The chaos already started in qualifying.  Aric Almirola had something break in the rear end of his car.  He slowed dramatically and eventually lost control of the car.  He never hit the wall but will be in a backup for the race.  He qualified 40th. 

So here's my approach for this race.  I think this applies to cash and tournaments equally.

• Position difference is going to be the key factor this week.  There are less than 200 laps in this race and very rarely does any driver lead more than about 60 laps total.  (In the last 6 Talladega races, the most laps led by one driver is 90 and the other races ranged from 46-67.)  And fastest laps get spread throughout the field because of the draft.  So, unlike most weeks, there won't be a dominator who starts up front.
• Salary won't really be an issue this week.  We don't want the real expensive guys starting up front.
• The same approach seems best for DraftKings and FanDuel this week.
• Lock in Almirola.  You have to play him in cash.  In a tournament, I guess you could fade him, but his upside is through the roof and there is no downside.
• Build the rest of your lineup using guys on credible teams starting 18th or worse.  In addition to Almirola, I counted 13 other guys who are legitimate starters for this week.  My favorites are bolded:
  • Ryan Newman (starts 18th) -- three consecutive Top 10s at plate tracks
  • Kyle Busch (19th) -- strong team with good pit stops; will move up if not in Big One
  • Kyle Larson (22nd) -- same as Busch
  • Ryan Blaney (23rd) -- Penske, Fords strong at Talladega
  • Austin Dillon (24th) -- won most recent plate track race
  • Chris Buescher (25th) -- 17th (+11 positions) and 15th (+19 positions) last year
  • Kasey Kahne (26th) -- finished 5th and 8th at Talladega last year
  • Jamie McMurray (27th) -- 2 Top 5 finishes from similar spot in last 4 races
  • AJ Allmendinger (28th) -- good plate track history, but more so at Daytona
  • Ty Dillon (29th) -- finished 11th and 13th from 25th and 28th starting last year
  • Matt DiBenidetto (33rd) -- been good in 4 of 5 plate track races with the 32 team
  • Cole Whitt (36th) -- 4 Top 20 finishes in last 6 Talladega races
  • Gray Gaulding (37th) -- finished 9th and 20th from 39th and 37th starting last year
• I would not deviate from the above strategy in a cash game.  If you want to go off strategy in a tournament, you could add a Top 15 starter with a strong Talladega or plate track history.  The guys I would consider are Hamlin, Stenhouse, Logano and Keselowski.
• In the Nascar Fantasy Live game, I'd go with Logano, Keselowski, Hamlin, Stenhouse, Hamlin and Elliott.
• Good luck.  And don't over do it this weekend.  These plate track races are the most unpredictable races where luck plays much more of a role than in other weeks.

I'm not going to do much more with driver targets until after qualifying this week.  At these plate tracks, so much of what I want to do is decided by qualifying position that I can't even narrow things down in a useful way until we see where drivers will start.  We really want to focus on position difference potential this week and we have no idea what that will be until we know the starting lineup.

As far as the weekend schedule goes, it's unique this week.  On Friday, there are two 50-minute practices but no qualifying.  On Saturday, there is qualifying but no practice.  Unlike a normal week, practice at the plate tracks really doesn't tell us a whole lot about who's going to have success on Sunday.  So, unless some huge news breaks on Friday, I'm not planning on a post-practice update.  The next update will likely be a final update with DraftKings and FanDuel targets late Saturday.

Here's just a few more driver notes to keep in mind:

• Paul Menard has finished all the laps in the last five plate track races and has four Top 10 finishes in those races.
• AJ Allmendinger has three Top 10 finishes in the last five plate track races.
• Bubba Wallace has finished 2nd and 15th in his only two plate track races in the Cup series.
• Ryan Newman has three consecutive Top 10 finishes at plate tracks.

