I'll do two things with this final weekend update.  First, I'll give you the lineup I'll be playing most heavily this weekend.  Second, I'll give you a full list of driver targets for you to pick from so you can make your own well informed decisions as well.

My Main Lineup
Here is where I'm going with my main lineup.  Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, Clint Bowyer, Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray and Landon Cassill.  I think this gives you (1) the two guys most likely to dominate the race in Busch and Truex, (2) two point hogs in Bowyer and Newman who should finish well and maybe gain 5 or so positions each, and (3) two guys starting in the back with a chance to score 5-8 position difference points without even doing much (hopefully even more for McMurray).  MONDAY UPDATE:  IF YOU DON'T WANT TO USE CASSILL, YOU CAN CONSIDER PIVOTING OFF BOWYER AND CASSILL TO TY DILLON AND EITHER AUSTIN DILLON OR DANIEL SUAREZ.
Good luck!


Full List of Driver Targets
Information updated from the initial driver target list is shown in bold.

• Kyle Busch ($11,000) -- He has dominated at Martinsville recently.  In the last four races, he has two wins and he's finished in the Top 5 in all four races.  He has led over 40% of the total combined laps in those four races.  He had the fastest 20 lap average in final practice and second fastest 15 lap and 10 lap average.
• Martin Truex ($10,700) -- Has never won here or at any other short track.  But he has finished in the Top 7 four of the last six races here.  He starts from the pole and will likely lead laps early.  He also started from the pole in October 2016 and led 147 laps on the way to a 7th place finish.  In final practice, he had the third best 10 lap average, the best 15 lap average and the sixth fastest 20 lap average.
• Brad Keselowski ($10,100) -- He is the only one who has been anywhere near Kyle the last four races.  He has one win and has also finished in the Top 5 all four races.  He has led over 11% of the total combined laps in those races.  In final practice, he had the best 10 lap average, the ninth best 15 lap average and the tenth best 20 lap average.
• Chase Elliott ($9,900) -- Last year in October, Chase led 123 laps at Martinsville and had the race won until Denny Hamlin took him out in a very controversial "pass" for the lead.  Chase had to pit to repair damage and finished 23rd.  In Spring last year, Chase started 2nd and finished 3rd.  He led 20 laps in that race.  It would be fitting to see Chase score his first Cup series victory here this weekend.  In final practice, he had the eighth best 15 lap average and seventh best 15 lap average.
• Joey Logano ($9,500) -- He has won the pole 4 of the last 6 races at Martinsville.  But, he has no wins, only one Top 5 and three Top 10 finishes in those six races.  He obviously has some speed here (and his teammate has done very well) but he hasn't been able to translate that into race success yet.  Didn't show great speed in practice in Saturday.  Carries a lot of risk starting third.
• Jimmie Johnson ($9,100) -- Jimmie has an awesome history at this track with nine career Cup series victories.  His last was in October 2016.  However, he didn't even lead 100 laps in that race and he hasn't led a large number of laps in any recent races here.  That said, he showed some speed last week for the first time this season and he does have that history here.  So he's worth watching this weekend.  Was down in 27th on the 10 lap average chart in final practice.
• Clint Bowyer ($8,300) -- Ran very well at Martinsville last year in his first season at SHR.  In Spring, he started 8th and finished 7th.  In fall, he started 5th and finished 3rd.  On Sunday, he will start 9th.  In final practice, he had the 4th best 10 lap average, 3rd best 15 lap average and 3rd best 20 lap average.
• Ryan Newman ($7,900) -- Possibly a good option at a moderate cost.  Newman has been solid at Martinsville.  He's finished in the Top 10 three of the last five races and has not finished lower than 16th in those five races.  He's unlikely to led laps or get many fastest laps, but he is a good bet for a 6th-12th place finish and solid points.  He showed solid speed in practice.  He was sixth in 10 lap average, fifth in 15 lap average and second in 20 lap average.  He remains a solid pick starting 14th.
• Austin Dillon ($7,700) -- Another possible moderate cost option.  He's finished in the Top 20 the last four Martinsville races.  In the last two Spring races, though, he's finished 4th and 5th.  He's also had some very impressive position difference showings in the last four races.  He is +25, +15, +15 and +12 positions in the last four Martinsville races.  At a track where it's difficult to pass, that is very impressive.  He also showed solid speed on Saturday.  In final practice, he was ninth in 10 lap average, sixth in 15 lap average and fifth in 20 lap average.
• AJ Allmendinger ($6,400) -- We had AJ as a lower cost option last week and he finished 22nd with a +10 position difference bonus.  We're going back to him at Martinsville where he has done really well in most races.  Last October, he did have an early accident and finished 40th.  But, in the three prior Martinsville races, he had three consecutive Top 10 finishes.  His road course skills and braking ability are real assets at a track like Martinsville where the corner speeds drop so low.  AJ has raced at Martinsville eight times since joining JTG Daugherty Racing in the #47.  He has two terrible finishes of 40th or worse, but in the other six races, he has finished no worse than 11th and has a high of 2nd in October 2016.  I'd like to see him start toward the back of the field, which would make him a low risk, high upside choice at a great salary.  He starts 25th, which gives him good position difference potential.  He had good single lap speed in practice, but was only 20th on the 10 lap average chart in final practice.  The Fox broadcast also caught a team conversation where they seemed very concerned about the car as the run went on.  I still think he's an option, but am thinking more about the next guy now.
• Ty Dillon ($5,600) -- Starts 32nd and had decent speed on Saturday.  In the first practice, he had the 13th fastest single lap and was 7th quick in 10 lap average.  In the final practice, he had the 14th fastest single lap and was 15th quick in 10 lap average.  However, in two starts at Martinsville in the 13 car, he has basically run in place and finished no higher than 22nd.  What we would be hoping for is a finish somewhere between 20th-25th.
• Landon Cassill ($4,500) -- Cassill is replacing Jeffrey Earnhardt in the #00 car.  He is really a solid driver and, at this cost, could be a viable salary saving play as long as he qualifies at the back.  He and Allmendinger could open up something of a "stars and scrubs" type option that would allow you to roster our top three drivers Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and Chase Elliott with a solid points grinder like Ryan Newman.

