​

​​Developments during qualifying left us in a very interesting spot.  Based on salary and starting position, I've narrowed down my possible cash game plays to about 10-12 driver targets.  Here's who I'm looking at:

• Kevin Harvick (39th) -- Obviously.  He starts 39th and offers race winning upside combined with position difference upside.  I suspect he'll be near 100% ownership in cash games and I'm thinking you just have to eat his salary and use him because the risk of fading him is just too great.
• Kyle Busch (1st) -- I really want to see how he performs in longer runs during practice.  He starts from pole and the two other guys I feared the most coming into the weekend start much deeper in the field (Harvick 39th and Truex 15th).  So I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the 18 dominate at least the early part of the race and possibly end up with the most laps led.  But, if you use the 4 and 18 both, you'll probably have to also roster three lower tier salary savers.
• Martin Truex (15th) -- As we documented earlier this week, he has really dominated the last two 600s.  There's no way to roster all of these first three guys, so we'll need to see more in practice to make what will be a tough call between the 18 and 78. 
• Chase Elliott (22nd), Clint Bowyer (28th), Jimmie Johnson (23rd) and Alex Bowman (27th) -- All of these guys are mid-tier in salary and offer good position difference upside.  I'll be watching all of them to see longer run speed in practice.  At the end of the day, though, salary considerations may force our hand in who we pick from this group.
• Kasey Kahne (26th), AJ Allmendinger (30th), Matt DiBenedetto (31st), Michael McDowell (29th) and Landon Cassill (35th) -- These guys are the salary savers I'll be looking at.  I like Kahne at Charlotte, but he's also the most expensive of this group at $6,700 and may be too much for the budget.  AJ has back-to-back Top 20 finishes in the 600 in the 47 car, so he's a decent option.  Matt D and Cassill worry me because they are with low budget teams and there's great concern about them not finishing the race.  I really want to have only one of those two on my roster if at all possible.  McDowell seems hit or miss.  He seems to have odd stuff happen at times and that's not good in a 600 miler.  But he's on a decent team now, so it gives him a chance to finish around 20th if all goes well.

We'll be back late Saturday night with a final update and thoughts for your roster construction.  In the meantime, you can tweet any questions @illinisjc

In the last post, I identified an initial group of drivers of particular interest to me coming into this race weekend.  Here's a few more notes -- mostly about those guys and their performance in the last three 600 mile races and on 1.5 mile tracks this season.

• Martin Truex -- I noted how he's dominated the last two 600 races.  In looking back another year, it is even more clear cut how good he is in the 600.  In the last three 600 races, he has led the most laps in each race and had the most fastest laps in each race.  He has finished 5th, 1st and 3rd in those three races.  At 1.5 mile tracks this season, he has a Top 5 finish in three of the four races -- with a season best 2nd place finish in the last race at Kansas.
  
• Kevin Harvick -- Harvick has been ridiculously good on the 1.5 mile tracks this year.  He has won 3 of the 4 races -- Atlanta, Las Vegas and Kansas.  In the other race at Texas he finished 2nd.  So his average finish at the 1.5 mile tracks so far is 1.25!  In the last three 600 mile races, he has finished 9th, 2nd and 8th.  He has had between 22-47 fastest laps in those races and led between 26-45 laps (except for 2016 when Truex led 392 of 400).
  
• Kyle Busch -- Kyle has finished in the Top 10 at all 1.5 mile track races this season.  He won at Texas, was 2nd at Las Vegas and most recently finished 10th at Kansas.  Last year in the 600, he probably had the second best car to Truex.  Kyle led 63 laps and had 67 fastest laps.
  
• Joey Logano -- He's finished in the Top 7 in all 4 races this season at 1.5 mile tracks.  His best of those, was a 3rd place in the last race at Kansas.
  
• Denny Hamlin -- He has 2 Top 5 finishes at 1.5 mile tracks this year.  The problem is that in the other two 1.5 mile track races, he was outside the Top 15.  In the 600, Hamlin has two straight Top 5 finishes and he was 8th three years ago.  He's run between 4-38 fastest laps in those races and even led 53 laps in 2015.
  
• Kurt Busch -- Kurt has three straight Top 10 finishes in the 600.  In 2015, he had 61 fastest laps and 118 laps led -- trailing Truex narrowly in both categories that race.  In 2016 and 2017, he had only a handful of fastest laps and laps led in the 600, but he finished both races in 6th and had a +7 and +6 position difference in those races.  He's finished in the Top 8 in three of the four races on 1.5 mile tracks this year.
  

We'll post more Thursday after qualifying and then again late Saturday night after all the practices are complete. 

I'm not going to do a write-up on the All Star race.  It's a totally new rules package that has no relation to anything they've ever used at Charlotte before.  There is a restrictor plate, enlarged spoiler and a different splitter.  There is no comparison to anything they have run in the past, so there's no reason to look at historical results.  I expect the thing to be totally unpredictable and pretty wacky and I have no interest in putting any money into it.

Looking ahead to the 600, here are a few guys with good to great Charlotte histories who I am starting to focus on.  As always, a lot will depend on practice and qualifying position:

• Martin Truex -- He has really dominated the last two 600 races.  In 2016, he won and led 392 of 400 laps.  (CRAZY!)  Last year, he finished 3rd and led 233 of 400 laps.  He was the fastest car much of the night last year, but lost out to Austin Dillon who made one less pit stop and used some extreme fuel savings to edge the field.
  
• Denny Hamlin -- I always worry about pit road penalties for Hamlin, especially in such a long race with so many stops.  But, he's finished in the Top 5 the last two 600 races.  And he's been in the Top 5 in 4 of the last 5 Charlotte races overall.
  
• Kevin Harvick -- How could he not be on the list?  He is on some roll right now.  And he's finished in the Top 10 in 9 of the last 10 Charlotte races and 13 of the last 15.  He's been consistently strong there for a very long time.
  
• Jimmie Johnson -- Team Hendrick (and Jimmie in particular) always run well at Charlotte.  Their race shop is literally just down the street from the track.  Jimmie won in October 2016.  He was 3rd in the 600 in 2016.  Last year in the 600, he was leading late on the same fuel savings strategy that Austin Dillon used.  But, Johnson ran out with about two laps left and limped home 17th.
  
• Ryan Newman -- The 600 fits his profile of being a very consistent guy who just keeps grinding.  He's finished in the Top 10 in 4 of the last 5 600 races.
  
• Chase Elliott -- In 2 of the last 4 Charlotte races, Chase has finished 2nd (Fall 2017) and 8th (May 2016).  But in the other 2, he had wrecks and finished 38th (May 2017) and 33nd (Fall 2016).  In both races where he wrecked, he qualified 3rd.  So, he's always had good speed here.  It's just been some pretty bad luck that skews his average finishing position to be way worse than it probably should be.
  

We'll have much more coverage for the 600 in the coming days.