Adding notes/updates in bold below throughout the weekend:

It's hard to find good comps for this Sunday's Cup Series race in New Hampshire. We've got the new 2020 short track package with a lot less down force compared to last year, so even looking back to the 2019 New Hampshire race isn't a great comparison. (But FYI, Danny Hamlin dominated the race with 113 laps led and 55 fastest laps. He finished 2nd to Kevin Harvick, who led just 41 laps and ran 33 fastest laps.)

The few races the Cup Series has run with this 2020 short track package aren't directly on point either because the tracks are quite a bit different, or they were night time races or, in the case of Phoenix, it was run before the COVID break and after practice and qualifying. So, we're left interpreting numbers that really don't match up well with the race we have on Sunday.

The first critical cash game decision is what to do with Christopher Bell. He's back to starting 35th this week and is $10,100. To hit a 5x return, he'll need over 50 points, which means a 14th place finish or better. That is certainly doable for him and I'd say a finish right around 15th is a reasonable expectation. This will be Bell's first Cup Series race at New Hampshire, but he was awesome at this track in his Xfinity Series races. Last year, he won the Xfinity race, led 186 of 200 laps and ran 99 fastest laps. In 2018, he also won the Xfinity race, led 93 laps and ran 25 fastest laps. That 2018 Xfinity field included Brad Keselowski, Ryan Preece and Austin Dillon all in good cars. So, Bell and his crew chief Jason Ratcliffe (who went with him from Xfinity to the Cup Series) have done really well together at this track. It's a different series, obviously, but it's a good indicator that this car should have a good set up coming into Sunday. Another factor in Bell's favor is that the Joe Gibbs cars traditionally run really, really well at New Hampshire. In the last two races here, the four Joe Gibbs cars have a total of six Top 8 finishes and no finish worse than 16th. Bell isn't in a full Gibbs ride, but it's as close as you can get. Finally, Matt DiBennedetto ran this same #95 car to a 5th place finish at New Hampshire last year. Again, different package and different driver, but another indicator this team should have the information to come to the track with a good set up.

In the end, I think Bell works here because you've got some reasonably priced dominator plays and some decent cheap options to fill out a really strong lineup. My own style is to prefer the safety of Bell here instead of using the $10k to chase another potential dominator. Let's talk about some of the targets to complete your lineup.

Dominators

• I love Martin Truex at the short, flat tracks. He's been great at New Hampshire in the past. His worst race here recently was last year when they ran the high down force package which is out for this year. And even last year, he finished 6th. He just didn't dominate with laps led or a lot of fastest laps. Before last year, Truex led at least 80 laps and scored at least 66 DK points in the five prior New Hampshire races. Truex was strong at Phoenix and Martinsville earlier this year, both of which used the 2020 short track package we'll have this weekend. He was heading for a great day after starting from the rear at Phoenix but got caught in a wreck to end his day. At Martinsville, he led 132 laps, ran 58 fastest laps and scored 112 DK points. Starting from 11th on Sunday, he has +8-10 position difference upside and true dominator potential.
• Kevin Harvick has won three of the last five races here, but he hasn't dominated any of them. In 2016, he won but led only 8 laps. In 2018, he won but led only 12 laps. And last year, he won but led only 41 laps. He did run 37 and 33 fastest laps in the last two New Hampshire races to boost his point total somewhat. But, at the most expensive price tag, I'm not entirely convinced he has the dominator potential to hit the value we'd need. And, even if he does hit value, using him would likely force us into playing some really dicey salary saver/punt options.
• Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch are both too cheap for the upside they offer. Either one (or both) could lead 100 laps or more and crush dominator points. At the same time, they're risky because, if they don't lead, they probably will lose some spots and not get you a 5x return. Of the two, Kyle has been much better at New Hampshire, but his past performance at tracks has not been translating into results this season. I just can't push him as a strong cash game option right now. Chase has run well in this package so far this season, but he's not been good at all at New Hampshire. He has only one Top 10 finish in the last six races here and has fallen below 40 DK points in five of the last six New Hampshire races. He did score 84 DK points at Phoenix and 60 DK points at Martinsville earlier this year and a repeat of either of those performances would crush for us at his $9,100 salary.
• I like Denny Hamlin and think it's either he or Aric Almirola who will lead for a while early on in this race. Denny dominated this race last year, leading 113 laps and running 55 fastest laps for 118.75 DK points. But, he has struggled with this package this season, finishing 20th at Phoenix, 17th at Bristol and 24th at Martinsville. Added: Hamlin will have the #1 pit stall by virtue of his win last week in Kansas, so that could help him gain a few spots (or maintain the lead) on pit road.

