A few general notes before moving into the details.  Just 160 laps this week, so many fewer laps led and fastest lap points are in play.  Finishing position and position difference will be even more critical this week.  Also, current forecasts show very tough weather with high rain chances especially on Friday and Saturday.  Hopefully they will get some practice time so we can see how everyone is looking.

Last year, we saw a huge amount of overlap in the Top 10 in the two Pocono races.  Seven drivers finished in the Top 10 in both races and two of those drivers finished in the Top 5 in both races.  These drivers will be a focus this weekend -- even more so if practice gets rained out.  Here's the list:

• Kevin Harvick 2nd, 2nd
• Brad Keselowski 5th, 5th
• Kyle Busch 9th, 1st
• Eric Jones 3rd, 8th
• Martin Truex 6th, 3rd
• Chase Elliott 8th, 10th
• Matt Kenseth 10th, 9th 
• Denny Hamlin narrowly missed this list as well, finishing 12th and 4th

Here are a few more details on some of these drivers and others of note:

• Keselowski has five straight Top 5 finishes Pocono, but has not led more than 11 laps in any of those races
• Harvick has three straight Top 5 finishes at Pocono and has finished in the Top 5 five of the last seven races there
• Kyle Busch won the pole for both Pocono races last year.  He led 100 of 160 laps in the first race, but finished 9th.  He led 74 of 160 laps in the second race and won.  Prior to last year, however, KB had finished 21st or worse in three of the five prior Pocono races.
• Chase Elliott has finished in the Top 10 in three of four Pocono races in the Cup series
• Jimmie Johnson has finished 35th or worse in three of the last four races at Pocono
• Ty Dillon finished in the Top 20 in both Pocono races in 2017.  He has finished between 17th-21st in all four of his Cup series races at Pocono.
• In the last five Pocono races, AJ Allmendinger has one Top 10 finish, two more Top 20 finishes, and he's not finished worse than 23rd.

​We'll have more after cars hit the track.

Here's my final update and thoughts about where I'm going with a cash lineup:

• Harvick remains a lock in cash games.  You can fade him in an alternative lineup if doing multiple entries in a large tournament, but I think you have to lock him in otherwise in both cash and tournaments.
  
• I'm still torn on Kyle Busch and Truex.  My feeling is that we don't see a true dominator on Sunday and that we have 4-5 guys who lead 50+ laps.  I'm thinking that way mostly because we saw a number of other cars look real strong in practice -- including Eric Jones, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano.  Added to the group of Harvick, Busch and Truex, this gives us at least 7 guys who could lead a chunk of laps.  Given that, I'm leaning towards Truex over Busch.  If it looked like KB was ahead of the field, I would be all in.  But I'm not seeing that in the numbers here.  I have no doubt he can be one of the guys to lead 50+ laps, I just don't see him leading 150+ laps and blowing away the field.  Truex has a slight edge in my mind because he, too, can be one of the guys to lead 50+ laps and he has so much more position difference potential since he starts 15th.  The deciding factor is just how good Truex has been the last three 600s.  He's led the most laps and had the most fastest laps in each of the three races.   By contrast, KB has never won a Cup race at Charlotte and has not led more than 65 laps in a Charlotte Cup race since 2011.  All that said, it's in no way wrong to take KB in a cash game, and even I will have him on multiple tournament teams to cover the chance that he does dominate.
• At the salary saver end, I like Allmendinger, Kahne and McDowell the best -- and in that order.  I think they offer the best combination of past performance at Charlotte and being with more reliable teams in better equipment as compared to DiBenedetto and Cassill.
• I have to add Eric Jones to the list of driver targets based on his final practice.  On the 15 lap average chart, he was at 29.405 seconds per lap and the next closest was Kyle Larson at 29.625 per lap.  So he was beating the field by an average of .2 seconds each lap over a longer run.  Mike Joy on Fox commented that Jones did a 19 lap run and that, if he had done one more lap, he would have led the 20 lap average chart as well.  He starts 4th, which makes me a little nervous about position difference downside.  But, on the flip side of that, it gives him a better chance to get to the lead and run fastest laps out front of the field.  I'm willing to use him in cash games and he's a great tournament option even if you choose not to have him in a cash lineup.
• My alternative to Jones is either Chase Elliott or Clint Bowyer.  I doubt either can get to the lead unless they employ some alternative pit strategy.  But, I think both of them can bring it home in the 8th-14th range.  In that spot, they would bring you solid points plus 10 or so position difference bonus points.  The downside is that they're more expensive then Jones, so you would have to run DiBenedetto or Cassill in one of your salary saver spots.

