I'll watch Eldora and might play some small dollar DK entries, but I'm not going to do a write up.  I don't know enough about the many one off guys coming in to do this race and want to focus on the Cup and Xfinity races at WGI this weekend.

UPDATE: So glad I didn't waste time on a write up since cash game plays were pretty obvious once all those cars got sent to the rear.

Sorry all.  Unable to do a Cup Series write up this week.

Saturday Morning Update In Bold At The Bottom

The Xfinity Series has a stand alone race in Iowa on Saturday.  This series was here just a few weeks ago in mid-June.  In that race, Christopher Bell dominated most of the race with 186 of 250 total laps led and 116 fastest laps.  The only car anywhere near him was Cole Custer, who led 59 laps and ran 50 fastest laps.  However, Custer only led if/when he had the preferred outside line on a restart.  This happened at the beginning of the race and again part way through the race when he beat Bell off pit road.  Each time Bell methodically worked his way up to and past Custer and then drove away from him.  Bell had the best car by a pretty sizable margin.

This was the second consecutive win at Iowa for Bell as he won the July 2018 race there as well.  It was also the second consecutive Iowa race where Bell and Custer were the dominators.  In that July 2018 race, Bell led 94 laps and had 50 fastest laps.  Custer had 104 laps led and 49 fastest laps.

Heading into the weekend, I expect much of the same with Bell and Custer leading the way.  The safest bet is probably to plan on rostering both of them, grabbing two salary savers and then filling it out with a couple of mid-pack guys who offer some position difference upside.  The only scenario I can see changing this approach would be if one or more good cars qualifies near the back and offers elite +25-30 position difference upside.

Here's a few other drivers of note heading into the weekend.  I'll add some additional driver notes/targets after we see practice on Friday:

• Tyler Reddick -- In five Iowa Xfinity races, he has only two Top 10 finishes and no laps led.  In the June race this year, he had a bad tire (apparently a Goodyear defect) and went multiple laps down having to address the problem.  Even before that, however, he was nowhere near Bell or Custer.  In the first stint, for example, Reddick started 5th, but was back to 10th position nearly 10 seconds behind the leaders after 30 laps.  
• Justin Allgaier -- He has a very strong history here.  In the June race, he started 14th but finished 3rd.  However, he didn't lead any laps and had only 2 fastest laps.  In 2018, he won the June race, while leading 182 laps and running 53 fastest laps.  In July 2018, he finished 2nd, but with only 6 laps led and 8 fastest laps.  He will likely deliver a very strong finishing position, but will also likely fail to deliver the needed laps led and fastest laps to justify his salary.
• Four other cars stood out in the June race and are ones I'll be watching closely:
  • Noah Gragson -- He had a very fast car and was in 3rd place about 5 seconds behind Custer and Bell 30 laps into the June race.  Soon after that, he had a loose wheel and fell multiple laps down fixing that.  He eventually got back on the lead lap following a series of late cautions and finished 6th.  He'll probably start too high to give him upside.
  • Zane Smith -- Will be in the #8 for JR Motorsports just like he was for the June race.  He finished 5th in that race and was running in the Top 5 a good chunk of the day.  Like Gragson, he will probably start too high to give him much upside.
  • Harrison Burton/Riley Herbst -- Burton was in the #18 Joe Gibbs car in June and ran very well.  He started 10th, finished 4th and ran in the Top 5-6 most of the day.  Herbst will be in this car for this race.  $8,100 is a great price to get for one of the top cars in the field.  But Herbst really hasn't done much with this ride.  In six races this year, he has only one Top 10 finish -- a 9th at Richmond after starting on the pole.  You'd expect to see much more.
  • Jeremy Clements -- He started 13th and finished 12th in the June race.  That doesn't sound so great, but he was the only car not with a fully funded team that stayed on the lead lap all race long.  Gray Gaulding also finished on the lead lap -- but only after getting 2 laps back as the Lucky Dog on back-to-back cautions late in the race.  Clements was the only guy from a smaller team who was legitimately on the lead lap all race.  (Also of note, Clements has finished in the Top 15 in the last six races this season and Top 18 in the last nine races this season.  He's about as consistent as they come right now -- although he typically qualifies well enough to blunt any position difference upside he might otherwise have.)

More to come after Friday's practices.

Saturday Morning Update:

• Continue to be all in on C Bell as the lead dog.  Top single lap speed in Practice 1 and top 10 lap speed in Final Practice.
• Custer a bit off.  Still think he's the next best, but Reddick creeping closer.  Extremely unlikely anyone else would win the race or dominate laps led/fastest laps points.
  
• Like the price and speed combo in the $8K-$9K range -- especially Sieg, Z. Smith and Gragson.  Herbst and B Jones much more risky.
  
• Dillon Bassett, Ryan Vargas, Matt Mills and Vinnie Miller safest options at the low end.
  

