I don't know if this will end up being a very popular idea, but my approach for Sunday's race is pretty cut and dried for me.  I'm again expecting a lot of chaos and crazy stuff.  We've seen it in practice throughout the weekend and we saw it last year when this race had 8 cautions -- 6 real cautions (1 debris and 5 incidents) plus the two stage breaks.  The cautions and restarts breed more of the same.  And it allows for differing strategies and guys being able to move up or down the running order based on luck and good timing.  Given all this, I'm playing a very conservative lineup with a couple cheap punts and a solid core of good road course guys starting mid pack.  Here's who I'm focused on:

• The punts are pretty obvious I think:
  • Klingerman starting dead last at a near minimum salary seems like a must play.  He's finished between 23rd and 26th in three of the four road course races he's done over the past two seasons and that's what we'd be looking for here.  Anything in the 20s will work really well.
  • Tifft starting 36th works as well at only $5,700.  Again we'd be looking for any kind of finish in the 20s.  He's delivered 28th and 24th place finishes in the two road course races earlier this year, so he's capable of getting what we need.
  • One note of caution -- both of these guys wrecked in practice, which is obviously not ideal.  Tifft in particular didn't even get to run in final practice because the team was still working to get the car race ready.  I'm ok with that as long as we don't hear anything in the morning that causes some concern about their ability to complete the race because the car couldn't be fully repaired.  I'm also ok with it because I don't like any of the other sub-$7k options at all.  The only possible play is David Ragan starting 27th.  He's finished between 16th-22nd in the last three road course races and that would work well here for a $5,600 salary.  But there's also a greater downside if he wrecks or falls back at all.  I lean Tifft for cash games because of a higher floor.  Fire up Ragan over Tifft in a tournament though or if you think you need a more aggressive cash lineup.
• Now for the cluster in the middle I'm looking at:
  • Hamlin (28th) -- Must start for me.  Top 5 finishes at both road course races so far this year.  In the last three years (7 races), he has four Top 5 finishes at the road courses and has not finished worse then 13th.  11th quick in final practice.  Very high floor and top score upside.
  • Kurt Busch (23rd) -- Love this play as well.  In the last three years (7 races), he has six Top 10 finishes at the road courses and also has not finished worse then 13th.  9th quick in final practice.  
  • Chase Elliott (19th) -- Five Top 8 finishes in the last seven road course races.  He was also the fastest car in final practice and he ran the most laps of anyone in the practice.  Was in the Top 8 in all three practice sessions this weekend.
  • Eric Jones (15th) -- Top 10 finish in five of the last six road course races.  He's finished 8th and 4th in the two road course races this season.
  • Kyle Busch (17th) -- Probably the 2nd most talented road course guy in the series behind Truex.  Four Top 5 finishes in the last seven road course races.  He got caught up in the crazy restart wreck last year at the Roval and finished 32nd.  Was not very high on the speed charts in any practice this weekend, but I'm not overly worried about that.  Might be too expensive to make everything fit together though.  (His profile this week is really close to Elliott and Jones but you can get Elliott for $1k less and Jones for almost $2k left.  Pay up for KB if you like the rest of your lineup with him in there or save if you want to beef up another spot on your roster.)
  • Matt DiBenedetto (18th) -- Started 19th and finished 4th at Sonoma and started 20th and finished 6th at Watkins Glen earlier this year.  I don't think he'll repeat at quite that level, but he's been hovering around the Top 10 for practice speeds and a 8th-10th place finish is an aggressive, but reasonable, projection.
• And now a guy with his own category -- Martin Truex (8th).  He'll start from the rear due to an engine change.  As I mentioned before, he's the best road course racer in the series.  Three wins and two 2nd place finishes in the last six road course races.  And he would have won this race last year if not for getting run over by Jimmie Johnson.  So let that sink in -- but for being taken out by Johnson here last year, he would have four wins and two 2nd place finishes in the last six road course races.  He's the best and it's not really close.  I don't think he's a cash game play because there's too much risk starting from the rear and it's unlikely he can lead many laps even if he were to win at the end.  But I'd definitely fire him up in tournaments.  I'd also throw down a +400 (last number I saw) bet for him to win the race if it's legal and appropriate for you to do so.

First off, I'm happy to back. Had to take a few weeks off because I simply have not had enough time to properly prepare for the last couple of races. I'm ready to get back at it and bring home a solid finish this season.  So let's get to it.

