This is an interesting slate with a number of different ways to go. In the end, I think we've got some great plays in the $9-10k range, so I'm looking to load up on three of those guys and take my chances fading the most expensive drivers. The biggest risk with that approach is that one of the Kyles (Larson or Busch) dominates the race. On balance, I think the value in the $9-10k range is just too good to pass up.

• I like the over $10k drivers. I really do. Larson has been a beast and I can see him dominating just like he did at Nashville in this same package. Kyle Busch has been really strong lately and could dominate from the pole. Even William Byron is a strong play. I wouldn't fault anyone who choses to pay up for those guys.
• Denny Hamlin - He dominated the two races this year that I find most comparable at Martinsville and Richmond. He led 276 laps and scored 145 DK points at Martinsville and he lead 207 laps and scored 134 DK points at Richmond. He's finished 2nd in the last two races at New Hampshire and scored 90 and 118 DK points in those races.
• Martin Truex - I just don't get pricing Truex down to almost $9k. Short, flat tracks are his strongest track type. He has two wins already this season at these tracks (Martinsville and Phoenix) to go along with a Top 5 at Richmond. He's finished in the Top 6 in the last five New Hampshire races. Just too cheap for a guy who should finish in the Top 5 and can certainly dominate this race.
• Joey Logano - Another guy with a superb record with this 750 HP package. Four straight Top 10 finishes at New Hampshire. He starts 15th and had Top 5 upside. Things would have to really go sideways for him to not hit 5x the $9,500 price tag. (Basically William Byron, but for $1,100 less.)

The other tier I'm really focused on is the $7-8k range.

• Christopher Bell - Killed the field in the Xfinity race Saturday and the Cup 750 HP cars race much closer to the Xfinity package than the Cup 550 HP cars do. So that win means something and what Bell learned can certainly help in the Cup race. Bell has won the last three Xfinity races here. At the short, flat tracks this year he's finished 9th, 7th, 4th and 9th.
• Ricky Stenhouse - Out of the blue he's been really good at the short, flat tracks this season with 12th, 15th, 17th and 6th place finishes. He was 14th last year here at New Hampshire. 
• Ryan Newman - Usually very good at New Hampshire with two Top 8 finishes in the last three races here. He starts 28th and is pretty reasonably priced at $7,200. 
• Ross Chastain - 19th, 17th, 15th and 2nd at the short, flat tracks this season. His work helping his teammate Kurt Busch last week showed that he's starting to get it. He really needs a strong finish to help his shot at getting a decent ride for next season.

​

• Guys like Suarez and Almirola are also in play, but they're more expensive and I'm not entirely confident they can hit value at those salaries.
• If you need to save more, I'd look at Eric Jones, Bubba Wallace and Anthony Alfredo as a last resort. ​Adding Corey LaJoie to the salary saver options.

All in on C. Bell for the Xfinity race on Saturday. Joe Gibbs cars have won the last five New Hampshire Xfinity races and Bell has won the last two. He starts 14th, so offers position difference upside too even if he doesn't dominate the whole race. It helps Bell that there is a competition caution on Lap 20. He should be well inside the Top 10 for that restart.

• I like two other Gibbs cars as well. Brandon Jones starts 23rd, so offers +15 position difference upside and a reasonably safe floor. Daniel Hemric starts 13th, so has a little less position difference upside, but more chance to lead laps. They're about equal plays for cash games in my book.

Outside of the Gibbs cars, Josh Berry is my other favorite. He won the Martinsville race this year, which is another similar short, flat track -- albeit with much tighter corners. Josh is in the #1 Jr Motorsports car this weekend in place of the injured Michael Annett. He starts 21st and has +15 position difference upside with an outside chance to lead laps.

In the middle tier, there are some decent plays that could work, but I can't confidently say any of them will hit 5x value:

• J.J. Yeley - Really good driver, but somewhat questionable car. He starts 36th and could make it into the Top 20 if all goes well. But he's very expensive and really needs to hit a ceiling performance to hit value.
• Jordan Anderson - Don't fully trust the car or driver - especially without practice.
• Brandon Brown - Starts 22nd, so has +10 position difference upside. It does not come without risk, though, because he's aggressive and they sometimes resort to goofy pit strategies to try to steal a win or track position.
• Brandon Gdovic - Starts 32nd and could get you +10 position difference on his best day. Not a very experienced driver or team though and I'm concerned with no practice.
• Landon Cassill - Starts 31st with about the same upside as Gdovic but a safer profile since he's a veteran driver with an established team.

