Blog Archives

chicago

6/26/2019

I mentioned last week, I won't have full coverage this weekend because of personal obligations. This will be my only write-up for Chicago. I've focused on the Trucks and Xfinity Series races because that information is harder to come by from other sources.

CUP

The one thing I'll say about the Cup race is that it's an impound race. We had a few of these earlier this year. There is no tech inspection before qualifying. Tech will be done Sunday morning and, if a car fails once, it's qualifying time is disallowed and it's official starting spot moves to the rear of the field. I think the last race we had this was Kansas and we had numerous real good cars (Truex, Logano, Elliott) go to the back and then everyone had them in their cash lineups. I can see a similar scenario playing out this weekend, so just pay careful attention Sunday before the race. Follow Bob Pockrass on Twitter as he usually is at the track watching inspection and tweeting real time what cars pass or fail tech.

TRUCKS

Let's start by identifying the guys that will likely be start and park efforts. These guys likely will not even try to run the whole race and I would not plan on using any of them.
- Joey Gase #0, Camden Murphy #8 and Joe Nemechek #87
Next, the salary savers. These are guys that should try to run the full race and have the potential to outperform their salary.
- Timmy Hill #56/$6,400 -- This is a family owned truck that Timmy and brother Tyler have run a few times this year. Timmy has been in the truck twice -- finishing 16th at Charlotte and 21st at Martinsville. Timmy has also run a few races for Joe Nemechek's #87 and Copp's #63 start and park teams. In those races, he's finished 31st, 26th and 28th. So don't get thrown off by those poor finishes. The Hill family team is totally different and attempts to run the full race -- albeit without top level speed or equipment. If Hill runs a full race, he profiles as a 16th-20th place truck and I'd easily take him over drivers like Jennifer Jo Cobb and Norm Benning who are priced around him.
- Josh Bilicki #33/$5,700 -- Josh is entered in the #33, which is a sponsored, full time Reaume Brothers team. This team also generally tries to run the full race and I'd expect them to do so this week since they have outside sponsorship. Josh was in the Reaume Bros. #34 truck at Kansas a few weeks back and brought home an 18th place finish with +7 position difference. At $5,700, he's easily my favorite salary punt play. I'd look for him to finish around 18th-20th as he did at Kansas.
- Mason Massey #32, Jesse Iwugi #34 and Spencer Davis #44 are others I will watch but fall below Hill and Bilicki coming into Friday. All three are with teams that I'd expect to try to run the full race.
  - Massey and Iwugi are both with Reaume Bros. Iwugi had a season high 17th place run at Texas earlier this season. And Massey ran his first Truck race last week, finishing 22nd. I project them as 18th-24th place trucks. (Massey doesn't appear in the player pool yet on DK, but he's on the Entry List.)
  - Davis is in the second Niece Motorsports team and is teammates with Ross Chastain this weekend. It's his first Truck series race this year, but he did five races last year in a Kyle Busch Motorsports truck. He should have decent equipment and he's got some talent. If all goes well, this could be a 14th-18th place truck.
- I'll also keep my eye on B.J. McLeod in the #1. The concern is that this team seems like a start and park and their best finish this year is 28th. The only reason I'll be watching is that it seems odd for McLeod to take this ride simply to park the truck. If they run a decent amount of laps in practice it might make him worth the risk at minimum price -- but probably only in tournaments unless we hear confirmation that it is a full race effort.
A couple of mid-range salary efforts are on my target list as well:
- Tyler Ankrum #17/$7,900 -- Ankrum is back in the #17 DGR Crosley truck this week after two start and park entries in Joe Nemechek's truck. Ankrum has been really good in the #17 this year -- with a 9th, 6th and 3rd place finish among his efforts. At the 1.5 mile tracks this year, he was 6th at Texas, 11th at Kansas and 27th at Charlotte.
- Anthony Alfredo #15/$7,500 -- Ankrum's DGR teammate Alfredo is another good option. He's got three straight Top 12 finishes -- including an 8th place finish at Charlotte and a 12th place finish at Texas in the last two 1.5 mile track races.
Top tier targets
- On the more affordable side, I really like the pricing and potential for Sheldon Creed and Brandon Jones.
  - At the beginning of the year, Creed had really good speed, but was out of control and getting in wrecks every week. He's now calmed down, is still showing good speed, and is keeping the truck pointed the right direction. In the last two races, he's finished 6th at Texas and 7th at Iowa. Before that he was 12th at Charlotte. He's definitely back on my cash game playable list.
  - Brandon Jones will be in the #51 with The Man Rudy Fugle as crew chief. Jones was in this truck earlier this year and finished 13th at Dover and 5th at Kansas. Greg Biffle won the last 1.5 mile track race running with this very same team. I expect a Top 10 finish and he has race winning potential for only $8,900.
- On the top end, I like Ross Chastain again. He's finished in the Top 10 in all six 1.5 mile track races this season. He's got great speed and is on a roll right now.
- I also like the ThorSport group:
  - Crafton has finished in the Top 6 in the last five 1.5 mile track races
  - Enfinger has five Top 10 finishes and one 11th place finish in the 1.5 mile track races this season. In two of the last three 1.5 mile races, he's led 40+ laps.
  - Rhodes has three Top 5 finishes at the 1.5 mile tracks this year and he may very well have won the last 1.5 mile race at Texas if he didn't have a transmission failure while leading that race.
  - The only ThorSport guy to struggle so far has been Johnny Sauter. He's got three straight finishes outside the Top 10 on the 1.5 mile tracks. And he's led a grand total of only 20 laps on these tracks this season.
- I've been saying it every week, but I again like Austin Hill better then most. He's finished 4th, 6th and 8th in the last three 1.5 mile track races and has scored 45+ DK points in all three of those races. He's more of a contrarian tournament play then cash game play since his ownership will probably be sub-10%.

