Here's a mid-week look ahead at the Darlington race on Sunday night.  There are two practice sessions on Friday, qualifying only on Saturday and the race on Sunday night.  It's a nice spread out schedule that will give us plenty of time to analyze results and plan our lineups.  The weather forecast looks decent with only a slight chance of storms on Friday and Saturday.  It doesn't look like anything will get washed out.

Before getting too deep into driver notes and targets, here are a few general points to keep in mind for this race:

• We have 367 laps, so points for laps led and fastest laps will be critical on DK in particular.  There are 91.75 points out there for laps led and 183.5 points for fastest laps.  So we want to look at how those ended up being allocated the last few years to help us understand how to build the best lineup.
• In 2017, we had two Dominators.  Denny Hamlin had 124 laps led and 47 fastest laps for 54.5 points and Kyle Larson had 124 laps led and 52 fastest laps for 57 points.  Martin Truex wasn't too far behind them at 76 laps led and 46 fastest laps for 42 points.
• In 2016 and 2015, however, one Dominator separated from the rest of the field.
• In 2016, it was Kevin Harvick with 214 laps led and 48 fastest laps for 77.5 points.  The next closest was Brad Keselowski with 47 laps led and 41 fastest laps for 32.25 points.
• In 2015, the big dog was Brad Keselowski with 196 laps led and 41 fastest laps for 69.5 points.  The next closest was Kevin Harvick with 44 laps led and 34 fastest laps for 28 points.
• In the last three races at Darlington, Kyle Busch has led a collective total of 10 laps and run a collective total of 28 fastest laps.  So that's a total of 16.5 extra points in the last three races combined.  That's not to say he can't dominate this weekend -- only pointing out he's been nowhere close to Dominator status the last three years.

Here are some preliminary driver targets:

• Denny Hamlin -- He won last year, although post-race inspection uncovered a rear suspension violation and the win was deemed "encumbered".  He does have a great history here.  In the last 8 races here, he has 2 wins and 6 Top 5 finishes.  In the last 3 races here, he's finished 1st, 4th and 3rd.  He has a very modest $9,900 price tag on DK.
• Kevin Harvick -- He's been really, really good here with SHR.  In the four races since joining SHR, he's been on the pole three times.  In two of those four years he has absolutely dominated the race.  In 2016, he started from pole, finished second but led 214 laps.  In 2014, he started from pole, won the race and led 238 laps.  Last year, he was on pole again, but finished 9th with only 22 laps led.  He did have several issues on pit stops in that race, which certainly held him back.  At $11,400 DK, he is a full $1K cheaper then Kyle Busch and $700 cheaper then Kyle Larson.  Very odd.
• Martin Truex -- Finished 8th, 1st and 9th in the last three races here.  Last year, he started 2nd, finished 8th and led 76 laps.  In 2016, he won, but led only 28 laps.
• Kyle Busch -- As we noted above, he hasn't dominated here of late.  But he still has finished in the Top 11 in each of the last 8 races here.  In the last four races, he's finished 2nd, 11th, 7th and 6th.  He last dominated a race here in 2013 when he started 3rd, finished 6th and led 265 laps.  As the most expensive driver on both sites, he might be hard to justify in a cash game given his price tag and lack of recent domination here.
• Eric Jones -- Started 10th, finished 5th last year in his lone Cup Series race here.  In two Xfinity races here, he had similar results -- in 2016, he started 10th, finished 6th and in 2017, he started 11th, finished 4th.  Still reasonably priced at $8,700 on DK.
• Ryan Newman -- In four races here with RCR, Newman has finished 7th, 8th, 13th and 10th.  In those four races he has a collective +23 position difference.  Going back further, he's finished in the Top 10 here in 10 of the last 13 races.  Very affordable at $7,000 on DK.  My only concern in a cash game here is that they could gamble on fuel since they have no chance at the playoffs without a Hail Mary win.
• Austin Dillon -- Sticking with RCR, Dillon has finished 4th, 12th, 22nd and 11th in his four Cup Series races here.  He is a collective +25 position difference in those races.  Even cheaper then Newman at $6,600 DK.
• Kyle Larson -- He's been fine here.  Last year, he started 4th, finished 14th and led 124 laps.  Before that, he had 3 straight Top 10 finishes with very strong position difference.  But he seems overpriced at $12,100 DK -- which is more then Harvick and Truex.  Will probably end up too expensive to justify in cash games.
• Brad Keselowski -- As shown above, he's been in the Dominator picture in 2 of the last 3 races here.  That said, he really hasn't had great finishes.  Last year, he started 6th, finished 15th, with only 3 laps led.  In 2016, even though he led some laps and ran a good number of fastest laps, he finished 9th with a -7 position difference.  He is priced down a bit at $9,300 DK, though, so he's on the radar.
• Ty Dillon -- 2017 was his only Cup Series race here and he started 25th and finished 13th.  Pretty impressive, but DK price tag of $5,400 reflects the risky nature of using him.
• Chris Buescher -- Been in two Cup Series races here and finished 17th both times.  He was +10 position difference last year and +14 in 2016.  Decent price at $6,100 DK.
• Clint Bowyer and Aric Almirola -- Neither has a great history at Martinsville, but both are with SHR and are having great years and they seem under priced at $8,900 DK and $8,100 DK, respectively.
  

