For Sunday's Truck Series race, I'm just going to throw up some quick rankings by salary tier. One thing to remember if looking at past stats is that this race was typically run at night in the past. This race will start Sunday just after 11 am local time.

Expensive

• Sheldon Creed - Best cash game play because he's starting 17th. Should gain 10-15 positions.
• Zane Smith - Consistently fast every single week and starts from the pole. The only question is whether the speed carries over to this first flat track race of the Trucks Series season.
• Brett Moffitt - If Smith doesn't dominate early, Moffitt probably will. Been really good here and at Martinsville (another flat track) in the past. For me, it's a coin flip between Smith and Moffitt.
• Christian Eckes - Back at a track he's done well at with the same crew chief. Starts 7th so offers a few + position difference points as well.

Mid-Tier

• Raphael Lessard - He's been running a little better lately and should push for a Top 10 finish.
• Grant Enfinger - Led 52 laps last year at Gateway. Offers position difference upside as well starting 11th.
• Sam Meyer - In the very strong #24 truck. Ran fine in this truck last week at Dover.
• Stewart Friesen - Was very good at Gateway and similar Martinsville last year. But this year has been a big struggle for them after switching manufacturers in the off-season.

Cheap

• Danny Bohn - Replacing Brennan Poole in the #30 truck. This is a pretty solid truck and Bohn has a lot of experience at flat tracks like this. Ran well at Martinsville in this truck last year. Only concern is no practice and no truck races so far this season.
• Tyler Hill - Solid option with +10 position difference expectation.
• Natalie Decker - She's in a Niece truck, which will be Top 20 equipment in what is a bit of a watered down field this week.
• Dawson Cram - Running decent lately and should be able to push for a Top 20 in a watered down field. Only question is how things stand with Cram and Long splitting.

I'm going to cover these two races together because the overall strategy is so similar. It's a plate track with pack racing so we're going to see a number of wrecks that eliminate about half the field by the end of the race. The goal here is to survive as much as possible and limit your downside by using cars starting in the back half of the field. Particularly in cash games, this is really the only strategy that makes any sense.

The specific profile we're looking for is cars starting from about 25th on back that are with bigger teams or are otherwise pretty reliable. Hopefully we can find a few drivers with good track records in these races as well. In the Xfinity Series, I might stretch up to about the 20th starting spot because the back end of the field tends to include some really inexperienced drivers and/or unreliable teams and equipment.

With that background, here's the guys I'm considering for Friday and Saturday night:

Xfinity Series (Friday)

• We're locking in A.J. Allmendinger. There is no reason whatsoever to fade him in cash games. This is a no brainer.
• The B.J. McLeod Motorsports cars tend to do pretty well at plate races because they just ride around together at the rear of the field and wait for other cars to wreck out. The only downside is the cars are not the most reliable, so we do have some mechanical failure risk here. They've got three cars starting from 29th on back -- Matt Mills (29th), Vinnie Miller (30th) and Joey Gase (33rd). I'm fine with any of them, but I'm almost certainly using Vinnie Miller who has finished in the Top 20 in four of the last five races at Daytona and two of the last three races at Talladega.
  
• B.J. McLeod himself drives an Xfinity car for J.D. Motorsports, not his own team. B.J. starts 23rd on Friday night and that's a little too far forward for me to be real excited about him. But, he does tend to run these races conservatively in the back, so that reduces his risk for getting caught up in the wrecks. His teammate Jeffrey Earnhardt starts next to him in 24th. I'd think Earnhardt would run pretty conservatively as well. He has two Top 15 finishes in his last three plate tracks races in the Xfinity Series.
• Gray Gaulding in the #07 is another solid choice starting 28th. The #02 car finished 8th in both the plate tracks run earlier this year. Gaulding was in the car for the 8th place run at the last plate track race at Talladega. He's finished in the Top 10 in the last three races he's run at plate tracks in the Xfinity Series. The only possible issue here is that he does sometimes try to run with the lead pack, which exposes him to increased risk of wrecking.
• Timmy Hill is back in the #61 this week, so should be good to go for the full race. He finished 3rd in the season opening race at Daytona this Spring. And he's finished 21st or better in his last five races at Daytona.
  • Hill's teammate John Jackson is in the #66 car on Friday night. Jackson drove and parked this car by about Lap 30 at the last plate track race at Talladega. Too risky, notwithstanding the 37th starting spot.
• Mike Harmon starts 35th. He ran the #74 at the two prior plate track races this year, finishing 16th at Daytona and 25th at Talladega. He'll definitely be running conservatively way behind the lead pack, so we just want him to finish the race and avoid the wrecks.

