[There's obviously a lot of serious and dangerous stuff happening all over right now. I'm not going to comment on any of it here because this just isn't the right place. NASCAR and sports in general are a release and distraction for many people and that's how I intend to keep it here.]

It was a really good result in the Cup Series race on Sunday. 3 for 3 on my H2H bets and my cash lineup came through despite Kevin Harvick disappointing. It was ugly and the chaos at the end really helped, but it was still a clean win. On to the Xfinity Series race on Monday night.

​If you thought the Cup Series race was crazy, just wait for this Xfinity race. Three of the last four Xfinity races at Bristol have been complete chaos:

• Fall 2019 -- 9 cautions with 16 of 38 cars finishing 25+ laps down
• Fall 2018 -- 8 cautions with 13 of 40 cars finishing 25+ laps down
• Spring 2018 -- 12 cautions with 14 of 40 cars finishing 25+ laps down

These are approaching super speedway levels of mayhem, so I'm looking to play a more conservative lineup on Monday night in cash games.

At the top, I think you want to think about using two of the three most expensive drivers -- Chase Briscoe, Justin Allgaier and AJ Allmendinger.

• Briscoe has been the class of the Xfinity field this year. And he ran very well at Bristol last year, finishing 2nd and 4th. He doesn't have the laps led/fastest laps history of Allgaier, but all signs point to him getting a good chunk of those dominator points on Monday. He offers bonus position difference upside starting 11th as well.
• Allgaier has been excellent here as well -- leading 100+ laps in both races last year. If he hadn't run into late race trouble in both races, his performance would be even more impressive. He also offers position difference upside starting 10th.
• Allmendinger starts 27th so offers a really high floor with +20 position difference upside. In a race that could get really wild, that's very valuable. I'd be surprised if he leads laps or runs a lot of fastest laps though. He doesn't have the dominator ceiling of Briscoe or Allgaier, but he has a higher floor then both of them.

Beyond those guys, I'm focused on veteran drivers or drivers with good teams starting from 20th on back. As for the guys starting 1st-9th, I'm really not interested in a cash game setting because I don't have a real good idea what to expect from them. In most cases they're either very young with limited Bristol experience or are not in the very top level equipment. I also think that Briscoe and/or Allgaier will be doing most of the dominating, which really limits everyone else's upside. So let's talk about a few guys who fit my more conservative profile:

• Alex Labbe - I really like him. Great floor starting 32nd with +20 position difference upside.
• Jeremy Clements - About the same as Labbe, but starting 29th. He's finished 4th, 13th and 13th in the last three races here and he's finished in the Top 18 in five of the last six here. But the one other race was a 40th place disaster, so there's no guaranty.
• Josh Williams - Rolls off 23rd and is a favorite mid-priced guy for a lot of people because of his consistency. He's finished between 10th - 16th in all five races since Daytona this season.
• Brandon Brown - This is a pretty good low floor play with Brown starting 21st. He's finished in the Top 13 in four of the five races since Daytona this year. He doesn't have great results in his three Bristol races, but he did finish 12th here last Fall. Very similar profile to Josh Williams.
• Tommy Joe Martins - He starts 35th, so offers a lot of upside. But he can be aggressive and risky because it's a very small team.
• Myatt Snider - $7k is still too cheap for the 21 Richard Childress car. Myatt starts 22nd and this should easily be Top 10 equipment, so we just need Myatt to keep it clean. He raced Bristol once previously in the Trucks Series and had a mechanical failure.
• Joe Graf - Don't love this, but he's starting 36th so really can only go up. And he's in pretty reliable equipment for SS Green Light. It's not top level stuff, but it's not at risk of falling apart either. The SS Green Light cars finished in the Top 16 in all four of their Bristol efforts last season. I don't believe Graf has any Bristol experience.
• Timmy Hill - Timmy's in the #61 this week, which tends to be the best car that MBM puts on the track because they have outside support for this car. In fact, Timmy finished 7th in this #61 car last Fall at Bristol. He was 17th in the Spring race in the #66 MBM car. I think he can finish inside the Top 20 again and I like his experience and bargain salary here. Even so, there's always a risk with MBM equipment. He should be very heavily owned.
• B.J. McLeod - Similar to Timmy Hill. B.J. is in the #6, which can finish about 20th most weeks.  BJ has finished in the Top 20 in three of the last four Bristol races and has a ton of experience here compared to the rest of the field.
• Ronnie Bassett - A lot of people played his brother last week for the cheap salary and it paid off. I don't like it here because he's starting 19th and that's too risky for this profile. His good, Top 20 finishes have been at longer tracks like Texas and Indianapolis. He did race at Bristol and somewhat similar Dover last season, but finished 33rd at Bristol and 25th at Dover. Hill and McLeod are much safer plays and I'd leave Bassett for tournaments situations where you need the extra savings.

Only a few bets I'm on right now. Haven't seen much posted:

• Chase Briscoe +275 to win
• Justin Haley +110 Riley Herbst

Looking forward to Bristol on Sunday. Bets did pretty well in the Charlotte 2 race. Fantasy was a slight loss with Bowman running into the wall. Bristol stuff coming by Saturday night. 

Sunday Update
Two early competition cautions is bad for Brad Keselowski as it increases the risk he doesn't lead enough and/or gets shuffled back in the pack. Makes the position difference guys a bit more interesting.

