Well, with the ridiculous post-qualifying inspection fiasco, we can really throw all the prior analysis out the window.  I think things here for a cash game, 50/50, double up, etc. are pretty straight forward.  You want a team full of guys starting 28th or worse.  There's a ton of good cars back there and several good combinations are available.  Also, there's no need for extreme salary savers, so just ignore everyone below Bubba Wallace at $6,100 on DK and $6,500 on FD.

As for some specific names, Kevin Harvick (starting 29th) and Kyle Busch (28th) obviously offer the most upside.  They had qualified on the front row before their q times were disallowed.  And they both showed very good overall speed in practice.  So they have great position difference upside to go along with a realistic chance of leading laps and running fastest laps at some point.  Harvick in particular was the class of the field throughout the day.

All of the cars starting 30th on back are in play as well.  The first choice is to decide if you want one or both of Harvick and Kyle.  Then fill in with the guys starting behind them.  Of those, Clint Bowyer (31st), Ryan Blaney (33rd), Aric Almirola (34th) and Joey Logano (30th) seemed to have the best cars throughout practice on Saturday.  You probably can't take them all, but there are plenty of moderately priced guys like Paul Menard (36th), Austin Dillon (37th), William Byron (38th), Bubba Wallace (39th) and Kasey Kahne (40th) there as well.

I could see an argument for using Martin Truex in a cash game as well.  He starts 8th and looked very strong throughout the final practice.  I think there's a pretty decent chance he takes the lead and gets some laps led and fastest lap points early on in the race.  But for the salary you have to pay, I think there is both less risk and more upside in using Harvick or Busch over Truex.  I think Truex is a better tournament play where he should be a bit lower owned and still could go off and dominate the race.

An overall note -- I think this might be a week to put less money in for two reasons.  First, there is going to be a ton of identical or similar cash game lineups.  Everyone will use Harvick, probably Busch and some combinations of the guys starting 30th-40th.  So, the scores are all going to be very similar and compressed into a very narrow scoring band.  If it's as compressed as I'm thinking it will be, one or two positions by one of your drivers could literally be the difference between being 1st in the contest versus totally out of the money.  It will be like a plate race where everyone rosters a bunch of guys starting toward the back, only there won't be 3-4 "Big Ones" to spread out the field and differentiate the entries.

Second, our advantage of superior research and preparation is largely gone when we see an "inverted" field like this because the proper plays are so obvious and everyone will have them.  Under this scenario, I prefer to play less money overall and to do a higher percentage in large tournaments where you can use contrarian strategies (like Truex or the Ryan Newman idea I offered in the notes earlier this week) to differentiate yourself and shoot for a great result.

Good luck!

 A few notes on the stand alone xfinity race in Iowa on Saturday:

• I'm looking for Christopher Bell or Justin Allgaier to win this race.  Allgaier won the first Iowa race this year in early June.  He led 182 of 250 laps and had 53 fastest laps.  Bell started from the rear in June, but finished second, led 2 laps and had a race best 55 fastest laps.  (I think laps led in June would have been much closer had Bell not started in the rear.)
  
• In the July race last year, Ryan Preece won, leading 141 laps and driving 67 fastest laps.  The wrinkle there is that Bell did not run in that race and that Preece was in the same #20 car that Bell is in this year.  In that July race last year, Allgaier finished second, led 106 laps and had 24 fastest laps.  So, these two cars have really dominated the last two races.
  
• Also, in the June race last year, Bell won in the #20 car, while leading 152 laps and scoring 66 fastest laps.  So the #20 car has had the most fastest laps in the last three races and has won two of those races.  Allgaier ran 9th with 5 laps led last June.
  
• Kyle Benjamin is in great equipment (the #18 of Joe Gibbs Racing, Bell's teammate) and has a good price.  The issue with him is consistency.  He's raced here twice and started 2nd both times.  Once he led a few laps and finished 2nd for a great day.  The other time he finished 31st.  He's probably too risky to use in cash games if he starts up front.  But I would use him in all formats if he doesn't qualify well and he is a decent tournament game play even if he starts up front.
• Matt Tifft was showing consistent/long run speed in practice.  He is an option in all formats.
  
