final dover update

URGENT UPDATE -- Larson will start from the rear.  Do not use in cash games.  OK to replace with another Dominator or possibly Jimmie Johnson.

This is a tricky race to pick because it's not clear who our 1 or 2 Dominators will be.  I'm going to focus first on DraftKings and then do a few FanDuel specific notes.

Here is what I am thinking on a DK lineup build:

• Grab 2 of Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex and Kyle Busch.  A real good case can be made for every one of these guys being a Dominator.  Larson did it both races last year, but he didn't sound too confident after final practice today.  Harvick was near the top of all the speed charts Saturday and had some dominant performances here a few years back, but he wasn't great last year.  Truex has been real good the last 4-5 seasons at Dover and is probably the safest pick.  Busch won in October and has a strong history here, but has finished 36th, 30th and 16th in the last three Spring races.  If forced to chose, I would take Harvick and Truex, but I wouldn't argue with anyone who likes Larson or Busch better.
• Pick 2 salary savers from this group -- David Ragan, Kasey Kahne, AJ Allmendinger and Ty Dillon.  Ragan is the cheapest position difference option.  He starts 32nd, so he only needs to run in the Top 25 or so to make it pay off.  Kahne is always a risk, but he's shown decent speed this week and he tends to do well on the concrete tracks.  AJ and Ty offer some position difference upside.  I don't expect either to run better than 20th, but the hope is they finish the race and get you about 5-7 PD points.  My favorites are Ragan and Kahne.
• With remaining salary, grab 2 from this mid tier group -- Austin Dillon, Paul Menard, Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman.  Dillon hasn't been great here, but he starts 27th, so doesn't have to do much to return good value.  Menard starts 20th and was quite fast in final practice.  He probably carries the most risk in this group.  Bowyer was real fast in final practice.  He was fastest in 10 and 15 lap averages.  I am expecting a Top 10 with an outside chance for a Top 5 with laps led, etc.  Newman starts 21st and has a pretty solid track record here.  He often finishes in the mid-teens and occasionally slips into the tail end of the Top 10.  My favorites here are Dillon and Bowyer.
• Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Aric Almirola and William Byron are all tournament only options I am looking at in addition to the guys mentioned above.

For FanDuel, we're still in the learning process there for what works best.  I think many of the same concepts translate from our DK build this week.

• You can still get 2 of the most likely dominators
• You can grab 1 of the salary savers
• And you still probably have room for 2 of the mid-tier or tournament guys identified in the DK section

If you have any last minute question, you can tweet them @illinisjc

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