Punts are ugly:

• ​David Star - Not cheap. Starts 38th so can only really go up. Finished 28th and 22nd at the two short, flat tracks this season.
• C.J. McLaughlin - Very similar to Starr.
• Spencer Boyd - Starts dead last so literally can't go backwards. Will be slow. We just want him to finish and beat the 8-10 cars that drop/wreck out.
• Kyle Weatherman - Pretty decent driver, not so decent car.

Bets

• Brandon Jones +2500 to win. Too high for a Gibbs car when this company has won the last five races here. 
• Hemric +140 Allgaier. I think Allgaier will be fine. Just think the +140 is too good to pass up for cars that should be pretty equal (if not slightly better for Hemric).

​

We've got 400 miles of Cup Series racing Sunday from Atlanta. All recent races here have been 500 miles, so this is a little shorter. But I don't think that will have a ton of impact on our analysis. Here are my main targets heading into Sunday:

• Kyle Larson - Duh. He's been incredible at the 1.5 mile tracks this season. In the earlier Atlanta race, he led 269 laps, ran 104 fastest laps and scored 160 DK points. In the two 1.5 mile track races since then, he's led 132 and 327 laps and scored 100 and 157 DK points. I just don't see how you can fade him in cash games. But I would be open to it in tournaments given the price tag and other options.
• William Byron - Byron has a win at Miami and finished 9th or better at all five 1.5 mile track races this season. If it weren't for Larson, I think we'd be talking a lot about Byron's performance overall and at the 1.5 mile tracks in particular. Starting 19th, he offers 10+ position difference upside with the potential to lead laps, run fastest laps and finish in the Top 5. Huge ceiling here and it would be a shocker to not see him crush 5x his salary.
• Alex Bowman - Very similar story to Byron, just a bit less consistent performance at the 1.5 mile tracks this season. He ran 3rd at Atlanta earlier this year and has had success throughout his career at worn out tracks with high tire wear -- including wins at Auto Club and Chicago. A similar huge ceiling to Byron, although I think it's a bit less likely he gets there.
  • Quick comment on Kevin Harvick and Ryan Blaney. I like them both and either or both could have a really good day with position difference upside. But I just don't see why they're more expensive than Byron and Bowman. For cash games or single entry tournaments, I just can't recommend them over the Hendrick drivers. They could be good contrarian plays if you want to go that way. But, even then, I probably prefer someone like Kyle Busch or Martin Truex who could be a surprise dominator.
• Ryan Newman - Starts 29th and offers +10 position difference upside for a good salary. Started 28th and finished 13th earlier this year at Atlanta. In ten combined starts at the 1.5 mile tracks this year, the Rousch drivers (Newman and Buescher) have nine Top 20 finishes.
• Anthony Alfredo - If we want the Hendrick studs, we need some salary savers too. Alfredo should work alright starting 32nd for only $5,500. To be clear, I don't like this or think he'll do any better than a 25th-28th place finish. It's a mean to the end -- which is getting the Hendrick guys who could blow the roof of the slate. Alfredo has finished all five races at the 1.5 mile tracks in the 23rd-27th range.
• Bubba Wallace - Another potential salary saver. He was 16th here earlier this year and turned in a 14th place finish at the last 1.5 mile track race in Charlotte. We've been starting to see some improved performance from this team -- including three Top 15 finishes at the last four non-road course races. A Top 20 is certainly a reasonable expectation.
• Michael McDowell - Last salary saver option. Five for five Top 20 finishes at the 1.5 mile tracks this season. He was 19th earlier this year at Atlanta.
• Ryan Preece - High floor starting 34th. He's not cheap though. So he probably needs to come through with a Top 20 run to make this work. He can do that, but I'm not overly confident he will. 
• Daniel Suarez - Suarez was 17th here earlier this year and has finished in the Top 18 in four of the five 1.5 mile track races this year. Again, though, not cheap. It can work, but it has to be a perfect run for him to make it work.

