Last week, the key question was what to do with Kyle Busch.  The correct answer turned out to be to play him.  I happened to win all my cash games and 50/50s even though I didn't use Busch in those contests, but that was a rarity.  Roughly speaking, Busch was used in about 50% of the cash game lineups I saw and those Busch lineups cashed about 75-80% of the time.  In one contest I was in, 15 places cashed and Busch was on 12 of the 15 rosters that cashed.  Only 3 rosters with Busch finished out of the money.  So Busch lineups were 12-3.  In another, 30 places cashed and Busch was on 27 of the 30 rosters that cashed.  Only 8 rosters with Busch finished out of the money.  So Busch lineups were 27-8.  Bottom line -- most people who used Busch cashed and most who did not use him did not cash.

My experience in tournaments was even more lopsided in favor of using Busch.  In the $20K Octane tournament, Busch was on every single one of the Top 45 finishing lineups.  He was 48.9% owned in that tournament.

So is there any reason not to use him again this week in Vegas?  In the plus column for Busch, he won this race from the pole last year and led 55 laps.  In addition, we're starting to get a bit better feel on what teams know what they're doing so I feel a bit more comfortable using some of the salary savers I was hesitant to use last week.  On the downside, his salary increased $500 this week to $15,500.  And, qualifying was rained out last week, so Busch started 7th and gained +6 position difference points.  He's very likely to start on pole this week, so won't have any position difference upside but instead even more downside risk should something go wrong during the race.

Given last week's result, I think we'll see Busch ownership up even more this week.  Most who used him cashed, so they'll use him again.  Most who didn't use him lost, so they'll move towards him this week.  Since I'm guessing his ownership will be 60%+ this week, I'm inclined to use him in all formats because it will be near impossible to cash if he does dominate once again.  That said, if you want to take a high risk, high reward approach, you can fade him and you'll certainly cash everything if he does run into trouble.  Also, if you play multiple tournament lineups, definitely throw in a contrarian one or two without him so you can cash out there if things go wrong for him during the race.

I'll do a quick update before Friday lock to identify my favorite salary savers to pair with Busch.

Some other drivers with strong history at Vegas are:

• Ben Rhodes -- 4th, 7th, 1st in last three Vegas races
• Johnny Sauter -- 2nd place finisher in last two Vegas races
• Grant Enfinger -- won Fall Vegas race last year (Busch did not participate) and has finished 1st, 4th, 9th, 10th in the last four Vegas races -- very under priced at $9K
• Matt Crafton -- Top 8 finishes in three of the last four Vegas races
• Stewart Friesen -- Finished in the Top 8 in eight of the ten races at 1.5 mile tracks last year -- was 5th and 17th at Vegas

This will be the first race using most of the new rules package in the Cup series.  In all honesty, no one really has much of an idea how everything is going to shake out when we get 40 cars up to speed using this new package.  Now add in the extreme tire fall off at Atlanta PLUS the fact that it's been cloudy all weekend thus far, rained on Saturday night to wash all the rubber off the track, but is predicted to be sunny by race time Sunday afternoon.  Simply put, no one can meaningfully forecast how this race will go.

Here are my lineup thoughts:

• What to do with Harvick?  Since joining SHR five years ago, he's never led less than 110 laps in the Atlanta race.  He's simply been a beast at this track.  The question is whether this new rules package slows him down.  He starts 18th, so comes with massive upside if he's able to get to the front and lead the kind of laps he has the last five years.  I haven't made a final decision, but I'm leaning toward fading him in cash games and 50/50s.  While I like that he made a very long run in final practice and showed excellent long run speed, I'm not convinced he'll mow down the field like in years past and his top price prevents you from getting the balance you want from a cash lineup.
  