XFINITY

High end targets:
- Really like Tyler Reddick for $10,500. He was dominant at the last 1.5 mile track in Charlotte, leading 110 laps. You'll remember that race was really hot and sunny, just like it's expected to be Saturday in Chicago. Plus, this track with a high, fast lane fits right into Reddick's style. Notwithstanding Joey Logano being in the field, I see Reddick as the top Dominator heading into the weekend.
- I like Christopher Bell as a second Dominator. He's been a beast at the 1.5 mile tracks too. He's led over 100 laps twice (Atlanta and Texas) and he's also had 25+ fastest laps in four of the five 1.5 mile track races this year.
Mid-range targets:
- Justin Haley -- Top 10 at all five 1.5 mile track races this year.
- Zane Smith -- This is a top end car that has finished in the Top 8 in four of the five 1.5 mile track races this year. Zane has four consecutive strong finishes in this car 11th at Bristol, 6th at Richmond, 9th at Dover and 5th at Iowa.
- Ross Chastain -- He is in a second Kaulig Racing car. This should be faster then the #4 car he has raced most frequently this year in the Xfinity Series. Kaulig teammate Haley has all Top 10 finishes at the 1.5 mile tracks this year.
- Jeffrey Earnhardt -- He's in the #81 car for the second time this season. This is very much a part time effort that has only run these two races with Earnhardt so far this season. In the first effort for the #81 team, Earnhardt started 14th and finished 8th at Texas.
- Riley Herbst -- This is on the risky side for sure and he'd have to qualify poorly for me to use him in cash. But $7,200 is just too cheap for a top end Joe Gibbs car no matter who is driving it. He does have two Top 10 finishes in four starts in this car between this year and last. But he does seem to struggle on the longer tracks. The two Top 10s are at Richmond and Iowa.
Cheaper targets:
- Landon Cassill -- He's in the #4 car which was driven by Ross Chastain for most of the season. Most weeks, this has been about a 12th-16th place car and I expect Landon to keep it in that range. He ran this car to a 9th place finish earlier this season at Talladega, Landon's two other Xfinity races this year were in Morgan Shepherd's start and park car, so don't get thrown off by those if you pull up his race history for this year. Notably, Landon showed excellent speed both of those weeks despite having inferior equipment. He qualified that car 13th and 16th at Charlotte and Michigan, respectively.
- Shane Lee -- This is week number two for the new #28 team. Last week at Iowa, Shane started 17th and finished 18th. Shane ran 13 races last year in the Richard Childress #3 Xfinity car. On average, he was about a 14th-18th place car in those races. I'd project this car in the 16th-20th range.
- Ray Black Jr is a bit under priced at $6,100 and better than those around him like Vinnie Miller. At the 1.5 mile tracks this season, Black has finished inside the Top 18 in 3 of 5 races. At the most recent 1.5 mile race, he ran 16th at Charlotte.
- Tommy Joe Martins at $5,400 is an option. Of late, this #99 car has been finishing about 18th-22nd on average.
- Finally, I'll be watching Ronnie Bassett Jr ($4,800) and Josh Bilicki ($4,900).
  - Bassett is in the second DGM car and we know this team tries to run the full race. In his only race on a 1.5 mile track this year, Bassett brought this car home 15th with +8 position difference at Texas.
  - Bilicki is normally a start and park but he got sponsorship this weekend for Trucks and the Xfinity Series. There's a reasonable chance he runs the full race. And when he did that a few weeks ago at Michigan, he finished 21st. Probably too risky for cash, but bears watching.
Avoid List:
- Likely start and parks -- Joe Nemechek #13, Jeff Green #38, Camden Murphy #74, Morgan Shepherd #89
- I'm also very down on the MBM group as a whole. No offense to the drivers, but this team on whole has way too many mechanical issues and start and park scenarios to make me comfortable using them in cash. I think Timmy Hill, Chad Finchum and Joey Gase are decent drivers, but there are likely to be better and more reliable options in a comparable salary range.

0 Comments

sonoma

6/22/2019

0 Comments

Had a great Truck Series race and made a ton of money. Honestly, I don't have a real good handle on how the Sonoma race is going to play out, so I'm likely to play light and just bank some of the recent winnings to use in future weeks.

There's a lot of variables that add unpredictability to this race on Sunday:

We've got a new layout that includes the carousel. This layout takes away one of the prime passing zones coming down the hill that we've seen in recent years.
We always see unique road course pit strategies because you can pit without losing a lap. Once a pit window opens, most cars will come in as soon as possible out of fear a yellow flag will come out and force them behind all the cars that pitted before them under green. One poorly timed pit call or yellow flag can upend the field. And that adds to the chaos and the chance that the fastest cars don't finish at the top.
Practice and qualifying results were all over the place.
Finally, I don't like any of the lower priced options.