​Here's our first look at this weekend's Martinsville race.  First some general notes about the race weekend:

• This is one of the rare two day weekends with events on Saturday and Sunday only.  There are two practices and qualifying on Saturday.  The race is Sunday at 2pm Eastern.
• There is a lot of uncertainty about how much (if any) on track action will actually take place.  As of this posting, Saturday's forecast is for temperatures in the low 40s with a rain/snow mix likely in the afternoon.  There is a 70% chance of rain throughout Saturday night and Sunday.  Monday is expected to be dry.
• For NASCAR specific weather updates, follow @RaceWeather and @NASCAR_WXMAN on Twitter

Whenever we get to racing, here's a preliminary driver target list.  This week's DraftKing's salary in parenthesis:

• Kyle Busch ($11,000) -- He has dominated at Martinsville recently.  In the last four races, he has two wins and he's finished in the Top 5 in all four races.  He has led over 40% of the total combined laps in those four races.
• Brad Keselowski ($10,100) -- He is the only one who has been anywhere near Kyle the last four races.  He has one win and has also finished in the Top 5 all four races.  He has led over 11% of the total combined laps in those races.
• Chase Elliott ($9,900) -- Last year in October, Chase led 123 laps at Martinsville and had the race won until Denny Hamlin took him out in a very controversial "pass" for the lead.  Chase had to pit to repair damage and finished 23rd.  In Spring last year, Chase started 2nd and finished 3rd.  He led 20 laps in that race.  It would be fitting to see Chase score his first Cup series victory here this weekend.
• Joey Logano ($9,500) -- He has won the pole 4 of the last 6 races at Martinsville.  But, he has no wins, only one Top 5 and three Top 10 finishes in those six races.  He obviously has some speed here (and his teammate has done very well) but he hasn't been able to translate that into race success yet.
• Jimmie Johnson ($9,100) -- Jimmie has an awesome history at this track with nine career Cup series victories.  His last was in October 2016.  However, he didn't even lead 100 laps in that race and he hasn't led a large number of laps in any recent races here.  That said, he showed some speed last week for the first time this season and he does have that history here.  So he's worth watching this weekend.
• Ryan Newman ($7,900) -- Possibly a good option at a moderate cost.  Newman has been solid at Martinsville.  He's finished in the Top 10 three of the last five races and has not finished lower than 16th in those five races.  He's unlikely to led laps or get many fastest laps, but he is a good bet for a 6th-12th place finish and solid points.
• Austin Dillon ($7,700) -- Another possible moderate cost option.  He's finished in the Top 20 the last four Martinsville races.  In the last two Spring races, though, he's finished 4th and 5th.  He's also had some very impressive position difference showings in the last four races.  He is +25, +15, +15 and +12 positions in the last four Martinsville races.  At a track where it's difficult to pass, that is very impressive.
• AJ Allmendinger ($6,400) -- We had AJ as a lower cost option last week and he finished 22nd with a +10 position difference bonus.  We're going back to him at Martinsville where he has done really well in most races.  Last October, he did have an early accident and finished 40th.  But, in the three prior Martinsville races, he had three consecutive Top 10 finishes.  His road course skills and braking ability are real assets at a track like Martinsville where the corner speeds drop so low.  AJ has raced at Martinsville eight times since joining JTG Daugherty Racing in the #47.  He has two terrible finishes of 40th or worse, but in the other six races, he has finished no worse than 11th and has a high of 2nd in October 2016.  I'd like to see him start toward the back of the field, which would make him a low risk, high upside choice at a great salary.
• Landon Cassill ($4,500) -- Cassill is replacing Jeffrey Earnhardt in the #00 car.  He is really a solid driver and, at this cost, could be a viable salary saving play as long as he qualifies at the back.  He and Allmendinger could open up something of a "stars and scrubs" type option that would allow you to roster our top three drivers Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and Chase Elliott with a solid points grinder like Ryan Newman.

