Saturday Night Cup Update:  From an overall approach standpoint, I really don't like the extreme uncertainty we have about how this new package is going to race.  I will be playing a much lighter bankroll this week because I think the chance for chaos is way too high.  I also think we'll see a lot of driver overlap in lineups meaning your outcome is going to come down to the 1 or 2 different drivers in lineups.  Given the chaos theory, I'll be sticking firmly to using only guys starting 20th or worse for cash games.  Here are the guys I'm focusing on right now:

• Denny Hamlin (23rd) -- Won Daytona this year and has finished in the Top 15 the last 5 Talladega races.
• Ryan Newman (24th) -- Finished in the Top 10 in 5 of the last 7 super speedway races.
• Eric Jones (27th) -- 1st, 3rd and 8th place finishes in the last 3 super speedway races.
• Bubba Wallace (28th) -- Top 20 finishes in his 2 Cup Series races at Talladega and Top 20 finishes in 5 of his 6 super speedway races in Cup.
• Ryan Preece (30th) -- 8th at Daytona this year in his lone Cup Series super speedway race.  This team has been very strong at the super speedways for several years now.
• Chris Buescher (31st) -- Top 20 finishes in 3 of the last 4 Talladega races and Top 10 finishes in 3 of the last 4 Daytona races.  As I mentioned with Preece, this team has performed very well at the super speedways for several years.
• Ross Chastain (34th) -- Finished 10th at Daytona this year and has a solid history of bringing the car home in one piece at the super speedways.
• Justin Haley (38th) -- This team is not at all reliable.  But Justin Haley has been really good at the super speedways in the Truck and Xfinity Series.  In 6 super speedway races in those series, he has never finished lower than 18th and he has 3 Top 10 finishes.  If the race turns into a chaotic wreck fest, Haley could turn into a great value if he can avoid the mess.

Back to a super speedway this weekend.  I tend to find those races boring and often stupid.  I don't like the wrecks and think it's dumb that cars get smashed up for being in the wrong place at the wrong time.  But, if done right and with a little luck, there's lots of money to be won in fantasy games at these tracks.  Here are my Cup and Xfinity Series notes heading into the weekend:
Cup Series

• It's a totally new super speedway package this weekend.  The old restrictor plate is being replaced by a tapered spacer.  This will increase the engine horsepower by about 100hp and perhaps allow for some additional driver input and throttle control.  The car will also have a higher spoiler on the rear deck lid, which will increase the turbulence and size of the hole the car punches in the air.  No one really knows how this new package will race.  Some speculation I've heard is that people think it's going to allow trailing cars to get bigger runs on the cars in front of them and be able to close on them from further back.  If so, it should mean lots of passing but also lots of wrecking when late attempts to block a run cause contact.
• For fantasy racing purposes, I'd stick with the general strategy we've always talked about at the super speedways.  Focus on guys with good, reliable teams who are starting further back in the field (i.e., from 20th on back).  Usually there are plenty of those guys to choose from.  This strategy both minimizes risk (because the negative position difference penalty is not as big if your guy gets caught in a wreck) and provides significant upside for positive position difference.
• Don't worry about leaving salary on the table.  If I stick to the right strategy and leave $2,000 salary on the table, I'm fine with that -- even in a cash game.
• Don't focus on traditional dominators to lead laps and get fastest laps.  In the last four races here, no one has ever gotten more than 10 fastest laps in any race.  Typically, we've had a handful of guys run 8-10 fastest laps.  So, at most, we're looking at 4-5 points for that.  For laps led, we've seen Logano and Kurt Busch lead 70 and 100 laps, respectively, in recent races.  But those are so hard to predict and so risky.  Both of them started near the front and carried huge position difference downside if they got caught in a wreck.  Especially with the new package this weekend, I'm very hesitant to try to guess on who might lead the most laps and take that risk.
• I'll update the Cup Series notes Saturday night after qualifying.  That will really narrow down the field of guys in play for fantasy games to about 10-15 guys.

Xfinity

• Everything will happen on a really compressed schedule on Saturday, so I won't have time to update after qualifying.
• We'll be using the same general strategy outlined for the Cup Series -- focus on guys with credible teams starting from 20th on back.  I'd be OK going up to 15th for Xfinity if needed to get guys on quality teams.
• Traditional start and park guys like Jeff Green, Mike Harmon, etc. often attempt to run the full race at super speedways because the draft gives them the speed to actually hang with the pack.  I still wouldn't recommend them for cash games since they still don't have top rate equipment or Cup level pit crews, etc., but they are more viable and tournament options for sure.
• Some of the guys with the best super speedway performance recently:
  • Justin Allgaier -- Top 10 in last three Talladega races and last two Daytona races
  • Bradon Jones -- Top 12 finishes in last 4 super speedway races -- Top 3 finishes in the last two super speedway races
  • Michael Annnett -- Won Daytona to open this year
  • John Hunter Nemechek -- Top 10 both super speedway races in Xfinity Series
  • Noah Gragson -- Finished 4th and 11th in two Xfinity super speedway races
  • Ross Chastain -- Solid record over 3 years at these tracks
  • Ryan Sieg -- Top 6 in last two super speedway races and really fast this year
  • Jeffrey Earnhardt -- Led 29 laps and ran well in season opener at Daytona
  • Jeff Green -- Finished 7th at Daytona this year.  10th and 13th last two Dega races
  • Alex Labbe and Josh Williams -- Solid and cheap, even though salary shouldn't be a huge issue.  This is an under the radar solid team and both cars have sponsorship, so there should be no issue with parking it as has come up when their cars are not sponsored.
• I also like Landon Cassill.  He'll be replacing Ross Chastain in the #4 car this weekend because Ross is moving up to a second Kaulig car.  Cassill hasn't done an Xfinity super speedway race in quite some time, but he has always been solid in those races in the Cup Series and the #4 team is pretty solid as well.