Saturday Night
Here we go. At last, the weather looks great for 500 laps at Bristol on Sunday. With the increased number of laps, we increase the laps led and fastest laps points and also the multiples we are looking for from our drivers. Whereas we usually look for a 5x return on salary, we're looking for something more in the 6x-7x return at Bristol. We also have to consider the increased risks at Bristol. The track is so short that leaders can very easily get caught up in wrecks like happened with Ryan Blaney two years ago. And any mistakes on pit road are magnified. If you get a penalty on a green flag stop, you're going multiple laps down. Same for a loose wheel.

I'm going to talk about a few key decision points that will really dictate where your roster goes in a cash game setting.

• (1) Do I pay up for Jimmie Johnson and/or Clint Bowyer with their relatively safe floor and position difference upside? I don't think that's the best use of salary. No doubt they both have Top 10 potential. And this is one of Clint's best race tracks. However, we also have a number of competent drivers starting much further back in the field that offer a lot of position difference upside at a much cheaper salary. Guys like Bubba Wallace, Christopher Bell, Ty Dillon and Ryan Preece all offer Top 20-25 and +10 position difference upside. Another problem you could run into when using Johnson and/or Bowyer is that it really limits your ability to get two dominators in your lineup who you expect to lead laps and run fastest laps. Now, taking this type of more conservative approach did work in the last race at Charlotte. So, if you want to play it real safe, it could work. But, with the sheer number of laps led and fastest laps points out there, it's hard to see a play it safe approach where you roster only one dominator working this week unless you happen to hit on the dominator who really smashes and leads for several hundred laps.
• (2) Do I take Keselowski starting from pole? For this one, I'm saying yes. For one thing, the salary of $9,100 is very reasonable. He's very likely to lead laps and run fastest laps at the beginning of the race. He is usually fast at Bristol - although he has run into a few issues there in recent years that have resulted in poor finishes despite having a good car. And, it's worth remembering he had one of, if not the, best car at Phoenix earlier this year. That track is much different, but it is the one and only time this year the teams have run the lower down force and higher HP package they'll be running at Bristol on Sunday.

Where you go with those two decisions is going to drive a lot of what you can do with the rest of your roster. A few other points of note:

• Eric Jones is just too cheap. This is a top end Joe Gibbs Racing car for $7k. It's just a bad pricing error. Eric has led laps and run fastest laps here in the very same car. And he's got position difference upside from 15th. Even if he just moved up to 12th place, that would be a minimum of 35 points plus whatever fastest laps he might get. Barring some issue, it's very likely he pays off this salary and he's got the potential to 8X or 9x it.
• On the real high end of things, it's a struggle to make a decision if you want to take Kyle Busch or Kevin Harvick. No doubt that Kyle has been awesome at Bristol in the past. But he's also been awesome at Charlotte in the past and he was a real disappointment there the last two races. The same is true of Phoenix. He's been a beast there the last three seasons, but he was off and didn't lead a lap there in Spring. I'll repeat something I said before Charlotte -- Kyle has not led a single lap in the seven races since Daytona and he's only run a total of 40 fastest laps in those races. So you're talking about a grand total of 20 dominator points over the course of seven races. Something is off and they haven't fixed it yet. On the flip side, Harvick has been awesome this year. He was very good in this race package at Phoenix earlier this year. And he has historically been very solid at Bristol. While it should surprise no one if Kyle busts out on Sunday, Kevin is the safer play right now. 

Here are a few bets I'm playing this weekend. Not all that much that I like.

• Keselowski +250 Kyle Busch
• Newman +160 Kenseth
• A. Dillon +130 Newman
• Kurt Busch +1800 to win

Wednesday Afternoon: Added a few bets at the very bottom

It was quite obvious that Chase Elliott, Martin Truex and Alex Bowman had the three best cars Sunday night at Charlotte. They ranked 1, 2, 3 in green flag speed during the race -- and they are also the top three on the green flag speed chart for the entire season. For Charlotte Part Two on Wednesday night, you can get Elliott and Truex for under $10k on Draft Kings and Bowman for under $9k. Elliott and Truex both bring +15 position difference and race winning/Dominator upside. And Bowman is a strong candidate to lead early laps as he'll be starting in the clean air of the front row.

Or you can go the straight position difference upside route with guys like Jimmie Johnson (starting 40th), Clint Bowyer (39th) and Denny Hamlin (29th). All of these guys have +25 position difference upside. However, we saw how hard it was to run in the dirty air back in the field on Sunday night, so I'm not sure they have much chance of getting to the front at any point in this much shorter race. And they each cost over $11k. To be sure, the floor is higher, but the realistic ceiling is capped as well. I do think Johnson will have very heavy ownership and, barring an incident, he's a lock for 50 points with an upside in the low 70s. It's certainly risky to fade that kind of profile and I can't fault anyone for just going with it in a cash game setting. 

One problem I'm running into with Johnson/Bowyer/Hamlin combinations is how hard it is to complete the roster. There really aren't any good salary savers on this slate. Under $7k, we've got the Ty Dillon, Daniel Suarez, Ryan Preece trio from $6,000 - $6,300. All of them should be able to hold at or near their starting spot, but they are not getting you anything more then maybe a +1 or +2 position difference. And the downside is real as all of them have consistency and/or reliability concerns. Aside from them, we're down to true punt plays like Quin Houff or Joey Gase. I've used guys like this on rare occasion in cash games, but it's come back to bite me more often then not.