That's it for now.  We'll have some Xfinity notes on Friday night to help you set lineups for that race on Saturday.  Our final Cup Series update will be on Saturday night after all practice and qualifying is complete.

Saturday AM Update:  Looking back at last year, 11 was the most laps led and 7 was the most fastest laps.  That added up to a grand total of 6.25 DK points.  In 2016, it was 24 laps led and 15 fastest laps for 13.5 DK points.  In 2015, it was 23 laps led and 14 fastest laps for 12.75 DK points.  So, again, you do not need a Dominator to win this week.  You want solid guys (and maybe a gal) from top to bottom with a good outlook on finishing position and positive position difference.

Nothing much changes to my initial list after Friday practice.  I still like them to varying degrees.  I feel real good about Allgaier and Gaughan.  I also feel pretty secure in using Conor Daly in any format.  He ran a lot of laps in final practice and put on new tires near the end of the practice and ran a really strong lap.  He also got shafted by his sponsor, so may have some additional motivation to put on a good showing in the race.

I will add Justin Marks, Austin Cindric and JD Davison to the watch list.  They all had real good speed and are with strong teams.  Will all depend where they qualify.  Finally, add Katherine Legge as a cheaper option at $6,000.  She was running well at Mid Ohio until she had a motor issue.  She was running pretty well in practice today too until Tyler Reddick hit her.  There was some damage, but it didn't look like anything that would impact their race.  Depending on qualifying spot, she could provide strong value.

Some notes to help you build lineups for Saturday's Xfinity Series race at Road America.  The track is over 4 miles long, so it's only 45 laps that make up the 180 mile race.  Only 11.25 total points out there for laps led and 22.5 points for fastest laps.  Finishing position and position difference will be most important this week.

There's a chance for rain both Friday and Saturday with the greater chance looking like Friday.  The most likely scenario is a wet track Friday and dry track for the race Saturday.  That would really favor the series regulars who have done multiple road course races here and this year.  It would also really hurt guys like Bill Elliott, Conor Daly, etc. who need practice time in race conditions since they're not accustomed to these cars.

• I've pushed Justin Allgaier all year on road courses and I will again this week.  He doesn't usually qualify in the Top 5, but he tends to finish there.  Won the last road course race two weeks ago at Mid Ohio.  And finished 3rd (behind Logano and Allmendinger) the week before that at Watkins Glen.
• Cole Custer has three straight Top 8 finishes on road courses and I expect him in the Top 5 or so on Saturday.
• Daniel Hemric is generally solid at road courses.  In 5 road course races in the Xfinity series, he had 2 Top 5s another Top 10 and nothing worse than a 15th and 16th place finish.  Very high floor with race winning upside -- the perfect combination for a cash game pending his starting spot.
• Brendan Gaughan is just running a few races this year.  He finished 12th at Mid Ohio.  When he was a series regular the last two years, he finished in the Top 10 at all six road course races.  A relative bargain at the $8,700 salary.
• Matt Tifft at $8,500 also looks like a good value.  He's finished in the Top 5 in 3 of the last 4 road course races -- but the other finish was a 37th place disaster.
• Ryan Reed at $8,300 could be a good play as well.  He's finished 8th and 10th at the two road course races this year.  He tends to not qualify great, so that helps limit his downside and increase his upside for us.
• Brandon Jones is with a great team and has a great salary at $8,100.  But his results have not been so great at the road courses.  He comes into play for me if he qualifies poorly so I wanted to include him in the list.
• Andy Lally is a very solid road course specialist.  He finished 15th at Mid Ohio this year.  In the last two seasons, he finished 7th and 5th in races at Mid Ohio.  Definitely in play if he does not qualify in the Top 10.
• Conor Daly is a very good driver doing some races in the IndyCar series this year.  He has a lot of road course experience, but little experience in a stock car.  Probably a tournament only play, but could creep into the cash game picture if he gets some decent practice time on Friday and if he doesn't qualify too well.
• Michael Annett is your classic cash game guy.  He qualifies like crap but tends to run pretty well in these road course races.   He's finished 17th (+8 position difference) and 18th (+6 position difference) in the two road course races this season.
• Alex Labbe is a rookie in the series, but has finished 19th and 9th with a total +6 position difference in the two road course races this year.  At $6,600, he's a great cheaper option provided he doesn't qualify too well.
• Other even cheaper options on the radar:  David Starr, Ryan Ellis, Spencer Boyd and Chad Finchum.
• Just to cover the topic, I really don't have any interest in Bill Elliott.  It's a great story I guess, but he's been out of the sport for too long.  And he's priced high enough that there are very likely to be several better options at or below his salary.

