​Scroll down for Sunday Xfinity and Trucks previews

​For cash games, double ups and 50/50s on Sunday, we're very likely to see a lot of overlapping rosters. There are 3-4 good cars starting awfully far back and it's really hard to fade any of them. It's this type of slate where I usually play less in the cash games and either save up for future weeks or play a few more tournament entries.

Here are the obvious plays that will be heavily owned:

• Eric Jones (starting 38th) -- He was running fine on Saturday until he got jammed up behind traffic coming out of Turn 3. Jones moved down to go around the traffic right into the path of Tyler Reddick who had gotten a really good run off the turn. They both had heavy damage and, while Reddick could continue riding around laps down, Jones' day was done. He'll be at or near 100% ownership and I can't come up with any reason to fade him in cash games.
• Joey Logano (36th) -- He lead part of the race and was running in the Top 10 with less then 10 laps to go and his left front tire blew causing heavy damage and effectively ending his day. Again, at or near 100% ownership and I can't come up with any reason to fade him in cash games.
• Jones for sure (and probably Logano) will be in back up cars on Sunday, so they will drop to the rear before the green flag. But we really don't care about that since their official scored starting spot is all the way back there already.

The next wave of guys to deal with is a trio starting between 25th-30th:

• Tyler Reddick (30th) -- As mentioned, he was involved in the Eric Jones wreck and had really heavy damage. He finished 4 laps down, but I was really surprised he was able to continue at all. He'll probably be in a back up car starting from the rear on Sunday. He was running fine and his car seemed to have good speed before his wreck. I'd certainly think a Top 20 is a reasonable expectation. It's a very fair $7,800 salary and there's no one else -- other than maybe Aric Almirola -- who is a viable option in that price range.
  • About Almirola, he did a lot of leading Saturday, but got the strategy wrong at the end of the race. He was forced to take tires on his green flag stop in Stage 3 whereas Harvick and Hamlin took tires the previous stop and could do fuel only under the green flag in Stage 3. Clean air is king at Pocono, so I really don't know what to expect from Almirola starting back in the field in 18th position. I'd say something around 10th-12th is reasonable and that would exceed the 5x return we are typically looking for since his salary is only $7,200. But I also wouldn't be shocked if he's mired in the 15th-20th range and can never really go anywhere because it's Pocono. He's a tough call.
• Alex Bowman (27th) -- Bowman surprised me a bit running in the Top 10 for most of the day. Pretty late in the race he said Brad Keselowski got into him and cut a tire. (Keselowski seems to dispute this.) In any event, Bowman's car got pretty heavy damage from the flapping tire and his day was effectively over. He might be in a back up as well for Sunday. I like the play. Again, not a lot to like in the $8-9k range given where guys are starting with the Top 20 inversion.
• Chase Elliott (25th) -- Elliott was running pretty well early on Saturday but ran into a host of problems near the end of Stage 2. He pitted before the end of the Stage and then pitted again during the stage break. He got penalized for an uncontrolled tire and had to restart Stage 3 in the rear. He never recovered. The Hendrick press release also said he was dealing with a gear issue -- but doesn't elaborate. I think Chase is a really strong play. The issue will be that he's in the same price range as guys like Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick who had the strongest cars on Saturday and start 19th and 20th respectively on Sunday. It probably makes sense to go with one of those guys over Chase in cash games.

Harvick, Hamlin, Busch and Truex -- you'll probably want one or two of these guys:

• Harvick won and had a really good car with a really strong history at Pocono as I documented in the Saturday article. He's a great play here and I wouldn't talk anyone out of it.
• Hamlin may have had a bit better car Saturday but Harvick hit the strategy/pit timing a bit better. Again, a great play.
• Busch never really challenged for the lead on Saturday, but he has said he is really being impacted by the lack of practice. Well, Saturday's race was as a good a practice as you could get for Sunday's race. I've got to lean Harvick or Hamlin in cash games because Kyle just hasn't shown it yet in a race.
• Truex is really impacted by the lack of practice too I think. He was strong on Saturday, but I don't think he quite had the speed of Hamlin or Harvick. Can they make the right adjustment and get the strategy right?

I'm going to break this one down into starting spot groups and talk about a few guys on my cash game radar in each group:

1st-10th:

• Noah Gragson (starting 1st) - As we saw in the Cup Series race, clean air is king. Gragson has been really strong of late leading laps, running fastest laps, etc. He finished 6th here last year although that was a bit of a fluke because he ran a lot of the race right around 10th (average running position of 11th). He took advantage of some late race mistakes and restarts -- which are typical in the Xfinity Series. That said, his current form is as good as anyone in the field, so I feel comfortable using him - especially at a track like Pocono.
• Chase Briscoe (3rd) - He didn't have Top 5 speed last year, but they did a good job with pit strategy and he had enough to finish 3rd. I don't have much doubt he'll be a Top 5 car in this field and he has a good a chance as anyone to lead laps and win. This team usually makes good decisions and has good pit stops. That kind of execution is key everywhere, but even more critical at a track like Pocono.
• Justin Allgaier (4th) - Had one of the Top 3 cars here last year along with Cole Custer and Tyler Reddick. Allgaier led 27 laps but finished 11th after spinning during a late race restart. His average running position on the day was 4th. It seemed like they made a really bad adjustment on the last pit stop and the car got way too loose near the end of the race. He is also very good - finishing 1st or 2nd the last two years - at Indianapolis, which is also a long, flat track reasonably comparable to Pocono. At the end of the day though, I don't fully trust this team to not screw up, so I prefer Gragson and Briscoe.
• I see arguments for Chastain and Cindric, but I'm not able to put them over any of these other guys I've mentioned.

