I was right on with the prediction of a caution and wreck filled race for the Trucks Series. But a lot of my targets got caught up in those wrecks -- mostly being unlucky and in the wrong place at the wrong time. That's short track racing.

The Xfinity Series has not raced at Martinsville in recent years. So we're looking at tracks like Richmond and Phoenix as the closest comparison to this short, flat track. This is another cut-off race to set the Championship 4, so I think we see very aggressive action up front. Chase Briscoe has already advanced so he'll be going for the win at all costs. Cindric, Allgaier and Haley are up in points, but barely so. Jones, Chastain and Gragson are on the outside looking in coming into the race. All these guys should be battling in the Top 10 and I fully expect to see a lot of banging as the race goes on and the pressure turns up.

Target List--

• A.J. Allmendinger -- 100% must play in cash games. Kaulig has been bringing really good cars to the short tracks and A.J. should be able to work into the Top 10 by the end of the day. 
• Myatt Snider -- Another 100% must play for me. He is back in the #21 RCR car this weekend, which is easily a Top 8-10 car. He's mispriced because he's spent most of the season in a third tier (at best) car.  Myatt also has some experience at Martinsville from the Trucks Series where he finished 6th, 3rd and 6th in three races with the ThorSport team in 2018 and 2019. Top 10 and 10+ position difference upside for $7,100.
• Justin Allgaier -- He's probably the best driver in this Series at the short, flat tracks. He was the best car all weekend long at the Richmond doubleheader in early September -- dominating and winning both races.  He also led 51 laps and ran 20 fastest laps at Phoenix earlier this year. 
• Riley Herbst -- He could make some noise starting 24th. Personally, I don't trust him enough to use him in cash games, but a Top 10-12 run isn't out of the question.
• Timmy Hill -- Probably too expensive since his upside is capped at about 25th unless we see a ton of wrecks. What I do like is the 35th starting spot, he's in the #13 so is unlikely to park and he's got some Martinsville experience - including Friday night's Truck Series race where he finished 14th.
• Gray Gaulding -- I've got a lot of respect for Gray Gaulding as a driver and any time I can get him starting 31st in a somewhat decent car, I like it. He's run Martinsville before. I think he's got fringe Top 20 and +10 position difference upside. The #07 motor did blow up last week with David Starr driving but I wouldn't expect to see any carryover since this is probably a different car for the short track.
• Mason Diaz -- He's in the part-time #26 car, which has been decent when it runs. Mason has some limited experience in Xfinity and Trucks and has run Martinsville before. I am worried about him not having any on track time in the Series this year and not having any pre-race practice. But he starts 38th and go really only go up from there.
• Chad Finchum -- He's in the #61 and starts 33rd for only $5,100. A lot to like here. Cheap, not a start and park car and veteran driver.
• The cluster of Stephan Parsons, JJ Yeley and Kyle Weatherman is playable too. All have pretty unreliable cars so you never know. But, if they stay in one piece, they should be able to get you +5-8 position difference with a potential for a bit more if there are a lot of wrecks.

I think this will be a crazy race similar to last Fall's race where we saw 12 cautions and 80 of 200 laps run behind the pace car. In the last four races here, we've seen an average of 8+ caution flags and over 60 laps run under caution. This means lots of restarts and lots of opportunity for lead changes and wrecks. I'm likely to play this more conservative with position difference guys as opposed to playing guys starting right up front. I'm really worried about wrecks and I don't think any one guy dominates huge chunks of this race.

