I try to be as honest and transparent as I can be every week and this week that leads me in a little different direction for the final update.  The bottom line is that this race is terrible for cash game plays and I'm playing very little this weekend.  On top of the uncertainty with the new track, we've got what would otherwise be key cash game targets like Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski and Eric Jones all starting from the rear but being credited with mid-field starting spots.  We've also got a mix of guys who will be ultra aggressive because they are below the cut and need to win or have some bizarre results to advance to the next round.  And on top of all that, we've got ultra aggressive drivers like AJ Allmendinger and Jamie McMurray who have no ride for next year and may throw caution to the wind in hopes of scoring a victory on their way out the door.  I don't like the mix at all.

With all that out of the way, here are the guys I am mostly focused on for the few cash game contests I am going to enter:

• Kyle Busch -- Great road course record, good speed throughout the weekend and a 14th starting position to offer position difference upside.
• Truex -- Much the same as Busch, but with 13th starting spot.  I'll take Busch over Truex, but not by much.
• Keselowski -- Hate that he's going to the rear.  But he was fast today and gets credited with the 25th starting spot, so still decent upside there.  I do have some concern that they Paul Wolfe might gamble on a strategy to win since BK is already locked into the next round.  But still hard to go wrong at $9,800.
• Michael McDowell -- Only $6,100 and a good shot at a Top 20 finish -- although limited position difference upside from 18th starting spot.
• Justin Marks -- Experienced road course racer who finished 2nd in the Xfinity race on Saturday.  Only $6,000 and offers some position difference upside starting 31st.

Good luck.  Please don't over do it this race.

Should be a crazy weekend and very difficult to predict with no track history whatsoever.  109 laps, so just over 25 laps led points and 50 fastest lap points are out there.  Looking at the most recent Sonoma and Watkins Glen road course races, we tend to see two or three drivers getting the bulk of those extra points.  We've tended to see one guy lead about 1/3-1/2 of the race with one or two other guys leading about 1/4 of the race and then a few more leading a handful of laps.  There tends to be a similar distribution of fastest laps.  So, we'd like to get some of those extra points in our lineup, but position difference and a solid finishing position are going to be most critical this weekend.

Here are some guys I am focusing on heading into the weekend:

• Kyle Busch $11,400 DK -- Top 7 finish in the last 6 road course races with laps led in 5 of those 6 races.  Probably the most consistent road course racer in the Series.
• Martin Truex $11,100 DK -- 1st, 1st and 2nd in the last three road course races with 90 total laps led in those races.  He is the closest we've seen to a repeat Dominator at recent road course races.
• Chase Elliott $10,500 DK -- Won the last road course race at Watkins Glen while leading 52 laps.  Has Top 13 finishes in his last 5 road course races.  But he's awfully pricey.
• Kurt Busch $9,000 DK -- Top 10 finishes in 5 of the last 6 road course races with an 11th place finish in the one other road course race.  He's finished 7th, 6th, 6th and 9th at the last four road course races with a total +66 position difference in those four races.
• Clint Bowyer $9,500 DK -- In his last four road course races since joining SHR, he's finished 2nd, 5th, 3rd and 11th -- although he has no laps led in those races.  He's a bit pricey, but is likely to deliver a Top 10 finish.
• Daniel Suarez $8,100 DK -- He's been strong in his 4 road course races since joining the Cup Series.  He has finished of 16th, 3rd, 15th and 4th.
• Eric Jones $7,400 DK -- I don't know why he's priced so low.  He's with a powerhouse team and has finished 10th, 7th and 5th in the last three road course races.
• Alex Bowman $7,100 DK -- Finished 9th and 14th with +16 position difference in the two road course races this year.  Another potential value play from a rock solid team.
• Chris Buescher $6,700 -- AJ Allmendinger gets all the acclaim as a road course guy, but his teammate Buescher has outperformed him in the last two seasons.  Buescher has finished 19th, 11th, 12th and 20th in the last four road course races.  He's potentially a strong value option this week.
• Michael McDowell $6,100 DK -- Another potential value option.  McDowell has finished in the Top 21 at the last five road course races.  His finishes are 17th, 14th, 12th, 21st and 18th.  The only downside is that he tends to qualify pretty well too, so his position difference upside tends to be limited.

