The website here will be on hiatus until Talladega. I'll be unavailable the next two weekends (Richmond and Martinsville) and don't to the dirt race at Bristol. Gonna be back as strong as ever come Dega Week.

Good luck to all in the meantime.

Two slates, so right to the point here--

Trucks

• I don't think Kyle Busch is worth it for two reasons. (1) His ceiling just isn't high enough so even if he dominates the race you can win without him. (2) I hate the lower salary tier here so want to avoid it if at all possible.
• The best plays to me are in the $8,900 - $9,900 range. I'd load up as much as you can here.
  • Matt DiBenedetto obviously
  • The group of Grant Enfinger, Kaz Grala, Ben Rhodes and Chandler Smith all offer quite a bit of safety and Top 10 upside. That's probably the order I'd rank them, but it's close and have no issue with any of them. Smith has had great speed so far this year, but has a questionable history at road courses.
  • You could go up to J.H. Nemechek, but I'm not sure he has any more upside then any of the others who are a little cheaper.
• Matt Crafton and Ty Majeski are playable in a little cheaper range, but neither has shown road course performance as good as the last group.
• Tanner Gray is also usable with a safer floor and +10 position difference upside. He is a little on the pricey side though, so not a must have.
• I don't have a lot of desire to dip below the $6k range because there are just too many question marks. Timmy Hill would be the guy down there because he's easily the best driver in this tier. But there are some reliability questions with the truck for that team and it adds risk that they spent time preparing a second truck for his brother that failed to make the race in qualifying.

Xfinity

• Up top, I lean Allmendinger over Gibbs. It's close and Gibbs might just dominate this race. But there are a lot of aggressive drivers up front with Gibbs, Chastain and Custer and I just feel like Allmendinger is the best road course racer in that group and can use his experience and patience to come out ahead. He also offers a few additional points of position difference if he can move up.
• Brandon Jones obviously - although I'd consider fading him in larger tournaments.
• Noah Gragson was fast in practice and has Top 5 upside. Daniel Hemric also has good position difference upside from 19th.
• Three strong plays in the $6k range with Jeremy Clements, Brandon Brown and Ryan Sieg. That is the order I'd rank them with Sieg as a distant third. But he does have more safety and upside with the 35th starting spot.
• I don't mind dipping below the $6k mark for Xfinity.
  • Josh Bilicki, Sage Karam and JJ Yeley all have solid road course backgrounds. The issue is their car reliability. Bilicki and Karam have a slight advantage there I think.
  • I also don't hate Stephan Parsons for a sub-$5k salary.

I'm skipping Xfinity and Trucks for Atlanta. There's too much uncertainty about what these races are going to look like and I'm not going to be able to watch practice on Saturday morning, so I've got no edge. I'm hoping to catch up on Cup practice and post something for the Cup race late Saturday night.

Cup Update--After watching practice and Saturday's races, I'm still at a point where I really don't like this race from a DFS (or real life) perspective. My advice is to play very light and try to do something a little different. Don't just play all the real chalky guys. I wouldn't go full super speedway/stack the back strategy, but I do think it's best to focus on position difference guys. I probably won't use anyone starting higher than 15th. Trying to guess lap leaders is tough and fastest laps were all spread throughout the field on Saturday. Good luck. Looking forward to a more normal race next week.

Here are my favorite options for Sunday--

• Love Martin Truex. He's been awesome at short, flat tracks, including Phoenix. Last year at Phoenix, he won one race and finished 2nd in the other. He led over 60 laps in both races and ran over 50 fastest laps both times. He's also at his best on sunny, hot, slick tracks -- which is what we should see Sunday.
• Great spot for Chase Elliott as well. He easily had the best car here in both races in 2020. He wasn't as dominant here last year, but you have to like the floor and upside from the 19th starting spot.
• Denny Hamlin was just amazing at short, flat tracks last year. He finished 3rd in both Phoenix races and ran over 35 fastest laps both times. He should battle Ryan Blaney for the early lead in this race.
• Ryan Blaney has been really fast this year with little to show for it. He hasn't been great at short, flat tracks, so I'm a little skeptical he can lead and dominate for an extended period on Sunday.
• Kevin Harvick might not be able to challenge for wins as he often did at Phoenix in the past, but he's still really, really good here. He's finished no worse than 8th here in the last two years, and I expect to see another Top 10 finish from the #4 on Sunday.
• Todd Gilliland will probably be a popular cheap punt play again. It is kind of silly that he continues to be priced the same as the Rick Ware cars. Gilliland at least has a hope of finishing on the lead lap.
• Ricky Stenhouse will be another popular play. His motor blew up on Saturday, but there should be no carry over effect into Sunday. He's good to go and has a pretty solid history at short, flat tracks. A Top 20 is a very realistic outcome.
• A.J. Allmendinger raced pretty well here Saturday and I think he'll finish inside the Top 20 on Sunday. 

Bets

• Denny Hamlin +900 to win (placed earlier this week)
• Austin Cindric +5000 to win (placed earlier this week)
• A.J. Allmendinger to win Group J (Buescher, Burton and Haley)

The scope of Kyle Larson's domination last year at the 1.5 mile lower wear tracks was just amazing. There was no one even close to him. So, for cash games this week, I'm going with Kyle and as many position difference guys as I can fit in. I just don't see things changing a whole lot.

