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Charlotte

5/26/2022

I'll be posting Xfinity on Friday night and Cup on Saturday night this weekend. Good luck.

Cup
Another weird practice and qualifying session leaves us with a lot of position difference plays starting further back then expected. Let's go through the guys I think will be most popular and talk about a few pivots--

Kyle Larson - He's going to be a very tough fade here. He starts 36th, but still has race winning upside -- especially in an extra long 400 lap race. It would be no surprise to see him in the Top 10 in Stage 1 and near the lead in Stage 2 with 200+ laps still to go for dominator points. There's really nothing I can say against him other then that his ownership will be sky high. So, if you want to be different in tournaments, fade away.
Corey LaJoie - Another tough fade since he's so cheap and starting dead last. He hits 5x by finishing 27th or better and he has a pretty good history at Charlotte, including a 19th place run last year.
Brad Keselowski - Starts 35th, so offers that low floor with +20 position difference upside. He's a good play, but not as clear of a must play to me because of his struggles at intermediate tracks this season. He has only one finish better than 20th and hasn't had a green flag speed rating better than 17th. He also wasn't fast in practice and had a slide and slow qualifying lap. That said, all he needs to do is finish 20th or better to exceed the 5x return we're always looking for. I think he can get there, but I wouldn't expect much more.
- I think you could pivot off BK to a lower priced driver like Todd Gilliland, who can probably score within about 10-15 DK points of Brad for $1,600 cheaper. Aric Almirola is also an option at a similar salary as he's been much stronger at intermediate tracks with two 6th place finishes (Las Vegas and Auto Club) and an 11th place finish at Darlington - which used the same tire combination being used at Charlotte.
Ricky Stenhouse - He starts 29th and has done his best work at intermediate tracks this season. He has four Top 10 finishes and finished outside the Top 10 only at Las Vegas (where he was 21st). He's also done it starting further back in the field (started 26th at Darlington and 36th at Kansas). He's always risky, though, so not a must have.
- The pivots here would be to Eric Jones or up a bit to Kevin Harvick or Austin Dillon. I can't say I love any of those options because they all appear to have limited upside. I can't really see Harvick or Dillon cracking the Top 5, so you're hoping to squeeze into the Top 10 at best.
Ross Chastain - Ross is in a great spot starting 22nd. He's got a safer floor and plenty of time to work towards the front. He's had the best green flag speed overall at the last four intermediate track races. His practice times also looked pretty good as he didn't seem to fall off as much as some others the more laps he ran.
- Joey Logano is a decent pivot off Ross for a cheaper salary, but there's not nearly the same upside. Unlike Chastain, I just can't see Logano getting up front and leading laps unless he somehow gets a lucky break on a caution using a unique pit strategy.
Martin Truex - Love Truex here starting 14th. He's been very good at the 600 and was fastest in 5 and 10 lap average speed in practice.
- I could also see using Denny Hamlin or Kyle Busch as all the Toyotas looked really strong in practice after a strong performance at the last intermediate track in Kansas. Chase Elliott is also in play as he's got a great history at Charlotte.

Xfinity
With the way qualifying played out, we're going to have a lot of lineups looking alike. I'm going to go over what should be the popular plays with a few pivots off them.

Ty Gibbs and Riley Herbst - A lot of lineups will probably start with these two. Gibbs, in particular, has a huge ceiling starting from the back with a car we know will have race winning type speed. Herbst is probably still the way to go in cash games, but I wouldn't hesitate pivoting off him in other contests. While his results have been surprisingly consistent this year, he's still not someone I can fully trust.
Brandon Brown and Myatt Snider - I think a lot of lineups will also feature these two at $7k and under starting 32nd and 33rd. They've both got +15 position difference upside with high floors starting so far back. Garrett Smithley is also a position difference option in the same price range. He's an experienced Xfinity Series driver who is in Alex Labbe's normal car this week because Labbe didn't have sponsorship for the entire year. I don't think he has quite the upside that Brown and Snider do. A pivot I do like in this range is Jeremy Clements. He starts a little further forward (23rd), but if he can come close to repeating his 11th place finish at Las Vegas earlier this year, he would be a huge bargain at only $6,400.
Anthony Alfredo and Jeffrey Earnhardt - Two more major position difference plays in a similar price range. I do like Alfredo and he seems to be developing more consistency this year finishing in the Top 15 most weeks. Earnhardt can be a little hit or miss and the car failure in practice concerns me to some extent. But he does start dead last and can only move forward. That car does typically have Top 20 speed. The pivots off them would probably be Ryan Sieg or Austin Hill. Particularly Hill should have the speed to break the Top 10 if things go perfectly.

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texas

5/19/2022

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It will be Xfinity only for me this weekend. I'll post my notes here late Friday night after practice and qualifying.