I'm expecting a pretty wild Xfinity race on Saturday. As we saw in all practices on Friday, there's not a lot of runoff room around the track so any off track adventures usually lead to heavy damage and could be race ending.  We've got 67 laps scheduled, so a pretty limited amount of laps led and fastest laps points are at stake.  We'd love to have someone score a few of those, but our main focus really has to be on raw finishing position and getting guys who will move up from their starting spot and not go backwards.

Based on recent road course performance and practice times from Friday, here is who I am most interested in heading into qualifying and the race on Saturday:

• Austin Cindric -- He's been the best road racer this year and I really don't get why his salary is under $10K.  2nd fastest in both practices and I really like that he did a longer 10 lap run in final practice.
  
• Justin Allgaier and Tyler Reddick -- This is really a salary thing here.  I'm thinking one of them will qualify a little further back then expected and will be a solid position difference play.  Reddick has been sneaky good at the road courses this year with finishes of 6th, 4th and 3rd.  He ran 6th and 4th in practice on Friday.  Allgaier was the man at road courses last year, but has fallen off a bit this year.  Still very solid and good choice if he qualifies outside the Top 10.  To be clear, I have no problem with Bell and Allmendinger but they might end up being too pricey for the type of return you get with only 67 laps being run.  If one of them starts further back then expected, then absolutely go up and grab them.  My main point is that you might be better off saving a bit unless some real good value opens up in qualifying.
  
• Chase Briscoe -- Rock solid road course guy and won here last year.
  
• Alex Labbe -- Always like this guy and love him on a road course.  Was Top 8 in both practice sessions. $7800 is a bit much though unless he has decent position difference upside.
• Will Rodgers -- Strong salary saver at $6,500.  6th in final practice.  Started 22nd and finished 12th at Mid Ohio earlier this year.
• JJ Yeley -- An extreme salary saver at $5,200.  He's in the #78 car for BJ McLeod's team.  This is NOT a start and park team. This is Vinnie Miller's normal team and their MO is to be a bit off the pace, take no chances and finish every race.  (Ignore his poor finishes at road courses earlier this year because all those were in the #38 car for RSS Racing which often does not even attempt to finish races.)  JJ is a veteran and accomplished road course racer.  He started in this #78 car last week at Richmond and went from 34th to a 21st place finish.  For $5,200, it's a free square unless he qualifies so well that it brings too much downside risk if something goes wrong.

This week I'm going to focus more on overall lineup strategy and how I see the race playing out as opposed to identifying specific drivers I'm targeting.  As you'll see from the article, so much depends on starting position and how you see the race playing out that it doesn't make sense to talk names until we have a starting order.