GL on Saturday.  Depending on what happens in practice on Friday, I may post a brief update Friday night/Saturday morning.

Have to be brief this week.  500 laps, so you need the dominators as we talked about all week.

• I think the best dominator plan is to grab both Kyles just like the Xfinity race.  Between the two, I think they rack up over half the laps led and fastest lap points.  I expect them both to be very heavily owned in all formats (cash games in particular), so fade them at your own risk.  That said, I do think it's a good strategy to fade one of them in lineups entered in large tournaments.
• Ryan Newman should be a staple in cash games and is a good play in any format.  Good history here, starting 24th with position difference upside, showed good speed in practice and cheap at $6,600.
• After that it's a bit of a crap shoot.  There's several guys in the $7k-$8k range that I'll list in my order of interest -- Eric Jones (2nd in 10 lap, 15 lap and total average speed in final practice), Alex Bowman, Rickey Stenhouse and Ryan Blaney.
• In the $5k-$6k range, my targets are -- Matt DiBenedetto, Trevor Bayne, Bubba Wallace and Michael McDowell.  I view them all about equally.  Bayne does scare me to an extent, but he does have very good finishes here in the last two years, which we profiled earlier this week.  I don't love any of the other three either, but they're starting far enough back to have little downside and some decent position difference potential if they survive the inevitable crashes and just have decent speed.

Harder to do a full write-up on the Xfinity side this week because practice was not televised and, as usual, we won't know the starting order until a few hours before the race.  So I'm doing more of a shortened notes version that you can use to finish lineups after qualifying.

• I think you want both Kyles -- Larson and Busch.  In the last four races when there were several Cup regulars in there, these guys have dominated.  With all the laps led and fastest lap points out there this week -- 225 points in all -- you really need those dominators in your lineup (even cash games) this week.
  • In August 2017, Busch was in the race (Larson was not) and led 186 laps with 98 fastest laps.
  • In April 2017, Larson was in the race (Busch was not) and led 180 laps with 56 fastest laps.
  • In August 2016, both were in the race and they combined to lead 201 laps with 114 fastest laps.
  • In April 2016, both were in the race and they combined to lead 137 laps with 86 fastest laps.
• I'd be worried about trying to pick one Kyle because if you pick wrong and the other one goes off, that alone could sink your whole lineup.  And I think there's enough value plays (if they qualify where we want them to) to allow it to work.
• For argument sake, the other strategy would be to pick one Kyle and hope you pick right or that they split dominator points and you hit position difference with your other drivers.  This could work well if several Cup guys or good Xfin guys start further back.  At that point, picking one Kyle (probably Larson because he's cheaper and actually done better then KB in the races they both were in) and going for position difference in other slots might make sense.  One guy I would be really excited about if he qualifies poorly is Elliott Sadler.  He has four straight Top 5 finishes here and he would likely throw up a big number if he starts further back.  Justin Allgaier is another.
• Any way you go, you'll need a few value plays.  Here are the ones I am most interested in (favorites in bold, assuming favorable starting position):
  • Josh Williams $5,000 -- He's run Bristol two times in the #90 car.  In both races, he started 32nd and finished 22nd.  Not bad at a near minimum salary.  Below this salary, I can't really recommend anyone.  The best I could say is that it's unlikely McLeod or Currey do a start and park, so you could take a wild swing at either of them if you need to save a few hundred bucks to get someone else you want.
  • Chad Finchum $5,300 -- Should qualify near the back and we know this is not a start and park team like some others in this price range.
  • Alex Labbe $5,700 -- Only race here was in April, when he started 16th and finished 11th.  He has finished in the Top 20 in 4 of the last 6 races, including a season high 9th place last week at Mid Ohio.  Obviously there's no carryover from a road course, but it shows this team (despite being smaller and under funded) has some decent speed and momentum.
  • David Starr $5,800, Spencer Boyd $6,000, Joey Gase $6,300, Jeremy Clements $6,500 and Garrett Smithley $6,700 all could provide decent value depending on starting position.  I would avoid Vinnie Miller in this price range.
  • Brandon Jones $8,300 -- Under priced for a guy in JGR equipment.  And Jones is pretty good here.  He started and finished 6th, and led 106 laps, in the April race -- note there were no Cup guys in that race.
  • Everyone including and above Ross Chastain at $7,500 could provide value depending on starting position.  I would be weary of Ryan Reed though.  He's had incidents and finished 35th or worse in 3 of the last 4 Bristol races.

