Here are my notes heading into practice on Friday. I'll update as needed late Friday after practice.  See Friday night updates in bold.  Of note from practice, Denny Hamlin went to a back up car.  He will officially have whatever starting position he qualifies with tomorrow morning but will have to drop to the rear before the race begins.

• What to do with the Cup drivers:
  • Denny Hamlin is a virtual lock for me.  He's done this Xfinity race here every year lately and done very well.  In the last four years, his worse finish is 4th with 45 DK points.  He's won two of the last four races, finished second in another and scored at least 68 DK points in three of the last four races.  He'll be in the #18 JGR car which is one of the best in the garage.  No longer a lock since he will start from the rear.  If he qualifies well, he's probably off the board for cash games.  If he goes conservative in qualifying and doesn't get a single digit qualifying start, he's still under consideration.  Would absolutely keep him in the driver pool for tournaments as his ownership will be lower then expected coming into the weekend.
  • I'm not nearly as high on Ryan Blaney.  The #12 team simply hasn't performed the way it should despite having Blaney, Keselowski and Logano in the car for a number of races.  I'd rather go up to Hamlin or down to Bell and Custer.  Had Top 5 or so speed in practice, but it's hard to see this car leading a bunch of laps or getting many fastest laps.  OK if position difference potential is there.
  • I'm pretty much out on Dale Jr as well.  Having not been in a race setting since Richmond last year, I really can't imagine him leading many laps or running many fastest laps at a difficult track like Darlington.  I've also got to think the events of the last few weeks have taken some of his attention away from race preparation and simulator time -- although, if you believe in a dramatic narrative, him winning here would certainly be that.  I do expect a Top 10 run and a strong finish, but I don't see him justifying that salary unless, of course, he starts way back.  Again, I'd rather go down to Bell and Custer.  Still feel this way on Dale Jr.  I wouldn't be surprised by a Top 10 or even flirting with the Top 5, but I don't see laps led or fastest laps.
• What about the top Xfinity rides:
  • I don't understand why Cole Custer is down to $9,400.  He's a great option at that price and I like him far better then Cindric and Allgaier (and even Dale Jr and Ryan Blaney) who are priced right above him.  Custer finished 2nd here last year -- ahead of Hamlin, Reddick, Bell and Chase Elliott.  Looking like a solid play.  Good speed in practice and was the only guy to do a 30-lap run in final practice.
  • I want to see where guys are running in practice, but this track often fits the guys running right up against the wall -- which is a Tyler Reddick specialty.  That's why he's more expensive then even Denny Hamlin this week.  In two races here, he's finished 16th and 3rd with no laps led and 16 fastest laps total.  He may end up too pricey for me unless I'm convinced he can run up front for a big chunk of the race.  Really like how Reddick looks.  Not great speed in practice but he was running the lower lane which is where cars need to go to pass during the race.  Was probably giving up some raw speed in practice to work on getting the car better for what he'll have to do in the race.
  • I like Bell at $10,200 -- which is $1,100 under Hamlin and $1,500 under Reddick.  He finished 2nd in Stage 1 here last year and was every bit as good as Ross Chastain who led the entire first stage.  Early in Stage 2, Bell got loose, made contact with another car and cut a tire.  Shortly after pitting, the tire went down again and he went hard into the wall ending his race.  He finished 34th in deep negative point territory.  I still like the discount down to him and think he has about as good a chance as Reddick to hit a bunch of laps led and fastest laps for $1,500 less salary.  Like Bell's chance to lead a bunch tomorrow.  Was top in 5-lap average and second in 10 lap and 15 lap average in final practice.
• I think we can afford as many as four of the top/expensive drivers because there are some very good options on the salary saver side:
  • Camden Murphy -- He'll be in the #93 car and appears to have sponsorship and the opportunity to run the full race.  If we think he is slated to run the full race, he's a must have at a near minimum price unless he qualifies really, really well.  (This is the same car/team that Josh Bilicki has had some success with when sponsored.)  Good signals on trying to run the full race here.  He ran 27 laps total in practice and the roster shows a full pit crew.
  • Vinnie Miller -- This guy is just an ideal punt play for me.  His salary is way down at $5,100, yet he produces each and every week.  The formula is real simple -- it's a slow car so he qualifies poorly but, unlike many of the cars back there, this team runs the full race week after week.  They don't even push it or try to pass people.  They simply log the laps and pass cars as they drop out of the race.  He usually ends up with a finish in the upper 20s and almost +10 position difference some weeks.  Throw out Watkins Glen where he wrecked in qualifying and didn't have a back up car.  Without that, he's at 25+ DK points in the last four races.  If he qualifies from 30th on back, he's a very strong punt play as you're virtually locking in a 5X return at his salary.  Speed was way off the pace in practice, so should qualify near last.  Like Mills better overall but will depend on where they both qualify.
  • Matt Mills -- Very similar profile to Vinnie Miller with possibly a bit more speed.
  • Ray Black Jr -- Not a punt play, but he's too cheap down at $6400.  He's scored 23+ DK points in six consecutive races and has 32+ DK points in five out of those six races.  This is the best car down in this salary range considering the combination of speed and reliability.  I also like that Black has 2 races worth of experience at Darlington.  In 2016, he finished 21st for 27 DK points and, in 2017, he finished 25th for 23 DK points.
  • BJ McLeod -- He's another reliable 20+ DK points week in and week out.  We know the JD Motorsports cars always work hard to finish the race.  BJ also has a lot of Darlington race experience and scored 23 and 27 DK points in the last two races there.  Good to go pending qualifying spot.
  • Landon Cassill -- He's another JD Motorsports driver.  He tends to qualify too well to be considered for cash games, but I'd have him in my driver pool for tournaments and can use in cash if he slips up in qualifying.  Last year, in a JD Motorsports car, he started 21st and finished 14th for 37 DK points.  He didn't do the Xfin race here in 2016 or 2017 but, before that, again for JD Motorsports, he started 19th and finished 5th for 53 DK points in 2015.  Again, I'm more conservative and wouldn't use him in a cash game if he qualifies in the Top 20, but absolutely go with it in tournaments.  Showed Top 15-20 speed in both practice sessions. 
  • I'll follow them, but I'm still mostly out on the MBM cars -- Finchum, Hill, Martins and Gase.  These cars just don't show the reliability of the JD Motorsports group and they sometimes park for no apparent reason. Too risky for my taste in cash games when there are comparable (if not better) options in the same price range.  Martins in the 13 looks likes a start & park.  Others may try to run, but can't be sure.
  • Looking like 4-5 start & parks -- 13, 17, 38, 74(?) and 89

