I started this blog to provide a casual, recreational level of fantasy NASCAR advice and discussion. I've been playing these contests for a number of years and am annoyed by lineup sellers and groups of players using the same lineup. I'm hoping to give the casual player some help in building solid lineups that can beat that annoying crowd most of the time. I'm not a "tout" and don't do this for a living, so proceed accordingly. I hope you enjoy the discussion here and Good Luck!
Well that was crazy. Wild crashes, lose wheels, blown tires. This race had all the chaos I predicted on Saturday night. I said right off the bat in my final pre-race update that I didn't have a lot of confidence in my picks because there was so much uncertainty going into the race. And that's exactly how it played out.
The cash lineup I posted suffered from that uncertainty. It was a loser early with Menard being collected in the Bowman spin and Truex blowing the tire. Luckily, as I recommended in my update, I also did a GPP, landed in the Top 20 with a pretty crazy lineup, and ended up with a small net gain for the weekend. I played very light with only those two entries this week. Rather than go through the race details tonight, I wanted to post a little more about the concept of becoming a winning DFS and DraftKings player by knowing when to play a light load -- like I suggested for this week. The basic idea is this -- I think I can gain an advantage on the field if I can gather good data and properly apply that data to the DraftKings scoring system. Obviously, luck will always play a big role. But, in a normal week, it is more about our ability to gather the right data and analyze it properly than it is about sheer luck. So, every week, the first question I ask is whether it is a good slate or a bad slate. I consider it a good slate if we have solid, reliable data to analyze. Having that data available makes winning and losing more about my ability to collect and analyze the data than it is about sheer luck. It's a bad slate if that data is missing and sheer luck is the main driver of winning or losing. For NASCAR, two of the most important data points are (1) relevant practice performance that week; and (2) historical performance at the track. For this weekend, we didn't have reliable data in either category. For practice data, the conditions were so cold and windy on Saturday that anything the teams could learn wouldn't really be useful for the race. Beyond that, not a lot of teams did long runs in practice -- which made for a lack of the critical 10, 15 and 20 lap average times that we rely on every week. And looking at the practice times shows they were, in fact, deceiving this week. Race winner Kyle Busch was not in the Top 10 in either Saturday practice. Practice "winners" were Daniel Suarez and Jimmie Johnson -- both of whom were long gone by the end of the race today. So the practice data this week really was garbage. We also had very limited data on historical track performance. Before last year, there was a complete repave and a major reconfiguration of Turns 1 and 2 at Texas Motor Speedway. As a result, the only relevant data we had was from the two races last year. That's much too small of a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions. There just wasn't enough information to go on. Again, take race winner Kyle Busch. Last year he finished 15th in the Spring Texas race and 19th in the Fall race. During those two races combined, he led a grand total of 7 laps. If we were going off last year's races (or this year's practice times), there is no way Kyle Busch even comes close to being in our lineup at his premium salary. So, all this left us with bad or insufficient data on two of our most critical considerations. Without that data, winning this week was going to be mostly about luck and not our ability to gather and analyze the key information. That made this a very bad slate. A good DFS player needs to have the discipline to recognize a bad slate and pullback for that day. Save your money and your aggressive plays for the days when you have good information and the ability to gain a leg up on the field. I hope that helps explain where I was coming from this week. Feel free to leave any questions or comments here or Tweet them @illinisjc
0 Comments
First, a general comment about this slate. I have a low level of confidence in the picks this week because we have so little relevant data to go off. The weather this weekend has been totally crazy and nothing like it will be for the race. Friday was mostly cloudy with temps in the 80s. Saturday was cloudy with temps in the 30s and winds blowing from the opposite direction. Race day is forecast to be in the 60s with complete sunshine. The conditions (and track) will be so different that looking at practice results is less helpful this week. Watching practice on Saturday, we heard driver after driver say that little of what they could do in practice would apply to the race since conditions will be so different.