Salary Savers

• Daniel Suarez -- I've been using Suarez lately because he's starting 37th every week, is cheap, and is keeping the car clean. He's not going to be fast, but he's going to beat Timmy Hill, B.J. McLeod and the Rick Ware cars on speed. He'll also finish in front of anyone who wrecks out. So we're looking at a floor of about 27th with a +10 position difference, which is 27 DK points. He could sneak up another 3-4 spots if we have more cars than normal dropping or wrecking out of the race. But don't project anything over 30 points here.
• Chris Buescher -- This is a guy I have historically loved and used a lot in cash games. He's kind of a lesser known Ryan Newman who seems to always bring the car home in the 15th-18th range. This year, he's been more expensive and started higher up with the random draws, so he hasn't been on the radar as much. But this week, he starts 24th and is only $6,100. I feel he's a very safe play for around a 20th place finish. Buescher has finished 21st, 20th and 15th in the last three New Hampshire races. And he was 13th and 17th at Martinsville and Phoenix earlier this year, which are the best comps using the 2020 short track package. It's probably a stretch to predict that high of a finish here, but it does give some confidence in projecting a Top 20 finish.
• Rickey Stenhouse -- The polar opposite of Buescher -- which is the reason Buescher is in Stenhouse's old #17 ride this year. Stenhouse is always a big risk for cash games because he wrecks out a lot. But now we've got him starting back in 31st so he doesn't necessarily kill everything if he does have a problem. If he doesn't wreck, you could project about a 20th place finish.
• Ryan Newman -- Similar to Buescher in that he's on the safer side, but a bit more expensive. Newman has finished 6th and 7th in the last two New Hampshire races. Think more 15th or 16th when you're projecting out a score for him this week.
• J.H. Nemechek -- I'm reluctant to pay $7k for a guy that has trouble finishing races sometimes. He finished 25th at both Phoenix and Martinsville earlier this season. He does start way back in 36th, though, so he only needs a 22nd place finish to hit 5x value. That's very doable assuming he finishes the race.
• Ryan Preece -- He's dirt cheap because he just keeps finding trouble.  I'm going to wait until he runs a clean race before using him again. Last week was not at all his fault, but the fact is still that he's finished 34th or worse in four straight races and scored a total of 0 DK points in those four races.

Other - Two other guys I like if salary allows and you don't mind a little more risk.

• Matt DiBenedetto -- I mentioned that he finished 5th last year at New Hampshire in the #95 car. Paul Menard ran very well at New Hampshire in the #21 car the last two years, so Matt should be able to as well. Matt ran 13th at Phoenix and 7th at Martinsville earlier this year in the 2020 short track package. A finish in the 8th-12th range is reasonable.
• Eric Jones -- He's coming off two Top 6 finishes in the last two races this season. And all the Gibbs cars, including Jones, have been good at New Hampshire in the past. Top 8 upside, but lots of risk as well.

I'm going to keep this one short. The trucks normally race at night like they did on Friday. But this race is going to start at 1:30 in the afternoon and temperatures are expected to be in the mid-90s. The track is going to be much hotter and slicker than Friday night and the trucks will drive a lot different. I think we'll see a lot more incidents in this race and trucks failing to finish the race as compared to Friday night.

At the end of the day, I'm really focused on position difference and safer, veteran drivers. I don't even want to get into a whole lot of names because I'm guessing we're going to have a lot of ownership overlap with the way the field sets up. I will comment on a few potential value targets.

• Tyler Hill -- I am staying away. This is Timmy's brother and he's much less experienced. Plus he'll have to start from the rear because of the driver change from Timmy on Friday.
• Korbin Forrester -- I don't even know how long he'll race given the major mechanical issue he had late in the race on Friday night.
• Ryan Huff -- This is his first race ever in a Truck. With no practice and an evil racetrack, probably not a good combo. But he's dirt cheap and starts 38th so can't go backwards.

It's a pretty short 250 mile race for the Xfinity Series on Saturday night. Stage lengths are 40-40-87 laps. A competition caution is expected at Lap 20.

There's some decent value on this slate, so I'm fine paying up for at least two (and possibly three) of the big guns. To me, the two I can trust the most in this situation are Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe.

