Only time for a few quick notes here:

• Really like the Top 2 of Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric. Cindric has been a complete beast at the 1.5 mile tracks all season long. Briscoe has been solid and has the benefit of the pole position and #1 pit stall. Could easily see this combo lead 80% or more of the laps.
• I think Snider is fools gold starting 32nd. Not reliable and reasonable upside is 20th at the absolute best. Very, very unlikely to hit value at that salary.
• Mid-tier I like Annett and Brown the best. Brown is paying up for top notch motors for the playoffs. Annett has been real solid with lots of Top 10s at the 1.5 mile tracks.
• Finchum probably parks in the #66 car.
• Austin Hill in the #61 with his Hattori crew. +10 position difference upside and a pretty good floor starting 29th.
• Don't really like any options cheaper then Austin Hill. Maybe McLeod and Graf, but they've both run into issues pretty frequently of late. I don't feel great about using them. Simply put, most of the options are junk and totally unreliable once you get past A. Hill.

Late Update:​ Seeing Tyler Hill now scored from 26th starting spot. Solid play there as well.

200 laps of Friday night racing from Las Vegas for the Trucks Series this week. I think pricing is a little soft this week and it will allow us to roster three of my top four options along with some pretty decent salary saver plays. Here's who I'm focused on:

• Austin Hill -- Love, love, love Austin Hill at the 1.5 mile tracks. The #16 team just seems to have the best, most consistent set ups at these tracks. Hill won the last Trucks Series race here without Kyle Busch in the field (last Fall), scoring 78 DK points. I wouldn't be at all surprised if a repeat performance is in order. He adds in a + position difference potential this week, starting 11th.
• Brett Moffitt -- Starts from the pole and should lead early on in this race. Brett has had a really strong truck the last month or so and is back to leading laps and running fastest laps -- which is what we expect from this team. Hill is a little bit safer with his starting spot, but Moffitt has tremendous upside because he is most likely to lead the most laps and run a bunch of fastest laps up front.
• Zane Smith -- Great speed all year. He, too, has been leading laps and running fastest laps at the most recent 1.5 mile track races. Starting 7th, and I feel real good about his chances to finish in the Top 5 and throw in some fastest laps and possibly even laps led.
• Christian Eckes -- It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Eckes lead this race. The KBM trucks are always very fast here and Eckes himself has run well the past few races here. And, this #18 truck has finished 2nd in two of the last three races at 1.5 mile tracks this season. I think Hill, Moffitt and Smith will be heavily owned so, if you want a lower owned play with nearly equal upside, Eckes is a good choice.

Here's what I have on the salary saver side:

• Chase Purdy -- This pricing is way off. This is the same #24 truck that won the race last week with Sam Meyer behind the wheel. Purdy doesn't appear to have that type of talent, but this is easily Top 10 equipment and Purdy should be able to gain 2-3 spots at a minimum from his 17th starting spot. He's already run three races at the 1.5 mile tracks, finishing 15th and 10th in his last two efforts.
• Austin Wayne Self -- He can be very erratic and prone to craziness, which is something we usually want to avoid. He's on the radar this week because he's relatively cheap and he usually does OK at the 1.5 mile tracks. In fact, he's finished in the Top 18 in the last five Las Vegas races. And, in eight races this year at the 1.5 mile tracks, he's finished in the Top 20 seven times. He starts 26th, which brings some level of safety in that it won't kill you if it goes bad and some level of upside if he does finish in the Top 18.
• Jesse Iwuji -- It looks like this #33 truck has sponsorship and I don't think Jesse would be coming here to park the thing. So I think he tries to run the full length and, if he does, he should gain 4-5 spots and finish with a pretty solid day.
• Ray Ciccarelli -- Not going to be fast, but he starts 35th and can't really go backwards. He should finish above other weak trucks (like J.J. Cobb) and those who retire early. I'd say something in the 28th-30th range, but that's plenty good at his $5k salary.

We've got 200 laps of Trucks Series action from Bristol on Thursday night. This is an interesting slate with two key decision points that I'll touch on below. I may not do much more on Bristol this weekend because of some other commitments the next few days. Good luck!

