Alternate schedule this week with Cup cars not on track until Saturday.  Both practices and qualifying are on Saturday and will make for a busy day.  We'll have our best update late Saturday night.  For now, here's a look at some of the strong options heading into the weekend.  All of the usual suspects are in play:

• Harvick -- He finished 3rd last year and led 59 laps.  But he doesn't have a great history in other recent Chicago races.  That said, he's been the top dog at these 1.5 mile tracks this year.  He already has three wins and another second place finish in only five races.
• Kyle Busch -- Been on the pole three of the last four Chicago races.  He's finished in the Top 10 in five of the last six and led 20+ laps in the last five Chicago races.  He has two wins at the 1.5 mile tracks this year -- including his dominating win in the last such race at Charlotte where he led 377 of 400 laps.
  
• Truex -- Has won the last two races at Chicago.  Always a top choice at the 1.5 mile tracks, although he hasn't won one of them yet this year.  Was very strong at the last 1.5 mile track in Charlotte, but was set back by two pit road penalties.
  
• Hamlin -- Finished in the Top 6 in the last four Chicago races.  Quietly putting together a very strong record at the 1.5 mile tracks.
  
• Logano -- Finished in the Top 7 in the last four Chicago races.  Finished in the Top 10 in four of five races at 1.5 mile tracks this year.
  
• Keselowski -- Finished in the Top 8 in the last seven Chicago races.
  
• Elliott -- Finished 2nd last year with 42 laps led and 3rd in 2016 with 75 laps led.  Has not shown Top 5 speed at the 1.5 mile tracks this year, but is still under priced on DK in particular at $8,500.
  
• Blaney -- Under priced on DK at $8,100.
  
• Byron -- Under priced on DK at $6,400 and FD at $7,300.
  
• Almirola -- Under priced on FD at $8,400.
  

Final Update: Still liking a lot of things talked about below.
Draft Kings:

• ​Still loving Harvick, Kurt Busch and Clint Bowyer. Can now add Hamlin to that list with his starting spot. I’m thinking Kurt Busch, Bowyer and Hamlin are cash game locks. I like Harvick there too, but could also see saving a bit with Truex — who I think will lead some laps.
  
• On the cheaper end, I like McDowell, Buescher, Ragan and Whitt. You can mix/match two of them with the four favorites (or the Truex pivot) from above.
• In tourneys, probably need to fade one or two of the chalk guys (Kurt, Bowyer and Hamlin). Some alternatives I like are Blaney, Johnson, Suarez and Allmendinger.

On FanDuel:

• Harvick is real expensive and tough to use in cash.
• Kurt Busch, Bowyer and Hamlin all still good selections. Can pair them with a salary saver and another strong driver like Logano, Johnson, etc.
• Same concept in tourneys to fade at least one chalk guy. Can use Harvick, Logano, Keselowski, Johnson, Blaney, Suarez as alternatives.

Post Practice Update: Not a whole lot has changed since my initial post. Harvick, Kurt Busch and Bowyer look real strong — as expected. I also like what I see so far from Hamlin, Blaney and McMurray. A lot will come down to qualifying and starting spot.

Also, I looked back at the last two races and very few guys exceed 10 points combined for fastest laps and laps led on DK. The best guys are getting in the low teens in bonus points there. So, again, the effect there is much reduced given the fewer number of laps and variables that go into road racing. Very unlikely to see any kind of Dominator.


Initial Post: Here's an initial target list for next weekend's June 24 race at Sonoma. I'll be traveling again next week, so don't know how much updating I'll be able to do. At a minimum, I'll try to post something Saturday night after qualifying.

As background, only 110 laps at Sonoma, so just over 25 points total for laps led and 50 points total for fastest laps. We typically see multiple leaders here with teams using different pit strategies, etc. (No driver has led more than 45 laps in any of the last four races, so it's unlikely we see a real Dominator.) So, it places a bigger emphasis on position difference and raw finishing position for this race. Depending on where guys start, it may make sense to fade the Big Three and go with a full roster of solid guys with good teams from top to bottom.

