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Kansas trucks

4/29/2021

FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATES IN BOLD -- BETS ADDED AT THE BOTTOM
SATURDAY UPDATE -- A FEW BETTING NOTES ADDED

We've got a 200 mile, 134 lap Trucks Series race on Saturday evening. I'm going to break this article down by categories of drivers that I think are good cash game plays.

The Dominators

Kyle Busch vs John Hunter Nemechek - There are good arguments for both. Busch dominated the last 1.5 mile track at Atlanta and -- let's be honest -- most of JHN's laps led in that race came because Busch let him by at the end of both stages so JHN could get the playoff bonus point for winning the stage. That was a day time race at a track with extreme tire wear. Kansas is closer to Las Vegas (a night time race with moderate tire wear), where JHN dominated earlier this year. Although, in that race, Kyle had to start in the back and also got a flat tire after making his way through the field.
I haven't decided what I'm doing with these guys yet. One will be there for sure. But which one? Or both? With Kyle starting 2nd, I do think this is probably closer to Atlanta than Las Vegas. But Kyle really has to crush it to make it pay for this salary. And you've got to make some major tradeoffs with the rest of your lineup. This will be a tough one for me and may go down to the wire on Saturday evening.
As of Friday night, I'm leaning toward playing both of these guys and just not using the Position Difference Guys. On their very best day, I don't see any of the Position Difference Guys blowing past 5x their salary. They are just too expensive. But both of these guys can do that and at least one of them almost certainly will. And barring a failure or wreck, it's very unlikely either of these guys finish outside the Top 3.

The Position Difference Guys

Ross Chastain - Ran 7th in his only other race this year at Atlanta. When they have a good driver (Chastain or Moffitt), the Niece trucks are roughly 8th-12th place trucks.
Grant Enfinger - Grant is going to be super popular this week, but people need to understand he's not in his normal ThorSport ride. He is in the #9 which is Codie Rohrbaugh's truck and is not a top level team. Enfinger ran with this same team earlier this year and was really impressive with a 7th place finish. There was a lot of chaos late in the race which allowed him to finish a little better than he ran most of the race, but it was still a really good effort. I wouldn't bank on another Top 10, but something in the 10th-15th range is reasonable. Chastain's the better play if you can afford it, but Grant might be a better bang for the buck. It's close between those two. Grant is $1k cheaper than Chase Briscoe, though, so is easily the more economical play there.
Chase Briscoe - Chase is in the #04 which is normally driven by Cory Roper. This is not a top level team and he probably won't have Top 10 speed. On his best day, Roper might sneak into the Top 20 at a 1.5 mile track. Give Chase a few more spots and figure he might finish around 15th. I'd rather save $1k and use Enfinger or go up the $500 to Chastain. As of Friday night, Briscoe is off my board. If I go here, it will definitely be for Chastain or Enfinger.

Midrange Guys

Christian Eckes - Eckes is in the #98 ThorSport truck over Grant Enfinger this week. He finished 9th in this truck at Las Vegas earlier this year and has a good chance at another Top 10 finish this weekend. He had 2nd and 6th place finishes in the #18 Kyle Busch Motorsports truck at Kansas last year.
Timmy Hill - I often really like this truck when Timmy is driving. Last season, they finished inside the Top 20 at the last six 1.5 mile track races -- including three Top 20 finishes at Kansas (19th, 16th and 14th). Timmy is a solid bet to bring home a Top 20.
Bayley Currey - He'll be in the #45 Niece truck that has been driven by Brett Moffitt to 11th and 9th place finishes at the two 1.5 mile tracks this season. I wouldn't count on Curry for a Top 10, but a finish around 15th seems doable.
Jordan Anderson - He was running inside the Top 15 at Las Vegas earlier this season before getting taken out in a wreck. This truck often seems to have decent speed but is always running into some kind of problem. There is Top 20 upside here for sure, but I have more confidence in the other drivers in this group. The 36th starting spot does provide a real safe floor and significant upside though.
Ryan Truex - He could finish inside the Top 20, but I think this is too expensive for what he offers. The other four are much better choices here.