1. Do you take one or both of Ross Chastain and/or Parker Klingerman?

• Obviously, both are great position difference plays with very high floors and ceilings. Of the two, Chastain probably has more upside. He was very good in his Niece truck at Bristol last year and should be good again. The Niece trucks haven't been quite as good this year, so I'm not counting on laps led or a lot of fastest laps, but he has Top 5-8 potential.
• Klingerman has been solid at Bristol and solid this year with the exception of the Dover race where he had an engine failure. I'd expect something in the range of an 8th-12th place finish from him if he doesn't run into any problems.
• I'm leaning toward playing both in cash games. The floor is just so high and that's a huge plus at a track like Bristol where the races can sometimes turn chaotic. Just last year, we saw 10 incident cautions in this race and had 10 trucks out at the end of the race. The safest plays are often the best when the races can turn this crazy.
• If I had to fade one, it would probably be Chastain -- which is surprising. For one, he's over $1k more expensive with not a whole lot more upside unless you think he's going to lead laps or run a bunch of fastest laps. Also, his pit strategy and pit stops have been awful this year. They've pitted at the wrong time and had bad stops with penalties, loose wheels, etc. far too often for my liking. I'm not recommending the fade, just giving my thoughts for those who might not want to spend all that salary on two guys.
  
• A quick note on Sauter -- Bristol is one of his best tracks, but I just can't use or recommend him in a cash game setting. He's a tournament only play. 

2. Do I need a potential dominator like Brett Moffitt, Grant Enfinger or Zane Smith?

• As crazy as it sounds, I don't know that you do for two reasons--
• (1) It's pretty unlikely any one of these guys actually dominates to the point where they rack up so many laps led and fastest laps points that they bury any lineups without them. Truck races in general, and Bristol races in particular, tend to see several lap leaders with fastest laps spread among the best group of trucks. And I could see all three of these guys splitting time up front on Thursday night. It's also not crazy to think someone else -- like Ben Rhodes, Matt Crafton, Austin Hill -- leads a bunch of laps as well. So I don't think you absolutely need a dominator.
• (2) There's a pretty good group of solid, position difference guys in the $7k-$8k range that could combine to create a safer, more balanced lineup with just as much upside as a dominator lineup. Guys like Stewart Friesen, Raphael Lessard, Trevor Bayne, Tanner Gray, Derek Kraus and Carson Hocevar all have pretty safe floors and at least +5-8 position difference upside.

3. Are there any usable punts?

• Clay Greenfield is easily the best sub $5k choice. He shouldn't go backwards and should get you a Top 25 with a few + position difference points.
• In the past, J.J. Cobb has been a pretty reliable option to pass the trucks that wreck out, but she's not doing even that any more because she's having problems of her own. Barring a complete demolition derby, I really don't see anything better then a 30th place finish for her.
• Decker is just a mess at this track. YouTube "Decker Bristol" to see the low lights of her race here last year. Among other things, she got spun out by a NASCAR tow truck and her spotter basically gave up and walked off the spotter stand before the race ended. That's how bad it got.
• Bilicki and Bohn would be the next best choices a little up the salary scale.

We've got 400 laps of Saturday night racing at Richmond. We're going to need to hit on some dominators to make it work with so many laps led and fastest laps points out there. Looking over the salaries, I don't see a lot that I really like in the middle range. We've got some decent position difference guys like Eric Jones, Jimmie Johnson and Bubba Wallace. But, I think a better approach this week might be more of a stars and scrubs approach where we try to jam in as many as three potential dominators.

