Running short on time, but wanted to post some quick notes to help you build a strong cash game lineup for Sunday's race --

• I just can't see going against Kevin Harvick at Atlanta. When you look back at the last six races here, Harvick has scored the most points for laps led and fastest laps five times. That's right -- in 5 of the last 6 races, Harvick has been the top dominator. I know his performance has not been up to his championship standards this season, but if there's any place this team will get back to that level, it's here at Atlanta. I'm back in.
• I also can't see going against Kyle Larson with the speed he's showing at all different tracks in all different packages. Larson was great in this high downforce, low horse power package at Las Vegas. He was great in the short track package at Phoenix. He was great in the road course package at Daytona. Simply put, he has the most speed of anyone in the series right now, so I feel pretty confident he's going to show that top speed for at least part of this 500 mile race.
• The salary savers are terrible. Honestly, from $7k down on Draft Kings, there is no one I want to play. But you likely have to use at least one from down in this range, so I'm probably just going to go as cheap as I can stomach with a guy like Anthony Alfredo for $5,500. He starts 32nd and can't really finish worse than that unless he has some major issues (or gets punted by Cody Ware again). So we're hoping he moves up a few spots and just makes a positive contribution.
• From there, you can fill in with some decent mid-tier options--
  • Austin Cindric -- starts 39th in what should be Top 20 equipment, although this is his first race in this race package and in the Cup Series at a 1.5 mile track
  • Tyler Reddick -- starts 29th and he finished 9 of 11 races at 1.5 mile tracks last year in the Top 18
  • Cole Custer -- starts 27th and can hopefully move inside the Top 20
  • Ryan Newman -- starts 28th and he is the type of bulldog you want for a 500 mile race; he's finished 13th and 14th the last two years here
  • Ryan Blaney and Alex Bowman -- really like both guys at worn out 1.5 mile tracks because that's where they have tended to have their best races -- they might be a little risky, but could also be pivots off Larson or Harvick if you want a more balanced lineup without a punt play like Alfredo

Saturday 1:30 EST Bets Added--

• Hemric -115 Gragson
• Hemric +100 Burton
  
• Jones -115 Allgaier
  
• Annett -110 Herbst
  

Like Trucks, I've got a pretty small cash game pool for this Xfinity race, so we'll go through most of them here.

Up top, it will probably be two of Austin Cindric, Martin Truex and Noah Gragson. I could see a case for using all three, but that would require some pretty extreme punt plays and there are a few cheaper guys who have a similar profile to Gragson. Playing all three could work, but I'll probably go a bit more balanced.

• Truex is the top guy here. He starts 18th, so has a lot of position difference upside. And this #54 car has shown really good speed with Ty Gibbs driving. I fully expect Truex to get everything out of the car as well, so he should drive to the front as the race goes on. It helps that he gets an early competition caution (Lap 20) to get his feet wet again in this car, make some adjustments and then get to it. I think he leads some laps and runs some fastest laps throughout the race to boost his point total here.
• Gragson also offers a lot of position difference upside starting 30th. It's potentially a Top 5 type car, but I feel more comfortable projecting something around 6th-8th. It's unlikely he gets up front to lead laps or run fastest laps, so we're looking at finishing position and position difference points only.
• Cindric should lead this race early and collect some fastest laps running out front. Whereas the early competition caution helps Truex, it hurts Cindric because it bunches the field back up and gives other strong cars (like Truex, Hemric, B. Jones, etc.) a chance to restart closer to the front. That said, the way Cindric is running right now, it's hard to not project him to lead a good chunk of laps in this race.

No matter how you cut it, you'll need at least one and maybe several cheap punt plays. The options aren't great, so let's focus on the few guys I'd be able to stomach using in a cash game.