  

Saturday Morning Updates In Bold At The Bottom

The Trucks Series hits Pocono on Saturday afternoon.  There are three unusual things about this race relevant to our Fantasy Nascar strategy:

• First, the entire race is only 60 laps and we've already got two built in cautions at the end of Stage 1 and Stage 2.  So, we're looking at a maximum of about 52-54 green flag laps.  This takes the total points available for laps led and fastest laps down to around 40-45.  That's not to say these points are irrelevant.  In fact, every point is going to be extra valuable this week where lower scores will be the norm.  But it does reduce somewhat the emphasis on Dominator points and put added focus on building position difference upside into every spot in your lineup.
• Second, a related point is that Pocono is such a long track that it allows for road course like pit strategy because you can pit under green without losing a lap.  You can run about 40 laps on fuel here, so it's really a one stop race.  Many teams near the front will choose to pit under the green flag in the middle of Stage 2 as soon as their window opens to run the rest of the race without refueling.  Others -- wanting to score "stage points" at the end of Stage 2 -- will stay out until the end of Stage 2 and then pit under caution before Stage 3.  But, when they do pit, all the trucks that previously pitted under green will pass them and restart Stage 3 in front of them.  So, whoever leads laps at the end of Stage 2 and wins Stage 2 will likely give up that lead before Stage 3 begins.  The multiple strategies available tend to jumble up the field and the leaders, which means you're very unlikely to see one truck leading all or most of the laps.  So, the reduced number of Dominator points should be split up among several trucks even more than usual.  This also reduces the importance of Dominator points and adds focus to the position difference upside.
• Third, two practice sessions and qualifying will all take place Friday with the race on Saturday.  I think this is the first Truck race where we will have the qualifying order a day before the race.  This may cause contests to fill more quickly and will give people more time to work their lineups.  I'm not sure how that will all play out, but it's something to keep in mind.

I'm going to post a few driver notes for now, but leave most of that for the Friday night update I'll do after practice and qualifying:

• Kyle Busch has won two of the last four Pocono truck races.  And his race team (with Christopher Bell and William Byron driving) has won the other two of the last four Pocono races.  So it's been a KBM winner four years in a row.
  • It's very likely the #51 KBM truck is going to be highly owned on Saturday.  This is generally the best truck and best crew chief in the garage.  Christian Eckes is in the truck for the third time this season.  He finished 22nd at Daytona, which is irrelevant.  More recently, at Gateway, he started from pole, led 57 laps and was heading for a Top 5 or so finish when he got spun by the #52.  At $8,300, none of that should scare you away from rostering the #51 truck on Saturday.
  • The other two KBM trucks for Gilliland and Burton are also squarely in play if they offer position difference upside.  These guys have not led laps or run fastest laps this season, but they are very likely Top 8 trucks for the race.  
• Mason Massey, Bryant Barnhill and Josh Reaume are all safe salary saver choices.  They all race for Reaume Brothers.  We've seen all season long that these trucks are slow and aren't even really trying to race anyone.  Their sole goal is to finish the race without damage and beat the trucks that park or get knocked out of the race.  They are slow so they start in the back and tend to make up some spots into the low 20s finishing positions by race end.  Since they start in the back, there's no risk of negative points and they usually provide modest positive position difference for a really cheap price.
• Anthony Alfredo and Grant Enfinger stick out as two guys who are under priced for their expected performance heading into the weekend.  Grant's run into some tough luck the last two races, but he's still been leading laps and running fastest laps.  

​That's it for now.  I'll add some additional driver targets note after practice and qualifying on Friday.

Saturday Morning Update --

• Continue to think Enfinger and Alfredo are under priced.  Like them both.
• Eckes locked and loaded since starting 13th.  Definitely a Top 10 truck with Top 5 upside.
  
• Really tough to pick a dominator.  Hill, Moffitt, Friesen, Chastain all strong options.  But will they split laps led, fastest laps, etc to minimize the impact?  I'm still leaning towards a focus on position difference upside.  Strong options there, too, with Enfinger, Sauter and Rhodes.
• Cobb, Dauzat, Reaume, Barnhill, Massey safest of those starting towards the back.

I want to start this week's strategy with some trends.  The "package" this week is relatively similar to what's been run in years past at the shorter tracks, so past history here could be more important.  What we've seen at New Hampshire is that our dominators start up front -- usually in the Top 5.  In fact, in the last three New Hampshire races, the pole winner has both led the most laps in each race and had the most fastest laps in each race.  Let's look at a few details:

• 2018 -- The front row starters led almost 200 of 301 laps.  The pole winner had a race high 94 laps led and race high 54 fastest laps for 50.5 DK points.
• Fall 2017 -- The pole winner and 5th place starter lead all the laps.  The pole winner led 187 laps and had 89 fastest laps for 91.25 DK points.
• Summer 2017 -- The pole winner, 7th place starter and 8th place starter lead almost all the laps.  The pole winner led 137 laps and had 76 fastest laps for 72.75 DK points.
• So we're not seeing dominators come from very far back in the field.  That puts a lot of emphasis on the powerful front row we have this weekend with Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch.  It's easy to envision either or both of them dominating chunks of the race.  Kyle was the guy who led 187 laps here in Fall 2017, so he's done it here very recently.  BK hasn't been one of the recent dominators here, but he also has not started in the Top 5 here -- much less from pole in recent years.  Also, he did dominate Martinsville earlier this year -- and that might be the most comparable track to New Hampshire.  Both profile very well for Sunday.

Looking at the shorter, flatter tracks run so far this year, the same type of trend holds up.  The dominators have come from the very front of the field -- usually the Top 5 starters.

