I put a few notes for Sunday's Cup Series race in the last post. But you shouldn't need much help making a cash game lineup there. So I'll spend more time on Xfinity.

Just 90 laps in this race, so somewhat limited laps led and fastest laps points. In choosing our top dollar plays, we probably want to have some built in position difference to go with laps led/fastest laps upside.

• Austin Cindric - Had an absolute rocket and clearly the best car in the field last year at Pocono. The race was very disjointed with a bunch of cautions and different pit strategies, so he never really got out front for a long time before getting caught up in a wreck that ended his day. Starting 13th, I love the position difference upside and dominator potential.
• Ty Gibbs - No Xfinity experience at Pocono, but he does have ARCA experience here and he's been amazing every time he's been in this #54 car this year. Starts 14th so, like Cindric, he has position difference upside and dominator potential.
• Justin Allgaier - Had a Top 3 car here last year, but also got damage in the wreck that took out Cindric. He starts 2nd, so could lead early and get some fastest laps out in clean air. But, he starts 2nd, so doesn't have any position difference cushion.
• Josh Berry - Transitions over to the #31 car, which is not as strong as the #8 car he had for Dale Jr's team earlier this year. This is probably more of a 12th-15th place car instead of the Top 10 car he's run most of the time this season. But, he's got a super safe floor from the 33rd starting spot and can reasonably hit +20 position difference.
• Sam Mayer - Sam takes over the #8 here and starts 20th. It is his first race in the Xfinity Series. Sam is extremely talented (won a Trucks race at Bristol last year), but has somewhat limited experience on big tracks like Pocono. He has done ARCA races here though. It's just a little concern with no practice and no Xfinity seat time.
• Myatt Snider - This is a pricing error by DK. There is no way the RCR #2 car should be priced down here with Austin Hill and Alex Labbe. This is a Top 10 car and Snider did really well in last year's Pocono race. There's always risk with Myatt being too aggressive, but it's too hard to pass up this price for this good a car.
• Jeffrey Earnhardt - Great price and great floor starting 38th. He should be able to get something close to +15 position difference from here.
• Colby Howard - Pretty similar to Earnhardt. Mid-20s is a reasonable expectation for his finishing position.
• Carson Ware - I've really liked this #17 car with J.J. Yeley driving -- and even Cody Ware from time to time. This week it's younger brother Carson. He was in this car last year at Pocono and finished 20th -- although that was inflated by the multiple wrecks that took out contending cars. 25th or so is a more realistic projection. But that could be enough at this really attractive salary.
• Joey Gase - Starts dead last but in the pretty slow #52 car. Joey is a pretty good driver, though, so maybe he can hold onto the lead lap and bring it home in the Top 30. 

Bets

• Cindric -105 Allmendinger
• Cindric -105 Allgaier
• Haley -110 Berry
• Myatt Snider +8000 to win -- throw away money only, but come on at +8000

For some reason, Draft Kings released salaries for Race 2 earlier this week so we now have a situation where the cash game plays are obvious and we'll have many duplicate, chalky lineups. At most, we've only got about 10 smart cash game plays that most people should be on to. At the very least, we'll have overlap of at least 4-5 drivers on almost every roster.

On these weeks, I limit my cash game exposure, play some tournaments with a few less popular drivers and keep more money for a better slate where we have an edge.

Obvious big position difference plays--

• Ryan Newman (37th)
• Cole Custer (38th)
• Ross Chastain (33rd)
• Matt DiBenedetto (32nd)
• You could add Corey LaJoie (36th) here, but I'd probably stay away from him because I'm not sure how good or reliable a Spire backup car is going to be. Newman, Custer and Chastain are all going to back up cars as well, but they're with bigger teams who should have a backup car that is about as good as the primary car. You could still use LaJoie if you want to save some extra money here to get a more expensive stud from the next list who you feel is a must have.