• Ross Chastain has finished in the Top 20 at Iowa six times in a row.  Solid cash game play.
  
• Ryan Sieg has finished in the Top 20 in eight of the last nine Iowa races.  The other time he finished 21st.  Another solid cash game option.
  
• Michael Annett does very little with good cars, but he's Allgaier's teammate and should have a real good set up for this race.  He's done pretty well at Iowa, so he is definitely a strong option as long as he's not starting in the Top 15.
  
• David Starr has outperformed his salary at Iowa.  He's finished between 14th - 26th in the last six Iowa races -- which is a great return for a $5,900 salary.
  
• Elliott Sadler, Blake Jones and Casey Roderick are additional tournament only options.
  
• If any other competent series regulars -- for example, Hemric, Custer, Reddick, Truex, Reed or Cindric -- fail pre-qualifying inspection and have an official starting spot in the rear, they would likely be a must play in cash games and a good target (although highly owned) in tournaments as well.
• There's a very short time between the end of qualifying and the race this week, so I won't be able to update anything with starting spot information.

160 laps at Pocono, so fewer then normal points available on DK for laps led (40 total available) and fastest laps (80 total available).  We have had one driver lead about half the laps in each of the last three races.  Kyle Busch did so twice and Kevin Harvick once.  This track also allows for real good position difference potential because cars can pass off Turn 3 or into Turn 1 and varying pit strategies are in play to gain track position.

Here's my initial list of drivers I'm most interested in going into the race weekend.  Many familiar names up top:

• Kyle Busch -- In the last three Pocono races, he's been on pole twice and has finished 3rd (13 laps led), 1st (74 laps led) and 9th (100 laps led).  Especially after the race ending last week, he's likely to run up front and has as much Dominator potential as anyone.
  
• Harvick -- He led 89 of 160 laps at Pocono in the June race this year.  In the last five, he's finished 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 4th and 9th.  There has to be some concern about retaliation from the #18, but I'm not too worried about that.  What Harvick did last week really wasn't all that bad or noteworthy and I'm sure Kyle recognized that after the heat of the moment was past.  I do expect the #4 and #18 to both be up front Sunday.  While I expect the #18 to race the #4 very aggressively, I don't have much concern that he would purposely wreck him like, say, Kenseth did Logano several years back.  There's no need for the #18 to escalate the situation as the playoffs approach.  Harvick, too, has as much Dominator potential as anyone.
  
• Truex -- Who would have imagined these three at the top of the list?  In the last three Pocono races, Truex has started no worse than 4th and finished 1st (31 laps led), 3rd (31 laps led) and 6th (5 laps led).  Again, I expect him to be running up front with strong Dominator potential.
  
• Keselowski -- On to a few guys a step below the Big Three.  Keselowski has been as steady as they come at Pocono, which is what we want in a cash game.  In the last six races, he's finished 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 5th, 5th and 5th.  He's only led 38 of 900+ total laps in those races, but he does have some good position difference numbers.  Depending on salary and starting spot, he might become a very good option.  Possibly a stronger option on FanDuel, where laps led points aren't as big a factor.
  
• Aric Almirola -- He just looks so strong right now.  A win has to be coming sooner or later.  In eleven Pocono races with Richard Petty Motorsports, Almirola's best finish was 18th -- and that race was the only race where he finished better than 20th while at RPM.  Fast forward to his new team and the race a few weeks ago.  He started 34th, but finished 7th.  Very much in play depending on salary and starting spot.
  
• Matt Kenseth -- Showed some signs of life last week starting 31st, but finishing 15th.  He ran in the Rousch #6 car in the June Pocono race and started 26th, but finished 13th.  Prior to that, in his last six Pocono races with Joe Gibbs Racing, he had 5 Top 10 finishes, with a low of 17th.  Could be a good option again.
  