• Martin Truex is great at short tracks, great at night and an absolute beast at Richmond. He has led over 100 laps in six of the last seven Richmond races and scored over 100 DK points in five of those races. He should be in every cash game lineup.
• Brad Keselowski has had one of the best cars at all three short, flat tracks this year. He led 82 laps at Phoenix, but only finished 11th because of late pit stop strategy. He ran 3rd at Martinsville and then won just a few weeks ago at New Hampshire, leading 184 laps and running 54 fastest laps. He also has a really solid Richmond record.
• Denny Hamlin loves Richmond and has finished in the Top 5 in six of the last seven races here. He was way off at Phoenix and Martinsville, but then ran really well at New Hampshire -- finishing 2nd, with 92 laps led and 50 fastest laps. 
• Joey Logano has also been really good at the short, flat tracks this year. He won at Phoenix, led 234 laps at Martinsville and finished 4th at New Hampshire. He's finished in the Top 5 in all three races.
• Kevin Harvick is a scary fade starting from the pole. It shouldn't surprise anyone if he goes off and dominates at least a portion of this race. He was very good at Phoenix, not good at Martinsville and then just OK at New Hampshire. In that New Hampshire race, he finished 5th, but had only 6 laps led and 25 fastest laps. He's been solid at Richmond, but doesn't have any dominating performances in the last few years. In the last eight races here, he has six Top 5 finishes, but has only led more than 40 laps one time.

If we want to collect those dominators, we need some cheap guys too:

• Corey LaJoie -- Nothing special here, but he starts 34th and should move past at least a few cars into the Top 30.
• Chris Buescher -- Running much better of late and getting very close to the form we saw last year where he was a pretty reliable choice for a borderline Top 20 finish.
• Daniel Suarez -- Finishing in the 26th-28th range almost every week.

We've got a Friday night Xfinity Series race with Kyle Busch starting from 29th position in the #54 Joe Gibbs Racing machine. Stages are 75-75-100 and there will be a competition caution at Lap 40. I think cash lineups could get pretty chalky because using Kyle Busch limits what you can do the rest of the way and forces some plays that almost everyone will probably use.

• I'm using Kyle Busch even with the $17k price tag. He should be in the Top 3 -- if not leading -- by the end of Stage 1. He has the potential to win, lead a large chunk of the race and run a bunch of fast laps out front. If he wins, that's 74 DK points based on finishing position and position difference alone. He would only need another 11 points to hit his 5x return at 85 DK points. And, if he's winning, he's going to go way beyond that 11 points and score well over 100 DK points.
• Kaz Grala and Jeb Burton are great position difference plays -- both with Top 10 potential. You'll probably need at least one of these guys to pair with Busch. You could use both, but the rest of the roster gets scary.
• Joey Gase starting 31st should be highly owned. He's in the #07, which is typically a borderline Top 20 car. Gase is a solid driver and Series veteran, so he should be able to get whatever the car has to offer.
• I don't know what to do with Stephen Leicht because it's hard sometimes to know what MBM is up to. Generally speaking, the #66 parks, the #61 runs and the #13 is kind of in between. Leicht is supposed to be in the #13, so we can't know for sure what their plan is. With Chad Finchum in the #13 car recently, it's been running full races and doing pretty well. If Leicht is allowed to run the full race, he should finish around 25th and crush this spot at a near minimum salary. If he parks, you're looking at 10 points max. So it's a big swing.

We've got the Richmond Truck Series race on Thursday night. Like Darlington, the Trucks have not raced at Richmond for a long time, so we don't have any relevant track history. I'm looking most at Gateway from a few weeks ago as well as the short, flat tracks (Gateway, Phoenix, Iowa and Martinsville) from last year.