Cup Series (Saturday)

• Chase Elliott has race winning upside from the 27th starting spot. I will almost certainly use him. But, he has no Top 10 finishes at Daytona and he will be running in the lead pack for is at increased risk of wrecking. I think you have to do it in cash games since he's starting 27th and will probably be heavily owned, but I can certainly see a strong case for fading him in tournaments.
  
• Ross Chastain starting 36th is almost a must play if I can confirm this is essentially a Chip Ganassi Racing entry. Ross has been supported by CGR in his other Cup races in the #77 car this year and I believe that's the case again this week.
  
• Corey LaJoie has finished in the Top 18 in the last six races at plate tracks. He's obviously got a good approach working right now. I don't love that he's starting 25th though.
  
• Rickey Stenhouse has some great results at the plate tracks. He's very aggressive though, so isn't the safest of plays. But starting 31st gives us a really solid floor and takes away most of the risk of any kind of negative points day.
  
• Brendan Gaughan started 39th and finished 7th in the season opening Daytona race this Spring. He's got a pretty solid track record at the plate tracks. Starting 40th, he's obviously got a really high floor with a lot of positive place differential upside as well. This is very much a part time team, though, so you wonder how reliable the car will be -- especially with it being prepped in these unusual COVID times.
• There's a number of other decent options starting from 25th on back. Even the Rick Ware cars come into play in a race like this. A guy like J.J. Yeley has finished 18th and 12th in his last two Daytona races in sub-standard equipment. Obviously, these cars are not the most reliable, so we do have mechanical risk.

We've been on a pretty good run here since the NASCAR season resumed. I will NOT be posting any updates this weekend due to other commitments I have this weekend. Bad timing that it happens to be a 5 race weekend! I'll be back for the next Daytona weekend.

We saw in the Xfinity race on Saturday how chaotic a race on the Daytona road course can be. With no practice and the possibility of wet conditions, we just have no idea what might happen. So I think we're well advised to play a lighter load this week. I'm pretty much settled on a modified super speedway approach to Sunday's race. Here's how that would work:

• Start with a guy up front who you feel the most confident about getting a Top 5 result and hopefully throwing in some laps led and fastest laps. The two guys sticking out to me are Chase Elliott and Martin Truex.
  • Elliott has won the last two road course races, including a dominant win at the Charlotte Roval last Fall. That track is the closest comparison to the Daytona road course. In that Roval race, Elliott led 35 laps and ran 30 fastest laps on his way to winning the race.
  • If Elliott is not the top road course driver right now, then it's Truex. He's finished 1st or 2nd in five of the last seven road course events. But, the two races in that stretch where he didn't finish 1st or 2nd were the last two races at the Roval.
  • You could also consider Kyle Busch here. Kyle ran the Rolex 24 at Daytona in January, so he's got the most recent experience on the traditional Daytona road course layout (without the front stretch chicane that was added for the NASCAR events). Busch, too, has struggled at the Charlotte Roval -- finishing 32nd and 37th in the two races on that course. Probably more of a tournament play, but worth mentioning. Since Busch is still not locked into the playoffs, he may also use a strategy to score some stage points, which tends to hurt your chances of having a top finishing position.
• The next group I'd focus on goes from the 24th-30th starting positions. We'll want a few of these guys.
  • Ryan Blaney (24th) has four straight Top 8 finishes at road courses -- including a win in the 2018 race at the Roval. He's got a win and is locked into the playoffs, so he can use a strategy to try to win the race instead of trying for stage points and hurting his chances of finishing up front.
  • Cole Custer (26th) was real solid on the road courses in the Xfinity Series. In his last two years in that Series, he finished in the Top 10 in all eight road course events -- including 7th and 8th place finishes at the Roval.
  • Alex Bowman (27th) has been good at the road courses. In six road course races in the #88 car, Bowman has never finished worse than 14th. And his best two road course finishes are 4th and 2nd place finishes the last two years at the Roval which, again, is the best comparison to this Daytona layout.
  • Michael McDowell (30th) has a road course background. In the last five road course races, he's finished 18th or better four times. He finished 12th at the Roval last year and was 18th at the Roval in 2018. He's not as cheap as he has been, but he only needs to finish 19th or better to hit the 5x return we're looking for. 
• For salary savers, I don't think it would be totally crazy to use a guy like J.J. Yeley or James Davison. Yeley has been running the best of the Rick Ware cars this year and he has plenty of road course experience. As for Davison, he has a ton of road course experience from the Indy Car, IMSA and Grand Am series. He's been in this stock car five times already this year and acquitted himself very well considering it's not top level equipment. He's starting 38th and offers +10 position difference potential in my view.
• A couple other guys of interest:
  • Brendan Gaughan -- Starts dead last in 39th. He's got a lot of road course experience in different sports car series and also more recent races in the Xfinity Series. This is a one race effort, though, so there is always heightened risks that go along with that.
  • Brad Keselowski -- On occasion, Brad has run really well at road courses and he's always been a master at saving fuel if it becomes that kind of race. He starts 17th and should move forward. The question is whether it will be enough to make it worth the $10k+ salary because it's a stretch to think he's going to lead many laps.
  • Clint Bowyer -- Finished 3rd and 4th in the last two races at the Roval. He rolls off 12th on Sunday and can certainly finish in the Top 5 once again. The only concern I have is that he'll probably be aiming for stage points in the first two stages which will put him behind the 8-ball on the preferred strategy of pitting before the end of each stage. This strategy often limits the driver's ability to finish the race up front. But, Clint was racing for stage points at the Roval last year and it worked out, so who knows if he can make it work here too.

Lastly, a few bets I'm playing on Sunday:

• Christopher Bell -115 Ryan Newman
• Chase Elliott +440 to win
• Martin Truex +480 to win
• Chase Elliott +140 Top 3
• Matt DiBenedetto +405 to win Group C (DiBenedetto, Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson)

​

Scroll down to see my article for Saturday's Xfinity Series race.

Just a brief write up for the Trucks race here. This race is only 44 laps, so we can't get too caught up in laps led or fastest laps. The bulk of points will be scored from raw finishing position and position difference. As of this moment, my approach is to play this like a super speedway race. That means starting drivers with the best equipment starting from 20th on back. We have a lot of road course specialists starting back there and I have no problem using them in this situation -- particularly when several of them are in Kyle Busch, GMS or Niece trucks. 

UPDATE: After watching the Xfinity race, I'm thinking of using one guy starting toward the front who I trust to get a Top 5 and possibly throw in a few laps led. In the last two seasons, Brett Moffitt has been one of the best road course racers in this Series. He starts 3rd and the guys on the front row have no road course experience. I think there's a decent chance Moffitt leads early and, by running out front, he stays clear of the chaos that I do expect to take place deeper in the field. 

And a couple of bets I'm playing:

• Austin Hill -115 Ben Rhodes
• Johnny Sauter -120 Zane Smith

The Xfinity Series will be the first to hit the new Daytona road course this weekend on Saturday afternoon. No one in this Series has ever raced on this road course configuration and there will be no pre-race practice. So there is a lot of unpredictability in this race and I'll be playing a little less than I normally do this weekend.

In addition, there are only 52 laps, so we're only going to have 13 total points awarded for laps led and (after caution laps are removed) a little over 20 total points for fastest laps. That means points for raw finishing position and position difference are key. And any points lost for finishing worse than a driver's starting spot are going to be killers.