• Cindric has been an absolute beast on the 1.5 mile tracks this season. In the last two weeks (three races) at 1.5 mile tracks, Cindric has put up 91, 123 and 68.5 DK points. And dating back to when the season resumed, his worst performance in the seven races at 1.5 mile tracks was 57.5 DK points. The only wart here is that he's been terrible at Kansas with a 39th and 25th place finish in his two races here. I'm still looking to roll with him because of his series best performance at the 1.5 mile tracks this year.
• Briscoe has just been real solid all season long. He's not necessarily the fastest car or the best at anything, but he doesn't make a lot of mistakes and the team usually executes well. He's finished 4th, 2nd and 3rd in this string of recent races at the 1.5 mile tracks.
• Justin Allgaier has been fast the last two races. He could lead laps and he could win this race. What worries me is the mistakes and catastrophic finishes he has too often. In the last five races at 1.5 mile tracks, Allgaier has had two really good performances and three complete duds where he's finished 20th or worse. For a guy who should have a Top 5 car every single week in this field, it's simply not good enough.
• Noah Gragson is a little tougher call for me. I could see using him over Briscoe to save a little and because Gragson might just have more potential to lead laps or run fastest laps. And he's got some position difference upside starting 10th. On the flip side, he's overly aggressive and it wasn't surprising to see him get wrecked last week and finish 31st. It could happen again as Gragson never seems to shy away from contact. It's also possible to use Gragson as the third head of a three headed monster.

Value, value, value

• Joe Graf Jr -- He's been about an 18-20th place car on the 1.5 mile tracks. In the seven races at 1.5 mile tracks since the season resumed, he's finished 19th, 26th, 16th, 13th, 13th again, 22nd, and 22nd again. Starting 34th for $6,200 is a great deal. If he were to finish 20th, that's 38 DK points, which is a 6x return.
• Josh Williams -- I just love his consistency. He won't mess up and he'll get you all the car has in it. Relative to what's around him in this salary range, he's the most solid play there.
• Brandon Brown -- Should be a Top 15 car. Has been a bit more consistent then a guy like Ryan Sieg this year.
• Ryan Sieg -- I just can't use him in cash right now. He's having an issue almost every week and has three finishes of 30th or worse in the last six races. He's also got limited upside starting 16th. Maybe he could gain 4-5 spots if all goes well? It's a great price and as cheap as we've seen him, so if you can stomach the risk, he could pay off. 
• Colin Garrett -- Part time effort with nothing but upside starting at the back in 37th position. He ran both races at Homestead (a 1.5 mile track) and finished 21st and 14th. He's been priced way up here compared to Homestead, but he still hits value if he finishes 22nd or better. Not a must play or free square, but a good option.
• Jess Little, B.J. McLeod and David Starr -- All these guys should finish right about where they start. If you want to go real cheap and take a chance on them to spend up elsewhere, it's a reasonable option.

Other

• Myatt Snider starting 33rd might seem attractive for cash games. But he's in the #93 again this week and that car is really not all that reliable. The very best you could realistically hope for is about a 15th place finish, which would be 47 DK points and right on the 5x line. If I'm paying $9k+ for a guy, I want a much better ride.

That was a very odd and ugly Cup Series race on Thursday night. The Trucks will run a short 200 mile race on Friday night. They are running a second 200 mile race on Saturday. Stage lengths are 30-30-74 laps. There is no competition caution.

The past two races at Kansas have not had many cautions or trucks getting knocked out of the race due to wrecks. With a second race on Saturday, I think most drivers will be a bit more conservative on Friday and we could see a pretty green race. So don't count too much on slower trucks starting in the back who rely on other trucks wrecking out to gain a lot of positive position difference.

• I'm starting with Christian Eckes who will start from pole on Friday. He had a really strong truck last week in Texas, leading 52 laps even though Kyle Busch was in the race. I think it's most likely that Eckes gets the lead early and he could keep it for all of Stage 1. It also helps that there is no competition caution to bunch up the field half way through the Stage.
• I also really like the top tier position difference guys at the top of the salary structure -- Ross Chastain, Johnny Sauter and Matt Crafton. Since there are multiple grooves at Kansas, these guys should be able to pass slower trucks.
  • Chastain probably has the most potential to lead laps, but even that's a stretch. Chastain won at Kansas last year, but didn't have the best truck and led only four laps. He benefited from the Top 3 trucks either getting into each other and spinning or running out of fuel late in the race. 
  • Sauter and Crafton, of course, offer more position difference potential. Sauter has three Top 5 finishes at the 1.5 mile tracks already this year. He had mechanical issues at Kansas last year, but finished 2nd in 2017 and 5th in 2018. 
  • Crafton had a really fast truck last week. He had to make multiple extra pit stops to deal with a battery issue and still raced up to finish 3rd, with 12 fastest laps. He's now finished 3rd the last two races and he, too, has three Top 5 finishes already at the 1.5 mile tracks this season.
• I love the Zane Smith and Grant Enfinger pairing at $7,900 - $8,000. Both guys have legitimate Top 5 potential and are too cheap.
  