18th-25th:

• Riley Herbst (24th) -- A Joe Gibbs car starting 24th for $7,700. Sign me up even though Herbst is driving. If he just takes care of the equipment, it should be a Top 12 ride, which easily exceeds our target 5x return.
  
• Brandon Brown (22nd) -- Brown finished 13th here last year and has finished in the Top 14 in six of the seven races since the layoff. At $7,300, he looks like another good bet for a 5x return.
• Joe Graf Jr (25th) -- Would like him starting further back, but he has thrown up Top 20 finishes in five of the seven races since the layoff. At $5,700, he's a solid salary saver option.
• Jeremy Clements (21st) -- 17th, 15th and 16th in the last three races at Pocono. He was also Top 17 at Indy four of the last five years. Would need to run in the Top 12 or so to hit value here. And he's been a bit unreliable this year.
• B.J. McLeod (23rd) -- BJ went on a run of Top 18 finishes when we first returned from the layoff, but he's now had four straight finishes outside the Top 20. The compressed schedule might be taking its toll on this JD Motorsports team which fields four cars that run full time in the Xfinity Series. That said, for $5,200, BJ doesn't have to do more then hold his starting spot and we're fine. It's about what you can pair with him since he has such a low salary.
  
• Brett Moffitt (18th) -- The salary is a little up there at $8,200. Brett would have to bring home a Top 10 finish to hit the 5x mark at that price. It's doable, but 12th-15th is more likely.
  

30th and back:

• Tommy Joe Martins (31st) -- Always has decent speed, although the car is not the most reliable.  But, he's hit 34 or more DK points in four of the last five races and we don't have many great options starting in the back this week.
• Timmy Hill (34th) -- In the #61, which is typically the best MBM car. If he doesn't run into issues, probably a 22nd-24th place car.
• Baley Currey (35th) -- This is Mike Harmon equipment, so you never know how reliable it will be. But whenever Currey is in the car, we've seen it try to run the full race. Starting 35th, he can really only go up because we know Stephen Leicht and Jeff Green will park early and likely finish last.

A couple of Pocono specific points to keep in mind:

• There's only 130 laps, so many fewer laps led and fastest laps points are out there. More focus is on raw finishing position and position difference.
• It's very difficult to pass (especially for the lead) on track. Restarts can fan out and get a bit crazy, but the races here tend to have long, single file green flag runs with little on track passing.
• Multiple pit strategies are available because you can sometimes pit under green and not lose a lap. Some teams play for stage points and pit during the stage breaks. Others are focused on the win and final result and will pit before the stage break if they won't lose a lap doing so. All the strategy games tend to jumble the field somewhat and prevent anyone from leading a ton of laps.

There's a lot to like in the salary range from about $9k-$10k. Picking the right guys from that level is probably going to determine how you do on Saturday. And there's a lot of good arguments in favor of almost everyone in that range. Let's look deeper at a couple of them:

• If you want to focus on track history, your top choices are Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick.
  • Busch has won three of the last five Pocono races, including the first race last year. In the last six Pocono races, Kyle has led at least 50 laps and run at least 29 fastest laps five times. Over those six races, he's averaged 76 DK points and his lowest DK score was 54.75. At his $9,300 salary, he doesn't even have to hit his lowest score in that time frame to hit the 5x return. (Note: Since it's a double header weekend, this race is a bit shorter than the normal Pocono race, so there won't be quite as many laps led or fastest laps points awarded as in previous races.) Obviously, we're getting Kyle at $9,300 only because his current form is not what we'd normally expect from Kyle Busch. But I'm going to have a really hard time fading Kyle at well under $10k at a track like Pocono where he has had an awful lot of success.
  • Harvick doesn't have any Pocono wins, but he has consistently run and finished up front there over the last four seasons. In the last seven Pocono races, Harvick has finished in the Top 6 six times -- two 2nd place finishes, three 4th place finishes and one 6th place finish. Over that span, he's scored at least 51.5 DK points in six of the seven races. He starts 9th and should move up a few spots and give you a really solid day with a potential to lead laps and run some fastest laps. We don't normally see Harvick at $10,100.
• If you want to focus more on current performance, your top choices are Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin.
  • For Blaney, let's take out the Talladega win last week since that's a super speedway. Even without that win, he's still finished in the Top 4 in five of the last six races. It's no stretch to say that he's had the best speed of anyone since we've returned from the layoff. Starting 2nd, he certainly has the opportunity to lead laps and run fastest laps. Blaney has been OK at Pocono with the Penske team. He won this race in 2017 with the Wood Brothers. In the last two seasons, he's finished 6th, 12th, 12th and 10th at Pocono.
  • For Hamlin, he's been just as good since the layoff. If we take out Talladega and the Coca Cola 600 where he lost several laps when the ballast weight fell off his car during the pace laps, Denny has finished in the Top 5 in five of the remaining seven races. And he has two wins in that span. He's also had periods of success at Pocono, including winning the second race here last year. The Gibbs cars were really good here last year and I'd expect one or more of them to lead the race at some point on Saturday.
• The last guy I want to focus on in this price range is Clint Bowyer. Clint finished 5th and 11th here last year. He's finished 11th or better in four of the last five races here and offers a solid floor with some position difference upside from his 18th starting spot. He's a bit pricey at $9,500, but there's a lot to like if you can fit in the salary.
• I could also see using Truex here, but I just don't have a good read on his team right now. Whenever I like him, he has an off race and vice versa. The Gibbs cars were great here last year and Truex finished 3rd in the second race last year. He's also got three Top 3 finishes in the last five races here. I wouldn't try to talk you out of it if you like him, but I don't have a good enough feel to endorse it right now.