• Parker Klingerman - I think you've got to use him in cash games starting 37th. He's expensive, but I want to be conservative in this one and he's got +25 position difference upside.
• Brett Moffitt - He'd be my top dominator choice if you want to go that route. He's very good at short tracks and is running really well right now. He led 80 laps and ran 50 fastest laps here last Fall. In the three Martinsville races prior to that, he finished 3rd, 2nd and 3rd. And he finished 2nd and 4th at Gateway and Richmond this year. Both of those tracks are short, flat tracks similar to Martinsville.
• Sam Meyer - Has run really well in this truck and is really good at short tracks. Race winning upside starting 22nd.
• Stewart Friesen - Very good at short tracks. 5th and 6th at Martinsville last year and 5th and 10th at Gateway and Richmond this year. 
• Codie Rohrbaugh - Starts 35th for only $4,900. Easy punt play here. He finished a fluky 6th at Richmond earlier this season. He also finished 10th at Martinsville last Fall. 
• Tate Fogleman - Way too cheap for a decent driver and a decent truck starting 27th. He ran 18th and 15th at Gateway and Richmond earlier this year. 
• Carson Hocevar - Top 20 candidate. Ran 15th and 22nd at Gateway and Richmond earlier this year.
• Spencer Davis - This truck has had Top 20 speed when he runs. Might be a little too expensive, but he's an option if you want to remain really conservative.
• Ryan Truex and Trevor Bayne - Both have the upside to get you +10 position difference and have enough experience to make me feel pretty comfortable with them.
• Todd Gilliland - He had the best truck at Gateway earlier this year but got wrecked by Sheldon Creed. He hasn't been running very well as the season winds down though.
• Matt Crafton, Grant Enfinger, Ben Rhodes and Johnny Sauter -- the ThorSport trucks -- all run well at short tracks. I want nothing to do with Sauter or Rhodes. Sauter has been a mess this year and no one is going to play nice with Rhodes after what he pulled last week purposefully turning Christian Eckes into the wall because Eckes dared to race him hard. Crafton and Enfinger could win this thing. But they start too far forward for me to want to use them in cash games. Too risky and better, safer plays around them I think.

Only a few minutes to write up my thoughts--

• I've used a lot of Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin everywhere - but especially the 1.5 mile tracks. I see no reason to change that now. Harvick has won the last three Fall races here. I'd say he's a lock. Hamlin is not lock level, but I still really like him.
• Ryan Blaney has been really fast at 1.5 mile tracks and probably had the best car at Texas earlier this year.
• Jimmie Johnson is tough to fade starting 26th, but he's not cheap and hasn't had a Top 10 at a 1.5 mile track since Atlanta. This is a great floor though for cash games. Just depends how aggressive you want to be.
• Clint Bowyer is a good low floor play, too, but he hasn't finished in the Top 10 at any 1.5 mile track this year. So, like Johnson, think more Top 15 then Top 10.
• In this range, Eric Jones probably has the most Top 8 upside, but is also the most risky.
• Everyone will probably have one or both of Matt Kenseth and Ryan Newman. I have a slight preference for Newman because he's cheaper and probably the more consistent of the two.
• Salary savers - Ty Dillon, Ryan Preece, Corey LaJoie in that order.

(Trucks post is below.)

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE -- MOVING B.J. MCLEOD UP THE "PUNT" LIST. HE'S DRIVING THE #90 DGM CAR, WHICH IS AN UPGRADE OVER HIS NORMAL RIDE WITH JD MOTORSPORTS. THIS SHOULD BE TOP 20 EQUIPMENT AND B.J. IS ONE OF THE MORE DEPENDABLE AND MISTAKE FREE DRIVERS IN THIS SERIES. HE'S MY FAVORITE SALARY SAVER PLAY BY A WIDE MARGIN NOW.

​Little different format to save some time. I'm just going to comment on some guys I think will be of interest for cash games.

• Chase Briscoe - On fire right now. Really hard to go against him, especially starting up front with the best pit box. 
• Austin Cindric - Beast at the 1.5 mile tracks. Should run some fastest laps and might lead for a time. Can see very realistic scenarios where Briscoe and Cindric both make good value.
• Harrison Burton - Probably too expensive to hit value because it's real unlikely he will lead laps. But should definitely move forward.
• Anthony Alfredo - Great play.
• Riley Herbst - Very good play. I like Alfredo better, but have no problem with Herbst if you need the money elsewhere.
• B.J. McLeod and Jess Little - Pretty much the same guy to me. I feel like Little gets a little more support, but don't have anything concrete to point you to.
• Kyle Weatherman - It's a Mike Harmon car, so use extreme caution. But Top 25 upside.
• Colby Howard - He's run a good chunk of the 1.5 mile tracks this year and finished mostly in the 20th-24th range. Good value.
• David Starr - Veteran driver in pretty good equipment. Not entirely safe starting 23rd, but I'd prefer him over a guy like Graf whose starting further back. Realistic projection is 18th-20th. Real good value.
• Iwuji and McLaughlin - Not much upside. But they should be cautious, avoid wrecks and finish the race if the cars don't break. Decent choices if you think they'll be chaos since they'll gain positions if a lot of others crash out.

