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daytona 500

1/25/2023

Bets - posted 1/25/23

In the last seven races at Daytona, we've had four long shot winners in Justin Haley, Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric and Austin Dillon. So, when odds were posted a few weeks ago, I looked for good/experienced drivers in good equipment at long odds. Here were the four best bets I saw --

Eric Jones +4000 .25 to win 10
Ryan Preece +4000 .25 to win 10
Chase Briscoe +5000 .20 to win 10
Daniel Suarez +5000 .20 to win 10

There's some wiggle room in these numbers even if the odds you can get have shortened up a bit.

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2023 season

1/20/2023

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The 2023 NASCAR season is just around the corner, so here's an update on my plans for this season:

I intend to publish something for most races in the Trucks, Xfinity and Cup Series. There will be times when I'll take an entire weekend off and any same day qualifying events will be tough. But I'm hoping to cover 75% or more of the season's events.
I'll be starting with the races on the Daytona 500 weekend. Nothing for the Clash or Duels.
As always, most of my stuff will focus on the top cash game plays for 50/50 contests. But I will throw in some thoughts on higher risk, higher upside tournament plays when I have strong leans.
I will also post bets and PrizePicks selections when time permits.

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Michigan Cup

8/6/2022

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It’s an interesting DFS slate for Sunday’s race. Obviously, the Toyotas have a ton of speed and are the favorites to lead laps, run fastest laps and finish very well. On the flip side, we have a number of guys who usually run near the front starting way back in the field after poor practice and qualifying sessions on Sunday. Let’s go through some of my favorite plays –

Ross Chastain - He starts 22nd and was only 21st quick in practice. But we’ve seen Ross start further back and not have great practices this year and still perform very well in the race. He started 18th at Las Vegas and 22nd at Charlotte, but still led laps and ran fastest laps in those races. That shows what kind of upside he has. I think it’s a Toyota day, but can certainly see Ross finishing in the Top 10 with a handful of “dominator” points.
Denny Hamlin - Denny was at the top of the 5-lap, 10-lap and 15-lap averages in practice on Saturday. He starts 9th, so gives us some position difference upside as well. With how dominant the Toyotas look, something would have to go really wrong to go backwards and he’s got a ton of laps led and fastest laps upside.
Kyle Busch - He’s led laps and run fastest laps at most of the best comparable tracks this season, including Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte. He was really fast in practice (1st in single lap time and 3rd in 5-lap average). And he’s not crazily priced at a reasonable $10.5k. He's also got what is probably the best pit crew, which could help at a track where passing can sometimes get difficult.
Alex Bowman - For the price and starting spot, this is an auto play in cash games and most single entry contests. He starts 30th, but wasn’t nearly that bad in practice – coming in 9th in single lap time and 5-lap average. He also has Top 10 finishes this season and three of the most comparable tracks.
William Byron - Starts 20th for a reasonable $9,200 salary. Normally that would be a near lock button play as well, but his Saturday was really alarming. He was 27th in single lap speed and 21st in 5-lap average speed. That said, he’s been 3rd, 6th, 11th and 4th in green flag speed at the most comparable tracks this season, so there’s some reason for optimism.
Bottom fillers – I'm interested in guys like Austin Dillon and Brad Keselowski who are starting pretty far back in the field, but I’m wondering how much they’re really worth given their lack of speed on Saturday. It might be better to just go cheap with guys like Harrison Burton, Corey LaJoie and Todd Gilliland so you can load up at the top of the salary scale. So you'll have to play around with different combinations and see what you're most comfortable with.

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michigan

8/5/2022

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With same day practice and qualifying for the Xfinity Series, I won't be doing a DFS write up for that. I will have a full DFS article for the Cup Series race posted Saturday night.

On the Xfinity side, I'm seeing Sheldon Creed with some wildly high odds. I've seen +500 Top 5, +1000 Top 3 and +4000 to win. All are strong plays in my view. This is a top tier RCR car capable of winning races. And Creed pretty desperately needs to win to make the playoffs so we know they'll be going all out.

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indy Road course (cup)

7/30/2022

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Here are my top drivers for Sunday's Cup Series race on the Indy road course--

