Gateway / Portland

Didn't have time to write up Xfinity or Trucks, but I'll have my Cup thoughts up Saturday night.

Cup Series
Here are some notes and my top targets for Sunday:

• You're going to want to consider pit crews and timing this week. On track passing is expected to be difficult, so gaining ground (or at least not losing it) on pit road is going to be key.
• Joey Logano - He was atop the practice leaderboard with the top times in 10 lap and 15 lap average -- both by about .1 second per lap faster then his teammate Ryan Blaney. Fords overall seemed to bring a really fast setup into the weekend. I really like Blaney too, but prefer Logano because he was faster in practice, has a better place differential potential and has the faster pit crew.
• Chase Elliott - If you buy into the comparison to Phoenix (which I do think is the best comp), you've got to give Elliott a long look. He's been amazing there, including earlier this year when he started 19th, but still led 50 laps and ran 36 fastest laps. He was just average in practice that weekend too, so his average times this weekend don't scare me too much. He also has a really strong pit crew. And, at the three flat tracks this season, he's been in the Top 3 for overall green flag speed each race.
• Chase Briscoe - Going back to Phoenix, Briscoe won there and it was no fluke. He's only $7,800 too, so he doesn't have to lead a ton of laps or run too many fastest laps to make this work as long as he finishes near the front. He has a really high ceiling, but carries a good deal of risk -- particularly if we see a lot of early cautions.
• William Byron - He's led laps at all the flat tracks this year and arguably had the best car in the last two such races. His crew chief Rudy Fugle also has a ton of experience at this track from his long time work in the Trucks Series for KBM. Starting 24th with race winning upside is an awfully hard combination to pass up.
• Ross Chastain - At this point, you have to consider him every week. He's been fast everywhere, including Phoenix this year where he finished 2nd and had 17 fastest laps. He did a long run in practice -- which is rare for him this season -- and didn't show much fall off over a long run. He also has Trucks Series experience -- including a race win in 2019 -- at this track.
• Kyle Busch - Nothing stands out here, but Busch tends to race better the more practice he gets and he has the best pit crew statistically this season. Starting 12th, he has a really high ceiling if it all clicks.
• Austin Dillon - Starts 29th, but has had decent results and speed at the flat tracks this season. 17th or better gets us that 5x return we're looking for. Also a Top 10 pit crew to help gain a few spots on pit road.
• Brad Keselowski - Starts 30th in a similar situation to Dillon. Hasn't had quite the speed at flat tracks (or anywhere) this season, but you'd think a Top 20 is a realistic outcome. At $7,100, it's not a bad deal.
• A.J. Allmendinger - Some concern that the start of the race will be his first time in the car this weekend. But Justin Haley has some good experience here, so the team should have enough to go on to have a decent setup. AJ finished 20th at Phoenix earlier this year and has a real safe floor starting 35th.
• Ty Dillon or Zane Smith - Both potentially in play if you need to save a few hundred bucks. I wouldn't use anyone else in the sub-$6k range.