As always, tweet questions or comments @illinisjc

  

If you were with us from the start, you will remember that my approach is to pull back and not do many fantasy contests for plate track races.  Everything is just so random based on who gets caught up in the big one and who is lucky enough to survive to the end of the race.  Also, limit your exposure in cash games because no one is a safe pick at a plate track.  Go heavier in tournaments and lighter in cash games.  That said, we do have a handful of guys that have put together some level of consistent success at Talladega.

• ​In the last 7 races, Brad Keselowski has 3 wins and a total of 5 Top 7 finishes.
• Kurt Busch has finished in the Top 10 in 5 of the last 7 races.
  
• Aric Almirola has 3 straight finishes in the Top 8.
  
• Joey Logano has 2 wins in the last 5 races.
  
• Gray Gaulding finished 20th last May and 9th last October.  Really, he did.  See what I mean about the randomness and luck factor.

​We'll have more as the week rolls on.

FanDuel is launching a fantasy NASCAR product this weekend.  The first group of contests is now live.  Here's a brief rundown:

• 5 driver roster using a traditional salary cap system
  
• Scoring based on order of finish with .5 place differential .1 per lap led and .1 per lap completed.  There is nothing for fastest laps as in DK.

​It seems really odd to award .1 for a lap completed.  And this takes some of the bite out of a race dominator who starts at the front.  For example, a guy who starts from pole, leads 200 laps and wins the race scores almost the same as a guy who starts last because he failed qualifying inspection, doesn't lead a lap but finishes in the Top 5.

​Our friend @DKNascar on twitter has run a few spreadsheets that show how drivers would have done thus far this season using the new FanDuel scoring system.  I'd encourage you to check it out and follow him.

At least for this week, I've got to imagine most people playing FanDuel will be loading their lineups with drivers starting towards the back of the field. 

Qualifying threw a bit of a curve ball at us with Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski starting way back in the field.  Here is how I'm approaching things for the Saturday night race in cash games:

• Start with either Kyle Busch or Brad Keselowski.  Both should gain 20+ positions and even have the potential to lead laps and win by the time all is said and done.  I lean towards Busch because I think it's more likely he could get to the front, but wouldn't argue with anyone who wants to save the $1,100 salary and go with BK.
• Pick a dominator from the group of Truex, Logano, Larson and Hamlin.  Here, I'm leaning Truex because of how he's performed in the last two night races at Richmond.  In both races (Sept 2016 and Sept 2017), Truex led 190+ laps and dominated large portions of the race.  This time he has the added benefit of starting from the pole and having the best pit selection to help on pit stops.  As documented below, Logano has 8 straight Top 10 finishes at Richmond and Hamlin has 5 straight.  But neither of them has dominated a night race like Truex did the last two.  Larson won here last September, but led only 53 laps.  That is the most laps he's ever led at a Richmond race.
• Pick a few mid-level points hogs who are safe and have position difference upside.  The best candidates are Johnson, Almirola, Bowyer, A. Dillon, Suarez and Menard.  My favorites from this group are Almirola, Menard and Suarez.  Almirola had two Top 10 finishes at Richmond from a 20+ starting position when he was with RPM.  He is running well this year with SHR and he was third on the 20 lap chart in final practice.  I think we can safety project a finish between 10th-15th with 10 or more PD points.  For Menard, he is now affiliated with Team Penske, which has a great record at Richmond.  And he was 6th on the 20 lap chart in final practice.  For Suarez, he finished 12th and 7th last year at Richmond.  His team at JGR has a great Richmond track record and he rolls off 26th, giving him great PD upside.  I like Bowyer -- and he showed his short track ability at Martinsville -- but I think you get a similar profile from Menard for $1,300 less salary.  Dillon was 7th on the 20 lap chart in final practice, but he has only one finish better than 20th at Richmond in his Cup career.  Johnson is a wild card.  I truly don't know what to expect from him in any given week.     
• Pick a salary saver.  Good targets are Kasey Kahne and Landon Cassill.  I usually avoid Kahne, but he does have a decent history at Richmond -- albeit with better teams.  But he was 4th on the 20 lap chart in final practice, so he is showing some speed this weekend.  Cassill is more of a crap shoot, but he starts 36th and has outperformed the last two weeks, finishing 21st and 20th for 30+ FanDuel points.  His extremely low salary gives you room to spend elsewhere.  If you have the salary left, go with Kahne.  If you're short, go with Cassill.