So who am I looking at the most? Here's my primary target list right now:

Kurt Busch -- Five consecutive Top 9 finishes on road courses. In the last 15 road course races, he has 12 Top 10 finishes. And only once in those last 15 road courses has he finished worse than 12th. He's as solid and steady as they come on the road courses.
Clint Bowyer -- In the 5 road course races since joining SHR, Clint has 4 Top 5 finishes, including a 2nd and 3rd place finish in the two Sonoma races. In the last 15 road course races, he's got 11 Top 10 finishes and 8 Top 5 finishes. Clint had the best 10 lap average time in final practice.
Alex Bowman -- He's under priced to begin with and he finished 9th, 14th and 4th in the three road course races last year. Alex had the second best 10 lap average time in final practice.
Kyle Busch -- He's finished in the Top 7 in 8 of the last 9 road course races. In the last 4 Sonoma races he has a win, two 5th place finishes and one 7th place finish. I have no idea why his salary went down and he's now almost $1K cheaper then Harvick.
Eric Jones -- Has three Top 10 finishes in the last four road course races. He starts way back in 32nd and is pretty cheap, so I'm in on this.
Landon Cassill -- For a punt play, I'll probably go all the way down to Cassill. Hope for a finish around P30 with a +5 position difference. I just don't think any of the other guys in the $6,500 and under range offer much value or upside so I'm going to pay almost all the way down and take a guy with no risk and some (albeit limited) upside.
Jimmie Johnson really likes Sonoma. In the past 10 races there, he's got 6 Top 8 finishes and no finish worse than 13th. $8,300 is a fair price.
Kevin Harvick starting 23rd is an interesting option. He won this race and led 24 laps in 2017. Last year, he finished 2nd and led 35 laps. At his price though, it hurts what you can do elsewhere. It's much easier to build around Kyle Busch at $10,400 then Harvick at $11,200.
Martin Truex had the best car here the last two years. In 2017, he jumped out to the lead and led a race high 25 laps before blowing a motor and finishing 37th. Last year, he won the race and again led a race high 62 laps. If you take out the blown motor at Sonoma in 2017, Martin has 4 Top 5 finishes in the last 6 road course races. He's every bit on par with Kyle Busch as the best road course racer in the series.
Kyle Larson -- In the last five Sonoma races, he's started from the pole twice and from inside the Top 5 all five times. In all of those races combined, he's led a total of 11 laps. So he's failed to capitalize on great starting spots for five consecutive races here. Worse yet, his best finish in those five races is 12th and he's twice finished outside the Top 25. Kyle has speed -- like he often does -- and one day he'll capitalize on that and win here. But he's a tournament only guy for me at this time.

0 Comments

gateway trucks race

6/21/2019

1 Comment

200 miles, 160 laps under the lights at Gateway on Saturday night. It's a big hit for Johnny Sauter to be suspended for this race because he's finished in the Top 4 in all seven Truck Series races at Gateway. It's by far his best track for average finishing position and he's been by far the best Truck Series regular at this track.

Here are some other notes to keep in mind as you build your lineups Saturday evening:

Two of the last three races here have been caution filled. Both the 2016 and 2018 races saw 9 caution flags and average green flag runs in the 10-11 lap range.
We've seen high attrition rates in each of the last three races here. In 2016, only 23 of 32 trucks were running at the end of the race. In 2017, it was only 18 of 30 running at the end. And, in 2018, we had 23 of 32 running at the end. Like we said at Iowa, this opens up opportunities for slow running teams to have good days simply by running the entire race -- even if they finish multiple laps down. Jennifer Jo Cobb is a great example of this. She started 32nd last week and may have been the slowest truck out there, but she climbed up to 26th simply by outlasting the trucks that went out of the race early. The more trucks that do this, the more opportunity there is for the Cobb's and Norm Benning's of the world.
Christian Eckes ($7,100) and Chandler Smith ($7,800) are way, way too cheap and should be very highly owned. Both are in top end Kyle Busch Motorsports trucks this week.
- We saw what Smith can do last week in his first Truck Series race. He led the first 55 laps, had 40 fastest laps and was really driving away from the field in the beginning. He ran into trouble with a radio malfunction and pit road penalty, but he showed good patience working back through the field to finish 9th.
- Eckes has not been in the truck since the season opener at Daytona. He ran the race last year at Gateway. In that race, he started second and led 34 laps with 13 fastest laps before getting taking out in a wreck that was not his fault and finishing 28th. In total, he ran four short track races last year in a KBM truck. We already covered Gateway, where he finished 28th. He ran 8th at Iowa, 9th at Martinsville and 9th at Phoenix. Pretty damn good for your first four Truck Series races. He'll be in the #51 truck with ace crew chief Rudy Fugle calling the shots. There's no way he should be priced at $7,100 below the likes of Natalie Decker or Tyler Ankrum (running Joe Nemechek equipment). Expect huge ownership here.
Myatt Snider is also too cheap at $8,600. He's subbing for Sauter in the #13 truck. Snider was in this truck full time last year (although with a different crew chief), so he should be able to step right in without much fall off. He's also done very well at short tracks like this with long straightaways and slow, flat turns. There's Gateway and Martinsville that are like this. Last year, Snider ran 4th at Gateway and 6th and 3rd in the two Martinsville races. He also ran at Martinsville earlier this year in an extra Thorsport truck and finished 6th. So that's four Top 6 finishes in four races on this type of track.
Kyle Benjamin could be under priced as well at $7,600. He's very talented and in solid Niece Motorsports equipment. His "problem" so far this season has been qualifying too well. Roughly speaking, this is probably a 10th-15th place truck, but he's been qualifying in the Top 10. If he qualifies further back, he could become a real value. Of note, he ran a DGR truck twice last season at Martinsville. In the first race, he led 74 laps and finished 2nd. In the second race, he led 6 laps and finished 5th. So he's got the talent to do very well at this type of track.
I still think Austin Hill is a tad under priced at $9k. If not for the intentional wrecking and damage caused by Sauter, Hill would have nailed a Top 10 finish and hit the 40 point DK mark for the fifth straight race. It will all come down to starting position, but I would have no issue using him over the group ahead of him (Creed, Burton and Gilliland) if the situation is right. I'm probably a little higher then most on Hill, so he probably won't be very highly owned in cash games unless he qualifies very poorly. Because of that, he's probably more of a tournament only guy if you want to stay on the more conservative end in cash games.
At the top end of the salary range, Brett Moffit has done his best work this season at the short tracks. He ran 3rd at Martinsville, 2nd at Dover and 2nd at Iowa last weekend. I like his chances with Sauter out.
I don't know what to make of Ross Chastain after that situation last week. Re-watching the race, I could see the front of his truck seemed to really hug the pavement better then any other truck. I'm thinking a Top 5 run is likely but another dominating or race winning run is not. He's now priced way up, so will probably be a tournament only play.
With some of the values we already discussed, I don't think we'll have to dig too deep into the salary punt plays this week. One guy sticking out to me is Anthony Alfredo. He'll be in the #17 truck for David Gilliland's team. He's run 5 races with the DGR team this year and done reasonably well -- although he's been outperformed by Tyler Ankrum and Raphael Lessard. Overall, this #17 team is very solid. They've had four Top 10 finishes in the last six races. And two Top 10 finishes in the three short track races this year. I think he's the best upside play of the group from Natalie Decker at $7,200 on down.
As we covered with Tyler Ankrum last week, he is not running with his regular team (DGR) this week. He's in a Joe Nemechek truck because he has to start each race to remain playoff eligible. Last week in Nemechek equipment, Ankrum ran only a handful of practice laps and then retired 17 laps into the race. Keep an eye on practice laps run, but I'm expecting more of the same since sponsorship and funding is lacking here.