The Trucks series has its one and only road course race on Sunday.  Here's a few notes to help you with lineup builds -- primarily for cash games.

• Only 65 laps and two stage break cautions already built in, so we're not going to have a lot of laps led or fastest lap points.  Also it's difficult to pass so we won't see big position difference swings unless a guy has an issue in qualifying that causes a starting spot that doesn't match the truck's speed.  So, the primary focus is on raw finishing position and trying to avoid any negative position difference.
• A few things are not what they might seem at first glance.
  • Ray Ciccarelli -- Don't even consider using him.  He is not in his regular #49 truck for his self-owned team. He is driving the #0 truck which is a second truck for Jennifer Jo Cobb's team. This is almost always a start and park truck. Ray only did two laps in practice that were 20 seconds off the pace, further supporting the thought he'll be parking early.
  • Josh Reaume -- Same situation here.  He is not driving one of his own trucks.  This is the #8 Joe Nemechek truck which is also a start and park unless Joe or his son are in the truck.  Don't use him.
  • Alex Tagliani -- Unlike his prior races here, he's in the #51 Kyle Busch truck this week. He's got the best crew chief in the garage and top notch equipment.  "Tag" has raced here several times in the Truck Series -- finishing 10th just last year.  He's always been with a mid-level team and never in top level equipment like he has this week.  A Top 5 finish is very realistic.  He is expensive though, so he's not a must use guy by any means.
• Other top end targets:
  • Austin Hill -- Maybe not top end, but his salary is $7,400.  I don't know why.  He ran in the Top 10 here last year in lesser equipment.  This is a pricing error and you should take advantage of it.
  • Brett Moffitt -- Looks poised to contend for the win again.  He finished 3rd here last year.  Had the best single lap time in final practice.  Expensive, so not a must use.
  • Johnny Sauter -- He can be crazy, but the facts don't lie.  He's finished 6th or 7th in each of the last four races here.  $9,300 is a very fair price to get him at.
    