  • Enfinger had a Top 2 truck at Kansas last year when he led 48 laps and ran 20 fastest laps. He finished 7th only because of late race contact with Brett Moffitt which caused them both to spin while they were fighting for 2nd place.
    
  • Smith has been really fast all year and even seemed to impress Kyle Busch last week at Texas. It wouldn't surprise me to see him lead laps at some point on Friday night.
• Derek Kraus has been very good of late and has legitimate potential for a Top 10 finish for under $7k.
• On the safer side in that price range, Robby Lyons starts 34th. Barring an issue, he should easily finish 25th or better. He was in this truck at Pocono and went from 33rd to 20th for 37 DK points.
• I again like Timmy Hill for only $4,800. He ran a new truck for the first time last week at Texas and finished 18th. He tweeted after the race that they learned a lot, would make a few adjustments and bring the same truck to Kansas. All we need is a Top 20 to make value here and I really like the chances of getting it. I have no idea why DK dropped his price after last week.
• I always talk about Austin Hill at the 1.5 mile tracks. The #16 crew really has an elite 1.5 mile program. He ran 4th at Kansas last year but was never really in the hunt for the lead. I wouldn't fault anyone for playing him and it's a strong tournament play. But, for cash games, I think the right play is to spend up for the top position difference guys this week, not Hill. Among other things, this race is so short that it's really going to limit the laps led and fastest laps points out there and Hill would have to get up there pretty quickly to make it work over the position difference guys.
• I also wanted to comment on Brandon Jones. He's just too risky for me in a cash game. If you want to take the chance, he should have a really good truck and could very well lead for a while and win on Friday. I just don't trust him.

We've got 400 miles of racing on a Thursday night in Kansas. It's another 1.5 mile track, but the racing will look quite a bit different than what we've seen the last few weeks at Kentucky and Texas. Those tracks are one groove tracks where side to side racing is almost impossible. Kansas, on the other hand, has multiple grooves from down on the white line all the way up to the wall. We can see three and sometimes even four wide racing on restarts. We didn't see any of that at Kentucky or Texas.

However, like Kentucky and Texas, we probably won't see a whole lot of tire wear or fall off. This means some teams could use two tire or even no tire pit stops to get their guys track position just like RCR did with Austin Dillon and Tyler Reddick last week at Texas. I don't think the two tire or no tire guys would be able to hold the lead as long as Dillon and Reddick did at the end of the race last week. But it is enough to make it likely we see more drivers lead laps and some drivers finish better then they "deserve" based on their speed and running order throughout the race.

There's a lot to like about almost every one of the most expensive drivers. Kyle Busch could have won at Kansas last Spring if he didn't cut a tire on a late race restart. He had a Top 3 car in Stage 3 of that race. Martin Truex is getting stronger and stronger. Denny Hamlin won at Kansas last Fall. They are all solid plays. In the end, though, here are the top three choices in my mind heading into Thursday: 

• Kevin Harvick -- You've got to like Harvick's chances to score a whole lot of DK points starting from the pole. He was the dominant car starting from the pole at Kansas last Spring, leading 104 laps and running 58 fastest laps. (The Spring race was run at night, so could be a better comparison than the Fall daytime race.) He finished that race 13th, but that was because he got a windshield tear off stuck on the grill late in the race and had to make an unscheduled green flag pit stop which put him a lap down. In the last eight Kansas races, Harvick has scored at least 56 DK points every single time, and is averaging 75 DK points per race over that span. He's also on a good run overall this year. In the last five races this season, he's finished in the Top 5 every race and has two wins. Finally, he's run really well at the night time races at intermediate tracks since the season resumed -- 129 and 62 DK points at Darlington and 55 and 74 DK points at Charlotte. He did have the dud at Homestead, but that was originally supposed to be a day time race and was run at night only because of the rain delay. All signs point to a big night.
• Chase Elliott -- I really like Chase this week. He too ran well at Kansas in the Spring race last year, leading 45 laps and running 28 fastest laps despite starting in the rear. In the last three Kansas races, he's finished 1st, 4th and 2nd. And he's been great at the night time races since the season resumed. At Darlington, he scored 50 DK points in race one and was one his way to a huge night in race two before Kyle Busch wrecked him on a late race restart. At Charlotte, he scored 76 and 80 DK points. And he had 66 DK points at Homestead. His three best DK days since the season resumed were at night time races at 1.5 mile tracks. That said, it is concerning that he hasn't performed well at all the last few weeks. He's had some odd pit stops late in races resulting in really bad finishes. I could absolutely see saving some salary and going with Hamlin or the next guy over Elliott if you don't feel strongly about him.
• Ryan Blaney -- No one has had a better car at the 1.5 mile tracks then Blaney this season. He's led laps at those races and run a bunch of fastest laps, but often failed to come up with the finish he "deserves" based on his overall speed. It's a coin flip for me between Blaney, Elliott and Hamlin.