• This will be the third Xfinity race using the low horsepower, high down force package at Indianapolis.  This package slows the cars down from about 185 mph average lap speed to about 165 mph average lap speed.  The cars are full throttle throughout almost the entire lap leaving less control to the driver and leaving more to luck, mechanical issues, traffic and caution/pit timing.
• In the last two races here, we have not seen a single driver score 20+ dominator points for laps led plus fastest laps.  Instead, these points have been spread out among numerous drivers in the top quarter of the field.
  • In 2017, the top lap leaders led 44, 26 and 22 laps. In 2018, the top lap leaders led 41, 21 and 13 laps. It's a small sample size for sure, but it does show very similar outcomes. And it makes sense that we're unlikely to see a true dominator here under this rules package because the field stays packed together, a draft and sling shot move is possible and we have different pit strategies that could move the field around depending upon the timing of stops and cautions, etc.
  • Fastest laps have been even more spread out.  In 2017, the top fastest lap scorers had 17, 12 and 9 fastest laps and a good chunk of other drivers scored 4-8 fastest laps.  In 2018, not a single driver posted more than 10 fastest laps and each of the Top 6 finishers scored between 5-10 fastest laps.
  • At the end of the day, the top dominator in 2017 was Kyle Busch -- but he only scored 19.5 dominator points. He had 44 laps led (11 points) and 17 fastest laps (8.5 points).  In 2016, the top dominator was Justin Allgaier with 41 laps led (10.25 points) and 8 fastest laps (4 points) for 14.25 dominator points.
  • So that tells me we need to focus less on dominator points and more on raw finishing position and grabbing guys with some position difference upside.  And we need to try like heck to avoid anyone losing positions as that will just kill a lineup in these lower scoring races.
• Another thing to note is that last year's race was a caution filled mess.  31 of 100 laps were run under caution and the average green flag run was less then 10 laps.  There were 4 cautions for accidents, 16 of 40 cars were OUT by the end of the race and only 16 of 40 cars were on the lead lap at the end of the race -- which is saying something given how long each lap takes, how many cautions there were and how many lucky dogs were available.  Finally, 4 cars that started in the Top 10 finished outside the Top 20.
  • The 2017 race was more tame.  Only 6 cars were OUT at the end of the race and there were about 20 caution laps.  But we still only had 19 cars finish on the lead lap.  And 3 cars that started in the Top 10 finished outside the Top 20.
  • So this tells me we might want to consider being a bit more conservative with the lineup.  We're not going all the way to a plate track approach, but we need to know the races with this package can turn pretty crazy and create huge negative point differential days for what are normally Top 10 cars.
• Lastly, our start and park cars.  #13 Finchum, #17 Weatherman, #38 Yeley and #89 Shepherd look like early parks.  #74 Harmon might run a bit longer, but I don't think he runs to the end. 
  • #93 Bilicki is a frequent start and park, but I'm pretty sure he's good to go the whole distance this week.  He has a sponsor and full pit crew on the roster.
  • I'll also include my weekly note about the MBM cars -- #35 Gase, #61 Hill and #66 Martins.  I think all these guys are planning to run the full race but this team seems to be hit with multiple mechanical or other issues each week.  I've all but removed this team from cash game consideration unless they are starting really, really far back in the field.  For tournaments, I think Hill is probably too expensive for what you get, but I'd have no problem with Gase or Martins as near minimum price options for tournaments only.  Martins would be my top choice.
    • On a weekly basis, cars from BJ McLeod's team (#5, #78 and #99) or JD Motorsports (#01, #4 and #15) are available for similar prices and have proven to be far more reliable.  I'd stick with them in cash 50/50 games.

There are several good cars starting pretty far back Sunday night.  But, to roster them, you're going to give up much chance of getting a lot of Dominator points for laps led and fastest laps because almost all those points come from cars starting in the Top 10.  In fact, looking at the last four races here, of the cars that scored the most Dominator points (either 50+ laps led or 25+ fastest laps), 20 of those 21 cars started in the Top 10.  And the lone outlier started 16th.  It's only more difficult to pass with the new package this year, so I don't expect this to change at all.

Everyone will start with Kyle Busch and from there you have to decide whether you want to stay more conservative and get guys with position difference upside or go more aggressive and get a couple guys starting in the Top 10 in hopes of getting the DOM points.

Either way you go, here are the guys to target:

• Kyle Busch -- Just lock him in.
• Aric Almirola -- This is the first decision point.  He starts 30th, but like Busch will have to go to the rear to start the race.  I'm inclined to lock him in for cash games.  These guys are above the playoff cut line and just need a safe, solid performance to help lock them in.  Everything they'll be looking to do aligns perfectly with what we'd want from a cash game driver.  I think a 12th-15th place finish is a reasonable likely outcome.
• Ryan Newman -- Kind of similar to Almirola.  He's a bit closer to the playoff cut line, so really needs that solid run.  He's finished in the Top 10 here two of the last three races.
• Eric Jones -- Showed the best long run speed in final practice.  Was 4th in 20 lap average, 3rd in 25 lap average and 1st in 25 lap average.  Over the long run, he gained on and overtook Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin who both have excellent cars and track history.  Finished 5th and 8th in his two Southern 500 races so far.
• Denny Hamlin -- This is a great race track for Denny and he's had good chunks of laps led and fastest laps in the last four races here.  Plus he's on a damn good roll right now with six straight Top 5 finishes.  But can you afford him and Kyle Busch?
• Kyle Larson -- Loves to ride around the top and made great time in final practice.  He had the best 10, 15 and 20 lap average times in final practice.  Top 8 finishes in the last four races coming into this week.  Will probably be the most owned guy for those looking for DOM points.
• Martin Truex -- Real good position difference upside starting 22nd.
• Ty Dillon -- Good upside starting 29th.  Finished 13th and 21st here the last two years.

Bottom line for me as of now is to play this one more conservative and go for position difference in cash games with guys like Almirola, Newman, etc.  There's just too much risk trying to chase DOM points and if you get one of those guys wrong you're toast.  In tournaments, I'd do the exact opposite thing.