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MY SEASON

11/4/2021

All of my notes for the Championship races at Phoenix are in the three posts below this one. For this one, I just wanted to take a few minutes to let you all know how my season long leagues have gone.

I'm in the Championship Four in a private DK league run by @JoeSchroe85. The format is very similar to the actual Cup Series with weekly contests and a 16 person Playoff format that mirrors the Cup Series with the bottom four eliminated after each 3-race round. I've been solid throughout and had two weekly wins during the Playoffs to help me reach the Finals. It's my first year in this league and there's a lot of really good players in it, so I'm really pleased (and surprised) how well it has gone. Will let you know how the Finals turn out.
I'm also in the Championship Four in a pick'em league run by Brandon Croud, who hosts the Lapped Traffic Podcast (@lappedtrafficpc). What I love about this league is that it incorporates all three series -- Trucks, Xfinity and Cup. You pick one driver from each series for each race and earn the points that driver earns for that race. It also has a 10-week Playoff for the Top 16 people with eliminations after each 3-race round. I had a pretty big cushion coming into Martinsville, but still almost got bounced because I had John Hunter Nemechek and Denny Hamlin. Luckily, I was able to hold on to the 4th spot in the Finals and I've got Zane Smith, Austin Cindric and Kyle Larson going for me this week. I have already used Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott and Martin Truex in the Playoffs, so the league rules prohibit me from using them this week even if I wanted to. I'm really psyched to be in the Finals here because he had over 125 people who entered this contest. This league is generally open to new participants each year and I'd encourage you to check it (and the podcast) out at www.thelappedtrafficpodcast.com.
- SATURDAY UPDATE - Two of us had Zane Smith and we're +7 over the other two who had J.H. Nemechek. So it's close heading into Saturday. We all have Larson Sunday, so we'll know the final order after the Xfinity Series race.
Lastly, I'm in a season long DK points league run by @Larkin8. We've got a DK contest for each Cup race and we just see who accrues the most points over the course of the entire season. There are 77 entries in this one and I'm sitting 6th heading into the final week. Realistically, I'll likely finish somewhere between 4th-8th. Again, very pleased with this one because it's a real test to stay strong each and every week. There are some really, really good DFS players in this league as well.

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Phoenix Cup

11/4/2021

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I'll post my notes for the Cup Series on Saturday night after we get through Friday practice and Saturday qualifying. Please check back here before finalizing your lineups.

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phoenix xfinity

11/4/2021

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I'll post my Xfinity Series notes late Friday night after we get through Friday practice. We won't have qualifying until shortly before the race, so things will be somewhat limited. But check back here before you finalize your lineups.

I think it's a stars and scrubs approach this week. Let's go through the best options for cash games.

Austin Cindric -- He's won the last two races here in pretty dominant fashion. Put up the second best time in practice, but didn't do a long run. That is sometimes a Penske thing and I'm not worried about it. They probably feel good about what they have and didn't want to get wrecked or show all their cards in practice. Top play.
Noah Gragson -- On the flip side, Gragson did a real long 30 lap run in practice and maintained pretty good speed throughout. Has been his best on short tracks this year and I think he's got a real shot at winning this race if he can be patient early on and save his attack mode until the end.
J.H. Nemechek -- The #54 has really been the best car all year long. He was fastest in practice. And this car is still fighting for the owner's points championship so they're not going to roll over for the Championship 4. My only concern is Nemechek's state of mind. He's got to be devastated by not winning the Trucks championship after the season he had. Can he refocus for this race? I think he does, but it's a risk.
Daniel Hemric -- Second best car to the #54 all year long. There's a good chance he leads at some point. But can he close the deal?
Overall, I like Cindric best no matter where he starts. For the other three, I could see using any of them and it might come down to which one can give you a few extra points for + position difference.
I don't really have much in the mid-tier other than possibly Riley Herbst and Ryan Sieg.
- Herbst finished 4th here in the Spring race and has generally run well here. If he starts a little further back, he could be a good option for under $8k. I generally shy away from him because of the numerous "issues" he tends to run into, but I think that risk is already baked into this price.
- Sieg was fast in practice and maintained good speed over a long run. His 15 lap average was right on par with Sam Meyer and Michael Annett. I'm hoping they don't try some goofy hero strategy since it's the championship race and they won't want to wreck the field in front of the Championship 4. He's awfully cheap if he offers some + position difference upside.
Josh Williams and Ryan Vargas would be my top punt targets pending their starting spot. I don't like a whole lot in the sub-$6k range.

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Phoenix Trucks

11/4/2021

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I won't have too much to say about the Trucks Series because practice, qualifying and the race all happen on Friday. Here's a couple of general thoughts on the slate to help you out --

Top end guys like JHN, Zane Smith and Sheldon Creed (maybe) seem a little underpriced. I think one (or some combination) of these three lead most of the laps and run the most fastest laps. JHN and Smith are pretty obvious. Creed might be surprising since he's not running for the championship, but I'm still high on him because this truck was very likely prepared a while back with the expectation they'd be racing for a second championship here. So him missing it last week doesn't really move the needle much for me.
Grant Enfinger is overpriced. He's not in a ThorSport truck this week. Back in the #9 for Codie Rohrbaugh's team. 12th-15th maybe?
$7k-$8.5k could be a sweet spot depending on where those guys qualify. Some pretty good trucks and/or drivers in that range. Not lap leaders, but guys who can get Top 10s and + position difference if they start further back.
Lawless Alan might be underpriced in a Niece truck. He's going full time with them next year, so they'll push for a good showing here.
Hailie Deegan could be an option in the same price range.
Tyler Hill looks like the best quality punt play. Depends where he qualifies.

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