I'm still studying things but, as of now, I like the idea of building a more balanced lineup and not trying to cram in the highest price position difference guys.

Bets
A few I've played so far--

• Byron +2000 to win
• Blaney +1700 to win
• Blaney EV Logano 
• Blaney EV Hamlin

Added Wednesday afternoon--

• Blaney -105 Johnson 
• Blaney +225 Top 5
• Ty Dillion +270 to win Group F - Ty, Preece, McDowell, Bubba
• Jimmie Johnson -175 will NOT finish in the Top 5
• Almirola -110 Kenseth
  

The biggest lineup question is what to do with Kyle Busch and his $15,000 salary. The easy and correct answer is play him. He's actually still under priced by a lot.

In his last six Trucks races (5 last year and 1 earlier this year), Kyle won all six races, led an average of 106 laps, ran an average of 58 fastest laps and scored an average of 103 Draft Kings points. So Kyle is averaging a 6.8x return on his salary -- which puts him way above the 5x return we are really looking for. Simply put, he's still very under priced and really carries a salary value of $20,000 or more.

Is there any argument to not use him? Yes. There are a few things to have some concern about.

• (1) Chase Elliott is in this race as part of the "bounty" Kevin Harvick threw out there for a Cup regular to beat Kyle in a Trucks race. And Kyle just accidentally wrecked Chase earlier this week when Chase may have been in position to win at Darlington. Could Chase decide this is the right time to even the score? Possibly, but he would have to get close enough to hit him and I don't think he will. To a lesser extent I've got some concern about Ross Chastain. He an Busch raced each other hard in the Xfinity race on Monday night. I will be very nervous when Kyle is around Chastain in the Trucks race.
• (2) There are a lot of inexperienced and marginal drivers in the field. They do stupid things sometimes and you never know who might get collected when they do stupid things. Plus this is the first Trucks race since March and many of these guys haven't been on track since then. So it might get dicey at times -- think end of the Xfinity race. But, this is always a risk and totally out of our control. It can impact Busch just as easily as it can impact the alternates we would build around like Elliott, Chastain or Brett Moffitt.

Simply put, the risk of fading Busch and hoping he gets unlucky is much greater than the risk of actually using him.

Where to go with the rest of your roster? There are two approaches.

First, you can spend up for another top tier guy like Brett Moffitt or Ross Chastain -- both of whom should finish in or near the Top 10 with +15 position difference. But that leaves you with only about $6k per driver for your last four spots and you're really going to need a few inexperienced drivers on underfunded teams to come through for you in that scenario. I respect what they're trying to do, but I'd rather not risk my cash game money on guys like Bryan Dauzat and Codie Rohrbaugh.

Second, my preferred approach, is to go down the salary schedule a bit and build a well rounded team with guys on strong teams (GMS, Niece and DGR-Crosley) and guys on under funded teams who already have raced in the Cup Series or Xfinity Series in the last two weeks. I think that's the safest way to approach things in setting the highest floor while still having a similar upside to the Busch + Moffitt/Chastain build.

Hey guys, with so many races in a short time, I'm not doing a write up on Xfinity. I am playing Kyle Busch though. Lots of paths to him hitting value in a 200 lap race.

I will have a Trucks write up posted real late Monday night.

Sunday

I'm interest in a few new bets I've seen posted. Truex odds are moving big time to where it's no longer a good play.

• Almirola +150 E. Jones
• Newman +160 Kenseth
• DiBenedetto +110 A. Dillon

Saturday Night Updates Are Below In Bold

I'll be adding more notes on Saturday, but here's where I'm at on Friday night:

Qualifying for Sunday's race will take place a few hours before the race begins, so I won't be able to provide a detailed analysis based on starting position, etc. And that's a huge factor in choosing the right plays in any format -- but especially cash games. So I'm going to talk first about approach and lineup concepts and then move on to some specific driver targets. Some of the guys I talk about here are going to end up being bad plays based on their starting spot, and others I don't mention might be great plays based on their starting spot. You'll need to pay attention Sunday afternoon and update your lineups accordingly.

According to Bob Pockrass, the inspection process will take place before qualifying, so we should not see any post-qualifying penalties causing cars to start in the back. Because of that, cars won't be able to change set ups after qualifying. They will race in the set up they qualify in. So it's very possible we see cars that do not qualify well moving forward during the race because they were set up for longer race runs at the expense of single lap speed during the qualifying run.