GL!  Hopefully we can make a few bucks Friday night to help fund Saturday night NASCAR and football.

500 dizzying laps are on tap for Saturday night.  That means 250 fastest lap and 125 laps led points are out there on DK.  We'll need one Dominator at least to make our lineup work this week.  Here's my initial target list heading into practice and qualifying on Friday:

• Kyle Busch -- He's won the last two races here and led 273 of the 1000 laps run in those races.  BUT, in the five races before that, he finished 35th, 39th, 38th, 8th and 36th.  So he has finished 35th or worse in 4 of the last 7 races here.
• Kyle Larson -- In April, he started 6th, finished 2nd and led 200 laps.  He's finished in the Top 10 in the last 3 races here and led a total of 472 of the 1500 laps run in those races.
• Kevin Harvick -- He has 6 straight Top 10 finishes here, including one win.  In those 6 races, he's led 155 of 3000+ laps run.
• Ryan Blaney -- In the April race, Blaney started 5th and led 100 of the first 117 laps in very dominating fashion.  He got caught up in a wreck that he had no role in creating ending his day early.  He looked great early in April, but doesn't otherwise have a great record here.
• Eric Jones -- In April, Jones had a pretty rough day and finished 26th.  But, in the night race last August, he started from pole, finished 2nd and led 260 of 500 laps.  He got tangled up in a few incidents last week, but has otherwise been running very well of late.
• Alex Bowman -- He started 8th and finished 5th here in April -- in his only race here with Team Hendrick.  $7,200 DK.
• Jimmie Johnson -- Staying with Team Hendrick, Jimmie started 17th and finished 3rd in April.  He continues to be very strong here, finishing in the Top 10 in 6 of the last 8 races.
• Clint Bowyer -- Started 14th, finished 8th in April.  In his three races here with SHR, he has two Top 10 finishes.
• Joey Logano -- Started 10th, finished 9th in April.  He's finished in the Top 10 in 5 of the last 6 races here and won the night races in both 2014 and 2015.  I am concerned, however, that crew chief Todd Gordon seems to continually make mistakes to slow down this team on a near weekly basis.
• Ryan Newman -- Started 30th, finished 10th in April.  He's finished in the Top 15 in 7 of the last 8 races here -- including 5 Top 10 finishes in that time.  Mispriced at $6,600 DK.
• Rickey Stenhouse -- Started and finished 4th in April.  He's finished in the Top 10 in 3 of the last 4 races here.  In 11 career Cup series races here, he has 6 Top 10 finishes and has only one finish (a 21st place finish) outside the Top 20.  Mispriced at $7,800 DK.
• Trevor Bayne -- It wasn't pretty, but he started 33rd and finished 24th in April.  In 2017, he finished 7th and 11th here and in 2016 he finished 12th and 5th.  So it is still a solid record of late.  Only $5,900 DK.
• Austin Dillon -- Finished in the Top 15 in 3 of the last 4 races here.  He's been showing improved speed overall of late.  $7,000 DK.
• Aric Almirola -- Started 19th, finished 6th in April in his first race here with SHR.
• David Ragan -- In three starts here with the Front Row team, he's finished 12th, 17th and 23rd with a collective +21 position difference.  Only $5,500 DK.
• Matt DiBennedetto -- In three starts here with the 32 team, he's finished 21st, 26th and 19th with a collective +24 position difference.  Only $5,300 DK.

And now two big names that have struggled here and look like large tournament options only:

• Martin Truex -- Only one Top 10 finish in the last 12 races here.  In the last 10 races here, he has only one finish better than 20th.  And in those 10 races, he's led a total of only 118 of 5000+ laps run.
• Brad Keselowski -- In the last 5 races here, he's finished 23rd, 29th, 34th, 33rd and 18th.  In 17 career Cup series races here, he has only 5 Top 10 finishes with 2 wins -- the most recent of which was in 2012.