  • The other KBM trucks with Todd Gilliland and Harrison Burton are too cheap as well.  They were 1 - 2 in first practice and Gilliland was 5th in final practice.  
    
• Mid to low end targets
  
  • I've got no problem with Jason White at $4,700.  This is a Josh Reaume truck and these guys do the same thing every race -- go slow but run the whole race.  White is very familiar with this track because he runs it every year in the Canadian Pinty series.  He ran here last year for Reaume and finished 23rd after starting 27th.
    
  • Dylan Lupton and Raphael Lessard are too cheap.  Lupton will be in the #20 which is usually the Spencer Boyd truck.  It's a solid team that will give a full race effort.  He had the truck in 7th for single lap time in final practice.  Lessard is in the #54 DGR truck that usually has Natalie Decker behind the wheel.  He's done four truck races this year and done a respectable job in all of them.  Given their salaries, I like both of these guys as long as they don't qualify too well.

Will have write ups for both the Xfinity race on Saturday and the Trucks race on Sunday. I love the Road America track but, in all honesty, stock cars look very out of place there. Weather looks good in the mid-70s and mostly sunny. I had some thoughts heading into practice Friday and most of them were solidified and confirmed by what went down at practice. Here's where I'm at heading into qualifying and the race on Saturday:

• I'm pretty concerned that DK pricing is too soft this week. I fear were going to have a lot of similar lineups in cash games that could lead to huge ties and split payouts. At the very least, the margin between winning and losing will be very slim and more prone to good or bad luck for one guy in your lineup. Unless something in qualifying shakes things up, I'm probably playing a lighter load on Saturday.
• Only 45 laps with two cautions at the stage breaks built in. So there are very few extra points out there for fastest laps and laps led. There are also limited on track passing opportunities, so difficult to score many positive position difference points unless the car really botches qualifying and has significantly more speed then the other cars starting around it.  The most emphasis is on finishing position and avoiding any negative position difference. 
• With that background, here's the general approach I suspect most people will take:
  • First, I think most will take (1) Austin Cindric because he won the first two road course races this year and looked fast again in practice Friday and (2) AJ Allmendinger because he's the most notable road course guy and was also pretty fast in practice.
  • Second, I think most people will grab Matt DiBenedetto because he's way too cheap, is in a great car and everyone knows the name from his recent Cup Series success.  He's also a strong road course guy and has very good results at those tracks with under funded teams in the Cup Series.
  • Third, we've got a handful of good options at the lower end of the salary range to make the upper end salaries work.  I think people will gravitate to 2-3 cheap plays.
• I want to dig in on a few of the guys I expect to be heavily owned:
  • Cindric -- Obviously won the first two road course races this season and he's always done very well at the road courses.  He looked fine in practice Friday and got through them incident free.  Was 3rd quickest in first practice and 7th quickest in final practice.
  • Allmendinger --  He said this car was the best he's had this year at a road course, so that's a very good sign for him.  I think he's the best road course racer in the field, so if his car is close, his skill may take him the rest of the way.  In final practice he was 3rd in single lap time and 1st in 5-lap average.  Tire fall off is actually huge at Road America and I think AJ is in the best position to manage the tires and maintain speed throughout a run.  The only bit of concern here is that he had some issue in the right front just as final practice was ending.  Chances are they get it fixed and are fine for the race on Saturday, but it's obviously not ideal to have a problem just as practice is ending since there's no opportunity to see if you got it fixed correctly for the race.
  • DiBenedetto -- He's in the #18 Joe Gibbs car this weekend.  It's obviously top notch equipment and Matt has shown a lot of success on road courses even in secondary equipment.  In the two Cup road course races this year, Matt's finished 4th and 6th.  Last year in the #32 car -- which is severely underfunded -- Matt finished in the Top 18 (13th and 17th) in two of the three Cup series road course races.  So he obviously has road course skills and will be in a top notch ride for the first time.  He's way too cheap at $8,400.  In final practice he was 2nd in single lap time and 2nd in 5-lap average.
  • I've got to say that Christopher Bell in the 20 looked great on Friday.  He had the fastest speed in both practices.  Reddick said the 20 just drove off away from him in first practice.  And in the second practice, Bell came out on track slightly ahead of Cindric and he drove away from Cindric as well.  Bell finished 3rd and 2nd in the prior road course races this season so he's certainly a strong contender for the win on Saturday.
  • Also have to at least mention Custer.  He hasn't led laps or gotten many fastest laps, but he's finished in the Top 8 at the last seven road course races.  He's certainly in play at a sub-$10k salary.
    