General Coke 600 Approach

• This is by far NASCAR's longest race. With 400 laps, we have a boatload of fastest laps and laps led points to be earned.
• In the last five Coke 600 races, we've seen two Dominators earn the bulk of those points and separate themselves by scoring about 20 points more than the rest of the field. In the past three Coke 600 races, the two Dominators have been the exact same drivers --  Martin Truex and Kyle Busch.
  • In 2019, Truex had 129.5 DK points, Busch had 86.75 DK points and the next closest was Chase Elliott at 68.75.
  • In 2018, it was Busch with 209.75 points, Truex with 73 points and the next closest was Jimmie Johnson with 60.
  • In 2017, Truex had 148.75, Busch had 91.25 and the next closest was Austin Dillon at 68.5.
• Martin Truex really, really stands out. In the last five Coke 600s, he has been the top DK scorer four times and the 2nd best DK scorer in the other race. His scores the last five years are 129.5, 73, 148.75, 197 and 107.75. Amazing. He does have a new crew chief this year, so that's something to consider, but he's still a top candidate to dominate once again. Also of note is that Truex has started this race 14th, 15th and 8th the last three years. So he does not need a Top 5 qualifying spot to be a laps led and fastest laps Dominator. The last time he did qualify well for this race was in 2016 when he was on the pole. He went on to lead 392 of the 400 laps and score 106 fastest laps for a total of 197 DK points.
• That said, the pole sitter is not necessarily a top Dominator. In the past five Coke 600s, the pole sitter has had a Top 5 DK score only two times. Coincidentally, those two times were in 2018 when Kyle Busch was on the pole and 2016 when Martin Truex was on the pole. In the three most recent Coke 600s when someone else had the pole position, that driver was not even in the Top 5 DK scorers in the race.

Top Tier (Over $10k) - more notes to follow on Saturday
Honestly, anyone in this tier is playable. It all depends on starting spot and the type of Dominator and/or position difference upside they offer. Here are my top choices without considering starting spot.

• Martin Truex -- I already made the clear case for Truex above. He's going to be near impossible to fade in this race. He seemed to get better at Darlington and had a really good car in cooler, nighttime conditions which we'll see a lot of in this race. 
• Kyle Busch -- His track history says you have to take him, but his recent performance says no way. It's shocking to see, but since Kyle led 14 laps at Daytona, he has not led a single lap the rest of the season. That's five straight races without a lap led. And, during those five races, he's only run a total of 27 fastest laps. So that's a grand total of 13.5 DK points in a five race span. Now, some of this might have to do with poor starting spots. The two times he would have started up front (1st at Vegas and 4th at Darlington) he got hit with penalties and had to start in the rear. Even so, we expect to see Kyle up front leading laps and running fastest laps almost every week. And we need that to win at Charlotte. That's not to say you shouldn't use him -- only that I've got a high level of concern about whether he can match his past performance at this track.
• Kevin Harvick -- Kevin and his team have done a really good job of getting him out front and running very strong in clean air. He has struggled somewhat when he gets shuffled back and has to move through the field. But there's no doubt this is one of the strongest teams right now. But Charlotte has not been a great track for Kevin over the last five years. He does have one dominating performance in Fall 2017, when he led 149 laps, had 86 fastest laps and scored 121.25 DK points. His last three Coke 600 performances have been disappointing though. So this is like the reverse of Kyle Busch. Kyle has great track history but not recent performance this season. Kevin has great recent performance this season but only decent track history. 

Upper Mid Tier ($8-10k) - more notes to follow on Saturday
Like the Top Tier, anyone in this tier is playable. It all depends on starting spot and the type of Dominator and/or position difference upside they offer. Here are my top choices without considering starting spot.

• Chase Elliott -- He's badly under priced at under $10k. Chase has been very strong at the 1.5 mile tracks of late. He easily could have won Vegas and was the fastest car there before he got a flat tire and other damage. He also easily could have won Darlington 2 on Wednesday night until he was wrecked by Kyle Busch. In his other three races this year, he's finished 4th, 7th and 4th. So we're under $10k for a guy who was performing well enough to have four Top 5s and perhaps multiple wins. Chase was 4th in this race last year, led laps 43 laps and ran 20 fastest laps for a total of 68.75 DK points.
• Alex Bowman -- Bowman has also been very strong at the 1.5 mile tracks dating back to last year. He dominated the race earlier this year at California and arguably had the best car at Darlington last Sunday. He's had very strong results in the last two Coke 600 races, with 9th and 7th place finishes -- although he didn't lead many laps or run many fastest laps in those races. Before qualifying, I like Elliott better, but I also think Bowman is under priced at $9,400.   
• Jimmie Johnson -- He's been really consistent at Charlotte and the 600. He's finished 5th and 8th in this race the last two years. In 2017, he had led a bunch of laps heading to the end of the race but came up a few laps short of winning the race on a fuel saving strategy. (That was the race Austin Dillon won running in the same fuel save mode.) Jimmie's also run well this year. He obviously had a good car last Sunday at Darlington when he wrecked from the lead. He has three other Top 8 finishes already this season. My only concern is whether he can lead laps or run enough fastest laps to pay off a $9k+ salary. 
• Ryan Blaney -- He's just too cheap. He hasn't been real good at Charlotte and he struggled at Darlington, but this is a very good driver with a championship level team in Penske. He should not be all the way down at $8,100. And we can't forget that he had really, really good race cars at Las Vegas and California earlier this year. He led a total of 73 laps and ran 56 fastest laps in those two races combined.