All the above are GPP targets for me as well.  If you're looking for guys likely to be lower owned, I would recommend Chase Elliott, Kurt Busch and Eric Jones.

In the Nascar.com Fantasy Live game, I'm lining up Truex, Logano, Larson, Harvick and Hamlin with Eric Jones in the garage.  Go with a JGR or Penske car or affiliate to win the stages and race.

We've got a 400 lap race this weekend, so the points for laps led and fastest laps will be huge again -- just like last week at Bristol.  We've got 100 laps led points available and 200 fastest laps points out there.  So, if someone dominates this race with 200+ laps led, it's going to be real hard to win if he's not in your lineup.  And, there are a good number of guys with good histories at Richmond and the potential to dominate this week. 

Here's an initial target list to work from:

• Denny Hamlin  -- This is the guy I think of when it comes to Richmond.  He has five consecutive finishes in the Top 6, including one victory.  He has led a total of 249 laps in the last four races, with a high of 189 laps led in Fall 2016.  I'd feel better about him if he didn't seem to have a mishap in the pits every single week.
• Joey Logano -- Joey has under the radar Dominator potential on Saturday.  One, his numbers are great at Richmond.  He has eight consecutive Top 10 finishes.  Last year, he won-* the Spring race and finished 2nd in the Fall.  I put the star by the victory because this is the race where Logano got a post-race penalty and the victory could not be used to qualify him for the Playoffs.  He never won again last year and missed the Playoffs.  Given the history, there is no one with more incentive to go out and dominate on Saturday night. 
  
• Kyle Busch -- Kyle is hot right now with two straight victories.  He also does very well at short tracks, including Richmond.  That said, he's been solid, but not great in Richmond races.  He hasn't won at Richmond since the Spring of 2012.  And he hasn't dominated a race there anytime in the last five years.  I wouldn't count him out on Saturday night, but his history isn't screaming Dominator either.
  
• Truex, Larson, Harvick and Keselowski also have Dominator potential.
• Daniel Suarez -- Suarez finished 7th and 12th at Richmond last year.  Joe Gibbs racing has an excellent history at the track and Suarez could be a good mid-level play this week.
  
• Aric Almirola -- He has finished in the Top 5 in two of the last five Richmond races.  Those races were in the #43 Richard Petty Motorsports car.  He is in better equipment now and could be a surprise challenger for the win on Saturday.  He has a good short track background.
  
• Ryan Newman -- Finished in the Top 10 in both Richmond races last year.
  
• I'll also be watching Clint Bowyer and Eric Jones.  Neither has a great history at Richmond, but they do have the background to excel at a short track and they are both with top teams that are running well right now.

The drivers we highlighted had a good week at Bristol.  We were very high on both Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson and, if you had them both, you probably did very well.

One other note before moving to Richmond.  To repeat something we talked about when this website began, the whole point of this is to help people better understand the concepts that lead to success in fantasy Nascar games.  That is why we have multiple updates throughout the week highlighting drivers who have had past success at the track, who look good in practice, and who are on a roll going into the race.  That is why we talk about strategies for building long term success -- such as reducing our exposure at plate races and when there is too much uncertainty like Texas two weeks ago.  That is why, when we talk about lineup ideas, we say why we want a guy in the lineup or why we are thinking of fading what might otherwise be a popular pick.  In the end, we want people to use this information to do their own analysis and make their own lineup decisions.  You're the one pressing the Enter button on your entries.  If you're just coming here to cut and paste a lineup we talk about, you're doing it all wrong.

Onto Richmond.  It's a Saturday night race so we have an off schedule this week.  All the meat of our work is jammed into Friday.  There are two practices during the day Friday with qualifying in the early evening on Friday.  The Cup race is then on Saturday night.  The Xfinity race is Friday night.  Given this schedule, we'll be posting our initial driver list by sometime Wednesday.  Then we'll update everything late Friday or early Saturday with final thoughts and our top targets.  So please check back soon.

