So happy to have starting positions the day before. Let's get right to it.

• Kyle Larson -- All cash game lineups should start with Larson. He's on pole, he's led almost half the laps at the 1.5 mile tracks this season and he's run by far the most fastest laps at those tracks. In the last three races at 1.5 mile tracks, he's led at least 103 laps, run at least 57 fastest laps and scored at least 98 DK points. All without starting from pole or having the best pit stall in those races.
• Kyle Busch -- Love his upside from 20th. At the last three 1.5 mile tracks, he's finished 3rd, 5th and 1st. In the last four 600s, he's finished 2nd (63 LL, 67 FL), 1st (377 LL, 139 FL), 3rd (79 LL, 52 FL) and 5th (0 LL, 11 FL). He has said he is better when they get practice and he usually gets better as the race goes on -- which obviously helps most at the longest race of the year.
• Chris Buescher (27th) and Ryan Newman (25th) -- Teammates who have been pretty fast and very solid at the 1.5 mile tracks this season. In those four races, the two have combined for eight Top 20 finishes, including three Top 10 finishes. On top of that, Buescher has finished 6th and 11th in the last two Coke 600 races. I prefer Buescher over Newman slightly.
• Michael McDowell -- He has finished 6th, 17th, 19th and 13th at the 1.5 mile tracks this season.  18th, 22nd and 19th in the last three Coke 600 races. Shows it's realistic to look for a high teens finish here.
• Aric Almirola -- Man has he had some awful luck this year. The speed hasn't been great, which has put him in some tough spots, but he's also gotten downright unlucky in recent weeks. Starts 31st, so there's a great floor and still Top 10ish upside. He's been solid in recent Coke 600 races -- 13th, 11th and 16th in the last three years. But, three of four finishes at the 1.5 mile tracks this year are 29th or worse. 
• Joey Logano -- Just seems weird to have him priced under $9k from the 16th starting spot. But he hasn't been great at 1.5 mile tracks this year. He has finishes of 25th, 9th, 15th and 17th and has led a total of 19 laps and run a total of 9 fastest laps. 2nd and 14th in the last two Coke 600s, but he has generally struggled in this race ever since his dominating win in 2015.
• Matt DiBennedetto -- He's finished 16th, 11th and 4th in the last three 1.5 mile track races this season. He also had two Top 20 finishes at Charlotte last year, including 18th in the 600. A bit on the expensive side, but I think he's got a good shot to finish inside the Top 15 and give you a solid day.
• Alex Bowman -- He had a rocket at Charlotte last year, even though the end results didn't necessarily show it. In the 600 last year, he led 164 laps and ran 52 fastest laps. Lots of confidence and momentum heading into this race off his Dover win two weeks ago. Probably too risky for cash though.

Bets I am playing this weekend--

• Kyle Busch Ev Chase Elliott
• Reddick +105 C. Bell
• Buescher -115 Bubba
• Newman +115 Bubba
• Preece +160 McDowell -- saw odds down to about +120, which isn't good enough
• Bowman +1600 to win

I can't wait to write about Cup on Saturday night when we will have qualifying spots nailed down the day before the race. As I said with Trucks, same day qualifying really limits what I can do. 