Sunday Morning Update:  I'm getting a sense that ownership of Harvick/Busch is going to be pretty low in cash games this week with people focusing instead on the guys starting further back -- Larson and Elliott in particular.  It's totally legitimate to go that way and fade the two studs if you want to be a bit more conservative about it.  That is one of the questions that makes this slate a little tricky.  Between those two, Larson looked better in practice.  About mid way through the last practice, he jumped into the Top 5 in single lap speed and he ended up 3rd in 10 lap average in final practice.  Elliott was 18th in single lap speed and did not run 10 consecutive laps.  I also like Bowyer in that range.  He will probably be a bit lower owned then Larson and Elliott.  Bowyer 8th in single lap speed and 7th in 10 lap average in final practice.

Got to admit that I struggled a bit in formulating the plan for a cash game lineup this week.  There are some good options up and down the lineup and at various salaries.  I think we'll see a lot of variety in line ups this week, which I think is generally a good thing for us.  Other than Suarez, I don't think there are any locks for a cash game lineup.  That being said, here's how I'm going about it on DK:

• Start with Suarez.  No reason at all to overthink that one starting 40th at his salary.
• Decide what to do with Harvick and Kyle Busch.  There's no realistic way to take them both.  So pick one or decide to fade them both and go with a more balanced approach with guys starting 10th-25th.  I think using Harvick is the best play.  I think he's most likely to score the most points and I also think he'll be highly owned.  Despite his salary, I would be really worried going into a cash game without him because if he dominates and is heavily owned, you're probably sunk no matter who else you have.
• Grab one (or two/three if you fade Harvick and Busch) of this trio of good drivers starting mid pack -- Larson, Bowyer and Elliott.  All things considered, I like Bowyer, Larson then Elliott.  Larson might have a slight edge in points potential, but he's almost $1K more than Bowyer.  For the price, I lean Bowyer.  Elliott starts furthest back and seemed off in practice.  He spun in final practice and just didn't seem to have great speed.  I am concerned he'll be highly owned, but we can't have everybody.
• Grab one of Blaney or Jones.  Jones had the best 10 lap average in both practices on Saturday.  Steve Letarte singled him out and wondered if he was the favorite.  He clearly has a Top 5 car so, while there's risk since he's starting 4th, I'm probably willing to take it with the upside he offers.  Blaney was second fastest in 10 lap average in the final practice.  He looks like he probably has a Top 5 car as well, but maybe a notch below Jones -- and he's $700 more than Jones.
• Look at Byron or Bowman.  These guys had the best speed from the Hendrick camp.  Bowman is running really well right now, so I would say a solid Top 12 finish is in order.  Byron starts 20th and you'd hope he could move into the Top 15 or so.  Bowman is $200 cheaper and that might be a determining factor.
• For salary savings, look at Bayne and Ty Dillon.  I highlighted Dillon's Michigan record earlier this week and Bayne looked pretty good in final practice all things considered.  Neither is really reliable, but we have some real bottom feeders at the back of the field this week, so if these guys can just finish the race, they're pretty likely to finish no worse than they started, which should pay off their low salaries.  I normally like Ross Chastain in this role too, but he's only $100 below Dillon and $200 below Bayne.  More importantly, he hasn't run a lap here this week because he's been in Ohio running his full time Xfinity ride there.  He'll start from the rear with no hot laps in the car.  That worries me quite a bit.

I think the same general approach works on FD.  Although, I might be more willing to fade Harvick and Busch there since laps led/fastest laps are less important as compared to DK.  If you do fade them and start with Suarez, you can take four very high quality drivers starting 4th-20th or so.  All the names above would be in play for those spots and you should have enough salary to pick whoever you want from those we listed.

On the GPP side, I think Hamlin, Kurt Busch and Aric Almirola are three good options that should come in at reasonable ownership levels.  I also really like Blaney and Jones in that format.

​GL!

I love this track for IndyCar but it's a little weird watching the Xfinity cars here.  Hard to handicap this one a bit because final practice was largely washed out due to rain.  No rain is expected for the race.  Only 75 laps, so not a ton of laps led and fastest lap points out there.  But also tough to pass, so can't go all in on position difference either.