Until then, think about these things:

• Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano and Kurt Busch are the only drivers with 4 consecutive Top 10 Richmond finishes.
• Last year, Logano won the Spring race at Richmond, but was given a post-race penalty that meant he could not use the win for Playoff eligibility.  He didn't win again last season and missed the Playoffs.
• Last Spring at Richmond, Fords finished in 4 of the Top 5 spots and 6 of the Top 9.  However, the Toyota of since-retired Matt Kenseth led the most laps (164).
• More to come later.

This is another tough race because there are a lot of variables up in the air due to the weather.  As of now, it looks doubtful that they can complete a full race at the scheduled time on Sunday.  So we're looking at the possibility of a delayed race on Sunday, possibly run at least in part during the night.  Or a race on Monday.  And no matter when it happens, conditions will be much different than what the teams saw at practice.  So, like last week, I'm urging some caution for this week due to the uncertainty and unpredictability.

That said, this is the lineup I'm planning to go with on Sunday for cash games:

• Kyle Busch -- Have to have this guy.  He had the best 10, 15 and 20 lap averages in final practice according to Fox.  Has 6 Bristol wins and the pole sitter has been in the Top 3 DK scorers in 5 of the last 6 Bristol races.  Expect a Top 5 finish and well over 100 laps led.
  
• Kyle Larson -- Great success at this track last year.  He will get the high line going at some point in the race and that will allow him to pass all the guys who are set up to run only the bottom grove.  He starts 6th, so there is some risk, but there is also race winning and 100+ laps led upside.
  
• Denny Hamlin -- His car seemed to come alive in the final practice.  He's excellent on the short tracks as it is and has three straight Top 10 finishes at Bristol.  And he starts 25th, which offers excellent position difference potential.
  
• Jamie McMurray -- Has a pretty good history here.  Starts 31st, so we're hoping for a finish between 15th-20th to give us a good 40-45 points or so.  On the downside, he didn't look very good in practice.  But he's on a solid team, so you have to figure they get the car going decent for the race.
  
• Trevor Bayne -- Starts 33rd, but has five straight Top 15 finishes at Bristol.  So the same story as McMurray.  And at a great price of $6,000.
  
• Ty Dillon -- This one scares me a bit.  He hasn't shown much this year, but he's had his two best races the last two weeks.  And, starting 32nd, all we need is for him to avoid a race ending wreck and move up about 5 spots.  If he can do that, finishing 27th would give him 22 points.  At his $5,900 salary, I'd take that.
• A note on Kevin Harvick.  I can't say he's a bad cash game play, but I really didn't like the way he looked in that back-up car.  He seemed very uncomfortable in both practices and wasn't putting up good times.  Personally, I would use him only in Tourneys -- if at all given his high salary.

Here are a couple other guys that I think are good Tourney plays only:

• Martin Truex, Jimmie Johnson, Ricky Stenhouse, Ryan Blaney

Have fun and enjoy the race.  If you have any final questions, Tweet them @illinisjc

First, a few notes about overall Draft Kings strategy and approach for this week:

• With a 500 lap race, there are over 100 lap led points and over 200 fastest lap points out there for the taking.  Recent Bristol races have had one or two guys who score 100+ DK points because of the bonus points they rack up for laps led and fastest laps.  It will be critical to get at least one of those Dominators in your lineup.
  
• Position difference is still a factor, but less so than most weeks.  Just last Fall, Kevin Harvick had the third best DK score (70.5) in large part because he was +21 in position difference points.  He didn't lead any laps and had only 27 fastest laps, but was still the third highest DK scorer.
• Like last week, this is a week to remain pretty cautious and probably go more towards tournaments and less towards cash games.  Bristol can be a very unpredictable track.  It is often hard to pass, there is a lot of contact and a lot of damaged race cars.  In addition, we have very sketchy weather for Sunday.  At the very least, race conditions are going to be much different than anything the teams saw in practice or qualifying.  All that adds up to more risk and more uncertainty.