• On the salary saver side, here are the cheap options at $5,500 and below that I expect people to gravitate towards:
  • Ryan Ellis -- He will be in the #78 BJ McLeod car which always attempts to run the full race.  Ellis ran this race last year in the #78 and started 28th and finished 17th.  An 18th-20th place finish is a reasonable expectation again.  And this car tends to race better then it qualifies which is just what we want.  He did not run in first practice but was 16th in second practice.
  • Tommy Joe Martins -- He's in the #66 MBM car that looks to be sponsored this week.  He ran 18th at Mid Ohio and was running about 20th at The Glen before a mechanical issue knocked him out and down to the 28th finishing position.  It looks like this team will try to run a full race but, as we say almost weekly with the MBM group, a mechanical failure is about a 50/50 proposition.  And these cars sometimes do show some speed and qualify too well to justify the risk in cash games.  He was 20th in first practice and 18th in final practice.  He posted on Twitter Friday night that they made an adjustment he really liked between first and second practice Friday and that he thinks the team has a "very real shot" at a Top 10 finish.
  • Dexter Bean -- In the #90 DGM car.  He ran this car at Road America two years ago in 2017 when he started 35th and finished 26th.  He's not had a lot of success and has very limited Xfinity experience so I wouldn't project anything more then a 28th-30th place finish.  But it's a decent team that we know will try to run the full race.  So if he qualifies in the back, you don't need much for the $4,700 price tag.  I was worried to see him off track twice in first practice, but it was all in run off areas so no damage to the car.  He was 24th in first practice and 26th in final practice which seems like a reasonable vicinity for him to finish the race on Saturday.     
  • Vinnie Miller -- He won't have good speed, but he's going to turn laps and finish the race.  He actually didn't finish at The Glen, but that's because he crashed in qualifying and they didn't have a backup.  He did turn laps at Mid Ohio and finished 25th -- up from the 35th starting spot for 29 DK points.   I would use 28th-30th as a baseline for most likely finishing position.  I wrote most of this article Thursday and had Miller in it.  He was several seconds off the pace in final practice, so would only consider him if he started in the last 4-5 starting spots.
  • Ryan Vargas -- In the #4 car for JD Motorsports.  This was the Ross Chastain team and we know it tries to run the full race every week.  Vargas ran once earlier this year in the #15 JDM car and finished 17 at Iowa.  He has limited road course experience, but is an option at only $5,100 as long as he qualifies poorly.  Was also in my Thursday draft.  Was 7 seconds off the pace in 29th place in first practice, so same approach as Vinnie Miller.
  • Would not touch Pardus (one off with no experience), Karth (65+ year old Wisconsin local with no experience), Finchum (likely start and park) or Yeley (likely start and park) in cash games -- or any format at all.
  • Still on the cheaper side, I also like Josh Bilicki.  He's sponsored this week again and has been solid at the road courses this year.  He was well inside the Top 20 late at The Glen until he got collected in someone else's wreck and finished 26th.  He finished 17th at Mid Ohio.  He was 16th in first practice and 24th in final practice, so another finish just inside the Top 20 is certainly a reasonable projection.
• Finally a few notes from Friday's practices.  Final practice was pretty wild with numerous guys finding big trouble:
  • Not much to note in first practice.  The 9 (Gragson) and 90 (Bean) were both off track several times and struggled with car control.
  • Final practice was crazy with numerous problems:
    • 19 (Jones) -- Big crash with heavy damage.  Back up car starting at the rear of the field no matter where he officially qualifies.
    • 51 (Clements) -- Left rear truck arm mount broke.  This is an issue the team should be able to fix and be ready to race on Saturday, but keep an eye on it.
    • 86 (Brown) -- Big spin and loss of control into Canada Corner.  Limited car damage but Brown did not sound like a confident driver when interviewed.
    • 21 (Grala) -- Engine was missing or acting like the rev limiter was being incorrectly triggered.  Team seemed to be investigating a fuel pick up issue when practice ended.  Again, worrisome to have a major issue like this with no practice time to see if it got fixed properly.
    • 74 (Hammann) -- Not great car control and something fell apart and out of the car when he ran over the curbing on track.  Looked like a rear spring.  Obviously stuff like that shouldn't be falling out simply because he went over the curbing that everyone uses to help turn the car in the corners.
    • 10 (Allmendinger) -- Right front issue as noted above.  A cause for at least some concern.
    • 36 (Williams) -- Seemed to run out of gas late in practice. Commentators guessed they were testing the limits of their fuel mileage. 