I think the first question you need to answer is whether you want to spend up for Austin Cindric or A.J. Allmendinger. Cindric has a good chance of leading early, but there's increased risk with that this week because Chase Briscoe starts right next to him on the front row. So Cindric will face a stiff challenge for the lead from the get go. And, Allmendinger starts much further forward this week, so he's likely to be in the Top 5 pretty quickly and well within striking distance before the end of Stage 1 -- especially in the likely event we see some caution flags early in this race. A race win gives Cindric 46 DK points. So he's going to need another 9 points from laps led and fastest laps to hit 5x value. This is certainly doable, although 55-60 points is really the ceiling of what Cindric can do if everything falls perfectly for him.

As for Allmendinger, he's a very safe bet for a Top 5 finish and very likely a Top 3. I'd expect Cindric and AJ to be on the same pit strategy (going for the win and ignoring stage points), so I think AJ will have to pass Cindric on the track to beat him and win the race. I do like his chances -- especially after rewatching the Charlotte Roval race from last Fall. AJ was just toying with everyone for the first two stages and then ran away with the win in the final stage. He was clearly the best and fastest car there. That track layout is a lot like Daytona and very clearly the best comp to this new layout. The issue with AJ, of course, is his salary and how it hampers the rest of your roster.

As of now, I'm thinking these two guys (plus Briscoe) split the laps led and fastest laps points enough that none of them pulls away and puts up a big number. The best lineup in that scenario is to simply grab as much position difference upside as you can. So, let's look at my favorite plays with that in mind in descending salary order.

• Justin Allgaier - Great cash game play if you are not using Cindric or AJ. This should easily be a Top 10 car and should be in the Top 6 barring an issue. He's starting this far back because he got wrecked late in the race at Road America and finishing position in the last race was a big factor in the formula used to determine the starting order this week.
• Daniel Hemric - Also should be a Top 10 car. He's not a great or race winning road course driver, but he's solid and in top equipment. Starting this far back because his engine blew up early at Road America.
• Earl Bamber - Elite IMSA road course driver in a top RCR car. But it's his first ever race in a stock car. That is concerning with no practice. Bamber has a ton of experience on the traditional Daytona road course layout, but not with the added front stretch chicane added for the NASCAR races this weekend. Kaz Grala finished 4th in this car last week at Road America (although he started much farther forward as well), so the speed should be there to finish in the Top 10 with +20 position difference.
• Brandon Gdovic - Another road course specialist with little NASCAR experience. It is helpful that Gdovic ran this car earlier this year at the Indy road course race. He started 38th there and finished 12th. I think it's a stretch to be confident he can finish that well again, but a Top 20 is likely if he doesn't have an issue. 
• Jeremy Clements and Alex Labbe - Basically the same guy here. Both will finish in (over very near) the Top 10 if they avoid trouble. I'd lean Labbe as the safer option but Clements as having just a bit more upside. Both were running really well last week until having issues. Labbe over drove a corner, spun Myatt Snider and had to race back through a bunch of lead lap cars. Clements was involved in the late race restart wreck that got Allgaier as well.
• Myatt Snider - A Top 12-15 car if he doesn't have issues. But he tends to have issues. As just mentioned, he got spun by Labbe last week and got some damage that really killed his race.
• Jake Buford and Scott Heckert - Both are very good road course drivers. Buford is in the better car by far. Heckert had some speed last week but was having an ignition issue that kept cropping up throughout the race. The reliability of his car is really a big question mark.
• Kyle Weatherman - I personally think it's a terrible play because of how unreliable the Mike Harmon cars are. Weatherman's teammate didn't even make it through the pace laps without the car breaking down last week. But a lot of people seem to be going toward him lately, so I wanted to mention him. He might get some ownership because of his salary and starting position. A 20th or so is his ceiling in my view. 

We'll wrap up a busy four race weekend with another 312 mile Cup Series race at Michigan. For some reason, Draft Kings continues to release salaries before the Saturday race so we've got some very mispriced place differential plays with the guys who finished poorly on Saturday. That ends up making most of a good cash game lineup for us and should lead to some real chalky plays on Sunday.