• Phoenix -- 4th (Kyle Busch) and 1st (Ryan Blaney) place starters lead almost every lap and score almost every fastest lap.
• Martinsville -- 3rd (Brad Keselowski) and 7th (Chase Elliott) place starters dominate.  This was mostly BK, who led 446 laps.  But Chase did outscore him 82-79 on fastest laps.
• Richmond -- 4th (Kyle Busch) and 5th (Martin Truex) dominate.  They both lead over 100 laps and hit 55 and 34 fastest laps, respectively. 

So where does all this leave us for driver targets.  First, with 301 laps out there, I think we need to shoot for two dominators:

• I'm all in for Kyle Busch being one of them.  When he has started up front this year, he's been awesome.  He has six starts inside the Top 5 and he's averaged 97 DK points in those six races.  More to the point, he has two Top 5 starts at shorter tracks this year and scored 145 and 85 DK points in those two races.
• I have to go Keselowski with the other one.  The pole sitter at New Hampshire has done so well recently.  And I do see Martinsville as the closest comparable track to New Hampshire and Brad led almost all of the 500 laps there earlier this year.
• I do like Truex, but not as much as the top two.  I didn't have time to fully research this, but I just feel like he's not his best on hot, slick tracks like we'll see Sunday.  It seems like he most often dominates night races or races where the race conditions are a lot different then practice conditions.
• A lot of people might be in on Ryan Blaney because he's cheaper and he put up the best times by far in final practice.  But watching it, it looked like he had a lot of open track in front of him and didn't have any traffic during the super fast run.  I don't know if that speed will translate to the race on Sunday.  And I just think he's much less reliable then the 18 or 2.  That said, the salary savings you do get there versus the 18 or 2 can really help the rest of your lineup.

Who else to target:

• I think you've got to get Bowman in cash games.  Even if you go conservative and predict an 18th-20th place finish, it's still 40+ points.  And with no downside from the 37th starting spot.
• On the cheap end, I like Ryan Preece and Bubba Wallace.
  • Preece considers this his home track and races there probably more often then anyone else in the field.  And he's finished in the Top 3 at New Hampshire in the last two Xfinity races.  He's also finished in the Top 20 at the last two short track races this year -- Martinsville and Richmond.
  • Bubba has been pretty solid lately.  I've said I view Martinsville as the closest comp track and he started 26th and finished 17th there earlier this year.  And, honestly, other than maybe LaJoie I don't have any confidence whatsoever in the guys under him in salary on DK.  You could do LaJoie in a pinch if you need to save the $200 off Bubba's salary, but don't go below that.
  • A few others I like are Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer, Austin Dillon and Paul Menard.
    • Newman will start at the rear, but with an official starting spot of 26th, that's not a big deal.  The last 7-8 cars in the field are awfully weak, so he should easily be up to there (if not better) in Stage One.  He's been solid at New Hampshire and already has a 12th and 9th place finish at the short tracks this year.  Will pay off with something like a 15th-18th place finish.
    • I like Bowyer at shorter tracks.  At the three short tracks this year, he's finished 11th, 7th and 3rd and scored 56, 54 and 63 DK points.  Starting 16th and with a salary of $8,400, all he needs is a Top 10 to pay off.  Interesting pivot off highly owned Bowman in tournaments.  Also a good option if you use Blaney and have some extra salary for the rest of your roster.
    • Austin Dillon has four Top 20s in the last five New Hampshire races and has been no worse then 21st.  At the last two short tracks this year, he's finished 11th and 6th for 63 and 44 DK points, respectively.  He was 8th in 5-lap average, 13th in 10-lap average and 11th in 15-lap average in final practice.  I wish he weren't starting quite as high as 21st, but still offers some decent upside to about a 15th place finish at a pretty cheap salary.
    • Menard hasn't been super fast, but has been super consistent this year.  It's hard to believe, but he hasn't finished worse then 24th since the season opener at Daytona.  And his short track finishes so far this year are 17th, 15th and 10th.  He and Austin Dillon both offer some solid sub-$7k options.

​

Saturday Morning Updates in Bold/Underline

I talked last week in the Xfinity article about how the repaved Kentucky is a single groove track making it very difficult to pass.  And I went through the numbers showing how the Top 10-15 starters tended to end up in the Top 10-15 finishing positions.  That turned out to be true again last week.  Of the Top 15 starters, 13 of them also finished in the Top 15.  The only two newcomers to the Top 15 started the race just outside the Top 15 at 16th and 18th.  And, the only two Top 15 starters who did not also finish in the Top 15 were not passed on track.  They both suffered fatal engine/mechanical issues (Ray Black Jr and Brandon Jones).

This week again, the Xfinity Series will be at what is historically a single groove track where it's very difficult to pass.  For at least the last five years, the cars that qualify up front here completely dominate the race.  In the last five races, every car that has started 1st, 2nd or 3rd has finished in the Top 5.  And in two of the last five races, the cars starting 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th finished the race in the exact same order -- 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th.  That's pretty remarkable.  So, again this week, we'll put a little less emphasis on position difference and more focus on the cars starting up front and mid-tier cars starting around 18th-24th that we think can gain a few spots and score a solid points day.  (Two caveats to all this -- (1) This race has tended to have a few Cup Series guys like Kyle Busch or Brad Keselowski who we would expect to dominate the race no matter what.  Only Paul Menard is of note crossing over from the Cup Series this week.  (2) Last year, Keselowski won the pole but had to start from the rear.  He easily worked through the field and led 72 laps.  So it's not impossible for a great driver in a great car to pass.  But for a normal Xfinity ride, it's extremely tough.)