We'll continue to update things as the weekend nears and throughout the weekend as long as we have on track action.  In the meantime, please follow us on Twitter and tweet any questions you have @illinisjc.    

I'm very happy that we were in on Truex, Larson and Kyle Busch all week long.  All three were in our initial write-up this week and they finished 1-2-3 at Auto Club on Sunday.

That said, for just the second time this year, our feature lineup didn't get it done on Sunday.  In large part that was because of the odd incident involving Kevin Harvick and Kyle Larson as they were fighting for 3rd and 4th place about 40 laps into the race.  It was odd that they were fighting so hard that early in the race and the incident itself was bizarre.  It looked like Harvick wanted to come down on Larson, but he either went too far or Larson moved up a bit and Harvick got knocked into the wall.  He ended up 35th and multiple laps down.

Up to that point, Harvick had moved up seven spots after starting 10th and he had 11 fastest laps.  He looked like a Top 5 car easily and, with a few adjustments, might have led laps and gotten many more fastest laps.  But, in that one instant, Harvick went from a 50-60 (or more) point car to a -10 point car.  That was obviously the difference in cashing in this week.  Under the same circumstances, I would pick Harvick again every time.  He had a strong record at Auto Club, was as hot as could be, and had the fastest 5, 10 and 15 lap averages in final practice.  Sometimes the right pick just doesn't work out.

We also got slammed by Daniel Suarez's late pit road speeding penalty.  He started 30th and was running inside the Top 20 with about 40 laps left in the race when he got nabbed for speeding on pit road.  He got a drive through penalty, which dropped him a lap down into 23rd place to finish the race.

On the plus side, we nailed the picks of Clint Bowyer and Kyle Busch.  Clint finished 11th, but had 15 position difference points, for a total of 48 points.  Kyle finished 3rd, led 62 laps and ran 26 fastest laps.  He scored 68.5 points.

We're disappointed with the result today, but we're already looking forward to getting back in the $ next week at Martinsville.

Just a quick update to let you know where I'm going with my main lineup.  There are so many different ways to go, so there will be a lot of variety in the lineups on Sunday.  (Also look at our preview notes in the post below.)

• Kevin Harvick $11,500 -- He looks poised to run up front again.  He had the fastest 5 lap, 10 lap and 15 lap times in final practice on Saturday.  His 15 lap speed was about .2 of a second per lap faster than anyone else, which is huge.
• Kyle Busch $10,300 -- My thinking is that Kyle is the most likely guy other than Harvick to lead or dominate the race.  He had the 4th best 10 lap and 3rd best 15 lap times in final practice.
• Clint Bowyer $8,000 -- He starts 26th and should move into the Top 12 by the end of the race.
• Jamie McMurray $7,200 -- He has Top 10 finishes in the last six races at 2 mile tracks.  He was good in final practice with the 8th quickest 10 lap and 15 lap times.
• Daniel Suarez $7,000 -- He starts 30th and will hopefully finish in the Top 12-16 or so.  In a GPP, you could use William Byron ($6,600) or Kasey Kahne ($6,100) in this spot as well.
• AJ Allmendinger $6,000 -- He actually has a pretty good record here.  Since joining JTG Daugherty Racing four seasons ago, AJ had finished 8th twice, 17th once and 34th once.  He starts 32nd and can hopefully finish inside the Top 20.

Good luck everyone.  If you have any last minute questions before lock, please send them on Twitter @illinisjc

It's time for our first set of Auto Club preview notes.  What we're trying to do here is establish our driver target list based on past performance at the track and how the team is performing at this point in the season.  We'll update this list as we get more information from practice and qualifying:

• Kyle Larson -- $10,000 -- Auto Club is one of two high speed two mile ovals on the Nascar schedule.  Michigan is the other.  Kyle Larson has won the last four Cup races at this type of track.  He won (and led 110 of 202 laps) at Auto Club last year.  He also won both Michigan races last year and won the last Michigan race in 2016.  In my mind, Larson is the favorite coming into this weekend and he comes at a hefty $1,500 discount to Kevin Harvick.
• Kevin Harvick -- $11,500 -- The 4 team is obviously on a ridiculous run right now, but they weren't so great at the two mile tracks last year.  Harvick finished 13th at Auto Club and then 14th and 13th in the two Michigan races.  He did not lead any laps in those races.  However, two years ago, Harvick finished 2nd at the Auto Club race and led 142 of 205 laps.  And three years ago, he also finished 2nd at Auto Club and led 34 of 209 laps.  So, by now means am I counting him out this weekend.  I just don't think the price tag will be worth it at a track where Harvick's results have been up and down.
• Martin Truex -- $10,800 -- Last year, Truex finished 4th at Auto Club and led 73 of 202 laps.  He was also strong at Michigan, finishing 2nd and 6th and leading over 55 laps in both races.  He comes into this race with Top 5 finishes the last three weeks and I'm looking for him to run near the front again.  It will all come down to whether he shows the type of speed in practice that suggests he will be able to lead laps and run fastest laps.
• Chase Elliott -- $9,700 -- Chase has raced on the two mile tracks six times in his Cup career and finished in the Top 10 in all six of those races.  In 2017, he finished 10th at Auto Club and in 2016, he finished 6th.  But he only led a total of five laps in those races.  At Michigan, he's finished 2nd three times and 8th once.  He has led a total of 66 laps in his four Michigan races.  I expect Chase to have a good run Sunday but, like Truex, it comes down to whether he has the speed to lead laps and run fastest laps.
• Kyle Busch -- $10,300 -- During the four race stretch from 2011-2014, Kyle won twice at Auto Club and finished 2nd and 3rd in the other races.  He did not race in 2015 due to the injury he suffered at Daytona and then struggled somewhat in 2016 (25th) and 2017 (8th).  But, he's running very well right now -- with back-to-back 2nd place finishes at Las Vegas and Phoenix.  Last year, Kyle Larson finished 2nd at Las Vegas and Phoenix and then won at Auto Club.  Could a different Kyle repeat that trick this year?
• Clint Bowyer -- $8,000 -- Last year, in his first year with Stewart-Haas Racing, Bowyer started 17th and finished 3rd at Auto Club.  The SHR cars are running great right now and Bowyer may be a prime target this weekend at a good price.
• Jamie McMurray -- $7,200 -- For the last two years, Jamie has been consistent and strong at both the two mile tracks -- just like his teammate Kyle Larson.  Last year, Jamie finished 6th at Auto Club and then 5th and 9th at Michigan.  In 2016, he finished 10th at Auto Club and then 8th and 9th at Michigan.  So he has six consecutive Top 10 finishes at the two mile tracks and he comes with a great price tag.
• Daniel Suarez -- $7,000 -- In his only Cup series race at Auto Club, Suarez started 10th and finished 7th.  Given the price tag and quality team, he bears watching this weekend.
• We'll identify a few low end salary savers after qualifying.

Friday Night Update
Well that inspection nonsense for qualifying has really thrown things off.  Here's a few things to keep in mind based on starting positions:

• It's going to be real hard to roster a salary saver other than Ross Chastain and possibly Kasey Kahne.  Most of the usual suspects (like Michael McDowell and Matt DiBenedetto) are starting in a much higher starting spot this week.  So they're likely to lose positions during the race making them someone we don't want to roster at all.
• I'm going to watch the Hendrick cars closely in practice.  If one or more shows good long run speed, they might become good options with positive position difference potential.
• I continue to like McMurray and Suarez as moderate cost options.  Suarez officially starts 30th, but will actually go to the rear.  Even so, he should finish with a good chunk of positive position difference points.  McMurray starts 15th and I can't imagine he finishes worse than that unless he has some mechanical issue.  Recall that he has six consecutive Top 10 finishes at this type of track configuration.
• Also throw in Bowyer and Almirola, who start 26th and 27th, respectively. 
• Saturday practice is going to be critical.  We'll have a lot better idea where to go with the lineup tomorrow night.  This is a very jumbled up week so I feel there's going to be a lot more variety in lineups entered.  I like our chances in that situation.

Feel free to tweet any questions or comments @illinisjc

I'm happy with the lineup we posted on Saturday night.  It scored 280 Draft Kings points, which put it easily in the money in double up and cash games.  My only disappointment was that it wasn't enough to put you in the money in tournaments.  From what I saw, it finished right on (or right below) the money line in tournaments.  I won a few bucks in one tournament, but came up empty in another with this lineup.  So let's look again at our lineup:

• Harvick -- Another win for the 4 team.  He led 38 laps and had 56 fastest laps for a total of 92.5 DK points.  Truthfully, I thought he we dominate a bit more.  But it looked like he was saving his equipment and not taking chances early in the race so that he had what he needed to win in the end.  He was worth the salary and was the right call to lead our lineup.
• Elliott -- He did exactly what we expected.  A 3rd place finish with 32 fastest laps for a total of 57 points.  It was a good pick and he was relatively low owned at around 30%.
• Almirola -- We said we expected him to be a Top 12 car and he delivered on that.  He finished 7th and got 15 position difference points for a total of 52 points.  His ownership was in the 35-40% range, which is actually a bit lower than I expected.
• Eric Jones -- It was an up and down day for Jones and not as good as I hoped.  He finished 9th and had 7 fastest laps for a total of 38.5 points.  This could have been so much better.  In the final stage, he had worked his way up to 6th but had a disaster pit stop.  He had contact with his teammate Daniel Suarez and had to pit a second time.  That caused him to restart 30th with just 115 laps left in the race.  He made an amazing run to get all the way back to 9th by the finish.  Without that mess up, I think he was heading for a Top 5 and could have had more fastest laps and/or laps led.  I thought he would score in the same range as his teammates Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin and that was a miss.  Kyle led 128 laps had 65 fastest laps and scored 111.5 points.  Hamlin had 33 laps led and 15 fastest laps and scored 57.25 points.  Jones was under 20% owned, so having him not meet our expectations was a big reason why we cashed and won our double ups but didn't take down a tournament with this lineup.
• Michael McDowell -- Burned again by this team.  He had a power steering mechanical failure about halfway through the race which caused him to go a few laps down.  He limped home 32nd for only 11 DK points.  He was over 50% owned for the most part, so this didn't kill us.
• Stenhouse -- Another mild disappointment.  He finished 23rd and scored 29 DK points.  We were hoping for a finish closer to 15th that would have added another 8 positional difference points or so.

Let's also look at a few guys who were on our main target list but didn't make the top lineup we put out there Saturday night:

• Truex -- He finished 5th but only scored 40.25 DK points because he didn't have any significant laps led or fastest laps.  A good call to not emphasize him.
• Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin -- We talked about them above when covering Eric Jones.  We missed on these guys and they outperformed our expectations.  We noted they both had the potential to go off but that we didn't think they would justify the additional salary over a guy like Eric Jones.  It turns out that Kyle in particular was worth every penny.
• Keselowski -- We projected that the 2 team would try some strategy plays but that they were just swinging for the fences and that the numbers were showing an 8th-14th place car.  We were exactly right.  They tried three strategy plays -- twice doing a two tire pit stops and then staying out longer than everyone else in the third stage to try to catch a lot of cars a lap down if a timely caution came out.  They didn't get the luck they needed, so Keselowski finished 15th.  He did score 51.5 DK points, but you were still significantly better off with our primary recommendation of Chase Elliott for $100 less in salary.
  

Now a real quick look at Fontana California for next Sunday:

• It's a two mile oval and Kyle Larson has won the last four Cup races at those tracks.  He won (and led 110 of 202 laps) at Fontana last year.  He also won both Michigan races last year and won the last Michigan race in 2016.  So look for Larson to be a favorite going into the weekend.
• Kevin Harvick is on a mad run right now, but he wasn't so great at the two mile tracks last year.  He finished 13th at Fontana and then 14th and 13th in the two Michigan races.  He did not lead any laps in those races.
• Chase Elliott has six Top 10 finishes in his six career Cup races at the two mile tracks.  He has finished 6th and 10th in his two Fontana races.
• Last year, Martin Truex finished 2nd, 4th and 6th at the two mile tracks and led almost one-third of all the laps run in those races.  At Fontana, he finished 4th and led 73 of 202 laps.

Please follow us or tweet any questions you have @illinisjc.  And visit our Patreon page at any time to support our work.  (CLICK THIS FOR LINK)

We've got 12 drivers on the target list below but I want to try to simplify things and get a smaller group of the real top targets for you.  So here are my top guys:

• Harvick -- The guy is on a roll and he just killed final practice.  He had the best single lap and best 10 lap, 15 lap and 20 lap averages.  There is nothing more this team would like to do than dominate again this week after getting slammed with the penalty after Las Vegas.  On top of that, he starts 10th, so there are position difference points to be gained as well.  Despite the salary, he's a virtual must have.
  
• Elliott -- He has a great record at this track and was on Harvick's heels during final practice.  He had the 6th fastest single lap, but had the second fastest 10 lap, 15 lap and 20 lap averages.  He rolls off third and could be in the lead very soon after that.  Last year, he finished 2nd and 12th at Phoenix and led 140 of the 626 laps run there.
  
• Almirola -- Struggled early in the weekend but made huge gains in final practice.  He had the 4th fastest single lap, but third best 10 lap and 15 lap averages.  When interviewed after practice, he seemed confident and said they needed only a few small tweaks to really have the car dialed in like the 4 of Harvick.  Almirola starts 22nd, so offers position difference points if he finishes in the Top 12 or so as I expect he will.
  