Some other tournament only targets that I'll be including in tournament lineups are:  Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and Kurt Busch.

Some guys I am purposely avoiding in all formats:  Ryan Newman (solid track record, but starting 6th so will lose positions); Alex Bowman (bad track record, bad practice, unlikely to gain much ground from 27th starting spot); Matt Kenseth (starts 17th, but very unlikely to finish in the Top 20); Ty Dillon (starts 20th and will lose ground); and Ross Chastain (starts 25th and will lose ground).

​Good luck everyone!

​

​​Developments during qualifying left us in a very interesting spot.  Based on salary and starting position, I've narrowed down my possible cash game plays to about 10-12 driver targets.  Here's who I'm looking at:

• Kevin Harvick (39th) -- Obviously.  He starts 39th and offers race winning upside combined with position difference upside.  I suspect he'll be near 100% ownership in cash games and I'm thinking you just have to eat his salary and use him because the risk of fading him is just too great.
• Kyle Busch (1st) -- I really want to see how he performs in longer runs during practice.  He starts from pole and the two other guys I feared the most coming into the weekend start much deeper in the field (Harvick 39th and Truex 15th).  So I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the 18 dominate at least the early part of the race and possibly end up with the most laps led.  But, if you use the 4 and 18 both, you'll probably have to also roster three lower tier salary savers.
• Martin Truex (15th) -- As we documented earlier this week, he has really dominated the last two 600s.  There's no way to roster all of these first three guys, so we'll need to see more in practice to make what will be a tough call between the 18 and 78. 
• Chase Elliott (22nd), Clint Bowyer (28th), Jimmie Johnson (23rd) and Alex Bowman (27th) -- All of these guys are mid-tier in salary and offer good position difference upside.  I'll be watching all of them to see longer run speed in practice.  At the end of the day, though, salary considerations may force our hand in who we pick from this group.
• Kasey Kahne (26th), AJ Allmendinger (30th), Matt DiBenedetto (31st), Michael McDowell (29th) and Landon Cassill (35th) -- These guys are the salary savers I'll be looking at.  I like Kahne at Charlotte, but he's also the most expensive of this group at $6,700 and may be too much for the budget.  AJ has back-to-back Top 20 finishes in the 600 in the 47 car, so he's a decent option.  Matt D and Cassill worry me because they are with low budget teams and there's great concern about them not finishing the race.  I really want to have only one of those two on my roster if at all possible.  McDowell seems hit or miss.  He seems to have odd stuff happen at times and that's not good in a 600 miler.  But he's on a decent team now, so it gives him a chance to finish around 20th if all goes well.

We'll be back late Saturday night with a final update and thoughts for your roster construction.  In the meantime, you can tweet any questions @illinisjc

In the last post, I identified an initial group of drivers of particular interest to me coming into this race weekend.  Here's a few more notes -- mostly about those guys and their performance in the last three 600 mile races and on 1.5 mile tracks this season.

• Martin Truex -- I noted how he's dominated the last two 600 races.  In looking back another year, it is even more clear cut how good he is in the 600.  In the last three 600 races, he has led the most laps in each race and had the most fastest laps in each race.  He has finished 5th, 1st and 3rd in those three races.  At 1.5 mile tracks this season, he has a Top 5 finish in three of the four races -- with a season best 2nd place finish in the last race at Kansas.
  
• Kevin Harvick -- Harvick has been ridiculously good on the 1.5 mile tracks this year.  He has won 3 of the 4 races -- Atlanta, Las Vegas and Kansas.  In the other race at Texas he finished 2nd.  So his average finish at the 1.5 mile tracks so far is 1.25!  In the last three 600 mile races, he has finished 9th, 2nd and 8th.  He has had between 22-47 fastest laps in those races and led between 26-45 laps (except for 2016 when Truex led 392 of 400).
  
• Kyle Busch -- Kyle has finished in the Top 10 at all 1.5 mile track races this season.  He won at Texas, was 2nd at Las Vegas and most recently finished 10th at Kansas.  Last year in the 600, he probably had the second best car to Truex.  Kyle led 63 laps and had 67 fastest laps.
  
• Joey Logano -- He's finished in the Top 7 in all 4 races this season at 1.5 mile tracks.  His best of those, was a 3rd place in the last race at Kansas.
  
• Denny Hamlin -- He has 2 Top 5 finishes at 1.5 mile tracks this year.  The problem is that in the other two 1.5 mile track races, he was outside the Top 15.  In the 600, Hamlin has two straight Top 5 finishes and he was 8th three years ago.  He's run between 4-38 fastest laps in those races and even led 53 laps in 2015.
  