Had a good night in the Truck race, so looking to go back to back on Friday night.  Here are a few notes to help guide the lineup choices:

• On the very top end, I'm certainly open to paying up for Kyle Busch.  When he's run this race, he's often led a ton of laps and run the most fastest laps.  If starting from the pole, it's hard to imagine him not leading for the entire opening stage.  This 18 car has been far better then the part time 12 car that Joey Logano will be driving.  I have almost no interest in the 12 at $13.5k.
• If we do take Busch, we're going to need some value drivers and I see a number of decent options depending on starting spot.  That, too, makes me more willing to spend up for KB.  Here's some of the value plays I'm most interested in:
  
  • Eric Jones is noteworthy because he was fastest in both practices on Thursday.  If we believe Kyle is going to dominate, it's hard to see Eric hitting value unless he starts further back in the field.  This team has been solid in the few races they've won, but I don't view this as a Top 5 or win contending team.  And I think if something did happen to Kyle, it's more likely to be Bell, Custer and/or Reddick leading laps -- not Jones. 
    
  • I like the Annett, Haley, Gragson, Briscoe and Burton block from $8,800 - $7,800.
    
    • Annett has run 7th and 8th in the last two races here with his current crew chief.
    • Haley ran 7th here in the Spring.
    • Gragson ran 9th here in the Spring.
    • Briscoe ran 4th here in the Spring and has five straight Top 7 finishes coming into this race.
    • Burton is in the #8 JR Motorsports car.  (Let me pause for a second to say how fortunate it is that Dale Jr. and his family were not seriously injured in the plane crash on Friday.  The sight of that flaming wreckage was awfully scary.)  This is a Top 10 car week in, week out regardless of driver.
  • ​Ryan Sieg could have value if he doesn't qualify too well.  He's run 15th, 11th and 12th in the last three Bristol races and his cars are generally faster this year.
  • Jeremy Clements is a real strong value at $6,500.  He's finished 13th in the last two Bristol races and has a generally strong history here.  He's also been throwing up Top 15 finishes consistently the last few months.
  • Brandon Brown, Gray Gaulding and Ray Black Jr. are all solid options around the same price if they don't qualify too well.  I'd rank them in that order.
  • This one is not for the feint at heart, but I think JJ Yeley is going to try to run the whole race.  The #93 car is sponsored and we've seen Josh Bilicki run this car for the full race when sponsored.  JJ ran 13 laps in first practice and 28 laps in final practice, which is also a good sign.  And the team roster shows a pit crew for this car.  (In contrast, for this same team, the #38 car is a start and park this week.  It shows no pit crew and ran only 5 laps in final practice.)  As a bonus, he probably won't qualify too well.
  • Another possible low end guy is Timmy Hill.  Many of the same reasons as Yeley.  There is sponsorship, he ran 44 laps in first practice and 20 laps in final practice, the team shows a pit crew for this week.  All that said, this is an MBM car and those cars have an alarmingly high number of mechanical failures.  I suspect Timmy will qualify too well to allow me to consider this car in cash games.
  • Other probable start and parks -- 13, 17, 35, 38, 89 -- I also have questions about the 74, 66 and 68.  I won't be using any of those in cash games.