Lower Mid Tier ($6-8k)

• Ryan Newman might end up really under priced at $6,500. I think you can safely project a finish in the 18th-20th range. My only concern is how hard he makes himself to pass. Over 600 miles, it can be enough to really upset some people and cause problems.
• Chris Buescher at $6,700 also looks good, although his Darlington performance this week raises some red flags. He has a remarkably consistent record over the last year at 1.5 mile tracks, though, and I think it's most likely he returns to that form at a more conventional track like Charlotte. He finished 6th in The 600 last year, but expect something more in the 18th-20th range. He has finished in the Top 20 in four of the last five 600s.
• Matt DiBenedetto at $7,200 is in play. It all depends on starting spot. I'd hope for a 12th-15th place finish. So if he's starting outside the Top 20, it would become real tempting.
• Aric Almirola at $7,500 looks good too. He's finished 13th and 11th here the last two years. It's rare to get a guy from a top team like SHR for under $8k. All depends on the starting spot.
• Matt Kenseth is might end up too expensive to make sense. But, if he's starting farther back, I could see using him because of his experience in this marathon race and the fact that he usually doesn't do stupid stuff. But, given his time away from racing, I am concerned about the ability of his team to keep up with the massive changes to the track that we'll see over the 600 miles.
• Guys like Tyler Reddick, Austin Dillon, Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell, Cole Custer and John Hunter Nemechek are all possible -- but only if starting way back. They are all just too risky for my liking without that.

Salary Saver Tier (Under $6K)

• I'm looking at the Bubba Wallace, Ty Dillon and Michael McDowell tier here from $5,900-$5,600. They've all been pretty solid this year and I'd probably rank them in that order as far as how comfortable I would be to use them. Base this play off the starting spots.
• You could possibly slide down to LaJoie at $5,400, but the performance has been off a bit so far this year. He's had some success in The 600, though, including a really impressive 12th place finish with the same team last year. But don't expect anything better then about a 28th place finish.

Bets
Only one bet so far. Not a lot posted yet on the sites I use.

• Hamlin +327 to win Group B (Bowman, Logano, Keselowski and Hamlin)

I'm not loving many bets this week. The head to heads I've seen posted seem pretty fairly priced to me. I do see Truex as a slight underdog in some matchups (like vs. Kyle Busch), so I'm monitoring those and may jump.

The inverted starting order makes this a very odd cash game slate. We don't have expected dominators starting up front. And we don't really have any good value plays starting further back. What we've got is a pack of guys starting 13-20 that will probably have some of the best cars and lead a bunch of laps or run a bunch of fastest laps. And then we've got another group starting way back that has huge position difference upside. The names here are pretty obvious. The bigger question is how to combine them to make the best lineup. For cash games, here's what I'm thinking right now:

• You have to roll with William Byron and Jimmie Johnson. Both of these guys had great cars on Sunday and they are locks for the Top 20 and +20 position difference. Even if they only got to around 18th, we'd be getting 45 points which will 5x their respective salaries of $8,900 for Byron and $9,100 for Johnson. And there's real potential for Top 10 finishes, which raises the ceiling to 55 points or more even without adding in any laps led or fastest laps. In a cash game setting, we just can't ignore quality drivers on a top team with this kind of high floor and high ceiling as well. The price is also very reasonable for what they offer.
• I'd normally say Chris Buescher and Rickey Stenhouse are locks as well. They both struggled mightily on Sunday, but have good rides and should be better in this race. We won't go too crazy, but even a finish of about 22nd-24th puts them on pace to score 35-40 points and will have them pretty close to a 5x return. Of the two, I'm shocked and nervous to be leaning toward Stenhouse. He's a bit cheaper and literally can only go up from his dead last starting spot. Buescher was really off the pace on Sunday even before he got spun around by Christopher Bell, which put him several laps down. It was really strange to see that given his excellent and consistent history at Darlington and 1.5 mile tracks. 
• Christopher Bell is an option if you want to drop down and save salary off of either or both of Buescher or Stenhouse. He should finish better then 24th, but he's probably too expensive for what he offers. The only other viable value option is probably Corey LaJoie at $5,500. I'm not expecting all that much from him, but would hope he can get you 20-25 points.
• Now what to do with the glob from 13-20 and Kyle Busch? Of the group, I really like Alex Bowman for the best combination of salary and recent performance. We all saw Kevin Harvick win and look really good on Sunday, but a lot of that came from clean air and having the #1 pit box. He'll have the same pit box in this race, but I don't think his car will be as strong in traffic and I'm not sure when/if he'll ever be able to grab the lead and run out front. I really think Bowman had as good of, if not the better, car Sunday. I like the $1,600 discount off Harvick and the high floor considering Bowman starts 19th but should finish in or near the Top 5.
  • Kyle Busch also has a huge ceiling. But you really have to compromise the rest of your roster to fit in his salary. That's where the lack of decent salary savers this week really makes an impact. I'm not saying either Harvick or Busch is a bad play in cash games, but I'm planning to go a different route as of now.
  • I think Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex are probably too risky for cash games, especially considering how inconsistent they have been so far this season.
  • Chase Elliott deserves some consideration as well. He seemed to get better as the race went on Sunday, the Hendrick team as a whole had the best overall speed and he has a very good pit crew -- which is where a lot of spots are gained at Darlington. While I think Chase will have a Top 5-8 car, I'm not sure he can offer the laps led or fastest laps that we'd hope for with a $10k+ salary.
• Kurt Busch is another great option once again at a reasonable price.
• I really like Truex in tournaments. He's been off this year and almost got lapped in Stage 1 on Sunday. But his car seemed to come alive in the second half of the race on Sunday. By the end of the race, he had the best long run speed of any one out there. If he can break out here it would bust the slate open since he has position difference upside as well. Until we see it in a race, though, I think it's too risky for a cash game.

