I started this blog to provide a casual, recreational level of fantasy NASCAR advice and discussion. I've been playing these contests for a number of years and am annoyed by lineup sellers and groups of players using the same lineup. I'm hoping to give the casual player some help in building solid lineups that can beat that annoying crowd most of the time. I'm not a "tout" and don't do this for a living, so proceed accordingly. I hope you enjoy the discussion here and Good Luck!
I put a few notes for Sunday's Cup Series race in the last post. But you shouldn't need much help making a cash game lineup there. So I'll spend more time on Xfinity.
Just 90 laps in this race, so somewhat limited laps led and fastest laps points. In choosing our top dollar plays, we probably want to have some built in position difference to go with laps led/fastest laps upside.
For some reason, Draft Kings released salaries for Race 2 earlier this week so we now have a situation where the cash game plays are obvious and we'll have many duplicate, chalky lineups. At most, we've only got about 10 smart cash game plays that most people should be on to. At the very least, we'll have overlap of at least 4-5 drivers on almost every roster.
On these weeks, I limit my cash game exposure, play some tournaments with a few less popular drivers and keep more money for a better slate where we have an edge.
Obvious big position difference plays--
Obvious potential lap leaders who also have position difference upside--
Going quick and to the point this weekend--
Short articles with all the things to cover this weekend--
Man, based on Saturday's practice, the Chevys seem unbeatable here. The Top 7 cars on the practice speed chart were Chevys. 8 of the Top 10 were Chevys. And it's not just the Hendrick four. Both Ganassi cars -- Kurt Busch and Ross Chastain -- were in the Top 7. Rickey Stenhouse and Tyler Reddick were 4th and 5th, respectively. So all of the major Chevy teams had at least one driver in the Top 6 on the practice speed chart. That's crazy. I'll stop short of suggesting to go all in on the Chevys, but if you're making a close call between drivers, I'd lean the Chevy way here.
On the flip side, the Toyotas were way off and seemed worried based on comments from Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex. Hamlin was the only 1 of 2 Toyotas in the Top 20 in practice speeds. Most of the 8th-20th positions were Fords.
I wish I could give you guys more, but it's so hard to get into a lineup strategy or even get too deep into driver targets without knowing starting positions. It has seemed tough to pass here throughout the weekend, so it might be a week to put a little less focus on position difference upside and focus more on who you think can get really good finishes while gaining at least a few spots.
A solid winning night with the Trucks both in DFS and 4 for 4 winners on the H2H bets I posted. On the Xfinity side, it all starts with Kyle Busch. In practice Friday, he was over .2 seconds per lap faster than the next car and showed he's going to have the car to beat on Saturday. Harrison Burton was able to keep pretty close to him on a longer run near the end of practice, but Burton also had 15 lap newer tires. Burton looks like he'll have a Top 5 car, but Kyle is still the man to beat.
So what to do after starting off with KB--
Bets -- Don't love a whole lot here. Here is one I'm thinking about, but have not yet played. Going to recheck lines in the morning:
Practice, qualifying and the race all on Friday. I'll go through some notes and things I see here, but you'll have to monitor what happens Friday before finalizing your lineup. I will update at some point Friday if I can.
I talk about it more in Trucks below, but track conditions are going to be real tough with the heat and traction compound. So we want to anchor the lineup with by far the best driver in the field -- Kyle Busch. From there, we can look at these options--
I think there's a decent chance this race turns into a caution filled wreck fest. First, NASCAR scheduled a race to start at noon in Texas in the middle of June. It's supposed to by sunny with the temperature starting at 90 and going up from there. It's going to be unbearably hot which is going to make the track slick as hell. Second, we've got the goofy traction compound in the outside groove and, as we saw in the first Charlotte practice a few weeks ago, that stuff is like ice when it's not worn in. With no practice or anything before this race, the traction compound is probably going to be a "no go" area for most drivers. Third, we've got the least talented of the fields with a lot of aggressive drivers. It's all a recipe for a likely disaster.
As far as DFS is concerned, I see this as a stars and scrubs race. We've got four really great plays up top, not a whole lot in the middle to be excited about and then some rides we can tolerate at the lowest end of the salary scale.
The reason I'm taking this approach is the guys in the mid-range just don't do it for me. Brennan Poole is an option, but this is his first race of the year -- which worries me with no practice. He also tends to be pretty aggressive which could go wrong in a hurry at Texas. A guy like Josh Berry is just too expensive for the truck he is in. This is 15th-20th place equipment at best.
Crafton -120 Dollar
Nemechek -125 Elliott
C. Smith -105 Dollar
Quick flashback to last week. I got my second tournament takedown at a road course this season, winning $1,500 in the single entry $24 Rainbow contest. I also won $20,000 in the big GPP for the Truck race at the Daytona road course in February. Not sure if I'm onto a winning strategy at road courses or if it's coincidental. The winning lineup this time was Kyle Larson, Martin Truex, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Ryan Preece and Scott Heckert. You'll notice five of those guys were in my free preview article last weekend. Also nailed +145 and +275 bets last Sunday. It was a very profitable day.
I'm not resting on last week though. Here's a few quick mid-week plays where the odds will probably get worse as Sunday nears, so I've locked them in now. The Chevys have been so strong at the low horsepower tracks and there's been public speculation that Hendrick and RCR have found a way to get some extra HP out of those engines, which is making them so fast at these tracks. We're all the way down to 510 HP this week, so we don't know for sure if they'll still have an advantage, but I'd still say they're the clear favorites. This race is likely to be wild, so I'd shy away from the top favorites and take a chance on these longer odds plays in the Chevys--
My name is Steve and I've won thousands playing NASCAR fantasy racing games. This blog will share my advice for enjoying and winning your fantasy racing games.