The Trucks Series will race on Sunday morning before the Cup Series race. Typically we see the Trucks race at night here, so it will throw a little bit of a curveball at the teams to be racing during the day. Here is what I'm thinking.

• I can make a really, really good case for all of the Top 4 guys and I wouldn't be surprised to see them all split the laps led and fastest laps -- which is something we see fairly often in the Trucks Series. 
  • Austin Hill - Overall the best guy at the 1.5 mile tracks. In ten races at 1.5 mile tracks this season, he has two wins and five Top 3 finishes. He's also very safe with only one really bad finish -- the earlier Texas race. That was an engine issue, though, so it's nothing we'd expect to carry over to this race. That said, Austin hasn't had much success at Texas at any time in his career -- with only one Top 5 finish. His salary is an issue too.
  • Zane Smith - He had a top three truck in the earlier Texas race without a doubt. He was so good early on that he passed Kyle Busch on track and Kyle was raving about how good Smith's truck was. Throughout the race, he had bad pit stops that set him back and then he got in the wall in Stage 3 -- which resulted in green flag pit stops that sent him multiple laps down. He had a great truck last week at a 1.5 mile track as well. The speed will be there, but we need him to be mistake free to make it work.
  • Brett Moffitt - Brett had a good truck last week, but I think he really won that race on pit road. He finished Stage 2 in 9th place, but came off pit road in the Top 5. Then he was racing in 2nd behind Zane Smith, but beat Smith in their green flag pit stops in Stage 3 and went to the lead when all the pit stops cycled through. Again, it was a very good truck. But it highlights how the performance of the whole team impacts the real race as well as fantasy results. Brett had a Top 5 truck at Texas earlier this year as well. I don't think he dominates, but he should finish very well.
  • Sheldon Creed - So much upside here. Creed has been really, really fast at the last two 1.5 mile tracks -- scoring a ton of laps led and fastest laps. He finished poorly at Texas earlier this year, but don't read too much into that. He was leading the race early and got a flat tire that killed his day. He went a few laps down pitting under the green flag and could never recover. A very scary fade.
  • Bottom line - Smith and Creed have the most upside, but are more risky. Hill and Moffitt have less dominator potential, but are safer bets to finish in the Top 5. None is a bad play.
• Having said all that, I think Christian Eckes wins this race. He had an awesome truck here in the first race and probably would have won easily had it not been for Kyle Busch. With 15 laps to go in that race, Kyle was leading, Eckes was 3.9 seconds behind him and the third place truck (Brett Moffitt) was over 8 seconds behind Eckes. (Remember Hill, Smith and Creed had issues, so we can't go too crazy about this. But he was right with Kyle Busch and Moffitt had nothing for them.) Eckes is bringing the same truck back for this race and that truck also won both races here last year with Kyle Busch and Greg Biffle driving. I'm taking a stand on this one and locking him in. I'm also already down on his +1100 odds to win the race.
• There are a lot of mid-pack guys to like as well:
  • Stewart Friesen -- Not expecting a Top 5 like the first race, but a Top 10 is realistic.
  • Tanner Gray -- Too cheap. +10 position difference is very realistic and there could be more.
  • Raphael Lassard -- Way too cheap in a Kyle Busch truck starting 20th.
  • Chase Purdy -- Also way too cheap in a top end GMS truck.
  • Dylan Lupton -- Expensive, but certainly can finish in the Top 10-15.
  • James Buescher -- I'm reluctant to use a guy who hasn't raced in a long time when there's no practice and it can be a tricky track. And he's not cheap.
  • Chandler Smith -- Running really, really well right now. Would not shock me to see him win. Way too risky for cash games, but worth a shot in larger tournaments.
• Honestly, I don't see a punt play worth using. Josh Bilicki would be OK if we know he will actually run the whole race. Ray Ciccarelli is probably the best option down here, but I don't even feel comfortable with that. Probably avoiding this area this week.