Saturday brings us 250 miles of Xfinity Series racing at Atlanta. Here are my top targets:

• Kyle Busch - Starts from the pole and should dominate this race. It could be his last Xfinity Series race and you know he wants to go out with a dominating win. Martin Truex was in this #54 car in the Spring race at Atlanta and absolutely crushed the field until a pit road speeding penalty later in the race. That's about the only thing that could possibly keep Kyle from crushing it here again.
• Justin Allgaier - He ultimately won the Atlanta Spring race and was the only other car that stood out as capable of possibly challenging Truex. Allgaier and his crew chief seem to really improve with practice and in later stages of the race. The fact that we already had a race here a few months ago is a big advantage for them. Allgaier is also one of the better Xfinity drivers on hot, slick tracks which we'll probably have on Saturday. He's finished 6th or better in the last four Atlanta races.
• Jeb Burton - This is a pricing play because he's too cheap. The Kaulig cars were very strong here in the Spring race. Jeb was running in the Top 5 but got caught up in a wreck during a late race restart. The 51 of Jeremy Clements restarted on the outside of the front row, spun his tires and stacked everyone up. Jeb was behind the 51 and tried to get around him and they just got together taking Jeb out of the race. He should be a Top 10 car and move up a couple of spots.
• Ty Dillon - Ty is in the #23 Our Motorsports car this weekend. This car has finished well at the 1.5 mile tracks when there is an experienced driver. Tyler Reddick ran at Miami and Las Vegas and finished 2nd and 12th, respectively. Ty ran at Charlotte and finished 7th. I think Ty can reasonably finish around 10th-12th and that he's a bit safer than Sam Mayer and Josh Berry.
  • Mayer is in the #8, which is a better car, but he still lacks experience at these faster, longer tracks.
  • Berry is in the #31 for Jordan Anderson which is generally old RCR equipment. He's done five races a 1.5 mile tracks in the #8 car (better equipment) and has only one Top 10 finish. 
• Noah Gragson - Noah got some damage early in the Spring Atlanta race and was never really at full speed. Based on what we saw in the Spring, this is most likely to be a Kyle Busch show with Justin Allgaier hanging around. If someone else is going to challenge for the lead, I think it would be Gragson. He seems to like these tracks that grind away the tires and have a higher groove. In his three Atlanta races he's finished 9th, 2nd and 4th.
• Jeremy Clements and Ryan Sieg - Both of these guys should be able to gain a few spots and are pretty cheap. They do carry some risk though because Sieg in particular likes to take strategy gambles and pit (or not) at odd times. Atlanta is a tough place to do that, but it wouldn't shock me for Sieg to do something crazy because he very likely needs a race win to make the playoffs. (For example, he could stay out at some point to save a set of tires hoping for a late race restart where no one else would have fresh tires.) Clements is currently the last driver in the playoffs on points, so he's likely to play it a bit more traditional and conservative -- which we'd prefer in cash games.
• Jeffrey Earnhardt and Colby Howard - JD Motorsports teammates in what should be Top 25 cars. If they can do that, they'll get you 10+ position difference and do very well for their lower salaries. In his three Atlanta races, Earnhardt finished 6th (with Joe Gibbs Racing) and 21st and 19th (with JDM). In his two Atlanta races, Howard finished 15th and 21st. We'll take any one of those on Saturday.
• Bayley Currey and Kyle Weatherman - I really try to avoid the Mike Harmon cars in cash games, but they might be too good to pass up here. Really cheap, can't go backwards and +15 position difference upside. These guys ran 24th and 28th in the Spring Atlanta race. It's just so hard to tell if these cars will be able to finish the race mechanically. 
• David Starr - Another sketchy punt option. Starr is in the #61 this weekend, which has been fairly reliable this season. Generally speaking, I'd prefer a Carl Long car over a Mike Harmon car, but the gap isn't too big. David starts 35th and should be able to move into the 20s as long as he doesn't have issues.

Bets

• Jeb Burton -115 Josh Berry
• Noah Gragson +115 Daniel Hemric

No trucks stuff from me today. Xfinity will be up late, late, late tonight.

I will try to post a quick update after qualifying.

​Only 62 laps for the Cup race on Sunday, so not a whole lot out there for laps led or fastest laps. In addition, there are multiple pit stop strategies that could come into play so we're very unlikely to see anyone dominate and lead a bulk of the laps. Larson essentially did that at Sonoma, but that one had 90 laps so offered a good deal more points for laps led and fastest laps. So, the focus is more on finishing position and position difference points.

Obviously, a lot depends on qualifying spots. Here is my main target list heading into qualifying. But anyone driving for a good team can come into play if they qualify way worse then expected.