• Cody Ware -- This car has run 13th, 24th and 13th the last three weeks. It has some decent speed and is finishing races. J.J. Yeley got the two 13th place finishes and I can't project Ware doing quite that well. I'd look at this as a fringe Top 20 car with an 18th-22nd range or so. That works great for the cheapest salary on the board.
• David Starr and Chad Finchum -- These two MBM drivers start 38th and 40th respectively. According to the MBM Facebook page, David Starr will be in the #61 with Whataburger sponsorship. I'm confident that car will not park -- although it still could have other issues. I'm less confident about Finchum.
• Matt Mills, Jess Little and Mason Massey -- In the past, I've been open to using B.J. McLeod cars because they had tended to race conservatively and finish races. This season has been a disaster though. In the last three weeks, these cars are only 2 for 9 finishing inside the Top 30. And they've got 4 finishes of 35th or worse in those three races. I'm going to avoid them altogether until they show at least some consistent ability to actually finish races. If I had to pick one, it would be Jess Little from this group, but I'd prefer to avoid them altogether.

And that leaves our mid-tier plays to fill in the gaps.

• Michael Annett --  Had an engine failure last week and finished 38th. At the twelve 1.5 mile tracks last year, he scored Top 10 finishes in ten of those races. He's a relatively safe bet for a Top 12 or so, which will give us some very strong position difference upside.
• Ryan Sieg -- Starts 35th and offers a little more upside than Annett but also a lot more risk. Compare Annett finishing in the Top 10 in 10 of 12 races at the 1.5 mile tracks last year to Sieg who finished in the Top 10 only five times. Sieg also had disaster finishes of 28th or worse in six of those twelve races. As we saw last week, this team sometimes uses unorthodox strategies to try to lead laps or score stage points and it often doesn't work out very well. He absolutely has Top 10 upside, but there is a good deal of risk that comes along with it.
• Alex Labbe -- Real solid play starting 37th for $7,300. He only needs a Top 20 to hit 5x and that's a very doable goal. He's a much better play than Ryan Vargas and Gray Gaulding in the same price range.
• Josh Berry -- Starts 22nd and should be able to get something like +10 position difference. But he's also made a few mistakes and carries some risk. If he can finish without incident, he should pay off.

Saturday 1:30 EST bet added

• ​Friesen -115 Moffitt

First a quick programming note -- I'll be covering all three races this weekend at Atlanta, but I'm not doing anything for the Bristol dirt stuff next week. That is going to be such a wild and unpredictable event that it doesn't make sense to spend the time studying all the one off drivers and situations were going to see in those races. I'll spend that time reviewing what I've learned in 2021 so far and getting ready for the races we'll see after the Easter weekend break.

I've got a pretty small pool of cash game drivers for the Truck race this week, so I'll review everyone on that list.