• Michael Annett is a real steady performer at the 1.5 mile tracks -- 14th, 6th and 7th in the three races this year. I mention him first because he probably won't qualify great so might be an option that gets us some pretty safe positive position difference at an affordable price.
• A.J. Allmendinger has done surprisingly well at the 1.5 mile tracks this year. He has a win at Atlanta and has led over 40 laps in two of the three races this season.
• All the Joe Gibbs cars -- Hemric, Gibbs, B. Jones and H. Burton -- should be really good. Hemric and Gibbs most likely to be lap leaders.
• Tommy Joe Martins and Jeremy Clements are two guys that have put together three solid runs at all the 1.5 mile tracks this year. Martins Top 20 in all three and Clements Top 18 in all three. Martins said in his podcast this week this is a new car that he is really excited about. He was slow in practice though, so maybe not as great as he thought or he was being extra cautious with how slick the track was Friday afternoon.
• Grey Gaulding -- It's a complicated owners points thing, but it's critical for Gaulding to have a solid run in the #52 to maintain owners points position to lock in this car for next week. Extra sponsorship this week should allow a full tire allotment.
• Dillon Bassett -- Also an owners points deal here trying to get into the Top 40. Had Austin Dillon in the car last week and showing speed in RCR affiliated car.
• Avoid Brandon Gdovic. First, he's overpriced. Second, his car was WAY off and he looked very uncomfortable in practice. Possible it was just the ride height, which is an easy fix for Saturday, but not taking the chance.
• There should be good competition at the front of the field this week. All the Gibbs cars, Austin Cindric and maybe Allmendinger should battle up front. Depending how qualifying shakes out, it might be a week to focus on stacking position difference guys under the theory that no one is going to run away and dominate laps led or fastest laps and crush you if you don't have them. There are a lot of potential under $10k options going down to about Myatt Snider at $7,400.

​

I wish I could give you all some better advice, but the same day qualifying really limits what I can do. Best thing I can do is give you some thoughts on a bunch of guys I'll be looking to use so you have options once you know qualifying spots--

• J.H. Nemechek - Ton of speed at the 1.5 mile tracks this year. Most likely dominator and someone I'll probably lock in no matter where he starts. He and Kyle Busch have really dominated all three 1.5 mile track races this year. No Kyle this week, so JHN should take it.
• Sheldon Creed and Austin Hill - Love Hill at the 1.5 mile tracks. 2nd or 3rd in all three races this year. Not the same upside as Nemechek or Creed, but might be the safest bet for a Top 5. On Creed, he got some extra cash from an outside sponsor this week, so should be on the top of his game. Next best option to dominate after Nemechek. Big upside, but he's always very aggressive so has the downside too.
• Zane Smith - Outside shot to lead laps. Runs fast at the 1.5 mile tracks. Best option in the $9-10k range unless one of the others qualifies in the back.
  • A few quick things on the other guys in this range -- Enfinger is not in a ThorSport truck. He's in the Team Rohrbaugh #9, so somewhat more limited upside. Currey and Kraus also not in top tier trucks. And Kraus can't seem to run a clean race right now. Not really interested in any of these guys unless starting pretty far back.
• Ty Majeski - In a fifth ThorSport truck this week. Pretty solid option just under $8k. He ran 8th last year at Charlotte in a Niece truck and was generally solid at the 1.5 mile tracks in that truck. This is probably a little better truck compared to Niece.
• Drew Dollar - In the #51 truck which Kyle Busch has done so well in at the other 1.5 mile tracks this season. He's got ARCA experience at 1.5 mile tracks. Probably too cheap for how good of a truck he is in.
• Carson Hocevar - Seems too cheap. He's run pretty well this year and the Niece trucks overall have been OK at the 1.5 mile tracks.
• Austin Wayne Self - He's not wrecking this year and is racking up a bunch of Top 20 finishes. Very affordable and actually been one of the more reliable guys in this Series this season.
• Jack Wood - A GMS development driver who is up to this seat after Lessard's funding went away. He has very limited 1.5 mile track experience, but is in a top notch ride. Too cheap for the quality of the truck.

Practice at 11:30 (Eastern), qualifying at 5:30 and race at 8:30. You've got to check practice and qualifying results before finalizing your lineup. If I have time, I might throw up a quick update, but no guaranties.

It's just so tough to give any real concrete advice with same day qualifying. Like the Trucks and Xfinity race, I think it's best to target guys you think can give you at least 8-10 position difference points. There's enough laps in the Cup race (and we've seen very few cautions so far this weekend) to where targeting laps led and fastest laps could work. But with the way strategies and stage breaks work out, this can get really risky.