• There are some good options starting even further back in the field -- Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano all start from 22nd on back.  I like all of them for cash games.  Elliott has finished in the Top 10 here in each of his three Cup series races -- twice coming from a starting spot of 24th or worse.  Since coming to Team Penske, Logano has finished in the Top 6 in four of his six races here.  He hasn't finished worse than 14th in those races.  Blaney does not have great history here, but he does come with an enticing $8,900 salary and almost no downside risk from his 26th place starting spot.
  
• Clint Bowyer has shown great short run speed this weekend, but his lack of success at 1.5 mile tracks worries me.  In 24 such races at SHR, he has only six Top 10 finishes and has led a grand total of 45 laps in those races.  I'm also concerned that he didn't run even 10 consecutive laps in final practice, so we don't have any indicator of his longer run speed.  From his 3rd place starting spot, he's a tournament only play for me.
  
• Chris Buescher looks enticed at $6,200 and starting 30th.  But he's finished in the mid-20's in all three of his Cup series races here.  He's still a good play, but don't expect anything more than that.
• From the very bottom, salary saver tier, I think Chastain, Cassill and Klingerman are your best bets -- probably in that order.  I don't like any of them, but if that's the salary you have left, there you go.
• I like Kyle Busch as a tournament play.  He was clearly the fastest car in final practice before hitting the wall.  He'll go to a backup car and start from the rear despite officially having the 6th place starting spot.  Particularly in a 500 mile race, he has plenty of time to go through the field and lead 150+ laps if his backup car has similar speed.  Also, they say these cars with the new rules package drive a bit like the trucks.  Did you see how KB carved up the truck field on Saturday?
• I'd also throw Larson into some tournament lineups.  He had the best 20-lap average speed in final practice and was second on the 10-lap chart behind Busch.  It wouldn't shock me if Larson dials in the top groove and drives around people that way just like Tyler Reddick did all race long in the Xfinity championship race at Homestead last year.

I'm never going to have a complete rundown on Xfinity or truck races because of the short time between qualifying and the race.  So much depends on starting spot and I just don't have the availability to post updates on here after qualifying.  I still like to provide a few notes that could help in making some of those roster decisions:

Xfinity

• Alex Labbe is under priced at $5,300.  Lock him in barring a crazy high starting spot.  In fact, I like the salary for both he and his DGM teammate Josh Williams at $6,500.
• Gragson ($9,000) and Cindric ($9,800) seem favorably priced just below the top tier.
• Of the top tier, I think I like Allgaier the best at his price -- subject to starting spot in qualifying, of course.
• The last three years, this race has been dominated by Cup series guys crossing over -- Harvick, Logano, Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson.  It will be fun to see the Xfinity guys duke it out this year, but it leaves us with a little less clear picture of how we can expect it to shake out.

Trucks

• Harrison Burton and Grant Enfinger look like good mid-value plays to me.  Both are in top notch equipment.  Burton has not run in the truck series at Atlanta, but finished 6th and 11th in the two truck races he did run at 1.5 mile tracks last year.  Enfinger has finished in the Top 10 the last three seasons at Atlanta and finished in the Top 8 in seven of the ten races at 1.5 mile tracks last year.
• What to do with Kyle Busch?  At $15,000, it is really hard to build a credible lineup with him in it.  You would have to have two or three salary punts and the punts are really bad in the truck series.  If you do use multiple punts, I would look at Spencer Boyd, Jennifer Jo Cobb and Cory Roper.  In 10 races at 1.5 mile tracks last year, Cobb never finished worse than her starting spot.  That said, she still usually finished from the mid-20s on back.
• While it's easy to expect Busch to dominate, he's actually struggled at times in the truck series.  In his last two Atlanta races, he's started 1st or 2nd but finished 21st and 26th.  He was in four truck races last year at 1.5 mile tracks.  He won at Kansas and led 55 laps.  He finished 2nd in two other races with a total of 1 lap led in those two races.  In Atlanta last year, he started 1st, finished 21st, but led 67 laps.  So he didn't really dominate any of those races from start to finish -- which is what you would need to give a lineup with his salary any chance of winning. 
• I'm leaning toward fading Busch in cash games and maybe using him in a few tournament lineups.  That could change if he doesn't start up front or if extreme value opens up elsewhere to where we can make the salary work.

