SUNDAY UPDATE:  TRUEX AND JOHNSON FAIL INSPECTION SO GET OFFICIAL STARTING SPOT IN THE REAR.  SQUARELY ON THE CASH GAME BOARD NOW.  KESELOWSKI DROPS TO REAR FOR UNAPPROVED ADJUSTMENTS.  KEEPS TOP 10 OFFICIAL STARTING SPOT, SO OFF THE CASH GAME BOARD.

SATURDAY NIGHT UPDATE:  Here's my cash game lineup construction thoughts as of now.  Remember, there will be tech inspection on Sunday morning and anyone who fails will have their Q time disallowed and get an official starting spot at the rear of the field.  That could change things dramatically and give us new guys that are essential plays.  So stay current on Sunday morning.  If there is something significant, I'll update if I can, but no guarantee.

• I'm locking in 3 guys for sure -- Kyle Busch, AJ Allmendinger and Paul Menard.  Kyle is on pole, his practice speed numbers look great and he actually sounded really happy with his car, which is rare.  I'm expecting a big chunk of laps led/fastest laps and a Top 5 finish.  AJ is really strong here and starts 17th, which is pretty good for us.  He was in the middle of his first Q run when Bubba spun and brought out the red flag in Round One.  That forced AJ to make a second Q run in Round One and left him with more worn tires than the rest of the field in Round Two.  He likely would have qualified much better without that incident.  He's finished Top 10 4 of the last 5 here and that's a reasonable expectation for tomorrow.  At his salary, he's a must play in my book.  Menard will start 39th after they had an engine ignition problem in qualifying.  The team replaced the engine and he'll start from the rear tomorrow -- which doesn't really matter since he's credited with starting 39th anyway.  He's finished in the Top 20 here 4 of the last 5 races and I'd hope for a 18th-23rd place finish here tomorrow.
• The rest of the lineup can go a bunch of different ways.  I suspect Chase Elliott (21st) and Eric Jones (24th) will be pretty heavily owned.  I don't have a clear answer for where to go with them because there's a lot of conflicting signals.  Chase is on a roll overall right now, but he didn't really show top end speed in practice.  He was 19th in 10-lap average in final practice.  But, he led 123 laps here last Fall and should have won the race (Hamlin wrecked him).  Give him that finish and he's run off 3 straight Top 10s here.  On the flip side, Jones was 10th in 10-lap average and 3rd in overall average in final practice.  But, in 3 Cup races here, he's finished no better than 12th.  Forced to pick between them, I'll take Chase.  But I don't think either is a must have.
• I think you'll want one other Top 10 starter who has a chance to lead laps.  I think Bowyer and Keselowski are the best bets there.  Bowyer won here in Spring while leading 215 laps.  He's had 3 Top 7 finishes here in his 3 races since joining SHR.  I think he'll grab some laps led and fastest laps points and absent a wreck or mechanical issue, I can't imagine anything other than a Top 10 finish.  Keselowski has finished in the Top 10 here in 6 of the last 7 races.  He led only 1 lap here in Spring, but in the 2 races before that he led over 100 laps in each of them.
• One other mid-priced option to note is Austin Dillon.  He starts 28th.  He's had a number of Top 18 runs (including 2 Top 10 runs) from a similar starting spot in the last 6 races here.  Not a must play by any means but I wanted to give another playable option at a mid-tier salary. 
• If you want/need to go super cheap in your last spot, I'd take a flyer on Cole Whitt.  In his last 3 races here in the #72 car, he's finished 27th (+8 positions), 25th (+5 positions) and 21st (+10 positions).  If the car holds together, hopefully he can make another run in the mid-20s with +4-7 positions.       

Real happy with the guys I talked about last week.  While Paul Menard didn't finish well because of damage sustained in a random pit road incident, he was running in the Top 10 and had legitimate speed just as I thought.  Overall a very solid and profitable week.

For Martinsville, all the way up to 500 laps so finding those Dominators is key.  BEWARE that post-qualifying technical inspection will be on Sunday morning.  If a car fails, its qualifying time will be disallowed and its official starting spot will move to the back of the field.  In the past, we've seen a few cars fail tech and, if the same happens on Sunday, it could open last minute value plays who will gain a lot of position difference upside.  So be sure to stay with it on Sunday morning before the race begins.

Here are the guys I'm focused on heading into the weekend.