I'll again be looking to roster Christopher Bell and Cole Custer.  Both have been very good this year at the shorter, flatter tracks that are most comparable to New Hampshire.  I'm looking at Bell as my #1 Dominator with Custer #2.

• For Bell, despite Kyle Busch being in the race, he led 68 laps at Phoenix earlier this year and had 32 fastest laps.  At Richmond, he had another 32 laps led and 54 fastest laps.  Those are the closest two tracks that have been run this year.
• Bell won the New Hampshire Xfinity race last year -- beating Brad Keselowski.  He started 2nd, led 93 laps and ran 25 fastest laps.  He also won both stages and the race in his last Truck race here in 2017.
• My only concern with Bell is pit stop performance.  He had two bad stops last week that cost him numerous positions both times.  With Custer performing well, Bell can't have that because -- as we saw last week -- he's not going to be able to re-pass Custer on track at these single groove tracks.
• Bell's speed in practice Friday affirms he is Dominator #1.  In first practice, he was about .2 seconds per lap faster in both single lap time and consecutive 5-lap average.  In second practice, Custer cut into that just a bit.  Bell was just over .1 second faster in single lap time and just under .1 second faster in consecutive 5-lap average.  (Justin Haley ran the fastest single lap in final practice, but I'm pretty sure he was in a qualifying set-up for that lap.)
  
• At Richmond, Custer led 122 laps, had 55 fastest laps and scored 107 DK points.  At Phoenix, he ran 4th and didn't have too many laps led or fastest laps (Kyle Busch dominated), but still scored 48 DK points.
• Custer has run two New Hampshire races in the Xfinity Series and finished 9th both times.  He hasn't led any laps and has only two fastest laps in those two races.  This team is at a whole different level this year, though, so I'm not too worried about the history here.  And Custer didn't have a good history at Richmond either, but still dominated that race earlier this season.
• Custer was the second best car in practice Friday.  In first practice, he was second in single lap average, second in 5-lap average and first in 10-lap average -- Bell did not run 10 consecutive laps so didn't appear on the 10-lap chart.  In second practice, Custer was second in single lap average and 5-lap average.  He did not run 10 consecutive laps.
  
• We also have to look at Tyler Reddick.  He's had solid finishes at both shorter, flatter races (3rd at Phoenix and 4th at Richmond), but barely any laps led or fastest laps.  Combined between the two races, he didn't lead a single lap and had only 19 fastest laps combined.  He's clearly been a bit behind on speed and performance on the two most similar tracks this season.
• Last year at New Hampshire, Reddick finished 4 laps down in 25th position.
• Reddick was quite a bit off the Bell/Custer pace in practice.  He was about .3 second per lap behind in single lap and 5-lap time in the final practice.
  
• Justin Allgaier looked pretty good in practice.  He was 3rd in first practice for single lap time and 1st in final practice for 10-lap average.  He was not in the same league as Bell or Custer, but looks set to have a real solid Top 5 or so run.
  

Wanting to grab two Dominator options, you're going to need multiple value plays.  Here's the options I'm focusing on as of now:

• Brandon Jones, Ryan Truex and Noah Gragson are all under priced.  All of these guys looked OK in practice.  Their not going to lead laps, but should finish in the Top 10.
  • Truex is in the top tier #8 car again this week.  He finished 2nd in that car earlier this year at Phoenix.
  • If you take out Daytona, Gragson is on a streak of six straight races where he's finished 7th or better.
  • Jones is probably too risky for a cash game because he is prone to DNFs, but at $8,200 it's just getting too cheap for an experienced driver in a Joe Gibbs car.
  • None of these guys should be priced under Justin Haley or Harrison Burton.
• On the low end, I continue to use guys like B.J. McLeod and Matt Mills because their main goal in the race is to complete as many laps as possible -- which is exactly what we want in a cash game.  Still like McLeod and also Stephen Leicht as guys who will run the whole race.  They are in the top two JD Motorsports cars this week.
  • I normally jump on Alex Labbe, but the #90 car performance is really concerning lately.  I also think this car has no outside sponsorship this weekend, which could limit the race/tire budget.  Ran 16 practice laps and has a pit crew, so should be good to go.
  • Landon Cassill is another guy I normally like.  But he's an avoid in all formats this week because he'll be in the Morgan Shepherd start and park.  This is not the JD Motorsports ride he's been doing the last several races.
  • There's some other guys under $6K that I'd have interest in depending on practice laps run and starting spot.  Chad Finchum, Dillon Bassett and Tommy Joe Martins are the most interesting to start the weekend.
  • Really like Jeremy Clements at $6,900.  In final practice, he was 12th in single lap time and 9th in 5-lap average.  After a rough start to the year, he's finished between 10th-16th and scored at least 30 DK points in the last seven races.
    

