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cup championship race

11/7/2020

The wild 2020 season comes to an end Sunday afternoon with 312 laps of racing from Phoenix. Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano or Denny Hamlin will be crowned NASCAR's 2020 champion. Here's who I'm looking at for cash games:

Brad Keselowski - The #2 team is bringing back the car that dominated races at New Hampshire and Richmond earlier this year. Those two tracks are the closest comparisons to Phoenix, so it has to be a bit scary to the competition that Brad will be in this car. He won both earlier races, led 184 and 192 laps, ran 54 and 44 fastest laps and scored 122 and 124 DK points. In the Spring Phoenix race, Brad was also really, really fast over the long run. He ended up 11th because of some goofy pit strategy during the caution in the final laps, but led 82 laps and ran 30 fastest laps in that race.
Chase Elliott - Chase dominated the first part of the Phoenix race earlier this year, but fell a lap down when he had to pit under green for a loose wheel. He rebounded to finish 7th to go along with 93 laps led and 60 fastest laps. He will start up front and is in a good spot to lead all (or most) of the laps heading into the Lap 30 competition caution. He has a good pit crew and #1 pit stall, which should help him maintain or gain on pit road.
Joey Logano - He won the Spring Phoenix race with 60 laps led and 25 fastest laps. He's finished in the Top 4 in all five races this year at short, flat tracks. He's a little cheaper than Brad and Chase, but it's also slightly less likely that Joey gets up and leads a whole lot of laps.
Denny Hamlin - I can't see playing Hamlin in cash games. He's only got one Top 10 finish at the short, flat tracks this season and he's really been struggling lately. They are bringing a new car to this race and JGR is usually very strong here though. So there is an outside chance this new ride is a beast and he dominates. That's the sound of a tournament play, not a cash game play.
Kevin Harvick - If you go outside the Championship 4, it will probably be for Harvick. Historically, he's very good at Phoenix and he offers some position difference upside from 11th. I'm assuming they were prepping a car they thought would be fighting for the championship here, so it should be a good one. But it's only natural to lose some of the edge coming off the disappointing playoff exit.

Mid-Tier Position Difference Plays

Jimmie Johnson - Had three Top 12 runs at short, flat tracks earlier in the year, but struggled the last two races. Also struggling overall. Probably better to skip at this salary.
William Byron - About the same profile as Johnson, but almost $1k cheaper.
Tyler Reddick - Ran well here in the Spring until he got into the wall and cut a tire. 10th at New Hampshire and 11th at Richmond -- which are the closest comps.
Chris Buescher - One of my favorite cash game plays. Has been more up and down this year, but has +10 position difference from the 31st starting spot this week.
Michael McDowell, Ryan Preece and J.H. Nemechek - Salary savers who should gain a few spots each. Preece has run well lately and at short, flat tracks overall. He has the most upside here, but also the most risk.

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xfinity championship race

11/6/2020

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We've talked so much about Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric this season, but as we close the year in Phoenix, Justin Allgaier is the clear favorite to me to win this championship. He is really, really strong at short, flat tracks and neither Briscoe nor Cindric have shown a whole lot at those tracks. Let's go through some of the details:

Justin Allgaier - In the last three short, flat track races, he has won twice and finished 2nd the other time. At Phoenix earlier this year, he led 51 laps and ran 20 fastest laps. He also won the Phoenix race last Fall -- leading over 80 laps and running over 40 fastest laps -- beating a field that included Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick and Cole Custer. Most are comparing Phoenix most closely to Richmond and Allgaier clearly had the best car in both Richmond races earlier this season. The only blemish is that he has some history of making mistakes or running into bad luck at critical times.
Chase Briscoe - He has no Top 5 finishes and a total of 20 laps led in the four races at short, flat tracks this season. Likewise, in three Phoenix races, he has no Top 5 finishes and a total of 14 laps led. Briscoe's car and performance are better than ever this season, so it's certainly possible he does lead or dominate a portion of this race. And he's got a great pit crew, so it's possible he can steal the lead off pit road. But the fact is we've yet to any kind of dominating performance like that at this type of track.
Austin Cindric - In four races with the Penske team at Phoenix, Cindric has high finishes of 4th and 5th. He's led a total of 25 laps in those four races. At the short, flat tracks this season, Cindric has only one Top 5 finish - but he did lead 60+ laps at Richmond and 40+ laps at Martinsville.
Ross Chastain - In the last three short, flat track races, Chastain has finished in the Top 5 every time, led at least 30 laps in each race and run about 20 fastest laps in each race. He's very good at this type of track and Kaulig brings good cars. One concern is how many resources were focused on Justin Haley's car since he's running for the championship and Chastain is not. I have no doubt Chastain will not shy away from battling the championship contenders and will get in front and lead if he has the car to do so. But I'd feel much better about this play if he was still in the running for the championship.
Harrison Burton - He's on fire right now -- winning the last two races. He also finished 2nd at Phoenix earlier this year and won last week at a short, flat track.
Daniel Hemric - Quietly, the #8 car is closing the season really strong. It has five Top 5 finishes in the last eight races -- including a 2nd and 3rd place finish from Hemric. He is also pretty good at Phoenix, showing strong results from his earlier Xfinity Series stint at RCR and an 11th place finish in the Cup Series last year. Starting 18th, he has the potential to give you +10 position difference and put up a really strong score.

