The Fantasy Nascar Guy
  • Home
  • About
  • Contact
  • LINKS
  • Support
I started this blog to provide a casual, recreational level of fantasy NASCAR advice and discussion.  I've been playing these contests for a number of years and am annoyed by lineup sellers and groups of players using the same lineup.  I'm hoping to give the casual player some help in building solid lineups that can beat that annoying crowd most of the time.  I'm not a "tout" and don't do this for a living, so proceed accordingly.  I hope you enjoy the discussion here and Good Luck!

las vegas preview

2/28/2018

0 Comments

 
Picture



www.lvms.com

Off to Las Vegas this weekend for the second consecutive 1.5 mile track.  This is a much different track though.  The pavement is not as old as Atlanta and it won't chew up tires and kill lap time as much as we saw in Atlanta.  We have one practice and then qualifying on Friday with two additional hour long practices on Saturday.  The weather should be dry, but chilly, which will probably give us some very fast speeds.

We have a pretty good list of drivers with a long history of consistent success at Las Vegas.  Here are some we'll be looking at very closely this week in order of their DK price:

  • Martin Truex -- $10,500 -- He's the most expensive driver this week for good reason.  I expect him to get back to his dominance on 1.5 mile tracks.  He won this race last year and led 150 of 267 laps.
  • Brad Keselowski -- $9,400 -- This is a good price for Brad.  He has two wins and has finished no worse than seventh in the last five Vegas races.  And Fords look very strong so far.  He's an option to pair with Truex or to be your headline driver if you fade Truex in a lineup or two.
  • Joey Logano -- $9,300 -- A good pivot option off of Keselowski.  Logano has finished 4th, 2nd, 10th and 4th in the last four Vegas races.
  • Ryan Blaney -- $8,700 -- Finished 7th and 6th in his only two Vegas races.  Has very similar prospects to Keselowski and Logano for $600/$700 less salary.
  • Clint Bowyer -- $8,100 -- Clint had a great run last week.  He finished 10th last year at Vegas in his first season with SHR.  I don't love him in this spot, but it's a pretty good price for a solid driver on a championship caliber team.
  • Jamie McMurray -- $7,400 -- He finished 8th last year.  And he's finished no worse than 16th in the last five Vegas races.  He's been pretty quiet so far, but this is a good team.
  • Paul Menard -- $6,900 -- I feel like he's under priced in a very strong Wood Brothers car that has Penske support.  He's finished in the Top 20 the last eight Vegas races and has three Top 10s in that time.
  • Trevor Bayne -- $6,300 -- Finished 13th and 17th the last two Vegas races.  A possible low cost filler.
  • Kasey Kahne -- $6,200 -- Finished in the Top 20 the last ten Vegas races, with five Top 10 finishes in that time. 

As of now, I'm thinking this list is too heavy on the Fords.  I'll be looking for one or two Toyotas and Chevrolets to add to the list on Friday or Saturday.

0 Comments

atlanta post race and vegas peek ahead

2/25/2018

1 Comment

 
Picture



​














Picture c/o Stewart Haas Racing

If you played our main line-up this week, you doubled your money.
  I played it in the $50 DK single entry game and doubled my money with a $100 payout.  Let's take another look at that line-up, which we posted late Saturday night:
  • Harvick
  • Truex
  • Bowyer (or Kurt Busch)
  • Blaney
  • Kahne
  • Ty Dillon
Harvick and Truex did exactly what we (and much of the industry) expected.  Harvick dominated and Truex charged to the front.  Both scored gobs of points as we thought they would.

Bowyer and Kurt Busch were the key to victory here.  Bowyer was under 10% owned in the games I played and Kurt was right around 10% owned.  Bowyer scored 55.5 points after finishing third from the ninth starting spot.  Kurt finished eighth after starting seventh, but he led 52 laps, so he scored 57.5 points.  We identified Bowyer based on how strong he was in final practice with single lap, 10 lap, 15 lap and 20 lap averages.  Kurt had a very strong recent history at Atlanta and ran solidly in practice as well.  So the signs were there if you did your homework -- which we did.

