I think I might be coming at things a different way this week, particularly when it comes to Denny Hamlin. I think a lot of people will be on him with a sub-$10k salary starting from the pole after dominating this race last year. I'm lukewarm on him and might end up preferring to use safer, position difference upside guys. Let's look at some specific plays I like for cash games:

• Tyler Reddick - Have to lock him in. Tremendous upside, reasonable price, near 100% ownership. This is as close as it gets to a free square and you've got to take it.
• Matt DiBenedetto and William Byron - Two solid choices. I don't know why they are more expensive then Reddick because they don't have near his upside. They are unlikely to run more than a handful of fastest laps and are probably looking at 10th-15th as a reasonable finishing position. Matty D finished 14th here last year and Byron finished 9th. They are both off to terrible starts this season and desperately need a clean run to get things going back in the right direction.
• Austin Dillon - I'm normally not a big Austin Dillon guy, but he's real good here. He's finished in the Top 12 five consecutive races, including 8th and 7th in the last two races here. Starting 22nd, he can reasonably be expected to be +10 position difference.
• Ross Chastain and Chase Briscoe - Both are around the same price and starting spot. They should have the car to get at least +10 position difference. The question is can they execute in the early stages of their Cup careers? The problem I have is I really don't like anybody cheaper for cash games. You could use Ryan Newman or Anthony Alfredo -- but I really wouldn't feel too good about that.
• Denny Hamlin - Great price and certainly has the potential to dominate the race like he did last year. A couple of big concerns though. First, he's started from the pole the last four races here and last year was the only time it has worked out well. In the three prior pole starts, he failed to score even 44 DK points. Second, being the pole sitter now based on a computer formula of past performance metrics doesn't mean you'll have speed or the right setup for this race. Third, Logano and Harvick also start on the first two rows and will likely challenge Hamlin. Fourth, we have a competition caution at Lap 25 which will result in pit stops and a restart with a bunched up field. There's enough questions to make me lean towards playing it safer with the position difference guys.
• Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson - Love these guys. Race winning potential and position difference upside to boot. I have to lean Blaney here. In the last five races, his crew chief Todd Gordon has finished 4th, 6th, 1st, 5th and 3rd. He and Blaney combined for the 3rd place finish last year with 70 laps led and 27 fastest laps. The prior four finishes were with Joey Logano.

This is one of my favorite races of the season. The Xfinity cars at Homestead can really put on a show because you've got multiple grooves of racing and a super high line right against the wall that gets faster and faster as the run goes on. Two of the drivers in this race -- Tyler Reddick and Noah Gragson -- are really, really good at running that super high line, so it will be fun to watch them compete on Saturday and work their way forward from bad starting spots.

Here's how I see the best cash lineup breaking down:

• Start with Reddick and Gragson -- These are "no brainer" plays to me. Both guys have race winning potential and should run some fastest laps along the wall. They are also starting really far back in the field (38th for Reddick and 23rd for Gragson), so they offer huge position difference upside as well. Both should be near 100% ownership in cash games. ADDED SATURDAY MORNING - I SHOULD HAVE ADDED THAT REDDICK IS IN AN OUR MOTORSPORTS CAR, WHICH IS NOT AN ELITE TEAM. IT COULD BE A TOP 5-8 CAR, BUT AN UNLIKELY RACE WINNER. STILL PLENTY OF + POSITION DIFFERENCE AND SOME FASTEST LAPS TO HIT VALUE.
• Pick one of A.J. Allmendinger or Riley Herbst -- In Race 2 here last year, Allmendinger started 38th and finished 4th. Herbst had two Top 10 finishes here last year. Herbst is now in the #98 car, which was super fast with Chase Briscoe behind the wheel here last year. Neither is likely to lead a lot of laps or run a bunch of fastest laps. We're really looking for a Top 5-10 finish and the + position difference that comes with that with Allmendinger starting 24th and Herbst starting 29th. Allmendinger is the better driver and safer play. Herbst is a little more risky, but offers the same position difference upside for $2,300 less salary.
• Round it out from this list:
  • Jeffrey Earnhardt -- starts 36th, had experience at this track, should finish around 20th if the car has no issues
  • Ryan Vargas -- starts 35th, same team as Earnhardt with about the same expectations
  • Jade Buford -- starts 31st, been pretty impressive at road course races but this will be his first oval race
  • J.J. Yeley -- starts 39th, ran 11th in Race 1 here last year in essentially the same car, probably the best choice for the salary in this tier
  • Colby Howard -- car is the most reliable of the remaining options, should be able to gain 5 spots or so if no issues
  • Tommy Joe Martins -- a little riskier play, but has Top 20 upside - finished 20th in Race 2 here last year, but had mechanical issues in Race 1
  • David Starr, Chad Finchum, Timmy Hill -- These are the MBM cars and we never know if they might park or break down. I think Starr is going to have Whataburger sponsorship and try to run the race. He said his transmission broke last week and that ended his race. It was not a start and park. Hill is the most likely to park since he's in the #66, which almost always parked last season regardless of driver. I don't have a good read on Finchum.
  • Bayley Currey -- will be ok if the car doesn't break down
  • Dexter Bean and Stefan Parsons -- They shouldn't park, but have very limited upside of about +5 spots