1 Comment

SONOMA, GATEWAY, CHICAGO SCHEDULE

6/21/2019

1 Comment

Just wanted to post some schedule notes for the articles I'll be posting for the next two weekends:

Truck Series content for Saturday's Gateway race will be posted late night Friday (6/21)
Cup Series content for Sunday's Sonoma race will be up late night Saturday (6/22)
I'll be doing one combined Chicago article that I will probably post late night Wednesday (6/26) after I get a chance to digest DraftKings pricing. I am leaving town Thursday and will not be posting anything else for Chicago. So none of the regular updates I do the night before each race.
Back to the regular schedule for Daytona the following week.

1 Comment

iowa xfinity

6/15/2019

0 Comments

We don't have a whole lot to go on here because they had only one rain shortened practice on Saturday. I'll give you the rundown on who I'm most interested in pending their qualifying spot on Sunday:

At the top end, I like Christopher Bell the best. Last year, he started the June race from the rear and came all the way through the field to finish 2nd. In July, he started 3rd, led 94 laps, and won the race. He had the best 10 lap run during Saturday's practice. He's continued to lead laps and score multiple fastest laps in almost every race this season, and I'd expect that to continue on Sunday. His success at shorter tracks like Iowa is well documented and I'm not going to bet against him despite some disappointing finishes in the last few weeks.
The other guy I like at the top is Justin Allgaier. It's no knock on Reddick or Custer -- either one of which could win on Sunday. Allgaier is just at the top of his game at Iowa. Last year in the June race, he started 11th, charged to the lead and led 182 laps on his way to the victory. In the second Iowa race last year, he finished 2nd. The year before, he also led 100+ laps. He's been showing better speed in recent weeks and has Top 5 finishes in 3 of the last 4 races.
- As between Reddick and Custer, I'd take Custer. He's been really good at the short tracks this year and Reddick was a bit off in single lap time and 10 lap average in practice on Saturday. Also, Custer did lead 104 laps in the second Iowa race last year -- although he faded to finish 9th. In four Iowa races, Reddick has yet to lead a single lap.
Still in the top range, but a bit cheaper, John Hunter Nemechek and Justin Haley are guys to keep in mind. Both participated in a tire test at Iowa earlier this year. (Bell, Reddick and Custer also participated.) All of those guys have a bit of an advantage with the extra track time -- especially since they only had 35 minutes of practice on Saturday before the rain hit.
In the middle salary range, I like Zane Smith. He's been solid in the #8 car three times this season. This is a top end ride in JR Motorsports equipment. In his three races this year, Smith has finished 11th, 6th and 9th and scored 39, 44 and 33 DK points.
I'm not really loving anyone else in the middle range.
- I always have some interest in Josh Williams because he's pretty solid, but the price has climbed to a season high $7,100. Absent a really bad qualifying spot, it can be hard to score enough to justify that salary since he lacks laps led and fastest lap upside.
- Jeremy Clements has finished in the Top 16 the last three weeks and he has Top 20 finishes in 5 of the last 6 Iowa races. But he, too, lacks laps led or fastest lap potential.
- Shane Lee is an interesting guy. He did both Iowa races in an RCR car last year and finished 16th and 13th. His is now with the new #28 team which is running its first race on Sunday. They have Circuit City sponsorship and appear to be well funded. They ran 24 laps in practice and were 15th in single lap average. They did not run 10 consecutive laps to show up on that chart. Unless they qualify way back, it's probably too risky to take him in cash games, but I wanted to mention him and the new team.
In the under $7K range, there's a few guys I might look to.
- Stephen Leicht has moved up into the top JD Motorsports car (#4) to replace Ross Chastain. He had been running pretty well lately in the #01 car, so I expect that to continue moving up to the top ride. He was 18th in single lap time during practice.
- Ray Black, Jr., Vinnie Miller and Matt Mills are other possibilities. At least we know these teams try to run a full race. Miller and Mills in particular tend to qualify very poorly so carry little risk of negative position difference.
- Possibly Tyler Matthews if he qualifies poorly. He's in the #15 car that usually has BJ McLeod in it. This is another team that seems to try to finish every race. At $5K, he might be worth the flexibility it can give you at other spots. Matthews was in this car in Richmond, where he started 23rd and finished 24th for 19 DK points. If he qualifies a bit further back, I'm more interested.
- The rest of the group is just completely hit or miss with many of the teams not buying a full allotment of tires because they're not running the whole race. I'm completely out on the MBM group (Hill, Finchum, Gase) because they've just been terrible and seem to have a major issue or employ a start and park every week.