We also added Blaney based on his strong performance in final practice.  Watching that coverage really paid off.

We're obviously disappointed with Kahne and Ty Dillion.  We expected a bit better.  It turns out that the winner of the $50 DK contest had a very similar line-up.  They had the same four main drivers we posted, but used Austin Dillon and David Ragan instead of Kahne and Ty Dillon.  Austin made a huge difference -- scoring 41 points after finishing 14th from the 25th starting spot.  I didn't want to go there because I expected a Daytona hangover.  Plus Austin had no history of strong Atlanta runs -- finishing worse than 30th in two of the prior three races.  But taking those chances led to a very large pay day.

We also talked about fading Ryan Newman given his history of poor finishes from strong starting spots at Atlanta.  That was spot on as Newman finished 22nd and failed to score even 30 points.

As for our alternate lineups, they were designed as contrarian lineups to capitalize if Harvick or Truex, or both, ran into problems.  So these lineups obviously did poorly since the conventional wisdom prevailed this week.  In addition, both lineups featured Jimmie Johnson based on his strong Atlanta history and position difference potential.  But his day was all but over when he spun and suffered damage shortly before the end of Stage 2.  Again, if you're playing multiple line-ups, these are the types of line-ups you want to sprinkle in to hit it big if a race turns unpredictable and the favorites fall.  By their nature, these line-ups normally fail.  But when they succeed, they tend to win big.

On to Vegas!
Just a few quick notes on Vegas.  We'll spend much more time on it throughout the week:
  • Truex won the Vegas race last year and he dominated 1.5 mile tracks -- will likely be the car to beat this week
  • Watch all the Penske cars--
    • Keselowski has two wins and has finished 7th or better in the last five Vegas races
    • Logano has finished 4th, 2nd, 10th, and 4th in the last four Vegas races
    • Blaney has finished 7th and 6th in the last two Vegas races
  • I don't know what to do with the 48 team right now, but Jimmie Johnson has led at least 19 laps in each of the last six Vegas races
(h/t to driveraverages.com for the data)

1 Comment

atlanta Sunday morning update

2/24/2018

1 Comment

 
  • Rain is a good possibility.  The start time for the race has been moved up to 1pm Eastern time to try to beat the rain.  But forecasts show rain likely from about 9am Sunday through 12 noon on Monday, so a washout Sunday remains a distinct possibility.  You can follow race related weather forecasts on Twitter with @NASCAR_WXMAN and @RaceWeather.

  • I still like Harvick a lot.  As we have said all week, he has dominated the last four Cup races at Atlanta and it looked in practice like his car is dialed in again.  He was 7th in the 10 consecutive lap time and 3rd in the 20 consecutive lap time.  This shows his strength over the long run.  He also dominated the Xfinity race Saturday -- winning it while leading 141 of 163 laps.  The Fox broadcast also mentioned radio chatter that Harvick was real happy with his Cup car in final practice.  Everyone laughed and noted it was terrible news for the rest of the field.

  • I also still like Kurt Busch.  He has quietly finished in the Top 7 in six of the last eight Atlanta races.  In final practice, he was 9th in 10 consecutive lap time and 5th in 20 consecutive lap time.

  • I am feeling better about Kyle Busch.  It is still risky to start someone from the pole given the downside potential in position difference.  But Kyle seems to have a very strong car for long runs.  He was 2nd in 10 consecutive lap time and 1st in 20 consecutive lap time. 

  • I am adding Clint Bowyer to the target list.  He starts 9th.  In final practice, he was 9th in single lap time, 4th in 10 consecutive lap time, 1st in 15 consecutive lap time and 2nd in 20 consecutive lap time.  In a post practice interview, he sounded very happy with his car.

  • I'm also adding Blaney, who starts 26th.  In final practice, he was 6th in 10 consecutive lap time and 4th in 20 consecutive lap time.