More to follow as we move closer to race day.

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE
There was no tech inspection before qualifying, so it will all be done on Saturday.  That means you have to check what happens with inspection because if a car fails even one time, its qualifying time is disallowed and it will start from the back.  But it will also get an official starting spot in the back which is potentially big for position difference.  I don't expect mass failures here, but there will probably be a couple and those guys might become near must play guys.

Here's what I like as things sit now:

• Clint Bowyer starting 25th.  He has a Top 10 quality car and this is typically a good track for him, so I think he will be a cash game staple.
• Kevin Harvick from the pole.  I like Harvick to be one of the Dominators and lead a whole bunch of laps Saturday night.  His salary is way up there at $12,100, so we'll need to find some values to fit him in.
• Joey Logano starting 13th.  This is a Top 5 quality car and it's a good price at $8,700.  Pretty close to a cash game lock pending value that arises after inspection.
• Chase Elliott and Jimmie Johnson are very interesting because they start 19th and 22nd respectively.  But, both have really struggled though this weekend so I'm not sure what to really expect for them.  Do they have a set-up that will work at night but is bad during the daylight?  Or are they just lacking speed?  If I had to pick one of these guys, I'd go with Johnson.  In the last two races here, he's struggled early on qualifying 17th and 20th, but rallied for 6th and 8th finishing positions.  And he has a much lower salary at $7,900, which gives you the flexibility to upgrade another spot on your roster.
• William Byron, Ty Dillon, Ross Chastain and Corey Lajoie are some value/punt plays I have some interest in.

ORIGINAL POST
Race Two of the playoffs will be at Richmond on Saturday night.  First some general strategy pointers for the week then onto some preliminary driver targets.

Strategy

• We've got 400 laps this week, so 200 points for fastest laps and 100 points for laps led are available.
• In recent Richmond races, we've tended to have 2 Dominators per race that lead the most laps.  In April 2017, 2 Dominators led 164 and 110 laps.  In September 2017, 2 Dominators led 198 and 89 laps.  In Spring 2018, there were 3 Dominators up there with 121, 98 and 92 laps led.
• The pole position driver tends to be one of the laps led Dominators.  In the last five races here, the pole sitter has led 121, 89, 164, 189 and 63 laps.
• Fastest laps have tended to be more spread out and were very spread out in the Spring race this year.  In that race, there were 11 drivers with 15-40 fastest laps.  The most any driver had was 39.  So that's less than 20 points to the top driver in the fastest laps category.  In September 2017, we had one driver with 84 fastest laps and a group of six drivers with 15-41 fastest laps.  In April 2017, we had one driver with 100 fastest laps, another with 54 and then a group of six more with 10-30 fastest laps.  So those points tend to be pretty spread out.
• To have a winning lineup this week, I think we'll need at least one of the laps led Dominators (we'll try to get both) and several other guys who pick up some fastest laps.
• Another interesting thing I'm seeing this week is a pretty clear line between drivers who consistently do well here and those who don't.  For example, of the drivers who finished in the Top 15 in the Spring race, 11 of them also finished in the Top 15 in September 2017 race.  And 10 of them finished in the Top 15 in the April 2017 race.  And 8 drivers -- over half the list -- finished in the Top 15 in all three of those races.  Those are the guys we will need to be most focused on.