On the other end, we've got a handful of reasonable cheap plays ($6,500 and under) this week:

• Daniel Suarez -- He's started 37th nine times this year and scored an average of 29 DK points in those races. And he's scored no fewer than 19 points. He's finished 28th or better in four straight races and in five out of the last six. He doesn't have as much upside as some of the other guys back here, but he might actually be a bit safer.
• Ty Dillon -- In a great spot this week starting 36th. He should have no problem finishing with at least +10 position difference.
• Corey LaJoie -- I've got no problem just taking the cheapest option here and hoping for a +5 position difference. But that's about the ceiling. 
• Michael McDowell -- He's fine, although I don't see more than a +3/4 position difference finish here.
• Ryan Preece -- He's running into issue after issue right now. But he did finish 25th and 12th at Kansas last year. He's cheap enough to take a chance on if you can handle the risk of going that direction.

There's also a lot of strong targets in the mid tier ($7k-$9k):

• Tyler Reddick -- Ran at Kansas last Spring and finished 9th. Excellent position difference upside starting 23rd.
• Eric Jones -- 3rd and 7th at Kansas in the two races last year. He's finished in the Top 7 the last four races here. He's just so up and down. He was up last week, so . . . Also, $9k is steep for the risk profile he brings. But there is upside there, too, starting 21st.
• Clint Bowyer -- Way too cheap at $7,500. He ran 5th and 8th at Kansas last year. This is his home track where he desperately wants to do well. Lots of paths to a 5x return starting 19th.
• Rickey Stenhouse -- 11th and 16th last year at Kansas. In the Spring race, he was running in the Top 5 a lot of the night and got shuffled back to 11th during a few late race restarts. He was a legitimate Top 5 car in that race. Obviously, it was a different team, but it's the same driver and crew chief still working together this year. He's at his best (which is still a relative term) at these tracks where we have multiple grooves and passing options.

It was a really good Saturday with wins across the board in Xfinity and a good solid profit in Trucks. I need a break. Not doing a write up for Cup. See you next week.

[For the Xfinity Series article, scroll down]

The Trucks race on Saturday night is the misnamed "Vankor 350" because the race is really 250 miles long -- which means 167 laps and stages of 40, 40 and 87. There will apparently be no competition caution, but an incident caution is still likely in Stage 1.

Speaking of incidents, Texas truck races seem to have a lot of them.

• The last race here had 13 cautions with almost 40% of the race run under yellow. Only 9 trucks finished on the lead lap and 14 of 32 trucks finished 10 or more laps down.
• The Spring 2019 race had 9 cautions with 32% of the race run under yellow. 15 trucks finished on the lead lap and 11 of 32 trucks finished 10 or more laps down.
• In Fall 2018, there were 7 cautions, 11 trucks finished on the lead lap and 10 of 32 trucks finished 10 or more laps down.
• In Spring 2018, there were 9 cautions, 12 trucks finished on the lead lap and 14 of 32 trucks finished 10 or more laps down.

The first question again is what to do with Kyle Busch. Chances are he dominates this race completely. He starts 4th and I don't think he'll have much problem taking the lead quickly. With no competition caution, he could build a pretty significant lead before the end of the stage or pit stops, which should help him stay up front after that.

The bigger question is what to do with Ross Chastain, who is also an excellent play with Top 5 and +20 position difference upside. It is possible to pair Kyle and Ross -- who I think will be the two highest scorers by a decent margin -- and then fill in with cheap guys starting in the back. The cheap guys aren't great or reliable, but they don't have much downside and give you the room to play the two studs. The other option is to be more balanced and pair Kyle with a group of more reliable guys with some position difference upside.

Who to target in those groups?