• Kyle Busch - Won Saturday's Xfinity race and is generally good on road courses. Will have to start from the rear after wrecking in practice, so watch his official starting spot. He may take it easy in qualifying and have an official starting spot well back in the field.
• Ryan Preece - Same as Busch. But also concerned he didn't get any practice time. Busch and Haley both ran the entire Xfinity race, so not worried about them.
• Justin Haley - Same as Busch and Preece. Haley is a good road course guy. The main question here is car reliability.
• Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott - The best two road course guys in the Cup Series.
• A.J. Allmendinger - Arguably the best road course racer in the field. 7th at Daytona and 5th at COTA this year. Ton of Road America experience. His pit crew has been really, really bad in the Cup races.
• Christopher Bell - Won at Road America in the Xfinity Series in 2019. Also won earlier this year in the Cup Series at the Daytona Road Course. 
• Chase Briscoe - A lot of experience at Road America from the Xfinity Series and a good road course driver. 
• Tyler Reddick - Like Bell and Briscoe, he has some Xfinity experience here. Not known as a road course guy, but he threw down a great lap in practice. 
• Joey Logano - Top 5 finish in the last four road course races. The negative is he lacks Road America experience.
• Martin Truex - I do not expect him to challenge for the race win. But he should be Top 10.
• Austin Cindric - A lot of Road America experience from Xfinity and a top road course guy.
• Eric Jones - 14th, 16th, 11th at the three road course races this year.
• Kurt Busch - Struggled in the COTA rain race, but two 4th place finishes and a 6th place finish in the other three most recent road course races.
• Ross Chastain - Not really known as a road course guy, but a ton of speed at the road courses this year. Lots of Xfinity experience at Road America.
• Chris Buescher - 13 consecutive Top 20 finishes at road course races -- including 11th, 13th and 16th this year.
• Michael McDowell - 8th, 7th and running in the Top 10 before getting spun in the last corner at Sonoma in the three road courses this year.

Bets

• Kyle Busch +100 Truex
• Kyle Busch +155 Chase Elliott
• McDowell +125 Reddick
• Cindric +4000 to win

Saturday Update -- For cash games, probably just using guys starting 20th on back. I think the studs up front will battle and split up the few laps led and fastest laps points that are available. And Xfinity road races tend to have chaos. Focusing almost exclusively on position difference and guys who can finish Top 15ish. Don't be afraid to leave salary on the table like a super speedway race.

Add Harvick to the list starting 20th. He finished 4th at COTA with the same team. Rodney Childers is working with the crew.

Added some post-practice notes in bold.

Back to the road courses where I've had a lot of success this year. It started with the $20K GPP win in the Trucks Series race at the Daytona road course and continued with the $1,500 GPP win in the Cup Series race at Sonoma.

It's tough on these weeks with same day qualifying. For now, I'm going to list my expected driver pool and I'll add some notes after Friday's practice. For those newer to the site, I generally focus on a cash game, double up or 50/50 approach. But I'll generally include a few riskier plays that have tournament winning upside.

So here's the list in a rough order of my ranking before practice and qualifying taking into account their salary and scoring potential--

• A.J. Allmendinger -- Still my top guy. Cindric was faster in practice, but I think AJ is better at managing the race. Should be a good battle up front. 
• Austin Cindric -- Rocket ship in the few practice laps they got it.
• Kyle Busch
• Ty Gibbs
• Andy Lally -- Said he had a power steering issue in practice. Thinks all will be fine and they have Top 15 speed.
• Kaz Grala -- Really like his chances. 11th, 5th and 4th at last three Road America races.
• Josh Bilicki -- Brake issue in practice so only ran one lap. It was pretty fast. 
• Brett Moffitt
• Myatt Snider
• Alex Labbe
• Kris Wright
• Jade Buford
• Preston Pardus
• Jeremy Clements
• Tommy Joe Martins
• Riley Herbst -- He's going to a back up car and will start from the rear after wrecking in practice. He may take it easy in qualifying and have an official starting spot deeper in the field, so might become a viable option. Would have to start pretty far back though and depends on other plays that might be available. 
• Noah Gragson -- Like Herbst, Noah will start from the rear due to an engine change. Check his official starting spot to see if he is an option. Has 4th and 6th place finishes here. 

Obviously, if a top tier team/driver qualifies poorly they come into play even if not on the main target list.

Bets

• Allmendinger +130 Busch
• Snider -115 Clements
• Bilicki +25000 to win -- Throw away money obviously, but this is by far the best car Bilicki will have driven here. He's a local Wisconsin guy who came up as a road course racer. He is a road course racing instructor and teaches at Road America. Has raced here a ton. Way crazier things have happened.