As with previous weeks, there seem to be a couple of badly under priced drivers.

• Eric Jones should not be anywhere near $7,100. This is an elite Joe Gibbs team and this is one of Eric's best tracks. In the last six races here, Eric has four Top 5 finishes -- including 2nd and 3rd place finishes in the two races last year. Starting 19th, he comes with a pretty safe floor and 10+ position difference upside.
• Ryan Preece is too cheap at $5,800. He's been pretty consistently finishing around 20th-24th this season and that would be an excellent result from his 30th starting spot at that price.
• Michael McDowell is also probably too cheap at $5,500. But his starting spot did creep up to 26th this week, so he doesn't have all that far to go with position difference as you can't expect anything better than a 20th place finish. He does have a solid track record at Pocono.

The last two guys I want to touch on are Christopher Bell (36th) and Ty Dillon (34th). They are both starting way back in the field and offer really high floors with position difference upside. But they also got priced up to where they are not lock plays and may very well be too expensive. Bell in particular would have to really hit his ceiling of a Top 15 finish to pay off his slate high $11,100 salary. For Ty, this hasn't been a great track and he finished 27th and 29th in the two races here last year. If he could get to 25th, that gives you 28 DK points, which really isn't enough to pay off the inflated $7,200 salary.

Bets
​I don't have much here right now:

• Blaney +300 Top 3 finish
• Blaney +1050 to win
• Logano +1300 to win

Only 60 laps this week in the Truck Series race, so there's only a total of about 40 points for fastest laps and laps led. As a result, we're focused more on raw finishing position and positive position difference since those points will make up most of the scoring.

Ross Chastain dominated this race last year. Not only did he win, he led 54 of the 60 laps and ran 21 fastest laps -- by far the most in the field. Ross started on the front row, took the lead immediately and ran a lot of this race out front. In addition, two of the Top 5 starters wrecked in the very first turn and the pole sitter (Austin Hill) went to the garage on Lap 21. So there's some question whether Ross would have dominated to that degree if he started further back or if the field stayed at full strength. In any event, Ross was a clear target heading into the week. Now that he's starting 16th, there's really no good argument to fade him in a cash game setting. This should be a Top 5 truck and that alone would be plenty of value to pay off at a track like Pocono even if he doesn't lead laps or run many fastest laps.

Parker Kingerman starting 40th is another obvious target. This is a part time team so there are some reliability concerns, but those are far outweighed by the Top 20 upside here. I would expect ownership near 100% in cash games.

The group of Brandon Jones (10th), Matt Crafton (16th) and Stewart Friesen (20th) are all strong plays as well.

• The KBM trucks were real strong here last year (finished 3rd, 4th and 7th) and I'd expect Jones to have a really fast truck. The no practice scenario worries me a bit with him since it's his first truck race this season. Also, he's been dreadful at Pocono the last few years in the Xfinity Series -- finishing 38th, 24th and 36th the least three races here.
• Friesen is hard to evaluate. He started 3rd here last year but got loose and spun in the very first turn ending his race and giving him a dead last finish. He finished 4th and 12th the two prior years. They also switched manufacturers coming into this season and, overall, they're not showing the same speed and competitiveness as last season. This doesn't strike me as a Top 5 kind of truck, but something around 10th is doable.
• Crafton was quite vocal last year that the team as a whole didn't have a real good handle on Pocono. That said, he's finished 6th, 9th and 6th in the last three races here. Not at all likely to lead or run many fastest laps, but as safe a bet as there is for a Top 10.

I really like the group from $6,300 - $7,500. Going from the top down:

• Brennan Poole (29th) -- Got into a wreck at Charlotte but has been a 15th-20th place truck otherwise. He's even got some upside beyond that as he had five Top 10 finishes last season.
• Parker Klingerman (40th) -- Already covered above. Lock.
• Ty Majeski (19th) -- He's been running well this season and is part of the Niece Motorsports team which had the dominating win last year with Ross Chastain. In fact, Ty's crew chief is Phil Gould, who was Ross Chastain's crew chief in this race last year. It all sets up nicely for a Top 15 finish. The only hesitation is a lack of experience at Pocono. He has run a couple of ARCA races here -- including a win over Riley Herbst last year, but has no Truck or Xfinity experience here.
• Jordan Anderson (32nd) -- This team has struggled with failures and bad luck (i.e., flat tires, etc.) almost every week so far this season. But Jordan has a lot of experience and has been remarkably consistent at Pocono the last five seasons -- finishing 18th, 14th, 17th, 16th and 13th in those five races. Starting 32nd is by far his worst starting spot of the season so it helps give us a floor if the luck doesn't actually turn around this week. There's definitely risk here, but no one else in the sub-$7k range offers more positive position difference upside.
• Robby Lyons (33rd) -- The #97 is typically Jesse Little's truck, but Robby Lyons is there this weekend. Robby is solid and the #97 truck is normally solid as well. Probably prefer Anderson for the experience here. Robby has limited Trucks Series experience and I don't believe he's ever run at Pocono in Trucks or Xfinity.
• Tanner Gray (15th) -- We've talked about Gray almost every race now. This is a Top 10-12 truck so is really cheap at $6,300. All he really needs to do is not go backwards from his 15th starting spot and you're fine. There is added risk, of course, starting further forward.

