Since I'm in the playoffs and trying to win a couple of fantasy NASCAR leagues, I can't give away all the strategy here. If you have something specific you'd like my thoughts on, you can DM me on Twitter @dfsnascarguy and I'll do my best to respond privately.

These are the cash game plays I'd build around --

• Kyle Larson - Real hard to pass on him at a fair price with the potential to lead 100 laps or more starting from the pole. The earlier Vegas race, Kansas and Charlotte are the best comps for this week and Larson led 100+ laps and scored 98+ DK points in all three of those races.
• Chase Elliott/Kyle Busch - Both good options to possibly pair with Larson. Elliott has been really fast the last three times out at Las Vegas but had crazy problems that crushed him. Busch has been his best in the 550 HP package this year with four straight Top 5 finishes.
• There are a number of guys in the $8k-$10k range that have a lot of potential, but could be too risky for cash games. Martin Truex, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Brad Keselowski and Alex Bowman all could win or lead a bunch of laps and blow open this slate. 
• Chris Buescher - Simply put, this is his best type of track. At our three top comps this season, he's finished 14th (Vegas 1), 8th (Kansas) and 8th (Charlotte). As safe and solid as they come with a fair price and 25th starting spot.
• Daniel Suarez, Ryan Newman and Cole Custer are also guys in that price range that could work.
• None of the true punts is any good. Alfredo is usable because of his cheaper salary and the number of really slow cars behind him. His worst finish in the six 1.5 mile track races this year is 27th. Not exciting, but if the salary savings gets you something you like, you can go for it.

Bets

• Austin Dillon +115 Kurt Busch
• Chris Beuscher +115 Aric Almirola

I'm taking the Xfinity race off to give myself extra time on the Cup race. In a few playoff tournaments and need to make sure I'm ready.

Getting back close to normal on the COVID front. Thanks for all the well wishes. Still going to be a bit shorter today.

It seems to me there are a few badly mispriced trucks here --

• J.H. Nemechek $10,400 -- He beat Kyle Busch here earlier this year. He starts on the pole and has the best pit box. He's won three out of five races at 1.5 mile tracks this season and finished 3rd and 5th in the other two. A win and he's in the championship race. I think we'll see his best effort here and $10.4k is too cheap for the safety of a Top 5 finish and the upside of leading 100 laps and crushing the field.
• Christian Eckes $7,300 -- WTF? This is the the #98 ThorSport truck. The worst finish for this truck at the 1.5 mile tracks this season is 11th. Eckes has been in it three times at 1.5 mile tracks and finished 9th (at Las Vegas!), 4th and 11th. He starts 15th, so has pretty easy +4/5 position difference. Just crazy that he's cheaper then guys like Derek Kraus and Drew Dollar who consistently wreck themselves and others.
• Tanner Gray $7,700 -- I get that Gray can be erratic and scary to have in cash games. But he starts 29th in a truck that can easily get into the Top 10-12 on speed. His worst finish at the 1.5 mile tracks this season is 22nd and he has two Top 12 finishes -- including a 12th earlier this season at Las Vegas. And he finished 8th and 3rd with the same team last year at Las Vegas. Starting 29th, there is +20 position difference upside here with reliable equipment. Again, this seems crazy to me. If there were ever going to be a time to buy in on Gray in cash games, this is it.
• Sheldon Creed $10,900 -- He's actually pretty fairly priced considering how sketchy he's been at the 1.5 mile tracks this season. But he's brought his "A Game" for the playoffs just like last year. I do think he'll run well and he gives you some + position difference upside as well from the 9th starting spot. If JHN doesn't win on Friday, Creed is the next most likely guy to advance on to the championship race.

Let's talk about a few other guys who seem tempting --

• Grant Enfinger $10,000 -- He's in the #9, which is maybe a 12th-15th place truck at best. He was able to squeeze out a surprising 7th here earlier this year in this truck, but also has 14th and 17th place finishes at 1.5 mile tracks. He might inch across the 5x target return here, but I just don't see the value or upside. Brett Moffitt has a very similar profile for almost $1k less.
• Dylan Lupton $8,300 -- He starts 36th and is running for Reaume Brothers. But this is part of newly formed partnership that is supposed to up the game for this organization. It's their first joint effort. All that is awfully scary. Can they run in the Top 20? Maybe so. But is that really enough? And without practice, we really have no idea what kind of speed or reliability they're going to have. It's not like the Reaume team has good notes on how to set up a fast truck here. That's just not their business model. So we'd just be guessing.