• On the extreme salary saver side, guys like Cory Roper and Codie Rohrbaugh are fine. I generally don't like either in the cash game setting because they typically do pretty well or really, really bad. But you have to roll with them if you want Kyle and Ross. Of the two, you have to go Roper right now. Rohrbaugh literally wrecked on the first lap in the last two races. Since it's a small team, who knows how well the truck will even run after major damage just last week.
• I do kind of like Timmy Hill as well even though he's starting a little further forward than we'd like at 22nd. It looks like he's bringing an equipment upgrade this weekend, so something barely inside the Top 20 seems possible. But we really just want him to hold his starting spot and get us 20+ points.
• Brennan Poole, Jordan Anderson, Austin Wayne Self, Spencer Boyd and Tate Fogleman all offer some value.
  • Poole has the most upside and he has three Top 20 finishes in the last four races. He finished 9th and 7th at Texas last year.
  • Anderson and Self have basically the same profile. Both should have enough speed to hang right around 20th. But both are also risks for wrecking or equipment failure. On the plus side, they're veterans with decent experience at Texas. 
  • Boyd and Fogleman kind of blend together too and are more 24th-26th kind of guys. I feel like Fogleman should be getting more out of the truck (Tyler Dippel did last year), but the results haven't been there just yet.
  • If salary were no issue, Poole would be clearly the best play in this group.
• Derek Kraus is around the same price and has been really, really good this year. He has three Top 10 finishes in the last four races. I don't think we can count on that, but 12th-15th is a reasonable projection. He also carries the most risk, though, if he gets caught up in one of the wrecks since he starts 17th.
• Higher up the salary range, I like Christian Eckes, Tanner Gray and Matt Crafton to have solid returns for their salaries. Rough projections to give an idea of value are 5th for Eckes, 12th for Gray and 8th for Crafton.

UPDATES FROM INITIAL POST IN BOLD

The first of three Texas races is Saturday afternoon in the Xfinity Series. It will be 300 miles, which is 200 laps -- leaving 50 points for laps led and about 100 points for fastest laps. Kyle Busch is back in the field in a Joe Gibbs Racing car starting 28th.

The first question is what to do with Kyle. To me, it's not much of a question at all. You play him. 

• You can see from the DK box scores that he's run three Xfinity races this year and finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in those races. He's led at least 45 laps and run at least 32 fastest laps in each of those races. He's scored 75, 96 and 113 DK points. His salary is all the way up to $17,000, so he needs to score 85 points to hit 5x value.
• He starts 28th. Let's say he hits his worst numbers from earlier this season -- 3rd place, 45 laps led and 32 fastest laps. That adds up to 93.25 DK points. 
• Now let's average his three races this season. That would be 2nd place, 72 laps led and 40 fastest laps, which adds up to 106 DK points.
• If he wins this race, that alone would be 73 DK points before you even consider laps led and fastest laps. So you can see just how high his ceiling is here.
• Finally, Kyle ran the Spring race at Texas last year. He started 5th, won the race, led 33 laps and ran 52 fastest laps for 84 DK points. That's right at the 5x return we need. And remember the field was much tougher last year with Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick and Cole Custer. Kyle has a much easier path this year to exceeding his 84 DK points from last year's race.

The other factor that makes the Kyle decision really easy is that we've got some solid plays at very affordable salaries. This makes it fairly easy to put together a credible lineup even with Kyle eating $17k of the salary cap.