As far as punt plays, I'm looking at Spencer Boyd. He should be able to move up 5 or so spots from his 31st starting spot and that's all you'd need for his $5k salary. I don't love this play and don't think you have to use him. It really depends on how you want to build the rest of your lineup. He fits more of a stars and scrubs approach whereas he wouldn't make sense in a more balanced approach.

Bets

• Chastain -105 Moffitt
• Chastain +600 to win

Sunday Morning Update:
Here are the bets I'm playing for today's race:

• Newman +115 Reddick
• Buescher +115 Reddick
• Ty Dillon Ev J.H. Nemechek
• Blaney +115 Keselowski
• Bubba Wallace +110 Kenseth
• Kurt Busch +400 Group B -- (Blaney, Harvick, Truex, Bowman and Kurt)
• Eric Jones +3300 to win

I'll have a short article covering both the Xfinity and Cup Series up real late Friday night. Draft Kings didn't take advantage of the opportunity to price up guys starting in the back, so lineups mostly make themselves this week for cash games and 50/50s.

For the benefit of newer players, let's talk briefly about lineup building for these unique super speedway races. Unlike a normal week, every one of these races has at least one big wreck that takes out 5+ cars and damages others. We often see multiple wrecks like this over the course of the race. So we're only looking to survive those incidents and end up with as many cars as possible on the lead lap. Also unlike a normal week, we don't often see a dominator in these races. Fastest laps are always widely dispersed among the whole field and rarely does one driver lead a bulk of the laps like we might see in a normal week.

All this dramatically changes our targets for this week. It's really hard to predict who will wreck since so much of it is being in the wrong (or right) place at the wrong (or right) time. Since dominators aren't really a thing and the wrecks are so random, we don't want to have guys starting at the front of the field because they really don't offer the normal upside and they will be a huge negative position difference hit if they get caught in a wreck. Having one guy starting in the Top 10 who wrecks can quite literally kill your whole lineup because you'll be looking at -20 points from that roster spot. To avoid any chance of that, we want cars starting further back where there is tremendous upside if they finish on the lead lap and limited downside if they get unlucky and wreck out.

Xfinity Series
Just to put some numbers behind this, in last year's Xfinity race, 37 cars started the race but only 25 were running at the end of the race and only 22 of those were on the lead lap. 3 cars that started inside the Top 10 did not finish the race and 5 of the Top 15 starters did not finish. If you had any of those cars that started near the front but didn't finish, you weren't winning anything in Fantasy NASCAR. 

With that background, I see no reason to use anyone starting better than 30th. Don't worry about leaving a lot of salary on the table. Let's run down the roster of those options:

30th - Chad Finchum - He's run six of these races, which helps. The equipment is not the best though and he's finished 28th or worst in four of the six races.

31st - Myatt Snider - Will probably be 75%+ owned in cash games. Decent driver, pretty respectable car, been popular already this year.

32nd - Tommy Joe Martins - He's fine, but this car has had mechanical gremlins throughout the year. Only one super speedway start.

33rd - Timmy Hill - Lots of super speedway experience. In the best of the MBM equipment, which still isn't saying much. Finished 3rd at Daytona (the other super speedway) earlier this season. I think he'll be at or near the 75% ownership mark as well.

34th - A.J. Allmendinger - Play him. No analysis needed unless you want to be cute in a large, mega multi-entry tournament.

35th - Mason Massey - He's fine. Decent team, decent driver. But this is his first super speedway start.

36th - Jeff Green - Veteran driver with tons of super speedway experience. He is priced really low because he is normally a start and park. But he doesn't park at super speedways and he's finished 13th or better in three of the last four super speedway races. Should be 75%+ ownership.

37th - Matt Mills - Same team and much the same story as Mason Massey (35th). The only difference is that Mills has a couple super speedway starts, including a 17th place finish at the last Talladega race.

38th - John Jackson - I don't have 100% confidence this car will finish the race. Many better options.

39th - Colin Garrett - He's had some good results lately after a mechanical issue in his first race of the season. This is his first super speedway race. Nothing but upside. I think he'll be highly owned because of the starting spot and his recent results.

There are some real good and obvious plays in this pool and plenty to work with. But, if you want to creep a little bit out of the Top 30 to round out the roster, I'd look at Vinnie Miller. He's finished in the Top 20 in six of the last seven super speedway races. He's on the same team as Mason Massey and Matt Mills. Again, a lot of this is luck, but these guys will also probably use the strategy of riding around together at the back of the pack to avoid any wrecks early in the race. They'll only move forward after others wreck out and the race is coming to an end. That's the kind of approach we want this week.

Cup Series
Don't have a whole lot more to say here. Once again, I don't see any reason to use anyone starting better than 30th. There are plenty of adequate plays starting in the back. The lineup pretty much makes itself and I don't even feel comfortable naming any specific guys.

Article for Sunday Xfinity race is below this, so scroll down. Straight to the point here focusing on cash game and 50/50 targets:

Top Tier ($10K and up)
A good case can be made for any of the guys from Kyle Busch on up. Here are my Top 3 considering overall risk and upside:

• Truex - I really like this team right now. Always strong on a long run, we tend to see those at Homestead. Probably had the best car here last year but had a pit road melt down. Finished 1st or 2nd here the last three seasons with 76, 65.5 and 99.25 DK points.
• Harvick - Been really, really good at the 1.5 mile tracks all season long. Splitting hairs to make a choice between him and Truex. Both are great plays.
• Kyle Busch - $10,100 for Kyle. Just have to love that potential value. He's been really strong at Homestead over the years.