Here are a few more drivers I am looking at given their qualifying position:

• Denny Hamlin -- Hamlin starts 25th.  In 4 of the last 6 Bristol races, one of the top three DK scorers started 25th or lower.  Most times, those drivers move through the field, lead laps and score bonus points in several different ways.  Hamlin is the most likely driver to do that this week.  Martin Truex (starts 26th) is also a possibility and worth watching in practice on Saturday as well.
• Jamie McMurray -- Similar logic to Hamlin here.  McMurray -- who starts 31st -- had a great run at Texas last week and could continue a rebound after a very poor start to the season.  He has a solid record at Bristol as well.  He's finished on the lead lap in the last five races at Bristol.  And the last time he started this deep in the field (28th), he rallied for an 8th place finish.  Ryan Newman (starts 30th) and is also a candidate here. 
• I continue to like Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick and Trevor Bayne

More to come after two practice sessions on Saturday.

The Cup series returns to Bristol for what is always an action packed race.  We have a traditional weekend schedule with an hour of practice and qualifying on Friday, two more hours of practice on Saturday and the race on Sunday.  Friday and Saturday are forecast to be great weather days with sunshine and a high near 80.  Rain is forecast for Sunday, so we'll be keeping our fingers crossed that we can get this race in.

Here is my first take on drivers to be focused on this week:

Kevin Harvick -- He has finished no worse than 8th in his last five Bristol races.  He hasn't led a ton of laps, but he's been as solid and consistent as anyone the last few years.  The question will be whether he is worth the $11,500 price tag.

Kyle Busch -- Kyle has been up and down at Bristol.  Last Fall, he won the race while leading 156 of 500 laps.  But in Spring, he didn't lead any laps and finished 35th.  In 2016, he led 256 laps in the Fall race but had a late accident and finished 39th.  In the Spring of 2016, he again didn't lead a lap and finished 38th.  He's been on a roll lately and is a candidate to lead 100+ laps on Sunday, so he has to be on any watch list.  But he does carry a lot of risk and a $11,300 salary.

Kyle Larson -- Larson was great at Bristol last year.  In Spring, he started from the pole, led 202 laps, and finished 6th.  In Fall, he started 2nd, led 70 laps, and finished 9th.  However, in the three races before that, he didn't crack the Top 20.  Another up and down guy with the potential to lead 100+ laps on Sunday.  $9,700 salary.

Joey Logano -- Logano has two Bristol wins during his time at Team Penske.  In the last five Bristol races, he has a win, four Top 10 finishes and a worst finish of 13th place.  He's also led laps in four of those five races.  At $9,300, he comes at a decent discount off the top tier of drivers.  He has finished in the Top 7 in all but one race so far this year.

Eric Jones -- Last Fall, Jones started on the pole and led 260 laps before finishing 2nd.  In his only other Cup race at Bristol last Spring, he started 14th and finished 17th.  He ran very well last week at Texas.  $8,300 salary.

Rickey Stenhouse -- In ten career Cup races at Bristol, Stenhouse has five Top 10s and has never finished worse than 21st.  However, he also has 0 laps led at the track.  At $7,600, he's could be a good mid-level play depending on his starting position.

Trevor Bayne -- At $6,000, Bayne could be a good salary saver this week.  In his last five Bristol races, he has finished no worse than 15th.  He even has two Top 10 finishes and other finishes of 11th and 12th.  Bristol is by far his best track for average finishing position in his Cup career.

Matt DiBenedetto -- At $5,600, DeBenedetto is another potential salary saver.  He has finished in the Top 20 in three of the last four Bristol races -- all with sub-standard teams.  In the remaining race, he started 34th and finished 26th, so still had a decent day.  We'll be hoping he starts near the back to give us position difference point potential.

Check back with us Friday, Saturday and Sunday before lock for additional updates and a recommended lineup.  Fire off any questions on Twitter @illinisjc