Cheap Options

Tanner Gray - It's crazy for a DGR truck to be sub-$6k. He's run 12th and 19th at the two 1.5 mile track races this year and has Kansas experience. The salary reflects that he's just a really risky choice.
Chase Purdy - It's even crazier for a GMS truck to be sub-$6k. But in six races this year, Purdy has one finish better than 22nd. That's absurd for someone who has been in a GMS truck all year.
Brett Holmes - Starts 32nd and was running near the Top 20 when he got taken out in a wreck earlier this season at Las Vegas. Brett doesn't have a lot of truck experience, but this appears to be a pretty decent truck and he's got a much safer floor than Gray or Purdy -- and more upside than Fogleman or Boyd below.
Tate Fogleman - Generally a Top 20ish truck at the 1.5 mile tracks as long as they don't run into any issues. But issues aren't all that uncommon for this team either. It's an awful safe floor starting from 35th though.
Spencer Boyd - The absolute cheapest playable piece here. Not much upside, but Boyd is a veteran driver who won't do anything stupid and should finish at least a few spots above where he starts.

Bets

Z. Smith -130 C. Briscoe - based on Briscoe not having a top tier ride here
M. Crafton -120 G. Enfinger - based on Enfinger not having a top tier ride this week
I'm tempted by S. Friesen Ev G. Enfinger - I haven't played this yet, but I'm close

The lines on all three of the H2H's I posted Friday moved so good closing value on those. Adding one more play on Saturday --

C. Smith -125 T. Gilliland

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talladega Cup

4/24/2021

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Don't have much more to say about this one. Start guys in the back. I'd use 28th on back as my possible player pool for cash games. 3 of the last 4 Talladega Cup Series races have had 3+ large, multi-car wrecks. In those three races, we've averaged only 20 cars finishing on the lead lap with 13 cars out of the race completely from the wrecks. Weather forecast looks good for Sunday, which means we should go the full length with plenty of opportunities to wreck. Good luck.

Bets

Stenhouse +140 Kurt Busch

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talladega xfinity

4/23/2021

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I'll be using the typical cash game strategy of rostering guys starting in the back hoping to avoid any crushing negative scores when the wrecks take place. With how the field lines up, I see no reason to use anyone starting above 30th position in cash games. So I'll give you a few thoughts about each of the drivers from 30th on back to help you decide which of them to use--

30th Alex Labbe - Good driver and solid, reliable equipment. He's finished in the Top 10 the last two Talladega races. My only issue with Labbe is that he tends to try to race with the lead pack and is often in the mid-pack "danger zone" for the wrecks. If he stays clean, another Top 10 is very possible.
31st Mason Massey - Massey will be in the #99 car for BJ McLeod's team. For all the Team McLeod cars, I really like that they drop back out of the lead pack and ride around together in the back to avoid the wrecks. The problem is that they're not the most reliable cars and have some mechanical breakdowns. If the car doesn't fail, these guys tend to get Top 20 runs at the superspeedways as other cars wreck out and they are left standing at the end.
32nd Landon Cassill - Similar profile to Alex Labbe. I'd probably give a slight edge to Cassill as the better driver and a slight edge to Labbe as being the more reliable car. Cassill will probably try to stick with the lead pack and might find himself in the danger zone for a chunk of the race.
33rd Jeffrey Earnhardt - Same team and profile as Landon Cassill.
34th Jess Little - Jess is a solid driver in a BJ McLeod car. Very close to an ideal cash game play at a superspeedway. Ran in the back and finished 17th at Daytona this Spring after everyone wrecked out.
35th Joe Graf Jr - He's a bit of a wild card because he's gone back and forth between trying to run with the lead pack and laying back. There's Top 15 upside here for sure as shown by his 11th place finish at Daytona earlier this year. Should be really popular.
36th Matt Mills - Pretty much the same profile as Jess Little. Mills has a very solid track record at the superspeedways -- 16th, 16th and 21st in the last three.
37th Colby Howard - It made no sense, but he was up in the lead pack racing aggressively at Daytona earlier this year. A lot of upside, but he worries me as being a bit more risky.
38th Natalie Decker - She's actually had some decent runs on superspeedways in the Trucks Series -- including a 5th place finish at Daytona last year. This should be a reliable car and she's got an experienced spotter (and former driver). She's in play for sure.
39th Ryan Vargas - Same as Colby Howard although Vargas did hang back a bit more at Daytona. This guy just needs to finish a race so it makes all the sense in the world for him to ride in the back in this race.
40th Jason White - Ran well with a different team at Daytona finishing 10th. He did run a good chunk of that race in the mid-pack danger zone though. Hard to pass up starting 40th.

