The Duels were pretty uneventful.  A few incidents, but also a lot of single file rim riding around the top of the track.  For fantasy purposes, most of what we already talked about in our previews below is looking spot on.

First, as we've talked about, it looks like the Fords will continue to dominate at plate tracks.  In the first Duel, the Penske Fords ran 1-2-3 most of the race.  Keselowski crashed out late, but Ford still scored the win and four of the top five spots.  In the second Duel, the Fords of Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer and even Paul Menard all looked strong.  Fords will make up 6 of the Top 12 starters on Sunday.

Second, some of our under the radar driver targets looked strong.  Guys like Clint Bowyer, Trevor Bayne and AJ Allmendinger looked solid and finished in the Top 10 in the second Duel.  They will start in the top half of the field on Sunday.  In the first race, Logano and Stenhouse scored Top 5 finishes.  And Aric Almirola was crashed out when Jimmie blew the tire, but the 10 car looked good at the start and Almirola spoke very highly of the car in his post-crash interview.  In a nutshell, he said they felt they could contend for the win and that they were just riding and biding their time until the end of the race.

The closest thing we have to a new development for fantasy purposes is a few big names starting at the rear of the field Sunday after crashing out.  That gives them solid potential for bonus points for position difference from start to finish.  Guys like Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski will all start 30th or worse on Sunday.  Given his success at plate tracks, I think that moves the 2 car of Keselowski right to the top of the board.  JJ and Larson don't have the same history of success at plate tracks, but this gives them a chance to really return great value if they can avoid the big one and finish in the Top 15 or so.

We'll watch practice tomorrow, crunch some more numbers and do an updated/final driver target list on Saturday.

Finally, THANK YOU to everyone who is visiting the blog.  Traffic is picking up each day and we really appreciate it.  We're new to the scene, but think we can provide some great insights and advice.  We hope you agree.  As always, please leave comments or contact us on Twitter with your feedback.

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Here is my initial list of targets for Draft Kings games this weekend.  Many of these guys are profiled in my prior two postings listing driver targets.  I've added a few words on the new names appearing here for the first time.  I'll update this list after the Duals when we see more of how the cars look on track and know everyone's starting position:

• Brad Keselowski $10,400 -- profiled below; solidified spot with a win in the Clash
• Denny Hamlin $9,800 -- profiled below; 2nd starting position is a concern given the risk of a big loss for place differential if he were to end up in the "big one"
• Joey Logano $9,600 -- profiled below; also looked strong in the Clash
• Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. $8,900 -- profiled below 
• Clint Bowyer $8,200 -- profiled below
• Aric Almirola $7,700 -- profiled below
• Trevor Bayne $6,900 -- profiled below
• Ryan Newman $6,600 -- Top 20 in 4 of last 5 Daytona races
• Kasey Kahne $6,500 -- Top 20 in 3 of last 4 Daytona races; now with 95 team, which has run well lately at Daytona
• David Ragan $6,200 -- Two plate track wins, including one at Daytona; but he tends to do better in the July race and not as well in the 500
• AJ Allmendinger $5,900 -- profiled below; likely lock button as long as he does not start too close to the front of the field
• Michael McDowell $5,800 -- Top 15 finish and completed all laps in last 4 Daytona races; now with Front Row Motorsports, which has two series wins, both at plate tracks
• Brendan Gaughan $5,200 -- Ran the two Daytona races in the same #75 car for Beard Motorsports last year and finished 11th in the 500 and 7th in July.
• AVOID Alex Bowman $7,500 -- Way too much risk for a place differential loss starting from the 1st position.  And he does not have a lengthy history of success at Daytona.

​Pic from www.teampenske.com

​A few quick thoughts after watching the Clash today.

• Handling will be a major factor during the 500.  With only 17 cars out there today, you could still see many of the cars really struggling to stay pointed in the right direction.  The 42 of Kyle Larson in particular seemed on the edge of control the whole race and he almost wrecked several times before the last lap incident.  On the flip side, the 2 of Brad Keselowski and 22 of Joey Logano looked pretty solid throughout.
• It seemed like it was easier than the last few years to get a run on the car in front and complete a pass.  (At least until that long single file run late in the race.)  It's unclear what this could mean for the race.  It's possible someone decides to go back to an older strategy of riding around at the back of the draft the first half of the race in hopes of avoiding the "big one."
• The Fords look strong once again at a plate track, sweeping the top four finishing spots.  Remember, Fords finished 1st & 2nd in both Daytona races last year.  And a Ford car has won the last six plate track races.  Fords have shown very, very strong in those last six races:
  • October 2017 Talledaga - Fords finished 1st, 3rd, 4th & 5th
  • July 2017 Daytona - Fords finished 1st & 2nd
  • May 2017 Talledega - Fords finished 1st, 4th, 6th & 7th
  • Feb 2017 Daytona - Fords finished 1st & 2nd
  • October 2016 Talledaga - Fords finished 1st, 2nd & 5th
  • July 2016 Daytona - Fords finished 1st, 3rd, 4th & 5th
• The wreck at the end shows, once again, why playing fantasy games for plate track races is a crap shoot.  A number of drivers looked like they were having a real good run, only to have it ruined because they got caught up in a large wreck through no fault of their own.  I just hate to see those wrecks -- both as a fan and also a fantasy racing player -- but they are a fact of like at the plate tracks.  
• I continue to like several drivers I mentioned earlier this week -- particularly Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin and Austin Dillon.  We'll also need to be careful not to downgrade Stenhouse too much.  He got a tough penalty call for passing below the double yellow line, but still looked pretty fast when he was in the lead pack.