With that in mind, here's who I will be most focused on going into the race weekend:

• Clint Bowyer -- Coming off a win at Michigan and has a great Sonoma record. Finished 2nd there last year. Ignore 2016 when he was in crap equipment with H Scott Motorsports, and he has finished Top 10 in nine of eleven Sonoma races and Top 5 in seven of those eleven races.
• Kurt Busch -- 2nd, 10th and 7th in the last three Sonoma races. Has finished Top 10 in six of the last seven races (finished 12th in the other). Also finished Top 5 in four of the last seven.
• Denny Hamlin -- Not generally known as a road course guy, but he finished 2nd and led 33 laps two years ago and then finished 4th and led 11 laps last year. He seems to have figured it out.
• Ryan Newman -- This guy is as steady as they come at Sonoma. He has finished in the Top 20 in fifteen of his last sixteen Sonoma races. In the last five years, he has finished between 8th-15th every time. A real solid target -- especially if he starts from 20th or so on back.
• Jimmie Johnson -- He has finished 13th in the last two Sonoma races. Before that, he had seven straight Top 10 finishes. Will all depend on salary and starting spot.
• Joey Logano -- 5th, 3rd and 12th in the last three Sonoma races. Has finished in the Top 16 for seven years in a row and has four Top 10 finishes in those last seven races.
• Kevin Harvick -- 4th, 6th and 1st in the last three Sonoma races. Salary might be too high to roster him though -- unless he is starting from further back in the field.
• Kyle Busch -- 1st, 7th and 5th in last three at Sonoma. A great choice to finish in the Top 10, but the salary is the concern.
• Truex is a possibility, but he's been very up and down in this race. His last eight finishes here are 37th, 5th, 42nd, 15th, 1st, 22nd, 8th and 42nd. Unless you believe in a bad one year, good the next pattern, I'm going to be very hesitant to pay his salary with an up and down history like this. As with Harvick and Kyle B, I'm thinking I'll avoid Truex unless he starts pretty far back.
• A few cheaper targets if you need to fill out a roster are Paul Menard and Kasey Kahne. Menard has been solid and has seven straight Top 20 finishes at Sonoma. Kahne was 24th last year, but had finished in the Top 10 in the four prior Sonoma races -- albeit with Hendrick Motorsports.
• AJ Allmendinger is a great road course guy, but he's been terrible lately at Sonoma. He's finished 35th or worse in three of the last four races. He always seems to have a problem in this race. He qualifies well and leads laps early, but craps out as the race moves along. I don't know if he is pushing too hard and killing his equipment or what. Unless he qualifies poorly, I'm likely to stay away.

Sunday Update — I added a few notes in the Saturday update. All in bold. Those are primarily my cash game targets. I can’t argue with those who prefer Kyle Busch or Kevin Harvick. I do think they’ll perform well. But their salaries really hurt the rest of your roster. And which one of Truex or Larson do you leave off? Here are a few tournament targets I like:

• ​Clint Bowyer — showed good speed in final practice, including 4th best 10 lap average. Starts 12th.
  
• Joey Logano — has a very strong Michigan history as we documented below. Starts 5th.
• Matt Kenseth — quietly finished 13th last week; maybe a fringe Top 10 this week? Starts 19th.
  
• David Ragan — doesn’t have great Michigan history, but running pretty well lately. An alternate salary saver. Starts 27th.
  

Saturday Update — I’m traveling today so only have time for a quick update with thoughts after practice and qualifying:

• ​In the upper price range on DK, I like Keselowski, Truex and Larson. Truex and Larson obviously have strong position difference upside. Both qualified poorly but looked fine in final practice. Larson in particular looked really good. He had the 2nd fastest single lap time and the 3rd best ten lap average. With BK, I think he has about as much dominator potential as Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick and he has a $1k discount off both of them.
• In the mid range, I like Newman, McMurray and Bowman. Newman had a solid showing in final practice and he is just a bulldog who should be fine Sunday. We documented McMurray’s strong history at Michigan and he (along with teammate Larson) seemed to find some speed in final practice, so he should move forward. Bowman starts 21st. With the updated Chevy package doing well the last few weeks, I think he can finish between 10th-15th with some decent position difference. Update: I’ve cooled on Newman a bit. Like Jimmie Johnson and Bubba Wallace as well.
• For salary savers, I’ll highlight Ty Dillon and Ross Chastain. Chastain gets the most out of his car and Dillon at least has a strong engine. I’ll also mention William Byron. His DK salary is over $6k, so I wouldn’t call him a true salary saver. I just think he’s underpriced considering he is on a top team like Hendrick.