• Ryan Newman -- This is probably a large tournament option only, but this team is mired at 19th in points -- nearly 80 points under the playoff cut line.  RCR has a history of stretching a fuel run to make one less pit stop and pull off a surprise victory.  Pocono sometimes offers an opportunity to use an off base pit strategy.  If that comes up on Sunday, expect the #31 team to take a gamble to go for the race win they so desperately need to make the playoffs.
• Ty Dillon -- This guy always scares me.  But, in his five Cup series races here, he's finished 23rd (+6 positions), 17th (+13 positions), 18th (+9 positions), 21st (+7 positions) and 18th (+11 positions).  That's pretty damn good for what his salary should be.
  
• David Ragan -- Another salary saver option.  In his three races at Pocono with his current Front Row Motorsports team, he's finished 16th (+5 positions), 22nd (+11 positions) and 25th (+6 positions).
  
• Corey LaJoie -- Might be an option if you choose extreme salary save -- which I generally recommend only for a large tournament.  LaJoie is shown in the entry list for the #72.  He did not run the June race, but he did run both races last year in the #23.  In those two races he finished 25th (+9 positions) and 28th (+7 positions).  Again, a solid return for what should be a minimal salary.
  

As always, we'll have more as the race weekend approaches and goes along.  We'll post a few Xfinity notes again this week too. 

It's a tough week to build a cash game lineup.  As we highlighted yesterday, there is no clear cut Dominator and there are many mid-field options at various salaries.  Here's the approach I'm taking right now on both Draft Kings and Fan Duel:

• I want Harvick starting 14th.  He looked very good in practice Saturday and is a Top 5 car with race winning upside.
  
• I think you also want Truex or Kyle Busch.  I'm was leaning Busch yesterday, but I'm over to a very slight Truex lean after practice today.  He had the best "average speed" over all laps run in final practice.  He also had the second best 10-lap average behind Harvick.  When TV went to the low shot off the corner, I really liked how good his car looked coming off the corner.  It looked like he had great "forward bite".  And he's led 100+ laps in four straight New Hampshire races.  That said, nothing at all wrong with going Busch here.  He won the last race here and has led lots of laps in recent races.  He was very close behind in the overall average and 10-lap average charts.
  
• Next, I would grab a top driver starting mid-pack from the group of Larson, Logano and Johnson.  I'm leaning towards Logano based on price, consistency and good upside.  Larson is the most expensive and most volatile, but also offers the most upside.  Johnson is lower priced, but isn't likely to crack the Top 10.
• Then you can fill it out with guys from this list -- Kenseth, Kahne, Wallace, Dillon and Ragan.

Good luck!  And let's hope the rain holds off.

I'm going to hold most of my CUP analysis until after race practice on Saturday.  Just a few quick thoughts for tonight:

• Kenseth starting 31st puts him in play for sure.  Great history here, albeit with a much better team.  
• The group starting 18th-22nd is interesting -- Newman, Logano, Larson, Jimmie Johnson and Jamie McMurray.  All those guys have decent histories at New Hampshire and have the potential to be +10 position difference guys in the race.
• Harvick starting 14th and Bowyer starting 15th also offer good upside.
• At the front, multiple Dominator possibilities -- I think Kyle is most likely, but Truex has the 4 lap streak of 100+ laps led here, Hamlin has potential, Kurt might lead some at the beginning and it wouldn't shock me to see one of the Penskes lead at some point.
• In short, lots of different ways to go throughout the field.