This is the first week we will see the new tapered spacer in action for the Cup series.  The new engine package is designed to cut HP down from about 750 to 550.  It's expected this will keep the cars closer together.  A big question is whether they will be able to actually pass.

Given the dramatic change in the package, I'm not sure how much past results here mean for us this week.  I'm going to wait until we see practice on Friday (hopefully, since rain is in the forecast) to do much more analysis.  So please check back after we see some on track action.

On to the main event, The Daytona 500.  Let's hope it offers a bit more excitement compared to the Xfinity race on Saturday.  With the way the cars have played follow the leader around the top of the track this week, I'm a bit worried about our normal plate track strategy of using guys starting from 20th on back.  I do think we'll see more action in the 500 though, so I still think that's the way to go for cash games and 50/50s.  In tournaments, however, I'm definitely playing it more aggressive (and risky) by using some guys starting closer to the front.  Here are some more detailed lineup building notes:

• Brad Keselowski (starting 35th) and Kyle Busch (31st) -- These guys should be at near 100% ownership in cash games.  They aren't all that expensive to begin with and, in any event, salary savings are easy to find at the plate tracks.  The upside here is massive and there's virtually no downside in the way of a crushing negative return that you can get with guys starting in the front half of the field.  There's absolutely no reason to fade either of these guys in cash games. 
• Keselowski and Busch (continued) -- In tournaments, I could see fading one (or even both) to differentiate yourself, but I think that strategy (especially fading both) is best reserved for the really big, multi-entry contests.  Before you say it's crazy to fade both, consider this from last year's Daytona 500 -- Keselowski started 31st and Jimmie Johnson started 35th, the exact same scenario we have this year with KB and BK.  Well, in last year's race, Keselowski finished 32nd and scored only 12 DK points while Johnson finished 38th and scored only 3.5 DK points.  There's almost no chance that happens again here, but you would jump 90%+ of the field if you fade both guys and lighting strikes for a second year in a row.
• Eric Jones (28th) and Kyle Larson (26th) -- It's really hard to fade either of these guys in cash games as well.  We know Eric Jones won the last Cup race at Daytona in July and he did so from the 29th starting spot.  Larson hasn't had recent success here, but he's obviously with a strong team and is likely to have the speed to move forward.  He did finish in the Top 10 in both Daytona races in 2016 as well, so he has shown strong performance here in the past.  Finally, I suspect both will be at or near 50% ownership in cash games so, if either guy (or both) finishes up front and you don't have him (or them), you'll be digging out of a huge hole and will really have to hit on your last two guys.
• Here are some guys I'd be looking at to fill out the roster.  I'll separate them into two groups -- guys starting 15th-25th and those from 26th on back.
• 15th-25th:  Ryan Newman (19th) -- three straight Top 10 finishes at Daytona and worst finish of 21st in the last six Daytona races.  Austin Dillon (20th) -- two Top 10 finishes at Daytona last year (including a win in the 500) and four Top 10 finishes in the last six Daytona races.  Also like Chris Buescher (15th) and Ty Dillon (22nd) as contrarian tournament only plays.
• 26th and beyond:  Michael McDowell (34th) -- Finished 15th or better in five of the last six Daytona races.  Tyler Reddick (39th) -- Done well at Daytona in the Xfinity series and he'll be running in strong equipment in the #31 from Richard Childress.  Also like Brendan Gaughan (30th), Corey Lajoie (32nd) and Ross Chastain (36th), but more as tournament plays because they are with weaker teams so, among other things, won't have true teammates to pit with or work with in the draft and will have less reliable equipment and pit stops.

Good luck and let's hope for an entertaining, but safe, race.