• Colby Howard at $5,700 starting 35th is almost a free square. He's been running the 1.5 mile tracks this year in the #15 for JD Motorsports. He had a run of three Top 10 finishes coming into Kentucky last weekend. He got wrecked in the first Kentucky race and then ran a real conservative race in his back up car (which is his Texas car) and came home 21st in the second race. Expecting something around 20th-22nd is very reasonable and that would get you about 35-40 DK points -- easily exceeding the target 5x return.
• Josh Williams at $6,400 is also a strong play. I'm not sure why DK cut his salary this much as he's been in the $7k-8k range most of the season. For good reason. He's a solid, veteran driver who is unlikely to screw up. He starts 24th and should be good for at least +5 position difference barring any incidents. He already has four Top 15 finishes at the 1.5 mile tracks this year. Josh finished 14th in both Texas races last year. If he were to repeat that here, it's 40 DK points.
• Jess Little at $5,200 is also in play. He's finished in the Top 20 in the last eight races this season. If he just holds his 20th starting spot, that's 24 DK points -- which is fine at this salary. I kind of see him as the lowest you can safely go in cash games. Some might consider Kyle Weatherman at $5,100 starting 33rd, but I don't have a good handle on when to expect them to run a full race. It's a much riskier situation with him because the equipment isn't as reliable and we don't know what they intend to do. Stefan Parsons at $4,800 might also get some consideration. But, again, that is much less reliable equipment and that team has several finishes of 30th or worse this year due to equipment issues. I wouldn't say you can't use those guys -- just understand the added risk that comes with them.
• I'm adding David Starr at $4,900 as a reasonable extreme salary saver play. He's in the #07 car which is generally more reliable than the cars Weatherman and Parsons are in. Starr is also a veteran driver in the Series who has seen it all. This should be around a 20th place car with him behind the wheel.  
• The group from $6,300 - $7,100 offers a number of solid plays.
  • Joe Graf Jr. has been really good lately at the 1.5 mile tracks with three Top 16 finishes in the last four races at those tracks.
  • I don't remember ever seeing Ryan Sieg under $7k and he's got some upside starting 18th. He's been up and down but the car usually has Top 10-12 speed. He finished 10th in both Texas races last year. And, in the last six Texas races, he's not finished worse than 20th.
  • Brandon Brown is a lot like Sieg. In seven races at 1.5 mile tracks this season, he's finished in the Top 15 five times. He can be a little volatile though, so be aware of the risk.
  • Brett Moffitt might be slightly more reliable than Sieg or Brown, but he's also slightly more expensive and starts a bit further forward so comes with more downside if something goes wrong.
  • Timmy Hill starts 27th and I have this guy on my target list almost every week. The main reason is he's very unlikely to screw up and his equipment seems to be getting more reliable -- especially when he's in the #61 car. The price is probably creeping too high, though, for someone who really can't finish much higher than 20th unless all hell breaks loose.
• Once again, Tommy Joe Martins is just sitting out there looking like he's in play starting 36th, but I can't do it in a cash game. I say it week after week, the car has speed but breaks down literally every week. Until the thing can stay together for a complete race, I just can't see it.
• Justin Haley and Anthony Alfredo should both be Top 10 cars and are very reasonably priced. Haley has made some enemies with hard racing and probably overly aggressive stuff the last few races, so pay back could be coming at any time. That said, the Kaulig cars usually seem to finish better then they ran all race long when the dust settles. Alfredo seems to be getting more comfortable and his car is fast. He has three Top 6 finishes in the last four races at 1.5 mile tracks.
• Jeremy Clements starting 22nd should have the speed to go +10 position difference.
• How can you not love Austin Cindric the way his car has been at the 1.5 mile tracks! I've been talking about his speed there all season long and he finally made it through last weekend at Kentucky without making mistakes and no one could touch him. He scored 91 and 123 DK points in those two races. Texas has a lot of similarities in that it is mostly a one groove race track and there isn't a lot of tire wear and fall off because the surface is still pretty new. It's most likely that Austin leads this race early as I don't think Michael Annett or Jeb Burton will have the speed to hold him off for more than a lap or two. Let's just hope they don't wreck into each other or Austin. If you can make him work with Kyle, you should have the two best cars in the field and I'd expect them to combine to lead 80%+ of this race.

Good Kentucky week. Hit 3 of 4 in cash games.

Just wanted to quickly update with plans for this week. I will NOT be posting anything for the All Star Race. Also, I'm seeing rumblings that Texas is in doubt next weekend due to COVID. Hope they can figure something out and stay safe. I'll have coverage whenever we have the next points race -- whether it be next weekend or beyond. Take care.

Sunday Morning Update - I'm trending away from Kyle Busch. Really hate the Lap 20 caution and the chance for someone to jump him on pit road. Also no guarantee he leads at all since Logano is one of the best drivers on the restarts.

Update #2 - Truex and Kenseth to the rear for failed inspection.

Let's turn the page on that Trucks race. It was a fluky race and a nightmare for most from a Fantasy NASCAR perspective. About the only thing we can take from it are that it's really, really hard to pass near the front of the field. And there are some strategy options available to get track position. So keep those things in mind heading into Sunday.

Looking back at last year's Kentucky race, we saw pit road decisions and mistakes were a critical factor. With how important track position is, and how little speed fall off there is in the tire, we could see some 2-tire or fuel only stops throughout the race. And being mistake free on pit road will be essential. All of that leads to a little more variance because it's impossible to predict what strategies everyone will use and when someone will make a mistake or have something crazy happen on pit road. Just look back at Indy last week where we had a super speedway style "Big One" on pit road.

What to do with Kyle Busch?