• Todd Gilliland was by far the best truck at Gateway. He led 76 laps and ran 35 fastest laps. Sheldon Creed got into him and knocked him into the wall leading to a bad finish. Gateway is the only other short, flat track the Trucks have run this year and Goodyear is bringing the same tire to Richmond. So, I'd expect Gilliland to be pretty good again.
• Creed won at Gateway and really stood out for how well he was able to pass compared to the rest of the field. He came through the field from 17th to lead 15 laps and run 10 fastest laps. He was a Top 3 truck throughout that race.
• Zane Smith started Gateway from the pole and led early, but fell back throughout the race and finished 7th. Very few of these guys have Richmond experience, but Smith ran both Xfinity races here last year for JR Motorsports and finished 6th and 8th in those races. I think that could give him a leg up on the field and gives some comfort that he's very likely to finish better than his 9th starting spot.
• Christian Eckes was really good at Gateway as well, but the truck broke and he finished 32nd. I wouldn't be surprised to see him lead early in this race. (I'd say Gilliland, Creed and Eckes were the best trucks at Gateway.)
• I don't view short, flat tracks as Austin Hill's strength, but he starts out front and these trucks always run best in clean air. I think some of these other guys are better options though because I don't see Hill leading a ton of laps or winning the race.
• Stewart Friesen has been running much better lately, with four consecutive Top 10 finishes. He's best at the short, flat tracks. He finished 5th at Gateway this year. Last year, he won at Phoenix, finished 3rd at Gateway, 5th at Iowa, and 5th and 6th in the two Martinsville races.
• Brett Moffitt is never a bad choice for under $10k. He is a contender to dominate and lead any Truck race. He finished 2nd at Gateway a few weeks ago and was running in the Top 5 almost the entire race. I'm leaning toward guys like Creed, Friesen and Eckes this week, but they all carry more risk then a steady, Top 5 guy like Moffitt.
• Sam Meyer and Carson Hocevar are the best position difference plays. Meyer was really strong at Gateway and has a lot of short, flat track experience. Hocevar ran 15th at Gateway and that's a reasonable expectation here. I think he's a little safer than a guy like Trevor Bayne.
  • David Ragan is probably too expensive to make it work. He might be a 10th place truck, so that would get you 45 DK points. I don't see him leading laps or running fastest laps, so that will make it a struggle to hit a 5x return on his $10+k salary.
  • I'm completely out on Sauter. Problems every single week.

We'll have 367 laps and just over 500 miles of racing on Sunday night from Darlington. This is a very, very long and grueling race. And we'll see pit stops at virtually every caution flag since the tires fall off very quickly here. For cash games, we've got some really good and affordable plays starting deep in the field, so let's cover them first:

• Eric Jones -- In 5 Cup Series races at Darlington, Jones has never finished worse than 8th. He won this race last year. In addition to that win, he has two 5th place finishes and two 8th place finishes at Darlington. He starts 30th, so even a career worse 10th place finish would still get him 54 DK points even if he doesn't lead a lap or score a fastest lap. He's expensive at $9,600, but only needs a 13th place finish to hit a 5x return.
• Ryan Preece -- He starts 35th and is $5,900 on DK. He finished 22nd and 20th in his first two Darlington races. He started the last Darlington race from the pole (due to the Top 20 inversion from the prior race) and was running 13th in the Second Stage when his motor blew up. He finished 39th, but was showing Top 20-ish speed again. I think he's pretty easily the best sub-$6k option.
• Tyler Reddick -- These high tire wear tracks with a high line against the wall are where Reddick has done his best work. He was awesome at Homestead and finished 7th and 13th in the two earlier Darlington races this year. He had a lot of success in the Xfinity Series at those tracks as well. The one and only concern I have is whether he can keep the car clean for 500 miles. The Darlington races earlier this year were 400 and 300 miles, so we're adding another 100 miles and 70+ laps to the longest race Reddick has ever done here.
• Ryan Newman and Jimmie Johnson are also solid choices.
  • Johnson had a really, really fast car here in the first race when the season resumed, but he wrecked from the lead and was out of that race. He started 37th and finished 8th in race two. The Hendrick cars have been pretty fast at both Darlington and Homestead this season, so there is certainly Top 10 upside here.
  • Newman is a guy I generally like in cash games and especially in these long races because he's such a bulldog. But, frankly, he's been off his game lately and isn't seeing the consistent 14th-18th place finishes were used to seeing from him. He's a safe play with a rock solid floor starting 31st, but it's really hard to project anything better than a 20th place finish. That's still almost a 5x return, so it's a solid play, but I don't think he's a must have at this point.