• Kurt Busch -- Kurt has three straight Top 10 finishes in the 600.  In 2015, he had 61 fastest laps and 118 laps led -- trailing Truex narrowly in both categories that race.  In 2016 and 2017, he had only a handful of fastest laps and laps led in the 600, but he finished both races in 6th and had a +7 and +6 position difference in those races.  He's finished in the Top 8 in three of the four races on 1.5 mile tracks this year.
  

We'll post more Thursday after qualifying and then again late Saturday night after all the practices are complete. 

I'm not going to do a write-up on the All Star race.  It's a totally new rules package that has no relation to anything they've ever used at Charlotte before.  There is a restrictor plate, enlarged spoiler and a different splitter.  There is no comparison to anything they have run in the past, so there's no reason to look at historical results.  I expect the thing to be totally unpredictable and pretty wacky and I have no interest in putting any money into it.

Looking ahead to the 600, here are a few guys with good to great Charlotte histories who I am starting to focus on.  As always, a lot will depend on practice and qualifying position:

• Martin Truex -- He has really dominated the last two 600 races.  In 2016, he won and led 392 of 400 laps.  (CRAZY!)  Last year, he finished 3rd and led 233 of 400 laps.  He was the fastest car much of the night last year, but lost out to Austin Dillon who made one less pit stop and used some extreme fuel savings to edge the field.
  
• Denny Hamlin -- I always worry about pit road penalties for Hamlin, especially in such a long race with so many stops.  But, he's finished in the Top 5 the last two 600 races.  And he's been in the Top 5 in 4 of the last 5 Charlotte races overall.
  
• Kevin Harvick -- How could he not be on the list?  He is on some roll right now.  And he's finished in the Top 10 in 9 of the last 10 Charlotte races and 13 of the last 15.  He's been consistently strong there for a very long time.
  
• Jimmie Johnson -- Team Hendrick (and Jimmie in particular) always run well at Charlotte.  Their race shop is literally just down the street from the track.  Jimmie won in October 2016.  He was 3rd in the 600 in 2016.  Last year in the 600, he was leading late on the same fuel savings strategy that Austin Dillon used.  But, Johnson ran out with about two laps left and limped home 17th.
  
• Ryan Newman -- The 600 fits his profile of being a very consistent guy who just keeps grinding.  He's finished in the Top 10 in 4 of the last 5 600 races.
  
• Chase Elliott -- In 2 of the last 4 Charlotte races, Chase has finished 2nd (Fall 2017) and 8th (May 2016).  But in the other 2, he had wrecks and finished 38th (May 2017) and 33nd (Fall 2016).  In both races where he wrecked, he qualified 3rd.  So, he's always had good speed here.  It's just been some pretty bad luck that skews his average finishing position to be way worse than it probably should be.
  

We'll have much more coverage for the 600 in the coming days.

Here's what I'm thinking for lineup construction this week:

DraftKings

For cash games, 50/50s, double ups:

• I think you absolutely have to lock in Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer.  Harvick starts from the pole and it looks like he has another dominant race winning car.  It would be very surprising to see anything other than a Top 3 finish with 75+ laps led and fastest laps.  For Bowyer, he has a very fast car, but starts 33rd because he didn't get through inspection in time to qualify.  He was #4 on the 10 lap and 15 lap average charts and #3 on the 20 lap average chart in practice.  When he has shown well in practice this year, he has typically had a very good race.  Both of these guys have massive upside and should be 75%+ owned in cash games.  It would be very risky to fade either of them.
• Next, we have three good salary saver options this week.  Kasey Kahne (34th), Michael McDowell (36th) and Matt DiBenedetto (37th) all failed qualifying inspection just like Bowyer.  You'll want to grab at least one, probably two, and maybe even all three of them depending on what else you do.  Kahne has a good history at Kansas (albeit with a better team).  This year, he's finished 21st, 19th and 17th at the three 1.5 mile tracks.  McDowell has a decent history at Kansas with lesser teams.  This year, he has finished 24th, 37th and 14th at the 1.5 mile tracks.  DiBenedetto hasn't had great Kansas finishes.  This year, he has finished 31st, 22nd, 16th at the 1.5 mile tracks.  I would rank them Kahne, DiBenedetto and McDowell.  ADDED -- Depending on what else you do, Kenseth is also a possibility here.  He starts 35th.  I don't expect all that much from him, but something in the range of 20th-25th is certainly doable and would get the job done.
• Finally, grab a few guys starting mid-pack with position difference upside.  The group I am focusing on includes Eric Jones (12th), Chase Elliott (17th), Kyle Larson (22nd, but to the rear), Jimmie Johnson (23rd) and Jamie McMurray (24th).  Of this group, Larson easily had the best car in practice.  He was best overall in 10 lap and 20 lap average and 2nd in 15 lap average.  He was loose in qualifying and spun in Round 2, so he officially starts 22nd -- although he will really start from the rear because he'll have to change tires.  There's some risk with Larson, and he doesn't have a great Kansas history, but he definitely has the most upside of this group.  Johnson and McMurray are about the same guy to me for this week.  Neither looked great in practice or real happy with their car.  But they're veteran drivers, have had some success at Kansas, and will probably finish around the 12-18 range.  If I had to pick one, it would be Johnson, but he's kind of pricey for what he offers these days.  As for Jones and Elliott, I'm not loving either of them, but they both offer about +5-6 position difference upside and a solid points day.