• Kyle Busch -- Has been The Man here lately.  Has finished 1st twice and 2nd twice in the last 5 races here.  He's finished in the Top 5 the last 6 races here.  And in that span, he's had races where he's led 352, 274 and 184 laps.  He is the most likely Dominator and comes at a $600 discount off Harvick (who hasn't led a single lap here in the last 4 races).
• Brad Keselowski --  Has a win and 5 Top 5 finishes in the last 7 races here.  He's also led 100+ laps in 2 of the last 3 races here.
• Clint Bowyer -- Won the Spring race after starting 9th and leading 215 laps.  Has been really strong at the shorter flat tracks throughout his career and particularly since joining SHR.  In 3 races here with SHR, he's finished 7th, 3rd and 1st.
• Chase Elliott -- Looking really strong right now.  Last Fall, he should have won this race but was taken out by Denny Hamlin.  In that race, Elliott led 123 laps and was leading late in the race.  If you give him credit for that run, he's stacked together 3 straight solid races here.
• Ryan Blaney -- Started 5th, led 145 laps, and finished 3rd here in the Spring.  
• Denny Hamlin -- Led 111 laps here in the Spring and this is the type of track where he generally does well.  But his struggles this year are well documented.  This is probably his last real chance to pull off a victory this year, so I do look for a strong run.  And he's a good value at $8,500.
• Aric Almirola -- Been steady here in recent years with typical mid-teen finishes.  Clearly in the strongest car he's ever been in and he's got all the incentive to get after it this weekend as he shoots for a chance at the Final 4.  Under priced at $8,300. 
• Jimmie Johnson -- This used to be his personal playground, but not so much in recent years.  That said, he won here as recently as Fall 2016 and he's finished in the Top 15 in the last 6 races here.  Likely the last chance for he and Chad Knaus to score a victory in their final season together.
• AJ Allmendinger -- Crazily under priced at $6,200 since this is one of his best tracks outside the road courses.  In the last 5 races here, he has 4 Top 10 finishes.  A near lock for the salary and scoring potential.
• Alex Bowman -- Very small sample size, but he started 16th and finished 7th here in the Spring.  A definite tournament option at a reasonable $7,900 salary.

We'll have more late Saturday night after practice and qualifying.

Straight to the point here.  I'm going to break down what I see as the critical lineup choices for Sunday's race.

• Harvick, Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson and Martin Truex -- They all have awesome potential and I'm thinking you'll want 2 of them since they are the most likely Dominators.  Based on practice and reports of what people in the garage are thinking, Harvick is the top choice.  He showed great long run speed.  He won here in Spring and has won 2 of the last 5 races here.  My second choice would be Larson.  He officially starts 27th, but will go to the rear before the green flag.  He started from the rear in Spring and led 101 laps before finishing 4th.  It's a stretch to expect that again, but no stretch to think Top 10 finish with numerous fastest laps and a potential for laps led.
• Mid-level guys I like are Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, Ryan Blaney and Paul Menard.  Logano starts from pole and should lead a chunk of laps at the beginning of the race.  He also showed strong long run speed in final practice, so he should be able a hold a Top 5 or so finishing position.  I also really like Menard in this group.   He finished 6th here in the Spring and has been consistent at the 1.5 mile tracks this year.  In tournaments, I do like Ryan Blaney quite a bit.  He ran well here in Spring, but had an incident with Larson and finished poorly.   He's run OK at the 1.5 mile tracks this year, but hasn't led a whole bunch of laps at those tracks or been consistent enough to make me stretch for that salary.  Kurt is solid as well, but he's just out of salary reach the way I am ending up with my lineup. 
• My favorite budget picks are David Ragan, Michael McDowell and Corey LaJoie.  Earlier this week, we documented the success of the Front Row team and Ragan, in particulaer, at Kansas.  To recap, he's finished 17th, 17th and 13th in the last three races here.  And in the last 3 races here, the 2 Front Row drivers have finished no worse than 23rd.  As for LaJoie, he's finished 27th, 27th and 24th in the last 3 races here with a collective +21 position difference.  I would also like Ross Chastain if you have the salary, but I'm not finding that I do and he's not strong enough in my mind over LaJoie to bump someone else in order to make it work.
• Keselowski, Blaney and Almirola all make strong large field tournament plays.  Any one of them could dominate but come with significant downside given their high starting spots.

Was happy to hit another good week at Talladega.  I'm not a big fan of the plate tracks in general, but we had success at 3 of the 4 races on the plate tracks this season.  Back to a 1.5 mile track at Kansas this weekend.  We'll be back to searching for the Dominators with laps led and fastest laps points playing a key role.  Here are the guys I'm focused on:

• Kevin Harvick -- Won from pole with 79 laps led in the Spring.  He's finished in the Top 3 in 4 of the last 5 races here and has a low finish of 8th in the last 5 races here.  As safe a pick as you can find here.
• Martin Truex -- In the last 3 races here, he's finished 1st, 1st and 2nd.  He's also been a Dominator in 3 of the last 5 races here leading 172, 104 and 91 laps, respectively.  At $10,800 on DK, he comes at a significant discount off Harvick and Kyle Busch while possibly being the best choice among the three.  Likely a lock in my lineup.
• Ryan Blaney -- Has Top 5 finishes in 3 of the last 5 here.  Started 2nd and led 54 laps in the Spring, but later wrecked and finished 37th.  At $8,700 DK, he's looking under priced.
• Joey Logano -- Very under priced at $8,500 DK.  Has had some bad Kansas finishes, but also finished 3rd here in the Spring and in Fall 2016.
• Aric Almirola -- Under priced at $8,100 DK.  Has back-to-back 9th place finishes here.
• Paul Menard -- Started 11th and finished 6th here in the Spring.  A possible value play at $7,200 DK.
• Austin Dillon -- Another possible value play at $6,800 DK.  He has 5 straight finishes inside the Top 17 at this track.
• David Ragan and Michael McDowell -- Both of these guys have finished in the Top 20 in each of the last 3 races here.  McDowell has finished 13th, 18th and 20th while Ragan has finished 17th, 17th and 13th.  At $5,700 DK and $5,600 DK, respectively, they offer strong salary saving options.  Front Row Motorsports has been really solid at this track.
• Kyle Busch -- Has finished 10th in the last 2 races here.  He led 112 laps in the Fall race last year before finishing 10th.  Has been solid here recently, but would need to show real well in practice to justify the salary.
• Kyle Larson -- Odd to me that he is priced over Truex on DK.  He did lead 101 laps here in the Spring.  In that race, he started 22nd and finished 4th.  But that is by far his best Kansas race ever.  In 3 of the last 5 races here, he has finished 30th or worse.  Likely a tournament only option since his performance here has been way too hit or miss for a cash game choice.

Look for our late, late Saturday night update with our final notes and driver targets for Sunday's race!

There are some clear building blocks for our Talladega lineups this weekend.  Let's dive right into the final race analysis:

• Only 188 laps in play and the nature of plate track racing really tends to jumble up the laps led and fastest lap bonus points, so we're not really focused on those this week.
• The key to winning the plate tracks is using guys starting in the back half of the field on reliable teams.  That gives us the best chance of having a strong car, avoiding mechanical or other unforced errors and scoring position difference points.
• Kyle Larson (starting 34th) should be 100% owned in cash games.  In fact, unless you are doing several different tournament lineups, he is a near must own in all formats.
• Brad Keselowski (starting 18th) and Joey Logano (starting 20th) will also be very heavily owned in cash games (and all formats for that matter).  We documented their success at plate tracks and Talladega in particular earlier this week.  As a refresher, one of these guys has won 5 of the last 6 Talladega races.  BK has been a little more up and down on plate tracks, so I could see some merit in fading him.  But I'm locking in Logano for sure.
• I really like Paul Menard (starting 30th).  He finished 30th here in the Spring, but in the prior three Talladega races he finished 13th, 9th and 12th.  Likewise, he struggled last time out at Daytona -- finishing 28th -- but, in the prior three races at that plate track, he finished 5th, 3rd, and 6th.  So, he has excellent finishes in 6 of the last 8 plate track races.  And, as part of Wood Brothers, he shares all the information with Team Penske, which has won 5 of the last 6 races here with Keselowski and Logano. 
• I like Jamie McMurray (starting 31st) as well.  He has a decent history at plate tracks and offers tremendous upside with likely high ownership.  I will fade him in some tournament lineups because he sometimes gets in trouble at the plate tracks from being overaggressive.  But I think he's a cash game staple.
• Ty Dillon (starting 29th) is also on my radar.  We noted him earlier this week because, in his three Talladega races, he's finished 13th, 11th and 15th with a minimum position difference of +14.
• Other guys I have my eye on are Chris Buescher, Matt DeBennedetto, Ross Chastain and Landon Cassill.

Restrictor plate racing at Talladega this weekend.  Quick recap on my general approach to the plate track races -- I tend to play less overall and focus more on tournaments and less on cash games.  The randomness of the wrecks, etc. just takes so many things out of our control that it is really a free for all in these races.  Also, track history matters the least at these tracks so it's hard to do much useful preparation during the week since starting position is so critical.  The fact that we can't outwork our competition with pre-race research and preparation takes away a critical advantage that we have over the field most weeks.  It's the most important reason why I don't play as much on plate track weekends.