I'm really struggling with what to do with my top end plays. There are just too many good options:

• Kevin Harvick -- Dominated race one here when the season resumed, but was never really a contender in race two despite finishing 3rd. He's finished in the Top 10 here the last seven races and, in six of those races, he's been in the Top 5 -- with one win. He's been the most consistent car all year long and is never a bad choice.
• Denny Hamlin -- He won race two here earlier this year. And, with the exception of 2019, has been great at Darlington with two wins in the last five races. He has a few more bad outcomes then Harvick this year, but has been one of the fastest cars all year long. He also dominated at Homestead earlier this year, which is a very similar track.
• Chase Elliott -- Probably had the best car at the end of race two earlier this year, but got wrecked by Kyle Busch on a restart. He'll start from the pole and have the coveted #1 pit stall, which should really help given all the pit stops we'll see over this 500 mile race.
• Martin Truex -- He finished 4th at Daytona last week and has seven consecutive Top 3 finishes before that. He's on a great roll right now even though he doesn't have a race win in that stretch. He had a really, really good long run car in the second Darlington race earlier this season. He starts 6th and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him leading at some point in this race.
• I can honestly see any one of these guys being the highest scorer on Sunday night and there's not a whole lot I see to differentiate them. They are all really, really good plays. At the end of the day, not having Harvick scares me the most. If someone is going to come in with a beast car and just drive away from everyone, I think it's most likely to be the #4 car.
• I love Hamlin too, but going up to his salary makes it harder to fit in a guy like Eric Jones without compromising the lineup elsewhere.

Bets

• I'm seeing that Ryan Newman is near +200 in H2H against several drivers, including Christopher Bell and Cole Custer. Bell and Custer have never raced 500 miles here and it's real easy to blow a tire and go laps down by getting into the outside wall. They probably beat Newman if they stay clean, but I still don't see Ryan as this big an underdog.  

-A few Saturday night updates in bold

There's so much going on this weekend that I only have time for a short Truck Series write up. This is the first time since 2011 that the Trucks are racing at Darlington, so there's really no track history to use. With no practice at a new track for most of these guys, I'm going to play it very conservatively. There are a lot of decent trucks starting pretty far back that give you high floors, good upside and some safety. We also have a bunch of good trucks starting right up front and any one of them can lead a bunch of laps and dominate the race. But these are pretty short races and we typically see several trucks lead different portions of the race so a lot of those dominator points end up getting spread out among several trucks.

While guys up front like Brett Moffitt, Austin Hill, Zane Smith and Sheldon Creed all could work out, I can't really separate them and say that one of them is most likely to dominate. The early competition caution, short stages and the fact that they get six sets of tires (meaning lots of pit stops whenever a caution comes out) makes me think no one will truly dominate and that we'll see multiple leaders at different times. Since there's no clear favorite and they'll likely split a lot of the dominator points, I'm looking to build a lineup filled with solid place differential plays starting from about 10th on back.

• Christian Eckes and Greg Biffle are obvious top plays. They both have race winning potential with +10 position difference a very likely outcome. Eckes should be well known by now. Kyle Busch truck, lots of speed and talent. Biffle is doing his first race of the season, but he's a veteran with lots of Darlington experience. He also won his one and only race last season at Texas. He'll be in the #24 GMS truck, which is the same truck we've seen Chase Elliott and Sam Meyer have a lot of success with this year.
• David Ragan should be fine as well. He's in a DGR-Crosley truck which is what Tanner Gray has been running all year. It's typically 10th-12th place equipment. I like that there's an early competition caution at Lap 15. That will allow Ragan to get a feel for the truck in the early laps without getting lapped. Don't freak out if he doesn't move up right away.
• Todd Gilliland was awesome last week and ran well at comparable Homestead earlier this year. Looking back at the season results, some of Todd's best races have been at high tire wear tracks like Atlanta and Homestead. That's a good indicator for success this week as we saw very quick tire fall off in the Xfinity race on Saturday.
• Trevor Bayne and Baley Currey are both in Niece trucks and should be able to work their way comfortably into the Top 20. I'd be hoping for something in the 15th-18th range.
• Guys like Austin Wayne Self, Dawson Cram and Codie Rohrbaugh are more risky and in less reliable trucks, but should move up a few spots if they don't run into trouble.
• Sauter has a lot of upside starting 23rd, but he's been running into so many mechanical issues this year that I have trouble trusting him -- especially as the most expensive driver on the slate.
• Guys like Moffitt, Zane Smith, Austin Hill all should challenge for the race win and lead throughout the race. They are safe bets for Top 5 finishes if they don't run into trouble. I think Moffit or Smith lead early because they'll start on the outside row which should give them a good jump at the green flag. My thinking right now is to stay away from these guys in cash games, although the salaries with some of them -- especially Moffitt -- make it very enticing.