I may have a few more thoughts late tonight or tomorrow morning, so check back before lock.

Tuesday Night Post:

​Two things before getting into the details on the upcoming Michigan race.

(1) I don't know how many updates I'll do this week. I'll be at Texas Motor Speedway for the Camping World Truck Series race on Friday night and the Verizon IndyCar Series race on Saturday night. I may only send a few thoughts/driver targets on Twitter. And, if I do update this site, it might be shorter than normal. It just depends on how it goes in Texas. In case it's only on Twitter, make sure you follow me @illinisjc.

(2) I'm really happy with the way last week turned out. In my last update, I said this about FanDuel -- "I really like Larson and Almirola. Reasonable prices with good upside. It's probably worth taking the discount down to Busch and/or Truex instead of paying up to Harvick. You can fill in with salary savers after that." I followed my own advice and had a great return. In the $2 tournament, I used Chris Buescher as the last guy and came in 3rd out of 1,785. In a $3 tournament, I used Ty Dillon as the last guy and came in 5th out of 196. Check out this ROI:
​

Michigan Opening Notes
So let's move on to this week at Michigan and hope we can continue on a pretty good roll.  Here are the guys I'll be most focused on going into the race weekend:

• Larson -- He's finished 1st, 1st, 1st and 3rd in the last four Michigan races.  At the most similar track this year (California/Auto Club) he finished 2nd.  I think the only way I might not use him is if he qualifies on the pole but has to start from the back for some reason.  Pretty much going to be a lock.
• Truex -- He's my next closest thing to a lock.  He's finished 2nd and 6th in the last two Michigan races.  At Auto Club earlier this year, he started from the pole, won the race and led 125 of 200 laps.  He's also finished 1st, 2nd, 2nd, and 4th in the last four races overall this season.  So there's a lot of things pointing in his direction right now.
• Chase Elliott -- The Hendrick cars seem to be showing some better speed of late.  In his four Michigan races in the Cup Series, Chase has finished 8th, 2nd, 2nd and 2nd.  Depending on salary and starting position, he could be an excellent target this week.  He will definitely be in play for tournaments, even if not cash games.
• Jamie McMurray -- This one surprised me a bit, but he's finished in the Top 10 four consecutive Michigan races and five of the last six.  He, too, has shown a bit better speed of late -- finishing as high as 6th at Charlotte.  Depending of the salary and starting spot, he, too, could be a good moderate salary target.
• Kevin Harvick -- Not sure he will be worth the salary this week.  We'll have to see how fast he looks in practice.  His last five Michigan finishes are 13th, 14th, 5th, 5th and 2nd.  He did not lead any laps or finish in the Top 10 at either Michigan race last year.  Also, he finished 35th and nine laps down at Auto Club earlier this season.  I'm guessing he'll be more of a tournament only guy this weekend.
• Brad Keselowski -- BK finished 17th and 16th last year at the two Michigan races.  However, in the second race, he started from pole and led over half the laps (105) in the race.  And, before last year, BK had six consecutive Top 10 finishes at Michigan.  He ran 4th this season at Auto Club.  Lastly, he's a Michigan native, so would like nothing more than to get his first Michigan win in the Cup Series.  He bears watching this weekend.
• Joey Logano -- He finished 28th in the last Michigan race.  But, prior to that, he had nine straight Top 10 finishes at Michigan -- including two wins.  He also finished 5th this season at Auto Club.
• AJ Allmendinger -- I'm not looking for a Top 10 from this team.  But he's been solid here with three straight Top 20 finishes and about 10 positions gained per race.  At Auto Club this year, he finished 22nd with a +10 position difference.  He is my top lower salary guy going into the weekend.