SUNDAY 2PM LATE UPDATE - LIKING SUAREZ TO USE INSTEAD OF (OR WITH) TY DILLON. BOTH ARE STILL SOLID. ALSO LIKE DIBENEDETTO. SHOULD HAVE A GOOD +12-15 OR MORE POSITION DIFFERENCE. 

I think there are some obvious plays here and a few tough questions for cash games on Sunday. Let's go over them:

• Lock in Alex Bowman and Ty Dillon.
  • Bowman is a good (but not great) road course racer and has consistently performed well. In eight road course races in the Cup Series, he's finished no worse than 14th and has two Top 5 finishes. He got a flat tire and went a lap down last year at Daytona, but raced his way back to finish 12th. Starting 36th, his expected floor is at +15 or so position difference with an upside of +30.
  • Ty Dillon has been sneaky good at road courses. He finished 20th at Daytona and 23rd at Charlotte last year. He also had a 15th place finish at Charlotte in 2019. Considering he's not been in top level cars, that's really good. He probably takes a small step down in equipment this season, but still should be a Top 25 car. From his starting spot of 38th with a $5,600 salary, that works just fine. I would not go cheaper than this in cash games.
• Decide among the four $10k+ options of Martin Truex, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney and AJ Allmendinger.
  • Truex has great speed at the road courses and may be the best driver here. But he's been making mistakes that cost him shots at the win. There have been pit road penalties and then he just lost it in the Clash a few weeks ago. He clearly had the best car that night. Starting 19th with race winning upside.
  • Elliott will probably lead all or most of Stage 1. At that point, pit strategy comes into play and we'll have to see how things shake out. He's a great road course racer and has executed to perfection at the road course races -- winning four in a row. With so many other drivers having huge position difference upside, I'm leaning toward fading Elliott in cash games since he would have to be perfect and dominate the race to offset the position difference points the other guys in this tier are going to earn. Can he do it? Definitely. But that's the only way he works over the rest of these guys.
  • Blaney starts 27th and has +20 position difference upside. He's finished in the Top 8 in five of the last six road course races. He finished 31st at Daytona last year, but was heading for another Top 10 finish until he missed the front chicane in the closing laps and fell to the back of the lead lap.
  • Allmendinger is a road course guy and starts 34th. He's got +30 position difference upside. He's not running the full season in the Cup Series, though, so it's win or go home for him. He won't be holding anything back or playing anything on the safe side.
• Fill in with mid-tier options like Eric Jones, Chris Buescher and Ryan Newman.
  • Jones starts 37th. With Joe Gibbs Racing, he was often a Top 10 car at the road courses, including finishes of 11th at Daytona and 3rd at Charlotte last year. He takes a step down to Richard Petty's team this season, but he should still be able to crack the Top 20.
  • Buescher has been remarkably steady at road courses. He was teammates for several years with A.J. Allmendinger and I think that really improved his road course skills. He's finished 20th or better in each of the last ten road course races.
  • Newman isn't a great road course racer, but he should keep the car on the track and move up some from his 33rd starting spot. He finished 19th at Daytona last year. While I wouldn't count on a Top 20 repeat, he should be able to pick up 8-10 position difference points. 