• Cole Custer, Austin Dillon and Rickey Stenhouse all showed easy Top 20 speed on Saturday but had something go wrong in the last 10 laps to ruin their day.
  • Custer was 16th in green flag speed and had an average running position of 17th on Saturday. He cut a tire with less than 10 laps to go (he tweeted that he got put into the wall - didn't say by whom - which caused the tire to go down) while running in the Top 20. He will be in a backup and starting from the rear on Sunday, but his official starting spot is already 34th so that really doesn't matter.
  • Austin Dillon was 17th in both green flag speed and average running position on Saturday. He got tangled up with Christopher Bell with about 5 laps to go and got heavy damage from the wall and collisions with Ryan Newman and Michael McDowell. He finished 31st. Again, he will probably be in a backup starting from the rear but being scored from 31st.
  • Stenhouse was 12th in green flag speed and 14th in average running position Saturday. He got a flat tire on the last overtime restart and went from a Top 12 finish all the way back to 32nd as the last car on the lead lap. NBC never showed what happened, so I don't know if this will be a backup or not. At those speeds, a flat tire can do a ton of damage but I don't even know how fast Stenhouse got going before he realized it was down.
• Ryan Newman, Michael McDowell and John Hunter Nemechek are other guys who offer position difference upside at reasonable salaries.
  • To me, something seems off with Newman right now and he's the most expensive of this group. He was only 29th in green flag speed with an average running position of 25th on Saturday. He was involved in the Bell, Dillon, McDowell incident late in the race and fell back further because of damage from that crash. He'll probably be in a back up car starting from the rear (but keeping his 28th starting spot for fantasy scoring purposes).
  • McDowell was doing fine until the incident we just talked about. He was 24th in green flag speed with an average running position of 26th on Saturday. McDowell will probably be in a back up Sunday as well.
  • Nemechek got spun by Chris Buescher on Lap 94 and never seemed to recover. He got several flat tires and spun out several additional times after that. He's the riskiest of this group, but also has the most upside starting 36th. He was actually 21st in green flag speed on Saturday, which was just faster than Bubba Wallace, who finished 9th.
• As far as the big guns go, Kevin Harvick seems like a must play kind of guy after his performance on Saturday. He was the best in green flag speed, average running position, laps led and fastest laps. Anyway you want to look at it, he was the best on Saturday. And he'll have the #1 pit stall and position difference upside starting from 20th on Sunday.
  • The numbers show Denny Hamlin had the next best car on Saturday. He was 2nd in green flag speed, had the 2nd best average running position and had the 2nd most fastest laps. Also, as I talk more about below, Denny has really done well on the back half of these back-to-back races. In three of those races this year, he's finished 1st (Darlington), 2nd (Charlotte) and 1st (Pocono).
  • I also really like Ryan Blaney at under $10k. He was 3rd in green flag speed on Saturday. He had some unconventional pit strategies that helped at times and hurt at others. His salary should be over $10k.
  • You can't go wrong with other guys like Martin Truex, Brad Keselowski and possibly Kyle Busch. If you like them better, fire away. I lean slightly to the guys I'm mentioning here but that doesn't mean I don't like all of those guys as well.
• As more tournament or contrarian plays, I like Eric Jones, Alex Bowman and Kurt Busch.

The last thing I wanted to mention is that I went back and looked at how the teams have done in other "double header" situations since the season resumed. We had back-to-back races at Darlington, Charlotte and a true double header weekend at Pocono not too long ago. I figure that looking at this could help tell us what teams are doing the best at making the overnight adjustments needed to improve their result in the second race of a back-to-back situation. Four guys stood out:

• Hamlin -- Finished 1st at Darlington 2, 2nd at Charlotte 2, and 1st at Pocono 2.
• Harvick -- 3rd at Darlington 2, 10th at Charlotte 2 (but with 63 laps led and 37 fastest laps), and 2nd at Pocono 2.
• Chase Elliott -- He got wrecked at the end of Darlington 2, but was running 2nd and had 28 laps led and 14 fastest laps. He had the best car that night. He finished 1st at Charlotte 2 and 4th at Pocono 2.
• William Byron -- He improved from the first to second race in all three back-to-back races. At Darlington, he was 35th and then 12th. At Charlotte, he was 21st and then 12th. And at Pocono, he was 14th and then 7th. It makes sense to think Chad Knaus would be one of the better crew chiefs at setting up the car to be better in race two. It will be tough to move up from his 7th starting spot on Sunday -- especially since he was only 18th in green flag speed on Saturday -- but he might be worth a dart throw in multi-entry tournaments.