Mid Tier
Three favorites in this group:

• Tyler Reddick - An absolute beast here in the Xfinity Series the last few seasons. Was by far the best in that Series running the wall. Some risk running up there but also a lot of speed. Top 12 potential with some fastest laps. Hits value at 16th or better.
• Ryan Blaney - He's been really fast at the 1.5 mile tracks all year. In the three races at those tracks since the layoff, he's scored 68, 63 and 54 DK points. Definitely looking for a Top 10 with some fastest laps.
• Kurt Busch - Been real fast and consistently inside the Top 10 all year. In the last eight races, he's finished in the Top 8 seven times. Will throw in a handful of fastest laps and get to about 45 points.
• Christopher Bell - I think he's too expensive. He was never great here in Xfinity and never seemed really comfortable running the wall. I can envision him finishing this race somewhere in the 18th-20 range. But he'd really need to max out that projection to hit a 5x value on his salary. Might end up using him, but am not thrilled about it.

Salary Savers ($6,500 and under)
Rough ranking of this group combining expected DK points and salary:

• Cole Custer - Pretty much a lock in any cash game setting. Only $6k with an incredibly high floor and +20 position difference upside. Ran pretty well here in Xfinity and I fully expect a Top 20.
• Aric Almirola - Has run into a few issues lately but this is too cheap for what should be a Top 15 car. Hits 5x value at 17th or better.
• Eric Jones - Also too cheap but a little added risk starting 15th. Would not dispute someone liking Jones over Almirola.
• Ryan Preece and Michael McDowell - Pretty much the same guy. I'd lean Preece slightly since he's starting 33rd compared to 30th for McDowell. But if you need the extra $500 in savings down to McDowell I wouldn't hesitate in doing that.

Bets

• Not seeing much of value here. Will check back in the morning.

Straight to the point. Here's your cash game, 50/50 playbook:

Salary Savers ($6k and under)
Only three guys are even remotely playable in cash games here. In this order:

• B.J. McLeod - insanely low price continues and now starts 26th
• Vinnie Miller - contact ended day early on Saturday; should be a Top 30 car
• Chad Finchum - could move up a few spots, but having lots of issues lately
• Kody Vanderwal - might be tempting starting 37th, but I'm not using him -- slow, unreliable and going to a back up car that probably isn't very good at all

Mid-Tier ($6k-$9k)
Again, not much here. Many will be going backwards from their starting spot.

• Ryan Sieg - not sure what happened to him late on Saturday; love the 28th starting spot for cash games
• Anthony Alfredo - might be the only guy in this tier who has a chance of scoring a + position difference

Top Tier ($9k+)
Rough ranking here considering overall risk, dominator and position difference potential:

• Chase Briscoe - fastest car on Saturday with 39 fastest laps (compared to 27 for Gragson and 17 for Cindric); expect Top 5 finish with laps led and fastest laps
• A.J. Allmendinger - starts 38th and has +30 position difference upside; ran relatively well at this track throughout his Cup Series career - do not expect laps led or more than 5 or so fastest laps; maybe too expensive to make it all work together?
• Justin Allgaier - starts 32 and has +25 position difference upside; not the greatest here or at 1.5 mile tracks in general -- ranked over Gragson and Cindric only because of the risks those two guys carry with them
• Noah Gragson - really ran well along the wall on Saturday; worried at some point he slams it too hard and damages the car or cuts a tire; can he come close repeating the laps led if Briscoe is now up there with him?
• Austin Cindric - he's led at least 24 laps and run at least 17 fastest laps in every race at a 1.5 mile track this season; car seems to start off the race really fast but then tail off as the race goes on; if they're not making good adjustments throughout the race, it will hurt him in race two if others are continuing to improve their cars
• Harrison Burton - I'd be surprised if he leads laps or gets many fastest laps, but should run in the Top 8 with +10 position difference upside and is cheaper then the rest of this group

Bets

• Annett -115 Herbst
• Clements -115 Snyder
• Briscoe +175 to win ??? -- I think Briscoe wins, but want better then +175

Read my Homestead Trucks post below to get a little more background about the weekend. A key factor in the Xfinity race is this is the first time this is a Summer day time race. In past seasons, this was the last race of the season in November and typically finished late in the day under the lights. In a Summer day time race, the track is probably going to have a lot less grip and be very slick. There is a lot of inexperience in this field, so I'm inclined to stick to as many veteran guys as I can since they'll be best suited to deal with tricky conditions without any practice.

At the high end of the salary range, I really like Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric. It's realistic to project them both for Top 5 finishes with laps led and fastest laps.

• Briscoe has been really good all season long. He holds his own on the track and his crew does a great job getting him a few positions on pit road. Once he gets out front, he usually stays there for a while. He is also one of the guys who likes to run a higher line near the wall which is the fastest way around this track.
• Cindric -- as I noted before last week's Atlanta race -- has been the most productive driver on the 1.5 mile tracks this season. At Las Vegas, he finished 2nd, led 39 laps and ran 22 fastest laps for 67 DK points. At Charlotte, he finished 3rd, led 30 laps and ran 18 fastest laps for 61 DK points. At Atlanta, he had the best car most of the day, but lost some spots and pit road and then got a speeding penalty on pit road late in the race. On the day, he finished 16th, but had already racked up 68 laps led and 41 fastest laps for 41 DK points. If he would have closed it out with a Top 5 finish, you're looking at almost 80 DK points.
• Dale Jr - He's in the #8 car which is normally Daniel Hemric's ride. This is a really fast car with Hemric finishing 2nd at Charlotte and 4th at Atlanta. With slick track conditions, no practice and Dale's long layoff, I do think he'll take it easy for the first half of the race. He has race winning upside for sure, but I'm not confident he can get the laps led or fastest laps he would need to pay off the most expensive salary on the slate.
• Justin Allgaier - He's fine and has some upside starting 11th, but he's another guy that I don't see getting a lot of fastest laps or laps led. He's best at the shorter tracks and just doesn't have a very good dominator history at the 1.5 mile tracks. Could be a Top 5 car, so will score points and get some + position difference but I don't know if it will be enough.
• Harrison Burton and Noah Gragson - Either one could lead early, but I don't think either one is finishing this race 1st or 2nd. And having Ross Chastain starting behind them in 3rd really worries me. We've seen Ross be very (overly?) aggressive trying to pass and get out front. It wouldn't surprise me if aggressive racing from Ross sends one or both of these guys down out of the Top 5 very early in the race. That would all but end their chances of getting us a good return on their salaries.