Well it was quite the Friday Night Trucks Series race. The race itself was, of course, ridiculous with the number of cautions and general stupid stuff we've come to expect in truck races. But, I talked about the chaos I expected here and played lineups accordingly. It resulted in my first solo GPP takedown and a $20,000 win on $130 worth of entries in the $100K Piston. It's still hard to believe.
​

I'm pretty set on this Xfinity strategy for cash games--

• Lock in Austin Cindric. He should lead laps early and often and is a near lock for a Top 3 finish.
• Lock in Ty Gibbs. He's just way too cheap. You know he's going to have the best road racing car that Joe Gibbs has ever built. He finished 2nd in the ARCA race at the Daytona road course last year and he also has ARCA experience at Watkins Glen. It's not the safest of plays, but it's so cheap that it makes sense because of what it opens up for the rest of the roster. And you know they wouldn't be sending him out there for his Xfinity Series debut unless he's as well prepared as possible.
• Pick a couple of guys from the big teams starting in the back. Noah Gragson, Brandon Jones, Justin Allgaier, Justin Haley and Michael Annet all offer low floors with good upside. I listed them in the order I like them if salary is no issue.
• Take a road course guy from the group of Alex Labbe, Andy Lally and Jade Buford. All have Xfinity Series road course experience and are accomplished road course drivers. Labbe and Lally are equal and on top for me. Buford is a notch below, but also cheaper.
• Fill it out with Cody Ware or Stephen Leicht. If needed, you can use both if you prefer to not use Ty Gibbs because of his inexperience and more risky starting spot.
  • Leicht runs the road course races for MBM and finished in the low 20s in each of the four road course races last year -- 21st, 22nd, 21st (Daytona) and 24th. The 24th place finish was in the monsoon at Charlotte so can be discounted a bit. He's a veteran driver and there's no reason to think he won't repeat something like this. That said, MBM is prone to mechanical issues and it's always a risk using them when there is no practice to work out any gremlins.
  • Ware has road course experience in the Xfinity Series and actually finished 7th after starting 38th in the Charlotte race last year. That was quite a feat given the extreme wet weather conditions in that race. He also ran in the 24 Hours at Daytona a few weeks ago, so has logged countless hours of simulation and on track time in the last few months. He's a little expensive, but still fairly priced given starting spot and upside.

Odds I found interesting:

• Myatt Snider +8000 to win. This is just too high and has to be based off his performance last least in the #93 RSS car. Snider has taken a big step up in ride quality this year and has a good deal of road course experience. I'm not predicting he'll win and he's still a long shot. But you can put down $10 and win $800 if he were to somehow pull it off. Too much.

FRIDAY 1:15 PM EASTERN TIME -- ADDING A FEW NOTES IN BOLD BELOW

I am very nervous about this race -- and particularly the first lap -- for two reasons. First, we have a very jumbled up field because the starting order was essentially set by the Daytona superspeedway result. So we've got some very weak trucks and drivers starting near the front and some very strong trucks and drivers starting in the middle and back of the field. Second, we've got a lot of newcomers who are racing for the first time in the Trucks Series and/or for the first time at the Daytona road course. Add this to there being no practice or qualifying and it's very concerning. In short, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a pile up in the very first turn.

We've also got rain to contend with today making the chance for chaos even higher. And if the grass is wet and muddy, going off course at the wrong spot could be a killer.

