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indy Road course (cup)

7/30/2022

Here are my top drivers for Sunday's Cup Series race on the Indy road course--

Ross Chastain - What's not to like? Top 7 finishes at all three road course races this year, backed up by being in the Top 8 in green flag speed at each of those races. He had the 4th quickest single lap in practice Saturday, but just didn't measure up in qualifying, so starts 21st. Great floor and upside. He also ran really well in the Xfinity race on Saturday.
Austin Dillon - Another guy who ran fine in practice (12th) but slipped in qualifying (29th). He's really improved his road course skill and has already finished 10th and 11th at two road courses this year. He was also running in the Top 15 late at Road America before a flat tire ended his race there.
Hendrick Cars (Kyle Larson 22nd, William Byron 23rd and Alex Bowman 28th) - It seems like the whole company missed the set up pretty badly as they weren't much quicker in practice. Unlike the JGR teams, however, all three have shown Top 10-12 green flag speed at the road courses earlier this year, so there's a lot of reason to think it was just a bad day Saturday and they'll get something figured out for Sunday. I feel pretty strongly that Larson and Byron will rebound and end up doing pretty well. They both were in the Top 3 late at Indy last year before the curbing came up and destroyed Byron's car and turned the race into a shit show. Bowman is more of a mystery to me, but he's also really cheap at $7,800.
A.J. Allmendinger - Again showed his road course mastery in Saturday's Xfinity win. He is just so good at being under control and not overdriving the car, which is key at a road course. He was 8th in practice speed. He won here last year in the Cup Series (although it was a fluke) and nearly won at COTA earlier this year.
Eric Jones and Ricky Stenhouse - Classic high floor but low ceiling plays. There's really no reason to think either can finish inside the Top 20 given their lack of speed in practice and general lack of speed at road courses. But they also start 35th and 38th respectively and should have enough to move up +10 position difference over the course of the race.
Cole Custer and Ty Gibbs - Probably too risky for cash games, but I like their upside to gain +10 position difference and finish well inside the Top 20. Custer has been 9th, 18th and 9th in green flag speed at the three road course races this year. He was running inside the Top 10 here last year before the curbing stuff/shit show at the end of the race. And he has more experience here then most others from his time in the Xfinity Series. Gibbs is in a fast car and has a lot of road course talent. If he doesn't overdrive it, he could surprise on Sunday.

Glad to be back with some notes for the Indy road course race for the Xfinity Series on Saturday. Here are the guys at the top of my driver pool -- remembering that I'm focused mostly on cash games and single-entry tournaments:

Brandon Jones - Obviously. He's not very good on road courses and has been overly aggressive at times, which could get him in trouble. But starting 36th for only $7,600 in a Joe Gibbs car is a no brainer for cash games and smaller tournaments. On pure straightaway speed alone he should gain 20 spots. I do like fading him and hoping he wrecks in the largest, multi-entry tournaments.
A.J. Allmendinger - Far and away the best road course driver in the Xfinity Series, I fully expect him to lead laps and run fastest laps on Saturday. While starting 1st carries some risk, AJ has finished 1st or 2nd in seven of the last nine road course races in the Series, so I'm not worried about him losing many positions. And he's not so expensive as to kill the rest of your lineup.
Ross Chastain - I do have some concerns about the quality of the car, but the thing DGM knows best is bringing fast cars on road courses with strong drivers like Alex Labbe and Preston Pardus. Ross ran with the same team at COTA earlier this year and ranked 4th in green flag speed. He was running 2nd late in that race, but got spun on a restart and fell back in the field. At Indy, he starts 18th and has upside to finish comfortably inside the Top 10. He's not going to lead laps or run fastest laps, but he could still easily beat a 5x return.
Jeremy Clements - He doesn't have great results at the road courses this year, but he has been 18th or better in green flag speed at all three events. And he's finished 13th and 14th in the two Indy road course races the last two years. I think he can gain 10+ positions from his 29th starting spot and I trust him and his car more then a lot of the other guys starting 25th on back.
Kaz Grala - Starts 24th in the #48 car, which is essentially RCR level equipment. Kaz has very good history at road courses and I believe he can finish inside the Top 15 if all goes well. Again, a lot of it comes down to trusting the driver and, perhaps more importantly, the quality of the car in this price range.
Santino Ferrucci - Starts 30th in the #26 car. Ferrucci has an IndyCar background with plenty of experience on road courses. He's also done enough racing in the Xfinity Series to be very familiar with those cars. He's in a good car and has as much upside as anyone back here.
Parker Klingerman - Starts 37th in the #35 for Emerling-Gase. They had a mechanical issue in practice and said it would be fixed by qualifying, but it wasn't, so they made no qualifying attempt and got into the race on owners points. Parker finished 12th at COTA with the same team and has shown a lot of road course ability. It makes me nervous, but it has a lot of upside if the car is fixed and ready to go.
Austin Dillon/Miguel Paludo - I'd have no problem with either of these guys. Austin is in the #68 that normally belongs to Brandon Brown. So it's a decent car and Austin has improved his road racing ability lately. Paludo is in a Jr Motorsports car and he's had some decent results in that car on road courses.
- Speaking of Brandon Brown, do not use him because he's in a very slow Mike Harmon car this weekend.
Ryan Sieg, Anthony Alfredo, Patrick Gallagher and Kyle Weatherman are also guys to consider for cash games. Brett Moffitt is a guy I'm looking at in larger tournament settings.

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Update

7/17/2022

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Just wanted to do a quick update. All is good, just too busy with family and life to spend the extra time on write ups the last month or so. I will not be doing anything for Pocono, but I do plan getting back in the game here for the Indy Road Course and beyond.

Thanks for your support!

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indy Road course (cup)

Indy Road Course (Xfinity)

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