Driver Targets

• Denny Hamlin -- 6 straight finishes in the Top 6 with one win in that span.  He led 189 laps in the September 2016 race and 59 in April 2017.  $9,600 on DK is a very good price for that kind of performance.
• Joey Logano -- 9 straight Top 10 finishes with 2 wins in that span.  In the last three races here, he's finished 1st, 2nd and 4th.  In Spring, he started 3rd, led 92 laps (11 fastest laps) and finished 4th.  He's also coming into this race with three Top 4 finishes in the last four races this year.  He is crazily under priced at $8,700 DK.
• Kurt Busch -- Led 98 laps in the Spring race.  Has Top 10 finishes in 8 of the last 11 races here with 1 win in the time span.  Another relative bargain at $8,500 DK.
• Jimmie Johnson -- 8 straight Top 11 finishes, but he hasn't led a lap here since April 2016.  DK is begging you to roster him at $7,900.
• Daniel Suarez -- Has finished 12th, 7th and 10th with a collective +24 position difference in three Cup Series races at Richmond.  Only $7,500 DK.
• William Byron -- Started 9th and finished 12th in his only Cup Series race here in the Spring.  Only $6,800 DK.
• Clint Bowyer at $9,100 DK, Eric Jones at $9,300 DK and Aric Almirola at $8,300 DK also offer the potential for great value depending on starting spot.  None of them have a great record here, but each is talented and with a top team.
• Kyle Busch -- He won the Spring race carving through the field from the 32nd starting spot.  He has Top 10 finishes in 5 of the last 6 races here, but he has not been a laps led Dominator since leading 235 laps in April 2011.  He would need to really improve on the laps led to pay off his $11,800 DK price tag.
• Kevin Harvick -- Much the same could be said for Harvick.  He's finished 5th in 4 of the last 5 races here.  But, he too has not been a laps led Dominator since leading 202 laps in September 2011.  Will need to reverse that trend to pay off his top shelf $12,200 DK salary.
• Martin Truex -- He has led the most laps in the last two Richmond races with 121 led in the Spring and 198 led last Fall.  But, he's finished 14th and 20th in those two races.  In Fall 2016, he led 193 laps and finished 3rd.  At $11,000 DK, he's the most affordable of the Big Three and the most likely to pay off his salary based on recent Dominator performance.
• Corey LaJoie, Matt DiBenedetto and Ross Chastain are the punt plays I'm most interested in heading into the weekend.

Could be a fun race on Sunday with a hot, slick track.  All things considered, here are my top cash game plays for the week:

• Harvick -- Crushed the field here in March, looked strong in practice on Saturday and has a good starting spot.
• Truex -- Under $10K on DK, so a big discount off Harvick and Kyle Busch.  He was 3rd in 10 lap average and 2nd in overall average (with 48 -- the most -- laps run) in final practice.  Starts 10th so offers some position difference upside.  And he's finished 4th or better in 6 of the 7 races run on 1.5 mile tracks this year.
• Clint Bowyer -- Starts 15th.  Was 3rd on the overall average speed chart with 44 laps run in final practice.  I like his stability and upside much better than the other guys starting in the high teens and low 20s.
• Aric Almirola -- Starts 16th and is under priced at $8,100 DK.  He's been real solid at the 1.5 mile tracks this year and should be a Top 10 car on Sunday.
• Larson, Keselowski, Jones, Newman and Menard were also considered, but sit a cut below these guys for me.  On Jones, I just think he's too risky to play in a cash game because I don't think he'll be able to hold off the top cars starting behind him for too long.  I don't think he's necessarily a bad play at his salary.  And he still could lead a bunch of laps.  I'm just worried the points hit you are likely to take for losing positions will outweigh whatever he gets for leading laps.
  
• I think Kyle Busch is too expensive and did not show enough Dominator potential to justify the salary.  He was 9th in 10 lap average and 10th in overall average speed in final practice.  I intend to fade him in cash games and would reserve him for GPPs.
• Of the cheaper "punt" options, I'm most interested in David Ragan and Ross Chastain.  Ragan has been real solid on the 1.5 mile tracks this year -- finishing all but one of those seven races in the Top 25.  He finished 23rd earlier this year at Vegas and 18th at the last 1.5 mile track.  Chastain has finished all 7 1.5 mile track races this year inside the Top 30.
• On the punt side, Landon Cassill and Corey LaJoie are also viable (although less preferred) options for me.