Looks like we'll have some real popular drivers in cash games and single entry tournaments. Here is how I see most lineup builds going--

Grab at least two of the decent guys starting from 32nd on back
- Landon Cassill -- Plenty of experience here, good car, should be able to finish in the Top 12
- Anthony Alfredo -- He's finished 17th or better in ten out of eleven races this season and will easily hit value if he does so again
- Alex Labbe -- He's finished inside the Top 20 in eight of the last nine races this season and has experience here
- Jeffrey Earnhardt -- This team has a couple of Top 5 finishes with John Hunter Nemechek driver, but has otherwise struggled for consistency - maybe a little pricey for the risk and limited upside you're getting
Grab one or two potential leaders
- Noah Gragson - starts up front and it's hard to pass here under the green flag - wasn't the fastest in practice, but also did not fall off much at all over his long practice run
- William Byron - expensive, but has both position difference and lap leader potential - he might take a little while to settle in to the car after being away from Xfinity for several years, but I expect him to be fighting near the front as the race moves along
- Ty Gibbs - the #54 team won both Texas races last year with Kyle Busch and John Hunter Nemechek driving - but this is Ty's first Texas race, so can he continue the streak?
- Justin Allgaier - running as well as anyone right now and has a ton of Texas experience
Fill it out
- Ryan Vargas - got loose in practice and qualifying, but had good speed - finished pretty well on lower wear 1.5 mile tracks last season (24th and 22nd at Texas)
- C.J. McLaughlin - sub-$5k is just too cheap for a halfway decent car that can't really go backwards - he finished 24th earlier this year at Las Vegas, which is a reasonable expectation here
- Sheldon Creed - priced way down at $8,100 in a car that should have Top 10 speed and maybe a bit more

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kansas cup

5/14/2022

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We had three cars that didn't take qualifying times and will start in the back. Let's deal with them first--

Chris Buescher and Ricky Stenhouse - I don't see how you can not use them in cash games and most single entry contests. Buescher in particular is one of the steadier drivers in the series and a very safe play. Stenhouse can be erratic, but has his best two finishes of the season the last two weeks. I'm not feeling real good about any other sub-$7k plays other than Todd Gilliland at $4,900. That's a crazy cheap price with him starting that far back with a safe floor.
Joey Logano - Logano is a little trickier for me because I really like a lot of guys hovering around the $10k mark. Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain, William Byron, Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin all look good to me, so it's difficult deciding among this group whether you want to go for laps led and fastest laps potential or go the position difference path. At the end of the day, Logano offers such a super safe floor, with tremendous upside, that it will be hard to fade him. I could see it though if you feel strongly about others in this price range.
Brad Keselowski - $7,400 is a real attractive price tag with Brad starting back in the 30th position. If all he does is finish 18th, you've still got your 5x return.
Kevin Harvick - Harvick has finished no worse then 4th in the last four Kansas races. He starts 23rd on Sunday and offers a good +15 position difference upside. The question is whether he's worth the $8,700 salary when you have someone like Keselowski sitting there at $7,400. Harvick should clearly finish this race better then BK, but who will offer the better bang for the buck?
Ross Chastain - Ross had the #2 green flag speed earlier this year at Las Vegas - which is the closest comp to Kansas this season. He started 18th, finished 3rd, led 83 laps and ran 28 fastest laps for 89 DK points at Vegas. He's been #1 in green flag speed the last two weeks at Dover and Darlington. It's hard to bet against him being one of the best cars out there on Sunday.
Kyle Busch - Was a close 2nd to Christopher Bell in 10-lap average speed in practice on Saturday. Going back to Las Vegas, he started 37th, finished 4th, led 49 laps and ran 26 fastest laps for 101 DK points. He was also really fast at Dover just two weeks ago - which isn't a crazy comp to Kansas.
Chase Elliott and William Byron - Really in the same boat to me as guys who we can expect to finish in the Top 8 or so at Kansas. They weren't great in practice or at Las Vegas earlier this year, though, so this is more of a faith in prior performance here moving them towards the front.
Denny Hamlin - He had the top green flag speed at Las Vegas earlier this year, so there's good reason to think he'll be fast on Sunday. My concern is the mistakes. This team has one Top 12 finish in twelve races this year. With Denny starting from the rear, there are just more opportunities for mistakes. I can see it working out, but it's too risky for me.
Christopher Bell - Reasonable salary and he probably leads some early. My concerns include mistakes from this team and the likelihood we see an early Stage 1 competition caution because of heavy rain overnight on Saturday night/Sunday morning. Can he hold the lead through two starts and a pit stop cycle?