  • As far as other targets starting further back, I rank them Truex (best), then Johnson, then Elliott.  Truex had the fifth best 10 consecutive lap time and dominated these 1.5 mile tracks last year.  Johnson has won two of the last three Atlanta races.  He had the 13th best 10 consecutive lap time.  Elliott has two strong finishes in two starts here, but was only 18th on the 10 consecutive lap time chart.

  • For cheap targets, Kasey Kahne looked the most solid, with Ty Dillion behind him.

  • I am still fading Ryan Newman.  He was only 17th fastest for 10 consecutive lap time.

  • Here's a couple of lineup options--
    • Balanced Option w/ Harvick dominating
      • Harvick
      • Truex
      • Blaney
      • Bowyer (or Kurt Busch)
      • Ty Dillon
      • Kahne
    • Balanced Option w/ Kyle dominating
      • Kyle
      • Truex
      • Blaney
      • Johnson
      • Ty Dillon
      • Kahne
      • (can swap Bowyer or Kurt Busch in Blaney or Johnson spots)
    • Fade Truex -- I think Truex is going to have a great day.  But he'll be 50%+ owned in all likelihood, so it you want to go contrarian, take two front runners and fill in behind them:
      • Harvick
      • Kyle Busch
      • Johnson
      • Blaney
      • Ty Dillon
      • Kahne
      • (can swap Bowyer or Kurt Busch in Blaney or Johnson spots)

  • Good luck on Sunday -- or whenever this race runs!  We'll be back after the race to review how our picks did and take a first glance at Las Vegas.

As always, if you like what we're doing here, please consider supporting us with a donation.  You may visit our Patreon page to donate by CLICKING HERE.  Thank you.
1 Comment

atlanta post-qualifying update

2/23/2018

0 Comments

 
Some interesting developments during qualifying. 

First, Kyle Busch wins the pole.  He certainly has to be on the radar since it wouldn't surprise if he leads numerous laps and runs a significant number of fastest laps.  But there is so much risk in the position difference category.  And there is this history:  Kyle has qualified in the Top 10 in nine of the last ten Atlanta races.  But, in those nine races, he has finished in the Top 10 only three times.  And the most laps he has led in any of those nine races is 66.  That shows the downside risk of using him this week.  (h/t www.driveraverages.com)  

Second, Martin Truex starts 35th.  Given his 1.5 mile track record, you have to think he's going to move forward and score a lot of position difference points.  And, in a long 500 mile race, it's possible he works his way all the way to the front and also scores laps led/fastest lap points.  (In 2015, Jimmie Johnson started 37th, but won the race and led 92 laps.  And in 2016, Kyle Busch started 39th, but finished 3rd and led 2 laps.  So it has been done.)  Truex has the biggest points upside in the field I think.

High End Options
I think Truex and Harvick have the highest upside and there are ways to get them both in there despite their $10K+ salaries.

Other expensive options starting towards the front include Brad Keselowski and Kurt Busch -- both of whom we highlighted earlier this week.

Further back in the field, I like Chase Elliott and Jimmie Johnson.  Each has run well here in recent races and they both offer good upside with position difference points.  I'm also OK with Blaney.  He has a mediocre record at Atlanta, but you have to figure he's likely to move up 10 spots or so from his 26th starting position.

Cheaper Options
Ty Dillon and Kasey Kahne look like pretty good lower cost options to me.  They have at least some credibility compared to the other low end options.  I don't think either of these guys are going to score a huge points day, but they should be solid.

Some will look at Ryan Newman's $6,900 salary since he starts on the front row.  But I'm really worried about him.  He started 2nd last year too, but finished 35th.  The year before, he started 4th, but finished 24th.  Another replay of that would be a huge hit to your lineup.  If you're playing a lot of lineups, I suppose you can dump Newman in one or two.  He'll be low owned and if he does lead laps and stay up front, it will differentiate you from most other entries.

***

I'm still tinkering with some lineup possibilities.  Will be back by Sunday morning with any new developments and a few sample lineups to help you finalize your lineups for the race.  Until then, keep an eye on weather reports as things don't seem to be getting any better.  80% chance of rain on Sunday!  

