The Fantasy Nascar Guy
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I started this blog to provide a casual, recreational level of fantasy NASCAR advice and discussion.  I've been playing these contests for a number of years and am annoyed by lineup sellers and groups of players using the same lineup.  I'm hoping to give the casual player some help in building solid lineups that can beat that annoying crowd most of the time.  I'm not a "tout" and don't do this for a living, so proceed accordingly.  I hope you enjoy the discussion here and Good Luck!

new hampshire friday night update

7/21/2018

2 Comments

 
I'm going to hold most of my CUP analysis until after race practice on Saturday.  Just a few quick thoughts for tonight:
  • Kenseth starting 31st puts him in play for sure.  Great history here, albeit with a much better team.  
  • The group starting 18th-22nd is interesting -- Newman, Logano, Larson, Jimmie Johnson and Jamie McMurray.  All those guys have decent histories at New Hampshire and have the potential to be +10 position difference guys in the race.
  • Harvick starting 14th and Bowyer starting 15th also offer good upside.
  • At the front, multiple Dominator possibilities -- I think Kyle is most likely, but Truex has the 4 lap streak of 100+ laps led here, Hamlin has potential, Kurt might lead some at the beginning and it wouldn't shock me to see one of the Penskes lead at some point.
  • In short, lots of different ways to go throughout the field.

Here are some guidelines for XFINITY lineups for Saturday.  I won't have time to update after qualifying Saturday morning, so you'll have to do a bit of work just before the race to get this right:
Guideline 1 -- Focus on the front row qualifiers
  • The last six New Hampshire Xfinity races have been won from the pole.
  • In the last four races, the pole sitter has led 77, 190, 145 and 152 out of 200 laps.  That's 71% of the laps run.
  • Now add in the driver who qualified second.  Between the top two qualifiers, in the last four races, they've led a combined 179, 193, 170 and 186 out of 200 laps.  That's 91% of the laps run.
  • So stock up on whoever starts 1st and 2nd.
  • I'm pretty sure two of these three will be starting 1st and 2nd -- Brad Keselowski, Christopher Bell and Ryan Preece.  Invest heavily in any of them who starts up front.
  • Other more expensive guys I feel comfortable with if they start up front are Cole Custer, Daniel Hemric and Elliot Sadler.
  • On Keselowski, you want him no matter where he starts in all cash games and most tournament lineups.
Guideline 2 -- Get as much as you can from the Top 10 starters
  • Don't expect many drivers starting past 10th to finish in the Top 10.  Last year, the lowest qualifying position for a Top 10 finisher was 13th.  In 2016, only one Top 10 finisher qualified outside the Top 10 (17th).  In 2015, the lowest qualifying position for a Top 10 finisher was 13th.  And in 2014, the lowest qualifying position for a Top 10 finisher was 16th.
  • So stick with as many guys starting in the Top 15 as you can.
Guideline 3 -- Target these lower end guys
  • If you follow 1 and 2, you're going to need some salary savers too.  My favorites are:  Jeremy Clements, Joey Gase, David Starr, Spencer Boyd and Chad Finchum.
  • Do not use anyone priced at $5K or below.  They all likely have no intention of running a full race and will finish many laps down.
2 Comments
Joe
7/21/2018 11:45:53 am

Need a great lineup for fantasy live
Only have 1 use for truex left 3 for Kyle Busch and 0 for Harvick

Reply
Steve
7/22/2018 08:46:58 am

Kyle Busch, Eric Jones, Keselowski, Blaney, Hamlin, Kurt Busch. All had very good long run speed in practice yesterday. Can garage Truex and use him if he is dominating.

Reply



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    My name is Steve and I've won thousands playing NASCAR fantasy racing games.  This blog will share my advice for enjoying and winning your fantasy racing games. 

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