• Eric Jones -- Quietly putting together a great weekend.  They had a steering issue in the first practice today, but really got the car dialed in during final practice.  He posted the 9th fastest single lap, but was 7th in 10 lap average.  About two-thirds of the way through final practice, the Fox broadcast said Jones was 4th best in 20 lap average -- ahead of his JGR teammates Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch.  I don't know for sure it ended in that exact order, but it is clear Jones has a good car and comes at a good discount compared to his JGR teammates.  And don't forget Jones finished 4th and 8th last year at Phoenix.
  
• McDowell -- That's where I would go for a salary saver.  In the final practice, he had the 21st fastest single lap time and 21st best 10 lap average.  That was about 5-8 spots better than the other guys down at the bottom end of the salary scale.  He also starts 31st, just in front of the back markers, so there is nowhere to go but up with position difference points in the offing. 
  

I recommend building your main lineups around these guys.  If you use all five, it leaves you with $7,200 in salary left.  You can slide Stenhouse in there for $7,100.  Admittedly, he's in a back-up car, hasn't looked great and will be starting from the rear.  So it's not a great scenario for him.  But he is credited with the 29th starting spot, so he'll likely score a decent number of position difference points.  He had the 20th best 10 lap average in final practice, so if he can just finish between 15th - 20th, he'll give you decent points plus the 10 or so position difference points.  And don't forget what we said below -- last Spring he started 21st and finished 4th and last Fall he started 27th and finished 8th.  So he's done this before -- twice.  Anything close to a repeat is a home run.

Just a few quick comments on guys I am not pushing this week.  I've seen others pushing some or all of these guys, so I wanted to explain why I am not going that way.  It's not that I don't like these guys or don't think they cannot dominate and win.  All of them are capable of doing that and you should have exposure to them if you're doing a bunch of lineups.  I just like the guys I listed above a bit more:

• Martin Truex -- Starts on the pole.  He just doesn't have a great history at Phoenix (only one Top 10 finish in the last five races) so I am very worried that you're starting the race in the hole with him because you will almost certainly have negative position difference points.  On top of that, he didn't look great in practice on Saturday.  He was only 11th fastest in 10 lap average during final practice.  And the Fox broadcast seemed to say he had not done any 15 lap or 20 lap runs.  If true, that's concerning because it suggests they were still searching and making numerous changes instead of doing a long run race simulation.  I'd be surprised if he just drives off and leads a bunch of laps.  There's a small chance it could happen so, as we always say, have some exposure if you're doing a bunch of lineups, but I wouldn't be targeting him in your main lineups. 
• Kyle Bush -- He profiles very similar to Eric Jones this week, but Kyle's salary is $10,500 and Eric's is only $8,300.  For example, in final practice, Kyle had the 8th best single lap and 6th best 10 lap average.  Jones had the 9th best single lap and 7th best 10 lap average.  Kyle starts 7th and Jones starts 9th.  Jones is virtually the same guy for $2,200 less.  Again, I like Kyle a lot.  But Jones is the better salary play.
  
• Denny Hamlin -- Basically the same story as Kyle.  Denny starts 6th.  In final practice, he had the 10th quickest single lap and 10th best 10 lap average.  He costs $9,200 -- still $900 more than Jones.
  
• Brad Keselowski -- Brad starts 25th, so he has a lot of position difference potential.  But he has really had a pedestrian weekend so far.  In the first practice today, he was 10th in 10 lap average.  In final practice, he was 12th in single lap time and 10 lap average.  So the numbers are showing a finish in the 8th-14th range.  I would like to see more for a $9,900 salary.  Also, the last three times Brad has started back in the pack, he has struggled.  In Spring 2016, he started 19th and finished 29th.  In Fall 2016, he started 14th and finished 14th.  And in Fall 2017, he started 16th and finished 16th.  So, at least in the last few years, when Brad has not qualified well here, he hasn't finished well here.  Again, given the upside potential, you should by all means use him if you're doing multiple lineups.  I wouldn't put it past he and Paul Wolff to come up with a strategy play to get him track position and a chance to lead laps and finish near the top.  But that's just swinging for the fences right now and it's not something I want to do in my main lineup.
  

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Here's our updated list of driver targets for this Sunday's race at Phoenix.  We didn't learn too much from practice on Friday because no one did extended race runs.  It was all focused on qualifying.  We've made a few additions and updates here based on speed shown Friday and starting spot.  Saturday night, we'll have a final update with some example roster constructions.