Let's do DK first.  I'm finding this to be a tricky week because I really like a bunch of guys but it's hard to get many of them together in a lineup.  Here is where I come out:

• Harvick -- I really like him this week.  He finished 2nd here in both races last year.  He is looking for redemption after last week and he had the best 10 lap average in final practice by a pretty wide margin.  I think he's likely to lead the most laps and have the most fastest laps.
• Kyle Larson -- I also really like Larson.  He had the second best 10 lap average in final practice.  When interviewed, he was very upbeat -- which is very unusual for him.  He thought Harvick was best by a wide margin but that his 42 was the second best car and that he definitely has a shot to win the race.  Starting 13th, he also offers position difference upside.
  
• (It's perfectly reasonable to pivot to Kyle Busch or Martin Truex in either of these top two spots.  Those guys did not show quite the same long run speed in final practice, but they both have strong Top 5 type race cars.)
• Keselowski -- He has an awesome record here the last few years and rolls off 17th offering big position difference potential.  He didn't post the best times in practice, but I think they'll be OK given their track history and the speed the rest of the Penske team is showing.
  
• Bowyer -- Was 3rd in 10 lap average in final practice.  I think he has a potential Top 5 car as well with an outside chance to lead laps.  A good Plan B if you're having trouble fitting the salary for one of the drivers listed above.
  
• Eric Jones -- Starts 25th so has major position difference upside.  Has a good track history but was too loose in practice and did not show great speed.  I think they can right the shop and grab a Top 12 or so finish.
  
• Aric Almirola -- This car seemed to come alive late in final practice.  He ended up with the 5th best single lap time and 7th best 10 lap average.  Starting 34th he's close to a must play in cash games.
  
• Paul Menard -- He is in the same car that won this race last year with Ryan Blaney behind the wheel.  He rolls off 20th and you would hope he can get this car in the Top 12.  He is my favorite in the $6,000 salary range.
  
• Ty Dillon, Cole Whitt and Ross Chastain -- These are my salary saver plays.  Depending what you do with the other slots, you'll need at least one and possibly two of these guys.  They are listed in my order of preference.
  

On FD, mostly the same guys are in play.  I really like Larson and Almirola.  Reasonable prices with good upside.  It's probably worth taking the discount down to Busch and/or Truex instead of paying up to Harvick.  You can fill in with salary savers after that.

I'm going to spend a little more time thinking about how to handle the front of the field, but here are guys I am targeting from the 15th starting position on back.  We have a good number of guys with some potential and reasonable prices:

• Brad Keselowski (17th) -- Will probably be in all my cash lineups.  He has five straight Top 5 finishes at Pocono.  Expect a Top 10 finish with good position difference points.  Also a sub $10K price on DK.
• Daniel Suarez (18th) -- Ran pretty well at Pocono last year.  The JGR Toyotas have good speed, so I expect him to move up at least 5 positions.
• Eric Jones (25th) -- Finished 3rd and 8th last year at Pocono.  From his post-qualifying interview, it seems like they might have misjudged what it would take to advance to Round Two.  Great upside here at a reasonable price.  Also likely to be in all my cash lineups.
• Matt Kenseth (26th) -- Obviously in much better equipment, but Top 10 in five of the last six Pocono races.  He's been highly owned since his return and I expect the same to be true this week.
• Ty Dillon (29th) -- As we noted below, this is one of his better tracks.  Finished Top 20 here both races last year with +9 and +13 position difference.
• Aric Almirola (34th) -- Said his crew told him he had an equalized tire (inner liner leaking air into the main tire) that threw off the balance in qualifying.  Should be a Top 20 car with 15+ position difference points, but Almirola really has a bad record at Pocono.  His best finish is 18th and he's only been in the Top 20 in four out of eleven races.  Put your expectations at a 15th-20th finishing position when you decide what to do with him.