Cheap guys I'd be willing to consider:

• Danny Bohn - could get you +6-8 position difference if all goes well
• Bret Holmes - if he can just finish, he'll give a good return
• Howie Disavino - so cheap, just don't wreck

So we've got an ongoing COVID outbreak in our house. Three of five have it. Luckily, everyone is doing well and seems well on the road to full recovery. But it's chaotic. So I'm skipping the Trucks and Xfinity races at Bristol entirely. I'll be playing some in the Cup race, but I'm not sure if I'll have time to post an article Friday night.

​Hopefully back to normal soon. Stay safe out there.

For cash games, it's a stars and scrubs week for sure. We've got a number of really good high end plays and some palatable cheaper options to go with them. Here are the guys I'm focusing on:

• Denny Hamlin - Virtually a must play at only $10,400. The #54 car has been awesome most of the year and this is a great track for Hamlin. Starting 14th, he offers position difference upside to go with the likelihood of leading laps and running fastest laps. A sky high ceiling.
• Austin Cindric, Tyler Reddick, Brandon Jones and Austin Dillon are all really good plays as well.
  • Cindric is the safest of this group because he's the highest quality driver in a top end car. He hasn't been great at Darlington, so I wouldn't expect a lot of dominator points, but a Top 10 is a pretty safe bet.
  • I'd probably put Reddick second in this group. He's well known for running really fast up against the wall at high tire wear tracks (think Darlington and Homestead). He's in the #23 Our Motorsports car, which has shown good speed when a good driver is in it. Not as safe a bet as Cindric for a Top 10, but he should get there as long as he doesn't have any reliability issues with the car.
  • Dillon is third for me because he's in the #31 for Jordan Anderson and we just can't be sure how good the car will be. You've got to figure this is essentially and RCR prepared car because Dillon would probably not be driving it unless that was the case. So it will probably be OK, but it worries me that this car has faded and had some problems the last month or so. For now, I've got Dillon slightly over Jones. 
  • Jones is last in this group for me and I'm very reluctant to use him in cash games because he always seem to have something go wrong. That said, in the last two Darlington races, he's finished 3rd and 1st -- so the upside is there. So is the risk. I do like that Gibbs is always fast here and we know the cars are as reliable as any in this series.
• On the cheap side, here are the guys:
  • B.J. McLeod - He's in the #90 for DGM this week. This is same team that runs Josh Williams and Alex Labbe, so we know these can be Top 20 cars. And I love that B.J. is a very experienced driver who knows how to take car of his car. Starting 39th, you have a super safe floor and quite a bit of position difference upside. He's not real cheap, but he doesn't even need to max out his ceiling to easily hit 5x value here.
  • Ryan Ellis - Ran well here earlier this year with a surprising 16th place finish. The #99 isn't super fast, but it's generally pretty reliable and I feel pretty confident with Ellis. He's not going to repeat a Top 20, but I think something in the 25th-30th range is a reasonable projection.
  • The last spot here is tough.
    
    • I could see a case for Carson Ware or Kyle Weatherman, but the Mike Harmon cars have not run well here and you need tires, which they might not have. Although I doubt Ware would run over there unless he's bringing money to run it full. But Ware also has no experience at Darlington, which is concerning.
    • I could see going super cheap with Mason Massey. He starts up in 26th, but he's in the Rick Ware car, which is generally OK in the Xfinity Series. Massey is decent, but has only one race here. The car should be good enough to move up a couple of spots and he really is too cheap.
    • Lastly, maybe a guy like Jesse Little just to keep the car pointed straight and pass the guys who wreck out. Don't love it, but it's probably safer than everyone else I've mentioned for this last spot. 

Not into giving out full lineups, so this has to be incredibly short. Use guys starting 27th or worse and stay away from the Rick Ware and MBM cars due to unreliability and risk of losing the draft. Other than that, you're fine.

As always, don't over do it at the super speedways.