Ross Chastain - What's not to like? Top 7 finishes at all three road course races this year, backed up by being in the Top 8 in green flag speed at each of those races. He had the 4th quickest single lap in practice Saturday, but just didn't measure up in qualifying, so starts 21st. Great floor and upside. He also ran really well in the Xfinity race on Saturday.
Austin Dillon - Another guy who ran fine in practice (12th) but slipped in qualifying (29th). He's really improved his road course skill and has already finished 10th and 11th at two road courses this year. He was also running in the Top 15 late at Road America before a flat tire ended his race there.
Hendrick Cars (Kyle Larson 22nd, William Byron 23rd and Alex Bowman 28th) - It seems like the whole company missed the set up pretty badly as they weren't much quicker in practice. Unlike the JGR teams, however, all three have shown Top 10-12 green flag speed at the road courses earlier this year, so there's a lot of reason to think it was just a bad day Saturday and they'll get something figured out for Sunday. I feel pretty strongly that Larson and Byron will rebound and end up doing pretty well. They both were in the Top 3 late at Indy last year before the curbing came up and destroyed Byron's car and turned the race into a shit show. Bowman is more of a mystery to me, but he's also really cheap at $7,800.
A.J. Allmendinger - Again showed his road course mastery in Saturday's Xfinity win. He is just so good at being under control and not overdriving the car, which is key at a road course. He was 8th in practice speed. He won here last year in the Cup Series (although it was a fluke) and nearly won at COTA earlier this year.
Eric Jones and Ricky Stenhouse - Classic high floor but low ceiling plays. There's really no reason to think either can finish inside the Top 20 given their lack of speed in practice and general lack of speed at road courses. But they also start 35th and 38th respectively and should have enough to move up +10 position difference over the course of the race.
Cole Custer and Ty Gibbs - Probably too risky for cash games, but I like their upside to gain +10 position difference and finish well inside the Top 20. Custer has been 9th, 18th and 9th in green flag speed at the three road course races this year. He was running inside the Top 10 here last year before the curbing stuff/shit show at the end of the race. And he has more experience here then most others from his time in the Xfinity Series. Gibbs is in a fast car and has a lot of road course talent. If he doesn't overdrive it, he could surprise on Sunday.

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Indy Road Course (Xfinity)

7/29/2022

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Glad to be back with some notes for the Indy road course race for the Xfinity Series on Saturday. Here are the guys at the top of my driver pool -- remembering that I'm focused mostly on cash games and single-entry tournaments:

Brandon Jones - Obviously. He's not very good on road courses and has been overly aggressive at times, which could get him in trouble. But starting 36th for only $7,600 in a Joe Gibbs car is a no brainer for cash games and smaller tournaments. On pure straightaway speed alone he should gain 20 spots. I do like fading him and hoping he wrecks in the largest, multi-entry tournaments.
A.J. Allmendinger - Far and away the best road course driver in the Xfinity Series, I fully expect him to lead laps and run fastest laps on Saturday. While starting 1st carries some risk, AJ has finished 1st or 2nd in seven of the last nine road course races in the Series, so I'm not worried about him losing many positions. And he's not so expensive as to kill the rest of your lineup.
Ross Chastain - I do have some concerns about the quality of the car, but the thing DGM knows best is bringing fast cars on road courses with strong drivers like Alex Labbe and Preston Pardus. Ross ran with the same team at COTA earlier this year and ranked 4th in green flag speed. He was running 2nd late in that race, but got spun on a restart and fell back in the field. At Indy, he starts 18th and has upside to finish comfortably inside the Top 10. He's not going to lead laps or run fastest laps, but he could still easily beat a 5x return.
Jeremy Clements - He doesn't have great results at the road courses this year, but he has been 18th or better in green flag speed at all three events. And he's finished 13th and 14th in the two Indy road course races the last two years. I think he can gain 10+ positions from his 29th starting spot and I trust him and his car more then a lot of the other guys starting 25th on back.
Kaz Grala - Starts 24th in the #48 car, which is essentially RCR level equipment. Kaz has very good history at road courses and I believe he can finish inside the Top 15 if all goes well. Again, a lot of it comes down to trusting the driver and, perhaps more importantly, the quality of the car in this price range.
Santino Ferrucci - Starts 30th in the #26 car. Ferrucci has an IndyCar background with plenty of experience on road courses. He's also done enough racing in the Xfinity Series to be very familiar with those cars. He's in a good car and has as much upside as anyone back here.
Parker Klingerman - Starts 37th in the #35 for Emerling-Gase. They had a mechanical issue in practice and said it would be fixed by qualifying, but it wasn't, so they made no qualifying attempt and got into the race on owners points. Parker finished 12th at COTA with the same team and has shown a lot of road course ability. It makes me nervous, but it has a lot of upside if the car is fixed and ready to go.
Austin Dillon/Miguel Paludo - I'd have no problem with either of these guys. Austin is in the #68 that normally belongs to Brandon Brown. So it's a decent car and Austin has improved his road racing ability lately. Paludo is in a Jr Motorsports car and he's had some decent results in that car on road courses.
- Speaking of Brandon Brown, do not use him because he's in a very slow Mike Harmon car this weekend.
Ryan Sieg, Anthony Alfredo, Patrick Gallagher and Kyle Weatherman are also guys to consider for cash games. Brett Moffitt is a guy I'm looking at in larger tournament settings.