It was awesome to see all the new Draft Kings truck series contests fill up well before lock time.  Let's hope it continues and DK increases the prize pools available to our NASCAR crew.  On to Saturday's Xfinity race:

• Again, so much depends on starting spot.  I'll do the best I can to identify some potential targets here, but really everyone is on the table for me depending on starting spot.
• Keselowski will obviously be very highly owned if he doesn't qualify up top.  He's only raced in one Daytona race in the last three seasons.  In 2017, he started 6th and finished 4th.  He does have three consecutive Top 5 finishes here dating back to 2014.  I'm generally comfortable with him in all formats, but he does carry a lot of risk since he'll probably be starting in the Top 6-8 and there is a major position difference downside if he gets caught up in a wreck.
• Tyler Reddick won this race last year.  He has two straight Top 10 finishes in the February Daytona race and three Top 10 finishes in the last six plate track races.
• Justin Allgaier has a very strong plate track history despite 30+ place finishes in three of the last four Daytona races.  He finished 9th at Daytona last July and has back-to-back Top 10 finishes at the other plate track in Talladega.
• Ross Chastain finished 16th, 6th, 9th and 10th in the last four Daytona races.
• Justin Haley is on a solid team and should have won the last Daytona race in July.  He is under priced at $6,800.
• Garrett Smithley finished 8th and 5th in the last two February Daytona races.  And he has three Top 10 finishes in the last six plate track races.
• Vinnie Miller finished in the Top 20 in all three plate track races last season.
• Timmy Hill finished 17th and 7th in his last two Daytona starts.
• Jeff Green has four Top 20 finishes in the last six plate track races.
• As these last couple of notes indicate, the weekly "start and park" issue we face with Xfinity races isn't really an issue here.  Most every team tries to run this race in full and doesn't voluntarily pull out and park the car during the race.  These teams realize it's one of their few chances to get exposure, have a decent finish and earn more prize money, so they tend to run out these races.

The regular season is upon us.  There is so much turnover in the truck series that it's really hard to do a traditional analysis.  Not many drivers have an established history at the tracks to identify them as good tracks or bad tracks for the drivers.  Plus a lot of the analysis has to be done before qualifying since that takes place so close to lock time.  All that means the truck updates I do will be more general in nature.

We do still have useful information to help identify some of the best bets to finish near the front on Friday night.  So here we go:

• As always, starting spot will be key.  The winning formula at the plate track races is generally to focus on cars starting in the back half of the field.  I'd put a little less emphasis on that in the truck series because some of the back markers really don't have the resources or ability to hold up even at the plate tracks.
• Trucks starting in the Top 10 have not done well in the last three Daytona races.  Of the 30 trucks starting in the Top 10 in those three races, only 9 finished in the Top 10.  And, 12 of those 30 trucks finished 20th or worse.  The sweet spot has been trucks in the 15th-28th starting spots.  Those trucks have made up over half the Top 10 finishers in the last three races.  So we're looking to identify trucks on credible teams starting mid-pack.
• The GMS racing team has had incredible success at the plate tracks and Daytona in particular in the last three seasons.  Their drivers have won the last three season opening Daytona races.  The team has also won two of the last three Talladega races.  So GMS has won five of the last six truck races run at the plate tracks.  Their entries this year are the #2 of Sheldon Creed and the #24 of Brett Moffitt.  They are both on the radar depending on starting spot.
• Johnny Sauter was the GMS driver who won two of the last three Daytona races.  He has moved on to ThorSport, which is a strong team as well.  A very strong chance he makes the roster unless he qualifies way up front.
• The old man Joe Nemechek has run incredibly well at Daytona recently.  He's completed all the laps and finished 3rd and 5th in the last two races.
• Ben Rhodes has finished 4th, 12th and 7th in the last three Daytona races and completed all 300 laps run in those races.
• Matt Crafton is a grizzled veteran on a good team and will be on my roster if he starts further back. 
• To reiterate, so much depends on starting spot here.  So don't get locked into anything until after qualifying is complete.