0 Comments

iowa trucks

6/13/2019

3 Comments

A few Friday night updates in bold type:

200 laps of action for the Trucks Series on Saturday night from Iowa Speedway. It is a really compressed schedule with two practice sessions, qualifying and the race all on Saturday. I'm not going to be able to get you much information on Saturday so I'm posting these notes of some thoughts heading into the weekend:

In the last two Iowa races, there has been extremely high attrition. In 2018, only 22 of the 32 trucks were still running at the end of the race. In 2017, only 19 of the 32 trucks were still running at the end. This has allowed some back markers to score really well just by staying around to finish the race even if several laps down. Just last year, Norm Benning started 30th and finished 20th. And Jennifer Jo Cobb started 31st and finished 22nd. (Contrast the last two Iowa races with the 2016 race where 29 of the 32 trucks were still running at the end.)
- I expect the high attrition rate to continue this year because a good chunk of the field is very green in the Truck Series. By my count, we have 11 of 34 drivers that have no (or only a handful) of starts in the Truck Series -- Trey Hutchens (2 starts), Juan Gonzalez (0), Raphael Lessard (2), Daniel Sasnett (1), CJ McLaughlin (0), Mason Massey (0), Kyle Benjamin (3), Riley Herbst (5), Chandler Smith (0), Tyler Hill (1) and Lou Goss (0). The only drivers from this list I might consider for a cash game are Lessard, Benjamin, Herbst and Smith. But, even with them, they aren't overly cheap and still carry a good deal of risk. I'll most likely be looking to stick with the handful of veteran drivers priced below this group of rookies. Update: It looks like Sasnett has withdrawn, so we've got 10 of 33 drivers with little or no experience in the Truck Series.
- With 33 entries, we will have 1 Truck DNQ and a 32 Truck race field.
A lot of who to use on the top end will depend on who shows long run speed in practice on Saturday. Here are a few notes on past performance to keep in mind and help inform who you want to pick on the top end:
- Brett Moffitt won the Iowa race last year from the 16th starting spot. He led 76 laps and had 16 fastest laps. He hasn't been great the last two weeks, though, with two finishes outside the Top 10. He does, however, have a 2nd and 3rd place finish at the two shorter tracks the Trucks have raced at this season (Martinsville and Dover).
- Harrison Burton started from pole last year at Iowa, finished 3rd, led 30 laps and scored a race high 37 fastest laps. He really hasn't shown the speed you'd expect from a KBM truck this season. For the entire year, he has only 2 laps led and only 23 fastest laps run. That needs to change after seeing a retired guy like Greg Biffle come into the same equipment and win last week at Texas.
- Stewart Friesen finished 9th last year at Iowa, but had the second most laps led (48) and added 15 fastest laps.
- Johnny Sauter is coming into this race with three straight finishes outside the Top 10 this season. In the last three races, he's led a combined total of only 4 laps and run a combined total of only 12 fastest laps. He does, however, have Top 5 finishes in the last two Iowa races.
- On the flip side of Sauter, Austin Hill comes in with 4 straight Top 8 finishes this season. The team is showing good speed and Austin has scored 43 or more DK points in the last 4 races. He finished 14th at Iowa last year, but now drives with Brett Moffit's former team that won this race last year. I really like Austin this week.
- Ross Chastain is a model of consistency. He has finished in the Top 10 in all nine Truck races this year and has 40 or more DK points in every single race. A cash game staple because he usually doesn't qualify above the 10-12 range either.
- Matt Crafton has 7 straight Top 8 finishes this season and he's finished in the Top 8 in all but one race this season. Another solid (albeit more expensive) conservative cash game option.
- Grant Enfinger has 6 straight Top 9 finishes this season and he's finished in the Top 9 in all but one race this season. He also has 12+ fastest laps in 4 of the last 5 races and multiple laps led in all those races. He's scored 51+ DK popints in 4 of the last 6 races.
Here are the middle/lower tier drivers I'll be watching most closely. I've listed them in roughly the order from most likely I will use them to least likely -- given their combined salary and expected performance. So it's not a straight ranking of how well I think they'll do. Obviously, starting spot can really change up the order here:
- Jess Little -- Under priced because he doesn't run a full schedule. In the last 2 years at Iowa, he's finished 9th and 6th. He hasn't been as strong as normal this year, but he does have 38+ DK points in 2 of his last 3 races this season.
- Jennifer Jo Cobb/Norm Benning -- Very likely one of the two will be my punt/salary saver play. Possible one doesn't make the race though. If they race, they should be able to outlast many of the green rookie drivers listed above.
- I'm moving Chandler Smith up my list. He won the ARCA race on Friday night in Wisconsin. He's entered 5 ARCA races this year and won 2 of them. He's finished 3rd, 4th and 4th in the other 3. Last year, in 9 ARCA races, he had 2 wins and 6 Top 5 finishes. He's considered one of Toyota's top driver prospects and he'll be in KBM equipment. To top it off, his crew chief is Rudy Fugle, who is probably the best crew chief in the Trucks garage. Fugle has done all of Kyle Busch's races this year and was Biffle's crew chief for his win last week at Texas. For $7,000, it's a good package to get.
- Jordan Anderson -- He has 3 straight Top 15 finishes this season. He's scored 34, 42 and 44 DK points in the last 3 races. He usually races better then he qualifies, so that helps as well.
- Kyle Benjamin -- Was out early last week with a 31st place finish. He's got ability and is with a solid team (#45 Niece truck) with Chastain as a teammate. Depends on practice showing and starting spot.
- Riley Herbst and Chandler Smith (moved Smith up) -- Anyone in a KBM truck has to be in consideration. Simply put, they'll be in some of the best equipment out there. Herbst has ability -- for example, he started 9th and finished 6th at Iowa in a JGR Xfinity car last year -- but has tended to be a bit mistake prone early in his career. Smith is running his first truck race, which makes me very nervous in a cash game setting. But, he's been impressive in the ARCA series winning numerous poles and winning three races while running a part time schedule this year and last. He finished 2nd in the ARCA race at Iowa last season.
- Raphael Lessard -- He has two decent runs in KBM trucks earlier this season. He's in this race in the #17 DGR truck. This truck has 4 Top 10 finishes in the last 7 races -- including a 3rd place finish last week with Tyler Ankrum. I like Lessard's potential here, but the price is a little higher then I'd like it. Still an option depending on other value and starting spot.
- Tyler Ankrum -- would be a great value at $6,600, but it looks like he's sitting out this race for lack of sponsorship. I was using the preliminary entry list for the original write up. As a reader pointed out in the comments, the updated final entry list shows Ankrum in the 87 Truck for Joe Nemechek. I agree with the comment to use caution here. I haven't been able to find out much about this entry. If it's still Nemechek equipment, I'm not very excited about it. Watch carefully how much he runs in practice. If he runs only a few laps, it's a good indicator that it's Nemechek equipment and he's questionable at best to run a full race.