It was a frustrating Saturday. Wasn't a total bust, but got awful sick of seeing my guys run into in both the Trucks and Xfinity races. Let's hope we can stay clean on Sunday,

I'm going to start with $7k and under targets, which are pretty obvious:

• Matt Kenseth - Pretty consistently in the Top 20 at the 1.5 mile tracks this year. 18th, 17th, 18th in the last three of those this season. Very safe starting 30th.
• Ryan Newman - Pretty similar to Kenseth and should be fighting for a Top 20. Also real safe starting 28th and fairly priced.
• J. H. Nemechek - Can be risky in general, but has done well at the 1.5 mile tracks this year. He's finished almost all of those races right around the 18th-22nd range and has only one really bad finish (36th at Kentucky). Real good floor and upside starting 32nd.
• Corey LaJoie - If you really need to save, this is the cheapest option I'd play. He shouldn't go backwards and might get you a few spots.
• Michael McDowell has also run pretty consistently at these tracks and might gain a few spots.

Mid-Tier

• I don't see many good options here. Can consider Tyler Reddick, Austin Dillon and Aric Almirola, but none are really safe. Reddick and Dillon have several Top 10s or better at the 1.5 mile tracks, but also have some really bad outcomes. Almirola had one of the better cars at these tracks mid-season, but has tailed off quite a bit.

Upper Tier

• Kyle Busch is a really strong play. All the JGR cars were good here the last race and Kyle has a lot of + position difference to offer starting 20th. It's been a frustrating year and Kyle isn't fighting for the championship, so does he lose interest? Or does he just relax and go out and win his first race of the year?
• I'm not convinced on Chase Elliott. Among other things, we have an early competition caution where teams could choose to change only two tires for track position and mess up the running order. And he's got one of the best starters in the series - Joey Logano - right along side to start the race and a lot of good cars in the first few rows. I do think he'll have sizable ownership, though, so there's risk in fading him.
• My top two plays are Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick. There's just not a whole lot more to say about them. Either or both have really strong cars every single week and I wouldn't be surprised to see them both lead on Sunday at some point.
• Ryan Blaney has been fast at the 1.5 mile tracks, but he's just too inconsistent for me to really want to use him in a cash game setting.

It's a real small player pool for me in the Xfinity Series and I think we'll see a lot of lineup overlap in cash games. Let's jump into the names:

• Austin Cindric - By far the best at 1.5 mile tracks this year. In the ten races at those tracks, he has finished in the Top 3 seven times with two wins. He led 131 laps and ran 49 fastest laps at the first Kansas race earlier this year. 
• Harrison Burton - Eight Top 10 finishes in the ten 1.5 mile track races this season with Top 5 potential. Easily projectable to score +10 position difference with some upside beyond that.
• Anthony Alfredo - A Top 10 car starting 25th. Easy cash game play.
• Brett Moffitt (27th)/Austin Hill (29th) - Essentially the same play. Somewhat risky equipment, but solid drivers with Top 15 potential. 
• Jesse Little (30th) - Really cheap for a reliable driver in a decent car. This #15 car profiles as about an 18th-22nd place car. 
• Bailey Currey (32nd) - Always risky using a Mike Harmon car, but this is usually the better of the two. Currey has finished 26th or better in eight consecutive 1.5 mile track races in the #74. 
• David Starr (21st) - The starting position makes it more risky, but the car is better than options like Little and Currey. Starr finished 24th in the #07 at the last Kansas race. He finished 14th in this car at Texas. I can't play anyone cheaper than this.

Let's dive right into Saturday's Truck Series race. We had two races at Kansas earlier this year in a doubleheader weekend. Austin Hill won the first race - leading 65 laps and running 19 fastest laps. Matt Crafton won the second race - leading 23 laps and running 16 fastest laps. Both races show a couple of things I've talked about a lot with the Trucks Series: (1) Austin Hill is the best bet at the 1.5 mile tracks and (2) we tend to see a couple of guys leading laps and splitting fastest laps pretty evenly and usually don't see one guy just drive off and dominate. A lot of point (2) has to do with the fact that the stages are so short, and we see a lot of cautions, so get lead changes with frequent pit stops, restarts, etc. With that said, here's who I am focused on for cash game lineups:

