new hampshire friday night update

I'm going to hold most of my CUP analysis until after race practice on Saturday.  Just a few quick thoughts for tonight:

• Kenseth starting 31st puts him in play for sure.  Great history here, albeit with a much better team.  
• The group starting 18th-22nd is interesting -- Newman, Logano, Larson, Jimmie Johnson and Jamie McMurray.  All those guys have decent histories at New Hampshire and have the potential to be +10 position difference guys in the race.
• Harvick starting 14th and Bowyer starting 15th also offer good upside.
• At the front, multiple Dominator possibilities -- I think Kyle is most likely, but Truex has the 4 lap streak of 100+ laps led here, Hamlin has potential, Kurt might lead some at the beginning and it wouldn't shock me to see one of the Penskes lead at some point.
• In short, lots of different ways to go throughout the field.

Here are some guidelines for XFINITY lineups for Saturday.  I won't have time to update after qualifying Saturday morning, so you'll have to do a bit of work just before the race to get this right:
Guideline 1 -- Focus on the front row qualifiers

• The last six New Hampshire Xfinity races have been won from the pole.
• In the last four races, the pole sitter has led 77, 190, 145 and 152 out of 200 laps.  That's 71% of the laps run.
• Now add in the driver who qualified second.  Between the top two qualifiers, in the last four races, they've led a combined 179, 193, 170 and 186 out of 200 laps.  That's 91% of the laps run.
• So stock up on whoever starts 1st and 2nd.
• I'm pretty sure two of these three will be starting 1st and 2nd -- Brad Keselowski, Christopher Bell and Ryan Preece.  Invest heavily in any of them who starts up front.
• Other more expensive guys I feel comfortable with if they start up front are Cole Custer, Daniel Hemric and Elliot Sadler.
• On Keselowski, you want him no matter where he starts in all cash games and most tournament lineups.

Guideline 2 -- Get as much as you can from the Top 10 starters

• Don't expect many drivers starting past 10th to finish in the Top 10.  Last year, the lowest qualifying position for a Top 10 finisher was 13th.  In 2016, only one Top 10 finisher qualified outside the Top 10 (17th).  In 2015, the lowest qualifying position for a Top 10 finisher was 13th.  And in 2014, the lowest qualifying position for a Top 10 finisher was 16th.
• So stick with as many guys starting in the Top 15 as you can.

Guideline 3 -- Target these lower end guys

• If you follow 1 and 2, you're going to need some salary savers too.  My favorites are:  Jeremy Clements, Joey Gase, David Starr, Spencer Boyd and Chad Finchum.
• Do not use anyone priced at $5K or below.  They all likely have no intention of running a full race and will finish many laps down.