Obvious potential lap leaders who also have position difference upside--

• Kyle Larson (12th)
• William Byron (18th)
• Kyle Busch (19th)
• Alex Bowman (20th)
• Denny Hamlin (17th)

Going quick and to the point this weekend--

• Chase Elliott - Great cash game play starting 29th.
• Kyle Larson - So hard to pass up Kyle right now. He's dominating every race and running a ton of fastest laps as well. There are some limitations at Pocono since there are fewer laps and various pit strategies that will put other drivers in the lead for portions of the race. 
• Ryan Blaney - Another top cash game play starting 27th.
• Ryan Preece - Going to need some cheaper plays to fit in the top guys and Preece fits the bill starting 31st for $6,200.
• Cole Custer and Ryan Briscoe - Both in the $6k-$7k range starting further back in the field. They should push for Top 20 runs.

Short articles with all the things to cover this weekend--

• Kyle Busch - Yes. It's worth it since he's got +20 position difference built in starting from 22nd. The race is only 60 laps and already has two scheduled cautions, so there won't be a lot of fastest laps and laps led points available, which limits his upside. But he doesn't care about stage points, etc. and can follow a strategy most likely to get him to the front for a race win.
• Tyler Ankrum - I've mentioned it a lot this season, but a sub-$6,500 salary for a GMS truck is just ridiculous. Ankrum isn't great, but has plenty of experience now in this truck and should be able to at least finish in the Top 15. 
• Grant Enfinger and Christian Eckes - I wanted to talk about these two together since they have shared the #98 ThorSport ride this year. That's a really good, top tier truck that should finish in the Top 10 every week.
  
  • Eckes is in that truck this week and starts 16th, so offers a good +5 position difference with more upside in there. He was going to win this race last year in the #18 KBM truck until he got a flat tire in the tunnel turn while leading pretty late in the race.
  • Enfinger is in the #9 Rhorbaugh truck this week. This is not nearly as good as the #98 and probably won't have the strength to challenge for a Top 10 at a big track like Pocono. I'd say a mid-teens finish is a best case scenario and I'm not sure that's going to cut it with such a high salary.
• J.H. Nemechek - He's simply been the best in the series this season and we've seen him go toe-to-toe with Kyle on a couple of occasions. He starts 7th and should move forward for a Top 3 finish. And I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him lead a few laps and/or run some fastest laps since he's starting much closer to the front and could get there before Kyle. The KBM trucks were really, really fast here last year, so I'd expect them to have a good set up. And Nemechek and Busch are both far better then the drivers who were in these trucks last year at this race.
• Derek Kraus - This truck has run into a host of issues this season, but the price and starting spot are hard to pass up here. There is +10 position difference upside here.
• Austin Wayne Self - He's gradually turned from an overly aggressive loose canon into a pretty reliable option. In 12 races this year, he has 9 Top 20 finishes and no finish worse than 27th. He starts 21st with a reasonable salary that can work out fine if he sneaks into a Top 20 finish.
• Spencer Boyd - With the long laps and short stages, it's pretty easy to stay on the lead lap here. I trust Spencer more than everyone else starting from 30th on back (other than Enfinger) and think he can get you +5 position difference just keeping his truck clean. With the weak back end of the field, there's no chance he loses spots unless the truck breaks down or he gets wrecked. Not a sexy pick, but can get you points and give you some salary flexibility.
• Ty Majeski - Two Top 10 runs in this truck so far this year and it's definitely Top 12 or better equipment. Not a ton of upside here, but a pretty safe and reliable piece at a very reasonable salary.

Man, based on Saturday's practice, the Chevys seem unbeatable here. The Top 7 cars on the practice speed chart were Chevys. 8 of the Top 10 were Chevys. And it's not just the Hendrick four. Both Ganassi cars -- Kurt Busch and Ross Chastain -- were in the Top 7. Rickey Stenhouse and Tyler Reddick were 4th and 5th, respectively. So all of the major Chevy teams had at least one driver in the Top 6 on the practice speed chart. That's crazy. I'll stop short of suggesting to go all in on the Chevys, but if you're making a close call between drivers, I'd lean the Chevy way here.