Here are some bets I've placed. I did some pretty big long shots, so obviously only putting down a small amount on those. I like some long shots better than normal for these races because of the rain. We could have a shortened race with some kind of oddball finish. And all the guys I'm taking a chance on had good speed Sunday or have shown good/race winning speed this season. So they should be able to hang around the lead and hope for some good luck at the end.

• Bowman +115 Kyle Busch
• Bowman -120 Keselowski
• Bowyer +105 DiBenedetto
• Bowyer +145 Kenseth
• Preece +130 Buescher
• Newman +155 Kenseth
• Truex +330 Group A
• Jones +300 Group C
• Bowyer +329 Group D
• J.H. Nemechek +408 Group E
• Bowyer +6600 to win
• Xfinity -- added Harrison Burton +1370 to win
• Xfinity -- added Brandon Jones +1600 to win

I missed on Harvick in the first Cup Series race, so that was a tough one. I'll have Xfinity stuff up real late Monday night so you'll have plenty of time to finalize your lineups on Tuesday before the race at 8 pm Eastern time. NOTE: New race time is 6pm Eastern to increase the chance they can dodge the rain and get the race completed.
​
Bets

• Alfredo +155 over Annett
• Jones +100 over Allgaier
• Jones -115 over Chastain
• Gragson +105 over Allgaier
• Gragson -105 over Chastain
• Gragson Ev over Herbst (played before qualifying draw)

Monday Night Update 
The big question to start with is whether to use Kyle Busch. For cash games, I say absolutely yes. He's expensive for sure, but there's a clear path for him hitting a 5x or 6x return on that salary. And we have a number of good value plays to round out a credible lineup. Kyle has a very good chance to break this slate and it's a big risk to not use him. I think he'll be heavily owned in all formats so you're banking on the best driver in the field failing if you're hoping to win without him.

Let's run though how he can realistically hit 5x or 6x his salary -- which would be 80-96 points. Let's start with finishing position and position difference. Unless the car breaks, he's going to finish in the Top 3. Even at third place, he gets 41 points for 3rd and 23 position difference points from his 26th starting spot for a total of 64 points. Again, unless the car breaks, 64 points is a minimum baseline. And all he would need is 16 extra points for laps led or fastest laps to hit 80 total and a 5x return on his salary. If he wins, it's 46 + 25 points for a total of 71 -- meaning he's almost at 5x without even considering the many laps led and fastest laps he would score if he wins the race.

So what can we expect as far as laps led and fastest laps? In his last six Xfinity races (excluding a mechanical failure at Watkins Glen last year), Kyle on average leads 49% of the laps run and gets 33% of the fastest laps. And, to be blunt, the competition last year when most of those races took place was much better than the 2020 version. Last year, we had Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick and Cole Custer all with top Xfinity teams. I don't know that we have even one driver as strong as any one of those in the 2020 Xfinity field. So Kyle's path to laps led and fastest laps might be easier this year.

All that said, let's be conservative and pull those averages back a bit since he's starting 26th and it will take him some time to work his way up front. Even at 40% laps led and 25% fastest laps, we're looking at about 15 laps led points and 15 fastest laps points for a total of 30 extra points on top of the 64 baseline we talked about before. So we have 95 points as a very realistic projection for Kyle in this race. And, if he wins the race and hits his average of 49% laps led and 33% fastest laps, you're looking at almost 110 total points. And that's not even his ceiling. You need to have him in your lineups.

There is some weather concern and people might wonder if this changes if the race gets shortened. I don't think so. It might even help. Kyle is going to move to the front very quickly. At a minimum, even in a shortened 100 lap race, he's going to get 20+ position difference points and a good chunk of fastest laps and likely laps led as well. I think Kyle easily hits value no matter how long the race is. The only risk is some kind of car failure or fluke wreck taking him out and everyone has that same risk.

So who can we roster with Kyle and still make a credible lineup. Here's the list of guys to consider:

• Daniel Hemric - In top notch equipment, has experience at the track and Top 10 potential which would be +13 or more position difference points. The downside is he tends to be a bit erratic and has finished 30th or worse in two of the four races this season. It's no exaggeration to say his range of outcomes is something like 57 points all the way down to -5.
• Jeffrey Earnhardt - He's running for JD Motorsports here, so it's not a top car and he doesn't have Top 10 potential like Hemric. But, he has some experience and JD has decent equipment and pretty good reliability. It's reasonable to project about a 20th place finish, which would be 38 points when you add in the +14 position difference that would get you. It's a safer play with a lower ceiling but much higher floor then someone like Hemric. By comparison, the range of outcomes is something like 42 points down to 10 points.
• Jeremy Clements - This is a solid team and a Top 20 finish is a reasonable expectation. He also has years of experience in the series, which should help in this no practice or qualifying situation. He's finished no worse than 21st in his last four Darlington races.
• Anthony Alfredo - He's young, talented, in a good car and has Top 10 upside. Starting 17th though, he does have a big downside if something goes wrong. He has only one race in the Xfinity Series and I was not able to find any record of him racing at Darlington in the past. I probably won't use Hemric and Alfredo together in cash. One or the other at most. Update: I am seriously considering using both in cash because I think ownership will be high enough to offset the risks.
• Joe Graf Jr - This is a solid team and car, but not a very good driver. His best finish in four races this year is 20th and he finished 31st or worse in the other three races. I don't feel good about using him but there's little downside since he's starting 36th and we know this team is trying to run the full race. I don't believe he has any Darlington experience.
• Ronnie Bassett - He's fine. The DGM cars are usually decent and reliable. Ronnie hasn't raced in the Xfinity Series this year, but he did have twelve races last season. He does run into issues more often then you'd like, but has a safe 32nd starting spot to lean on here with Top 20 upside. He had two 15th place finishes last season working with this same team.
• Timmy Hill - I feel pretty good about Timmy. He's experienced in the Xfinity Series. And he's raced at Darlington the last four years in the Series which gives him a huge edge over many of the other guys in this area. He's in the #61, which we know is not generally a start and park operation. A finish around 20th is doable.
• Collin Garrett - Starts 39th so can only go up. He's very inexperienced and has never run at Darlington. This is a start up team that ran one race last year and finished 21st at Homestead which is a somewhat comparable track in that it eats tires and the fastest way around is up by the wall. A textbook do no harm punt play with some upside potential. I think he'll be popular.
• Mason Massey - I hesitate to include this one because I can't be 100% sure this team will even try to run the whole race. Mason has one Xfinity Series start and I don't believe he's ever raced at Darlington. OK if you need extreme salary save.