Sam Hornish won this race last year in the 22 car for Penske.  Austin Cindric is in that car this week.  He always seems to have a problem at some point in every race.  Possible GPP play, but I don't love him in a cash game set-up unless he starts 10th or worse.  Last year was a bit of an odd race too.  Several late crashes led to a total of 16 cars being out at the end of the race.  Guys like Justin Allgaier, Cole Custer and Ryan Reed were all out.  Almost turned into a plate track with guys from the back finishing in the Top 20.  That was a bit of an outlier and I wouldn't expect anything that extreme again this year.

Here's a real short bullet point list of the drivers I will be focusing on in my lineups.  Of course if other series regulars start way back, jump on them as well.  I won't have time to update after qualifying:

• Justin Allgaier -- Probably the best road course racer among the series regulars.  I'm interested no matter where he starts.
• Cole Custer -- Crashed in this race last year, but 8th (Road America) and 6th (Watkins Glen) in the two road course races since then.
• Daniel Hemric -- 2nd last year at this track and has a solid road course record.
• Justin Marks -- The first of three Mid Ohio specialists.  He won here in the 42 car in 2016, leading 43 laps.  Finished 9th here last year with +12 position difference.  In the 42 again this weekend.
• Brandon Jones -- Solid road course history and finished 7th last week with +13 position difference in first road course race for top team JGR.
• Brandon Gaughan -- Another Mid Ohio specialist.  Running somewhat questionable equipment, but finished 7th and 8th the last two races here.
• Ryan Reed -- Pretty reliable road course guy.  8th last week at Watkins Glen.
• Andy Lally -- Third of the Mid Ohio specialists.  Finished 5th and 7th last two races here.
• Michael Annett -- Not a great driver, but with a top team and reasonably priced.  He tends to have his best finishes at road courses as well.  Was 17th last week.  Finished 19th with +11 position difference in this race last year.
  
• Ryan Sieg -- Cheaper option with decent road course finishes.  Finished 12th here last year.
  
• Alex Labbe -- Cheap.  Finished 19th last week at Watkins Glen.
  
• Joey Gase -- Cheap and does decent at road courses despite qualifying poorly.  Finished 21st with +18 position difference last race here.

​GL!

Back to more of a normal schedule this week with one practice and qualifying on Friday, two practices on Saturday and the race on Sunday.  So we shouldn't have any race day inspection issues like we did with Watkins Glen.

200 laps at Michigan, so we've got 100 fastest lap points and 50 laps led points in play on DK.  In the last few Michigan races, we've seen the top "Dominator" lead about half the laps and get a similar number of fastest laps.  So there will be more focus on the potential dominators this week.

Here's an initial list of guys I'm most focused on heading into Friday.  It's a longer list then I'd like to start from for two reasons.  First, I think we've got a bit of a deeper field at the top.  In other words, I don't see the Big Three as far out in front of the field as we saw at other tracks.  I can see a race Dominator coming from somewhere other than that group of three.  Maybe that changes with practice and qualifying -- we'll see.  Second, there's a pretty deep group of mid- to low- priced salary saver type guys.  More of them are in play then normal.  We'll be able to chop down this list as the weekend goes along and we see practice speeds and starting spots, etc.  So here they are:

• Chase Elliott -- Coming off his first Cup series win, he heads to his best track.  Five Top 10 finishes in five Cup series races at Michigan with three 2nd place finishes.  Started 13th and finished 9th in June at a time when the Chevrolet teams were really struggling.
• Kyle Larson -- Finished 28th in June, but won the prior three Michigan races.
• Kevin Harvick -- Arguably had the best car as the June race progressed, but got beat by Clint Bowyer on a pit strategy call in a rain shortened race.  Will certainly be on the prowl this weekend.  SHR cars dominated the June race.  They finished 1st (Bowyer), 2nd (Harvick), 3rd (Kurt Busch) and 11th (Almirola).
• Jamie McMurray -- Surprisingly, he has five straight Top 10 finishes here.  Might be a good value at $7,600 DK and $8,000 FD depending on starting spot.
• Kurt Busch -- Started from pole, led 46 laps and finished 3rd in the June race.  As mentioned, SHR was awesome here in June.  Prior to the June race, Kurt had been remarkably consistent, finishing 10th, 12th, 12th and 11th in the prior four Michigan races.
• Joey Logano -- Finished 7th in June.  Finished in the Top 10 four of the last five races at Michigan, including a win in June 2016 where he led 138 laps for the most dominant performance we've seen here in the last five races.
• Eric Jones -- Carrying a ton of speed right now.  Finished 15th here in June -- but also has a 3rd place finish here last August.  I think he remains under priced at $8K DK.  Less of a bargain at $9,400 FD.
• Martin Truex -- Been a tough track lately with only two Top 10 finishes in the last five races here.  In June, he started 17th and fell back to 18th without ever really moving forward.  Before that he finished 2nd with 57 laps led and 6th with 62 laps led, so he's still one to watch for sure.  Has never won at this 2-mile track, but did get his first win at a 2-mile track at California Auto Club earlier this season.
• Kyle Busch -- Started 3rd and finished 4th as the best non-SHR car in June.  Has three straight Top 10 finishes here, but he's not been a dominator here recently.  His best performance in the last five races is a 7th place finish with 40 laps led last year in June.  In June 2016, he blew an engine and finished 40th.
• William Byron -- Finished 13th here in June and the Hendrick camp seems to have some improved speed lately.  Under priced at $6,800 DK and $7,700 FD.
• Clint Bowyer -- Didn't have the best car in June, but won the rain shortened race due to a 2-tire pit call and a great restart to hold off Harvick.  Did I mention how good the SHR cars looked in June?
• Aric Almirola -- SHR
• Ryan Newman -- Finished 22nd in June, but that was his first finish outside the Top 20 here in 15 races!  Steady point grabber at a very reasonable salary.
• AJ Allmendinger -- Seems odd to include him the week after Watkins Glen, right?  But he has four straight Top 20 finishes here with a cumulative +34 position difference in those four races.  Pretty solid at $6,300 DK and $7,100 FD.
• Ty Dillon -- Wait, what?  Yes, Ty Dillon.  In his three races here in the 13 car, he's finished 20th, 21st and 21st with a collective +39 position difference in those three races.  Will take that all day at $5,700 DK and $5, 500 FD.
• Bubba Wallace -- Another possible salary saver at $6,400 DK and $6,500 FD.  In his two Cup series races here, he's finished 19th both times with a +7 and +9 position difference.
• Alex Bowman -- Started 21st and finished 15th here in June.  Again, very under priced for a Hendrick car at $6,600 DK.

I'll have some Xfinity notes on Friday night and a full/final Cup update Saturday night.

BEWARE that NASCAR is doing inspection on Sunday morning, so starting positions might still change.  But I don't expect the total chaos we saw last week with about 15 cars failing inspection.  Track position is too important and I suspect the teams got their act together after last week.  Maybe a few cars fail, but nothing like last week.  Based on the current grid, these are my targets listed by order of preference within each tier (I'm focusing on DK here, but FD specific notes are at the bottom):

$10K +

• Kyle Busch -- Finished Top 8 in ten of the last eleven races here and usually leads laps
• Martin Truex -- Won the last two road course races -- started 3rd, led 24 laps and won here last Summer
• Denny Hamlin -- Has become a very strong road course racer -- won here in 2016 and finished 4th last year

$7K - $10K

• Clint Bowyer -- Excellent road course racer -- finished Top 6 in four of the last five races with a quality team (even finished 18th with sub-par H Scott Motorsports in 2016)
• Kurt Busch -- Finished Top 10 in four of the last five races here and is a collective +33 position difference in those races
• Brad Keselowski -- Led 20, 28 and 27 laps in the last three races here despite starting 8th, 12th and 11th
• AJ Allmendinger -- This is easily his best track and the road course where he really excels (instead of Sonoma).  Won here in 2014 and finished Top 10 in six of the last seven here
• Daniel Suarez -- Started 5th, led 14 laps and finished 3rd last year -- plus all JGR Toyotas looked awesome on Saturday
• Jamie McMurray -- Pretty solid road course record of late with finishes in the 8-15 range.

Under $7K

• Eric Jones -- Started 6th, finished 10th last year -- as mentioned above, the JGR Toyotas looked awesome on Saturday -- had a strong 7th place run with +13 position difference at Sonoma earlier this year --  severely mispriced at $6,700
• Chris Buescher -- Since joining JTG and becoming AJ Allmendinger's teammate, he has three straight Top 20 finishes at the road courses.  11th here last year, 12th at Sonoma earlier this year and 19th at Sonoma last year.
• Michael McDowell -- Has finished 12th and 17th the last two races here from a similar starting spot.  A bit of a risk though because (unlike most of my other targets) there's almost no position difference upside and a fair bit of downside if he has a mechanical issue of gets caught in something.