In the middle of the pack, I like Anthony Alfredo, Joe Graf Jr and Justin Haley.

• Alfredo is in the #21 again this week which has consistently been at least a Top 15 -- if not Top 10 -- car. In his three races in the #21 this year, Alfredo finished 6th at Auto Club, 14th at Darlington and 10th last week at Atlanta. That's the range I'd expect him in this week too and a finish of 12th or better gets him over the 5x return we're looking for.
• Graf seems to be improving and the #08 car is pretty reliable in the scheme of things. We'd be looking for a Top 20 finish and Graf has already done that twice at the 1.5 mile tracks this season -- 20th at Las Vegas and 19th at Charlotte.
• I'm not sure why Justin Haley is $6,700. He already has three Top 5 finishes this season, including a season best 3rd place finish at Atlanta last week. I view his as a Top 8 car at the 1.5 mile tracks. At this salary, he only needs to hold his 10th starting spot to hit a 5x return.

Extreme salary save options are Colin Garrett, Colby Howard and B.J. McLeod

• Garrett ran here last year and finished 21st. It's a very small team that runs a limited schedule. But when they do run they go all out and try to finish and finish well. Starting 37th, there's nowhere to go but up. Repeating a 21st place finish would be ideal, but even a more realistic 25th place finish gives us a 5x return.
• Howard in the #15 car has run into more issues then we're used to with this reasonably solid J.D. Motorsports team. But they've performed in the last two weeks with a 19th place finish at Bristol and a lead lap 15th place finish at Atlanta last week. His average running position in the Atlanta race was 20th, which is very encouraging heading into another comparable track this week. I think a 20th-25th place finish is a reasonable expectation here.
• McLeod has been a fringe Top 20 car since returning from the layoff. At $5,200, he does about all we need by not going backward from his 22nd starting spot. Does carry some downside starting up in 22nd, but the salary also allows you more flexibility elsewhere. I don't know if you have to go this low on the salary scale this week in cash games, but it's an option you have.

I'm really looking forward to four races this weekend -- especially at a track like Homestead where we have multiple grooves and have seen some pretty good racing action. But I think we've also got to be prepared for rain delays, postponements or scheduling changes. That's a near certainty with anything scheduled for a Summer afternoon in South Florida. Fortunately, the track has lights.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the conditions this weekend will be much different then we normally have in Homestead. In the past, the Homestead weekend was the last weekend of the season. It was in November, it was cooler and the races would tend to finish in the dark under the lights. This weekend, everything except this Trucks Series race is an afternoon race that should be run in mostly sunshine or at least daylight conditions. 

For the Trucks race, I see this one shaping up the same way as Atlanta. You can scroll down to read that analysis for more background. I'm likely to take two of the Big Three and then fill in with the many cheap plays available starting farther back in the field. There are a number of pretty bad pricing errors that make this strategy easy to implement this week. I am concerned about mass duplicate or overlapping lineups in cash games. I never like when we see lots of duplicates or ties or where many teams have four or five drivers in common since it turns those contests into a 1-on-1 or 2-on-2 driver match up which can be very random.

The Big Three are obviously Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott and Ross Chastain. I said last week even before Austin Hill won that the #16 team has an elite 1.5 mile track program. But Kyle and Chase are still faster then the #16 team and should prevail if they are mistake free. For example, in Atlanta, Kyle ran 39 fastest laps, Chase ran 22 fastest laps and Austin Hill had only 10. I would expect Kyle and Chase to eat up about 75% of the fastest laps and laps led points and it would be really hard to overcome that advantage if you're not using at least one -- and probably both -- of them.

Last week, I decided to use Ross Chastain with Kyle Busch because I didn't feel comfortable with the rest of my lineup if I used an additional $1700 to get up to Chase Elliott instead of Ross. In addition, Ross was starting 27th last week, so I was projecting him for a minimum of +20 position difference. We've got a little different story this week because we have a lot of viable cheap plays and Ross is starting much further forward in the 15th position. Realistically, this caps his position difference upside at about +10. And I don't think we see Ross leading laps again this week. That was great for my lineup in Atlanta but not something I projected or expected.

