I don't have a whole lot to say here because I'm pretty much out from a cash game perspective this week. I don't like to play obvious chalk weeks because I want to play 6 on 6 instead of 4 on 4.  This week, I'd expect everyone to have Harvick and Logano, so that reduces the competition to 4 against 4.  There's just too much luck and randomness involved at that point for my liking.  It makes it worse that there's additional good and pretty obvious plays starting in the mid- to late- 20s starting spots.  Guys like Buescher, Byron, etc.  Play light and hold onto your resources for the last few races or other sports.

We'll see what happens in qualifying but I'm pretty locked in right now on Friday night.  Here's what I'm looking at:

• On the high end I really like Bell and either Custer or Reddick. Reddick was a rocket in final practice and was a good .1 to .2 of a second faster per lap than anyone else on single lap, 5-lap, 10-lap and 15-lap times. He won the last 1.5 mile track race at Las Vegas and has been really consistent at this track type this year with only one race under 58 DK points (41 points at Chicago). Custer was right behind Reddick in final practice and has dominated two of the last three 1.5 mile track races (127 DK points at Chicago and 98 DK points at Kentucky). I like Bell best because he's hit 85+ DK points at four of the seven 1.5 mile track races so far this year. And he's only had one bad race at this track type this season. Possible to switch to Custer/Reddick after qualifying but unlikely as I see it now. In all events, probably need two of these three in your lineup as they will likely lead all of the laps.
• Two great options in the middle tier are Ross Chastain at $9K and Ryan Truex at $8K. Really like them far and away the most in that range. Ross is in a Kaulig car which should have Top 8 speed instead of his normal ride with JDM that usually puts him around 15th-18th. (The Kaulig hauler crashed on the way to Kansas but they scrambled to get the primary Texas car to the track for this weekend. I'm not too worried about that as he showed solid speed in practice.) Truex is in the #8 JR Motorsports entry which is really a top notch ride. Top 8-10 is the expectation.
  
• At $7,800, I also liked Gray Gaulding coming into the week because he's racked up Top 15 finishes at the 1.5 mile tracks all season. But Gray came down sick on the way to Kansas and it's unclear if he'll even be cleared to race. JJ Yeley practiced the 08 car on Friday. If JJ were to be in that car for the race, I think he'll become a must start at his near min price of $5K.
  
• Staying in the cheap category, I like BJ McLeod in the lead J.D. Motorsports car this week, Vinnie Miller for his safety and Tyler Matthews for his near min price. All these guys will be off the pace somewhat but will be trying to complete every lap.
• Expected start and park cars include 13 (Timmy Hill), 17 (Bayley Currey), 74 (Kyle Weatherman) and 89 (Landon Cassill).

For the super speedway races, I go along with the strategy of using guys starting in the back half of the field.  Especially in cash games, there's just too much risk starting anyone in the front half of the field given the wrecks and attrition rate we see at these races.  So there's not a whole lot of detail to go into until we know starting spots.  Here's a few notes to guide your lineup building:

Trucks

• In the last three races here, the strategy we use has worked really well.  Let's look at some specific results:
  • Last year, seven of the Top 10 starters finished 17th or worse.  And the Top 10 finishers were loaded with back markers who started 21st, 27th, 28th, 30th and 32nd.  That was more extreme then we normally see and the strategy paid off big time.
  • Two years ago was a bit more tame.  But still, only three of the Top 10 starters finished the race in the Top 10.  And the trucks that started 14th, 15th, 16th, 19th and 24th all finished in the Top 10.
  • Three years ago was pretty crazy too.  Four of the Top 10 starters finished 27th or worse.  The 22nd place and 24th place starters finished in the Top 10.  And the mid-teen finishing positions were filled with back markers who started 27th, 31st, 23rd, 26th and 29th.
• I don't focus much on this, but there are a few guys who have had a pretty good run of success at the super speedways (or at least avoided the worst of the wrecks).  If any or all of these guys are starting where we want them, they are top targets:
  • Grant Enfinger has four Top 6 finishes in the last six super speedway races.  He'll qualify too far forward for cash games, but is a good tournament play.
  • Austin Hill -- 11th, 10th and 1st in three truck races at super speedways.  Again will probably qualify too well to be a cash game play, but fire up for tournaments.
  • Spencer Boyd -- 13th and 4th in two truck races at super speedways.
  • Austin Wayne Self -- 9th in February at Daytona and has finished in the Top 20 in the last six super speedway races.
  • Jordan Anderson -- 9th, 7th and 25th in three super speedway races.
  • Jennifer Jo Cobb -- 19th and 11th in the last two Talladega races.
• I am not convinced that Norm Benning will run the whole race.  Other than that, I don't see any start and parks in the truck field.  

I'll add a few notes for the Cup Series race after qualifying on Saturday.

200 laps at Dover, so a good chunk of fastest laps and laps led points are out there.  Based on past performance and Friday practice, it looks like Cole Custer and Christopher Bell are the two most likely dominators and we can probably fit them both in a cash game lineup with four decent options behind them.  Here are my main targets:

• Custer -- Was fastest by far in final practice.  Led 155 of 200 laps here in the Spring.
• Bell -- Won the last two races here.  Led 110 and 44 laps in the last two Dover races.
• Allgaier -- I don't see him leading a lot of laps unless something happens to Custer and/or Bell.  But he's finished in the Top 3 the last four Dover races, including a win last Spring with 104 laps led.  It won't make sense to play him in cash games unless something crazy happens in qualifying, but he's a good tournament pivot off Custer/Bell.
• Justin Haley -- Too cheap at $8,200.  Reliable team with a Top 10 finish likely.  Showed consistent speed on a long run in final practice -- 5th on the 15 lap and 20 lap time sheet.
• Zane Smith and Ross Chastain are two guys in a similar price range that I could use as well depending on starting spot.
• Sub-$7,000 plays:
  • Ray Black Jr. -- Consistent team, runs all the laps, showed 16th-20th place speed in practice.
  • B.J McLeod -- The only reliable sub-$6K guy.  22nd in final practice.  I wouldn't touch any of the other sub-$6K guys in a cash game setting unless qualifying leaves you desperate.  All of them are start and park and/or mechanical risks.  I just don't use MBM guys in cash (Finchum, Hill or Gase) because they are unreliable and unpredictable.
  • Vinnie Miller / Matt Mills -- Have used these guys a lot this year.  Cheap and we know their approach is to race conservatively and finish the race ahead of start and parks and retirements.
  • Maybe Dillon Bassett.  He's too risky for me, but I see an argument for using him.  He's in decent equipment and they'll try to run the whole race.  My issue with the Bassett guys is they are trying to race hard and go fast and that's really hard for inexperienced, part time guys.  And that's not a knock on them, it would be true for anyone in that spot.  Dillon's done four races this year and done really well in two (15th and 13th at the two Richmond races) but also done really poorly in two (38th Michigan and 26th at Iowa with major negative position difference).  I don't want that profile in my cash lineup unless there are no other good options and he qualifies poorly.  Fire him up in tournaments though because (depending on qualifying spot) he's probably got the highest ceiling of the guys in this salary range.   
• Landon Cassill -- DO NOT USE.  He's in the #89 start and park, so don't be confused by practice speed, prior results or salary.
• Other guys who I think will NOT finish -- Joe Nemechek and Carl Long will definitely park.  I think Kyle Weatherman and Mike Harmon will as well, but they may run a bit longer.  I'm not sure about Bailey Currey and JJ Yeley, but they are far too risky for cash games.