3 Comments

michigan cup

6/8/2019

0 Comments

I've got a lot of uncertainty going into this Michigan race. We don't really have good historical data because this package is so different then anything they've run at Michigan in recent years. And we don't have a lot to go on with the new package at a 2-mile track. Add it all up, and I'll probably be a little lighter then normal on Sunday because of got a lower level of confidence in my analysis of how things are most likely to play out. That said, here's how I'm currently thinking about my cash game lineup:

At the top end, Kevin Harvick and Chase Elliott are standing out to me.
- Harvick was fastest in single lap time in final practice. And, as Jeff Gordon said a few times, it looked like his car stood out from others in its ability to pass other cars on the inside without other help. I think Harvick is the top Dominator/laps led candidate.
- In six Michigan races, Elliott has finished 2nd three times and has never finished outside the Top 10. He has race winning potential and very strong position difference upside from the 17th starting spot. His car looked like it had good sustained, long run speed in final practice. Elliott has five straight Top 5 finishes overall and he's led at least 35 laps in 7 of the last 9 races overall.
- I can't fault anyone for going with Kyle Busch and/or Martin Truex here. Both also have race winning and position difference upside and strong Dominator potential. I really can't say anything bad about them and it's going to make me nervous as heck if I end up fading them both. I just liked the top two guys I mentioned a bit more. As compared to Harvick, I didn't see Busch or Truex be able to complete a solo pass underneath another good car in practice. And compared to Elliott, neither Busch nor Truex has been on such a consistent run over the past two months. They've both dominated races at times, but they've also both faltered at times in the last few months (Busch 30th at Kansas three races ago and Truex 35th last week and 19th at Kansas).
- I like Keselowski as a contrarian play in larger tournaments. I think most will focus on these other four and leave Keselowski under owned.
From there, I jump down to the group of solid options in the $7,000 - $8,500 range. I'll probably end up with 3 of them. In salary order, Alex Bowman, Eric Jones, Jimmie Johnson, William Byron and Chris Buescher all offer value and position difference upside.
- Like his teammate Elliott, Bowman has been pretty consistent of late. He's got Top 7 finishes in 4 of the last 5 races and scored 50 or more DK points in each of those four races.
- Jones was 3rd in 10-lap and 15-lap average times in final practice. Top 6 finishes in 3 of the last 4 races.
- Byron has Top 10 finishes in 3 of the last 4 races.
- Buescher has Top 14 finishes and 40 or more DK points in three consecutive races.
- For more aggressive/tournament players, Aric Almirola, Clint Bowyer and Daniel Suarez also stand out here. The entire SHR group looked very good in practice and it wouldn't surprise to see any or all of those guys in the lead at some point Sunday.
On the low end, I don't like a whole lot. I see two paths for cash games.
- If you want to/can spend up just a bit, Ty Dillon or Matt DiBenedetto is an option. Both were faster then the others in this class on the longer runs in final practice.
- Spend down on Bubba Wallace or Corey LaJoie. Bubba's been showing better speed of late and seems to punch a bit above his weight class on the drafting tracks. He was 21st last week and would be coming off even stronger back-to-back runs if not for some unlucky stuff on the track and on pit road at Charlotte. I prefer Bubba over LaJoie and wound't go under Bubba in cash unless you really, really have to do it to get a guy up top that you love.
- On the aggressive/tournament side, Daniel Hemric.