Here are some guidelines for XFINITY lineups for Saturday.  I won't have time to update after qualifying Saturday morning, so you'll have to do a bit of work just before the race to get this right:
Guideline 1 -- Focus on the front row qualifiers

• The last six New Hampshire Xfinity races have been won from the pole.
• In the last four races, the pole sitter has led 77, 190, 145 and 152 out of 200 laps.  That's 71% of the laps run.
• Now add in the driver who qualified second.  Between the top two qualifiers, in the last four races, they've led a combined 179, 193, 170 and 186 out of 200 laps.  That's 91% of the laps run.
• So stock up on whoever starts 1st and 2nd.
• I'm pretty sure two of these three will be starting 1st and 2nd -- Brad Keselowski, Christopher Bell and Ryan Preece.  Invest heavily in any of them who starts up front.
• Other more expensive guys I feel comfortable with if they start up front are Cole Custer, Daniel Hemric and Elliot Sadler.
• On Keselowski, you want him no matter where he starts in all cash games and most tournament lineups.

Guideline 2 -- Get as much as you can from the Top 10 starters

• Don't expect many drivers starting past 10th to finish in the Top 10.  Last year, the lowest qualifying position for a Top 10 finisher was 13th.  In 2016, only one Top 10 finisher qualified outside the Top 10 (17th).  In 2015, the lowest qualifying position for a Top 10 finisher was 13th.  And in 2014, the lowest qualifying position for a Top 10 finisher was 16th.
• So stick with as many guys starting in the Top 15 as you can.

Guideline 3 -- Target these lower end guys

• If you follow 1 and 2, you're going to need some salary savers too.  My favorites are:  Jeremy Clements, Joey Gase, David Starr, Spencer Boyd and Chad Finchum.
• Do not use anyone priced at $5K or below.  They all likely have no intention of running a full race and will finish many laps down.

Here are some notes from recent New Hampshire races to help us key on a few guys heading into this weekend:

• Big surprise that Martin Truex and Kyle Busch have dominated here of late.
  
• Busch won last September and led 187 of 300 laps in that race.  He has finished Top 10 in eight of the last ten NH races, with two wins and three more second place finishes in that time.  So he's finished 1st or 2nd in five of the last ten races and has only two finishes outside the Top 10 in those ten races.  He has also led a total of more than 400 of the 1200 laps run in the last four races.
• Truex has led over 100 laps in each of the last four races.  However, his best finish is 3rd.  He's also finished 5th, 7th and 16th in those races.  He's also finished lower than his qualifying spot in three of those four races.  He has no wins at NH.
  
• Kevin Harvick has finished in the Top 5 in five of the last seven NH races -- with one win in that time.  He won the Sept. 2016 race, but only led 8 laps in that race.  He has not led any other laps in the last four races.
  
• Clint Bowyer had two nice runs here last year.  In the first race, he started 19th and finished 7th.  In the second race, he started 16th and finished 7th again.  His best race this year was on a shorter flat track at Martinsville -- where he led 215 laps on route to winning his first race in years.  There is Dominator potential here.
  
• Kyle Larson finished 2nd here in both races last year.  However, in eight career races at NH, he has only led a grand total of 16 laps.
  
• Daniel Suarez also had two nice runs here last year.  In the first race he started 14th and finished 6th.  In the second race he started 25th and finished 8th.  That's very good at a track where it can be difficult to pass.
  
• Eric Jones had a real good run in the last NH race, where he qualified 8th and finished 6th.  He is hot right now, with four straight Top 10 finishes coming into this weekend.
  
• Denny Hamlin has qualified in the Top 5 for six of the last eight races here.  But his finishes have not been so good.  He does have one win -- in July 2017, when he led 54 laps.  He also finished one of those races in 2nd.  Beyond that, however, he's finished 9th or worse despite a great starting spot.
  
• Matt Kenseth has five straight Top 5 finishes -- albeit in far superior equipment at Joe Gibbs Racing.  While I don't expect anywhere near a Top 5 run from the Roush team, he may be a value depending on his salary and qualifying spot.
• Ty Dillon should come cheap and he ran OK here last year.  In the first race, he started 25th and finished 16th.  In the second race, he started 30th and finished 22nd.  A similar performance would more than pay back his modest salary.
  

​More to come Friday and Saturday after the cars hit the track.