2 for 2 so far at Kentucky.  Good profit in Trucks and a huge day in Xfinity.  If you read my Xfinity article, you should have killed it Friday night.  I used Custer - Bell - Truex - Shane Lee - BJ McLeod - Vinnie Miller.  All but Miller were featured prominently in my write up.

I'm not going to write much about the Cup race for a couple reasons.  (1) I put a ton of time into Trucks and Xfinity this week and it paid off.  I didn't do as much work on the Cup stuff so I feel less prepared.  (2) It's an impound race.  There was no pre-qualifying tech inspection, so tech will be done Saturday afternoon.  Any car that fails once will have its q time disallowed and its official starting spot will move to the back of the field.  We have typically had at least a few cars fail which makes them obvious chalk plays in cash games.  Since a chunk of the field can get turned upside down on Saturday shortly before the race, it doesn't make much sense to focus too much on the specific lineup just yet.

There are two guys I've got pretty strong opinions about, so I will talk about them:

• Martin Truex -- Hasn't looked great in practice, but I'm still likely to load up on Saturday.  The track had a new layer of pavement added before the 2017 season.  In the two races since then, Truex has completely crushed the competition.  In 2017, he won both stages and the race, led a race high 152 laps and had a race high 84 fastest laps.  In 2018, he again won both stages and the race.  This time he led a race high 174 laps and had a race high 65 fastest laps.  It really doesn't get any better than that.
  • Also, keep in mind the Truex-Cole Pearn combo is very strong going from daytime practice to a nighttime race.  Truex has won two of the three (excluding Daytona) nighttime races this year  -- at Richmond and Charlotte.
    
• Chris Buescher -- He's getting priced up a bit, but I still really like him at these 1.5 mile tracks.  In six races at them this year, he's finished no worse than 20th.  And he has three Top 10 finishes in those six races -- including a 10th place finish at Kansas and a 6th place finish at Charlotte.  I highlight those races not just because of the great finishes but also because they were the only other two 1.5 mile track races where practice ran during the day but the race was at night.  Starting from 26th (but check again after tech), there's little downside and plenty of upside.
  

I will try to add something after tech inspection on Saturday, but I'm not sure I'll have time to do so.  In any event, follow Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass)  on Twitter as he is typically at the track tweeting real time updates on tech as cars either pass or fail.

We had two Xfinity practice sessions on Thursday.  Qualifying will be Friday afternoon before the evening race, so be sure to check official starting spots. 

One general note, since the repave, it's been very difficult to pass at Kentucky.  In the last two Xfinity races, most drivers are finishing about where they started.  Some specifics:

• In 2018, of the Top 12 finishers, 11 of them also started in the Top 12.  The one newcomer to finish in the Top 12 started 14th, so didn't have very far to go.  Similarly, of the Top 20 finishers, 18 of them also started in the Top 20.  The only outsiders to finish in the Top 20 had started 21st and 24th.  (Note, however, that race winner Christopher Bell started from the rear.  He was able to come through the field to 5th by mid-race and take the lead in the final stage.)
• In the second 2017 race, we saw almost identical numbers.  Of the Top 12 finishers, 11 of them also started in the Top 12.  Once again, the only newcomer to finish in the Top 12 had started just outside the Top 12 in 13th position.  And, this time, of the Top 20 finishers, 19 of them also started in the Top 20.  The lone outsider to finish in the Top 20 had started way back in 22nd!  These are pretty remarkable numbers.

With that background, here's who I'm looking at most heading into Friday:

​Top End 

• How can you not like Christopher Bell and Cole Custer.  They are my top two dominator candidates and you might be able to take them both on Friday night.  In fact, you might need to take them both given the lack of position difference upside we are seeing recently at Kentucky as documented above.
  • Bell was fastest in first practice and second fastest in final practice.  He was also second on the 10 lap average chart -- just behind Custer -- in final practice.  He's been the dominator at two of the five races on 1.5 mile tracks this year -- Atlanta (142 laps led) and Texas (127 laps led).  He won this race last year (over Kyle Busch who led 111 laps) in his only prior Xfinity race at this track.   He also won here in his last season in the Trucks series.  So he's won here the last two times he's raced here.
  • Custer crushed the field at the last 1.5 mile track -- 151 laps led and 85 fastest laps at Chicago.  He had the best 10 lap time in first practice and the best single lap time and 10 lap time in final practice.  Getting two long runs in during practice gives him a great leg up on the field and shows he was very comfortable with what the car was doing.  At Kentucky, he has Top 5 finishes with a decent chunk of laps led and fastest laps in the last two races.
  • I'm not going to count out the third member of the Big Three Tyler Reddick.  But he was just a bit behind Bell and Custer in practice Thursday and he hasn't turned in a real strong performance since his dominating win back on Memorial Day weekend in Charlotte.