Lineup Construction Notes

• This is a week when you can succeed without having a Dominator.  In the last three races here, the driver scoring the most extra points for laps led and fastest laps had 18, 15.5 and 12.25 extra points.  With the few laps (90) and numerous different leaders based on pit strategy, etc. there really isn't any reason to pay up for guys starting up front at the traditional Dominator spots if there is value in the middle of the field.
• Another reason not to pay up for an expected Dominator is that the bottom "salary saver" guys here are really rough.  I really don't want to have anything to do with guys under Buescher/McDowell.
• With that in mind, I think a good option in cash games is to take Jones and five of the guys in the $7-10K bracket.  I think that gives you plenty of positive position difference points and solid finishing positions in all six lineup spots.  Plus, guys like Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Keselowski and Allmendinger all offer some hope of grabbing a few laps led and fastest lap points as well.  I much prefer that set-up over including one of the $10K plus guys and then having to grab a bottom feeder to fit under the salary cap.

FanDuel

• Strategy is much the same on FD.  Jones is not as badly mispriced, but is still a fine value.  You can easily build rosters using various combinations from the $7-10K list above while mixing in one guy from the top or cheap tier.

I'll do a final Cup Series update on Saturday night.  Today I want to post a few Xfinity Series notes.  It won't be as specific or complete as I'd like because practice was essentially a rain out.  Only a few cars actually took time and none ran actual race speed laps due to rain and a wet track.  No rain is expected for the race, so nothing from practice will carry over to the race.  Plus we won't know the starting order until shortly before the race.  But I do want to give you a few guidelines and general driver targets to help you navigate the time crunch and set those lineups between qualifying and race time.

• The race is only 82 laps.  So only 20.5 points available for laps led and 41 points available for fastest laps.  Position difference and raw finishing position will be more important this week.
  

There are six Cup guys running this race.  Here is how I would rank them:

• Joey Logano has the best history at The Glen.  He's started from pole the last three races and won two of them.  He finished 2nd in the other race during that time.  He's expensive, but probably worth it.
  
• AJ Allmendinger is running in the 23 car.  It's a good, but not top tier, team.  He hasn't run at Watkins Glen in an Xfinity car, but he did dominate the last Xfinity road course race he was in back in 2013 at Mid Ohio.  With his road course talent and somewhat reduced salary, I'll rank him second.
  
• Brad Keselowski overall has a very good history at The Glen.  But he hasn't dominated Xfinity races there like one would expect.  He hasn't won there since five years ago and had a very bad run two years ago.  Of the most expensive guys, Logano has the edge.  I do really like Brad here, but I'm concerned about his salary and performance in the most recent races.
  
• Kyle Larson is running in the 42 for Chip Ganassi.  Loads of talent there, obviously, but he's had very little Xfinity success here.  No wins and the last race he blew an engine so finished 40th after starting 3rd.  Can use in tournaments, but probably an avoid in cash games at this salary.
  
• Aric Almirola is running in the 98, which is also a decent team.  Almirola doesn't have a real good road course history, so he's not a must have by any means.  At the salary, I'd probably stay away unless he starts further back.
  
• Austin Dillon much the same story here.  Not a good road course background and I'm only interested if he's starting further back.
  

Here are the Xfinity Series regulars I'm most interested in:

• Ross Chastain has been pretty reliable in road course races finishing most of the recent races in the mid-teens.  19th, 14th and 17th in the last three at WG.
  
• Justin Allgaier has been really strong, but a notch below guys like Logano and Allmendinger.  So there's probably no way to fit his salary with the other two.
  
• Daniel Hemric is a pretty strong and consistent option.  11th at WG last year, but ran 2nd at the Mid Ohio road course last year too.
  
• Joey Gase is a decent cheap option because he usually races OK and there's no risk of a start and park situation.
  
• JJ Yeley would be another salary saving option if you can confirm the team is going to try to run the whole race.  They are an occasional start and park team. 
  
• Ryan Sieg, Jeremy Clements and David Starr are all guys who attempt to run full races.  None are going to get spectacular results, but they should be good for a few positions gained and you know they will try to run a full race.
  
• There are a number of one off guys doing this race who don't normally race in the Series.  They worry me especially since there will be no practice before the race.  Expect problems from them on pit road and otherwise.  I'm generally planning to avoid except possibly in tournaments.
  
• Lastly, on Christopher Bell.  I love the guy, have been pushing him really hard the last few weeks and winning a lot of money with him.  But he's got a dirt track background and very little road course experience.  This is his first race at The Glen.  I'm sure he's been living in a simulator trying to get ready for this, but the lack of practice really has me off him this weekend.  I just don't think it makes sense to spend up for him in a situation like this.