Top Driver Targets

• Sheldon Creed - Creed is really the only guy starting in the Top 20 who I am interested in for cash games. He dominated most of the race here last year and was very impressive. What was most impressive was Creed's ability to pass other trucks on track rather than through pit timing. Several times, he restarted several rows back and quickly raced his way to the front by passing other quality trucks. He was the best in the field at backing up a corner and getting a great drive off to complete passes. That's also how he held off Brett Moffitt following the late race restart. He is easily the safest bet for a Top 3 finish.
  The real question with Creed is whether he can score enough to make it worth the salary and the risk of taking someone starting so high. With only 44 laps in the race, he would have to completely dominate from beginning to end to reach even 15 dominator points for laps led and fastest laps. And he only has +4 position difference points available. So he really only pays off the salary if he wins and dominates at least half the race. There's no doubt he can do it, but it's also concerning to roster a guy that must hit near his ceiling performance to pay off the salary.
• Stewart Friesen - Friesen has a solid record at road courses, finishing 7th, 7th and 10th in his three races. He ran into some electrical/battery issues at Daytona last year or probably would have finished better than 10th in that race. Reasonably safe bet for a Top 10 finish.
• Timmy Hill - I am confident anytime I use Timmy Hill in a Truck Series race because I know he won't screw up and he will take care of the truck. Starting 34th, he has +15 position difference upside for a near minimum salary. He's easily the safest cheap option.
• Sam Mayer - Sam starts 36th in the #75 truck. He had a lot of success last season part-time in a GMS truck, so this is a downgrade in equipment. But I like that he's got experience in the Trucks Series and at road courses. Parker Klingerman drove this truck at Daytona last year and it had good speed. I could see Sam pushing for a Top 15 finish and that would be +20 position difference.
• Tyler Ankrum - He's run 9th and 6th in his two Truck Series road course races. What I liked from last year's Daytona race is you never heard anything about him. He simply ran a solid race in the Top 10 most of the day. This is a top GMS truck, so he should finish in the Top 10 once again. A little bit more expensive, but also probably a little bit safer than Friesen and Mayer.
• Derek Kraus, Tanner Gray and Kaz Grala - These guys are all really close in salary and I can see reasons for and against all three. Kraus and Gray should have a little better equipment, but Grala is probably the most reliable driver in this group. I don't think you can go wrong with any of them. Kraus had a terrible Daytona race last year, but had some moderate road course success coming up the ranks. Gray did OK here last year and is in a solid truck. You'd hope for a Top 15 finish. Grala has experience in trucks and at this track, so offers a solid profile.

A few other notes on guys of interest:

• Brett Moffitt - Was very good here last year, but has moved from a top team (GMS) to a middle tier team (Niece). I don't think he'll compete for the win and something around 5th is probably a best case scenario. Safe, but probably too expensive for what he offers in a Niece truck.
• Camden Murphy - Cheap and starts way back. I'd prefer to not rely on a NEMCO truck and Timmy Hill is only $100 more with a much safer profile.
• Todd Gilliland - Was running in the Top 5 or so here last year before having electrical/battery issues. He does have some decent road course history, but this truck hasn't been the most reliable piece. Too expensive and risky for cash games when Ankrum, Friesen and Mayer are all options at about the same price.
• Parker Chase and Raphael Lessard - Trucks should be strong. But too risky for cash games.
• Jett Noland - I don't see it. Niece trucks are not great. He's really young and has no truck experience whatsoever. That crosses him off my list since there's no practice. He's touted as a Rookie of the Year in the Trans Am Series last year, but when you look at the stats, it seems like he's the only rookie that ran all the races. It wasn't like he was out there winning races. He just had more chances to accumulate points. His division in the Trans Am Series was dominated by Mike Skeen -- who ran 23rd in a NEMCO truck at the Daytona road course race last year. That seems like a ceiling for Noland here. It could work, but other guys with similar salaries and starting spots are better cash game plays.
• Lawless Alan - Like Noland, he has no Truck Series experience. Reaume trucks are among the worst in the series. Just use Timmy Hill if you need to save salary.

A couple of bets that I think have some value --

• Matt Crafton -115 over Zane Smith
• Stewart Friesen +105 over Johnny Sauter
• Sheldon Creed +400 to win the race is fine. I think it'll come down to him or John Hunter Nemechek.

It's a short article here because the cash game strategy is pretty obvious this week. We always want to be conservative with guys starting from 25th on back at the plate tracks. And we've got some really good drivers with strong teams starting back there. So there will be a lot of duplicate, "chalky" lineups focused on these guys.