That said, here are some guys that I would be most interested in if their starting spots make sense:

• Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski -- Between them they've won 5 of the last 6 Talladega races.  Logano has 3 wins and BK has 2.  But, again, to show the randomness, Logano has also wrecked and finished 25th and 32nd in 2 of the last 5 races here.  Likewise, BK wrecked in one race and lost an engine in another to suffer finishes of 33rd and 38th in 2 of the last 5 races here.
• Kurt Busch -- Probably the closest thing to a consistent top finisher here of late.  He's finished in the Top 8 in 4 of the last 5 races and has Top 10 finishes in 6 of the last 8.
• Aric Almirola -- Also approaching consistent status with 4 straight Top 8 finishes here.
• Paul Menard -- Top 13 finishes in 7 of the last 10 Talladega races.
• David Ragan -- Won here in 2013.  In the last 3 races here, he's finished 10th, 10th and 6th with a collective +48 position difference.
• Ty Dillon -- In the last 3 races here, he's finished 13th, 11th and 15th with a collective +43 position difference.
• Rickey Stenhouse -- An interesting scenario this weekend.  He's the only non-Penske driver to win in the last 6 races here.  He's been pretty strong at plate tracks and has finished in the Top 5 in 3 of the last 4 races here.  But, he also wrecked about half the field in the last plate track race at Daytona in July.  So I'm concerned about him being less aggressive to avoid a repeat of that disaster and/or others being more aggressive with him remembering what he did in July.  I am thinking of him as the ultimate boom or bust kind of play, so I prefer him as a tournament only play.  But, if he doesn't qualify well, he could enter the cash game picture.
• On the flip side, Eric Jones has run into awful luck here.  In 3 Cup Series races here, he's finished 33rd, 36th and 39th.
  
• Likewise, Martin Truex has really struggled here of late.  In the last 4 races here, he's finished 40th, 35th, 23rd and 26th.  

SUNDAY UPDATE:  Hi all.  I'm very sorry but am unable to post any further update this weekend.  I just haven't had the time to prepare like I normally do this weekend and I'd rather be silent then steer anyone the wrong way.  I'll be back in full next week!

The season is starting to wind down, so we want to finish strong.  Dover this weekend which means we've got 400 laps and need to find those Dominators again with 200 points available for fastest laps and another 100 for laps led.  Here are some notes and driver targets to focus on as the race weekend unfolds:

• In the last two Spring races at Dover, we've had one Dominator who really pulled away from everyone else.  This Spring, it was Kevin Harvick who led 201 laps and had 113 fastest laps.  He scored 106.75 extra DK points from that, with the next closest driver (Brad Keselowski) scoring 41 extra DK points with 108 laps led and 28 fastest laps.  In Spring 2017, it was Kyle Larson who led 241 laps and had 78 fastest laps.  He scored 99.25 extra DK points from that, with the next closest driver (Martin Truex) scoring 51.5 extra DK points with 102 laps led and 52 fastest laps.
• However, the last two Fall races have featured two or even three Dominators finishing with a relatively similar number of extra DK points.  In Fall 2017, Chase Elliott led 138 laps with 47 fastest laps and Kyle Larson had an almost identical 137 laps led with 48 fastest laps.  They scored 58 and 58.25 extra DK points, respectively.  Martin Truex came next with 31.75 extra DK points based on 51 laps led and 38 fastest laps.  In Fall 2016, Martin Truex led 187 laps with 82 fastest laps for 87.75 extra DK points.  Jimmie Johnson led 90 laps with 83 fastest laps for 64 extra DK points.  And Kyle Busch led 102 laps with 47 fastest laps for 49 extra DK points.
• So, we're going to be looking to have at least two Dominator candidates in our starting lineup this week.  As for who those guys might be, here you go:
• Martin Truex has finished in the Top 4 in the last 4 races here and he's been in the Dominator picture in three of those four races.  At $11,500, he's very expensive, but he is the cheapest of the Big Three.
• Chase Elliott has finished in the Top 5 here in 4 of his 5 Cup series races.  As we noted above, he was one of the Dominators in this race last Fall.
• Daniel Suarez has 3 Cup Series races at Dover and he's finished 6th, 8th and 3rd in those three races.
• Kyle Larson has two 2nd place finishes here in the last five races and he's been in the Dominator picture in 3 of the last 5 races here.  At $10,200, he's priced well below the Big Three even though he has the potential to outscore each of them.
• Jimmie Johnson has four straight Top 10 finishes here.  He doesn't dominate here like he did in his prime, but it is still his best track.  
• Brad Keselowski led 108 laps here in the Spring and has 4 Top 10 finishes in the last 5 races here.
• Clint Bowyer went from 12th to 2nd with 40 laps led here in the Spring.  Last Fall, he started 19th and finished 6th.  
• Kevin Harvick started 2nd, led 201 laps and won the Spring race here earlier this year.  He's had an inconsistent record here over the years but he was the class of the field in Spring.

We'll have more after cars hit the track Friday and leading into Sunday's race.