As a NASCAR fan, I'm very excited for the playoffs.  It will be fun to watch how the Big 3 do and who might join them as top championship contenders.  Keselowski is hot going into the tournament so it will be interesting to see what he can do.  Lots of people turning their attention to fantasy football right now, but I hope we still see people interested in our NASCAR stuff.  It's a great time for fantasy sports -- stretch run in NASCAR and baseball all while football ramps up.  Here's our top list of guys to focus on heading into the weekend:

• Kevin Harvick -- Absolutely punked the field earlier this year in Vegas -- although he was penalized post-race for the collapsing rear window deal.  He also dominated the 2015 Vegas race when he started 18th, but finished 1st while leading 142 laps.  So he's been THE GUY in two of the last four Vegas races.  Has 3 wins and 6 Top 5 finishes in the 7 races at 1.5 mile tracks this season.
• Kyle Busch -- Has not won here since 2009 and has a grand total of 100 laps led in the last five races here.  Harvick is $500 cheaper on DK and looks like the better cash game option heading into the weekend based on salary and recent history at this track.  But, KB has finished in the Top 10 in all 7 races on 1.5 mile tracks this year and has 3 wins in those races.  So Harvick and Busch combined to win 6 of the 7 races on the 1.5 mile tracks so far this year.  KB is definitely in play as a potential dominator but is probably more of a tournament play this weekend.
• Martin Truex -- He is under priced at $9,900 DK, which is $1,800 less than Harvick and $2,400 less than Busch.  Truex won here in 2017 and led 150 laps in that race.  He started 4th and finished 4th here earlier this year.  In the seven races on 1.5 mile tracks this season, he has one win and six top 5 finishes.  He will likely be a cash game lock.
  
• Brad Keselowski -- He's hot coming into the playoffs and this is a very good track for him and his Penske teammate Joey Logano.  BK has two wins in the last five races here and his worst finish in that span is 7th.  He's also led laps in 4 of the last 5 races here -- including 89 laps led last year.  Decent value at $9,600 DK.  Has Top 10 finishes at 5 of the 7 1.5 mile track races this season.
  
• Joey Logano -- Has 5 straight Top 10 finishes here and has led laps in each of the last five races here.  Excellent value at $8,800 DK.  Has 6 Top 10 finishes in the 7 1.5 mile track races this season.
• Kyle Larson -- He's finished 2nd and 3rd in the last two races here.  He finished in the Top 10 at 6 of the 7 1.5 mile tracks this season, but he still has never won a points paying Cup Series race at a 1.5 mile track.  At $10,700 DK, it's hard to justify playing him in cash games because the 78, 2 and 22 look like better values.  But he's a tournament option for sure.
  
• Jimmie Johnson -- $8,300 DK is just too cheap.  This is actually one of Jimmie's better tracks of late.  In the last five races here, he has one awful 41st place finish, but he also has 3rd, 6th, 11th and 12th place finishes.  He's also led laps in four of the last five races here.  He's squarely in play pending practice performance and qualifying spot.
• Austin Dillon -- Seemingly very under priced at $6,700 on DK -- which is just $200 more than his brother Ty.  His ownership will probably be sky high and that's probably the right play in a cash game, but know what you're getting.  In all of 2017 and 2018 to date, he has finished in the Top 10 at a 1.5 mile track one time.  That's 18 races with 1 measly Top 10 finish.  And that 1 Top 10 finish was the 2017 Coca Cola 600 in Charlotte that he won by max saving fuel and making one less pit stop than everyone else.  So go ahead and take him in a cash game, just have the proper expectations -- a fringe Top 20 finish is most likely.  Given this discussion, he's probably a good fade in tournaments.  And I'll probably run away from him altogether if he qualifies well.
• Clint Bowyer, Eric Jones, Aric Almirola and Daniel Suarez are also high on the list of potential values pending their practice speed and qualifying spot.  None of them has any remarkable good or bad history here.  But they're all solid drivers on top teams with reasonable salaries.

Check back throughout the weekend as we'll have more leading into Saturday's Xfinity Series race and Sunday's Cup Series race.