• Parker Klingerman (starting 35th) - A Top 15 finish with +20 position difference and 50+ DK points is a very reasonable projection for Klingerman and there's even some upside from there. While expensive, he's a textbook high floor and good ceiling play. I wouldn't overthink this one.
• Austin Hill (8th) - With this, you're getting the best ride at the 1.5 mile tracks. He's likely to lead at some point, run some fastest laps and finish in the Top 5. The only question mark I can find is if you think we'll see a complete circus with caution after caution - certainly possible. Austin is at his best on longer, green flag runs, so a caution filled race doesn't fit his strengths. The Kansas 1 race had only 4 cautions and that's where Austin led 65 laps and was driving away from the field as the race ended with a longer green flag run.
• Zane Smith (9th) - He's been fast all year long, but he doesn't have great numbers at the 1.5 mile tracks. In nine races at those tracks this year, he's got only two Top 5 finishes and both of those came very soon after the season resumed months ago. But, he's led laps and run a chunk of fastest laps in three of the last four 1.5 mile track races. So he has shown some speed, despite the so-so results. He shouldn't go backwards and there's some upside.
• Christian Eckes (14th) - I really like the + position difference upside here because I think this should be a Top 5 truck. Eckes has finished in the Top 8 in six of the last seven 1.5 mile track races -- including three Top 3 finishes. He has a great crew chief and I'm very confident he'll bring a strong truck since this is his third bite at the apple at this track in 2020.
• Sheldon Creed (4th) - If a truck is going to haul off and truly dominate the race, I'd bet it's Creed. He had a great truck at the last 1.5 mile track (Las Vegas), where he led 89 laps and ran 52 fastest laps. While the upside is tremendous, the downside is too. Creed has finishes of 1st, 2nd and 5th at the 1.5 mile tracks this year, but he also has finishes of 16th, 20th and 26th at those tracks. He's very aggressive -- which works great sometimes but ends poorly just as often. For me, he's better left for tournaments because of the downside. However, flashing back to my comments on Austin Hill, if you do see a caution filled circus coming on Saturday, Creed could be your guy because he's usually good and aggressive on restarts.
• David Gravel (25th) - Should be really highly owned. This is a very strong GMS truck and should run in the Top 15. Gravel is inexperienced, so there is risk here, but this equipment is just too good to be priced down at $6,500 from the 25th starting spot.
• Tyler Hill (28th) - Small team that got some equipment upgrades this year. This is a Top 20 truck and it's finished 18th, 19th, 16th and 17th in the last four 1.5 mile track races. Very solid choice that should be highly owned as well.
• Spencer Boyd (31st) - Slow and steady. If the truck doesn't break down, he should be +5 position difference for real cheap.
• Ray Ciccarelli (36th) - Can't really go wrong at this price and starting spot. Ray finished 24th and 26th in the last two 1.5 mile track races and that's a great return. He is shown in the #83 this week, which is usually the weaker of his entries. Tim Viens is in the #49. So, I think a Top 25 is out, but he might sneak into the Top 30.
• Colin Garrett (20th) - He's another real cheap option, although riskier starting 20th. The truck should allow him to finish about where he starts, but he's done only one truck race (21st last year at Las Vegas), so he's very inexperienced.

A few comments on guys (and a gal) I considered but left off my list:

• Crafton, Enfinger, Rhodes - These three ThorSport teammates have been really consistent at the 1.5 mile tracks this year. In the last five races at 1.5 mile tracks, they've combined for 13 (of 15 possible) Top 10 finishes and 8 Top 5 finishes. My issues with them are that they start really far forward and it's hard to predict any + position difference for them and they tend to not lead a lot of laps or run fastest laps despite finishing well.
• Brett Moffitt - He just hasn't shown consistent speed at the 1.5 mile tracks. He has no wins at these tracks this year, has only three Top 5 finishes (but four finishes of 15th or worse), and the most laps he's led in any race at these tracks is 21. He just has not shown a dominator profile at these tracks this year.
• Hailie Deegan - The equipment should be very good because Ford doesn't want to do anything to make her look bad. But this is her first Truck Series race and she's all but said her sole goal is to simply finish the race and complete as many laps as possible. I really don't see any upside beyond the mid-20s and there's a lot of concern how she'll handle a more crowded track compared to her usual ARCA series where there are maybe 8 competitive cars total. There's also hot pit stops which will be new. Just too many risks and question marks. And she's not all that cheap either.