A few last thoughts:

• You could try to run a guy like Chase Briscoe or Harrison Burton, but I think it's doubtful they get many laps led or fastest laps unless something happens to Busch. They start 11th and 12th, respectively, so it will take at least a little time for them to work to the front. Figure Gragson leads the first 10 laps and maybe until the competition caution at Lap 15. They'll be close to the front for the restart but, by that time, Busch will be closing in as well. At the very latest, I think Busch likely takes over to start Stage 2. So Briscoe, Burton and anyone else has only the narrow window between the competition caution and the end of Stage 1 to do damage from the lead. They are good plays in contrarian tournament lineups that fade Busch hoping he runs into a problem.
• Likely to park or not finish the race -- Landon Cassill, Stephen Leicht, Joe Nemechek and Bayley Currey.

Sunday Final Update: Don't have anything new to add. Things have been analyzed six ways to Sunday so we're already overthinking it. When in doubt, it often turns out our first impression of things is/was correct. Good luck everyone.

Friday Night Update: Adding a list of wagers I'm making for Sunday:

• Bowyer -105 over Almirola
• Logano +120 over Harvick
• Keselowski Even over Truex
• Keselowski +105 over Elliott
• Kyle Busch -115 over Hamlin
• Custer -110 over Bell
• Kyle Busch to win +650
• Kurt Busch to win +2500

Original Article Posted Thursday Night:
We're almost there. I want to start today with some targets based on salary and starting position which was determined today. As always, I'm focusing on cash games or 50/50 contests but will throw in a few larger tournament ideas as well.

For this first group, I'm going to start with Tyler Reddick at $7,200 and work my way down the salary list.

• Tyler Reddick, $7,200, 29th -- He's a little too risky and the salary has crept high enough to where I probably won't use him in cash games. But he's got some upside. In the two low HP, high down force races this season, he finished 18th at Las Vegas and 11th at Auto Club. He has one Cup Series start at Darlington last September and finished 37th. That's a bit deceiving though because he was running 20th late in the race but cut a tire after contact with Ryan Newman and ended up causing a big wreck that killed a number of good cars, including his own. He also has Xfinity Series experience at Darlington, so he's not a newcomer to the track. Finally, he's comfortable running close to the wall which is usually the fastest way around this track. Not a bad play, but not the safest either.
• Chris Buescher, $7,000, 24th -- I love Buescher in cash games just about every week. He's in a real solid spot starting 24th and a safer play compared to Reddick. You can count on him for a likely 15th-20th place finish every week. He's finished 14th and 16th in the two low HP, high down force races this year. He finished 12th at Darlington last year and ran in the Top 15 just about all night long. In four Cup Series races at Darlington, he's finished 17th, 17th, 13th and 12th. Last year, in the 15 races at intermediate tracks with the low HP, high down force package, Buescher finished in the Top 20 every single time. His record is damn impressive for someone who has never been with a top level team. In my mind, he's much safer then Reddick or Bell who are also options in this price range.
• Christopher Bell, $6,600, 28th -- Bell has struggled this year and doesn't have any Cup series experience at Darlington. His team is a Joe Gibbs satellite, though, so he should have all the best equipment and simulation preparation heading into the race which should help. I don't have a problem with using him in cash if you have the salary to do so. But I see a few guys $1,000 or so cheaper that might be better overall options if you need to save salary.
• Daniel Suarez, $6,200, 37th --  Personally, I probably won't use him, but it's fine to go this way in cash. It's super safe because he can't go backwards but there's also limited upside. Don't be fooled by any track history here since he's with a totally different team this year and is not in competitive equipment. I'm also a bit worried about how the long layoff might impact this #96 team. Project a finish in the 28th-30th range. I prefer cheaper options if you're down in this range.
• J.H. Nemecheck, $5,900, 34th -- Also fine. In the three non-Daytona races this year, he's finished either 24th or 25th. He's young, can get impatient and doesn't have much Darlington experience at all though. So I prefer the cheaper, safer, more experienced drivers below.
• Ty Dillon, $5,600, 33rd -- This should be a cash game lock. This is a pricing error by DK. No way he should be below Suarez or JHN. In three Darlington starts, he's finished 13th, 21st and 20th. In the two low HP, high down force races this year, he's finished 10th and 26th. He's with a solid team that has a RCR alliance, so should be fine despite the layoff. Project a finish right around 25th.
• Michael McDowell, $5,400, 31st -- I also really like McDowell at this price. He's fine at Darlington. In the last three races there, he's finished 19th, 20th and 38th. But the 38th last year looks worse then it was. He was running 23rd late in the race but was right behind Reddick when he blew the tire and got heavy damage in the resulting wreck. I'd project him to finish right around 25th with Ty Dillon.
• For larger tournaments, I'd flip most of this around. Focus on Reddick and Bell who have more upside as far as better position difference and maybe even some fastest laps. I also really like Cole Custer ($6,300) in more aggressive formats. Even from the 14th starting position, he has some potential to sneak into the Top 10 and offer some positive position difference. In the last two Xfinity races at Darlington, he's finished 2nd to Brad Keselowski (2018) and Denny Hamlin (2019). Custer is also with a top team and should be as well prepared as anyone in this price range coming off the long lay off.

