I started this blog to provide a casual, recreational level of fantasy NASCAR advice and discussion. I've been playing these contests for a number of years and am annoyed by lineup sellers and groups of players using the same lineup. I'm hoping to give the casual player some help in building solid lineups that can beat that annoying crowd most of the time. I'm not a "tout" and don't do this for a living, so proceed accordingly. I hope you enjoy the discussion here and Good Luck!
I talk about it more in Trucks below, but track conditions are going to be real tough with the heat and traction compound. So we want to anchor the lineup with by far the best driver in the field -- Kyle Busch. From there, we can look at these options--
I think there's a decent chance this race turns into a caution filled wreck fest. First, NASCAR scheduled a race to start at noon in Texas in the middle of June. It's supposed to by sunny with the temperature starting at 90 and going up from there. It's going to be unbearably hot which is going to make the track slick as hell. Second, we've got the goofy traction compound in the outside groove and, as we saw in the first Charlotte practice a few weeks ago, that stuff is like ice when it's not worn in. With no practice or anything before this race, the traction compound is probably going to be a "no go" area for most drivers. Third, we've got the least talented of the fields with a lot of aggressive drivers. It's all a recipe for a likely disaster.
As far as DFS is concerned, I see this as a stars and scrubs race. We've got four really great plays up top, not a whole lot in the middle to be excited about and then some rides we can tolerate at the lowest end of the salary scale.
The reason I'm taking this approach is the guys in the mid-range just don't do it for me. Brennan Poole is an option, but this is his first race of the year -- which worries me with no practice. He also tends to be pretty aggressive which could go wrong in a hurry at Texas. A guy like Josh Berry is just too expensive for the truck he is in. This is 15th-20th place equipment at best.
Crafton -120 Dollar
Nemechek -125 Elliott
C. Smith -105 Dollar
Quick flashback to last week. I got my second tournament takedown at a road course this season, winning $1,500 in the single entry $24 Rainbow contest. I also won $20,000 in the big GPP for the Truck race at the Daytona road course in February. Not sure if I'm onto a winning strategy at road courses or if it's coincidental. The winning lineup this time was Kyle Larson, Martin Truex, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Ryan Preece and Scott Heckert. You'll notice five of those guys were in my free preview article last weekend. Also nailed +145 and +275 bets last Sunday. It was a very profitable day.
I'm not resting on last week though. Here's a few quick mid-week plays where the odds will probably get worse as Sunday nears, so I've locked them in now. The Chevys have been so strong at the low horsepower tracks and there's been public speculation that Hendrick and RCR have found a way to get some extra HP out of those engines, which is making them so fast at these tracks. We're all the way down to 510 HP this week, so we don't know for sure if they'll still have an advantage, but I'd still say they're the clear favorites. This race is likely to be wild, so I'd shy away from the top favorites and take a chance on these longer odds plays in the Chevys--
Here are my notes for Sunday's Cup race. As usual, I'm focused on a cash game lineup and approach. I think we've got a pretty chalky slate on our hands with a number of obvious, popular plays. I'll cover those and then talk about a few pivots if you want to be a little different.
I think a lot of lineups are going to start with the trio of Martin Truex, Kurt Busch and Chase Briscoe.
Other popular plays
It's a pretty small group of guys I'm interested in for cash games. Here's the list:
Bets I've Played
So happy to have starting positions the day before. Let's get right to it.
Bets I am playing this weekend--
I can't wait to write about Cup on Saturday night when we will have qualifying spots nailed down the day before the race. As I said with Trucks, same day qualifying really limits what I can do.
I wish I could give you all some better advice, but the same day qualifying really limits what I can do. Best thing I can do is give you some thoughts on a bunch of guys I'll be looking to use so you have options once you know qualifying spots--
Practice at 11:30 (Eastern), qualifying at 5:30 and race at 8:30. You've got to check practice and qualifying results before finalizing your lineup. If I have time, I might throw up a quick update, but no guaranties.
It's just so tough to give any real concrete advice with same day qualifying. Like the Trucks and Xfinity race, I think it's best to target guys you think can give you at least 8-10 position difference points. There's enough laps in the Cup race (and we've seen very few cautions so far this weekend) to where targeting laps led and fastest laps could work. But with the way strategies and stage breaks work out, this can get really risky.
Here are some specific targets I have in mind heading into qualifying--
I can't do a whole lot worthwhile with Trucks or Xfinity. We're probably going to have qualifying in the wet weather, so anything can happen. Obviously, if good drivers mess up something in qualifying they are going to be great position difference plays. With stage breaks and cautions, there are so few dominator points out there that it makes the most sense to try to stack solid drivers who you think can gain 5-8 spots or so. Finishing position and positions gained are the key for tomorrow.
The best I can really do is give you a couple of lists of guys I'll really be watching in qualifying and be looking to roster depending on their starting position. I'm not going to include your top guys like Nemechek and Creed for Trucks or Cindric and Allmendinger for Xfinity.
My name is Steve and I've won thousands playing NASCAR fantasy racing games. This blog will share my advice for enjoying and winning your fantasy racing games. I'm also a NASCAR writer at the motor sports website slicksandsticks.com