Here are some specific targets I have in mind heading into qualifying--

• Chase Elliott -- I think he's pretty clearly the best road course guy in the Series. I'll definitely want him if he carries any position difference upside. Four wins in the last five road course races -- and probably wins five in a row if he doesn't get pushed off track at Daytona this year.
• Kyle Busch -- He was dominant in the Xfinity race on Saturday and should have a great feel for track at this point.
• I love the range from $8,100 (Kurt Busch) up to $9,200 (William Byron). I'd feel great stacking a few of those guys who offer position difference upside. Kurt, Bowman, Blaney, Byron, Bell, Allmendinger -- I like them all if they have some position difference upside. This is the sweet spot.
• Chris Buescher and Chase Briscoe are my favorite under $7k plays -- pending starting spot of course. Both are very solid course racers and I'd look for a Top 15 finish.
• Rickey Stenhouse, Daniel Suarez, Ross Chastain and Michael McDowell are others to consider in the lower salary ranges.

I can't do a whole lot worthwhile with Trucks or Xfinity. We're probably going to have qualifying in the wet weather, so anything can happen. Obviously, if good drivers mess up something in qualifying they are going to be great position difference plays. With stage breaks and cautions, there are so few dominator points out there that it makes the most sense to try to stack solid drivers who you think can gain 5-8 spots or so. Finishing position and positions gained are the key for tomorrow.

The best I can really do is give you a couple of lists of guys I'll really be watching in qualifying and be looking to roster depending on their starting position. I'm not going to include your top guys like Nemechek and Creed for Trucks or Cindric and Allmendinger for Xfinity.

Trucks

• Kaz Grala
• Camden Murphy
• A.W. Self
• Sam Meyer
• Todd Gilliland
• Parker Chase
• Stewart Friesen
• Timmy Hill
• Parker Klingerman

Xfinity

• Myatt Snider
• Spencer Pumpelly
• Andy Lally
• Kris Wright
• Alex Labbe
• Jade Buford
• Timmy Hill
• Preston Pardus

Anniversary weekend for me, so I won't be posting anything for Dover. Back in full for COTA next weekend!

SUNDAY UPDATE -- ADDED ONE MORE H2H BET AT THE BOTTOM

We really don't have a whole lot to go on this weekend because the Cup Series is running the 750HP, low downforce package. It's radically different than what they've run here the last two years -- and much closer to the 2018 Cup package and even the Xfinity Series set up. And there aren't any good track comparisons where the 750HP package has been run. Most of the 750HP tracks are shorter flat tracks (like Martinsville, Phoenix and Richmond) that don't really comp to Darlington at all. Other 750HP tracks (like Dover and Bristol) do have significant banking in the corner like Darlington, but they are much shorter overall and/or don't have the real high groove that most prefer at Darlington. Without practice, we're doing even more guessing then normal this weekend.

Spend up options

• I've got to go back to Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin as my top options here. With so much uncertainty, I think the best bet is to go with the most talented driver who has had really good cars most weeks (Larson) and the guy who has been the most consistently fast driver at all tracks this season (Hamlin).
  • Larson starts 14th and gives you some position difference upside as well. Looking back on his races in the 2018 (and earlier) Darlington package, he was one of the best. In 2017 and 2018, he lead at least 120 laps and ran at least 50 fastest laps in each race. And that was in a Chip Ganassi car, so imagine what he can do now in a Hendrick car.
  • For Hamlin, he was on his way to another Top 5 (if not a win) last week at Kansas before hitting the wall while leading. He's simply been the most consistently fast car at all types of tracks this year. He, too, was strong in the similar Darlington package of the past and he's also run a ton of Xfinity races here. I think that gives this team a bit of a leg up on the field for how to set up the low downforce package here at Darlington.
• One quick note on Ryan Blaney and Alex Bowman. I could see using either of these guys with their position difference floor and upside. What I'm struggling with for both of them is that they generally do their best in cooler conditions. Sunday is a day time race with a high of 85 and full sunshine. This track is going to get hot and slick and that's not where these guys are at their best. They definitely are playable, I'm just struggling with projecting their upside here.