I was shocked in a good way to see that Draft Kings is going to run contests for the truck series this year.  I love the opportunity that's out there particularly for the truck and Xfinity series contests.

My goal is to post some notes on Thursday/Friday to help you build truck and Xfinity lineups.  I won't have a chance to do anything (except possibly post a quick sentence or two) between qualifying and the race for those two series.  For the Cup Series, I'll do a comprehensive update Saturday night.

So please check back often.  I also tweet out when updates are posted, so follow along there @fantasynascargu 

Some general comments on my approach to plate track races.  Looking back at 3 years of data from Daytona, it is very clear that you want to build your lineups around guys starting from 20th on back.  It is just too risky to take more than 1 or 2 guys starting in the Top 20 because so many of those drivers get involved in an incident and finish from 30th on back.  The negative position difference in that situation just kills you.  The guys starting further back have much more limited downside and much more substantial upside.  So, as a general rule, I'm looking for drivers on credible teams starting further back.  When I say a credible team, it means an established team with a good engine shop or supplier and a good pit crew.  This should keep unforced errors to a minimum and give your drivers the best chance to finish the race in one piece on the lead lap.

Here are a few drivers who stick out when I study recent Daytona results:

• Joey Logano -- The defending champ seems to rise to the occasion in the biggest races.  In the past three Daytona 500 races, he's finished 4th, 6th and 6th.  That said, he tends to start too far forward to be a viable cash game play.  He might be a tournament option though.
• Ryan Newman -- He's finished the last three Daytona races in the Top 10, and has finished in the Top 18 in five of the last six.  That's a remarkably consistent performance at a plate track.  However, he has switched teams from RCR to Rousch, which is some cause for concern.
• Bubba Wallace -- Finished in the Top 15 in all three of his Daytona races -- including a 2nd place finish in his only Daytona 500 last year.
• Ryan Blaney -- He's been a huge point scorer in the last two Daytona 500 races.  In 2017, he started 36th but finished 2nd for a huge + PD day.  In 2018, he started 3rd and finished 7th, but incredibly led 118 laps.  We almost never see such a dominant lap leader at a plate track.  Unlike most other tracks, however, those laps led rarely translate into fastest laps.  When Blaney led 118 laps, he still only had 5 fastest laps which limited his bonus point total.
• Chris Buescher -- Top 10 in the last three Daytona races.  This whole company -- JTG Daugherty -- has been very strong at Daytona the last few years.  I'd hesitate to use his new teammate Ryan Preece, however, given his youth and inexperience in a Cup car.  Starting spot will determine whether Buescher is a lock and whether Preece can become a viable option.
• Austin Dillon -- The defending race winner has four Top 10 finishes in the last six Daytona races.  Again, this company -- RCR -- as a whole has been strong here the last several years. 
• Lots will change after pole qualifying and The Duels next Thursday.  Since starting spot means so much, we won't have a useful list of real targets until the field is set.

Lastly, if you have not heard about the major NASCAR post-race inspection change announced earlier this week, please go read about it here.  The short of it is that post-race inspection will now be done on site immediately following the race.  If the race winner fails inspection, he will be disqualified and the drivers who finished behind him will move up a spot so long as they do pass inspection.  This could result in major changes to the race results in the hour or two following the race.  I have not yet definitively heard if FanDuel and DK will wait to determine and pay contest winners until after inspection is complete.  I assume they will, but have not yet seen official word.

Just wanted to give a quick update on Daytona coverage you can expect here.  In the next day or two I'll be posting some general Daytona information, including some good and bad driver history here as well as some general strategy points for plate track races.  All that can help you build lineups for The Clash this weekend and the 500 the following weekend.

After that, I'll go dark for a few days because I'm moving and won't have a whole lot of TV or Internet access.

Late next week we'll have full coverage leading into the official season opening Daytona races.

Glad to have NASCAR back.