• Kyle Busch -- I'm using him and think he's too cheap even at $14k. Starting 2nd, he doesn't have any position difference upside, but he's got a clear shot to lead laps and run fastest laps right from the start. Last year at Atlanta, Kyle was out front and likely wins this race if he doesn't get collected in Jordan Anderson's wreck. As it was, Kyle had 37 laps led and 39 fastest laps in that race. He wrecked with about 30 laps left, so certainly would have added to that total. To make his salary work, he needs about 25 extra points for laps led and fastest laps. In his five Truck races last year, he averaged 38 extra points for laps led and fastest laps -- and only once fell below the 25 point mark (19 points at Charlotte). Although there is some risk with John Hunter Nemechek running so well to start the year, I still feel confident that Kyle will get to the 70-80 point range.
• Ross Chastain -- Ross has the opposite situation. He's not going to lead laps or run fastest laps, but he has a ton of position difference upside starting 40th. He doesn't have Kyle's 80+ point ceiling, but he has a pretty safe path to at least 60 points and maybe a bit more. I just don't think there's enough savings (only $1k) to give up the chance that Kyle dominates from start to finish and throws up a 90 point race. And Kyle doesn't need a ceiling performance to outscore Ross by 5 points, which is all you'd really want for a $1k difference.
• Tyler Ankrum -- Good position difference upside, but he's not really a safe play since he has more incidents then we like from a cash game play. Also likely too expensive to make Kyle work.
• Grant Enfinger -- Real safe bet for a Top 10 finish. He's back in a ThorSport truck this week and has finished 3rd and 1st the last two Atlanta races. The win last year was a fluke due to a late race caution, but he's awfully good here. Probably a tad on the expensive side considering he's unlikely to lead laps or run fastest laps. He's also tough to fit with Kyle's salary unless you're willing to use a full punt play.
• Derek Kraus -- Basically Tyler Ankrum but over $2k cheaper. Top 10 upside, but carries some risk of wrecking. He's off to a tough start this year, so it's not a completely safe play. But I still like it quite a bit. He finished 7th at Atlanta last year and was typically an 8th-12th place truck at the 1.5 mile tracks last season.
• Raphael Lessard -- He wrecked himself at Las Vegas and might be pressing too hard in his second season with a top tier team. He needs to show results soon. He's not the safest play, but should be able to get about +10 position difference if he doesn't have any issues.
• Ryan Truex -- Veteran driver here with +10-15 position difference upside. Probably going to be really heavily owned in cash games with his solid combination of value, safe floor and position difference upside.
• Spencer Davis -- His first race this season, so that's a risk for a small team. But these guys did alright last year and had five Top 20 finishes in nine races at the 1.5 mile tracks last season. I wouldn't count on that, but there is +15-18 position difference upside here and a very safe floor from the 39th starting spot.
• Chase Purdy -- I said it at Vegas and it's still crazy to have a GMS truck under $7k. Purdy has not been good, but this is Top 15 equipment without a doubt. Not as safe as Truex or Davis probably, but he really should finish higher than them.
• Hallie Deegan -- She's fine and should be able to run in the Top 20. I'm not ending up at her salary with the other people I want to use, but I'd have no problem using her.
• Brett Holmes -- Showed well before getting caught up in a wreck at Las Vegas. He's a near lock play for me at this price. I'd prefer not to go below this price.
• Cory Roper -- Is not on my list, but I wanted to mention him since he seems to offer a similar profile to Brett Holmes. Cory races hard and will throw up some good finishes from time to time, but that also results in DNFs quite often as well. It seems crazy to say an ARCA guy doing his second Truck Series race (Holmes) is a safer play, but that's the way I see it.
• Ryan Ellis and Akinori Ogata -- Both Reaume trucks offer a similar package. They'll be slow, but they aren't really racing. They're just out there to run the laps and finish in front of the trucks that wreck out. There's usually high attrition in truck races, so this strategy can get us +8-10 position difference when they're starting this far back. I don't love it, and probably won't end up here, but it is an option if you prefer to pay up more at your other roster spots.

Sunday 1:20pm Eastern -- Adding a few bets in bold at the bottom

There were six races on short, flat tracks last season and Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano were elite performers in every single one of those races. Logano won the Spring Phoenix race and finished all six races in the Top 4. Keselowski won twice (New Hampshire and Richmond) and also had 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishes. His car was good enough to win both Phoenix races but he suffered from bad pit strategy in the first race and bad pit execution in the second. I'm playing at least one (and possibly both) of these guys.

Let's look at who else is in play:

• Kevin Harvick - I'm out again this week.  This whole company is really struggling right now. Not a single Stewart-Haas car finished on the lead lap last week. At one time, Harvick was a beast at Phoenix, but not recently. He was fine early in the Spring race but Chase Elliott and Brad Keselowski had better cars throughout the race. He was bad in the Fall. He didn't win at any short, flat tracks last year and had only two Top 5 finishes. And the only time he led a significant number of laps at these tracks last year was when he started on the front row. He'll be back in 18th to start this race. He can certainly move up and might be a Top 10 car, but it would be pretty surprising if he gets to the front when he'll be starting behind so many elite cars.
• Chase Elliott - He was really, really good at Phoenix last year and arguably had the best car in both races. He won the Fall race and was leading the Spring race before getting a flat tire in the middle of the race. He dominated the last two short, flat track races last year. I want to get two of the Big Three (Elliott, Keselowski and Logano) in my lineup this week.
• Aric Almirola - Obviously, a pure position difference play here. He starts 32nd, but carries a hefty $9k salary. To hit that 5x target, he'd need to finish 15th or better. He was 8th and 13th here last year and finished four of the six short, flat track races in the Top 8 last season. But, he is part of the Stewart-Haas team that has really struggled this year. It's a very solid cash game play, but I don't think you HAVE to use him since it's very unlikely that he spikes a Top 5 with dominator points to crush anyone who doesn't use him.