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Update

7/17/2022

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Just wanted to do a quick update. All is good, just too busy with family and life to spend the extra time on write ups the last month or so. I will not be doing anything for Pocono, but I do plan getting back in the game here for the Indy Road Course and beyond.

Thanks for your support!

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Gateway / Portland

6/4/2022

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Didn't have time to write up Xfinity or Trucks, but I'll have my Cup thoughts up Saturday night.

Cup Series
Here are some notes and my top targets for Sunday:

You're going to want to consider pit crews and timing this week. On track passing is expected to be difficult, so gaining ground (or at least not losing it) on pit road is going to be key.
Joey Logano - He was atop the practice leaderboard with the top times in 10 lap and 15 lap average -- both by about .1 second per lap faster then his teammate Ryan Blaney. Fords overall seemed to bring a really fast setup into the weekend. I really like Blaney too, but prefer Logano because he was faster in practice, has a better place differential potential and has the faster pit crew.
Chase Elliott - If you buy into the comparison to Phoenix (which I do think is the best comp), you've got to give Elliott a long look. He's been amazing there, including earlier this year when he started 19th, but still led 50 laps and ran 36 fastest laps. He was just average in practice that weekend too, so his average times this weekend don't scare me too much. He also has a really strong pit crew. And, at the three flat tracks this season, he's been in the Top 3 for overall green flag speed each race.
Chase Briscoe - Going back to Phoenix, Briscoe won there and it was no fluke. He's only $7,800 too, so he doesn't have to lead a ton of laps or run too many fastest laps to make this work as long as he finishes near the front. He has a really high ceiling, but carries a good deal of risk -- particularly if we see a lot of early cautions.
William Byron - He's led laps at all the flat tracks this year and arguably had the best car in the last two such races. His crew chief Rudy Fugle also has a ton of experience at this track from his long time work in the Trucks Series for KBM. Starting 24th with race winning upside is an awfully hard combination to pass up.
Ross Chastain - At this point, you have to consider him every week. He's been fast everywhere, including Phoenix this year where he finished 2nd and had 17 fastest laps. He did a long run in practice -- which is rare for him this season -- and didn't show much fall off over a long run. He also has Trucks Series experience -- including a race win in 2019 -- at this track.
Kyle Busch - Nothing stands out here, but Busch tends to race better the more practice he gets and he has the best pit crew statistically this season. Starting 12th, he has a really high ceiling if it all clicks.
Austin Dillon - Starts 29th, but has had decent results and speed at the flat tracks this season. 17th or better gets us that 5x return we're looking for. Also a Top 10 pit crew to help gain a few spots on pit road.
Brad Keselowski - Starts 30th in a similar situation to Dillon. Hasn't had quite the speed at flat tracks (or anywhere) this season, but you'd think a Top 20 is a realistic outcome. At $7,100, it's not a bad deal.
A.J. Allmendinger - Some concern that the start of the race will be his first time in the car this weekend. But Justin Haley has some good experience here, so the team should have enough to go on to have a decent setup. AJ finished 20th at Phoenix earlier this year and has a real safe floor starting 35th.
Ty Dillon or Zane Smith - Both potentially in play if you need to save a few hundred bucks. I wouldn't use anyone else in the sub-$6k range.

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Charlotte

5/26/2022

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I'll be posting Xfinity on Friday night and Cup on Saturday night this weekend. Good luck.

Cup
Another weird practice and qualifying session leaves us with a lot of position difference plays starting further back then expected. Let's go through the guys I think will be most popular and talk about a few pivots--

Kyle Larson - He's going to be a very tough fade here. He starts 36th, but still has race winning upside -- especially in an extra long 400 lap race. It would be no surprise to see him in the Top 10 in Stage 1 and near the lead in Stage 2 with 200+ laps still to go for dominator points. There's really nothing I can say against him other then that his ownership will be sky high. So, if you want to be different in tournaments, fade away.
Corey LaJoie - Another tough fade since he's so cheap and starting dead last. He hits 5x by finishing 27th or better and he has a pretty good history at Charlotte, including a 19th place run last year.
Brad Keselowski - Starts 35th, so offers that low floor with +20 position difference upside. He's a good play, but not as clear of a must play to me because of his struggles at intermediate tracks this season. He has only one finish better than 20th and hasn't had a green flag speed rating better than 17th. He also wasn't fast in practice and had a slide and slow qualifying lap. That said, all he needs to do is finish 20th or better to exceed the 5x return we're always looking for. I think he can get there, but I wouldn't expect much more.
- I think you could pivot off BK to a lower priced driver like Todd Gilliland, who can probably score within about 10-15 DK points of Brad for $1,600 cheaper. Aric Almirola is also an option at a similar salary as he's been much stronger at intermediate tracks with two 6th place finishes (Las Vegas and Auto Club) and an 11th place finish at Darlington - which used the same tire combination being used at Charlotte.
Ricky Stenhouse - He starts 29th and has done his best work at intermediate tracks this season. He has four Top 10 finishes and finished outside the Top 10 only at Las Vegas (where he was 21st). He's also done it starting further back in the field (started 26th at Darlington and 36th at Kansas). He's always risky, though, so not a must have.
- The pivots here would be to Eric Jones or up a bit to Kevin Harvick or Austin Dillon. I can't say I love any of those options because they all appear to have limited upside. I can't really see Harvick or Dillon cracking the Top 5, so you're hoping to squeeze into the Top 10 at best.
Ross Chastain - Ross is in a great spot starting 22nd. He's got a safer floor and plenty of time to work towards the front. He's had the best green flag speed overall at the last four intermediate track races. His practice times also looked pretty good as he didn't seem to fall off as much as some others the more laps he ran.
- Joey Logano is a decent pivot off Ross for a cheaper salary, but there's not nearly the same upside. Unlike Chastain, I just can't see Logano getting up front and leading laps unless he somehow gets a lucky break on a caution using a unique pit strategy.
Martin Truex - Love Truex here starting 14th. He's been very good at the 600 and was fastest in 5 and 10 lap average speed in practice.
- I could also see using Denny Hamlin or Kyle Busch as all the Toyotas looked really strong in practice after a strong performance at the last intermediate track in Kansas. Chase Elliott is also in play as he's got a great history at Charlotte.