I wasn't thrilled with the way my approach worked out this week.  I really thought Harvick would pose a bigger challenge to Truex.  Usually when Harvick makes a real long run in practice, it means he's really happy with the car.  Maybe Truex was just that good and/or the conditions later in the day at race time were so different that Harvick's practice work didn't translate as well. 

Anyway, already working on New Hampshire and will have an early week update with the best recent New Hampshire stats.  I'll throw in a few Xfinity stats as well this week.

I had my best day of the year in Xfinity on Friday night (see graphic below).  I'm hoping to keep on a roll for the Cup race on Saturday night.  Here are my thoughts going into this race:

DraftKings

• For cash games, at the top of the roster, I'm most likely going to have Denny Hamlin (starting 36th due to failed qualifying tech inspection) plus two of the Big Three (Harvick, Truex and Kyle Busch).
• At the bottom of the roster, I'd take DiBenedetto (starting 37th due to failed qualifying tech inspection) and a couple other salary savers like William Byron, Bubba Wallace, Ty Dillon, AJ Allmendinger, Ross Chastain or Kasey Kahne.
• You could take a more balanced approach by pairing Hamlin with only one of the Big Three and then using someone like Clint Bowyer, Ryan Blaney and/or Jamie McMurray in your third and fourth slots.  Then fill with DiBenedetto and another cheap guy.  My concern with this approach is that I'm thinking we most likely see one or two of the Big Three dominate the race.  If they do so and you don't have the correct dominator(s) in your lineup, you're toast.
• In tournaments, I like trying the alternate Bowyer/Blaney strategy mentioned above.  Other tournament plays I'll use include Larson, Logano and Almirola.

FanDuel

• I'm thinking much the same way for FanDuel cash games.  Hamlin plus two of the Big Three.  Then grab DiBenedetto at minimum salary and take the best remaining guy for the salary you have left. 
• The alternate Blaney/Bowyer/McMurray strategy is there as well. 

Here's my Xfinity return.  There was more green below that didn't fit on one screen.  It was a great night.

Much more to come Friday after practice and qualifying, but here's some mid-week notes to get you started for the Kentucky race:

• Harvick, Truex and Kyle Busch have been animals on the 1.5 intermediate tracks this year.  Each is priced at $11K or more on DK this weekend and all are maxed out at $12.5K on FD.  That's appropriate in my view.
• Truex and Kyle Busch dominated here last year.  Truex won from the 2nd starting spot and led 152 of 274 laps.  Busch started from pole, finished 5th and led 112 of 274 laps.
• Also on Kyle Busch, he's finished in the Top 10 in 6 of the 7 Cup races at Kentucky.  He's never finished worse than 12th.  And he has two wins.
• Harvick has not been great at Kentucky.  In his four years at SHR, he has finished 7th one time, 8th one time and 9th twice.  In 2017, he started from pole and led 128 of 267 laps, but finished 9th.
• Brad Keselowski is one to watch here.  The has two wins in the last six races -- although two of those came before the recent repaves.  He did win in 2016 while leading 75 laps.  Last year, however, he was in an accident and finished 39th.  He has dominator potential and comes at a sizable salary discount off the Big Three.
• Joey Logano has finished in the Top 10 in four of the last five Kentucky races.
• Jamie McMurray has finished 7th the last two years and may be a good mid-range option depending on qualifying position.
• Bubba Wallace ran well last year in his only Kentucky Cup race.  He started 17th and finished 11th.

​Check back for more Friday night.

Have I mentioned how much I dislike plate races?  I don't like them from a fantasy standpoint and I really think they are stupid overall.  What other sport does things to minimize its most talented stars and puts random chance as the biggest deciding factor in it's biggest events?  I just don't get it.  And why do the owners put up with all the money wasted on super speedway cars?

Anyway, many of my DK and FD entries were taken out by the one man wrecking crew in the 17.  Made a few crumbs back, so not all was lost, but a net negative on the week for the first time in quite a while.

We're already researching Kentucky and look forward to getting back on track next weekend.