I don't really like the mid-tier or position difference targets this week. Let's take a look at a few of them who might be considered:

• Alex Bowman (21st) - He might slip into the Top 10, but he's very unlikely to lead laps or run a lot of fastest laps. In the six races last year on this track type, he led a total of one lap and averaged less than seven fastest laps per race.
• Matt DeBenedetto (20th) - Had four Top 10 finishes at these tracks last year, but like Bowman had only one lap led and had even fewer fastest laps. Seems to be catching nothing but bad breaks so far this season.
• Tyler Reddick (23rd) - Only one Top 10 finish on a short, flat track last season. These tracks don't fit his style and RCR was a non-factor at all the short, flat tracks last year. They just don't seem to have a decent set up for these tracks.
• Cole Custer (24th) - Had four Top 15 finishes at these tracks last year, but also a 28th and 29th place finish. Over $1k cheaper than all the other guys here, though, so probably the best of the list if you can use the savings elsewhere. Custer finished 28th in the Fall Phoenix race, but spent most of the race in the 15th-18th range. It was never shown on TV, but I think he had contact on the last restart and had to pit for a flat tire. He went a lap down and was never able to recover because the race ended on a long green flag run with no caution for Custer to get a free pass and get back on the lead lap. He was 9th in the Spring Phoenix race and also did fine here in the Xfinity Series. I don't love it, but it makes some sense at a reasonable salary.
• Bubba Wallace (25th) - Only three Top 20 finishes at these tracks last year. He's with a new team this year, so who knows if they'll have a good set up that Bubba can drive. I just don't see much safety or upside here and he's not really that cheap.
• Daniel Suarez (27th) and Anthony Alfredo (28th) - Just cheap, punt options that we hope can gain 2-3 spots to add a small, positive score. We'd look at these guys as a means to getting three top tier plays in our lineup.

May add some H2H bets Sunday before the race.

• Elliott -115 Larson
• Logano Ev Larson
• Custer -115 A. Dillon
• Logano +255 to win Group 2 - Larson, Logano, Kyle Busch, Truex

The first big question on this slate is what to do with the expensive $10k drivers. To me, there's not a strong case to play Noah Gragson or Harrison Burton. While they had good finishes at Phoenix last year, they never really threatened as a dominator -- which we need from a $10k driver without huge position difference upside. So let's look at the remaining four:

• Justin Allgaier - He's a stud at Phoenix and short, flat tracks overall. He won 2 of the 5 flat track races last year and finished 2nd in another. At Phoenix, he led over 50 laps and ran at least 20 fastest laps in both races last year. Starting 12th, he even adds in some + position difference to add to his upside. It's a great play, but the $12k price tag is awfully high and limits what you can do elsewhere.
• Austin Cindric -  He's never been considered the strongest driver at the short, flat tracks, but he won this Phoenix race in the Fall to win the 2020 championship. He had the best car throughout that race and probably could have dominated even more if not for his patient, methodical approach in that race. It was a really impressive performance. I'd feel fine using him, although I think he'll be challenged for the lead throughout the race,
• A.J. Allmendinger - He's elevated himself into a championship contender by performing really well the last two weeks and winning at Las Vegas. If he can perform that well at the 1.5 mile tracks, he's going to get a bunch of wins this season. A.J. ran one flat track race last year (Martinsville) and was really, really fast. He starts on the outside of Row 2 and has a decent chance to get up front and lead early since you really want to be in that outside lane to take advantage of the PJ1 up high on restarts.
• Riley Herbst - Definitely fits into the category of the one that doesn't fit with the others on this list. But it's a good car starting very deep in the field. There is +20 position difference here with a very safe floor.
• As of now, I'm leaning toward using the two least expensive guys here and spending more to build a balanced lineup with some quality cars starting further back. I think we've got 4-5 different cars that could lead at some point in this race so I don't think we see any one of these guys just crush it and put up a 100+ score. (In addition to Allgaier, Cindric and Allmendinger, I wouldn't be surprised to see Daniel Hemric or Brandon Jones lead chunks of this race.) In short, I think the dominator points get spread out, so I want the cheapest access to those points and then better quality in the remaining spots.