This strikes me as a somewhat tricky slate to figure out which way to go.  The biggest decision from the get go is whether or not to use Kyle Busch.  He won both Richmond races last year and is on a tear in all three national series.  That said, his salary is all the way up to $13K on Draft Kings.  And, he really didn't dominate either of the races here last year -- although that's largely because he started pretty far back both times.  In Spring, he started 32nd and led 32 laps.  In Fall, he started from the rear for unapproved adjustments and climbed through the field to lead 92 laps in the Fall.  So, while he did not lead even one-quarter of the 400 laps run in either race, his wins were both very impressive.  He also was on top of the 10 lap average chart during Friday's lone practice.  With all this background, I'm leaning towards using Kyle because he just seems like a man on a mission right now, but that's not set in stone.

• Other top salary guys to consider -- Kevin Harvick starts from pole.  He's finished in the Top 5 here in 5 of the last 6 races.  Despite starting from the pole in two of those races, though, he didn't really dominate any of them.  He started from pole in the Fall, finished 2nd, led 40 laps and had 34 fastest laps.  That's a good, but not great, day considering the sheer number of laps run in a race here.  Harvick also started from pole in Spring 2016.  That time he finished 5th and led 63 laps.  I'll also give some consideration to Ryan Blaney.  He starts 29th, so offers elite position difference upside.  And, he's finished in the Top 5 in 4 of the last 5 races this season.  However, he's never been very good at Richmond.  In the last 6 races here, his best finish is 18th and he hasn't led a single lap in any of those races.  At his salary, in a race with so many laps being run, I think you need someone with laps led and fastest lap dominator potential, not a guy with +20 position difference potential.  That said, he's probably as safe a play as there is in the field this week.
• I do like several guys in the $8,500-$10,000 tier.  Like last week, I think Martin Truex is under priced at under $10K on Draft Kings.  Although he's never won at a short track, he has led 120 or more laps in 4 of the last 5 races at Richmond.  That's by far the most laps led here over that time period.  In addition, he had a really fast car last week and was climbing through the field until having to pit under green for a tire issue.  I think this team is starting to come around and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him lead 100 or so laps again on Saturday night.  I also like Denny Hamlin and Clint Bowyer.  Both are top tier short track drivers and have good histories here.  Hamlin in particular has a win and 4 Top 5 finishes in the last 5 races here.
• Aric Almirola at $7,700 is also someone to consider.  He finished 5th here in the Fall last season and has always run solid here -- even during his time at Richard Petty Motorsports.  Prior to getting wrecked out at Bristol, Almirola had 6 straight finishes in the Top 9, so this team is performing at a high level.  
• On the salary saver end of things, Ryan Newman (starting 31st, $6,900 DK) and Ty Dillon (starting 30th, $6,100 DK) will likely be highly owned.  Both offer decent upside.  Ty is running as well as he ever has of late with 3 Top 15 finishes in the last 5 races.  He's never been great here, but still offers decent value if he can simply finish in the 20th-25th range.  Newman is also running well right now, having finished 11th and 9th the last two weeks.  He's usually solid at this type of flatter track and he actually had two Top 10 finishes at Richmond just two seasons ago in 2017.  Starting 31st, he offers nothing but upside at a reasonable salary.  I really don't like anyone cheaper than this, but you may have to grab someone like Cassill or McDowell to make the salaries work.

A very compressed Xfinity schedule this week with everything on Friday -- one practice, qualifying and the race all in one day.  Here are my drivers of note heading into Friday:

• Christopher Bell -- It's hard to imagine the scenario for not using him in cash games on Friday.  He won both races here last year, including the Fall race with Dale Earnhardt Jr. running.  In the Spring (with no Cup drivers just like this week), Bell led 120 of 250 laps and had the most fastest laps with 46.  Bell was also tops of Xfinity regulars in the Fall race with 67 laps led and 29 fastest laps.  I expect him to start up front and be a dominator on Friday.
• I really like Noah Gragson at $8,100.  He ran here last Spring, started 11th and finished 2nd to Bell.  Even more impressive, he was second to Bell with 32 fastest laps.  None of the other Xfinity "stars" has a real great record at Richmond, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Gragson grab a Top 5 or even Top 3 finish here.  
• I have some interest in Elliott Sadler at $9,200.  This was one of his better tracks and that's why he's coming out of retirement to do a race here this week.  He's finished between 3rd and 7th in the last 6 races here.  But he's taking a step down from JR Motorsports to Kaulig Racing for this one and he's been out of the car all year so far.  There will probably end up being better options, but he is on the radar heading into Friday because of his experience and consistency here.
• Kaz Grala, Reily Herbst and Zane Smith could be values in the $7,300 - $7,900 range.  Each is running for a top notch team and will be in good equipment with a good crew.  Herbst started 9th and finished 6th in a one off race at Iowa last year.  That's not quite Richmond but shares some similarities in that it's a shorter, flatter track.  Each could be an option depending on starting spot.  Grala will be in RCR equipment for the 2nd time this season.  (Herbst will probably hope Hannah Newhouse isn't covering the race on radio this Friday after their pretty entertaining dust up last weekend.  Google it.)
• Jeremy Clements is too cheap at $6,700.  He's finished in the Top 17 in the last 5 races here -- with a high of 8th last Spring.  He also has Top 15 finishes in 4 of the last 5 races this season.  I'd grab him as long as his starting spot doesn't end up in the Top 15 or so.
• Josh Williams and Brandon Brown -- a word of caution on these two guys.  I normally like these guys and use them often.  They make me nervous this week because neither is running with their regular team.  Josh is normally in the top DGM car, but he'll be down in an extra 3rd car they are running this week.  He is also without sponsorship as of the latest entry list.  Brown usually runs with his family owned #86 team, but that seat was apparently sold to Mason Diaz to get some sponsorship money this weekend.  So Brown shifted over to the #93 (of RSS Racing normally run by Josh Bilicki) in order to keep his eligibility for the playoffs.  I don't believe there is outside sponsorship there either.  So I suspect both guys will be on a very tight budget this weekend.  They won't practice much to avoid tearing up their equipment and it's possible they even park at some point in time during the race.  I would use them with extreme caution and only after watching their Twitter feeds for positive clues that they intend to run the whole race.
• I don't really like any of the salary savers this weekend because there's so much uncertainty.  But you'll probably need one or two depending on your approach.  I'd focus on Timmy Hill, Joey Gase and Chad Finchum.

500 laps means a ton of fastest lap and laps led points will be available this week.  You'll need to focus on those dominators in order to bring home a Fantasy Nascar victory on Sunday.

• For the $8,900 price, I like Chase Elliott starting from pole.  The pole sitter has led at least 100 laps in 3 of the last 4 races here and 200+ laps in 2 of the last 4.  Chase started 2nd and led 112 laps last Fall, so he knows what to do starting up front.
• I also really like Ryan Blaney's dominator potential from the #3 starting spot.  Last Spring he had a rocket ship here and led 100 laps early before getting collected in an incident he had no chance of avoiding.  In the Fall, he returned with great speed and led 121 laps.  I can easily see 100+ laps led again with a Top 5/10 finish.
• I can also see using Kyle Busch (although the price is really up there), Kurt Busch (for the position difference potential) or Kevin Harvick (topped all the longer run speed charts in practice).
• I'm also looking to grab Kyle Larson and possibly Martin Truex.  Larson has led 200+ laps in the last 2 Spring races here.  He finished 2nd in both races here last year and has 4 straight Top 10 finishes here.  Truex hasn't been great here, but he offers position difference upside and is just too cheap at a sub-$10K price in my view. 
• Ty Dillon, Chastain, LaJoie, Tifft and Cassill offer pretty decent salary saver/punt options for two of your lineup spots.  I do think it's best to use 2 punt plays this week to squeeze in 4 potential dominator types given the need to accumulate laps led and fastest laps points this week. 

There will be 300 laps of Xfinity Series madness at Bristol on Saturday.  I'm going about a lineup backwards at this time.  Here's the way I'm building things up pending qualifying results in the morning:

• I think both DGM Racing cars are crazily under priced.  Alex Labbe was Top 10 in final practice.  He finished 11th and 23rd here in the two races last year.  Lock him in for $6,100.  Josh Williams has been pretty strong this year and has decent finishes here in the past.  He ran 21st in final practice.  At his $5,600 price, he's much more reliable then anyone else in that price range.
• Other sub $6,500 guys I'll consider depending on qualifying are (in order of preference) Chad Finchum, Timmy Hill and maybe Tommy Joe Martins.
• If you lock in three of those guys, you can then grab your top two dominator targets.  I really like Justin Allgaier.  He was solid throughout practice and has finished in the Top 5 in 5 of the last 6 races here.  He's also led the most laps among Xfinity regulars in the last few races here.  Most of those races featured a dominator from the Cup Series which we will not have Saturday.
  
• Other dominators to consider -- Christopher Bell (great at short tracks but seemed to struggle in practice today), Cole Custer (fastest in final practice, but not a great history here), Tyler Reddick (I like his chances, but he's really priced up at $12,200) and Brandon Jones (led 106 laps here last Spring).
• That will leave you with about $8K left to close out the roster with someone like Michael Annett, Ryan Sieg or Ross Chastain -- all solid options in my mind.