Don't have much time available to write up something for Saturday's race. The field is loaded up front and I could see any of the Top 5 starters leading at the beginning and for a good chunk of the race. Factor in a competition caution at Lap 15 and it's even more uncertain as to what the guys up front will do.

Also, despite the race name -- FireKeepers Casino 400 -- the race is only 312 miles long with 156 laps. With the uncertainty up front and somewhat reduced number of laps, it might be that the best strategy for this first race is to focus a little more on position difference upside. I'm seeing a lot of good plays starting just outside the Top 10 and I'm still a sucker for the crappy  Christopher Bell starting spot.

I'm hoping to have more time to give you a better breakdown for Sunday's race #2.  

UPDATE IN BOLD

All I care about is finishing position and position difference here. There are so few laps and so many different pit strategies available that none of the normal dominator stuff matters much to me. Here are some of the best position difference targets I see:

• AJ Allmendinger - Duh. Just use him in cash games and don't waste any thought on it.
• Preston Pardus - Another duh for me. He looked really good on the Indy road course earlier this year and he has Road America experience. With no practice before the race, I really want guys who know Road America and did the Indy road course already this year. Pardus fits those criteria.
• Josh Bilicki - Similar to Pardus. Bilicki is approaching road course ringer status. He finished 23rd at the Indy road course, but was running higher up before getting hit and damaged through no fault of his own. 
• Myatt Snider - Another similar profile. Ran 16th at the Indy road course and got a lot of road course experience in Europe last year.

Austin Cindric probably wins this race and should lead a bunch of laps early. With only 45 laps though, can he lead enough and run enough fast laps to outscore the position difference guys starting behind him?

UPDATE -- So this race has some funky, experimental pit road rules that are really going to change pit strategy. They're doing this because it's a stand alone event and they don't have the Cup Series pit crew guys in town to man the Xfinity pit crews. Normally, teams looking to win the race would pit for fuel and tires before each stage break because they stay on the lead lap and then pass all the cars that stayed out to get stage points when those cars pit at the stage break. I don't that works with the new pit rules in place this week.

Here are some key points as I understand them --

• (1) If you pit under green, you cannot change tires (unless you have a flat or damage). Fuel only is all that you can do if you pit under green. There is also a 60 second MINIMUM time that you must stay on pit road if you pit under green.
• (2) During stage breaks and when the caution comes out, the running order is frozen at the time of caution. Teams can then come down pit road to either change tires OR fuel the car -- but not both. And you can't lose spots on pit road. The cars will leave in the order they entered. If a team wants to change tires AND fuel the car, they will need to pit a second time during the caution period. Any cars that pit twice under the caution would start behind all the cars that pitted only once. (For a non-stage break caution, NASCAR can declare it a Quickie Caution in which case teams would have only one opportunity to pit at which time they would have to choose between changing tires OR fueling the car.)
  
• This is going to be a mess and I'm not sure what most teams will do. I think the best strategy for a team trying to win the race is to pit for fuel before each of the stage breaks. Those cars could then change tires during the stage break and restart in front of any car who hadn't pitted before the stage break and needs to stop twice during the caution period. I think that strategy makes the most sense for everyone except those really needing stage points to make the playoffs. (Herbst, Sieg, Brown, Clements, Hemric and Snider are all guys hovering near the points cut off line for the playoffs.) They will likely stay out to get their stage points and then pit twice during the stage breaks. They would then restart behind everyone who tool fuel under green and only changed tires during the stage break.
  

I think this could bump up Austin Cindric because he should get the lead early and I think he can keep it most of the race if he follows the strategy right. He will give up a few laps led if he does a fuel stop before the stage break, but he should then cycle back to the lead for the restart. But, having said that, I do expect we'll see some creative strategy plays that could throw everything off and result in an oddball leader for a portion of the race.