Now for the guys in the $8k and over category:

• Kurt Busch, $8,500, 22nd -- I really like Kurt here. He definitely had a Top 3 car last September at Darlington. He led 94 laps and had a race high 65 fastest laps. He really had the best car past the midpoint of the race but lost a bunch of spots during a pit stop and could only climb back to 7th by the end of the race. In his last three Darlington races, he's finished 3rd, 6th and 7th.
• Eric Jones, $9,200, 20th -- Eric won here last September and really had a good car by the end of the race. In fact, all the Joe Gibbs cars were really, really fast here last September. Eric led 79 laps and had 18 fastest laps. In three Darlington starts in the Cup Series he's finished 5th, 8th and 1st. I am concerned with Eric's performance this year though. Through four races, he has only one Top 10 finish -- a 10th place result at Auto Club. I'm leaning Kurt over Eric here but either or both is fine in cash formats.
• Brad Keselowski, $10,400, 1st -- It's hard to pass on track at Darlington, so starting from pole gives Brad a really good chance to lead laps early in the race. But we have an early competition caution, so we can't even feel very confident that the lead will hold for long. There's modified pit procedures so, if Brad leads at the time of caution, he should be guaranteed the lead off pit road. But it would still bunch up the field and result in an early restart. For later pit stops, normal rules will apply and I have some concern about Brad's pit box because, unlike most races, Brad as pole sitter won't have the first and best pit stall. That belongs to the #4 of Kevin Harvick who tops the owners points standings. Brad will have the #95 of Christopher Bell pitting in front of him and, as long as Bell stays on the lead lap, his car will be sitting there when Brad has to leave his pit. That could be enough to slow him down and cost him a position or two on later pit stops.  Last year Brad started 2nd, finished 5th and led 19 laps with 14 fastest laps. He never really had a Top 3 car in last year's race and finished about where he should have. This year, the Penske Fords have been really fast as a group. Brad probably had the best car in the last race at Phoenix, but he picked up some damage early on and then had some questionable pit strategy at the end of the race, leading to an 11th place finish. He's finished 7th and 5th in the two low HP, high down force races so far this season. There are good reasons to use him, but I'm not entirely convinced he's a must play because I'm not sure he can dominate the bulk of the race.
• Denny Hamlin, $11,100, 10th -- Denny usually runs very well at Darlington. He was running 4th late in the race last year before getting caught up in the wreck caused by Tyler Reddick's flat tire. He got some pretty big damage and then got hit again on pit road which essentially ended his night. He limped to the end finishing 29th. He won here just two years ago and led 124 laps in that race -- although the rules package is much different now as compared to that race. He has top dominator and race winning upside.
• Kyle Busch, $11,800, 4th -- At this point, Kyle is my #1 dominator. Last September at Darlington, he started from the rear of the field but was 4th by the end of the first stage. He went on to finish 3rd, while leading a race high 118 laps and scoring 43 fastest laps. He's finished 2nd, 7th and 3rd in the last three Darlington races. And he finished 2nd and 3rd in the last two races early this Spring before the long layoff. Finally, he's probably the most talented guy in the garage -- which is what I want in a race on a green race track with no practice or qualifying following a two month layoff.
• Martin Truex, $10,800, 15th -- For me, he's a large tournament only play. He has a new and first time crew chief this year and they have struggled to start the season. His best finish so far is 14th at Auto Club. He did look very strong at Phoenix though before an accident ruined his day. At this price, I need to see them click before I'll use him in cash. But fire away in large tournaments.
• Joey Logano, $10,100, 9th -- This is a guy I really like in large tournaments as a contrarian play. I think most people will gravitate to Keselowski, Truex or even Elliott in this price range, so Logano may be low owned. With the layoff, people may forget he already has two wins this season. And I love this driver-crew chief pairing. Not a cash game play. 

I am so looking forward to real live racing. I'm sure you are too. I was so bummed coming off an awesome week in Phoenix where all six of the head to head bets I posted paid off and the DFS analysis led to mostly green results. I've dabbled a bit in the iRacing stuff but have really been waiting for the real stuff to be back. I'll begin posting some thoughts during the early part of the race week.