On the flip side, the Toyotas were way off and seemed worried based on comments from Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex. Hamlin was the only 1 of 2 Toyotas in the Top 20 in practice speeds. Most of the 8th-20th positions were Fords.

• Hard not to think Kyle Larson dominates this race at some point on Sunday. He's basically had the best car all year long and is arguably the most talented driver in the field. He's expensive, but certainly can hit value with another dominating performance.
• Kurt Busch and Ross Chastain are also targets for me. Kurt was one of three drivers to do the tire test at Nashville, which can only help. And, as I mentioned above, they were both really quick in practice.
• Suarez, Preece and LaJoie would be cheaper Chevy options that may come into play depending on their starting spots.
• In the Ford camp, the Penske cars have traditionally done well in the 750 HP package. Logano and Blaney in particular have very affordable prices tags here and are definitely on my radar.
• Lower on the salary range, I like Chase Briscoe. He also did the tire test here and generally did very well on concrete tracks coming up through the Xfinity Series. He's mentioned often in interviews how much he enjoys racing on the concrete surfaces. 
• Ryan Newman had good speed in practice and we know what a pain in the ass he is to pass. On a tough passing track like this, he could be in play if he doesn't qualify too well.

I wish I could give you guys more, but it's so hard to get into a lineup strategy or even get too deep into driver targets without knowing starting positions. It has seemed tough to pass here throughout the weekend, so it might be a week to put a little less focus on position difference upside and focus more on who you think can get really good finishes while gaining at least a few spots.

Bets

• Buescher -130 Custer
• Newman -115 Custer
• Briscoe -110 Jones
• Preece +130 Jones

A solid winning night with the Trucks both in DFS and 4 for 4 winners on the H2H bets I posted. On the Xfinity side, it all starts with Kyle Busch. In practice Friday, he was over .2 seconds per lap faster than the next car and showed he's going to have the car to beat on Saturday. Harrison Burton was able to keep pretty close to him on a longer run near the end of practice, but Burton also had 15 lap newer tires. Burton looks like he'll have a Top 5 car, but Kyle is still the man to beat.

So what to do after starting off with KB--

• Depending how qualifying goes, it may make sense to run a Kyle plus all position difference guys. And who those guys are will obviously all depend on Saturday's qualifying. Really anyone could be in play.
• Allgaier, Burton and Hemric are all great choices if they qualify outside the Top 10.
  
  • Allgaier in particular in a top target for me. Very good on concrete tracks, very good at places like Iowa and Richmond that have flatter corners like this and very good at the hot, sunny races this year. He didn't have the best speed in practice, which has me a little concerned, but I'm still very interested.
    
  • Burton and Hemric are fast every week and the Gibbs cars looked really strong in practice.
• Annett and Moffitt and (to a lesser extent) Herbst and Snider might be decent plays depending on qualifying. Annett and Moffitt are much safer. All seem affordably priced if they have +10 position difference outlooks.
• I like the potential in the $6k-$7k range and can totally see using Martins, Yeley, Brown and/or Clements. Chances are one or two of these guys qualifies 25th or worse and that would make them very attractive plays.
  • You could possibly lump Sieg in with this group, but his team sometimes tries to play games with pit strategy and it seems to blow up in their face more often then not. He's going to need a win to make the playoffs, so they might lean more on these goofy strategies to try to steal one as the regular season starts to wind down. I'd avoid unless the position difference is just too great to pass up.
• I'd normally like all three DGM cars -- Josh Williams, Alex Labbe and Dillon Bassett -- at sub-$6k prices, but they were all WAY off in practice and were 33rd, 37th and 38th on the single lap speed chart. For the price, though, they still may be good options if they qualify in the 30s because they are all solid drivers, with Williams and Labbe having a big edge over Bassett. 
• On the cheapest end, Timmy Hill could be a good choice. He's really, really cheap. And, if he qualifies for the race, he'll probably start pretty far back. This #13 car desperately needs a good finish for the owners points race -- which dictates who gets a spot in the races where there is no qualifying. So, while the Carl Long cars do fail fairly often, at least we know they're not going to be parking this car for no reason.