Middle Tier Options

• Christopher Bell, Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola and Rickey Stenhouse are the top options here. A few notes on each.
  • Bell has experience in the Xfinity package which is closer to what they'll be running Sunday then the Cup Series package of the last two years. However, he has not excelled at tracks with high tire wear or where you need to run the wall to be fast. And he wasn't that great even in the Xfinity races. He did finish 11th here in the Cup race last Fall though.
  • Busch is a real solid choice with tons of experience at this track in different packages. Five Top 8 finishes in the last six races here.
  • Almirola and Stenhouse have +10-12 position difference upside. They offer some safety with high 20s starting positions. Almirola has six straight Top 20 finishes at Darlington dating back to 2017. 

Sub-$7k Options

• Ryan Preece - Simply a price and starting position play here.
• Ross Chastain - Lots of Xfinity experience here. Don't love the 18th starting position, but everyone else in this range has the same (or even more) risk. Ran really well here in second Xfinity race last Fall.

Bets

• Kurt Busch EV C. Bell
• Reddick +105 C. Bell
• Newman +125 Eric Jones
• Suarez +140 Eric Jones

Not a lot of history to go on here. Before last year, the Trucks had not raced here since 2011. And last year's race was a hotter, day time race whereas Friday's race will be in the cooler evening into the night. The closest comp for this year is probably Atlanta because of how both tracks chew up the tires very quickly. But Atlanta was also a day time race. So really nothing great to go on. It's going to be a bit of a crap shoot.

• Hard not to like John Hunter Nemechek again. He's been the best Truck Series regular throughout the year. He also has several races here in both the Cup Series and Xfinity Series -- so has more track experience then most of this field.
• A harder question is what to do with a second spend up option as between Grant Enfinger, Sheldon Creed and Parker Klingerman.
  • To me, this boils down to whether you want to be a bit more aggressive and play for some potential laps led/fastest laps upside with Creed or be safer with Klingerman. Enfinger is the clear third option in my view. I'm leaning Creed. He ran well at Atlanta, showed some speed last week and also was fast here at Darlington last year. I think this could be a Top 5 truck and could lead laps if Nemechek falters at all. Klingerman is still the much safer play, with a solid floor and fringe Top 10 upside.
• We've got three sub-$7k options in play this week.
  • Ryan Reed starts 19th in the #24 GMS truck. This is the team that had Raphael Lessard for the earlier races this season. Lessard had to bow out of the ride this week because his outside funding dried up. This is Top 10-12 equipment, so we just need Reed to get something close to what the Truck should get to make this work.
  • B.J. McLeod will be in a Reaume truck, so he's going to be pretty slow. But we'll probably have lots of cautions, which could help him hold onto the lead lap. He's a veteran driver that doesn't make a lot of unforced errors starting 39th. A real good mix for cash games.
  • Spencer Boyd is similar. He's unlikely to screw up, but these Young Trucks have been pretty unreliable this year. Don't love this, but he's cheap and offers a safe floor starting 34th.
  • Some may mention Corey Heim in a Kyle Busch truck. He's got some good ARCA results, but I'm not going to use a guy making his first start at a track like Darlington with no practice. No way he is in a cash game lineup for me.
• Mid-rage targets are Bayley Currey, David Gilliland and Timmy Hill.
  • Currey is back in a Niece truck. He ran 12th with this team last week at Kansas. I like the combination of him having some track experience and starting 38th. I could see him finishing around 15th or so. Don't love the price though.
  • Really the same thing with David Gilliland.
  • Timmy Hill back for his regular appearance on my list. He rarely disappoints and is a veteran who is unlikely to screw up. There's not a ton of upside here though for this price. He should be able to get into the Top 20, but I'm not sure how much further he can go.
  • I could possibly see Derrick Kraus here too. He starts 20th and should be able to move up at least 5+ spots from there. But I just don't see him as having enough upside to justify paying $9k. 

