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Picture c/o Stewart Haas Racing

If you played our main line-up this week, you doubled your money.  I played it in the $50 DK single entry game and doubled my money with a $100 payout.  Let's take another look at that line-up, which we posted late Saturday night:

• Harvick
• Truex
• Bowyer (or Kurt Busch)
• Blaney
• Kahne
• Ty Dillon

Harvick and Truex did exactly what we (and much of the industry) expected.  Harvick dominated and Truex charged to the front.  Both scored gobs of points as we thought they would.

Bowyer and Kurt Busch were the key to victory here.  Bowyer was under 10% owned in the games I played and Kurt was right around 10% owned.  Bowyer scored 55.5 points after finishing third from the ninth starting spot.  Kurt finished eighth after starting seventh, but he led 52 laps, so he scored 57.5 points.  We identified Bowyer based on how strong he was in final practice with single lap, 10 lap, 15 lap and 20 lap averages.  Kurt had a very strong recent history at Atlanta and ran solidly in practice as well.  So the signs were there if you did your homework -- which we did.

We also added Blaney based on his strong performance in final practice.  Watching that coverage really paid off.

We're obviously disappointed with Kahne and Ty Dillion.  We expected a bit better.  It turns out that the winner of the $50 DK contest had a very similar line-up.  They had the same four main drivers we posted, but used Austin Dillon and David Ragan instead of Kahne and Ty Dillon.  Austin made a huge difference -- scoring 41 points after finishing 14th from the 25th starting spot.  I didn't want to go there because I expected a Daytona hangover.  Plus Austin had no history of strong Atlanta runs -- finishing worse than 30th in two of the prior three races.  But taking those chances led to a very large pay day.

We also talked about fading Ryan Newman given his history of poor finishes from strong starting spots at Atlanta.  That was spot on as Newman finished 22nd and failed to score even 30 points.

As for our alternate lineups, they were designed as contrarian lineups to capitalize if Harvick or Truex, or both, ran into problems.  So these lineups obviously did poorly since the conventional wisdom prevailed this week.  In addition, both lineups featured Jimmie Johnson based on his strong Atlanta history and position difference potential.  But his day was all but over when he spun and suffered damage shortly before the end of Stage 2.  Again, if you're playing multiple line-ups, these are the types of line-ups you want to sprinkle in to hit it big if a race turns unpredictable and the favorites fall.  By their nature, these line-ups normally fail.  But when they succeed, they tend to win big.

On to Vegas!
Just a few quick notes on Vegas.  We'll spend much more time on it throughout the week:

• Truex won the Vegas race last year and he dominated 1.5 mile tracks -- will likely be the car to beat this week
• Watch all the Penske cars--
  • Keselowski has two wins and has finished 7th or better in the last five Vegas races
  • Logano has finished 4th, 2nd, 10th, and 4th in the last four Vegas races
  • Blaney has finished 7th and 6th in the last two Vegas races
• I don't know what to do with the 48 team right now, but Jimmie Johnson has led at least 19 laps in each of the last six Vegas races

(h/t to driveraverages.com for the data)

A few quick notes before on track action begins today:

• Today we have practice from 1135am-1255pm Eastern.  Then qualifying at 515pm Eastern.  Both will be shown live on FS1.
• Pay particular attention to the first 30-45 minutes of practice.  That is when most teams will probably work on their race set-up.  (After that, most will switch to qualifying trim.)  Watch and listen to determine whose cars are handling well and showing speed in that first part of practice.
  
• Atlanta is a very abrasive track with rapid tire wear.  Lap times will go up dramatically over longer runs.  Pay attention to any numbers or comments the Fox crew gives for 10, 15 or even 20 lap averages.  You will want to focus on the drivers who are sustaining their lap times the best over a longer run.
• The forecast is still very wet for Sunday, so the final race schedule is a bit up in the air.
• We'll have more after today's action is complete.

​Pic from AMS official website

​Here's our first detailed look at this weekend's race at Atlanta Motor Speedway.  With all the randomness and unpredictability that goes into a plate track race like Daytona, I consider this the true start to the fantasy NASCAR season.  So let's get started and win some contests.