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Richmond Trucks

4/16/2021

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UPDATES IN BOLD BELOW

My two cash game locks are Kyle Busch and Timmy Hill.

With Kyle, we've got 250 laps in this race on Saturday, so that gives him plenty of time to rack up the laps led and fastest laps points that he'll need to pay off the salary. He's by far the best driver in the race with by far the most experience at this track. If he leads 100 laps, runs 50 fastest laps and wins the race (all of which are very reasonable projections), he'll score 103.5 DK points and be well over 6x his salary. For me, there's just too much potential for Kyle to absolutely blow up the slate to fade him.
Timmy is one of the better drivers in this field and his truck is good enough to finish in the Top 20. He finished 9th at Richmond last year and was legitimately that good. He ran almost 90% of the laps in the Top 15 in that race and passed trucks from larger, better funded teams on track.

You can still afford one of Sam Meyer or Derek Kraus.

On the plus side for Sam, he starts 40th and is really good at short, flat tracks. On the negative side, he's not with GMS who he raced with last year. He's with a small, family owned start up team that has some connection to GMS, but is not a full GMS team. So the equipment speed and reliability are big question marks. If Sam was in a GMS truck, I'd put him in the Top 10 at the end of this race. In this truck, be realistic and say 15th-20th is a reasonable projection for him. He's not going to lead laps or run fastest laps. With a 20th place finish, he scores 43 DK points. A 15th place finish is 53 DK points. Very safe floor. Just understand the ceiling is quite limited as well.
Kraus missed the set up terribly at Richmond last year and seemed to be riding on the splitter in the corners which made him not be able to turn the truck. He was awful. I'm sure he'll be better here this year and he's probably got a little more upside than Meyer. Meyer is by far the safer play, but the salary difference is significant.

Or you can take a chance on Chandler Smith or Johnny Sauter.

Smith finished 12th here last year and then finished 3rd later in the season at Phoenix -- which has some similarities to Richmond. But this is also a guy that runs into a lot of problems and is just so up and down. There's Top 10 potential here and he is a solid play at a very reasonable price.
I grouped these two together because their salaries are so close and they're basically the same profile -- Top 10 potential with a lot of potential to finish worse than 30th as well. You just can't safely predict where either of these guys will end up from week to week.
At the end of the day, I'm probably staying away in cash, but using in a lineup or two in a larger tournament.

Salary Savers

Dawson Cram -- Just a function of decent salary, starting spot and some experience.
Timothy Peters -- Same but with more experience.
Danny Bohn -- Same as Cram.
Ryan Reed -- Old name from the Xfinity Series where he had a lot of success at plate tracks. He's in a Ray Ciccarelli truck here, so it's not going to have real great speed or reliability. He's a respectable driver though, so he should be able to finish in the Top 30 if the truck stays in one piece. They were still looking for tire money mid week, but I'd be surprised if Reed were coming back to park in the middle of the race. SATURDAY UPDATE - LOOKS LIKE HE GOT SPONSORSHIP FROM CAMPING WORLD, SO FIRE HIM UP WITH CONFIDENCE
Tate Fogleman -- If you need to go to the extreme on savings, this is the last decent option. He finished 15th (Richmond), 18th (Gateway) and 19th (Phoenix) at three of the shorter, flat tracks last year.

Bets - I like some H2H bets for this race

Enfinger -125 Moffitt -- Moffitt's not in a GMS truck anymore. This is way off.
Lessard +150 Meyer -- Also not is a GMS truck anymore.
Ankrum +135 Meyer -- Same

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martinsville cup

4/9/2021

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500 laps of Cup Series racing hopefully on Saturday night coming up. Rain is forecast, so we could have some curveballs thrown our way with this one.