Kevin Harvick +700 Top Ford

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darlington cup

5/7/2022

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More practice/qualifying drama leaves us with some very chalky plays for cash games and single entry contests on Sunday. Let's go through my top options --

Kevin Harvick - Starts 35th after being unable to qualify because of a flat tire and resulting damage in practice. He's finished inside the Top 5 in eight of the last ten Darlington races, so is consistently very good here. A Top 5 is a stretch starting from the back, but a Top 10 and +25 position difference points is certainly a realistic projection.
Chase Elliott - Starts 34th after also having a tire go down in practice and making hard contact with the outside wall. He'll be in a backup car for Sunday. He's generally very fast at Darlington, but hasn't always gotten the finishing position he probably deserved. That said, he has a very safe floor and Top 10 upside just like Harvick.
Denny Hamlin - Hamlin had a diffuser issue on Saturday and will be starting from the rear even though he officially has the 22nd starting spot. In the last ten Darlington races, he has three wins and seven Top 5 finishes. He doesn't have quite the same high floor and ceiling as Harvick and Elliott, but I feel like Hamlin is the most likely of that group to get up front and lead laps - although that's still pretty unlikely.
Kyle Larson - Larson has finished 2nd in the his last three Darlington races. Last Fall, he led 156 laps and ran 86 fastest laps, scoring 123.7 DK points. He starts 2nd on Sunday and I wouldn't be surprised to see him challenge Joey Logano for the early lead. However, Larson has been a relative disappointment at times this year since he's been unable to dominate and run away with races as he did so often last year. I feel that dominant performance is coming, so it is scary to fade him -- but I get it given his performance so far this year and other tempting options.
Martin Truex and Ross Chastain are other prime dominator targets starting in the Top 10. (I personally don't have enough confidence in Joey Logano holding the early lead to go that direction.)
Some mid-level guys I'm interested in are Brad Keselowski, Ricky Stenhouse and Cole Custer.
- Keselowski has a pretty decent history here (albeit in a little better car) and Roush has been OK as an organization here as well. He starts 23rd and it seems reasonable to think he can gain 5+ places and make it worth a sub-$8k salary. He wasn't overly quick in practice on Saturday, but he did make a long run that should help them with adjustments for better long run speed. His teammate Buescher also did a long run, so the organization should have some good data to get better.
- Stenhouse had a good 10-lap average time in practice and has three consecutive Top 20 finishes at Darlington. He's coming off a good run at Dover and is down under $7k from a relatively safe 26th starting spot.
- Custer has finished 11th and 12th in two of the last three Darlington races. He didn't put up great times in practice, but is cheap and can't really go backwards from this 28th starting spot unless something goes really wrong.
Punt plays--
- Corey LaJoie - Just too cheap for a guy with 15th and 22nd place finishes at Darlington last year. There's not much upside here, but he also doesn't need to do much at all to pay off the sub-$5k salary.
- Justin Haley - He's finished 17th or better in seven of the last nine races overall this year. He didn't put up real good speed or do a long run in practice, so that is of some concern.

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darlington xfinity

5/6/2022

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Qualifying got rained out halfway through, so we've got a bit of a wacky qualifying order. There are a number of really good position difference plays starting in the back that will lead to a lot of chalky lineups in cash games. Let's talk through some of the options--

Tyler Reddick - He's in the #48 car and was really fast on Friday before the rain hit. He should be a Top 10 car and has Top 5 upside at a track that suits him perfectly.
Ryan Truex - He has a Top 3 long run car in practice, but had some kind of mechanical issue on his qualifying run before the rain hit. The issue gives me some hesitation, but it's likely a big team like JGR can diagnose and fix the issue before the race. He'll probably start from the rear, but that's fine with his 28th official starting spot.
John Hunter Nemechek - He had the best 5-lap and 10-lap times in practice on Friday and won the Truck Series race Friday night. Like Reddick, this should be a Top 10 car with Top 5 potential.
Stephan Parsons, Josh Bilicki and Tommy Joe Martins - The best of the punt options since they start really far back and all have some experience here. If salary is no issue, that's the order I'd use them in. I am worried about TJM because his speed was way off in practice and his pre-rain qualifying run was not very good at all.
- I could also see using Timmy Hill as a punt, but be cautious and realistic. It's not going to be a very reliable or fast car. But he is a better driver then half the field.
- I'm also adding Bayley Currey here because he's so darn cheap. He shouldn't go backwards unless the car breaks. And he's typically been finishing in the low- to mid-20s in incident free races. (They're Xfinity punts, so it's hard to feel real good about any of these.)
Noah Gragson - He's usually awesome at the worn out tracks that run fast right along the wall. I think he wins this race and leads a good chunk of laps.
Josh Berry - Also excels at worn out race tracks and is coming off a great win at Dover last week. Probably not a cash game play, but like him a lot as a possibly lower owned dominator in tournaments.

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darlington

5/5/2022

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I won't have anything for Trucks on Friday. But I'll post notes for Xfinity late Friday night and Cup late Saturday night. Good luck this weekend!

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