Bets

• Ankrum +155 Heim

SATURDAY UPDATE -- A FEW MORE H2H BETS ADDED

There are a number of obvious, chalky plays this week. But it's also hard to fit many of them together in a viable lineup for cash games because there is really only one good play in the sub-$7k range. So that makes lineup building a challenge and it will be interesting to see which ways people go. Here is my Saturday night thought process.

• Lock in Kyle Larson and Austin Cindric.
  • Larson has been a beast at the 1.5 mile tracks this season. The closest comp is Las Vegas, where Larson won the race, led 103 laps and ran 57 fastest laps. At the last 1.5 mile track (Atlanta), Larson finished 2nd, led 269 laps and ran 104 fastest laps. Starting 32nd, he has a super safe floor, huge position difference potential and even the possibility of leading laps and running fastest laps as the race goes on. He should be very popular.
  • Cindric starts 38th and should probably finish in the 15th-25th range. Even at the low end of that range, he would score 30+ DK points and do fine for his modest $6,700 salary. There really aren't any other guys that stand out in this sub-$7k range either. Cindric is easily the best (and likely most popular) play in that range.
• Pick the next two guys in the sub-$7k range that you feel most comfortable with. Here are the likely options.
  • Ross Chastain (24th) - This should be a fringe Top 20 car and it could help that Ross ran (and did well) in the Truck race on Saturday. That could also make him very popular.
  • Chris Buescher (16th) - It seems crazy to think of using him starting 16th, and maybe it is. But it also shows how hard it is to find a decent play in this price range this week. He's finished 19th, 14th and 7th at the 1.5 mile tracks this year, and he's had some good runs at Kansas, so hopefully he can hold this starting spot or move up a couple of places.
  • Daniel Suarez (21st) - They've shown the speed to finish well inside the Top 20 at times this season, but it's been wildly inconsistent -- which you'd expect from a first year team. 15th, 26th, and 17th at the 1.5 mile tracks this year.
  • Chase Briscoe (19th) - This feels like a reach. He can probably hold this starting spot, but this is a tough one to feel good about.
• Pick the two best top tier guys with your remaining salary. Options include:
  • Denny Hamlin (20th) - He's been the most consistent car all year with Top 5 finishes in seven of the eight (non-restictor plate) races -- including 4th at the last two 1.5 mile tracks in Las Vegas and Atlanta. In the last three Kansas races, he has two wins and has led 50+ laps in all three races.
  • Kyle Busch (9th) - It feels criminal to price Kyle Busch at $8,600. I feel like this might be a breakout race (or, more likely, a trap). He starts with pretty good track position, he crushed the field in the Truck race on Saturday (despite multiple untimely cautions), and he's good at restarts which are critical here.
  • Alex Bowman (25th) - The Hendrick cars have been really, really good at the 1.5 mile tracks this year. We documented Larson above. Bowman doesn't have the laps led, but he does have a 9th at Miami and a 3rd at Atlanta.  He's also been strong at Kansas with finishes of 2nd, 11th, 8th and 3rd in the last four races.
  • Joey Logano (29th) - He's a strong play, but I don't have him further up this list because he hasn't been great at the 1.5 mile tracks this year -- with finishes of 25th, 9th and 15th. He did win the last Kansas race, but in the three before that he finished 15th, 17th and 35th.
  • Kurt Busch (28th) - This should be a Top 10-12 car. I don't see almost $2k of difference between Logano and Kurt.

Bets

• Chastain +110 E. Jones
• Suarez +115 E. Jones
• Byron +110 Logano
  
• Dillon +130 Bell
  
• Dillon +115 Kurt Busch
  
• ​Newman +105 Custer