A very uncertain situation this weekend due to the weather.  Heavy/flooding rains are expected to begin on Friday and last well into Sunday.  It's unclear if there will be any dry time to allow any practice -- much less any racing -- to take place this weekend.  For now, I'm only going to post a few drivers who stand out coming into the weekend.  I'm not sure what else I'll be posting for this weekend.  Stay tuned.

• Kyle Busch has been a beast here.  He won the race in 2015 and 2016.  He was absolutely dominant in 2016 -- starting from the pole, winning the race and leading 149 of 170 laps.  Last year, he was dominating again until the controversial restart where Martin Truex got loose down low and took them both out.  Busch again started from the pole last year and led 87 of the first 110 laps before the accident.  He has to be considered the favorite coming into the race.
• As referenced above, Martin Truex was running up front last year and was the only car who was even in the same zip code as Busch.  He finished 4th in 2015 and 8th in 2016.  At $10,100, his price tag has come down quite a bit on DK.
• Kevin Harvick has also predictably done well here lately.  In the past four races, he's finished 6th, 6th, 3rd and 8th.  He has not led any laps the last two races, but in 2015, he led 75 of the 164 laps run.
• Joey Logano has five straight Top 8 finishes at Indy.  His last five races here, he's finished 4th, 7th, 2nd, 5th and 8th.  He's also finished 4th and 2nd the last two weekends this year, so he's on a bit of a roll coming into this race.  He is under priced at $8,600 DK.
• Daniel Suarez started 15th and finished 7th here last year in his only Cup Series start at Indy.  He finished 7th and 3rd in two Xfinity Series starts here.
• Matt Kenseth has finished 5th, 2nd, 7th, 4th and 5th in his last five races here -- albeit with Joe Gibbs Racing.  At $7,000 DK, he could be a target if he qualifies poorly or possibly if qualifying is rained out.
• Chris Buescher started 26th and finished 9th here last year.  He is coming into this weekend with 4 straight Top 20 finishes this season -- including an impressive 13th place finish at Darlington last week.  He's reasonably priced at $6,500 DK.  A very good target assuming a reasonable starting spot.
• William Byron is on the cheap side at $6,800 DK.  This will be his first Cup Series race at Indy, but he won his only Xfinity Series race here last year over a strong field that included Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Eric Jones and Paul Menard.  Another good value target pending his starting spot. 

Here's a few notes to help you with Xfinity Series lineups on Saturday:

• Please note it's real tough to project these races without knowing the qualifying spots.  It's also hard to interpret practice times this week because teams only had two sets of tires for both practices and fall off is huge.  Bell, Reddick and other rookies had an extra set so likely showed more speed relative to others because they could run harder.
• Only 200 miles or 147 laps, so much shorter than the Cup race.  In the last three races here, there have normally been two or three drivers getting most of the laps led and fastest laps.
• In 2017, it was Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick.
• In 2016, it was Elliott Sadler, Hamlin and Kyle Larson.
• In 2015, Hamlin was largely dominant but Harvick picked up some scraps too.
• Hamlin has finished the last three races here in 1st, 2nd and 1st.  He's $1,500 cheaper than Harvick and also cheaper than Keselowski, so you'll probably want to build around Hamlin.
• Ross Chastain is probably a cash game staple too.  He's spent all year to this point in the #4 car for JD Motorsports -- which is a 2nd tier team.  He's been so good there that he's got a three race run starting with Ganassi Racing in the #42 car.  He's a talented driver now in top tier equipment, so is under priced at $7,700.
• You're probably going to want one or two Cup guys at the top of your roster, so you'll need some salary savers to go with them.   David Starr, Joey Gase, Ryan Sieg and Brandon Brown are all decent options.  Sieg in particular is a great value.  Brandon Brown started 31st and finished 20th here last year in the same #90 car.
• Don't bank on guys getting real big points for position difference.  Last year, of the Top 10 finishers, 8 started in the Top 10 and the other two started just outside the Top 10 at 11th and 13th.  Going further into the field, of the Top 20 finishers last year, all but one of them started 22nd or better.  Likewise, in 2016, of the Top 20 finishers, ALL OF THEM started 22nd or better.