​









Pic from Nascar.com

With cars hitting the track today, I wanted to cover a few more drivers to target for the Daytona 500.

• Clint Bowyer -- Clint finished second in the most recent Daytona race in July 2017.  Dating back to 2013, he has finished in the Top 10 in six of ten races.  And he has completed all the laps in seven of those ten races.  This is a strong plate track profile.
• Denny Hamlin -- Hamlin has struggled lately at Daytona, finishing 17th, 17th and 24th in the last three races.  But the five race stretch before that was amazing.  Hamlin won the Daytona 500 in 2016.  And leading up to that were finishes of 3rd, 4th, 6th and 2nd.  So, he had a string of five Daytona races where he finished in the Top 6.  That flags him as a target to win the race each time out at Daytona.
• Austin Dillon -- Like Hamlin, Austin Dillon struggled at Daytona in 2017, with finishes of 19th and 36th.  But coming into 2017, Dillon had one of the better Daytona records.  He finished all the laps in the six prior Daytona races and finished in the Top 10 in five of those six races.  What an amazing scene it would be if the #3 were back in Victory Lane at Daytona.
• Trevor Bayne -- Here's a dark horse and contrarian pick to consider.  Bayne won the Daytona 500 all the way back in February 2011 while driving for the Wood Brothers.  Since joining Rousch Fenway in 2015, he has a mixed Daytona record.  But it is one to consider if you're looking for a lower owned driver.  He has three Top 10 finishes in the last five Daytona races and he has finished all the laps in five of the last six races.

As I mentioned in another post, guys like Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick are always going to be strong choices.  However, it usually doesn't make sense to use them at plate tracks because of the draft equalizer and the likelihood of getting caught up in "the big one".  They simply don't have the same advantages over the field that they have at other tracks.  Especially in leagues where you can use a driver only a limited amount of times during the season, I would shy away from the top championship contenders at Daytona where luck (and being in the wrong place at the wrong time) play such a big role.

With cars hitting the track for practice, qualifying and "The Clash" this coming weekend, it's time to start thinking about lineups for the Daytona 500.  First a few general concepts to remember for plate track races:

• There is always a "big one," or two, or three.  These races are notorious for having one or more huge crashes that can take out a dozen cars or more.  Part of the key to approaching a plate track race is finding guys who have a tendency to survive to the end of the race.
• Don't focus too much on practice speeds.  In practice this week, so much depends on what the drivers are working on.  Some (like Jimmie Johnson) are notorious for working on single car runs and will be at the bottom of the speed chart because of that.  Others just want to preserve their engine and other parts, so don't run much at all.  And some like to simulate race conditions and get a lot of drafting practice.  If they hit it just right, they will post a great lap time, but probably overstate their true speed and handling comfort relative to the field.  By and large, you can ignore it all and just enjoy the sight and sound of cars back on the track.  If you take anything from it, listen carefully to driver interviews or commentary to see who feels the most comfortable with their car.
• Honestly, I hate doing fantasy games for plate track races.  There is so much that is outside the driver's control and random chance plays just as much a role as anything else.  But it's been a long off-season and it's the Daytona 500, so even if it's DFS, you still can't resist, right.  I sure can't.
• Because of what I just said, I would generally advise to stay away from the big names at plate tracks.  They just don't have as big of a built in advantage as they do at other tracks because they are just as likely to get caught up in a wreck as anyone else.  And, as the saying goes, the draft is the great equalizer.  It allows the middle and lower tier teams to race right up aside the big boys.  Remember this especially in games where you have limits on the number of times you can use a driver during the season -- like the new NASCAR Fantasy Live game.  Don't burn one of your races for a top driver at a plate track.

With that said, here are a couple of drivers to focus on this coming week.  We'll add more driver targets and analysis in the coming days:

• Aric Almirola -- Been very strong at Daytona in recent years.  Won the July 2014 rain-shortened race.  Finished in the Top 15 and completed all the laps in 5 of the last 6 races at Daytona.  Did not complete all the laps in July 2015 because he got caught up in the "big one" during that race.  CAUTION -- first race with a new team, so will have to hope they have all the kinks worked out.
  
• AJ Allmendinger -- Finished 3rd in the Daytona 500 last year and 8th in the July race.  Has completed all the laps in the last 6 races at Daytona.  He has qualified poorly for most recent races, but finished the entire race and done pretty well.
  
• Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. -- Won the July race last year.  Has completed all of the laps in 9 of his 11 Cup Series starts at Daytona.  He also won at the other plate track (Talladega) last year and has a very strong record of completing all the laps there as well.  In fact, you would have to say the plate tracks are clearly his best tracks.  CAUTION -- he has finished much better in the July race than the 500. 
• Joey Logano -- Won the Daytona 500 in 2015.  After the utter disappointment of 2017, I have to imagine this team is absolutely bound and determined to come out of the box firing in 2018.  He has completed all the laps in 11 of the last 13 Daytona races and has Top 10 finishes in 7 of those 13 races.  He also has two Talladega wins in the last three years.  So he has a very strong plate track profile.