Bets -- Don't love a whole lot here. Here is one I'm thinking about, but have not yet played. Going to recheck lines in the morning:

• Burton -110 Gragson

Practice, qualifying and the race all on Friday. I'll go through some notes and things I see here, but you'll have to monitor what happens Friday before finalizing your lineup. I will update at some point Friday if I can.

• J.H. Nemechek - Pretty affordable price for the guy who has been head and shoulders the best regular in the series all year long. I expect a good chunk of laps led and fastest laps once again.
• Ross Chastain - Ross has put up some big DK scores this year with huge position difference gains. But those have come when the starting grid was set by owners points. With actual on track qualifying for this race, he's unlikely to have that available since he should qualify pretty well. It's tough to see him leading laps to justify a $10k+ salary.
• Austin Hill - Potential dominator if Nemechek is off. He's a guy I have a lot of interest in pending practice and qualifying.
• Grant Enfinger, Matt Crafton, Todd Gilliland and Stewart Friesen are all guys I'd feel real good about if they offer a little position difference. We should have at least one or two of them qualify outside the Top 12, which would put them in play.
• Ty Majeski - Pricing is off here. He's in a fifth ThorSport truck, which is top tier equipment. He's also had pretty good success in the Truck Series, primarily with Niece last season.
• Tyler Ankrum, Tanner Gray, Chase Purdy and Jack Wood - All guys with top level teams who should have good, reliable trucks under them.  All in play if they don't qualify well and offer a solid floor with position difference upside. Very affordable prices.
• Dawson Cram, Danny Bohn, A.W. Self and Hailie Deegan - All affordable plays that could offer really good value in decent to good trucks. No reason to go cheaper than this level. There should be some real solid value plays that emerge here.
• William Byron and Josh Berry - Both in Rackley trucks this week. This hasn't been top level equipment, but I also don't think Byron would come in to drive a piece of junk. So I'm interested, but there would have to be really good position difference upside to make them worth it. They're not going to lead laps or run fastest laps.
• Ryan Preece - Should be a good, fast truck, but probably not a lap leader. Would have to have position difference upside to make sense.
• JJ Yeley - Good driver, but not a good truck. Too expensive under the circumstances.

Bets

• Austin Hill +105 Creed
• Sauter -110 Dollar
• Majeski -115 Deegan
• Majeski -130 Purdy

I talk about it more in Trucks below, but track conditions are going to be real tough with the heat and traction compound. So we want to anchor the lineup with by far the best driver in the field -- Kyle Busch. From there, we can look at these options--

• Noah Gragson or Josh Berry for position difference. Probably just going with Berry because he's over $1k cheaper. Both have Top 5 upside but could just as easily wreck.
• Tommy Joe Martins - This is one of his best tracks, with finishes of 16th and 10th last year. In the four 1.5 mile races this year, TJM has three finishes of 19th or better. Cheap with a lot of position difference upside.
• Ronnie Bassett - It's close between Bassett and Stefan Parsons. Parsons is probably the better driver but in worse equipment and vice versa for Bassett. I'm leaning the more reliable car here, but can go either way. Or do both for cheap.
• Jeffrey Earnhardt - No worse than 23rd at the four 1.5 mile track races this season. He was pretty consistent at the 1.5 mile tracks last year too, including 13th and 18th place finishes at Texas.
• Bayley Currey - Finished 22nd and 24th in his last two 1.5 mile tracks races. As always with the Mike Harmon cars, they are very unreliable and prone to breakdowns. Don't love this play in the heat and tough conditions expected Saturday. But he does start 39th, so he's not going to kill you even if the car fails. And there is a lot more upside then some of the other guys in this range.
• Garrett Smithley - Decent driver in a decent car. He's probably got upside to finish around 20th. 