0 Comments

atlanta (Early friday am update)

2/22/2018

0 Comments

 
A few quick notes before on track action begins today:
  • Today we have practice from 1135am-1255pm Eastern.  Then qualifying at 515pm Eastern.  Both will be shown live on FS1.
  • Pay particular attention to the first 30-45 minutes of practice.  That is when most teams will probably work on their race set-up.  (After that, most will switch to qualifying trim.)  Watch and listen to determine whose cars are handling well and showing speed in that first part of practice.
  • Atlanta is a very abrasive track with rapid tire wear.  Lap times will go up dramatically over longer runs.  Pay attention to any numbers or comments the Fox crew gives for 10, 15 or even 20 lap averages.  You will want to focus on the drivers who are sustaining their lap times the best over a longer run.
  • The forecast is still very wet for Sunday, so the final race schedule is a bit up in the air.
  • We'll have more after today's action is complete.
0 Comments

atlanta (part 1)

2/22/2018

0 Comments

 
Picture

















​Pic from AMS official website

​Here's our first detailed look at this weekend's race at Atlanta Motor Speedway.  With all the randomness and unpredictability that goes into a plate track race like Daytona, I consider this the true start to the fantasy NASCAR season.  So let's get started and win some contests.

This is a 500 mile race on an old, worn out 1.5 mile surface.  Last year, most of the cars that ran all the laps made 9 - 11 pit stops.  So, with the new pit stop procedures this year, a team that can have clean, penalty free pit stops is going to gain a significant advantage in track position.  Not to knock them unfairly, but the 11 team of Denny Hamlin seems to have an inordinate share of pit road mishaps.  It has been prevalent in years past and reared it's head at Daytona when Hamlin slide through his box and was then penalized when the crew started fueling the car before it was fully back in the pit stall.  Two mistakes in the same pit stop in race one is not the way to start.

Another factor this week will be the weather.  The schedule is set up with one practice and qualifying on Friday, one practice on Saturday and the race at 2pm Eastern time on Sunday.  Friday's weather is predicted to be OK.  But Saturday shows a 30-50% rain chance.  And Sunday shows rain likely throughout the day.  Hopefully we can get the race in Sunday without delays or interruptions.  Even if we do, though, the conditions could be much different than what the drivers experienced earlier in the weekend.  That should favor drivers who have done well in recent races and have a good baseline coming into the weekend.

So, here's our list of the top recent performers at Atlanta.  You'll probably want to get two or three of these guys onto your DK roster:
  • Kevin Harvick -- Kevin has dominated the last four Atlanta races, but he has no wins and only one Top 5 finish to show for it.  In 2014, he led 195 of 335 laps, but finished 19th.  In 2015, he led 116 of 325 laps and finished 2nd.  In 2016, he led 131 of 330 laps and finished 6th.  And, in 2017, he led 292 of 325 laps, but finished 9th.  This is a case of bad luck or mistakes hitting at the wrong time.  He could very easily have four straight wins.  He loves to ride around the bottom yellow line here, so we'll look for that in practice to confirm he has the same feel and handle as in recent years.  In addition to great race performances, Harvick has also won the pole twice in the last four races.
  • Martin Truex Jr. -- The 78 group just kills the 1.5 mile tracks.  As we noted in the season preview series, seven of Truex's eight wins in 2017 were at 1.5 mile tracks.  He won seven of the eleven races run at those tracks in 2017.  He finished no worse than 8th in those races and his average finish was 2.5.  And he led over 33% of the laps run at those tracks.  The only nitpick is that Truex has never won at Atlanta.  His last three finishes were 8th, 7th and 6th, though, so he's been near the front consistently.  Despite the lack of wins, he and Harvick could make a strong 1-2 punch this week since (depending on starting position) they are likely to score a load of laps led and fastest lap bonus points.  
  • Chase Elliott -- Chase is from nearby Dawsonville, Georgia, so it's a special "home" race for him.  In his only two Cup Series races in Atlanta, he finished 5th and 8th.  He's a strong pick for another Top 10 finish.
  • Brad Keselowski -- Brad won the 2017 Atlanta race and finished 9th in both the 2016 and 2015 races.  Despite those impressive finishes, however, he doesn't have the laps led or other numbers to show real domination at this track.
  • Kurt Busch -- Kurt has been consistently strong at this track.  In the last eight Atlanta races, Kurt has one win, six Top 10 finishes and no finish worse than 13th position.  Here's the list of his last eight finishing positions with the most recent first -- 7th, 4th, 13th, 4th, 13th, 4th, 6th and 1st.
  • Jimmie Johnson -- Jimmie won the Atlanta races in 2015 and 2016.  In 2015, he led 92 laps and in 2016 he led 52 laps.  Simply put, he has shown an ability to close out a race at this track and best a car (Harvick's) that seemed unbeatable.  On the flip side, Jimmie had a disappointing 19th place finish in the most recent Atlanta race in 2017.  As of now, I don't love Jimmie in this spot given all that's gone on of late, but I can't not mention a guy of his stature when he's won two of the last three races at this track.  And I could not fault anyone for using him this week.  Just not sure I'm comfortable enough to do so yet.
  • Joey Logano -- He looked strong last week and this 22 team might be getting the championship level juice back.  Joey has been good, but not great, at this track of late.  His last five finishes are 6th, 12th, 4th, 14th and 2nd.
We'll have more analysis as the weekend nears and some more definitive guidance after we see what happens in qualifying on Friday afternoon.  If you're interested in tracking the weather situation, check out Brian Neudorff on twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN

CLICK HERE to visit our Patreon page



0 Comments

daytona day recap & atlanta nuggets

2/18/2018

0 Comments

 


Thank you to everyone who visited the site on Daytona Day.  We shattered all previous traffic records here as people are seeing all we can provide.

After each race this season, we're going to do a recap and look ahead.  In the recap, we'll go through some observations and analysis of the just completed race and review how our driver targets and predictions turned out.  In the look ahead, we'll provide just a few nuggets of fantasy relevant information for the upcoming week's race.  Here we go.

Daytona 500 Recap:  Four big wrecks played a huge role in whether you had a good or bad fantasy racing day.  All four were the direct result of cars blocking strong runs coming from behind.  I suppose it's something that is going to happen at plate tracks, but I just don't understand blocking at the front of the field in the first half of the race.  It seems like the first two big wrecks could have been avoided.  I get blocking in the closing laps, and I saw all the action there as "just racing".  In the last incident, Almirola did what he had to do to try to stay in front and Dillon did what I think 99 out of 100 drivers would do in his position.

How did we do with our drivers and predictions this week?  Our top picks were Brad Keselowski, Aric Almirola and Kyle Larson.  All three picks were the right ones, but we got a bit unlucky -- particularly with Almirola.  He was out front and poised to win (or at least finish in the top five) after starting 37th.  Dillon got a run on him, Almirola went to block it and got knocked into the fence a mile from the finish line.  He came home 11th and still scored 62.25 points, but he came inches away from having a banner day.  Larson seemed to get dinged every time there was a wreck and his car was not right at the end.  He finished 19th and still scored 47 points, but it seemed like a disappointment considering what might have been.  BK really killed us.  He had a run on the 9 car, tried to pass him on a late inside move, the 9 went to block, and they came together.  From the post-incident interview, it was pretty clear that Brad regretted the chance he took that early in the race.  He was running in the top five and there were still almost 20 laps left in Stage 2.  In hindsight, it would have been much better to back it down there.  But those are split second decisions and I'll always take my chances with BK at the plate tracks.  Here, however, he finished 32nd and scored only 12 points.

Our next group was Martin Truex Jr., Kasey Kahne, AJ Allmendinger and Jimmie Johnson.  I'm really proud of the Allmendinger pick.  I did not see anyone else touting him this week and he was only about 10% owned in the games I played.  He finished 10th and scored 45.75 points at a minimal salary.  This was our best call of the week.  Kahne was looking good and running in the Top 10 but got taken out as an innocent bystander in the Keselowski incident.  That was a killer for us because Kahne was only around 20% owned in the games I played and could have combined with Allmendinger to form a winning, low-owned combination.  Truex was also running near the front late, but got caught up in the second to last incident and had pretty heavy front end damage.  That took him from a Top 10 finish to 18th.  And Jimmie was looking great.  He went from starting in the back to the Top 5 in Stage One alone.  He had a potentially huge points day, but got taken out as an innocent bystander in the first "big one".  So this group had one great call and three very, very unlucky ones.  That is the way it goes sometimes at plate tracks.
 