For large tournaments:

• Harvick and Bowyer will be obvious "chalk" picks.  If you take one or both, you're going to need to differentiate yourself with your other picks.  Blaney, Almirola, Logano, Keselowski, Hamlin and Kurt Busch are a few you can consider.  ADDED:  I intended to include Kyle Busch in this list.  If Harvick falters, Kyle could be a dominator and be relatively low owned since most are paying up for Harvick.  Truex could also be considered for the same reason, but I like Kyle a bit better.

FanDuel

• Much the same as DK.  You'll want Harvick and Bowyer, 2 of the salary savers and then someone like Logano, Almirola or Blaney.

Fantasy Live

• Harvick, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Aric Almirola, Martin Truex and Joey Logano.

As always, you can Tweet any race day questions @illinisjc

Honestly, I don't have a whole lot to add to what we said in the look ahead a few days ago.  I fully expect this race to be won by Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch or Martin Truex.  And some combination of those three is likely to dominate the race as well.  That is basically what has happened the last four Texas races.  Truex won both races last year, with Harvick and Busch each winning a race in 2016.

Also, in looking back at the last few Kansas races, there have been a good amount of Top 10 finishers coming from back in the field.  Last Fall, for example, four of the Top 10 finishers started 19th or worse.  In the Spring, four of the Top 10 finishers started 15th or worse.  So there will also be some opportunity for position difference points here.

I also looked back at the three races this year on 1.5 mile tracks.  Of note, Harvick won two of those races and finished second in the other one.  Kyle Busch has finished 7th, 2nd and 1st.  Truex has two Top 5 finishes, but crashed out at Texas.  Logano has finished 6th, 7th and 6th.  Keselowski, Blaney, Kurt Busch and Eric Jones have been pretty strong as well.

​I'll have a lineup construction update posted real late Friday night after I can watch practice and qualifying.

DOVER
I'm really happy with the way things went this week for our target drivers.  We really hit on a few of them.  Here are a few rewind notes from the Dover race:

• We had Harvick and Truex as the best of the Dominator types.  Harvick was an absolute beast.  Truex really had a good car and probably would have had an even better showing if he didn't have to overcome the issues he had near the end of Stage 1 with a tire going flat.
• We were all over Kyle Busch's odd history of poor performance in the Spring race.  While we kept him listed as a potential Dominator, we liked others better and identified his Spring race issues in our last two updates.  I don't know exactly why it continues to happen but, once again, he suffered a mechanical issue and finished poorly.  It was his fourth finish of 30th or worse in the last five Spring races.  Conversely, in the last five Fall races, he has a win, four Top 5s and hasn't finished worse than 10th.  Very, very odd.
• We nailed it on Clint Bowyer -- going so far as to note a chance at a Top 5 finish with laps led.  He finished 2nd, led 40 laps and was +10 position difference.  He, too, may have been even better but for an early pit road incident.  In the first round of pit stops under caution, he had to pit twice due to an air gun/air hose issue.  He re-started from the rear so it took him longer to work his way to the front.
• We also pushed Kasey Kahne and his strong history on concrete tracks.  We'll take a Top 20 and +8 position difference from Kahne any day.
• I'm disappointed with Ryan Newman, Paul Menard and Austin Dillon.  They each had their own issues.  Fortunately, our other picks were strong enough to overcome them.