I think there's a decent chance this race turns into a caution filled wreck fest. First, NASCAR scheduled a race to start at noon in Texas in the middle of June. It's supposed to by sunny with the temperature starting at 90 and going up from there. It's going to be unbearably hot which is going to make the track slick as hell. Second, we've got the goofy traction compound in the outside groove and, as we saw in the first Charlotte practice a few weeks ago, that stuff is like ice when it's not worn in. With no practice or anything before this race, the traction compound is probably going to be a "no go" area for most drivers. Third, we've got the least talented of the fields with a lot of aggressive drivers. It's all a recipe for a likely disaster.

As far as DFS is concerned, I see this as a stars and scrubs race. We've got four really great plays up top, not a whole lot in the middle to be excited about and then some rides we can tolerate at the lowest end of the salary scale.

Stars

• J.H. Nemechek - By far the best Truck Series regular this season.  Already two wins at the four 1.5 mile tracks and no finish worse than 5th at those tracks. He dominated the last 1.5 mile race at Charlotte without Kyle Busch in the field. It's possible that Chase Elliott or Sheldon Creed get up front and lead at some point, but Nemechek is very likely to lead early and rack up a bunch of laps led and fastest laps points early in this race.
• Chase Elliott - In a GMS truck this week, which he did a few times last year. He starts 22nd, so he can easily score a bunch of points without even leading a bunch of laps or running fastest laps.
• Sheldon Creed - Dominated the last Texas race in the Fall. Been really good at the 1.5 mile tracks but hit some bad luck. I'm leaning Creed over Ross Chastain because Creed is so much more likely to lead laps or run fastest laps. The ceiling here is huge with position difference added in.
• Ross Chastain - Starts 24th, so has a ton of position difference upside. The ceiling of an Elliott or Creed isn't quite there with Chastain. 

Scrubs

• Tyler Hill - The Hill truck finished 18th and 11th last year at Texas. I like this truck a bit better when Timmy is driving, but Tyler has been pretty solid in his own right. There's not going to be anything huge here, but we'd be hoping for Tyler to keep it clean and finish around 20th.
• Tate Fogleman - Should be better than a handful of trucks starting in front of him. Just want him to finish around 25th or so.
• Ray Ciccarelli - Hold your nose on this one. Ray actually did ok at the 1.5 mile tracks last year. If the truck doesn't break down, we just want him to pass the guys who wreck out early. 

The reason I'm taking this approach is the guys in the mid-range just don't do it for me. Brennan Poole is an option, but this is his first race of the year -- which worries me with no practice. He also tends to be pretty aggressive which could go wrong in a hurry at Texas. A guy like Josh Berry is just too expensive for the truck he is in. This is 15th-20th place equipment at best.


Bets
Crafton -120 Dollar
Nemechek -125 Elliott
​C. Smith -105 Dollar

Quick flashback to last week. I got my second tournament takedown at a road course this season, winning $1,500 in the single entry $24 Rainbow contest. I also won $20,000 in the big GPP for the Truck race at the Daytona road course in February. Not sure if I'm onto a winning strategy at road courses or if it's coincidental. The winning lineup this time was Kyle Larson, Martin Truex, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Ryan Preece and Scott Heckert. You'll notice five of those guys were in my free preview article last weekend. Also nailed +145 and +275 bets last Sunday. It was a very profitable day.

I'm not resting on last week though. Here's a few quick mid-week plays where the odds will probably get worse as Sunday nears, so I've locked them in now. The Chevys have been so strong at the low horsepower tracks and there's been public speculation that Hendrick and RCR have found a way to get some extra HP out of those engines, which is making them so fast at these tracks. We're all the way down to 510 HP this week, so we don't know for sure if they'll still have an advantage, but I'd still say they're the clear favorites. This race is likely to be wild, so I'd shy away from the top favorites and take a chance on these longer odds plays in the Chevys--

• Byron +1400 to win
• Bowman +1400 to win
• A. Dillon +2200 to win