Our last group was Hamlin, Logano, Blaney and Stenhouse.  The first three guys there finished 3rd, 4th and 7th.  While they didn't have position difference bonuses to speak of, they each paid very solid points.  Stenhouse got front end damage in one of the incidents, began to overheat at the end of Stage 2 and finished 29th.

Our bold predictions were (1) Some combination of 4 cars from Penske and SHR would finish in the Top 10.  Not quite.  Two Penskes were in the Top 10, but the SHR crew just missed out.  Almirola finished 11th and Bowyer 15th.  (2) A Penske or SHR car wins.  Nope.  Dillion's Chevy broke Ford's seven race winning streak at plate tracks.  (3) At most 1 Hendrick car finishes in the Top 20.  Nailed it!  The only Hendrick car in the Top 20 was Alex Bowman who finished 17th.  (4) RCR and affiliate Germain will put two cars in the Top 10.  YES!  Dillon won and Newman finished 8th.

On To Atlanta:  We start the real weekly grind next week at Atlanta.  It's an old worn out track that just beats up the cars.  A few quick nuggets from recent Atlanta races:
  • Brad Keselowski won at Atlanta last year and has three consecutive top ten finishes.
  • Kevin Harvick has three consecutive top ten finishes and has led an amazing 539 of 980 (55%) laps in the last three races at Atlanta.  Even more amazing is that he has not won any of those races.  Harvick loves to hook the bottom yellow line and ride it all day at Atlanta.  If he is able to get the handling of the car right in practice, he could dominate once again.
  • Chase Elliott has finished in the top ten in both of his Atlanta races.
  • Martin Truex Jr. has three consecutive top ten finishes at Atlanta.
We'll be talking about all these drivers as the week progresses.

Again, thank you so much for reading.  And please reach out to let us know how we're doing.  What do you like and what do you think we could do better?

Finally, if you like what we're doing, please consider supporting this site by visiting our Patreon page at www.patreon.com/user?u=9838394
0 Comments

final pre-race daytona thoughts

2/17/2018

0 Comments

 
  • The ending of the Xfinity race today is another reminder why it's borderline insane to try to predict plate track races.  So many drivers ran near the front all day long, but the wreck up front (and then multiple overtime wrecks) took it all away -- in most cases through no fault of the driver.  In the end, I would say plate tracks are at best 50% driver skill and 50% luck.  It is really probably way more luck.  With that in mind, any predictions about who might win and who will score the most fantasy points on Sunday is only a little more scientific than a wild guess.
  • Just to have some guys to root for, I played the big $3 game on DK today.  Came in 218th out of 5,945 entries.  Won $10.  Big deal.  But, I really don't play much more then that at plate tracks.  I'll do a bit more for the 500, but will be much more heavily invested in Atlanta next week and beyond.  For this week, plan to lose every cent you play and be happy to win any of it back.
  • I'm sticking with the guys I've already talked about this week (see below).  The big choice this week is what to do with Keselowski and Larson in particular.  If either (or both) of those guys wins or finishes real high up, it will be really hard to overcome that if they're not in your line-up because they'll have so many position difference bonus points.   If you're doing one entry, I've got to think you want to have them both in there.  But, if you were to pick only one of them, I lean Keselowski.  If you're doing multiple entries, shake things up.  Do some lineups with both in there, some with one or the other and then some fading both of them completely.  Fading both is ultra risky, but both will be so highly owned that, if you do fade them and they both wreck, then you'll almost certainly have a good day.  Almirola and Jimmie Johnson are also guys starting in the rear that you will want to sprinkle throughout your line-ups in case they go to the front.  I'd say it's less likely for them to do so, but anything can happen at a plate track.  So use them in some lineups if you want to cover all the bases.
  • A few final bold predictions -- (1) Some combination of 4 cars from Penske and Stewart-Haas will be in the top 10.  I'll say Logano, Blaney, Harvick and Bowyer.  (2)  A Penske or SHR car wins.  (3)  At most, 1 Hendrick car will finish in the Top 20.  The young guns will crash, the 48 will have some kind of trouble and only Chase Elliott will finish on the lead lap.  (4)  RCR plus affiliate Germain Racing will put 2 cars in the top 10.  I'll go with Newman and Ty Dillon.
  • Enjoy the race.  I'll try to post something real late Sunday night/early Monday morning with my race observations and analyzing how off base my targets and predictions were!
0 Comments