So who are these other guys I'm excited to use:

• Ty Gibbs - Man, was he ever impressive at the Daytona Road Course. I thought he would be good because I knew Joe Gibbs would not put Ty in a bad spot and wouldn't put him out there unless he was in a great position to succeed. But I didn't see that win coming. Starting 27th, this is a great, safe floor with race winning upside once again. The price is way up from last time, but there is still a realistic path to a 6x return (or more) even without leading laps or running fastest laps. Got to use him.
• Brett Moffitt and Myatt Snider - Both are solid plays and should get you some + position difference. They don't have the upside of Gibbs, but they are still good drivers in quality cars.
• Ryan Sieg - Sieg had to make an unscheduled green flag pit stop at Phoenix last Fall that put him multiple laps down. Prior to that he was running in the 10th-12th range -- which is about what we'd expect from him at a track like this. At the four other short, flat tracks last year, he finished 11th, 12th, 15th and 11th. In the three prior Phoenix races, he finished 10th, 13th and 11th. A finish like that would give us a really solid 6x return on Saturday.
• Alex Labbe - Alex rolls off 36th on Saturday and offers +15 position difference upside from there. He's a really solid play in a decent car with no parking risk.
• J.J. Yeley - About the same as Labbe. Just a little cheaper with maybe a little less position difference upside from the 33rd starting spot. I'd feel very good using either (or both) of these guys.
• Gray Gaulding - I like Gray as a driver, but I have more faith in the car Labbe and Yeley will be in, so I'd rather use them.
• David Starr - Starr is scheduled to be in the #61 with Whataburger sponsorship, so I expect him to run the full race. It's not the fastest or most reliable car, but this is still a very good cheap option.
• On Timmy Hill, I'm concerned about him parking at some point. On Loris Hezemans, he has no oval experience, so I'm inclined to avoid notwithstanding that 40th starting spot. That said, I could see using him as part of a double punt if you want to jam in higher priced drivers.

I'll try to add some H2H bets in on Saturday.

H2H Bets Added Saturday at 2pm Eastern

• Jones -110 Gibbs
• Jeb Burton -115 Herbst
  
• Jeb Burton -105 Josh Berry
  
• Allmendinger +150 Cindric
  
• ​Allmendinger -105 Gragson
  

​

I'm not using Harvick. To me, there's just too much uncertainty about how this race is going to play out and who will lead laps. There is an early competition caution and we have a lot of cars up front that could challenge for the lead early -- including William Byron, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex, Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott who all start in the Top 8.

With all the uncertainty about who might dominate, my preferred approach this week is to play a couple of position difference guys and make a well balanced lineup. Here are my key targets to build that kind of lineup:

• Ryan Blaney - I got burned by him big time last week but I'm willing to go back to the well because he was great in both Vegas races last year. Starting 26th, I'm looking for a good +15 position difference and it wouldn't surprise me if Blaney is up in the Top 5.
• Joey Logano - Race winning upside starting 15th. He's won the last two Spring races here.
• Aric Almirola - Starting 28th and also has +15 position difference upside. For a pretty reasonable price tag here, he's really hard to pass up in a cash game setting.
• Matt DiBenedetto - I don't love playing Matt here at this salary, but it is still a solid play. I could absolutely see swapping him out if you prefer to use a potential dominator like Harvick, Hamlin or Bowman at a similar price tage.
• Cole Custer - Was running in the Top 5 last week until the last few laps when he got a flat tire. Starts 20th here and is only $6,500. I expect at least +5 position difference with the upside for more.
• Daniel Suarez - Also ran really well last week and it looks like this team has some really solid race cars. Suarez starts 22nd for only $6,100 and can certainly work at that salary with another Top 20 run.
• Denny Hamlin - $9,200 is just too cheap for a guy who can dominate at any time. Led the most laps and ran the most fastest laps in the Fall race here last year.
• Alex Bowman - $8,800 for the guy who good enough to challenge for the win the last two races here.
• Eric Jones - Starts 29th, so offers some decent position difference value. Just know you're looking at +10 max here and likely a little less even on a good day.
• Chris Buescher - Maybe. Cheap. Ran well early last week. Just not sure there is any + position difference here.