• Denny Hamlin - The best plate track driver starts 25th. He's won the last two Daytona 500 races and finished 1st, 4th, 3rd and 1st in the four plate track races last year. Denny is very smart in his approach and will back out of things when it gets too aggressive for his liking. That's exactly what we want for cash games. It's rare that Denny starts far enough back at a plate track to make him a cash game target, so we'll take advantage of that here.
• Austin Cindric and Kaz Grala - Drivers with experience at plate tracks (mostly in Xfinity) on competent teams starting in the last two spots. High floor and incredibly high ceilings. Should be near 100% ownership in cash games.
• Eric Jones - Both Jones and his new #43 team have had decent success at the plate tracks. Jones won the Fall Daytona race in 2018 and had two Top 5 finishes at the plate tracks last year. Starts 31st, so offers a solid floor and upside.
• Ross Chastain - Starts 34th in the #42 for Chip Ganassi Racing. Ross can be overly aggressive at times, which makes me nervous. But he's also done very well at plate tracks in the Xfinity Series. Worth the risk starting 34th.
• Martin Truex and Cole Custer - Starting 26th and 27th. Neither has a real good plate track record, but both will be in strong cars and will finish really well if they can avoid the wrecks.
• Anthony Alfredo - Starts 36th and I really like this for cash games. He's with Front Row Motorsports and they have the approach to plate track races that we want. Last year, this team only ran about 30% of the laps in the Top 15 at these tracks. That tells us they should be pretty conservative giving them the best chance to be around at the end of the race. It always makes me nervous to use a rookie, but I will strongly consider Alfredo in this spot.

Unfortunately, I can't be as helpful as normal for Trucks & Xfinity this week. With same day qualifying, I just can't be all that specific about which drivers to target based on starting position. The general approach for cash games (50/50s) will be the same as the past. We're looking for drivers starting from at least 25th on back who have the most reliable equipment and experience at the plate tracks (Daytona and Talladega).

Trucks
There are 46 trucks on the entry list for at most 36 spots in the race. Obvious point, but make absolutely certain you're starting people who are in the race.

The truck races at plate tracks are usually very crazy, so I look for guys who are likely to be conservative and just ride around the back until the end of the race. For cash games, it's all about your trucks still running at the end of the race.

Here are some likely targets based on who I'd expect to be starting toward the back:

• Young's Motorsports -- Tate Fogleman and Spencer Boyd. Both have experience and should be conservative and ride in the back to avoid wrecks. Boyd had two Top 5 finishes at plate tracks in 2019. Kris Wright is also on this team, but he has only one Truck race ever and has no plate track experience, so is a likely avoid for me.
• Jordan Anderson -- Might be more aggressive than I'd really like, but should be starting near the back. He finished 2nd and 6th in the two plate track races in 2020 and has Top 10 finishes in four of the last six plate track races.
• Codie Rohrbaugh and Clay Greenfield -- Both veterans that should play it safe.
• Parker Klingerman -- Could be more aggressive than I want, but also will probably start far enough back to be an option. He hasn't done any plate track races in the Truck Series the last two seasons.
• Reaume -- I suspect these trucks miss the field because they'll be slow in qualifying, but if a Reaume truck makes the race, it will definitely ride around the back to avoid wrecks. Iwuji would still make me nervous. White is OK.
• Norm Benning and J.J. Cobb -- Same as Reaume. Likely to miss on speed, but will definitely ride in the back if they make the race.

Trucks Update after Thursday Practice--

• Adding Niece as a target. They should work together during the race. Looking back at last year's plate track races, this team tended to be more conservative which we want for cash games.
• The Young trucks all seemed to have some mechanical issues. Hopefully the shakedown allowed them to identify the problem and get it out of the way. But a little bit concerned. Same with Clay Greenfield.​

Xfinity
Much the same story with 45 entries for a 36 car field. Again, double check everyone you use makes the race.

• The Kaulig cars have dominated plate track races of late. Even still, they are likely to qualify too high to make it worth the risk in cash games.
• JD Motorsports and B.J. McLeod Motorsports are two teams to target. They almost always ride around the back together until late in the race. Jeffrey Earnhardt, Landon Cassill, Matt Mills and Jesse Little would be my top targets in that group since they have the most experience. I won't avoid the others, but they're secondary options to use only if they are starting quite a bit further back.
• Gray Gaulding in the #52 if he makes the back end of the field is good. He'll ride around in the back and I trust him not to mess up. I don't fully trust the car though.
• The Mike Harmon cars (Kyle Weatherman and Bayley Currey) should ride in the back.
• I also think the four DGM cars could be conservative and ride in the back for a while. Alex Labbe and Josh Williams would be the top targets there. I wouldn't use Mario Gosselin though since his last NASCAR race was four years ago.

The 2021 season is almost here and Daytona contests are posted on Draft Kings. I can't wait to get going.

I don't plan on posting anything for what I consider the pre-season races. My season will begin in earnest on the 12th as we start with Trucks, Xfinity and then the Daytona 500. See you then!