Who are the options to go with your two studs:

• Tate Fogleman $4,700 - This is just way too cheap. He went a few laps down early at Atlanta due to a mechanical issue. The team got it worked out and he just turned laps the rest of the night and finished 32nd. Prior to that, though, he had finished 19th at Las Vegas and 17th at Charlotte. This should be something in the neighborhood of a 20th-22nd place truck. Starting 29th, that gives him a nice upside of +9 position difference and about 30 points overall. A great 6+x return on his mispriced salary. He did have the issue last week but this team is still pretty reliable in the context of the Trucks Series. He only lost a few laps so it was likely something very minor that would have been quickly discovered in practice. I see no reason to think the issue will carry over to this week.
• Spencer Boyd $4,800 - Fogleman's teammate is also too cheap. Boyd tends to finish in the mid-20s. I wouldn't give him more than +5 position difference upside, but even a conservative 25th place finish gives you 22 points and an almost 5x return. Boyd has more experience overall than Fogleman, but he hasn't raced a truck at Homestead since 2016.
• Angela Ruch $4,900 - I hate to admit that she's in play. She can be erratic, but has finished 23rd, 24th and 29th in the three 1.5 mile track races this season. Probably not as reliable as Fogleman/Boyd but starts behind them in 30th. I don't feel as good about the Reaume trucks as I did last season.
• Jennifer Jo Cobb $5,200 - It's fair to project Cobb finishing just inside the Top 30 here. She is a veteran driver and team owner. Her trucks tend to run slow but complete the race, so there could be a bit more upside if this becomes a wreck fest. Can really only go up from where she's starting in 34th. She finished 37th last week at Atlanta and missed the last 20 laps or so. I haven't been able to find a full explanation for why she parked early, although I saw one note saying she was "too slow" so maybe she ran out of tires and fell below the minimum speed. She finished 26th at Charlotte a few weeks ago and that's closer to a typical race for her.
• Tanner Gray $5,500 - This is another guy who is badly under priced.  The #15 team is a high quality team and it's a Top 15 or so type truck. In three races at 1.5 mile tracks this season, Tanner has finished 8th, 20th and 11th. The 8th and 11th place finishes were a bit lucky since he ran most of the race a few spots behind that and got some breaks at the end of the race. But, even if you more conservatively project him to finish around 15th, that would give you 34 points and a 6+x return on the salary. Homestead was one of three races Gray ran last year for the same DGR-Crosley team and he finished 16th. Will be very heavily owned.
  
• Ty Majeski $6,400 - Another salary I don't get. Ty has finished 13th, 8th and 20th in the three races as 1.5 mile tracks this season. The 13th and 8th are legitimate finishes as his average running position throughout those races was right about where he finished. So there is clearly 10th place or so upside here. Even putting him 15th gives him 35 points and a 5+x return. This is a Niece Motorsports truck which is a top tier team and championship contender with Ross Chastain this season.
• Brennan Poole, Austin Wayne Self and Jordan Anderson $6,700 - $7,000 - All of these guys have a decent shot at a Top 20 finish. Poole has the most upside and ran really well at the 1.5 mile tracks last year. He and Self both have two finishes inside the Top 20 in the three races at 1.5 mile tracks this season. Anderson has had some really bad luck this year. He did finish 20th at Las Vegas, but was 31st and 38th the last two races with major issues. I'd say Poole and Self are better for cash games with Anderson as a lower owned pivot off them in larger tournaments.

Bets

• I have Kyle -117 to win the race from earlier in the week. May add more plays before Saturday.

Wednesday Afternoon Update
Placing two bets:

• Logano +1200 to win
  
• Harvick +185 Top 5

Tuesday Night Update -- Some additional notes in bold below

How awesome is it to have a Wednesday race under the lights at Martinsville? We're getting spoiled with all this racing action compressed into a short period of time. Now let's hope the rain gives us a break and we get in a good and complete race.

There are a few basic points to remember for this race:

• We have 500 laps, so roughly 125 points for laps led and 250 points for fastest laps are out there. Position difference is still an important consideration, but we absolutely need several guys who are going to lead laps and run fastest laps.
• They will not be using the same race package as last year, which is a really good thing. It was nearly impossible to pass the leader on track last year at Martinsville, so we had two races completely dominated by a single driver. In Spring, Brad Keselowski led 446 of 500 laps and scored 199 DK points -- nearly 100 points more than the next best driver (Chase Elliot with 100.25 points). In Fall, Martin Truex led 464 laps and scored 235 DK points -- over 150 points more than the next best driver (William Byron with 75.5 points). (I'm not sure how important it is, but both BK and Truex started the races they dominated in 3rd position.) I don't expect we'll see anything like that this year with the new race package at short tracks like Martinsville reverting to something close to what we saw in 2018 and prior. The take away here is that Keselowski and Truex both remain very good plays, but don't go completely crazy with them based on their domination in 2019 because the race is very likely to play out much differently this time around.
  • In the last few Martinsville races using a low down force package, we tended to see three or four dominators. A couple of them would score 100+ points and one or two more would be at about 80+ points and well ahead of the rest of the drivers. We'll want to build our rosters with that in mind knowing we are probably going to need to hit on at least two dominators to get into the money.
  • The pole position has not been a great spot for dominators lately. In the last eight races here, the pole sitter has never been the top dominator and he's only been in the dominator group in two of those eight races. However, those races had qualifying and practice, so we can't say it's a perfect comparison to this race where Ryan Blaney's team knew he would be on pole before the car even left the race shop. It's a factor to consider, but not a determining one in deciding whether to use him.
  • Finally, in the last eight races here, twenty drivers have finished in the dominator group in a race. Of those twenty drivers, fourteen of them started inside the Top 10. (Half of those started in positions 1-5 and the other half started in positions 6-10.) Another five dominators started from 10th-20th and only one started outside the Top 20. So, we're looking primarily inside the Top 10.