Bargains

• Not a true bargain, but Ryan Truex might be a bit under priced at $8,700.  He's in the top notch #8 JR Motorsports car that seems to finish in the Top 10 no matter who is driving.  I think Truex offers the same package as the guys priced just above him -- such as Brandon Jones and Justin Haley.  And he's much stronger than the guys priced just below him -- like Brandon Brown and Garrett Smithley.  (No disrespect to what his underfunded team does, but Smithley at $8,400 is ridiculous and grossly over priced.)
• On the true lower end, I'm most interested in Ronnie Bassett Jr and the JD Motorsports trio of B.J. McLeod, Landon Cassill and Stephen Leicht.
  • Bassett has done five races this year in a secondary DGM car and generally scored about 18-20 DK points each time.  I find him a bit more reliable then the MBM group -- Finchum, Hill, Gase -- who are priced around him.  The MGM guys have been all over the map and subject to reliability issues throughout the season.  I think Finchum offers the best upside of the group, but he's also been very up and down and unreliable.  To his credit, he's been at 20+ DK points the last four races.  But, showing that unreliability, he had terrible finishes and scored 6 and -4 DK points the two races before that.
  • McLeod and Leicht have been among the most reliable salary savers throughout the year.  Leicht has been the best at the 1.5 mile tracks this year -- scoring at least 20 DK points in all five races.  And he's been at 30 or more DK points over the last three 1.5 mile track races.  Cassill appears to be replacing Ross Chastain in the JD cars.  He's gotten off to a bit of a rocky start, but does have a solid history of getting what his car should get in both Xfinity and Cup.

Others

• Shane Lee, Reily Herbst and Ryan Sieg will be others guys I'll strongly consider if the starting spot is right.

See Post-Practice/Post-Qualifying Updates in Bold.

The racing starts early this week with a Thursday night Truck Series race.  All practice and qualifying will be pre-race on Thursday, so please check those results before locking your lineup.  Here are my lineup thoughts and driver targets heading into Thursday:

Low-Priced Locks

• I see two guys pretty badly under priced -- Josh Bilicki and Dylan Lupton
  • Bilicki is in the #34 truck for Reaume Brothers.  This truck has been finishing right around 20th at the 1.5 mile tracks this season.  In the last four such races, this truck has finished 17th, 18th, 16th and 22nd.  Bilicki has been in Reaume Bros. equipment twice at the 1.5 mile tracks this season.  He finished 18th and 19th with 33 DK points both times.  This truck won't be fast, but it pretty reliably runs the full race and will finish ahead of the start and parks and retired trucks.  It is easily the most reliable truck and best value in the sub-$6,500 range.
  • Also good with Bilicki's teammate Mason Massey at $5,300.  Likely to finish 20th-24th place.
    
  • Lupton is in the #15 DGR-Crosley truck.  Anthony Alfredo has run this truck at the last three 1.5 mile tracks and shown very solid speed and reliability.  He's come home 8th, 12th and 9th in those three races with a range of 34-43 DK points.  Lupton ran a third DGR-Crosley truck (#5) two weeks ago at Chicago.  He started 9th, ran in the Top 10-12 all race and finished 10th for 33 DK points.  DGR as a company was very fast at Chicago.  They probably would have had all three trucks finish in the Top 10 if not for a late pit road speeding penalty by Tyler Ankrum in the #17.  Lupton is easily a better bet than Jennifer Jo Cobb and Natalie Decker who are priced right around him.

High End Targets

• Brandon Jones --  Jones will be in the #51 Kyle Busch Motorsports truck again this week.  This truck has finished 1st or 2nd in six of the seven races at 1.5 mile tracks this year.  It finished 5th the only time it was outside the Top 2.  Even if you take out the 4 wins by Kyle himself, Greg Biffle also drove this truck to Victory Lane in Texas.  Jones ran it 2nd in the last race at Chicago and 5th in his first race earlier this year at Kansas.  Even in the three non-Kyle races, this truck has scored 57, 58 and 75 DK points -- easily the best average score in those three races.  At $9,400, it's $1K-$2K cheaper than other potential front runners like Ross Chastain, Brett Moffitt and Grant Enfinger.  Must have in cash games starting 27th.
• Harrison Burton -- Burton is coming off two Top 5 finishes at 1.5 mile tracks.  He ran virtually the entire race inside the Top 5 last time out at Chicago.  Had the best 10 lap average in final practice.
• Austin Hill -- He's been very strong at the 1.5 mile tracks.  He's finished in the Top 8 at the last four 1.5 mile track races and scored at least 41 DK points in all those races.  Real strong cash game play starting 22nd.
• Stewart Friesen -- Is over 55 DK points with a Top 5 finish at four of the 1.5 mile track races this season.  He finished 2nd at Kentucky last year with 37 laps led and 21 fastest laps.  Likely out of cash game mix now.  Primary truck was confiscated by NASCAR.  He will be in a back up and drop to the rear for the start of the race.  He could get back in the picture if his official starting spot is deep in the field.  [Never mind the last update.  Now a near lock starting 32nd.]
• Crafton and Enfinger -- I still like both these guys as real consistent performers.  Crafton in particular has finished no worse than 8th in the last four Kentucky races and also has Top 8 finishes in the last six 1.5 mile track races this year.  Enfinger probably offers more laps led/fastest laps upside with just a tad more risk compared to Crafton.  Like Enfinger to be the lead Dominator, but with only 150 laps, will he get enough to make it worth taking him over one of the big position difference guys?  Real tough/close call.  I think he does get enough to make it worth while, but certainly a more risky play.
• Ross Chastain -- Here's my thought on Ross.  I love what he's done this year and what this team is doing.  But I don't expect them to be out front-running and dominating races.  They need solid Top 5-10 finishes every week to ensure they get into the Top 20 in points to be eligible for the playoffs.  They can't take any chances or do anything aggressive that might lead to another disqualification or poor finish.  So I don't think he pays off a $11,400 salary.