• Kevin Harvick $11,400 (Qualified 10th) -- Big surprise that he's here, right?  He was dominant at Atlanta and Las Vegas.  He won both races and led 395 of the 592 laps run.  More bad news for the field is that Phoenix used to be Harvick's playground.  From November 2013 to March 2016, Harvick won five of the six Phoenix races (he finished second in the only race he didn't win) and led well over 100 laps in each of those races.  In the three races since then, he hasn't led any laps, but he has still finished 4th, 6th and 5th.  The only open question is how the penalty for the roof and side skirt issues impacts the team.  Until we see something otherwise in practice, we have to expect a Top 5 finish this weekend.  The question will be is he worth the price tag this week.  UPDATE:  Will be starting 10th.  Will have to watch his extended race runs in practice on Saturday to make a final call on whether he is worth the price tag. 
• Martin Truex $10,900 (1st) (ADDED FRIDAY NIGHT) -- Phoenix tends to have a driver who dominates for long stretches and leads 100+ laps.  Truex is starting first and could be that guy.  He doesn't have a long history of success here, but he broke out at new tracks last year, so a break out here would not be all that surprising.  Last Fall was his best Phoenix race.  He started 5th and finished 3rd, but did not lead any laps.  Truex has not led a lap at Phoenix in the last 11 races there -- despite starting in the Top 10 for five of those races.  As you can see, there are indicators going in every direction here.  As of now, I wouldn't say he is a main recommendation, but you can use him on a secondary lineup or two in case he does go off and lead a bunch of laps, etc.
  
• Kyle Busch $10,500 (7th) -- Kyle has a great four race streak going at Phoenix.  He has finished 7th, 3rd, 2nd and 4th in those races.  He has also led laps in the last two Spring races -- 75 laps in 2016 and 114 in 2017.  He's also running well right now, having finished 7th at Atlanta and 2nd at Las Vegas.  And he comes at a $900 discount off Harvick.
• Kyle Larson $10,300 (2nd) (ADDED FRIDAY NIGHT) -- Larson is a strong candidate to lead laps on Sunday.  Last Fall, Larson started 3rd and moved up to 2nd before his motor blew-up, leading to a 40th place finish.  In the two Phoenix races before that, he started 4th and finished 2nd and started 2nd and finished 3rd.  So he does have a recent history of running well when starting up front.  That said, he has only led 15 laps in those three races despite being in position to do much more.
  
• Chase Elliott $9,800 (3rd) -- Chase is off to a slow start, after having been crashed out of two of the first three races.  Last year at Phoenix, however, he finished 2nd and 12th and led laps in both races (106 in the Spring and 34 in the Fall).  He also finished 9th and 8th at Phoenix during the 2016 season.  So he has done very well in all four career races at this track.  (One minor concern is the incident he had with Denny Hamlin at this track last year in the playoffs.  Hamlin had wrecked Elliott the week before at Martinsville.  Elliott raced Hamlin very aggressively at Phoenix with Hamlin finally crashing after contact with Elliott.  You have to figure that Hamlin and his Joe Gibbs teammates will race Elliott very aggressively during this race in particular.)  He is also on the high end of the price range given his lackluster results thus far this year.  UPDATE:  The Hendrick group showed some speed today and has shown pretty good results at Phoenix.  He remains a top target.
• Denny Hamlin $9,200 (6th) (ADDED FRIDAY NIGHT) -- I hate to add so many drivers, but I think it's relevant to remind people about last Fall.  That race, Hamlin started 2nd, but went to the lead and led 193 laps before the incident with Elliott took him out of contention.  Hamlin's price tag is fair and he has a chance of leading a good number of laps.
  