There's not much to say about this. For cash games, there's absolutely no reason to use anyone starting higher than 30th. All of the guys starting in the 30s are fine. The only guy I probably wouldn't use is Tim Viens starting 40th. Other than that, a few notes:

• 30th Mason Massey - I kind of like him because the McLeod cars reliably run in the back to avoid wrecks. So there's a decent chance he finishes the race and gives you some decent + position difference.
• 31st Brandon Brown - Higher risk and variance here. Has the car to finish in the Top 5, but is also more likely to race hard and wreck.
• 32nd David Starr - Some reliability concern with an MBM car and is in the middle of the road on the risk/variance scale.
• 33rd Colby Howard - I like this. Normally reliable car and the whole JD Motorsports team tends to hang near the back to avoid wrecks until late in the race.
• 34th J.J. Yeley - The best driver (other than Chase Briscoe) back here. Not sure how aggressive he will be.
• 35th Jason White - Had a great run here in the Spring (10th place finish). Questionable reliability since it's an MBM car. Expensive.
• 36th Caesar Bacarella - Tends to run in the back for most of the race and in a pretty reliable car. 12th here in the Spring.
• 37th Chase Briscoe - Figure everyone will use him. For cash games, it's fine. Smart fade in tournaments.
• 38th Spencer Boyd - Questionable reliability from the car. Spencer is very likely to ride in the back and keep the car clean.
• 39th Joe Graf - Ugh. Might have to use him despite him not being very reliable. Probably just too good a car in too juicy a starting spot to pass up.
• 40th Tim Viens - No thanks. Unreliable driver and car.

It has been an awfully crazy and unpredictable weekend of racing so far. And we look up and see Daytona starring us in the face for next weekend. Wow. Let's look at this Cup race on Sunday. Here are my cash game and single entry targets:

• The range from $7,000-$8,100 has a number of strong plays and should be the core of your lineup:
  • Christopher Bell (28th) - Gibbs typically brings really competitive cars to Michigan. It's difficult to pass on track here, but there are some strategy and pit call options available to gain track position. I could easily see Bell going +15 position difference here and that's not even his ceiling.
  • Austin Dillon (26th) - I wouldn't be surprised to see a two tire call from this team to gain track position. Battling his teammate Reddick for the final playoff spot, so you know you'll be getting their best effort here.
  • Daniel Suarez (30th) - Suarez has had a number of very strong runs in the 550 HP package this year. A Top 20 is certainly within reach here.
  • Tyler Reddick (14th) - A little more aggressive starting 14th, but he's been very consistent and strong in the 500 HP package. Holds the final playoff spot on points heading into Sunday's race.
  • Cole Custer (27th) - SHR has been a little better lately. Should have a good start on the setup from Harvick. Really affordable at only $7k.
  • Ross Chastain (22nd) - He and his teammate Kurt Busch have had really good speed ever since their double engine failures at Charlotte. +10 position difference is on the table here.
• Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch. Love them both.
  • Larson has, of course, been awesome from start to finish this year. And the two mile tracks at Auto Club and Michigan were arguably his best tracks back from his days at Ganassi. It's hard to pass the leader here, so this could be a race where Larson sets sail and never looks back. But we have a Lap 20 competition caution where everyone should pit (because it allows them to make it to the end of Stage 1), so we already know there will be an early restart. And we can sometimes see no tire or two tire stops here to gain track position. All those variables could throw Larson off a dominating performance.
  • Busch has finished inside the Top 6 at the last six Michigan races. And he's been probably second best to Larson in the 550 HP package this season. Starting 7th, he offers some + position difference upside and is cheaper than Larson.
• Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski - They are in an odd middle ground this week. Not as much position difference upside as the first group and not as much dominator potential as the Kyles. These guys also swapped spotters this week with T.J. Majors (one of the best) shifting from Logano to BK.
  
  • Reading some tea leaves here, I think this is the point where BK is going to start getting shut off from full Penske support. He's leaving at year end and, from this week's moves, seems likely to take Majors with him. It's common for teams to start to freeze out a driver who is moving to a new team the following year because they don't want all the in house secrets going too. So I'm not 100% sure that BK will be getting all Penske has to offer from this point on.
    
  • I'm also worried about Logano working with a new spotter at a track like Michigan where restarts and momentum are such a big factor.

Well that was a wild Truck Series race Friday night. It turned into a Daytona plate track race in a hurry. Don't think the Michigan races will be anywhere near as eventful. It's a very fast, but also very wide track that offers plenty of room. We have not seen more than a handful of incident cautions here over the last several races. And you really need power here, so the gap between the have and have nots in the Xfinity Series get pretty big at this track. Here are my main cash game options at this time:

• Ty Gibbs - Starts 10th with race winning upside. This #54 car has been incredible whenever it has a good driver and I'd expect nothing different this weekend.
• Tyler Reddick - Starts 22nd in the second Our Motorsports car. This is a solid car and Reddick certainly has the ability to get it around the Top 10, but this isn't a race leading or race winning car. So you're looking at how much position difference you can get here.
• Brandon Jones - I am very reluctant to use Jones in cash games because he makes to many mistakes and "bad luck" always seems to find him. That said, he's still in a Gibbs car and he's still starting 24th.
  • Josh Berry officially starts 17th in the #1 car replacing Michael Annett. But he'll have to drop to the rear for a driver change off the initial entry list. I do think Josh can finish in the Top 10, but starting in the rear adds some risk.
• Sam Mayer - Starts 16th in the #8 Jr. Motorsports car. While Sam has somewhat limited experience on these big tracks, this is definitely a Top 10 car. So all he needs to do is stay out of trouble. He's $700 cheaper than Berry, so I'd lean Mayer since he doesn't have to start in the back.
• Jeb Burton - Starts 12th and could move up a few spots from there. He seems like a pretty safe bet here and has a good $8,300 price tag.
• Brandon Brown - Starts 25th and has +10 position difference upside from there. He's fighting for the last playoff spot, so I'd expect maximum effort here from Brown's team.
• Colby Howard - Starts 38th and has as much as +15 position difference upside. I'd like him even better if he was a little cheaper.
• Ryan Vargas - Starts 35th and has +10 position difference upside. Not quite as good a situation as Howard, but almost $2k cheaper. Vargas should be locked and loaded as an extreme salary saver play.

Just wanted to mention a few other guys:

• Bubba Wallace - He'll be in the #61 Hattori car. I think he's just to expensive for what he's likely to accomplish in that car. Barring mayhem like the Truck Series race, this is about a 12th-15th place car at best.
• Austin Cindric - Hasn't had the best of success at the big two mile tracks. And we have a lot of really strong cars starting up front, so I don't have full confidence he'll lead many laps or run a lot of fastest laps.
• Ryan Sieg - Similar profile to Brandon Brown, but I feel like this team has too many reliability issues. I just prefer Brown by a wide margin as between these two.

A lot to cover this weekend, so I'm going to keep the Trucks analysis short.

• I'll be real surprised if anyone other than J.H. Nemechek or Todd Gilliland wins this race. Austin Hill is the only other guy that wouldn't shock me.
  • Nemechek has been The Man in this series all year long. He crushed the field at Richmond earlier this year -- which is probably the closest comp to WWT as far as being a very flat track. He also has experience here from several very good runs with his dad's equipment from a few years ago. Most likely dominator and race winner.
  • Gilliland has always run well here and was dominating this race last year until Sheldon Creed overdrove a corner and took him out. He also ran very well here in KBM trucks in years past. Lastly, he's been on an impressive run of late leading laps and running fastest laps in a lot of races. He comes with downside risk, though, starting 3rd.
• Matt Crafton, Chandler Smith and Tyler Ankrum are all in play if you want to play it a little safer than Gilliland. All have the potential to be 5th-8th place trucks and get you some positive place differential.
• Grant Enfinger and Ty Majeski are other place differential plays. But they are on the expensive side for what they offer.
  • Majeski has Top 10 or so upside. He will be in a ThorSport truck and he's had three solid runs in this truck this season. He ran 9th here in a Niece truck so has a real good finish last year to fall back on.
  • Enfinger's upside is likely more in the 15th-18th range. He will be in the #9 truck owned by Codie Rohrbaugh. This is NOT the ThorSport truck/team he's been here with in the past. That said, he's had some decent results even in this #9 truck this year. And he's usually been very good at the shorter, flatter tracks.
• Tyler Hill, Dawson Cram and Spencer Boyd are all potential salary saver options.
  • Hill ran 21st here last year. This team hasn't been as strong this year, though, so I'm not sure he can quite repeat that performance without some chaos in front of him.
  • Cram was 23rd here last year. He's definitely faster than at least 7-8 trucks starting in front of him, so should pretty easily get +10 position difference or more unless he has major problems.
  • Boyd is just a guy who will be slow but hopefully run the whole race. He'll be faster than the J.J. Cobb's and Norm Benning's of the world and finish in front of anyone else who wrecks or drops out. Nothing fancy. Just cheap with hopefully a couple of  + position difference points.

Bets -- I feel real good about all of these, which makes me really nervous:

• Majeski -115 Purdy
• Tanner Gray -110 Purdy
• A. Hill +105 Creed
• Gilliland +110 Z. Smith
• If you agree on one of the three I mentioned winning, you can play all three of Nemechek +225, Gilliland +900 and A. Hill +900 to win and guaranty a good pay day as long as one of them comes through.