Others

• Here's a few more guys I'd look to use depending on starting spot:
  • Jeb Burton -- running the #44 Neice Motorsports truck which has had speed but been somewhat wreck prone with more inexperienced drivers.  Was 1.3-1.4 seconds per lap off the pace in practice.  Slower then I expected.  Worried, but all upside now starting 28th.
  • Tyler Ankrum -- was heading to a solid Top 10 at Chicago until a late pit road penalty
  • Brett Moffitt -- I'm not convinced yet.  His win at Chicago was impressive, but a few things have me wondering.  First, it had been five races since he last led a lap.  Second, Grant Enfinger and Brandon Jones really looked to have better trucks for the first half of the Chicago race.  Moffitt surprisingly beat them off pit road before the final stage and then Enfinger got caught in a 4-wide that sent him back in the field where he got wrecked by Spencer Davis.  Third, Moffitt's truck really came alive in Chicago after he got hit in the right rear.  Could damage there have actually improved the aero on the truck and given him the speed he was lacking earlier in the race?  I'll be interested in practice times but, as of now, I think he's too over priced at $11,400.  Very strong practice times.  Clearly a Dominator candidate for tonight's race.
  • Adding Sheldon Creed here after he was one of the fastest trucks in both practice sessions.

Saturday Morning Update In Cup Section Below

In general, the best cash game strategy at "plate track" races like Daytona and Talladega is to roster drivers from decent teams who are starting from about 20th on back.  So much depends on starting spot and the good fortune of avoiding the Big One.  We are not focused on Dominators at all at the plate tracks because (1) fastest laps and laps led tend to be spread out much more then other types of tracks; and (2) there is extreme risk with drivers starting up front because they will score negative points if they get caught up in one of the wrecks.  We're focused on drivers starting further back who give us very strong position difference upside with little downside of negative points, etc. if they do get caught up in a wreck.

With those general concepts in mind, here are a few more specific notes to help guide you through lineup building for the Xfinity and Cup Series races on Friday and Saturday night.

XFINITY

• The February race was very unusual and very unlike any recent Daytona race.  In February, there was only a single two car crash.  We went the whole race and didn't have a Big One involving 4-5 or more cars.  As a result, we saw 35 of 38 cars running at the end of the race and 28 of 38 cars finishing on the lead lap.  To see how odd this was, let's look at the previous five Daytona races:
  • Summer 2018 -- 3 Big Ones, 22 of 40 cars running at the finish and only 18 of 40 cars finishing on the lead lap.
  • February 2018 -- 5 Big Ones, 27 of 40 cars running and 23 of 40 cars on the lead lap.
  • Summer 2017 -- 5 Big Ones, 26 of 40 cars running and 26 of 40 cars on the lead lap.
  • February 2017 -- 5 Big Ones, 20 of 40 cars running and 19 of 40 cars on the lead lap.
  • Summer 2016 -- 5 Big Ones, 27 of 40 cars running and 22 of 40 cars on the lead lap.
  • Thursday Night Update:  The trends hold going back even further.  In February 2016, there were 2 Big Ones and only 14 of 40 cars finished on the lead lap.  In Summer 2015, there were 2 Big Ones and only 9 cars finished on the lead lap.  In February 2015, there were once again 2 Big Ones and only 9 cars finished on the lead lap.  We have to go all the way back to the Summer of 2014 to have a Daytona race anything like what we saw in February this year.  In Summer 2014, we saw 2 crashes that each involved a couple of cars.  There was nothing like the 5+ car pileups we normally see at Daytona.  In that 2014 race, we saw 26 cars finish on the lead lap and all but 4 cars were running at the end of the race.
  • Nothing fundamental changed going into the February race.  It was just an outlier compared to every other recent Daytona race.  So it's very likely that this week's race will revert to something more like what we've seen in the prior Daytona races.  That plays right into our preferred strategy because it means multiple cars starting towards the front of the field are likely to crash out and score negative fantasy points.  That will kill those lineups and allow the more conservative lineups with drivers starting further back to finish up top.
• As far as what drivers to focus on, it really all depends on starting spot.  That said, there are some guys who seem to navigate the plate track races better then the competition.  These guys have been good at avoiding the Big One most of the time and finishing with a solid + position difference.  These are guys I'll be looking to roster if the starting spot is right.  For this list, I'm focusing first on the guys most likely to qualify far enough back to be good targets:
  • Landon Cassill -- Finished 9th with +13 position difference at the Talladega plate track race earlier this year.  Doesn't have much recent experience in Xfinity plate track races, but has solid background in these races in the Cup Series.  Will be with the solid #4 team that had been running with Ross Chastain most of the year.
  • Brandon Brown -- Finished 15th and 18th at plate track races earlier this year with +17 and +14 position difference.
  • Garrett Smithley -- Tends to qualify poorly and race pretty well.  Finished on the lead lap in four of the last six Daytona races with two Top 10 finishes in those races.  Four Top 12 finishes in the last six plate track races with about +20 position difference in each of those races.
  • David Starr -- Top 20 finishes in five of the last six plate track races.
  • Timmy Hill -- Top 20 and lead lap finishes in all three Daytona races.
  • Vinnie Miller -- Top 20 finishes in four of five career plate track races.
  • Jeff Green -- He's normally a start and park but is sponsored this week and expected to run the full race.  He did so in the February Daytona race and finished 7th.  Has three Top 20 finishes in his last four Daytona races.
  • A.J. Allmendinger -- Had a very solid career in the Cup Series at plate tracks.  Doing his first Xfinity race of the season for the Kaulig team.  
  • Ross Chastain -- In the last six Daytona races, he has finished on the lead lap and has a worst finishing position of 16th.  He has three Top 10 finishes in those six races.  Ross is also in a Kaulig car this week which is a step up for him.  May qualify too well to fit the preferred strategy.
  • Tyler Reddick -- In the last five plate track races, he has two wins and two more Top 10 finishes.  He will probably start too far forward to fit the safer cash game strategy, but would still be a tournament option.
  • Christopher Bell -- Has finished the last three plate track races in the Top 6.  Like Reddick, he will probably start too far forward to fit the safer cash game strategy, but would still be a tournament option
  • Austin Cindric -- 5th place finishes at both Daytona and Talladega earlier this year.  But will probably start too far forward for cash.
  • John Hunter Nemechek -- In three career plate track races, he's finished 6th, 7th and 8th.  Probably tournament only.
  • Noah Gragson -- In three career plate track races, he's finished 4th and 11th twice.  Probably tournament only.
• Thursday Night Update -- Mike Harmon and Joe Nemechek are the only two drivers who didn't run a lap in the lone practice on Thursday.  As best I can tell, neither brought a pit crew to the track so they are very likely to be start and parks.  Advise avoiding both altogether in all formats.  I'm also going to avoid Stefan Parsons, who was a late insertion into the #99 car.  That team actually has some decent finishes with Tommy Joe Martins this year, but Parsons has never raced in the Xfinity Series or at a plate track before.
• Thursday Night Update -- One final note directed mostly at those playing in tournaments.  In three of the last four Daytona races, JR Motorsports cars have finished 1-2 at the front of the field.  In February, the four car team finished 1-2-10-11.  The driver lineup for Friday's race is Michael Annett, Justin Allgaier, Noah Gragson and Sheldon Creed.  All four will probably qualify too well to enter the cash game picture, but they are all tournament options.