Bets

• Cole Custer +6600 to win
• Chase Elliott Ev Kevin Harvick

SATURDAY NOON EST UPDATE - FOUR H2H BETS ADDED IN BOLD BELOW

There's a couple key decisions to make for Saturday's Xfinity race, so let's get right to them:

• I think we'll want to build our lineups around three of these four potential studs -- Noah Gragson, Justin Allgaier, Austin Cindric and Harrison Burton.
  • All of these cars should finish in the Top 10, so you're key decision comes down to whether you want to go all position difference with this group or go with the likely dominator in Cindric.
  • I do think Cindric leads and runs fastest laps out front early in this race. The question is whether it all ends up being enough to overcome the built in position difference upside of the other studs. I'm finding it really hard to go Cindric over Gragson or Allgaier with their built in +30 position difference upside.
  • So, it really comes down to Cindric vs. Burton for me as the third guy. As of now, I'm not decided which way to go here. Cindric was awesome at these 1.5 mile tracks last year, but all it takes is one stupid decision or pit road mistake to set him back. As I go through some possible lineup combinations, the $600 savings by using Burton also gives a little more flexibility on filling out the lineup. It's truly a toss up here and this decision will probably go all the way until lock time for me.
• To use three studs, we're going to need some value options, so let's go over the sub $7k targets in salary order:
  • Brandon Brown - Really solid at the 1.5 mile tracks last year. He finished in the Top 15 in ten of twelve races at those tracks, including 11th and 15th at Las Vegas. In four Las Vegas races, he has not finished lower than 17th.
  • Bayley Currey - Starts 39th, but it's a Mike Harmon car. Leaning toward staying away from this, but it is an option.
  • Colby Howard - Starts 38th in a J.D. Motorsports car. These are usually more reliable than a Harmon car, but Howard blew up last week, so who knows. I prefer Howard over Currey.
  • Josh Williams - Always a rock solid play and not bad starting 24th for $6k. He should move forward a few spots and he's one of the more reliable mid-tier drivers in this series. I don't love it, but I would never fault anyone for using a safer guy like Josh in this spot.
  • Stefan Parsons, Jess Little and Matt Mills - Grouping the B.J. McLeod drivers together here because they are nearly identical plays. All should move up about 5 spots or so if all goes well. If salary were no issue, I would rank them Parsons, Mills, Little.
  • David Starr - Showed very surprising speed last week, holding on to the lead lap throughout the race. I don't think this is a Top 20 car, but he might move up a couple of spots.
  • Joe Graf Jr - Too cheap for a decent car. But Graf is never the most reliable play. He definitely has more upside than the McLeod trio, but the downside is there as well. He finished 20th and 27th last year at Vegas. Generally speaking, he was about an 18th-22nd place car at the 1.5 mile tracks last season as long as nothing went wrong. Hard to pass up at this price.

Bets
May post more Saturday closer to race time.

• Brandon Jones +1300 to win
• Myatt Snider +4000 to win - This is still way off for a top tier car starting from the pole. Closer than the +9000 jackpot we hit last week, but still too high.
• Myatt Snider +100 Riley Herbst
  
• Michael Annett -115 Brett Moffitt
  
• Justin Allgaier +115 Tyler Reddick
  
• Allmendinger EV Tyler Reddick
  

FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON ADD ON: BRET HOLMES IN BOLD BELOW
FRIDAY 5:45PM EST ADD ON: NEW H2H BETS IN BOLD BELOW

Kyle Busch makes his annual return to the Trucks Series at Las Vegas on Friday night, and we're absolutely locking him into those cash game lineups. In his last two races here, Kyle has scored 97 and 106 DK points -- leading over 100 laps and running 48 or more fastest laps in both races. Both times he started right near the front. This race he has even more upside starting 29th. We're now adding in +28 position difference to go along with a slew of laps led and fastest laps. This is a no brainer play in cash games and tournaments unless you're playing multiple tournament lineups and want to go off Kyle in a few of them to have the upper hand if he were to have a mechanical issue or get caught in a wreck.