FRIDAY ADDITIONS IN BOLD BELOW

I'm going to be focusing on finishing position and position difference in this race. That is because we really don't see any dominators collecting a ton of laps led or fastest laps at Michigan Truck races. In the last three races here, only Kyle Busch in 2017 led more than 26 laps. In the other two races, we've saw multiple drivers lead somewhere between 10-26 laps. Even more important, we rarely see anyone get more than 10 fastest laps because the draft plays such a big role at a long, high speed track like Michigan. In the last three Michigan races, only one driver had more than 10 fastest laps in each race -- and none of them got to 20 fastest laps. In short, we've been seeing dominator points capped at about 15 points in recent Michigan races -- an amount that can easily be matched by position difference scoring.

With that background, I'm going to talk first about four position different drivers I think will be very heavily targeted across the board on Friday night:

• John Hunter Nemechek (starting 34th) -- The most expensive driver on the slate has a lot of position difference upside. I'd say something in the 6th-8th range is a reasonable target if he doesn't run into any issues. But there are a lot of risks here. First, JHN is very aggressive to begin with and this is a one off "checkers or wreckers" type situation for him. Second, this is a part time team and the equipment isn't always reliable. Especially in the COVID and no testing times, the already significant risk here of mechanical failure is increased. In two races this season, JHN finished 6th at Charlotte and 25th at Atlanta. In the Atlanta race, his truck got heavy damage front and back during a pit road collision at the end of Stage 1. It wasn't his fault, but the damage really slowed him down the rest of the day. He has no laps led and 3 fastest laps in his two races this year. Last year, JHN did five races in this truck and finished 29th or worse four times. He had two accidents and two mechanical failures knocking him out of races. The one successful race in 2019 was a 7th place finish at Martinsville.
• Parker Klingerman (starting 35th) -- Parker has done five Trucks series races in 2019 and 2020 so far. In his two races this year, he finished 15th at Pocono and 18th at Kentucky. Last year, he finished 20th at Atlanta, 13th at Bristol and 10th at Homestead. The numbers pretty clearly show what the situation is with these two. JHN has more upside, but more chance for a bad finish and Parker is going to pretty reliably finish somewhere between 10th - 20th. Neither is likely to lead laps and both could grab a handful of fastest laps in the draft.
• Tyler Hill (starting 30th) -- This is a quality truck and Tyler is too cheap at $4,900. This truck has finished just inside the Top 20 in four of the last five races and that's a reasonable expectation here.
• Austin Wayne Self (starting 27th) -- This is another driver that seems under priced at $6,000. He pretty clearly offers the best combination of reliability and upside in this price range. He has four straight Top 20 finishes this season and has seven Top 20 finishes in ten races this year. In the last four Michigan races, Self has finished 16th, 15th, 11th and a fluky 5th last year. In all, though, great results of late this year and in all recent Michigan races. 

I don't see any reason to not use Hill and Self in cash games. As far as other position difference options if you want to go away from JHN or Klingerman, here are my top choices:

• Ben Rhodes - He's finished in the Top 5 in three of the last five races this season. And he was really fast last year at Michigan before cutting a tire and having to pit twice under the green flag. Prior to that, he had led 16 laps and run 10 fastest laps.
• Todd Gilliland - Been pretty good all year with Top 5-8 potential.
• Stewart Friesen - Been off all year. He's an option but I don't feel great about it.

Lastly, if you want to try to find a dominator, I think Austin Hill and Brett Moffitt have the best chance of being the guy who puts up the 10+ fastest laps and leads the most laps. The issue with both of them, as I summarized at the start, is that they have no meaningful position difference upside so they're going to need that 10+ dominator points to make it worth using them.

ADDED: I could also see Zane Smith being a guy who can finish in the Top 3 and get you 10 or so dominator points. If salary were no issue, I'd rank him 3rd behind Hill and Moffitt. But salary is an issue and Zane is quite a bit cheaper, so he's worth a look starting 7th which gives him some room for a position difference impact as well.