Who are the position difference guys? Most are obvious, but here's my list of top plays--

• Kyle Busch - I'm a little worried about the quality of the back-up car, but you've got to trust that this Joe Gibbs team put together a good piece. At just over $10k starting from dead last, it's a pretty easy choice for the top spot here. That said, I do think you can fade Busch for leverage in tournaments because it's extremely unlikely he scores dominator points or sniffs the Top 5 finish. So we're talking a ceiling in the 60-65 point range.
• Chris Buescher - For the price, he slots in second here. Starting 27th, he's got a good +12-15 position difference upside for under $7k.
• Kurt Busch - Starts further back then Harvick and is a little cheaper, so he edges out the #4 car for third on my list.
• Kevin Harvick - It's still hard for me to get used to seeing him start so deep in the field and not be a factor on Sundays. A Top 10 is the goal here, but I'm not entirely convinced that's realistic without a lot of chaos.
• William Byron - Not really a true position difference guy, but I do think he's got a solid chance to finish in the Top 5 and could score dominator points. 

On the cheap end of things, I like Justin Haley, Corey LaJoie and Todd Gilliland.

• I've got Haley first because it looks like Kaulig is bringing some pretty good race cars to the track. At a minimum, they're faster then Spire, Front Row and the back markers.
• I don't love LaJoie or Gilliland, but they should be able to gain a couple of positions if they keep their cars clean.

Some H2H bets I like:

• Austin Dillon EV Brad Keselowski
• Austin Dillion -105 Kurt Busch
• Denny Hamlin +105 Tyler Reddick
• Denny Hamlin -135 Kyle Busch
• Chris Buescher -155 Ty Dillon
• Daniel Suarez +130 Eric Jones
• William Byron -110 Joey Logano
• Christopher Bell -125 Eric Jones
• Alex Bowman +300 to win Group C (Bowman, Keselowski, Harvick and Reddick)

Saturday Update -- Just a couple of bets I like

• Landon Cassill -115 Riley Herbst
• Landon Cassill +2500 to win -- one of 5-6 guys who are in the conversation to win and he has by far the longest odds, so worth risking a few bucks
  

OK, let's get some better luck and results in this Xfinity race.

I like six guys in the $9k+ range, so you can mix and match these guys--

• Ty Gibbs - Race winning potential from the #11 starting spot. This #54 team had four wins in six races at lower wear 1.5 mile tracks last year -- including Ty winning at Charlotte and Kansas.
• Noah Gragson - Really fast in practice -- but it's forecast to be a lot more cloudy and windy on Saturday, so I'm not sure how much carries over. Some concern that he didn't lead a meaningful number of laps or run many fastest laps at these types of tracks last year.
• Justin Allgaier - Finished 2nd, led 90 laps and ran 36 fastest laps in the last race here. Tends to do well at the lower wear tracks. Love the position difference potential as well.
• A.J. Allmendinger - Starts on pole and could lead early. Won the Spring race here last year and finished in the Top 7 in five of the six lower tire wear races at 1.5 mile tracks last year.
• Josh Berry - Won last Fall's race here. Been really fast, including last week in the same car. Probably the most risk of this group, but also dominator potential for a sub-$10k salary.
• Brandon Jones - Gulp! Always a wild card and risky play, but he finished 3rd and 6th here last year and did not finish worse then 11th in any of the six low tire wear 1.5 mile track races last year. Starts 21st, so has a solid floor and Top 5 upside.

Myatt Snider and Jeb Burton are solid position difference plays in the $7-8k range. Lean Burton.

Salary saver options:

• Bayley Currey and Stephan Parsons - both ran well in California last week before having late race issues that weren't really their fault. I'm fine using either of these guys because they're among the more reliable drivers in this salary range.
• Joey Gase and Ryan Ellis are other options, but I'm a little less confident in the speed and reliability of their cars.

Quick Update - Spencer Boyd slower then expected. OK with Busch and JHN since there are a number of cheap options. I'd be surprised if anyone else leads a lap other then some random one off thing. OK with Matt Mills as well.

The key question for this slate is whether to use Kyle Busch. He's obviously the favorite and is going to lead laps and run fastest laps no matter where he starts. A lot will come down to how decent a lineup you can make with cheaper guys if using Kyle. So, for now, here's a list of some cheaper options I trust the most (all relative considering it's the Trucks Series) at this point:

• Grant Enfinger - This is a bad misprice by DK. This should be a Top 5 truck with race winning potential if something were to go wrong for Kyle and/or Nemechek.
• Stewart Friesen - He ran well at the 1.5 mile tracks last year, with 4th and 6th place finishes at Las Vegas.
• Hailie Deegan - $6.5k is a little too cheap for a high quality truck if there is position difference potential.
• Austin Wayne Self - He lives on the wild side, but consistently ran in the Top 20 at the 1.5 mile tracks last year, including 14th and 8th place finishes at Las Vegas.
• Kris Wright - He's in a Niece truck, which has a lot more potential then a lot of the other trucks down in the $5k-$6k range.
• Lawless Alan - Same story as Kris Wright with another Niece truck here.
• Timmy Hill - $5k for a driver with the ability of Timmy Hill? Sign me up. He's just head and shoulders above the other guys in this price range on driving ability.
• Spencer Boyd - In the No. 12 truck, which I view as the second best Young's Motorsports truck and a step up from his normal No. 20 ride. He keeps his truck in one piece and could be a decent punt option starting far back in field.

A couple of bets that look good to me:

• Ryan Preece +2000 to win - Vegas races can get crazy and Preece got a win in this truck at Nashville last year.
• Grant Enfinger +200 Top 5 finish - This is a Top 5 truck and driver combo, so really like getting 2-to-1 odds on it.
• Enfinger -105 Chandler Smith - Smith only had two Top 10s at 1.5 mile tracks last season in six attempts. No Top 5s. Enfinger with a solid advantage here.
• Preece -110 Zane Smith - In essentially the same equipment and I think Preece is clearly the better driver. It is also Smith's first non-Daytona race with his new team.
• Preece -135 Matt DiBenedetto - Preece has a pretty sizable advantage here in truck quality.