CUP SERIES

• I'll add to this after qualifying on Friday.
• This is an impound race.  There is no tech inspection before qualifying.  Inspection will be done Saturday morning/afternoon before the race.  If a car fails, it's qualifying time is disallowed and it's official starting spot moves to the rear of the field.  Expect some chaos then because any decent cars that fail will immediately become heavily owned chalk.
  • ​Saturday Morning Update -- I believe the impound stuff is no longer an issue.  Since qualifying was cancelled due to rain, I believe tech inspection was completed Friday and any cars that failed still keep their spot and do not drop to the rear.  Just double check DraftKings and/or FanDuel starting spots before lock.
• Saturday Morning Update -- The cash game strategy largely worked well in Friday's Xfinity race.  Brandon Brown from 33rd to 6th, Jeremy Clements from 37th to 9th, Ray Black Jr from 36th to 13th and Garrett Smithley from 35th to 14th.  Of the Top 14 finishers in Friday night's race, 8 started from 25th or worse.  So let's identify the Cup drivers starting further back who we'll be focused on for Saturday night:
  • I don't really dislike anyone from 25th on back.  I've got some concern for Tiftt (two poor plate track performances this season) and Houff (first Cup Series plate track race).  Since there's other good options, I'll probably avoid those two.  I don't want to give away a lineup, but I will specify why I like a few of the guys better than others.
  • ​Pretty much locked in Brendan Gaughan (39th) and Parker Klingerman (36th)
    • ​Gaughan has done the last five Daytona races for Beard Motorsports and finished 11th, 7th, 28th, 12th and 23rd.  They've also done the last five Talladega races and finished 26th, 19th, 22nd, 12th and 8th.  That's pretty strong performance across the board and there's no downside starting 39th.
    • Klingerman was in the #96 car at Daytona and Talladega earlier this season.  He finished 15th at Daytona and 27th at Talladega.  Again, no downside starting 36th. 
  • I'm OK with Gase starting last (40th).  The #53 is a part time Rick Ware team.  They've run twice before this year with full race efforts at Charlotte and Chicago.  Gase has been decent at the plate tracks over the last few years.  Over six plate track races in that time, he's averaged finishing in the mid-20s.
  • Also fine with Chastain starting 38th.  Reed Sorenson has been in the #27 most of the season.  This car finished dead last at Daytona in February, but rebounded with an 18th place finish and +19 position difference at Talladega.  Chastain is a really good (but sometimes aggressive) plate track racer.  He ran 10th in the Daytona February race this year in the #15 car, which is comparable equipment to the #27.  After winning the Xfinity race, he's likely to be very highly owned.
  • In closing, there are plenty of good options starting 25th on back.  No reason to start anyone in a higher starting spot for cash games.