KANSAS
I'm happy with the roll we're on, but am already working on Kansas.  Here's a few things to know about that race next week:

• This is a compressed schedule, two day event.  There are two practices and then qualifying on Friday afternoon.  The race is then Saturday night.  I really don't like this set up because the teams are forced to do race practice before qualifying and before they know their starting position.  But it's what we got.
• Truex won both Kansas races last year and has to be considered the favorite at another 1.5 mile track where he does so well.
• After a rough history early on, Kyle Busch has five Top 5 finishes in the last six Kansas races.  He won the Spring race in 2016.
• Harvick has a win, three 2nd place finishes and a 3rd place finish in eight races with SHR.
• Blaney has four Top 10 finishes in the last five races.  Now with Team Penske, he has an even better chance of running near the front.
• Watch the Dillon brothers.  This is one of Austin's best tracks and he finished 6th in both Kansas races in 2016.  Ty finished 14th and 16th in the two races last year in his first season with Germain Racing.
• Kyle Larson has finished 30th or worse in three of the last four races.

​   

URGENT UPDATE -- Larson will start from the rear.  Do not use in cash games.  OK to replace with another Dominator or possibly Jimmie Johnson.

This is a tricky race to pick because it's not clear who our 1 or 2 Dominators will be.  I'm going to focus first on DraftKings and then do a few FanDuel specific notes.

Here is what I am thinking on a DK lineup build:

• Grab 2 of Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex and Kyle Busch.  A real good case can be made for every one of these guys being a Dominator.  Larson did it both races last year, but he didn't sound too confident after final practice today.  Harvick was near the top of all the speed charts Saturday and had some dominant performances here a few years back, but he wasn't great last year.  Truex has been real good the last 4-5 seasons at Dover and is probably the safest pick.  Busch won in October and has a strong history here, but has finished 36th, 30th and 16th in the last three Spring races.  If forced to chose, I would take Harvick and Truex, but I wouldn't argue with anyone who likes Larson or Busch better.
• Pick 2 salary savers from this group -- David Ragan, Kasey Kahne, AJ Allmendinger and Ty Dillon.  Ragan is the cheapest position difference option.  He starts 32nd, so he only needs to run in the Top 25 or so to make it pay off.  Kahne is always a risk, but he's shown decent speed this week and he tends to do well on the concrete tracks.  AJ and Ty offer some position difference upside.  I don't expect either to run better than 20th, but the hope is they finish the race and get you about 5-7 PD points.  My favorites are Ragan and Kahne.
• With remaining salary, grab 2 from this mid tier group -- Austin Dillon, Paul Menard, Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman.  Dillon hasn't been great here, but he starts 27th, so doesn't have to do much to return good value.  Menard starts 20th and was quite fast in final practice.  He probably carries the most risk in this group.  Bowyer was real fast in final practice.  He was fastest in 10 and 15 lap averages.  I am expecting a Top 10 with an outside chance for a Top 5 with laps led, etc.  Newman starts 21st and has a pretty solid track record here.  He often finishes in the mid-teens and occasionally slips into the tail end of the Top 10.  My favorites here are Dillon and Bowyer.
• Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Aric Almirola and William Byron are all tournament only options I am looking at in addition to the guys mentioned above.

For FanDuel, we're still in the learning process there for what works best.  I think many of the same concepts translate from our DK build this week.

• You can still get 2 of the most likely dominators
• You can grab 1 of the salary savers
• And you still probably have room for 2 of the mid-tier or tournament guys identified in the DK section

If you have any last minute question, you can tweet them @illinisjc

And if you like what we're doing here, are learning how to build winning lineups and winning money, please consider supporting our effort through our Patreon page CLICK HERE FOR LINK.  The more resources we have, the better we can be.  Thank you.

I'll have a full update late Saturday with most of my lineup strategy.  For now, here's a list of the drivers I will be watching most closely in practice tomorrow.  They are listed in qualifying order:

• Kyle Larson (1st) -- led the most laps in both races last year and stands a good chance of doing so again on Sunday
• Harvick (2nd) -- Not a great track history but Dominator potential.
• Truex (3rd) -- Three straight Top 5s and 7 of 8 Top 10s.  A strong candidate for Dominator.
• Kyle Busch (4th) -- Won last Dover race.
• Chase Elliott (6th) -- Top 5 finishes in all four races at Dover.  Led 138 laps last Fall.
• Logano (18th) -- looking for position difference here
• Johnson (19th) -- The Man at Dover with good position difference possibility
• Jamie McMurray (23rd) -- Been good here lately.  Don't know what happened in qualifying but offers good position difference upside and his teammate has a lot of speed.
• Austin Dillon (27th) -- Had a really bad qualifying effort but has been pretty good in last three Dover races.
• Ty Dillon (30th) -- Cheap with position difference upside.