We start the weekend with a Saturday afternoon Xfinity Series race. We've got some pretty good recent races to look back on to prepare for this weekend. The Series raced at Darlington just after the season resumed and there were two races at Homestead which is similar in that it has high tire wear, similar banking and a high line against the wall just like Darlington. So those are good races to look at and I'll be referring to them below.

Let's start with the obvious plays:

• Denny Hamlin will be very highly owned in all formats. He starts dead last in 37th and is the overwhelming favorite to win the race just like he did last Fall at Darlington (until he was DQed in post-race inspection). If he were to win, you're already locking in 82 DK points before even considering the many fastest laps and laps led he would have in that scenario. I can't really see any argument for fading Hamlin in cash games. Barring an accident or mechanical failure, he's very, very likely to hit a 5x return -- with a potential for much, much more.
• Noah Gragson is also in a great spot after his bad result last week at Daytona. He'll start 14th, should finish in the Top 8 and has race winning upside. He started the first Darlington race on the pole, led 46 laps and finished 5th. He was the best car in both races at Homestead, scoring 74 and 83 DK points in those races. And he's under priced at only $8,800. If he finishes 5th again, he's got 48 DK points (and well over a 5x return) even without any laps led or fastest laps. Gragson can get aggressive with other cars and the outside wall, but he's actually seemed a little more under control in recent weeks and his newly announced contract extension with this team may ease that aggression a bit, so I'm all in.
• Justin Allgaier offers the same package as Gragson, but is quite a bit more expensive at $10,400. I'd love to have them all, but it gets dicey if you pay up for all three of these studs.

We're obviously going to need some salary savers to make Hamlin's $16k salary work, so let's spend some time on the cheap guys:

• David Starr -- He's run this #07 car in about 5 races so far and typically finishes in the 18th-22nd range. He's a veteran driver on a solid team with a near minimum price tag. I'll take that.
• T.J. Martins has been running better and more reliably, but it's awfully risky starting 19th. Might have to bite the bullet here.
• I don't know about B.J. McLeod. He's normally in the #6 car for JD Motorsports, but this week he is in his own team car -- the #78 usually run by Vinnie Miller. I think he'll try to run the full race and, if he does, he should finish about where he's starting. I don't feel great about it, but using him could open up some other options on the top end.
• Currey and Weatherman are good if the cars hold up. But that's a big if. Mills and Vanderwal are OK, but aren't going to gain many spots and also carry mechanical risk. I feel like this guys are a little safer because of their starting spot, but they're also more expensive and limit some options on the high end.
• I don't like Leicht or Bean at all. Leicht has parked the car every time he's run the #66 at anything other then a super speedway. As for Bean, in the last two races, he's retired at the end of a tire run with a "power steering" issue. I don't buy it. The only race he's finished this year was at Pocono -- where his teammate Josh Williams crashed out early. I'm guessing this is an issue of tire availability for this team and that Bean parks by Lap 50 unless a teammate has an early problem again. I could be wrong about this, but I'm not taking the chance. I guess the only thing they offer is they are going to score positive points because they are already starting so far back.

Mid-tier targets:

• Brandon Brown -- Holding on to the last playoff spot. Absolutely needs a solid, no drama day, which is exactly what we want in a cash game lineup. Top 12 or so upside.
• Alex Labbe and Ryan Vargas -- Both with solid teams and both offer +10 position difference upside. Labbe has finished inside the Top 20 in the last three Darlington races.
• Austin Hill and Joe Graf Jr. -- To me, these two are a little more risky then Labbe/Vargas, but they're cheaper and they also offer +10 position difference upside if they don't run into problems.