Here are the guys I see as most likely to score a bunch of dominator points:

• ​Kyle Busch - He's simply awesome at this race track. In the last nine races here, Kyle has two wins and eight Top 5 finishes. Eight of nine races finishing in the Top 5! That's crazy. He was a little bit off last year without any laps led or many fastest laps. But, going back to 2018 and before in the comparable race package to what they are using this year, Kyle was a beast. From 2016-18, he finished 1st or 2nd in four of the six races. And he averaged 118 DK points in those races -- with scores of 59.25, 86, 86.5, 137, 164 and 180.5. His salary ($10,700) is about as low as we've seen for him and he will be really hard to leave out of the cash lineup this week. Starting 7th, he'll begin in the preferred lower line and has as good a chance as anyone to work his way up front really quick. Expect high ownership.
• Martin Truex - He starts 5th right in front of Kyle. In the last ten races here, Martin has eight finishes inside the Top 8 -- including his dominating win last Fall and Top 5 finishes in the last three races using the low down force package like the one being used this week. Outside of his dominance last Fall, Martin doesn't have the same level of dominator performances as Kyle. But, he's been awfully strong and is reasonably priced at $10,300.
• Ryan Blaney - He starts from the pole and will almost certainly lead early on because the lower line is a HUGE advantage on the start and restarts. He's finished in the Top 5 in three of the last four races here. In Spring 2018, using a similar low down force package, Blaney finished 3rd, led 145 laps, ran 30 fastest laps and scored 94.25 DK points. So we know he can score those dominator points that we need. At $8,400, I think he's way too cheap for the potential he offers. Expect high ownership.
• Brad Keselowski - As noted above, Brad dominated this race last Spring. He was also very good in the low down force package similar to what is being used this weekend. From 2016-18, he finished in the Top 10 in all six races -- with a win and five Top 5 finishes. During that span, he scored 42.25, 66.75, 75, 82.5, 123 and 124.5 DK points -- for an average of 85 DK points. Brad also had a good car at the two short tracks we've been at so far in 2020. He probably had the best car in Phoenix -- leading 82 laps, running 30 fastest laps and scoring 72 DK points. He had a Top 5 car in Bristol and was able to steal a win when Chase Elliott wrecked Joey Logano. In that race, he led 115 laps, ran 32 fastest laps and scored 91 DK points. He's a real solid value at $9,500.
• Joey Logano - Joey dominated the last race here using a comparable low down force package in 2018. He started 10th, won the race, led 309 laps and ran 51 fastest laps for a total of 157.75 DK points. In the low down force package this year, Joey didn't have the best car, but caught some breaks to win at Phoenix. He was also running up front at Bristol before contact from Chase Elliott ended his race. He's very reasonable priced at $9,900.
• Kevin Harvick - Harvick has not led a single lap at Martinsville in the last seven races here. So what makes me include him in this list? First, he's had a really good car all year long and his team is doing a really good job unloading a fast car and taking advantage of this no practice scenario. Second, his pit crew has been awesome this year and he has the preferred number one pit stall for this race because he won on Sunday. Even with the low down force package, it won't be easy to pass for the lead on the track, so having an advantage on pit road will help you gain spots there. It will help even more at a track like Martinsville where we do tend to see a lot of cautions and, therefore, a lot of pit stops. If Kevin can get out front, he'll probably stay there for a while just like he's done all season long.
• Denny Hamlin - I like Denny Hamlin as much as any of these other guys, but he's priced up at $11,900, so he's $2k+ more expensive then guys like Keselowski and Logano. He could absolutely lead a bunch of laps and he has position difference upside starting from 12th. But the price makes it really hard to use him and roster enough other quality potential dominators. 

There are plenty of salary saver options to pair with potential dominators.

• Ty Dillon - I like Ty's experience at the track. In the last four races here, he's finished 24th, 13th, 15th and 22nd. He was 15th at Phoenix earlier this year, which is the closest comp we have this year in the low down force package. He has struggled of late though, finishing outside the Top 25 in the last four races overall this year. He starts 30th and I can't imagine him going backwards from there unless he has some serious issues.
• Cole Custer - Will be his first race at Martinsville since back in the Trucks because Xfinity does not race here. He did fine in the Trucks and should be fine here, but it makes me a little nervous with no practice.
• Ryan Preece - Finished 16th and 19th at Martinsville last year. It's probably a bit much to ask for a repeat, but something around 20th is very realistic. He finished 18th earlier this season at Phoenix, which is the closest comp we have so far this year.
• Chris Buescher -- I'm seeing his name come up a lot as a value target, but I like the guys around him here a bit more. Buescher is with a new team this year and I feel like they haven't quite clicked to where I have as much confidence using him as I did last year. In four of the last five races since the season resumed, Buescher has finished 22nd or 23rd (I'm ignoring his 32nd place finish at Darlington 1). And if you look at his average running position, it's pretty consistent with where he's finishing -- so it's not like he has a better car and is just catching bad breaks late in the race. His car is simply showing as about a 20th-24th place car right now. He's still in a real solid situation because they don't make a lot of mistakes and he's done well at Martinsville in the past. So, I don't dislike him by any means. I just don't know if he has any meaningful upside from his 24th starting spot.
• Michael McDowell - Far too cheap for the value he carries compared to those around him on the salary scale. He should be able to move up a few positions from his 29th starting spot.
• Eric Jones - For the car he drives, $6,500 is way too cheap. But starting 13th, I think that's too aggressive for cash games because he doesn't have any history of leading laps or running fast laps at Martinsville.

Bets -- I'm not seeing a whole lot I like on the betting front. Odds seem about right on to me. Will update if I see anything worth while.