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kansas xfinity

10/23/2021

2 Comments

My DFS notes--

Really like Austin Cindric and Daniel Hemric again. As documented last week, this is the best type of track for both of them. Top 5s all season long to go with some laps led and fastest laps. Hemric is on pole and likely leads early. Don't understand why he is sub-$10k. Both need great runs to set themselves up to make the championship race.
Ty Gibbs is the big question mark here and will determine how the rest of your lineup can go. He's probably too expensive unless he leads laps or runs fastest laps. He certainly has the potential to do that since this #54 car has been the best car most weeks. I'm inclined to go with him here since this car has just been so good and it's a very realistic scenario for him to put up a huge score. And, while there are some good mid-range position difference plays to use salary on, I don't fully trust many of them. This is the Xfinity Series after all, so all of the obvious position difference plays come with question marks with the quality of car, quality of driver, or both. So I'm inclined to spend up for the best car in the field with a talented driver instead of just hoping to avoid the mid-range landmines.
On to those mid-range position difference plays--
- Landon Cassill -- Best bet to deliver a Top 20. Reliable driver, but had an equipment failure last week. Usually the cars are OK for this team, so I'm not too worried about that.
- Brandon Brown -- Best upside, but risky.
- Garrett Smithley -- This team has had all sorts of issues lately. JJ Yeley's car completely crapped out last week. Driver is fine. Car is a big question mark.
- Jade Buford -- Not the best at 1.5 mile tracks.
- Bayley Currey -- Should finish in the Top 20.
- Gray Gaulding -- Repeating what I said last week - trust the driver, don't trust the car.
Punts--
- David Starr -- Was running with decent speed until they lost a motor last week.
- Spencer Boyd -- Too cheap. Should gain a few spots at least.

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Texas Cup

10/16/2021

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Kicked some ass in the Xfinity race. Here are some Cup notes. I'm in the Final 8 in the playoffs in one of my season long leagues, so I can't be quite as open as I otherwise would be--

Got to play Larson I think. Been the best at the 1.5 mile tracks all year long. At least 95 laps led and 43 fastest laps in every race at a comparable track this season.
Really like Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney too. One of these guys probably leads for a while and it will probably depend on pit stops and who gets the best restarts. Hard to really separate them. Denny racked up a lot of laps led in the last 1.5 mile track race at Vegas, but how much of that was due to Hendrick's f'ed up strategy that the whole company went in on? Kyle and Ryan have consistently been fast and in the Top 5 at these lower tire wear tracks.
Stenhouse and Newman are solid position difference plays. Wish they were a little cheaper, but they're doable.
Don't hate Alfredo as a punt. He's finished between 23rd and 27th at all seven 1.5 mile track races this season.
If you have specific questions, you can DM me on Twitter @dfsnascarguy and I'll try to answer in time for lineup lock.

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texas xfinity

10/16/2021

3 Comments

A couple of quick notes for you--

Austin Cindric and Daniel Hemric are underpriced. At comparable 1.5 mile tracks this year, they have both finished every race inside the Top 5 and led laps or run fastest laps or both. Both are as safe as anyone to rack up 45 points and both also have the potential to dominate and put up a really big score.
I like A.J. Allmendinger and Justin Allgaier as well. There is a good deal of risk with AJ starting up front because they don't always hit the setup right. Allgaier was great at Texas earlier this year and also at the last 1.5 mile track at Las Vegas.
I just don't like to use Noah Gragson in cash games unless he has a lot of position difference upside because he's too aggressive and takes too many chances. I could see some using him here since he's run well on this track type this year and is a potential dominator.
Kaz Grala might be too expensive. Finishing 12th-15th or so seems a reasonable upside, but he's unlikely to add any laps led or fastest laps. This car/team has had some reliability issues and Grala doesn't have a lot of recent experience at 1.5 mile tracks. Fading him doesn't scare me at that price.
Bayley Currey and David Starr would be my top two punts. Tommy Joe Martins if you want to be more aggressive.
Brett Moffitt, Riley Herbst, J.J. Yeley and Ryan Vargas also in play.
Brandon Brown and Ryan Sieg are tempting but I'm always worried they'll try some goofy pit strategy and wreck themselves.
Put any questions in the comments and I'll try to respond in time.

3 Comments

As I worked through lineup combinations, I found myself leaving some salary on the table. We normally would never do that outside a superspeedway, but I think it's just fine to leave up to $1k on the table for Saturday.

Ty Gibbs, A.J. Allmendinger and Austin Cindric -- It all starts with these three studs. I'd be really surprised if anyone else wins this race. These guys have combined to win four of the six road course races in the Xfinity Series and Kyle Busch (who's not running Xfinity this weekend) won the other two. Most lineups will start with two (and perhaps all) of these guys.
- Gibbs - The #54 car has won four of the six road course races this year, so it's really hard to pass up Gibbs with his race winning upside and position difference upside from the 12th starting spot. He was truly incredible at the Daytona road course which is the closest comp to the Roval.
- Allmendinger - We know he's awesome at any road course. He's won the last two Xfinity races here, although I wouldn't put too much stock in last year's result because the race was run in a driving rainstorm and was completely ridiculous. Like Gibbs, he has race winning upside and position difference upside from the 14th starting spot.
- Cindric - Starts 1st and should lead for a while early on as Gibbs and Allmendinger work their way up. It could help him that there is no scheduled competition caution in the 20 lap first stage. The one concern is that he has no position difference upside and will really need things to go nearly perfect to overcome that built in 10+ point advantage that Gibbs and Allmendinger have.
Don't like the cheap sub-$6k plays. The only one I'd use is Kris Wright. He's in the #15 car for J.D. Motorsports, but this is actually a Sam Hunt Racing prepared Toyota. He's run these in the earlier road course races and has two Top 20 finishes. He's run into some bad luck and probably should have some better results as well. Borderline Top 20 upside and extremely safe floor starting 38th.
Other mid-tier plays in rough ranking order--
- Austin Hill - Starts 40th. Top 20 upside. Reasonable price. In a better Hattori car, not the typical MBM #61 car.
- Landon Cassill - Solid driver and car. Four Top 20 finishes in the six road course races this year. Not as much upside as some others, but a pretty safe overall package here with +10 position difference a good bet. Cheap.
- Preston Pardus - Has run a lot of road courses for this team. Top 20 upside for sure. More upside then Cassill, but more risk as well.
- Sage Karam and Will Rodgers -- Similar profiles. Road course backgrounds but somewhat limited Xfinity Series experience.
- Gray Gaulding - Really like the driver, but don't really trust the Mike Harmon car.
- Josh Bilicki - Very surprised he hasn't had better results running the 07/17 cars at road courses this year. Road course ringer.

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talladega cup

10/2/2021

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See the Trucks/Xfinity post below for general comments. No need to go higher than 25th starting spot for cash games. Also would avoid Rick Ware cars and David Starr due the speed/reliability concerns. Driver pool in rough order of preference--

Justin Haley
Landon Cassill
Justin Allgaier
Corey LaJoie
Ryan Preece
B.J. McLeod
Erik Jones
Ryan Newman
Cole Custer
Anthony Alfredo
Quin Houff

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