Xfinity
With the way qualifying played out, we're going to have a lot of lineups looking alike. I'm going to go over what should be the popular plays with a few pivots off them.

Ty Gibbs and Riley Herbst - A lot of lineups will probably start with these two. Gibbs, in particular, has a huge ceiling starting from the back with a car we know will have race winning type speed. Herbst is probably still the way to go in cash games, but I wouldn't hesitate pivoting off him in other contests. While his results have been surprisingly consistent this year, he's still not someone I can fully trust.
Brandon Brown and Myatt Snider - I think a lot of lineups will also feature these two at $7k and under starting 32nd and 33rd. They've both got +15 position difference upside with high floors starting so far back. Garrett Smithley is also a position difference option in the same price range. He's an experienced Xfinity Series driver who is in Alex Labbe's normal car this week because Labbe didn't have sponsorship for the entire year. I don't think he has quite the upside that Brown and Snider do. A pivot I do like in this range is Jeremy Clements. He starts a little further forward (23rd), but if he can come close to repeating his 11th place finish at Las Vegas earlier this year, he would be a huge bargain at only $6,400.
Anthony Alfredo and Jeffrey Earnhardt - Two more major position difference plays in a similar price range. I do like Alfredo and he seems to be developing more consistency this year finishing in the Top 15 most weeks. Earnhardt can be a little hit or miss and the car failure in practice concerns me to some extent. But he does start dead last and can only move forward. That car does typically have Top 20 speed. The pivots off them would probably be Ryan Sieg or Austin Hill. Particularly Hill should have the speed to break the Top 10 if things go perfectly.

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texas

5/19/2022

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It will be Xfinity only for me this weekend. I'll post my notes here late Friday night after practice and qualifying.

Looks like we'll have some real popular drivers in cash games and single entry tournaments. Here is how I see most lineup builds going--

Grab at least two of the decent guys starting from 32nd on back
- Landon Cassill -- Plenty of experience here, good car, should be able to finish in the Top 12
- Anthony Alfredo -- He's finished 17th or better in ten out of eleven races this season and will easily hit value if he does so again
- Alex Labbe -- He's finished inside the Top 20 in eight of the last nine races this season and has experience here
- Jeffrey Earnhardt -- This team has a couple of Top 5 finishes with John Hunter Nemechek driver, but has otherwise struggled for consistency - maybe a little pricey for the risk and limited upside you're getting
Grab one or two potential leaders
- Noah Gragson - starts up front and it's hard to pass here under the green flag - wasn't the fastest in practice, but also did not fall off much at all over his long practice run
- William Byron - expensive, but has both position difference and lap leader potential - he might take a little while to settle in to the car after being away from Xfinity for several years, but I expect him to be fighting near the front as the race moves along
- Ty Gibbs - the #54 team won both Texas races last year with Kyle Busch and John Hunter Nemechek driving - but this is Ty's first Texas race, so can he continue the streak?
- Justin Allgaier - running as well as anyone right now and has a ton of Texas experience
Fill it out
- Ryan Vargas - got loose in practice and qualifying, but had good speed - finished pretty well on lower wear 1.5 mile tracks last season (24th and 22nd at Texas)
- C.J. McLaughlin - sub-$5k is just too cheap for a halfway decent car that can't really go backwards - he finished 24th earlier this year at Las Vegas, which is a reasonable expectation here
- Sheldon Creed - priced way down at $8,100 in a car that should have Top 10 speed and maybe a bit more

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