Here are some value options to focus on:

Matt Mills - Too cheap at near minimum $4,800. He's had some of his strongest runs at short, flat tracks this season. This likely isn't a Top 20 car, but he should get you +5-8 position difference if there are no issues. And that's a pretty big if because this car is not the most reliable. But for $4,800 with nowhere to go but up, it opens a lot of doors for the rest of your roster.
David Starr - Back in the #07, where he's had some good runs this year but also some mechanical failures. It's worrisome that this team had another mechanical issue at the beginning of last week's race on the heals of a blown engine the week prior. Once they fixed the deal last week, though, the car had good speed as expected. If there are no issues, Starr should press for a Top 20 and lead lap finish.
J.J. Yeley - He's not all that cheap, but he's a real strong position difference play. He's in the #61 MBM car, which is also not all that reliable. But he has a lead sponsor paying for this ride so he should have a good allotment of tires and be good to go for the entire race. With some luck, he might push for a Top 20, but think something around 25th to be safe. With that somewhat limited upside, he's not a must have at this price, but it's a very high floor and there are not a lot of other great options.
Kyle Weatherman/Bailey Currey - The Mike Harmon cars are some of the least reliable in the Series. If you can stomach that risk, these guys both have +10 position difference potential. I usually can't bring myself to use them in cash games, but some don't mind the risk. And they're starting 31st and 33rd (out of let's say 36 cars because the #66 car is a start and park) so it's not like they'll totally kill your lineup with - position difference if something does go wrong.
B.J. McLeod - Not a bad play but recognize there's limited upside here. Maybe +5 position difference on his best day.
C.J. McLaughlin and Jessie Iwuji will be really slow. They don't have much chance of moving up very far without a really big number of other cars dropping out. They are far too expensive for what they offer.

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trucks championship race

11/5/2020

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150 laps of racing for the Trucks Series championship on Friday night. Here's my breakdown:

I'm going to start with the cheaper plays because those are pretty easy to nail down this week. These are the best targets for $7k and under:

Ryan Truex - Starts 25th so gives you a decent floor and some upside of about +10 position difference. Honestly, though, the Niece trucks have not been strong at all late in the season, so I'm not super excited to play any of them. But the price is pretty good here and there aren't a lot of really cheap options.
Tyler Hill - This team has been pretty strong and consistent throughout the year. I'd rather have Timmy in the truck, but it's Tyler this weekend. I think there's +6-8 position difference potential here. And it's probably a little more reliable than the Truex/Niece situation at the moment.
Tate Fogleman - Tate was doing OK last week and then got caught up in a wreck and got heavy damage. So he's starting way back in 28th. He finished 18th and 15th in the two earlier short, flat track races (Gateway and Richmond) and something around 18th-20th is a reasonable expectation. That would easily pay off the $5,800 salary.
Lessard, Bayne and Hocevar are all OK, but I don't see any of them having any + position difference upside. Best case is they finish right around where they start. Lessard might have a bit of upside since he should have the equipment to finish in the Top 10, but he's finished 20th or worse in the last two short, flat tracks, so the downside is substantial as well.

The upper end of the salary structure is really interesting. Let's talk about the top targets:

Grant Enfinger - Hard not to love ThorSport trucks on short, flat tracks. At Richmond, ThorSport finished 1st (Enfinger), 2nd (Crafton) and 3rd (Rhodes). Last week, at Martinsville, they were 1st (Enfinger), 2nd (Rhodes) and 5th (Crafton). He's won the last two short, flat track races. He should lead at least some laps at the beginning and get a few fastest laps. He should finish in the Top 5. And he's only $9,200.
Zane Smith - At sub-$10k, this is really hard to pass up as well. He has led at least 20 laps and scored at least 45 DK points at the three short, flat track races this season. My biggest concerns are that he doesn't have the best pit stops and all the other best trucks are starting up front with him.
Sheldon Creed - Really good at restarts and been really fast most of the year. If someone is going to dominate, it will likely be Creed. But he's expensive and somewhat limits what else you can do. It scares me to fade him.
Brett Moffitt - Not really a dominator, but probably the safest play of the Championship 4.
Stewart Friesen - There is really no scenario where he should be sub-$9k at a short track. Friesen won this race last year despite being penalized and thrown to the rear of the field for jumping the initial race start. He was pretty clearly the best truck. Now, it was a totally different truck as he was in GMS equipment last year and now has his own equipment. But still. These are his best tracks. He's not a must have because he probably doesn't lead a bunch of laps, but it's a really solid play at this price.
Of the top position difference guys (Dylan Lupton, Austin Hill, Chandler Smith and Sam Mayer), I'd rank them in that order. Lupton is the only one I would be really excited to use in cash games.
- Lupton - Should have about a 50 point floor. Great for cash games.
- Hill - Was bad here last year and hasn't been great at short, flat tracks. He might pick up a few spots, but I don't see him as a dominator or Top 5 threat. Even without top end upside, he's still a pretty decent play at this salary and starting spot. But I don't think this is a must have kind of situation as it might appear on the surface.
- Smith - Finished 3rd here last year and ran 12 fastest laps. Been running pretty well lately and can probably get a Top 10. But risky too.
- Mayer - I've got to think GMS is entirely focused on Creed, Moffitt and Z. Smith this week, so don't know how much attention or work went into this effort. Tough to see him doing too much.

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martinsville cup

11/1/2020

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Sorry - with Halloween and family stuff I just ran out of time to write up anything this weekend. Really like the Penske cars.

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cup championship race

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