Martin Truex - I think the lineup has to start with him. He was really good here in both races last year and was the only driver who led 100+ laps in both races. No one else even came close to that. Logano nailed the Spring race but didn't lead in the Fall. Elliott nailed the Fall race but didn't lead in the Spring. Truex was strong throughout. And he won and ran really well at Phoenix a few weeks ago -- which is our only remotely comparable track from this year. So I'm locking him in.
Joey Logano - With 500 laps, we really need to shoot for two or even three bulk lap leaders. This is a really good track for Joey and he starts from the pole, so there's a good chance he leads a chunk of laps early on. There is a competition caution at Lap 60 though, so we know the field will get reset pretty early in this one. He led 234 laps and ran 61 fastest laps in the Spring night race here last year. He was also very good earlier this season at Phoenix, finishing 2nd while leading 143 laps and running 38 fastest laps. He and Truex were the best at the end of that Phoenix race and had a good battle for the lead.
Chase Elliott - What Logano did here in the Spring last year, Elliott did in the Fall. In that race, he led 236 laps and ran 110 fastest laps. And he was able to do that despite having some long pit stops and losing ground on pit road. Having crushed the last race, we really have to give him strong consideration here.
Kurt Busch / Aric Almirola / Bubba Wallace - These are the guys in the mid-range that offer some pretty nice position difference upside.
- Kurt finished 9th and 5th here last year and he's finished inside the Top 12 the last six races here. He's probably a little too expensive since he's unlikely to lead laps or run many fastest laps, but he should be good for another Top 12 run.
- Over the years, Almirola has pretty consistently been a Top 15 guy here, including a 7th place finish last Fall. But he also finished 33rd and 37th in the two prior Martinsville races, so it's not all great news. (I'm writing off last Spring when he finished 33rd though because it was one of the first post-COVID races and he had a battery issue that ruined his night.) A few weeks ago at Phoenix, he started 32nd and finished 11th, and we'd be looking for something similar here. The $8,100 price tag is affordable with the position difference upside that's on the table.
- Bubba has been very solid here even in weaker equipment for RPM. He finished 21st last Fall, but had finishes of 11th, 13th and 17th in the three races before that. He's now in stronger equipment so it's very reasonable to think a Top 15 finish is likely. That would work very well with him starting 25th for only $7,300.
- I do think Matt DiBenedetto could also be a strong option for a Top 10 finish here, but I really can't recommend him for cash games right now. He just seems to have too many issues for me to feel comfortable with him. I'd rather save a few hundred bucks and go with Bubba.
- I feel similar with Cole Custer. He's awfully cheap though, so I could see using him. I just don't really like how the Stewart-Haas cars are running right now and Custer doesn't have the best of track records here at Martinsville - especially since the Xfinity Series didn't run here while Custer was in that Series.
Ross Chastain / Anthony Alfredo / Corey LaJoie - These are your cheapest options.
- Ross is still too aggressive and will probably end up getting spun out by someone getting back at him. But he's cheap and starts 27th, so there's some reason to take the chance on him since this should really be a Top 20 car. He ran well at Martinsville in the Xfinity race last year. And he finished 19th earlier this year at Phoenix.
- Alfredo and LaJoie are a mess and have been terrible this year. But they are starting really far back here and are cheap. They should be able to finish in the 25th-28th range and that's all we really need at their salary to make it work. It's less about them being good plays then it is about having to use their salaries to get the lap leaders we need to have in our lineup for a 500 lap short track race.

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martinsville xfinity

4/8/2021

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FRIDAY UPDATES IN BOLD BELOW

We're back for Xfinity Series short track racing on a Friday night. 250 laps is a lot for an Xfinity Series race, so we really need to be aware of the laps led and fastest laps points for this one. Also, last year was the first year in a long time that the Xfinity Series has raced at Martinsville, so we don't have a whole lot of data at this track to work from. Let's get to it--