Where to go after Kyle:

• Austin Hill and Zane Smith -- I think we can find enough value plays to lock in another position difference stud with Hill or Smith.
  • Hill won the Vegas race last Fall, although some pit road and restart magic later in the race really overshadowed the fact he was pretty bad during the first half of the race and was mired in 8th-12th place. That said, I always like Hill at the 1.5 mile tracks and he's got the perfect high floor and high ceiling combo we want. In eleven races at the 1.5 mile tracks last year, Hill had ten Top 10 finishes and seven Top 5 finishes. Pretty impressive. 
  • Smith is very talented and fast. Overall though, I feel he's a little more erratic and not quite as safe as Hill. Just comparing the records at the 1.5 mile tracks last year, Smith had only three Top 5 finishes and finished outside the Top 10 three times (although one of those was an 11th place finish). It's a very strong track record and he should finish in the Top 10. Just a tad more risk here compared to Hill.
  • I suppose you could even throw Parker Klingerman into the mix here. He has Top 10-15 upside and is slightly cheaper than Hill and Smith. I don't think he's quite as safe though because he's in lesser equipment and can get pretty aggressive. But he is cheaper and I could see a case for using him over Hill or Smith if that allows you to feel better about the value plays you can afford for the rest of your lineup.
• Connor Daly -- Real solid play, but is a bit costly. Daly ran the Fall Vegas race with this team and ran 18th. The Niece team was up and down last year, but had two strong races at Vegas with almost all of their trucks finishing in the 12th-18th range in both races. That's certainly a reasonable expectation for Daly, which would get him easily above the 5x return mark on his salary.
• Tanner Gray -- Gray was really, really good here last year. His truck was fast and he finished 8th and 3rd in the two Vegas races last year. Starting 22nd with Top 10 upside for $7k is a real strong package.
• Chase Purdy, Hailie Deegan and Ryan Truex -- I really like this $6,600 - $6,300 range as well.
  • Purdy is in a top tier GMS truck, but doesn't get the most out of it. On equipment alone, he should easily break the Top 15. A GMS truck starting 21st at $6,600 should be an auto play. Purdy is the only thing that gives you pause.
  • Deegan has been fine and a bit unlucky in her first two races this year. On equipment/speed alone, she should be able to get you +10 position difference from the 30th starting spot. She's on the same Ford team as Tanner Gray - which ran very well here last year. So I have no doubt the truck will be quick. She's not the safest play because of her inexperience (she has only raced one 1.5 mile track in the Truck Series), but she's cheap and has a pretty good floor with high upside.
  • Truex was in one of those decent Niece trucks last year and finished 12th here in the Fall. There's no reason to think he won't have Top 15 speed/upside once again. Truex is one of the more reliable pieces relatively speaking in this series.
• Tyler Hill -- Cheap, on the safe side and should be able to run about 20th. I prefer this truck when Timmy is in it, but Tyler is pretty solid in his own right. Just comparing him to some of the other targets here, he's cheaper and probably safer than drivers like Purdy and Deegan, but without quite as much upside.
• B.J. McLeod and Jesse Iwuji -- Let's be entirely clear about these trucks. They are slow. Only Jennifer Jo Cobb and Norm Benning will be slower. The reason to consider them is (1) price and (2) safety. Iwuji usually does a decent job staying low and out of the way as he gets lapped. Vegas is plenty wide, so he should have no trouble with that. B.J. is a veteran who is going to know how to manage his race and get the truck home safely. Unless it's a wreck fest, though, these trucks are not cracking the Top 30. They're cheap, can't go backwards and will give us a small (but positive) score for that last lineup spot. That's it.
• Bret Holmes -- Just playing around with some lineup combinations and I can also see using Bret Holmes. On the plus side, he did very well in the ARCA series doing his own thing and he starts 38th, so can really only go forward. On the down side, this is his first Truck race ever and this is a small, underfunded, brand new family owned team, so we have no idea how good the truck will be. Given the circumstances, I suspect Bret will take it easy, ride in the back and gain some experience while keeping the truck in one piece. That could work for cash games, but I think the upside is capped right around the B.J. McLeod level - maybe just a touch higher upside for Holmes countered by the risk of it being his and this team's very first Truck race.

Bets
I usually don't place a lot of bets until close to race time, so it's hard for me to also post here. I will try to update if I can.

• ​Kyle Busch -120 to win
• Nemechek -110 Z. Smith
• Crafton -130 Moffitt
• Friesen -130 Enfinger

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