daytona saturday update

2/16/2018

0 Comments

 
Nothing from Friday practice changed where I am looking on Sunday.  So here is where I'm at on Draft Kings:

Top Picks
I really like these guys because they have excellent records at plate tracks and they are starting towards the back of the field, so offer great potential for position difference bonus points.
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Aric Almirola
  • Kyle Larson

Next Group
These guys are starting mid-field and offer some combination of position difference bonus plus a solid record at plate tracks.
  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Kasey Kahne
  • AJ Allmendinger
  • Jimmie Johnson

High Risk
All of these guys are good candidates to win the race, but they also come with huge point differential downside.  They could score a lot of points, but carry a ton of risk.  If you do want to take one of them, don't pair them with anyone else starting near the front.
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Joey Logano
  • Ryan Blaney
  • Ricky Stenhouse
0 Comments

Quick Notes From The Duels

2/16/2018

0 Comments

 
The Duels were pretty uneventful.  A few incidents, but also a lot of single file rim riding around the top of the track.  For fantasy purposes, most of what we already talked about in our previews below is looking spot on.

First, as we've talked about, it looks like the Fords will continue to dominate at plate tracks.  In the first Duel, the Penske Fords ran 1-2-3 most of the race.  Keselowski crashed out late, but Ford still scored the win and four of the top five spots.  In the second Duel, the Fords of Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer and even Paul Menard all looked strong.  Fords will make up 6 of the Top 12 starters on Sunday.

Second, some of our under the radar driver targets looked strong.  Guys like Clint Bowyer, Trevor Bayne and AJ Allmendinger looked solid and finished in the Top 10 in the second Duel.  They will start in the top half of the field on Sunday.  In the first race, Logano and Stenhouse scored Top 5 finishes.  And Aric Almirola was crashed out when Jimmie blew the tire, but the 10 car looked good at the start and Almirola spoke very highly of the car in his post-crash interview.  In a nutshell, he said they felt they could contend for the win and that they were just riding and biding their time until the end of the race.

The closest thing we have to a new development for fantasy purposes is a few big names starting at the rear of the field Sunday after crashing out.  That gives them solid potential for bonus points for position difference from start to finish.  Guys like Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski will all start 30th or worse on Sunday.  Given his success at plate tracks, I think that moves the 2 car of Keselowski right to the top of the board.  JJ and Larson don't have the same history of success at plate tracks, but this gives them a chance to really return great value if they can avoid the big one and finish in the Top 15 or so.

We'll watch practice tomorrow, crunch some more numbers and do an updated/final driver target list on Saturday.

Finally, THANK YOU to everyone who is visiting the blog.  Traffic is picking up each day and we really appreciate it.  We're new to the scene, but think we can provide some great insights and advice.  We hope you agree.  As always, please leave comments or contact us on Twitter with your feedback.


0 Comments
<<Previous

    Author

    My name is Steve and I've won thousands playing NASCAR fantasy racing games.  This blog will share my advice for enjoying and winning your fantasy racing games. 

    Archives

    January 2023
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017

    Categories

    All
    2018 Preview
    Atlanta
    Background/Intro
    Charlotte
    Daytona

    RSS Feed

Proudly powered by Weebly
  • Home
  • About
  • Contact
  • LINKS
  • Support