On top of that, this is only the third race on the repaved and reconfigured surface. So, we just don't have a very meaningful history to go off either. What all this means is that you need to have the discipline to not overplay this week. Winning DFS players know they sometimes need to take a step back when there are just too many unknowns. And that's what we have for this race. I'll personally be pulling back my exposure this week to something around 50%-60% of my normal week. I'm also inclined to do more GPPs and fewer cash games because of how unpredictable this slate will be. Good luck everyone. You can Tweet any last minute questions @illinisjc Here are some notes following qualifying today:
We're back racing this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. Before we talk Texas, just a few last words about Martinsville.
My lineup cashed because of Clint Bowyer. I took a chance on a minimum salary guy in Landon Cassill because it was really the only way to get Bowyer into the lineup. I won't act like I thought Bowyer was going to dominate the second half of the race, but I did think he had a Top 5 finish in him. If you look back at my notes, I pointed out how he had great long run speed in practice and that he had great finishes at Martinsville in 2017. I hope you were on Bowyer too and cashed in two weeks ago. Now, onto Texas. We have a traditional weekend schedule this week. Friday has one practice and qualifying, Saturday has two practice sessions and Sunday has the race. Our driver targets may look a whole lot different by Saturday night. If you're looking for historical success at Texas, remember the track was repaved and reconfigured somewhat between the 2016 and 2017 seasons. The two races in 2017 are the only two races run on the current pavement and layout. Here are the drivers I'm targeting going into the weekend: Martin Truex -- We have noted repeatedly that Truex is The Man at the 1.5 mile tracks like Texas. He has six consecutive Top 10 finishes at Texas. Last year, he finished 8th in the Spring and 2nd in the Fall. He led 156 of the 668 laps run at Texas last year. He had similar results in 2016 before the repave. That year, he finished 6th in the Spring and 3rd in the Fall and led 207 of the 627 laps run. I fully expect him to lead laps and qualify and finish in the Top 10. Kevin Harvick -- Last year, Harvick finished 4th in the Spring and won the Fall race at Texas. Altogether, he led 115 of the 668 laps run at Texas in 2017. He has also finished in the Top 10 at seven consecutive Texas races. Finally, he not just won -- but absolutely dominated -- the two races run at 1.5 mile tracks so far this year. At Atlanta, he started 3rd and led 181 laps en route to his victory. At Las Vegas, he started 2nd and led 214 laps. At this point, I'm projecting Truex and Harvick as the two most likely "dominators" for the Texas race. Joey Logano -- Logano has four consecutive Top 10 finishes at Texas. Last Spring, he started 4th, led 38 laps and finished 3rd. In Fall, he started 36th, led 1 lap and finished 7th. He's been strong on the 1.5 mile tracks so far this year -- finishing 6th at Atlanta and 7th at Las Vegas. Chase Elliott -- He's due for a break through performance at some point. And Texas is a good track for him. He's run four Cup races at Texas and finished in the Top 10 all four times. Jimmie Johnson -- Jimmie has won four of the last seven Texas races, including last year's Spring race. But he has not dominated a race at Texas since 2015. Even in last Spring's win, Johnson led only 18 of 334 laps. He's definitely someone to watch, and possibly use in a large tournament, but I'm thinking there will be better plays for cash games in his expected salary range. Ryan Blaney -- Last Spring, Blaney started 2nd and led 148 laps before fading to a 12th place finish. He later finished 6th in the Fall race. I'm looking for a Top 10 finish from him this weekend and he is a dark horse "dominator" like Bowyer was two weeks ago. Kyle Larson -- Larson started at the back in the Spring race last year, but rallied for a 2nd place finish. In the Fall, he started 11th and led 74 laps before having an accident and finishing 37th. He carries risk and is probably more of a tournament play, but he too has "dominator" potential at a reduced price from the big guns. None of the cheaper lower tier drivers has a particularly strong or noteworthy history at Texas. Those low end targets will all depend on qualifying position and Saturday practice showings. We'll be back with updates as the race weekend starts to unfold on Friday and Saturday. In the meantime, hit us with any questions or comments on Twitter @illinisjc |
AuthorMy name is Steve and I've won thousands playing NASCAR fantasy racing games. This blog will share my advice for enjoying and winning your fantasy racing games. Archives
January 2023
Categories
All
|