This is a 500 mile race on an old, worn out 1.5 mile surface.  Last year, most of the cars that ran all the laps made 9 - 11 pit stops.  So, with the new pit stop procedures this year, a team that can have clean, penalty free pit stops is going to gain a significant advantage in track position.  Not to knock them unfairly, but the 11 team of Denny Hamlin seems to have an inordinate share of pit road mishaps.  It has been prevalent in years past and reared it's head at Daytona when Hamlin slide through his box and was then penalized when the crew started fueling the car before it was fully back in the pit stall.  Two mistakes in the same pit stop in race one is not the way to start.

Another factor this week will be the weather.  The schedule is set up with one practice and qualifying on Friday, one practice on Saturday and the race at 2pm Eastern time on Sunday.  Friday's weather is predicted to be OK.  But Saturday shows a 30-50% rain chance.  And Sunday shows rain likely throughout the day.  Hopefully we can get the race in Sunday without delays or interruptions.  Even if we do, though, the conditions could be much different than what the drivers experienced earlier in the weekend.  That should favor drivers who have done well in recent races and have a good baseline coming into the weekend.

So, here's our list of the top recent performers at Atlanta.  You'll probably want to get two or three of these guys onto your DK roster:

• Kevin Harvick -- Kevin has dominated the last four Atlanta races, but he has no wins and only one Top 5 finish to show for it.  In 2014, he led 195 of 335 laps, but finished 19th.  In 2015, he led 116 of 325 laps and finished 2nd.  In 2016, he led 131 of 330 laps and finished 6th.  And, in 2017, he led 292 of 325 laps, but finished 9th.  This is a case of bad luck or mistakes hitting at the wrong time.  He could very easily have four straight wins.  He loves to ride around the bottom yellow line here, so we'll look for that in practice to confirm he has the same feel and handle as in recent years.  In addition to great race performances, Harvick has also won the pole twice in the last four races.
• Martin Truex Jr. -- The 78 group just kills the 1.5 mile tracks.  As we noted in the season preview series, seven of Truex's eight wins in 2017 were at 1.5 mile tracks.  He won seven of the eleven races run at those tracks in 2017.  He finished no worse than 8th in those races and his average finish was 2.5.  And he led over 33% of the laps run at those tracks.  The only nitpick is that Truex has never won at Atlanta.  His last three finishes were 8th, 7th and 6th, though, so he's been near the front consistently.  Despite the lack of wins, he and Harvick could make a strong 1-2 punch this week since (depending on starting position) they are likely to score a load of laps led and fastest lap bonus points.  
• Chase Elliott -- Chase is from nearby Dawsonville, Georgia, so it's a special "home" race for him.  In his only two Cup Series races in Atlanta, he finished 5th and 8th.  He's a strong pick for another Top 10 finish.
• Brad Keselowski -- Brad won the 2017 Atlanta race and finished 9th in both the 2016 and 2015 races.  Despite those impressive finishes, however, he doesn't have the laps led or other numbers to show real domination at this track.
• Kurt Busch -- Kurt has been consistently strong at this track.  In the last eight Atlanta races, Kurt has one win, six Top 10 finishes and no finish worse than 13th position.  Here's the list of his last eight finishing positions with the most recent first -- 7th, 4th, 13th, 4th, 13th, 4th, 6th and 1st.
• Jimmie Johnson -- Jimmie won the Atlanta races in 2015 and 2016.  In 2015, he led 92 laps and in 2016 he led 52 laps.  Simply put, he has shown an ability to close out a race at this track and best a car (Harvick's) that seemed unbeatable.  On the flip side, Jimmie had a disappointing 19th place finish in the most recent Atlanta race in 2017.  As of now, I don't love Jimmie in this spot given all that's gone on of late, but I can't not mention a guy of his stature when he's won two of the last three races at this track.  And I could not fault anyone for using him this week.  Just not sure I'm comfortable enough to do so yet.
• Joey Logano -- He looked strong last week and this 22 team might be getting the championship level juice back.  Joey has been good, but not great, at this track of late.  His last five finishes are 6th, 12th, 4th, 14th and 2nd.

We'll have more analysis as the weekend nears and some more definitive guidance after we see what happens in qualifying on Friday afternoon.  If you're interested in tracking the weather situation, check out Brian Neudorff on twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN

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