• I think you've got to take the chance and play him. Last year, we had a 47 lap green flag run to start the race and the pole sitter, Daniel Suarez, led all 47 laps. Aric Almirola started 2nd and he was still 2nd at the end of that run. In fact, the Top 5 at the end of that run all started the race in positions 1-5. So it's very likely Kyle leads for a while early. The Lap 20 competition caution could mix things up a bit, but even if it does, Kyle could cycle back to the lead down the road. He's got a top pit crew and he's finished in the Top 5 here in four of the last five races. He'll probably be highly owned, so there's also risk in not using him if he goes off for a big day.

What to do with Christopher Bell?

• He starts 34th and is $11,200 on Draft Kings. Let's assume for a second that he won't lead laps or get more than a handful of fastest laps. In that case, he needs to finish 11th or better to hit 5x return. It is doable even with this package and track making it hard to pass. There are strategy options with pit timing and tires that can help with track position. In last year's race, three guys who started outside the Top 20 finished in the Top 10. They were Erik Jones (21st to 3rd), Ryan Newman (35th to 9th) and Chris Buescher (25th to 10th). It's really a question of whether you want more safety with no upside over a 5x return from Bell or if you want to shoot for a similarly priced potential dominator like Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott or even Ryan Blaney. Bell was very, very good at this track in the Xfinity Series.

What salary savers are the best targets?

• Michael McDowell -- I don't really understand DK pricing here. McDowell has been performing very, very well, and is very highly owned every week because of it, but DK is leaving his price alone. Starting 30th for only $5,700, this seems like an obvious and popular play. A finish of 23rd or better hits the 5x return.
• Cole Custer -- He was great here in the Xfinity Series and seems to be coming on now in the Cup Series. He's now finished 17th or better three weeks in a row. And he's had very good + position difference showings at Pocono and Indianapolis -- both of which are also very hard places to make on track passes. $6,900 is starting to get up there and he'll need to finish inside the Top 20 to hit value.
• Ryan Newman -- I don't know why he's only $6,100. He's hard to pass to begin with and doubly so on a track like this. Last year, they played strategy by staying out extra long on a green flag run and that was key to helping him go from the 35th starting spot to a 9th place finish. On Sunday, he starts 23rd so we're looking for an 18th or better to hit value.
• Ryan Preece -- I could also see Preece as a more conservative pivot off Newman. Preece starts 32nd so is less likely than Newman to kill your lineup if something goes wrong. Last year, Preece started this race 29th and finished 21st and we'd be hoping for something similar this time.
• John Hunter Nemechek -- He's only $5,300 but he starts 22nd, so this is extra risky considering how erratic Nemechek can be at times. To his credit, though, he's been pretty reliable of late with a lot of Top 20 finishes since the season resumed. If you need the extra savings to spend up for a guy you really like, go for it.

What mid tier guys are viable for cash games? I'd say the group from $8,000 to $8,600 are the targets here.

• Matt Kenseth -- The Ganassi cars have been really good here the last few years. Kurt Busch won last year and Kyle Larson was 4th. In 2018, Busch was 6th and Larson was 9th. So he should have a good setup to go off of. It's a stretch to expect a Top 10 from Kenseth, but it is possible. Think 12th or so, which is a couple points shy of a 5x return. He's coming off a season best 2nd place finish at Indianapolis, so maybe he's feeling more comfortable and confident and is ready to step it up a bit.
• Tyler Reddick -- Impressive again last week. Starts 24th, so there's some considerable upside here. The RCR cars of Austin Dillon and Daniel Hemric were good here last year, but Dillon had a mechanical issue and Hemric got a green flag pit road stop and go penalty that killed his race. 
• Eric Jones -- Here we go again. He's finished 6th, 7th and 3rd in his three Cup Series races at Kentucky. So the speed is absolutely there. But the mistakes are absolutely there too. Top 5 upside, with a whole lot of risk. These are his finishes the last four races -- 5th, 38th, 3rd, 33rd. That says it all.
• William Byron -- He had worked his way into the Top 5 with less than 100 laps to go in this race last year and then got busted for jumping a restart. He had a pass thru penalty and finished a lap down in 18th place. We saw last week that Chad Knaus is still pretty good at the whole strategy thing as he got Byron on the front row before a tire failure killed their day. Starting 21st, there's some really good upside here. On the flip side, though, the Hendrick cars have not done well at Kentucky lately. The team's best finishes the last two races here were by Chase Elliott, who was 15th last year and 13th in 2018.

I'm still looking at bets. Will update if anything looks really good to me. I think the market has caught up and is pretty close to spot on lately, so not as much has been jumping out to me lately.