After seeing what happened on Saturday, I honestly don't know what advice to give you. I'm going to keep it simple and short.

• Play light. The forecast is for rain throughout the day in Charlotte and it's pretty likely this is a wet race either from the get go or at some point during the race. As we saw on Saturday, anything can happen at that point. It's just too random and unpredictable to spend a lot of time analyzing road course history, etc.
• Given the expectation of chaos at some point, I'm approaching this using almost a super speedway type strategy. There are several solid plays from 30th on back that give you very high floors and good upside as well. With the limited laps, finishing position and position difference are the key and it's essential to not have guys in your lineup killing you with negative position difference.
• I think Chase Elliott and Martin Truex are the two best road course racers in the Series and I like using one of them with a bunch of guys starting much further back. 
• Matt DiBennedetto and Chris Buescher stand out as guys to me starting in the 20s that seem like safe bets to move forward and get you 5+ position difference.

I think it's a pretty small player pool this week. With the road course, it's essential to find guys who are going to move up from their starting spots. With reduced laps, scores are much lower then a normal week so every single point matters. Here are the guys I'm considering for my cash game lineup:

• Austin Cindric - Best road course racer in the series. He won two of the three road course races this year already. He probably would have won the third road course race if he didn't get a questionable penalty for jumping a restart in the middle of the race. Likely winner and Top 3 lock.
• A.J. Allmendinger - Another virtual lock. He's also had some bad luck in the road course races, but still has finished 4th, 2nd and 4th. Has the upside to win and is a Top 5 lock.
• Kaz Grala - In the very fast and reliable #21 car and he's finished 4th and 5th in his last two road course races. I doubt he can win, but another Top 5 is a reasonable expectation.
• Preston Pardus - Road course specialist in pretty good equipment. I really am leaning to the road course specialists this weekend -- especially if we see a wet track because they're most likely to have real world seat time in wet conditions. Pardus has finished 10th, 8th and 31st in the three road course races this year. He was running about 15th in that last race before he got wrecked during a late race restart where the whole field got bottled up because the two Mike Harmon cars restarted on the front row.
• Jade Buford - In a similar position to Pardus, but without a dud finish so far this year. Buford has run all three road course races and finished 14th, 19th and 16th.
  
• Josh Bilicki - Josh is an accomplished road course racer and actually teaches road course driving. He's a great play if you can afford the salary. He's finished 23rd, 17th and 12th in the three road course races this year. This team is not the most reliable, but the #78 Josh is in this weekend is usually OK. 
  • The one issue with Pardus, Buford and Bilicki is that they're going to race aggressively and fight for positions. The guys below on this list are likely to be more conservative, so probably have less chance of wrecking even though they're not as good drivers on the road courses.
• Jess Little - Salary and position difference play. He doesn't have a lot of road course experience, but finished 18th, 28th and 18th in the three road course races earlier this season. Figure something in the 22nd-25th range.
• Stephen Leicht - Minimum salary and finished 21st, 22nd and 21st in the three road course races this year. The pricing is so low because Leicht normally parks in the #66 car. He's in the #13 car this weekend and I fully expect him to try to complete this race. If he does, he should be able to pick up 4-5 spots.
• Kyle Weatherman - He's finished 15th, 21st and 17th in the three road course races this year. If he comes anywhere near the Top 20, he'll pay off big since he's starting 35th. As always, this is a Mike Harmon car, so the risk of a failure is higher than almost any other team.
• Gray Gaulding - He's in the other Mike Harmon car and will start 33rd. He's a pretty talented driver and should be able to finish around 20th if the car stays in one piece. As with Weatherman, there is a failure risk.
• I like Myatt Snider and Alex Labbe, but they probably start too far forward to use in cash games. Both have Top 10 potential and are solid tournament options.
• I'm not taking the cheese on Austin Hill. I believe this is his first Xfinity Series road course race. And the Truck Series doesn't race at the Roval, so it will be his first race on this road course. His Trucks Series results on the road courses are OK, but he wasn't dominating those races either. This could burn me but I prefer other plays noted above in the same salary range.