the first two trucks out at Dover because they failed to maintain minimum speed.

The weather forecast is looking very wet for Sunday, so a delay or postponement seems very likely at this point.  Here's my approach as of now:

• I really like a handful of guys in the $7,500-$9,000 range.  Kyle Larson and Daniel Suarez are my favorites in that group, but Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer and Eric Jones also look like strong choices.
  • Larson was very good in Saturday's lone practice.  He was at the top of the 1, 10, 15 and 20 lap speeds.  He finished 10th and 12th at Dover last year, but in 2017, he finished 2nd and 5th and led 241 laps and 137 laps in those two races.
  • Daniel Suarez has been very solid lately and he has an excellent record at Dover.  In 4 Dover races, he's finished 6th, 8th, 3rd and 10th.  He hasn't led a lot of laps or scored a lot of fastest laps, but he should be in line for a solid Top 10 run with a positive position difference.
• It's been really hard to pass this season in general and the Trucks and Xfinity cars all had trouble passing for the lead.  So I'm likely to role with pole sitter Chase Elliott.  He won here last Fall and has finished in the Top 5 in 5 of his 6 Dover races.  He should be in for a Top 5 finish with a chunk of laps led and fastest laps.
  
• On the high end, I like Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick.
  
  • Harvick completely crushed it here last season.  He won the Spring race, led 201 laps and had 113 fastest laps.  In the Fall, he finished 6th, led 251 laps and had 104 fastest laps.  I'm discounting somewhat the results for last year since the package and racing is so much different this year.  But Harvick also showed really strong long run speed in final practice -- scoring 5th in 20 lap average and 2nd in 30 lap average.  Whenever he's making such long runs in practice, he is feeling good in the car and it's close to what he needs for the race.
    
  • Busch has great position difference upside from his 22nd starting spot.  He's always a threat, but he hasn't been great at Dover -- especially in the Spring.  In the last 3 Spring races, he's finished 30th, 16th and 35th.  He was 4th in 20 lap average in final practice, so he has pretty good long run speed.
  • Truex is also a possible option for me.  He's finished in the Top 4 in 4 of the last 5 Dover races and had some decent chunks of laps led and fastest laps.
• On the salary saver end, my top choices are Matt Tifft and Ryan Preece.  This is really all based on starting spot.  I don't expect either to do much better than 25th, but that result would pay off their lower salary.

Our Truck targets and predicted Dominators did very well Friday evening.  Let's get an XFinity win as well before getting to the Cup Series on Sunday.  As usual with XFin, lots depends on qualifying spot but there won't be time to update between the end of qualifying and lineup lock.  Here's who I'm focused on:

• The top end guys are really hard to differentiate this week.  Reddick is on a roll and has Top 4 finishes in the last 6 races overall.  But he hasn't been great at Dover.  In 3 XFin races, he has a best finish of 5th place and has led a grand total of 23 laps.  His other top end competitors have fared much better at Dover:
  • Bell won last Fall and led 110 laps.  He started 34th and finished 4th in the Spring.  He didn't have great speed in practice Friday finishing 8th and 13th on the speed chart.
  • Allgaier won last Spring and led 104 laps.  He has Top 5 finishes in 5 of the last 6 Dover races.
  • Custer finished 2nd and led 38 laps last Fall.  He has finishes of 4th, 8th, 13th and 2nd in four Dover races.  He was 2nd in first practice on Friday and edged out Reddick for the top spot of the 10 lap average chart in final practice.
  • Can't go wrong with any of them.  As of now, I really like Bell on shorter tracks like this and tend to prefer his $1,100 salary discount to Reddick.  I also like the combination of Custer's salary, speed in practice and past performance here.
• There is a lot of value in the mid-tier.  Noah Gragson and Zane Smith are under priced at $8,300 and $7,600, respectively.  Both race for one of the top teams in JR Motorsports.  Gragson ran here last year in the Spring and started 2nd and finished 7th. 
  
  • This will be Zane Smith's 4th race in the #8 car this season.  He's improved in each of his prior three races from 24th to 11th and then 6th place finishes.  His last two races were at Bristol and Richmond, so he shouldn't be intimidated by Dover if he survived and improved at those two tracks.  He was very fast in practice on Friday finishing 4th and 5th on the one lap speed chart and 3rd in 10 lap average during final practice.  If he doesn't qualify too far forward, I expect him to be very highly owned given his salary and strong team.
    
  • Riley Herbst is also an option at $8,400.  He's in a top end Joe Gibbs car.  He finished 9th in his only other race this year at Richmond.  In his one other XFin race, he finished 6th at Iowa last year.
• On the salary saver end, I'm focused on Ronnie Bassett Jr,, Matt Mills and Baley Currey in the under $5,500 category.  Bassett has two career XFin races -- both in this #90 car this season.  He finished 32nd at Phoenix and 15th at Texas.  Unlike some of the other cars in this salary range, we know the #90 car is part of a decent team and will run the whole race barring an accident or mechanical failure.  Matt Mills in the #5 is also a reliable bet to try to run the entire race.  He recently finished 21st at Bristol with +10 position difference for his best non-super speedway run of the season.  Currey is a bit of a mystery.  I'm still scared of the three race stretch in March when this team didn't finish more than 30 laps in any one of those races.  I'd only use him as a last resort if the starting spot is way back.

The truck series returns Friday after about a month off.  This will be the first race (other than Daytona) without Kyle Busch in the field, so we'll start to see some of the top series drivers rise to the top.  As always, things are very dependent on qualifying spot, but there's only a short time between qualifying and the race.  Here are a few notes to guide your lineup building:

• My best guess is that Johnny Sauter and/or Brett Moffitt will be the Dominator(s).  Sauter won the last two Dover races and led 137 laps last year.  Moffitt has been strong since Daytona -- finishing in the Top 4 in all but one of the last four races.
  
• Matt Crafton and Stewart Friesen are longer shots, but could be worth a look depending on starting spot and/or as contrarian tournament plays.
  
• Brandon Jones, Harrison Burton, Austin Hill, Sheldon Creed and Jess Little all seem fairly priced in the $7,000-$9,000 range.  Hopefully a couple of them do not qualify well and will be a good fit for a cash game lineup.
• In the under $7,000 range, the only guys that I'm actually targeting are Tyler Ankrum and Raphael Lassard.  Ankrum is with a solid mid-tier team in the 17 truck.  He's been in that truck twice this year and finished 19th at Martinsville and 6th at Texas.  The truck overall has finished all 5 races this year in the Top 20 and 2 races in the Top 10.  Lassard is in an extra 4th Kyle Busch Motorsports entry.  He also ran a 4th KBM truck at Martinsville and finished 14th after starting 8th.  It was a solid run and he hit value given his cheap salary despite the -6 position difference.  Reid Wilson is the only other guy I might feel good about.  He's in the #44 truck for another mid-tier team in Niece Motorsports.  This truck has 3 Top 12 finishes with veteran driver Timothy Peters this year, so it's decent equipment.  In Wilson's only other race this season at Martinsville, he started 27th and finished 24th.  All of the others in this range are long short dart throws that should be used (if at all) only if they are starting in the last couple of starting spots.