• Eric Jones $8,300 (9th) -- Jones finished 4th and 8th in the two Phoenix races last year with Furniture Row Racing.  (He also ran both Phoenix Xfinity races last year and finished 3rd in both, with 36 and 65 laps led.)  Jones also ran the Phoenix Cup race in Fall of 2016 in the #20 car for Joe Gibbs Racing when Matt Kenseth was suspended for purposely wrecking Joey Logano at Martinsville.  In that race, Jones finished 19th after starting 7th.  Jones is running pretty well right now, having finished 11th at Atlanta and 8th at Las Vegas.  He has an affordable price tag and is looking like a really strong mid-range target.  UPDATE:  Showed good speed and will start 9th.  I like him at this price.
• Aric Almirola $8,100 (22nd) -- He would really leap out if Fords continue to show dominance early in the weekend.  He has a solid history at Phoenix during his time at RPM.  In the last Phoenix race, he finished 9th after starting 22nd.  A lot will depend on starting spot with him.  UPDATE:  The Fords did not look dominant today and he will start back in 22nd.  I'm not sure the upside is there to justify the spend.
• Ricky Stenhouse $7,100 (29th) -- Stenhouse finished 8th and 4th last year at Phoenix.  In both races he started deep in the field outside the Top 20.  He has struggled to start this year -- finishing no better than 14th so far -- but is still one to keep an eye on this week, especially with this reduced price tag.  UPDATE:  Will start 29th.  Something broke on his first lap in practice and he had to go to the backup car.  He's a real good option to score a solid finish with 10+ position difference points.  Last Spring he started 21st but finished 4th and last Fall he started 27th but finished 8th.  Even half that would pay off at this salary.
• Ty Dillon $6,400 (28th) -- Ty is looking like a strong salary saver this week.  In the last Phoenix race, he started 29th, but finished all the way up in the 11th position.  In his only other Phoenix race with Germain Racing, he finished 16th after starting 15th.  A lot will depend on his starting spot.  (He has run the Phoenix Xfinity races often and finished in the Top 10 seven of eight times.)  UPDATE:  Will start 28th.  I'm not in love with this option.  I think I'd rather pay a bit more for Stenhouse or go down to McDowell or DiBenedetto.
• Michael McDowell $5,200 (31st) -- We got burned by McDowell last week, but that was pure bad luck.  He seemed to have decent speed and even led some laps using an alternate pit strategy.  But his engine blew up midway through the race and he finished dead last.  This week, he tweeted (@Mc_Driver) a picture of the debris that punctured the radiator and drained all the water causing the engine failure.  Given the completely random nature of this failure, I would have no hesitation going back to this well if we see good signs in practice and qualifying.  He has no great Phoenix finishes.  But, in the last race there, he finished 22nd and had +6 position difference.  We would take that any day at this salary.  UPDATE:  Will start 31st.  This leaves good room for a finish in the 20-25th range and about 10 position difference points.  A good spot at this price.
• Matt DiBenedetto $4,900 (30th) (ADDED FRIDAY NIGHT) --  Matt had an interesting week.  He appealed for sponsorship on-line and got thousands of dollars of support from fellow drivers, including Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick.  I'd say the same thing about him as McDowell.  He's a decent salary saver with hopes of finishing 20th-25th for 10 or so position difference points.
  

Watch for a final update with sample lineups on Sunday morning.

  

Photo c/o www.stewarthaasracing.com

It was a mixed bag for us in the Vegas race.

We were right in pushing Harvick, Larson, Truex and Keselowski.  Harvick, of course, dominated and all four finished in the top six.

We were also right in pushing Paul Menard, Aric Almirola and Ryan Newman.  This trio finished 9th, 10th and 11th, respectively.  They had good points days and also scored some solid position difference bonus points.

What killed some of our lineups was Michael McDowell.  We noted that he seemed like the best car in his price range, but that he carried significant risk due to his 15th starting spot.  That left the door open to big time negative points if he had a problem.  Well he did have a problem.  Things looked good for the first 100 laps.  McDowell had led 11 laps due to an alternate pit strategy and was on the lead lap running in the 17th position.  But early in Stage 2, he lost the motor and had to retire the car.  He finished last and scored negative points on DK.

I was able to save some face with a lineup based on drivers we featured here -- Harvick, Keselowski, Larson, Newman, Almirola and Chris Buescher.  I had too much exposure to McDowell and needed to put in a few with an alternate low cost guy.  This line-up returned about 6X and was only about 10-12 points away from being a tournament winning lineup.

If McDowell had not had the mechanical problem, I really think our primary lineups would have returned some good money.  But the risk we identified came to pass.  At least we had enough alternatives to pick some to help salvage something from today.  We'll continue aiming for the top as we go forward to Phoenix next week.

Phoenix -- Looking ahead to Phoenix, the field has to be worried about what Harvick might do there.  He is just on another level right now and in the last nine Phoenix races, he has five wins and has not finished lower than 6th.  Amazing.  Kyle Busch has also been strong there, finishing no worse than 7th in the last five Phoenix races.

We'll be back in a couple of days with our formal Phoenix preview and initial driver targets.

UPDATE:  Sick to my stomach with McDowell blowing up there.  Just bad luck.

​There are so many different ways to go this week.  I really like four cars -- Harvick, Truex, Larson and Keselowski.  It's impossible to get all four in a lineup though.  Here are a couple of possible lineups that I'll be rolling with on Sunday.

• Harvick, Truex, Larson, Ryan Newman, Ty Dillon and Michael McDowell -- Newman showed some decent speed in Saturday practice.  So did Ty Dillon.  In fact, he was all the way up to 7th in 10 lap average during final practice -- besting the likes of Joey Logano and Clint Bowyer in that department.  With their deep starting positions, we're hoping to pick-up 10-15 position difference points per driver.
• Harvick, Truex, Keselowski, Aric Almirola, Ty Dillon, McDowell
• Larson, Keselowski, Logano, Almirola, Newman, Bubba Wallace

As always, review the full lists below.  Have fun and enjoy the race on Sunday.  We'll be back with a race review and debrief by Monday morning.