Love the night Truck series races and Bristol should be interesting this week.  It's a popular/prestigious race, so we've got numerous additional entries this week and they end up creating a pretty sizable list of mid-priced and low-priced targets.  I'll focus there:

• At the very bottom, Timmy Hill and JJ Yeley could have solid value.  Hill is running for the part-time family owned team.  These guys have tried to run the whole race when they enter.  They've had several mechanical failures, but also finished as high as 11th at Kentucky.  Yeley is running the second Reaume truck this week.  We've noted these guys often -- the trucks won't be fast but they plan to finish every race.  Assuming these truck qualify poorly (25th or worse), they will hit solid value simply by finishing the race at their dirt cheap price.
• Great targets in the $6k-$7k range:
  • Gus Dean -- I really don't know why his salary was slashed from over $7k to under $6k.  This is a solid team, so he's good to go if he qualifies further back.
  • Dylan Lupton will be in the #15 DGR truck Thursday and he's got two Top 10 finishes in two races with that team this year.
  • Brennan Poole has Top 15 finishes in his last four races, including a high of 2nd at Charlotte.
  • Raphael Lessard is under $7k in a Kyle Busch Motorsports truck.  No legitimate driver should be under $7k in a KBM truck.
  • Parker Klingerman is right at $7k.  He's finished 8th and 4th in the last two Bristol races with this same team. 
• More great targets in the $7k-$8k range:
  • ​John Hunter Nemechek's pricing is particularly egregious at $7,700.  He has run the trucks at Bristol the last four years and finished 3rd, 8th, 3rd and 3rd.  Last year, he added  104 laps led and 43 fastest laps.  His ownership will be sky high in all formats.  Oftentimes this truck is a start and park, but not when John Hunter is in it.
  • Chandler Smith is right behind him.  Very talented drive in a KBM truck.  No very talented driver in a KBM truck should be sub-$8k.  He's scored 60+ DK points in his only two truck races this year.
  • Ryan Sieg will be in lead Reaume truck.  Always like the Reaume trucks and this is the best driver in the truck.
  • Austin Wayne Self is just real solid of late.  I tweeted about his speed last week and his season high 5th place finish at Michigan made it two Top 6 finishes in the last three races.  He finished 13th at Bristol last year.
  • Timothy Peters -- Not really targeting him, but won't rule him out if he starts way back.  This team has only run a race or two the last few years, but has managed some decent finishes with veteran drivers like Peters and Regan Smith.
  • Sam Mayer is a new name for most, but he's a solid, rising racer in a solid GMS truck.  In the ARCA series this year, he's got five Top 5 finishes in six races.  And in the K&N East Series this year, he has two wins and seven Top 5 finishes in eight races.  At the K&N Bristol race in the Spring, he started from pole, led all 150 laps and won the race over numerous Truck and Xfinity names, including Mason Diaz, Raphael Lessard, Riley Herbst and Natalie Decker.  This is his first Truck Series race, however, so that's where the added risk comes in.
• No one really sticks out in the top tier.  I really like Ross Chastain, but over $12k is tough to swallow.  Sauter has been excellent at Bristol, but he's had a really tough year.  It will all come down to practice speeds and qualifying position up top.

First and foremost, follow inspection issues on Sunday morning.  It's an impound weekend, so if a car fails inspection on Sunday, the qualifying time is disallowed and it gets an official starting spot in the rear.  Our last impound race was last week at Pocono where we saw nine cars fail inspection.  It turned every cash lineup upside down in the hours before the race.

If we have inspection failures Sunday, it will turn over lineups once again.  As it stands now, I really don't see a whole lot of good value plays.  Most cars seemed to qualify about where you would expect based on practice speeds, etc.  There are a few cars in the 14th-25th range that have +8 to +10 position difference upside.  But otherwise no one is sticking out as an obvious value play.  And I don't see a whole lot of upside out of any of the cheapest drivers starting from 26th on back.

With that background, let's get into some of the cars I'm focused on:

• The front runners are fairly obvious -- Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex.  Honestly, you can't go wrong with any of them.
  • Elliott won here last year, led 52 laps and scored 26 fastest laps.  He had a race high 74 DK points.  Other than a blown motor earlier this year at Sonoma, he's been strong at most of the road courses.  Pending inspection, he'll start from pole Sunday and is quite likely to lead the bulk of the laps in Stage One at a minimum.
  • Kyle has been the most consistent road course guy over the last five years.  In the last ten road course races, Kyle has nine Top 8 finishes.  His only bad finish was at the Roval last year when he was involved in the massive crash during the restart with 6 laps to go.  But he was running in the Top 5 at the time of that crash.  Kyle had the best 5-lap and 10-lap average in final practice.  He also had the best 5-lap average in first practice.  (Elliott was second in 5-lap average both practices.)
  • While Kyle has been consistently excellent for many years, Truex has been even better the last two seasons.  In the last five road course races, Truex has three wins and a second place finish.  He would have had a fourth win at the Roval last year if not for Jimmie Johnson making contact and spinning them both heading to the checkered flag.  Truex has finished 1st and 2nd in the last two Watkins Glen races.
• On the cheap end, only three guys interest me:
  • Matt DiBenedetto -- Will start 20th, so there's a bit of risk here as his score would go deeply negative if he has a problem.  But he ran 4th in his first road course effort with the #95 team earlier this year at Sonoma.  And he has finishes of 17th, 13th and 4th in three of the last four road course races.  He was 3rd in single lap time and 13th in 5-lap average in final practice.  In first practice he was 15th in single lap time and 11th in 5-lap average.  So it looks like he has decent long run speed and that he qualified 8-10 spots worse then his practice speeds suggest he can run.
  • Ryan Preece -- I'm only interested because he starts 29th so offers limited downside.  He didn't have great practice speed and he wasn't great in his only other Cup Series road course race earlier this year in Sonoma -- he started 20th and finished 29th.  Not a ringing endorsement to be sure.
  • David Ragan -- Honestly, I prefer Ragan over Preece and will gladly take the $500 savings to go with it.  Ragan has finished 22nd, 26th, 16th and 20th in the last four road course races.  He ran 28th in both practices and was right next to Preece on the speed chart both times.  Given the salary savings, lower starting position and more consistent road course performance history, Ragan seems like the better bet to me.
• The middle range is where we could see some big value open up in the inspection process.  For now, here are the mid-tier/mid-pack guys of most interest to me:
  • Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and Daniel Suarez all offer some decent position difference upside.
    • Logano in all honestly has struggled lately on the road courses.  A few years ago, he had a string of five straight Top 6 finishes on the road courses -- including a three year string of finishing 6th, 1st and 2nd at The Glen.  But in the last six road course races, he has only one Top 10 finish and has finished 24th and 37th at The Glen.  He was 12th in 5-lap average in final practice so he seems to have decent race speed.  But I'm not sure you can justify the $9,100 salary given his recent road course performance.
    • Blaney has finished 1st and 3rd in the last two road course races.  And he's been decent the last two years at The Glen with 8th and 12th place finishes.  He was 11th in single lap time and 9th in 5-lap average in final practice.  In first practice, he was 6th in single lap time and 5th in 5-lap average.  So he seems to have +8 to +10 position difference upside out of the 19th starting spot.
    • Suarez hasn't been particularly strong at the road courses with the exception of The Glen.  In his two Cup Series races here, he's finished 3rd and 4th.  He was 14th in single lap time and 5-lap average in final practice, so you'd think he has +5 position difference upside from the 18th starting spot.
  • Eric Jones carries a bit more risk starting 14th, but might have more upside compared to the Logano, Blaney and Suarez group.  The entire Joe Gibbs group was really fast in practice.  Jones himself was 11th in single lap time, 11th in 5-lap average and 8th in 10-lap average in final practice.  In his two Cup Series starts at The Glen, he finished 10th and 5th.  He finished 8th earlier this season at Sonoma.
  • The two other guys on the cheaper end of the middle tier that interest me most are Ryan Newman and Daniel Hemric.
    • Newman is Newman.  He'll be decent, will be a pain in the ass to pass and will probably finish in the Top 20.  In the last six road course races, he's never finished worse than 25th and he's gotten finishes as high as 11th and 7th in the two most recent road course races at The Roval and Sonoma earlier this year.
    • Hemric obviously isn't as established as Newman, but he ran really well at Sonoma earlier this year.  In that race he started 25th and finished 15th for 39 DK points.  In final practice, he was 16th in 5-lap average, so a similar finish isn't out of the question.    

82 laps from Watkins Glen on Saturday afternoon for the Xfinity Series.  Kyle Busch will be in the #18 car and I think the most likely scenario is that we see him start up front, lead most of the laps and finish up front.  I'm obviously not going out on a limb with that take, but let's make sure not to overthink this one.