0 Comments

michigan xfinity

6/7/2019

0 Comments

Don't focus too much on prior Michigan results. Last year the teams were running the high down force, low horse power package that evolved into the current Cup Series package. This year, the Xfinity package is completely different and will race more like the old Cup Series package with speeds up to 200 mph into turns 1 and 3. In prior years, we had multiple Cup guys in the race so that skewed the results in those races too. This race has a whole different package with only one Cup guy in Paul Menard.
At the top end, Christopher Bell was very impressive in practice. He had the best single lap time by .2 second in final practice. He was down in 9th on the 10 lap average chart but I think that's because all/most of the guys in front of him had a fresh set of tires for a long run at the end of final practice. Custer and Reddick looked strong as well. Custer won the only other race on a 2-mile track this season at Auto Club in California. Bell was 3rd and Reddick was 4th (Kyle Busch was 2nd). Once again, I expect the race winner to come from the Big Three.
- I think it's possible to use 2 of the 3 and still have a strong lineup. We'll have to wait for qualifying to see where the values are and how these three qualify before making a final call.
There are numerous good targets in the $7,800-$9,200 range. A lot of who we're most interested in here will also depend on qualifying spot because they all have pretty similar profiles. Here are the guys I'm most interested in:
- Austin Cindric -- Consistently strong throughout the year. Although he hasn't led many laps or run a lot of fastest laps, he has finished the last six races in the Top 10 and has Top 10 finishes in 10 of 12 races overall this season.
- Noah Gragson -- Top 6 finishes in the last two races. This is a JR Motorsports team with a very talented young driver who may be starting to find his stride in his first full Xfinity season.
- Paul Menard -- Will be in top notch Penske equipment. Has been running this Xfinity race most years and has 6 Top 5 finishes in the last 9 Xfinity races at Michigan.
- Michael Annett -- Top 10 finishes in last three races. Showing improved speed in recent weeks.
- Jeb Burton -- Again we're talking about a top notch JR Motorsports car priced below $8K. That just shouldn't be pretty much regardless who is behind the wheel. Jeb has been in this car twice this year and finished those races 7th and 5th with 46 and 41 DK points.
The low end is tough because it's so hard to know what all the agendas are and what kind of equipment they have. That's even more important at a 2 mile track like Michigan where you need a strong and reliable engine to keep up.
- BJ McLeod and Stephen Leicht have been solid lately and generally attempt to run the full race. Both have an upside of about 18th place but most likely finishing spot around 20th-24th.
- Tommy Joe Martins might be an option too. He's been in this #99 car six times this year and has three very good finishes of 19th, 20th and 21st. The car is sponsored, so I'm pretty confident they will try to run the whole race. He finished 20th earlier this year at the 2-mile track in California.
- In the past I've been fine with Timmy Hill and Chad Finchum but they have been really inconsistent lately. Hill can be up or down but usually qualifies well enough that he will kill you with negative points if he's out early. Finchum usually doesn't qualify well, but he's also coming off three straight finishes of 30th or worse in the #42 car. I don't really trust either for cash games and am generally out on the entire MBM stable of cars right now.

0 Comments

texas trucks

6/6/2019

0 Comments

Pricing got a lot tighter in the Draft Kings truck contests this week. Some of the reliable mid-priced guys like Austin Hill, Tyler Dippel and Jordan Anderson got pretty sizable salary increases. On the flip side, we don't have Kyle Busch consuming a $15K salary spot, so that opens up some things for the rest of the roster.

Here's who I'm looking at following three practice sessions on Thursday and heading into qualifying and the race Friday night:

Johnny Sauter -- He dominated the practice sessions. In the last two sessions, he had the fastest single lap time and fastest 10 lap average. In the final practice, his 10 lap average was nearly a full mile per hour faster then the second best time -- which translates to almost .2 seconds per lap. He has three Texas wins in the last six races there. He's my top choice for dominator heading into Friday.
Stewart Friesen is the highest priced driver, but he hit the wall hard in the second practice and had to go to his back up. It's a smaller team, so I doubt their backup is capable of leading laps or running many fastest laps. He's pretty much off the board for me.
If someone is going to challenge Sauter, I think it will be Grant Enfinger. He's got three Top 4 finishes in the last five Texas races. He's been very fast at the 1.5 mile tracks all season long. In second practice he had the 2nd best single lap time. And in final practice he had the 3rd best 10 lap average.
Sheldon Creed once again has speed. He was 2nd behind Sauter in 10 lap average in both the second and final practice. He's reasonably priced at $8,600. But he's been so prone to mistakes this year. He's had the speed all year but always screws something up. Despite starting in the Top 9 in all five races at 1.5 mile tracks this season, he has only one finish better then 12th place. In 5 of 8 races overall this year, he's finished 17th or worse -- which is terrible when his truck has Top 5 speed almost every race. Unless he botches the Q run, he's too risky for me in cash games. He's a real good tournament option though because he does have the potential to lead laps and run fastest laps.
Drivers in the middle tier I'm most interested in are the KBM trio of Biffle, Burton and Gilliland. Gilliland in particular has been real solid at the five 1.5 mile tracks so far scoring between 34-49 DK points in all five races. Last year at Texas, he had Top 6 finishes and led 60+ laps in both races. Biffle worries me since he's been out of racing for several years. Burton is fine if he doesn't qualify too high.
- Kyle Benjamin is also a guy to watch. He did two Truck races last year with the DGR team and finished in the Top 5 both times. He got an inspection penalty so had to sit out a chunk of final practice -- which was real bad because it was later in the evening and was closest to what race conditions will be on Friday evening. But, in second practice, Benjamin was 3rd in 10 lap average with a time very close to the leaders (Sauter and Creed). He's got talent and is running with a pretty reliable team (Niece -- the same team as Ross Chastain). He's fairly priced at $7,800.
- Jordan Anderson, Tyler Ankrum, Gus Dean and Spencer Boyd are other guys around that price that I'd feel OK using if the qualifying spot is right.
I'm not real comfortable with anyone in the sub-$7K range.
- Cory Roper has had a couple of nice runs when he's started 20th or worse. And I'd be fine using him if he starts back there. His problem (from a fantasy standpoint) is that he's qualified in the Top 10 at half the 1.5 mile tracks he's run this year. He sat 7th in single lap time in final practice which shows he may have the speed to qualify well again. His status will all depend on that.
- Jennifer Jo Cobb is a not terrible punt option. In four races at 1.5 mile tracks this year, she's typically qualified near the back and finished +4/5 spots. She's scored 26, 19, 36 and 25 DK points in those four races.

0 Comments

pocono cup series

6/2/2019

0 Comments

Hopefully we get all 160 laps of racing at Pocono on Sunday. It looks like there's a decent chance for rain and it's a huge track to dry with no lights. So it might be a challenge if wet weather does hit. Here's where I'm focused coming into Sunday:

Kyle Busch is the top Dominator candidate. It sounded like he was riding the splitter to begin final practice. He came in quickly to fix that, and when he went back out, he put the best 10 lap sequence on the board. He's won 2 of the last 3 Pocono races and he's led at least 50 laps in 3 of the last 4 Pocono races.
Brad Keselowski had the 2nd best single lap time and 2nd best 10 lap sequence in final practice. He crashed out of the last Pocono race, but prior to that he had finished in the Top 5 in 6 consecutive Pocono races. This is one of the best teams at playing some of the unorthodox pit strategies that can win at Pocono. The only downside of his recent performance is that he hasn't led many laps even when finishing well at Pocono.
I don't know what to make of Truex. He offers race winning potential with position difference upside. But he's expensive and his practices on Friday were not great. He was 10th in single lap time during both practices, but he did not make a 10 lap run so we have no read on his long run speed. He was also quoted as saying he thinks this will be the toughest race yet to pass under green flag conditions. That sounds to me like a driver who was not happy with how his car was handling in traffic. He did win at Pocono last year and he has several Top 5s, but all those came when he was starting in the Top 5 as well. It will be much more difficult to score that kind of finish from the 20th starting spot.
There's a good group of drivers in the $8K-$9K range that have a lot of upside:
- Ryan Blaney -- He has a win here and has finished in the Top 12 in 5 of the last 6 Pocono races. 6th in 10 lap average in final practice.
- Kurt Busch -- A win, 4 Top 10s and no finishes outside the Top 20 in the last 6 Pocono races.
- Alex Bowman -- 4 straight Top 10 finishes with 50 or more DK points in those four races. Finished 3rd in the last Pocono race.
Stenhouse at $7k is a good value. I'm not sure what DK is doing with his pricing. He was $7,300 at Kansas and finished a real solid 11th place. Off that good run, his salary got dropped to $7,200 for Charlotte. He finished 5th there last week. So coming off two good runs, his salary drops again to $7k? It's even more odd since he's been halfway decent at Pocono. In the last six Pocono races, he has 3 Top 15 finishes and his worst finish is 22nd.
No one is standing out to me on the lowest tier. Guys like McDowell, Bubba Wallace and David Ragan are OK, but I really can't say you can count on anything more than maybe +4/5 position difference at best. Depending who else you want on the upper tiers, I'm also fine with saving more and dropping to LaJoie. LaJoie and Hemric are actually averaging the most DK points from this group over the last four races. Hemric is too risky for me in cash games, so I'll probably settle on LaJoie. Please don't expect another 12th place finish though. We're looking for 25th or so as a reasonable expectation.

0 Comments

chicago

sonoma

gateway trucks race

SONOMA, GATEWAY, CHICAGO SCHEDULE

iowa xfinity

iowa trucks

michigan cup

michigan xfinity

texas trucks

pocono cup series

Author

Archives

Categories