I feel really good about Harrison Burton and Justin Allgaier leading a chunk of laps at some point in this race. They both had excellent cars here last year and finished the race 1st and 2nd.
- Burton led 81 laps and ran 53 fastest laps last year, so his numbers clearly show how strong he was.
- Allgaier, on the other hand, didn't lead any laps and had only 11 fastest laps last year. But, from the TV broadcast, it was clear they made a bad adjustment early in the race and then got it back to where he wanted it late in the race when the sun went down. By that time, he was right where he needed to be to advance to the Championship Race the following week (Martinsville was the 2nd to the last race of the season last year), so he didn't need to or want to push it. But his car very well could have been the best out there at the end of the race in conditions that will be most similar to the night race on Friday. Allgaier was also awesome at Richmond last year, which also features very flat, slow corners. And, at Phoenix earlier this season, he led 32 laps and ran 34 fastest laps. For their prices, using these two is a great way to get double exposure to likely dominators.
A.J. Allmendinger is the other guy I'd say is most likely to lead laps. He charged from the back of the field in this race last year and used an alternative pit strategy to get the lead for 68 laps. He cut a tire racing Burton for the lead on a late restart, so finished a few laps down in 26th place. To be clear, I really, really like AJ's chances to lead laps and possibly win this race. But I have two concerns with him that I don't have for Burton or Allgaier -- (1) his price, which is almost $3k more than Burton and almost $2k more than Allgaier and (2) pit stops. On the pit stops, I don't think his crew is quite as quick as Burton or Allgaier, although I'm still looking for actual data to back that up. Regardless, AJ also has Brandon Jones pitting right in front of him, so he won't have an easy straight out of his box like Burton (open box in front) or Allgaier (1st pit box) will have. So, even if AJ can get the lead on track, there's a pretty good chance he loses it on pit road -- which weakens his dominator potential. Conversely, I could easily see Burton or Allgaier coming onto pit road 2nd or 3rd and coming out 1st.
I like Ty Gibbs as well. We know he'll have a great car and he's got some position difference upside starting from 16th. I think he, Brandon Jones and Brett Moffitt are all solid cash game plays, with Gibbs having the most upside, but also the highest price tag. I do think Jones and Moffitt should be +15 position difference guys if they can avoid any issues.
A wildcard in all this is Austin Cindric. He led early here last year because he started from the pole, but was never really a factor as the race went along. But we don't know how much of that was because he basically just needed to finish the race in one piece to advance onto the Championship Race last year. And, we saw him go out and dominate at Phoenix earlier this year, which is the only track these guys have been on this year that is even remotely comparable to Martinsville. I don't see him as a cash game play with his price and the other options above, but it wouldn't shock me to see him crush this race as well.
If Josh Berry can't finish well here, he's never going to finish well anywhere. This is exactly the kind of track where his late model experience should elevate him. Starting 29th, he's probably a lock play for cash games as he should finish in the Top 10 if he doesn't wreck himself out again.
On the salary saver side, there are actually a number of decent options. David Starr, Stefan Parsons and possibly even Matt Mills over some really cheap plays with nowhere to go but up. I'd rank them in that order if price is no factor. However, I also think Timmy Hill is in play as well. While it's risky because he starts 20th, he did finish 17th here last year and he finished 14th earlier this year at Phoenix. At short tracks like this, there's almost no chance of him doing a start and park, so that isn't an issue here either. I do expect this to be a pretty crazy race, but if he doesn't get taken out and the car doesn't break, I don't think he goes backwards from that 20th starting spot. I like him over Matt Mills if you're going down in the sub-$5k range.
- THINKING MORE ABOUT THE PUNTS, I'M REMOVING MATT MILLS AND DAVID STARR. FOR MILLS, LITTLE UPSIDE AND TOO UNRELIABLE. FOR STARR, HE'S FINE BUT THERE'S NO REASON TO SPEND MORE TO GET TO HIM SINCE THE CHEAPER OPTIONS ARE JUST AS GOOD (IF NOT BETTER).
- ADDING JADE BUFORD AS A BETTER CHOICE THEN MILLS OR STARR BECAUSE HE CAN ACTUALLY FINISH AROUND 20TH. SO THE DECENT PUNTS ARE PARSONS, BUFORD AND TIMMY HILL.
J.J. Yeley is another good option starting 33rd, although his salary of $7,300 is higher than we'd like it to be. But he's a good, veteran driver who ran well here at Martinsville last year (finished 14th) despite getting spun out by Justin Haley. Yeley also finished 13th earlier this season in this same car at Phoenix. He should be good for +15 position difference if he has no issues and he feels much safer than some of the other options starting back there -- better driver in a better car.

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