Since Kyle should get most of the dominator points, we'll be looking to fill the rest of the lineup with guys we feel can get a great finishing position with a few positive position difference points and guys starting further back that we think can move up 8-10 spots or so.  Here is who I'm targeting heading into qualifying on Saturday morning:

• Kyle Busch -- He's a virtual lock for me.  Blaney and Allmendinger might keep it somewhat close but Kyle is easily the best driver and will be in the best equipment of those three.  He hasn't done many Xfinity Series road course races lately.  His last was Watkins Glen in 2017.  He started 2nd, won the race, led 43 laps, had 31 fastest laps and had a race high 74 DK points.  Expect something similar.  He was about half a second faster than anyone else per lap in both practices Friday.
• Other than Blaney and Allmendinger, high priced guys I feel most confident to finish in the Top 5-8 are Justin Allgaier and Cole Custer.
  • Allgaier has seven Top 8 finishes in the last ten road course races.  He's finished 7th, 4th and 3rd in the last three Watkins Glen races with +2, +3 and +7 position difference. 
  • Custer has five straight Top 8 finishes on road courses.  Last year at Watkins Glen, he started 12th and finished 6th for 44 DK points.  I am a bit worried that he has to go to a back up and will probably save the salary here to get stronger plays throughout the lineup to pair with Kyle Busch.
  • Best guess on the Top 5 is Busch, Allmendinger, Allgaier, Blaney and Custer.
  • I like Cindric in a way, but he's too inconsistent for cash games.  In five road course races, he's finished 16th, 13th, 2nd, 37th and 3rd.  All over the map.  I'm guessing with three Cup level guys in the race, he's going to push it too hard to keep up with them and make a mistake.  Only on board here if he starts farther back.
• In the next tier, I like Preece, Briscoe, Labbe and Chastain.
  • Preece has two recent road course races in the Xfinity Series and finished 4th both times.  Last year at the Charlotte Roval, he started 10th and finished 4th for 47 DK points.  In 2017 at The Glen, he started 8th and finished 4th for 48 DK points.  He's in the #8 JR Motorsports car which has been strong all year.  Preece has been in that ride three times this year and finished 4th, 8th and 7th.
  • Briscoe seems under priced at $8k.  He led 33 laps and won the last Xfinity Series road course race at the Roval last year.  However, he's never raced at the Glen in the Xfinity Series.  He showed Top 10 speed in practice on Friday.
  • Labbe is a very solid road course guy who did well at all four road course races last season.  He's probably priced up a bit too high though unless he starts really far back.  I'd project him for a 12th-18th place finish.
  • Chastain has finished in the Top 20 in the last seven road course races.   He's not going to win, lead laps or get fastest laps.  But he's one of the most reliable bets for a Top 20 finish outside the guys driving for the power teams.  He might also be priced a bit too high for a guy with a limited ceiling unless he starts really far back.
  • Note that Justin Haley, John Hunter Nemechek and Noah Gragson all ran well in the Truck Series road course race last year in Canada.  Haley won, Nemechek was 2nd, and Gragson won the first two stages and led a race high 35 laps.  None is a road course ringer by any stretch, but they should be able to hold their own and should be considered if they qualify outside the Top 12 or so.
• At the bottom, Tommy Joe Martins and Josh Bilicki are tempting.  I'd also be OK with Scott Heckert or David Starr.
  • For Martins, he's switched over to the MBM team, which I tend to avoid at all costs because they are not reliable.  But he is sponsored and they ran 23 laps in final practice -- which you wouldn't do if you were parking it halfway through the race.  Now this team is still highly susceptible to mechanical failure, but it looks like they'll at least go into the race trying to run the whole thing -- which could offer really good value at near minimum price.
  • Same thing for Bilicki.  The #93 team is usually a start and park, but they run select races full length when they have sponsorship.  He's got sponsors and they ran 20 laps between the two practice sessions which, again, would be more then a parker would do.
• A couple of situations to avoid:
  • I'm worried about Josh Williams.  He tweeted that they had a motor problem and his team did not have a backup.  They "found one" from someone else in the garage and "will be able to start" the race on Saturday.  I'm usually all aboard this ride, but not this week.
  • Also, two cars I think will be parking for sure during the race are the #13 (Finchum) and #38 (Yeley).  Neither has sponsorship or a full crew.